NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2026 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
2026 NFL Picks: 11-16-1 (+$320)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,0550)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 20, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks - Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert and Mike McDaniel are catching heat for a performance in which the Chargers scored just 14 points against the Cardinals. However, the defense had something to do with the offensive struggles as well. The Chargers couldn't get off the field at all, as the Cardinals controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes. As a result, Los Angeles didn't run nearly as many plays as Arizona did.

If things go back to normal, the Chargers should have way more offensive success in this game. The Raiders don't get much pressure on the quarterback outside of Maxx Crosby, so Herbert should have plenty of opportunities to find his receivers for big gains. There's a chance Ladd McConkey could miss this game with an injury, but even if that occurs, Herbert has the top-notch coaching and quality weapons to keep the chains moving consistently.

Omarion Hampton should also be able to redeem himself from last week's dud performance. Hampton was guilty of a lost fumble, but he's a talented back and should have some revenge against the Raiders.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: I'm confident the Chargers can get their act together offensively. Defensively, however, is another story. Jesse Minter is gone, so it's not a surprise that the Chargers are far less potent on the defensive side of the ball.

Despite being on the field for nearly 40 minutes, the Chargers' defense registered just 12 quarterback pressures on Jacoby Brissett. Khalil Mack looked like a shell of his former self with just two pressures. Perhaps Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu will get their act together, but if they perform like they did in Week 1, Kirk Cousins will have all the time he needs to dissect a Chargers secondary that has some major flaws at cornerback. Whether or not he'll be able to do so with limited weaponary is another story.

The Chargers had issues stopping the run as well, which is not a good sign for this game. Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington combined for 143 rushing yards versus Miami, so the Chargers have their work cut out for them in regard to stopping the two Raiders backs. RECAP: There are some teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 that have no hope. For example, the Browns, Titans, and Dolphins will all be dreadful this year. The Chargers, conversely, will not. They have way too much talent on offense, and their coaching staff is elite. I'm not as confident in their defense with Minter gone, but they at least have the pieces to bounce back as long as most of the key players are healthy.

Given how terribly they were embarrassed in Week 1, the Chargers should be able to rebound in this game. If they play better than they did versus Arizona, then they'll have a good chance to cover, especially with a diminished number.

The lookahead line was Los Angeles -9.5, and yet the Chargers are now favored by just seven. Going down to the second-most prominent key number is huge if you like the Chargers. I believe that they are much better than the Raiders, so I think they'll cover the spread.

I don't anticipate betting the Chargers heavily, but they seem to be the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Raiders, dropping this line from seven to 6.5. This could be because there's some optimism about Brock Bowers being able to play.

Meanwhile, Ladd McConkey did not practice on Wednesday, so the Chargers could potentially be without one of their top receiving weapons.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ladd McConkey returned to practice Friday, albeit on a limited basis. He has a chance to play, but I wouldn't count on him being available. Meanwhile, Brock Bowers will be out for the Raiders, which is a significant loss for their offense. Outside of a couple of other minor issues, that's essentially the extent of the injury report.

Nothing here changes my opinion on the matchup. I maintain my position on the Chargers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Ladd McConkey might play, but even if he does, he'll be wearing a flak jacket to protect his rib.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ladd McConkey will play, while Brock Bowers is sidelined. The sharps took the Raiders at +7, but haven't done so at +6.5. The best line is +6.5 -115 at several places, including BetMGM and FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -9.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -8.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 51% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Raiders are 38-59 ATS after a win since 2009.

Jim Harbaugh is 14-8 ATS after a loss, excluding 2014.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: If you believe that Trevor Lawrence will struggle against Denver's defense, allow me to demonstrate what he did in last year's matchup. Lawrence went 23-of-36 for 279 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He also ran in a fourth touchdown. And this was against a Denver defense that had Jonathon Cooper on the field.

Without Cooper, the Broncos don't have as lethal of a pass rush anymore. They can still get after the quarterback with Nik Bonitto, but Lawrence should have even more time in the pocket compared to the 2025 matchup. He had no issues dissecting the Broncos last December, and I don't see why things would be different this time, especially with Denver having one fewer day to prepare.

Making matters worse for the Broncos, they showed a complete inability to stop the run on Monday night. Going against Liam Coen's rushing attack will be a nightmare scenario if that issue persists.

DENVER OFFENSE: While the Jaguars had a flawless offensive performance in the opener, the Broncos had anything but that. Their offense, outside of one drive, couldn't do anything against the Chiefs.

The main issue with Denver's scoring attack against Kansas City was Bo Nix. It's clear that Nix is not healthy. He scrambled one time for three rushing yards and didn't bother to run otherwise, which is contrary to how he usually plays.

