NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2025): 7-9 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2025): 9-7 (+$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2025): 11-5 (+$600)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2025): 12-4 (+$2,585)
2025 NFL Picks: 142-121-4 (+$4,240)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 4, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 18 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

Video of the Week: Mega Man 2 is one of the best video games of all time. Here’s a video where each of the robot masters battles each other:

Poor Flash Man. He didn’t even get a hit in during some of the matchups!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: What we saw from Drake Maye and the Patriots last week was incredible. Sure, they were battling the Jets, but still. Maye completed 90 percent of his passes and threw five touchdowns in just two-and-a-half quarters of action. Had Maye remained in the game, and the Patriots kept their foot on the gas, they would have scored 70 on the Jets with ease.

Maye will continue where he left off against the Dolphins, who struggle to stop the pass. Two weeks ago, Miami surrendered 45 points to the Bengals, so we should see that same sort of an impressive performance against Maye, who will have all the time he needs in the pocket because the Dolphins don’t generate a pass rush.

One area where the Patriots won’t excel is via the rushing attack. While the Dolphins can’t stop the pass at all, they’re still in the top 10 versus the run, so neither Rhamondre Stevenson nor TreVeyon Henderson figure to do much.

MIAMI OFFENSE: If Tua Tagovailoa were still quarterbacking the Dolphins, I’d be obligated to mention the weather. Tagovailoa can’t win in the cold, and it’s projected to be in the 20s come Sunday. Weather is impossible to predict, but that sounds about right for a January game in Foxborough.

We know Tagovailoa sucks in the cold, but what about Quinn Ewers? The rookie quarterback was born in San Antonio and made every college football start for the Texas Longhorns. And in two games thus far, he has played in Miami. Now, he’ll be playing in 20-degree weather. He already sucked, so he’s going to be even worse.

The Dolphins’ only chance of moving the chains will be via De’Von Achane, of course. The Patriots have allowed some big games to opposing backs, but the Dolphins could end up being well behind, which will remove running as an option.

RECAP: It’s not just the quarterback who struggles with the cold. The entire Dolphins team has a history of performing poorly in frigid weather. Given that Miami is coming off a win, I don’t see why it would have any interest in playing this miserable game. All of the players will be dreaming about their impending vacations in tropical climates as they decide to whiff on tackles in their final game of their failed season.

While Miami’s effort level will be very low, the Patriots will be extremely efficient once again. They know that they’re not guaranteed the No. 1 seed, but they can at least get some rest if they do what they did to the Jets last week and put up enough points to get everyone rested by the fourth quarter. Given that the Dolphins won’t want to be here, the Patriots will almost certainly be able to make that happen.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Dolphins have a bunch of key players on the injury report. I really don’t see them going all out in this game, given the frigid conditions in New England. The most recent weather reports says 27 degrees.

SATURDAY NOTES: If the Dolphins didn’t have enough problems, they’re going to be down most of their play-makers. Darren Waller is out. De’Von Achane is doubtful. Jaylen Waddle is questionable. Is it Theo Wease Jr. time!? The Patriots should be able to win this game easily.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Dolphins apparently won’t be suiting up Jaylen Waddle. This is not a certainty, but if Waddle is declared inactive, this line will probably go to -14. So, we’ll be locking in New England at -13 -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Will Campbell and Milton Williams are back for the Patriots, while Jaylen Waddle will sit. The sharps have been betting New England all week. The best line is -13.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

Will the Dolphins want to play a game in the 20s, especially after a win?

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Patriots -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Big lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 68% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Dolphins have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Patriots are 45-29 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Patriots are 16-6 ATS in the final week of the season since 2001.

Opening Line: Patriots -9.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 29 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Geno Smith is not going to be playing in this game, in all likelihood. We know that the Raiders were willing to sit players who wanted to beat the Giants, including their best defender, but the Smith absence will be injury-related.

Instead, we’ll get Kenny Pickett for another start. Pickett might have a chance against a subpar Chiefs defense if he had a blocking unit in front of him, or viable receivers at his disposal, but he doesn’t have that entering this game. The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, thanks to Kolton Miller’s continued absence, and Brock Bowers has been placed on injured reserve.

