2025 NFL Picks – Week 18: Packers at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 26-48-1 heading into Week 17.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -7

Cowboys -9

Broncos -13

Steelers -3.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray! But then they went 1-3 in Week 17. Booo!

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bills -7

Chargers +12.5

Rams -3.5

Packers +6.5

Looking at these bets, it seems as though the public doesn’t recognize which teams will be sitting their starters.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers had a chance at the division last week. That ended when they lost to the Ravens, so this game no longer means anything. With “No Cookie” Jordan Love suffering a concussion recently, and Malik Willis hurting his shoulder on Saturday night, there’s a very good chance we’ll get Clayton Tune in this game.

Tune is not an NFL-caliber player, and if that weren’t bad enough, he almost certainly won’t have Christian Watson and the other veteran receivers at his disposal. Matthew Golden might play, but that’s probably it. And you can be sure that Josh Jacobs won’t see the field.

All of this would be sort of OK if the Vikings didn’t have a stellar defense, but they do. Brian Flores just befuddled Jared Goff, holding the Lions to 10 points. He’s going to have a field day with Tune.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings know all about terrible quarterbacking. They suffered through J.J. McCarthy when he embarrassed himself against some of the top defenses in the NFL, and just as he was playing better, he injured his throwing hand and had to be relieved by the anemic Max Brosmer, who scored a combined three points in his first six quarters of action.

Brosmer was marginally better last Saturday, but only because he was battling a Detroit defense that gave up. Even still, Brosmer struggled to complete basic passes. He’ll have a similar matchup this week, given that the Packers will be sitting some veterans. And it’s not like Green Bay’s defense was playing well anyhow, as the unit has been a mere shell of its former self ever since losing Micah Parsons.

The Vikings should at least be able to run the ball on the Packers. We just saw Green Bay’s defense surrender 200 rushing yards to Derrick Henry, and now the defense won’t have some veterans. Aaron Jones figures to be in for a big day in a revenge spot.

RECAP: We don’t know who will be quarterbacking for both teams. McCarthy could return from his hand injury, but Brosmer might start another game. Meanwhile, I believe Tune will make the start for the Packers, but if Willis is feeling healthy, it could be him.

I want to fade the Packers if Tune gets the nod. Tune versus Flores smells like a shutout loss.

Once we find out more information, I’ll post an update. We’ll be looking to lock in this quickly if Tune is confirmed.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has been announced about the Packers starters, but even if they go with their bench players, Malik Willis could get the nod. Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy had a limited practice on Wednesday, so we’re waiting on his status as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: Clayton Tune and J.J. McCarthy will start. This makes the Vikings an easy play. Given that the Packers will be playing their backups, this line is way too short.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a “breaking news” report this morning saying that the Packers are going to sit their starters. Uhh… wasn’t that evident back on Wednesday? The sharps have been betting the Vikings all week. The best line is -12.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Packers will be resting their starters. The Vikings are playing to have a winning record.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: None.

Computer Model: Vikings -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The public doesn’t know it’s betting on Clayton Tune.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 65% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Teams have split 4 of the past 5 years.

Packers are 69-47 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 62-49 ATS in the regular season.

Vikings are 52-42 ATS at home since 2014 (21-27 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.