2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Jets at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: “I was texting with Scott Mason, who runs the great Jets podcast Play Like a Jet a week ago. He said he was hoping Brady Cook – whom we’ve dubbed as the Chef – would start the remainder of the games so the Jets would improve their draft positioning. I told him that I hoped the Chef would start again so we could bet against him once or twice more.” I wrote this last week, and I’m apparently not alone in my sentiment. I got a text from a friend who said, “Thanks for the tip on how bad Brady Cook is. Betting against him has paid for my kids’ school tuition.”

The Chef was pathetic once again last week, but there’s actually a chance that he’ll play well this Sunday. Wait, hold on. Let me try that again. There’s a chance he’ll be not absolutely terrible this Sunday. There we go. The reason for this is that there’s a good chance the Bills will sit their starters because they can no longer win the division. Cook could actually be a somewhat functional player against backups.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills would be absolutely insane not to sit their starters because of Josh Allen’s foot injury. Allen needs rest, so playing him without an impending bye would be absolutely irresponsible.

It will almost certainly be Mitchell Trubisky in this game, and he won’t have the usual tight ends at his disposal because they’re banged up. It’s doubtful that James Cook will be put at risk either. Thus, the Jets will actually be able to limit an opposing offense for once.

RECAP: I know I’ve made it sound like we’re going to bet on the Chef, but we’re not. Don’t worry. I won’t put us in that position.

Here’s the issue: I believe the Bills will sit their starters, but Buffalo’s backups might not be worse than the Jets starters. Seriously, who’s better between the Chef and Trubisky? I think it’s obviously Trubisky. And are the Bills’ backup receivers any worse than Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie? Maybe, but I’m not really sure.

This spread is still way too high for Trubisky. I’m going to pencil in the Jets as a pick for office pool purposes, but I will not have any money on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to switch to the Bills. I still believe they’ll play their backups, but their backups are better than the losers the Jets are using right now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Apparently, Josh Allen is playing? Why? Allen isn’t even healthy, yet the Bills are suiting him and other starters up for this game. This might be proof that Sean McDermott’s mother was a Tylenol consumer. McDermott deserves to be fired for this decision because there’s no difference between the sixth and seventh seed because the Patriots and Jaguars, the two and three seeds, are equal.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is skyrocketing toward the Bills. Does someone know that Josh Allen is going to play the entire game? If so, Sean McDermott will need to be tested for a concussion.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills are resting some starters, including Dion Dawkins and Joey Bosa, so I don’t get why the sharps bet the Bills. The best line for Buffalo is a standard -12 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Bills will likely be sitting their starters.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Bills -4.

The Vegas. Edge: TBA.

Tons of action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 88% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

History: Bills have won 17 of the last 24 meetings.

Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS off a loss since his second season. ???

Opening Line: Bills -14.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 20 degrees. Light wind.