Ashton Jeanty is the lone remaining talented player on the Raiders’ offense, but he doesn’t stand a chance. Not only does he not get any blocking, but he’ll also be going up against a pretty solid Chiefs run defense.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs don’t exactly have a quality quarterback for this matchup either, and they also lack solid blocking as a result of many injuries up front. They’re down their top three tackles.

This would ordinarily be a huge problem against the Raiders because of Maxx Crosby’s presence, but Crosby has been shut down because he wanted to actually win a game. The nerve! With no pass rush on the opposite side, perhaps Chris Oladokun will have a chance to get the ball to some of his play-makers, including Travis Kelce, who could be playing his final game.

The Chiefs won’t be able to run very well on the Raiders, at least on paper. Las Vegas’ ground defense has been fine all year, but that wasn’t the case last week. Crosby, in addition to being the Raiders’ top pass rusher, was also their best run defender. With Crosby being unavailable, the Chiefs’ lackluster rushing attack might be able to get something on the ground.

RECAP: I would normally laugh at such a ridiculous spread and tell you to take the underdog. How in the world can an Oladokun-led Chiefs team be favored by nearly a touchdown? In nearly every scenario, they shouldn’t be. Nearly every scenario – except this one.

The Raiders have decided to lose on purpose. This was clear when they sat Crosby because he said he wanted to win. The Raiders didn’t want him anywhere near the field because they want the No. 1 pick in the draft, which they still need to lose to guarantee.

Given that the Raiders want to lose, we should be betting the Chiefs, even if they are quarterbacked by Oladokun. Last week, a struggling Giants team blew out the Raiders on the road, and I believe the Chiefs could do the same thing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Geno Smith didn’t practice Wednesday. If Mina Kimes were handicapping this game, she’d suddenly give the Raiders no shot. How can they possibly win without their top-10 quarterback!?

SATURDAY NOTES: Geno Smith is out, as is the Raiders’ best remaining offensive lineman, Dylan Parham. But that’s nothing compared to the Chiefs, who won’t have Trey Smith on top of their three missing tackles. Xavier Worthy will also be out, so the Chiefs won’t have any receivers remaining. Oh, and the Chiefs are also dealing with the flu! I’m removing all units from Kansas City.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is betting the Raiders. Why, though? I get the Chiefs not being worthy of being a four-point favorite, but the Raiders are losing on purpose.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trey Smith won’t play in this game, so both teams will have horrific offensive lines. The sharps are on the Raiders. The best line is -3.5 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Raiders are losing on purpose.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 56% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 19 of the last 22 meetings.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 35.5 .

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Ben Johnson has done a great job in his first year as a head coach, but his inexperience could be his downfall. We’re seeing evidence of that, given that he has stated that his starters will play in this game. For what, to battle the Packers again after barely beating them? The Packers will be rested, but Chicago’s starters will be exhausted. Johnson is making a huge mistake.

This is an easy matchup for the offense, however. It doesn’t mean that Caleb Williams won’t be at risk of being injured, but Williams will be able to torch Detroit’s beleaguered, injury-ravaged secondary with ease. The Lions haven’t been able to stop the pass whatsoever in recent weeks, even making Aaron Rodgers look like the MVP of old. Williams is red hot and will be able to spread the ball around.

The Lions have also had issues stopping the run recently. This will be problematic in this matchup, with Chicago run blocking better than most teams in the NFL. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai could both have big games.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff is great when in perfect conditions. If he’s playing indoors and battling a defense with a mediocre or worse pass rush, he looks like Peyton Manning. Goff, however, is awful when facing heavy pressure and poor conditions. He had problems with the former against the Vikings last week. This week, he’ll have to deal with the weather.

It’s impossible to know what the weather will be anywhere days ahead of time, but for what it’s worth, the weather report says it’s supposed to be 28-30 degrees and possibly rainy/snowy in Chicago. Goff won’t face any sort of pass rush because the Bears can’t get to the quarterback, but the cold and precipitation will impact Goff.

The Lions’ best chance of moving the chains is running with Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bears don’t have a good rank against the run, but they’ve been better in that regard since getting some of their linebackers back from injury.

RECAP: If the conditions were perfect, this would be the sort of shootout we saw in San Francisco on Sunday night. Neither defense can stop anything right now, while both offenses have tons of potent play-making talents.