Nix tends to scramble often when trailing, but he looked uncomfortable moving around because of his ankle injury. Nix fractured his ankle nine months ago, but it's clear that he's still not healthy. If he can't run, then he's going to be very limited as a quarterback.

I have to believe that the Jacksonville coaching staff took notice of Nix's inability to run. Given that Nix has issues connecting downfield with his receivers, the Jaguars will be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and focus on the rushing attack.

RECAP: This is an instance of spread movement that is warranted. The Broncos were three-point favorites on the lookahead line, but are now at -2.5. However, I don't think the spread moved nearly enough. I believe the Jaguars should be favored by three. That's right - the spread should be Jacksonville -3. The Jaguars better than the Broncos on both offense and defense, after all.

Jacksonville scored 34 points against Denver late last season when Cooper was on the field, while its defense limited a healthy Nix to 20 points. How many points is Nix going to score in the rematch if he can't move?

I'm going to be backing the Jaguars for a huge play. Not only are they the better team despite being an underdog; they also have the rest advantage. The Broncos have one fewer day to prepare, and I don't think they'll be able to correct their issues against this superior opponent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still can't believe the Jaguars are underdogs. Did no one notice that Bo Nix was playing injured on Monday night? Nix ran just once despite the Broncos trailing for most of the game.

That's a major departure from Nix's usual tendencies. In Denver's three losses last year, Nix averaged five rushing attempts per game. Against Kansas City, he ran just once. Given how much his mobility contributes to his effectiveness, that's a major red flag heading into this matchup.

SATURDAY NOTES: There's nothing of note on the injury report outside of R.J. Harvey potentially missing this game. However, Harvey was able to get in limited practices Thursday and Friday, so there's at least a chance he'll be available.

Regardless of Harvey's status, nothing has changed for me. I still love the Jaguars, and I'm really hoping we can get a viable +3 by Sunday afternoon. Getting Jacksonville at the key number of three would make this an even more appealing bet.

PROPS: Bhayshul Tuten is Jacksonville's clear-cut primary back, and Denver's run defense looked atrocious in the opener. I like the 50+ rushing yards +103 on DraftKings.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It looks like we might get a viable +3 with the Jaguars. I have no idea what Denver bettors are thinking here.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven't taken a side on this game. I thought we'd get a +3 -115 or so, but that hasn't popped up. There is one viable +3 available, and that is at BetMGM. The line there is +3 -125. It's OK to pay up to -127 for the ultimate key number of three.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.

Computer Model: Jaguars -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Money on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 73% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 73-117 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Sean Payton is 3-21 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 72 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys finished last week's game with high per-play metrics, but metrics don't always lead to victories. While they hit some explosive plays, they also made some crucial mistakes, including six penalties in the first 20 minutes. There was also Dak Prescott's interception just prior to halftime, which basically handed the Giants a big advantage in the game.

The Cowboys aren't coached well, so they could always repeat what they did against the Giants. But they have tons of talent and a great matchup against Washington's porous defense. The Redskins don't have much of a pass rush, so Prescott should have all the time he needs to find his talented receivers against a secondary that has several flaws.

Prescott should also have success when handing the ball to Javonte Williams. Washington had the fourth-worst ground defense in the NFL last year, and based on last week's performance, it doesn't look like it improved very much, if at all.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I really expected the Cowboys to play better defensively this year. They added talented players like Rashan Gary, Von Miller, and Caleb Downs. However, Gary had a pedestrian game against the Giants, while Miller barely played. Downs had a solid debut, but there were so many issues with the rest of Dallas' secondary that it barely mattered.

I'm willing to give the Cowboys a mulligan because the Giants have so much offensive talent. The Redskins don't have as much, and their blocking unit has some major flaws.

The Cowboys should be able to pressure Jayden Daniels, who will continue to have to rely on Antonio Williams because Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs look washed up.

Dallas doesn't have to worry about the run as much unless Daniels is the one moving the chains on the ground. The Redskins have a poor rushing attack, as Jacory Croskey-Merritt is not the same sort of threat that Cam Skattebo is.

RECAP: I believe the Cowboys will rebound from Sunday night's loss. There's so much offensive talent, while the defense should be better than it was last year, despite what we saw versus the Giants. Conversely, the Redskins have some major problems on both sides of the ball and are inferior to Dallas as a whole.