The conditions are not perfect, however, or at least they’re not projected to be. This will be troublesome for Goff, even against a bad defense.

I like the Bears to win and cover this week. The Lions are in shambles right now, and I have to wonder if they’ll want to suit up for a game in frigid weather after being eliminated from the playoffs so recently.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I might bump this selection up to four units. The Bears undoubtedly will still be pissed about how the Lions ran up the score in the Week 2 meeting. The Lions, meanwhile, have undoubtedly packed their suitcases for their impending vacations.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are dealing with the flu right now. The Lions also have a bunch of offensive line injuries, but it’s not like the Bears can take advantage of that. Given that a part of Chicago’s locker room has the flu, I will remove all units from them. Besides, our only angle in this game was motivation, which gave me an uncomfortable feeling even before I looked at the final injury report.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have pounded the Bears up to -4.5. I get it, but I won’t be getting there.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bears at -3, -3.5, and -4, but then some pro money came in on the Lions at +4.5. The best line is -4 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

Will the Lions want to play a meaningless game in the cold?

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Bears -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 52% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Dan Campbell is 15-7 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Dan Campbell is 8-1 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Dan Campbell is 18-5 ATS as an underdog of 4+. ???

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 30 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

If you’re looking to bet legally, you can get the best sportsbook promos where you’ll get hundreds of dollars in free wagers if you sign up using the links on this page.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: “I was texting with Scott Mason, who runs the great Jets podcast Play Like a Jet a week ago. He said he was hoping Brady Cook – whom we’ve dubbed as the Chef – would start the remainder of the games so the Jets would improve their draft positioning. I told him that I hoped the Chef would start again so we could bet against him once or twice more.” I wrote this last week, and I’m apparently not alone in my sentiment. I got a text from a friend who said, “Thanks for the tip on how bad Brady Cook is. Betting against him has paid for my kids’ school tuition.”

The Chef was pathetic once again last week, but there’s actually a chance that he’ll play well this Sunday. Wait, hold on. Let me try that again. There’s a chance he’ll be not absolutely terrible this Sunday. There we go. The reason for this is that there’s a good chance the Bills will sit their starters because they can no longer win the division. Cook could actually be a somewhat functional player against backups.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills would be absolutely insane not to sit their starters because of Josh Allen’s foot injury. Allen needs rest, so playing him without an impending bye would be absolutely irresponsible.

It will almost certainly be Mitchell Trubisky in this game, and he won’t have the usual tight ends at his disposal because they’re banged up. It’s doubtful that James Cook will be put at risk either. Thus, the Jets will actually be able to limit an opposing offense for once.

RECAP: I know I’ve made it sound like we’re going to bet on the Chef, but we’re not. Don’t worry. I won’t put us in that position.

Here’s the issue: I believe the Bills will sit their starters, but Buffalo’s backups might not be worse than the Jets starters. Seriously, who’s better between the Chef and Trubisky? I think it’s obviously Trubisky. And are the Bills’ backup receivers any worse than Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie? Maybe, but I’m not really sure.

This spread is still way too high for Trubisky. I’m going to pencil in the Jets as a pick for office pool purposes, but I will not have any money on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to switch to the Bills. I still believe they’ll play their backups, but their backups are better than the losers the Jets are using right now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Apparently, Josh Allen is playing? Why? Allen isn’t even healthy, yet the Bills are suiting him and other starters up for this game. This might be proof that Sean McDermott’s mother was a Tylenol consumer. McDermott deserves to be fired for this decision because there’s no difference between the sixth and seventh seed because the Patriots and Jaguars, the two and three seeds, are equal.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is skyrocketing toward the Bills. Does someone know that Josh Allen is going to play the entire game? If so, Sean McDermott will need to be tested for a concussion.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills are resting some starters, including Dion Dawkins and Joey Bosa, so I don’t get why the sharps bet the Bills. The best line for Buffalo is a standard -12 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Bills will likely be sitting their starters.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Bills -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Tons of action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 88% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 17 of the last 24 meetings.

Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS off a loss since his second season. ???

Opening Line: Bills -14.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 20 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

I told you about my two books, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen and a Safety and a Field Goal! Well, I’ve written a third book that was released this past spring! It’s called Jerks of the College Years. If you like Jerks of the Week, you’ll like Jerks of the College Years, as it’s a collection of weirdos I wrote about during my time at Penn State.

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Nick Sirianni said he was still deciding if the starters would play this week. If there’s uncertainty, the players should not take the field because they’d risk injury after not fully preparing for a game in which they don’t know if they’re going to play. Sirianni is known to rest his starters anyway, so I wouldn’t expect Jalen Hurts and company to take the field. If they do, it won’t be for more than a quarter.

Despite Hurts’ expected absence, the Eagles should be able to move the chains a bit. They’d be matched up against a horrible defense that can’t stop anyone. Tanner McKee is one of the better backups in the NFL, while Will Shipley is known to make explosive plays.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It’s also unclear which quarterback will start for the Redskins. Marcus Mariota has a shot to play in this game, but it might be Josh Johnson again. Johnson is definitely better than the Brady Cooks and the Chris Oladokuns of the football world, as he has experience and has shown that he can move the chains on occasion.

Johnson would have an impossible task against Philadelphia’s stop unit, but the primary Eagles defenders likely will be resting. Johnson could find himself battling a similar caliber of opponent as he saw versus Dallas, or perhaps even worse. Johnson moved the chains well enough against the Cowboys to cover the spread, thanks to his two talented receivers, so he could have a similar performance in this contest.

RECAP: I’m going to lock in this pick. The line is +7, which seems absurdly high if the Eagles will rest their starters. There’s been no announcement for this yet, but I would be shocked if Sirianni played his starters more than a drive or two. Sirianni has not played his starters in meaningless games, and while the Eagles could be the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, it’s not worth risking injury to move up a spot without the benefit of clinching a first-round bye. Besides, there’s no guarantee that the Bears would even lose to the Lions, so playing starters could have absolutely no upside.

I imagine Sirianni will come to his senses soon and announce that his starters will sit, but in the meantime, we can take advantage of this high point spread. The best line is +7 -107 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m glad we locked in Redskins +7 because it’s been announced that the Eagles will sit their starters. However, Tanner McKee is better than Josh Johnson, so we’re going to come back and bet Philadelphia -4 so we can get the middle.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins won’t have three starting offensive linemen, while a fourth is questionable. I think the Eagles -4 is the right side, regardless of our middling opportunity.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad to see the Eagles drop to -3.5 because we now have a great middling opportunity. Getting a -3 would be amazing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Thanks to the sharp money coming in on the Redskins, we now have a -3 available. Let’s go! I don’t like all the sharp money on Washington, so I’m going to bet three units on the Eagles at DraftKings, which has -3 -115 available. Let’s hope the Eagles win by 4-6 points! You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Eagles may rest their starters.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

People think the Eagles will be playing their starters.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 74% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Eagles have won 13 of the last 17 meetings.

Redskins are 16-10 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997.

Opening Line: Eagles -12.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 36 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Sunday Parties, where I call out parents for having birthday parties for their kids on football Sundays.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s unusual to see the Rams struggle offensively, but that’s exactly what happened Monday night. Matthew Stafford took three sacks and threw a trio of interceptions in a surprising loss to Atlanta.

There was reason for this beyond the Falcons having an underrated defense. The Rams were missing three starting offensive linemen, including both tackles and their best interior blocker. There’s a decent chance that two could be back for this game, giving Stafford more than enough time needed to dissect an inept Arizona defense that can’t stop anyone. The Cardinals have so many injuries on this side of the ball that stopping anyone has become impossible.

Stafford may not have to do much anyway. The Rams have two solid backs, and they have a great matchup against the Cardinals’ front seven, which is in the bottom five of run defense since the midway point of the season.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Rams’ injuries extend beyond just their defense. They’re also missing four offensive linemen: two tackles and two guards. While the replacement guards haven’t been that bad, the backup tackle situation will be a nightmare against the Rams and their talented edge rush, which features Jared Verse.

Jacoby Brissett won’t have much time in the pocket, and he doesn’t have an amazing matchup with Trey McBride against a Rams defense that is solid at defending tight ends. The Cardinals also won’t be able to run the ball because they haven’t been able to do so since losing both James Conner and Trey Benson, and having a one-dimensional offense against one of the best defenses in the NFL is extremely problematic.