The one concern I'd have here is that the Cowboys have to travel overseas next week because they play the Ravens in Brazil. However, given that they're coming off a loss, I think they'll be more focused than they would have been had they beaten the Giants.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm considering placing a bet on the Cowboys. The Redskins are coming off an underwhelming performance despite covering the spread, yet the public is backing them at a high rate.

I love going against bad, publicly backed underdogs, and the Redskins certainly qualify. Washington wasn't particularly impressive last week, so I'm willing to fade the public enthusiasm and back Dallas with a bit of value.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys are missing a couple of defenders in the middle of their defense, with DeMarvion Overshown and Malik Hooker sidelined. Those absences are concerning, especially given some of the problems Dallas had defensively last week.

I'm still leaning toward the Cowboys, but I'm not feeling particularly good about it.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp action came in on the Redskins on Sunday morning. I'm still sticking with Dallas for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, there's sharp money on the Redskins. If you still like the Cowboys, the best line is -4 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Cowboys travel to Brazil next, but they're coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -4.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The Redskins are a big-time public dog.

Percentage of money on Washington: 60% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cowboys have won 15 of the previous 20 meetings.

Dan Quinn is 7-1 ATS in Week 2 games.

Dak Prescott is 41-35 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Cardinals limited the Chargers to only 14 points last week, which was a complete shock. They have a better defense than people anticipated, obviously, but it wasn't all them. The Chargers had several self-inflicted mistakes that prevented them from scoring more points.

If the Seahawks avoid similar errors, they'll be able to score enough points to win and cover this game. The problem is that Drew Lock will start, and he's just a middling backup at best. He beat the Patriots, but New England was going through circadian rhythms after halftime, and the Cardinals won't have such issues in this game. Lock won't be battling an exhausted Arizona defense.

Ideally, the Seahawks will allow Lock to lean on the best running back on the roster, who would be Jadarian Price. I don't know why the Seahawks ran so much with George Holani last week, but they would be better served keeping the ball in Price's hands, especially when they get inside the opposing 10-yard line. The Cardinals don't project to have a great run defense, so Price should be able to have a solid performance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals did an incredible job offensively against the Chargers. Scoring 26 points may not seem like an insane output, but Arizona was able to keep the chains moving all afternoon and simply sit on the ball for nearly 40 minutes. The frustrated Chargers could never get into rhythm.

Repeating this type of performance against the Seahawks will be much more difficult. Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL and is a much better unit than the Jesse Minter-less Chargers. The Seahawks have a great pass rush, which should be able to take advantage of the right side of Arizona's offensive line, which is quite poor. The Cardinals have a great left side of the line, but they have enough liabilities up front for Seattle to exploit.

While Jacoby Brissett will see tons of pressure, Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier won't find many running lanes either. The Seahawks were No. 1 against the run last year, so I would expect that dominance to continue.

RECAP: There's no doubt that I underrated the Cardinals. This was a huge mistake, as it cost me five units and several survivor entries on DraftKings.

However, just because Arizona beat the Chargers on the road doesn't mean that it'll suddenly defeat the Super Bowl champions. Granted, Sam Darnold won't play in this game, but great teams often perform at a high level with their backup quarterbacks. This is because great players are capable of performing at 110 percent when needed.

It helps that the Seahawks have had a week and a half to prepare for this game. This is a major advantage for an elite team like Seattle.

I don't plan on betting this game, as laying points on the road with Lock isn't very appealing. Plus, I don't want to stand in front of an Arizona train that could be even better than I currently believe it is. But I would side with Seattle before the Cardinals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are backing the Cardinals, dropping the line from 4.5 to 3.5. I guess they were very impressed by what Arizona did in Week 1, and it's easy to understand why.

The Cardinals legitimately beat the Chargers. It wasn't some fluky victory fueled by turnovers or other fortunate circumstances. Arizona outgained San Angeles in both total yardage and yards per play, so the Cardinals' upset was supported by how well they actually performed.

SATURDAY NOTES: Watch Arizona's inactives Sunday afternoon. The Cardinals could be down two of their top three cornerbacks if Max Melton is inactive after being limited in practice all week.

Arizona could also be without its top two guards. Isaiah Adams missed last week's game and is questionable after being limited all week, while Isaac Seumalo missed Wednesday's practice before being limited Thursday and Friday. If both are sidelined, that would create a concerning cluster injury along the interior of Arizona's offensive line.

This may end up being a nothing burger if everyone is active. However, if several of these questionable players are ruled out, particularly both guards or Melton, the Seahawks will have a much better chance of covering the spread.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I'm still torn on this game. This is one of the least-appealing games on the slate as far as betting is concerned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cardinals are much healthier than the injury report indicated on Friday. All of their questionable players are active. This might be why the sharps jumped on the Cardinals. The best line is -4 +100 at BetMGM. There are some -3.5s out there, but for heavy vig.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -10.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Slight lean on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 64% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Seahawks have won the last 9 meetings.