RECAP: I faded the Rams on Monday night, but I love them in this spot, provided they have something to play for. They’re coming off a second-consecutive loss, so they’ll be incredibly focused if this game means something. They’re also engaged in a complete mismatch. The Cardinals have so many injuries that they’re not capable of competing with good teams. We saw that last week in an embarrassing blowout loss to the Bengals, who are not nearly as good as the Rams.

I like that we’re getting a discount with the Rams because they’ve lost two consecutive games, when in reality, this will only make them more focused. Again, though, we don’t know if they’ll need this game. If the 49ers win on Saturday night, the Rams will be locked into the No. 6 seed. If the Seahawks win, they can move up to No. 5 with a victory. Now, Sean McVay said that his starters will play regardless, but for how long? If this game means nothing, then we could see Stafford and company for a half, or even a quarter.

I’ll have a definitive pick once the Saturday night result is known. If the Seahawks win, I’ll have the Rams for a big play. If the 49ers win, I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, we have to wait until Saturday night to know what we’re doing. If the 49ers win, we may just bet the Rams in the first half rather than the entire game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Once again, we’ll have to wait until Saturday night’s results. If we are going to bet the Rams, I would like Alaric Jackson to be active. He’s questionable after being limited all week. Rob Havenstein and Kevin Dotson are out, so I don’t want to bet heavily on a team missing three offensive linemen.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This was the game involving a Los Angeles team that I needed to lock in. This spread has risen to -14.5 in some places, so I’m going to lock in -14 right now for three units. The best line is -14 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Looks like we didn’t need to lock in this pick, although the sharps bet the Rams at every number below -14. The best line is -14 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: TBA.

Depends on Seahawks-49ers

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -15.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Rams -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 76% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: Rams have won 15 of the last 19 meetings.

Jonathan Gannon is 1-5 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Jonathan Gannon is 1-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Opening Line: Rams -14.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 17, including Derrick Henry over rushing yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

RESTED STARTERS: The Chargers have announced that they will rest their starters in this game. This is in contrast to last year when they played their starters despite being locked into a certain position. Thus, the Chargers won’t be very competitive, and we won’t delve into the matchups against backup scrubs.

RECAP: I thought the Chargers would play their starters like they did last year, but they’ve apparently learned their lesson. Trey Lance is a capable backup, but he won’t be playing with many other starters, so it’s hard to like his chances against the Broncos.

Then again, we can’t count on Denver covering the spread either. I think they will, but this is a team that couldn’t cover against the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs. The difference between that game and this one, however, is that the opposing coaching staff game planned for that contest. Jim Harbaugh won’t be spending energy doing so, opting instead to prepare for the playoffs.

I’m going to play the Broncos, despite their inability to cover large spreads. I’m going to assume that Harbaugh won’t be taking this game seriously, and if I’m right, the Broncos should be able to get the cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We know the Chargers will be resting players. The only injured players we know of on the Broncos are Dre Greenlaw, who was DNP with a hamstring on Wednesday, and Pat Bryant who was limited with a concussion.

SATURDAY NOTES: Dre Greenlaw is out again, but the Broncos will get Pat Bryant back on the field, which will help the offense because Bryant has been improving in the second half of the year.

LOCKED IN: This spread has soared to -14, or even -14.5 in some places. Because 14 is such an important key number, I’m going to lock in -14 before it goes to -14.5 eveywhere. You can get -14 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Broncos are -14.5 in some books, but -14 is still available, so I didn’t need to lock it in on Saturday night.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no more -14s available, as the sharps have continued to bet the Broncos. The best line now is -14.5 -110 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Chargers are resting their starters.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Broncos -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

People think the Chargers will play their starters.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 71% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

History: Chargers have won the last 3 meetings.

Jim Harbaugh is 14-6 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014. ???

Sean Payton is 14-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Pissburgh, where the Pissburgh Pirates take on the Baltimore Oroes. Guys, as you know the Colts named me their next starting quarterback, but Mother went to the coach and told him that I’m not in any position to be a quarterback in the NFL because it’s too dangerous. So, I took out an advertisement in the Yellow Pages to be able to talk to a girl because none will approach me now that I’m not a quarterback. And guess what, guys? I got a response! And not only is it a real-life girl, but she’s a princess from a city called Nigeria!

Emmitt: Thanks, Princess. I do not trust royalty since I watch the TV show Game of Thorns. In that game, John Starks get in real trouble because he stolened book from library and he can’t read, then he go in prism and they chop his head off because he not returned book, and then his son Harry becomed faceless men and his real son John Summers get into fight with Blue Guy because Blue Guy want to marry Brianna Starks, and I get a little confusioned after that but it is OK because people say this game end badlynessly.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, can you please not spoil Game of Thorns!? Mother said I can watch it one day when New Daddy says I’m old enough. Am I old enough now, New Daddy!? If not, please don’t tell me what happens!

Jay Cutler: Still too young. And the dragon lady goes nuts, and then the other guy kills someone, and then some guy is exiled to the north.

Kevin Reilly: Stop giving it away, New Daddy! Thankfully New Daddy doesn’t pay attention to specifics, or I’d really be spoiled.

Tollefson: Kevin, speaking of Game of Thorns, I have an idea for a manuscript that I want you to run by the higher-ups. Ready? A young, dashing man approaches a woman at a bar and asks her to come home with him. A very nice request, of course. She says no, because she is a vile tramp. So, the man slips a laced napkin over her face like any normal person would, and then the next thing you see, she’s waking up in his cellar, and she’s forced to cook and clean naked for him. At first she says no, but then when the man threatens to drown her in the lake, she accepts, and eventually she and the man become lovers, and then they each capture other women, and those women become their lovers as well. What do you think?

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, that sounds like it would be rated PG-13, so I wouldn’t be able to see it. But let’s go down to Clarissa Thompkins to see what she has to say. Clarissa, do you think this movie between the two lovers sounds like a good flick, and if so, could you convince Mother to let me go see it and also Game of Thorns?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Thorns. I’ve seen a screener for this movie, and I can tell you that there’s a twist in the middle part of the movie where the man attempts to chloroform a woman, but she turns out to be an undercover detective, and just when it seems as though she’ll arrest him, she falls in love with him and becomes his main wife. Back to you, Thorns.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, I-

Tollefson: Clarissa, you vile woman, how did you possibly know that!? I haven’t revealed my plot to anyone, and there is certainly no screener!

Mina Kimes: Guys, I need to interject here and declare how utterly sexist and racist it is to have such a movie. It’s so repulsive that you’d have a man capturing women to cook and clean naked for him, only to fall in love with him, and you have all of this without a strong female lead who happens to be a female Asian NFL analyst. There is little doubt that if there was a female Asian NFL analyst, she would be the best cooker and cleaner in the entire house, and she would love the man the hardest. I hope that one day I get to be in such an employ, but that is only a dream because everyone is bigoted against me, so I will never be any man’s cooker or cleaner.

Kevin Reilly: Guys, why has no one asked me about my princess yet? I guess we’ll get to it next week.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID EVERYONE HERE NEGLECT TO TALK ABOUT A PRINCESS!? I AM ANGRY ABOUT THIS BECAUSE I AM A PRINCESS, BUT NOT THE PRANCY KIND, BUT THE ONE WHO SHOWS OFF CLEAVAGE ONLINE TO GET A DATE TO A GAME. NO ONE IS MORE OPPRESSED THAN ME BECAUSE I HAD TO DO THAT. NO ONE, THAT IS, EXCEPT FOR POOR MINA KIMES, WHO WILL NEVER KNOW HOW TO COOK AND CLEAN NAKED FOR A KIDNAPPER BECAUSE SHE IS TOTALLY OPPRESSED LIKE ME BECAUSE NO ONE LIKES FEMALE ASIAN NFL ANALYSTS!

Kevin Reilly: I’m still not sure what an Asian is, but yes, we will talk about my princess next time because we’re in the talking stages anyway.

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about a “princess,” Kevin, and yes, Kevin, I put princess in quotations, Kevin, because let’s discuss other members of “nobility” that can contact us, Kevin. Let’s begin with “prince,” Kevin. How about “king,” Kevin. Take a gander at “queen,” Kevin. Have a fire-side chat about “duke,” Kevin. What do you think about “duchess,” Kevin? Care to share about “earl,” Kevin? Charge on ahead to “marquess,” Kevin. Ever hear from a “baroness,” Kevin? Is that enough quotation marks for you, Kevin?

Kevin Reilly: CHARLES DAVIS, I WILL HAVE THE LAST LAUGH, AND THEN WHEN I MARRY THE PRINCESS, I WILL LAUGH IN YOUR FACE AND STICK YOUR QUOTATIONS UP YOUR BUTT! We’ll be back right after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s about time. I can’t believe it took the Ravens this long to feed Derrick Henry the ball. It took a Lamar Jackson injury to do so, but Henry was given a complete workload last week. The result was a 200-yard outing in a demolition of the hapless Packers.

It’s unclear if Jackson will play as of this writing, so the Ravens will either have a hobbled or backup quarterback under center. The strategy should be the same. The Steelers are 20th against te run, so Henry figures to have another big performance. I wouldn’t quite expect 200 yards again, but Henry should easily top the century mark.

Henry’s tough running will make things easier for an injured Jackson or Tyler Huntley. The Steelers almost certainly won’t have T.J. Watt available, so they won’t be able to rattle either quarterback. Jackson/Huntley will be able to deploy their tight ends successfully, given that Pittsburgh surrenders the third-most production to tight ends in the NFL.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: While Watt is almost certain not to play, we know that DK Metcalf won’t be available because he’ll be serving the second game of his suspension. Without Metcalf, and also Calvin Austin, the Steelers couldn’t do anything offensively last week. They were just 3-of-15 on third down.

Aaron Rodgers will enjoy more time in the pocket this week than he did versus the Browns and their chaotic pass rush, but it may not matter if no one can get open. Metcalf torched the Ravens last time, but there won’t be anyone who can duplicate that in this game. And it’s not like Rodgers can lean on his tight ends effectively either the Ravens thrive at defending the position.

Making matters worse, the Steelers won’t have success running the ball. The Ravens rank No. 1 at defending ground attacks, so Jaylen Warren won’t gain much yardage. Perhaps Kenneth Gainwell can pick up yardage as a receiving back, but that won’t be overly consistent production.

RECAP: The Steelers won’t have their best offensive or defensive players in this crucial matchup. They’ve been able to get by without Watt, albeit against some sketchy opponents, but not having Metcalf available has really stymied the offense. It’s like last year when they didn’t have George Pickens for a stretch.

If the Steelers were battling a soft defense, they could get away without having Metcalf, but the Ravens’ stop unit is ranked ninth in EPA since the midpoint of the season. They are stout against the run, so Pittsburgh will basically have the same offensive production as it did last week.

The difference between the Cleveland game and this one is that the Ravens will actually be able to score, even if Huntley starts. Henry will dominate on the ground, while the tight ends will pick up where Harold Fannin Jr. left off last week when he got hurt.

I like Baltimore to win and cover this game, though the -3.5 line makes things tricky. Many Pittsburgh and Baltimore games are close when Jackson isn’t healthy, so I could see the Steelers keeping this close and losing by three, but I’m still going to be on Baltimore because of the Watt and Metcalf absences.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson practiced in full on Wednesday. This is highly unusual because he has always missed Wednesday’s practice. It could be a sign that he’s healthy not, but it could also be that Baltimore is lying on the injury report again.

SATURDAY NOTES: T.J. Watt is off the injury report. Interestingly enough, the line went up to Ravens -4. Phantom line movement for the sharps to hammer Pittsburgh? Perhaps. We’ll see. With Watt back, I’m less confident in the Ravens, but I still have concerns with Pittsburgh’s ability to score without DK Metcalf.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I can’t say that I’m surprised to see the sharps continue to hammer the Steelers, who are now +3. This was classic phantom line movement when Baltimore went to -4 on Friday night.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line movement on this game has been insane. The sharps bet the Steelers +4 and +3.5 heavily on Saturday night and Sunday morning, but other pro money came in on the Ravens at -3, -3.5, and -4. The best line is Baltimore -4.5 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Ravens -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 59% (157,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

John Harbaugh is 17-9 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Mike Tomlin is 67-39 ATS as an underdog.

Steelers are 45-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Aaron Rodgers is 141-105 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 34-27 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 45-29 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 25 degrees. Light wind.