Cardinals are 52-37 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: This can't have surprised anyone, but the Dolphins were utterly atrocious in many regards last week, particularly against the run. They surrendered 143 total rushing yards to Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington.

Given how incompetent the Dolphins were in that regard, it's hard to imagine that they'll have a chance of keeping this game close. The 49ers are known for their ability to have a dominant rushing attack. Christian McCaffrey is one of the best backs in the league, while Kaelon Black was exceptional last week. Kyle Shanahan is the king of generating a dominant ground attack, so Miami figures to be gashed relentlessly in this contest.

The 49ers' ability to dominate on the ground will also make it very difficult for the Dolphins' secondary to contain Brock Purdy and all of his weapons. Miami's secondary is a disaster, so Purdy, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle shouldn't have any issues exploiting it.

MIAMI OFFENSE: We know the 49ers will be able to score easily, but will the Dolphins be able to keep up? Based on last week's results, it's highly unlikely they'll be able to do so.

Miami had just two great performances from its offensive players last week, and those came from De'Von Achane and rookie receiver Caleb Douglas. Outside of that, the whole offense was a train wreck, as the offensive line allowed 27 quarterback pressures to the Raiders, who don't have a consistent pass rusher outside of Maxx Crosby.

The 49ers should be able to generate even more pressure, especially with Nick Bosa healthier after another week of recovery. They'll be able to place plenty of heat on Malik Willis, who showed some promise in Green Bay, but his first start with the Dolphins demonstrated how difficult his new situation could be behind such a poor offensive line.

Willis will naturally want to lean on the short passing game when he's under pressure, but that won't necessarily provide an easy solution. The 49ers have one of the best linebackers in the NFL in Fred Warner, which will make it difficult for Willis to consistently attack the middle of the field.

If Tom/Bako-Bewele is out or is hindered by the injury, Love is not going to have a chance against Flores' pass rush. The Vikings won't even have to respect the running game as much, given Josh Jacobs' absence.

RECAP: With enormous edges on offense and defense, San Francisco is appealing from a betting perspective. The 49ers have a massive advantage against both levels of the defense, so there isn't an obvious way for the Dolphins to slow them down or keep up. Unless San Francisco repeatedly shoots itself in the foot, the 49ers should be able to win easily.

The question is whether or not the 49ers will be focused in this game. They're coming off a huge victory against their archrival in Australia, and they've had way more time than usual to hear about how great they were. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they come out flat in this game and make some mistakes.

However, even if they make some mistakes, they could still easily cover the spread. Keep in mind that the Raiders were guilty of some blunders, and yet they still beat the Dolphins by 14. San Francisco is obviously better than Las Vegas.

I would feel much differently about this game if the 49ers were battling a below-average opponent, but the Dolphins are the worst team in the league. They have no defense to speak of, and their offense barely has any talent. They can't block, and Caleb Douglas is their only viable downfield threat.

The Dolphins could be like the Titans last year, where fading them every week is the correct choice. Sure, they may get a lucky cover or two, but most of the time they're not going to cover.

I don't think they'll cover this spread, which is actually too low. The 49ers are favored by 13.5, but I actually made this line 15.5, so we're getting some value while also securing the third-tier key number of 14, which is actually the fourth-most likely margin of victory in an NFL game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Malik Willis popped up on the injury report with a toe issue. He practiced fully on Wednesday, so there's a chance that he's completely healthy. However, there's also a possibility that the injury could hinder him to some degree.

Given how much Willis relies on his mobility, even a minor limitation would be significant. This only makes fading Miami even more appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Dolphins will be missing Chop Robinson in this game. Robinson is one of their most talented pass rushers, so his absence would be a sad state of affairs considering Miami generated only seven quarterback pressures last week. Seven quarterback pressures. Now they're going to be without one of the few players capable of consistently getting after the quarterback.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are in much better shape. Their primary injury concern heading into this contest, not counting players already on injured reserve, is Kaelon Black. The 49ers can survive without him, considering the enormous talent disparity between these teams.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Kaelon Black is going to play, but I'd bet the 49ers regardless.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are -13.5 lines available, yet DraftKings has -12.5 -115 randomly. I'm fine going with either, but I'll just go with the -12.5. It's close. No sharp action on this game, by the way.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The 49ers are coming off a huge win in Australia.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -15.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -10.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 89% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -13.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 70 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you didn't catch it, I posted live bets during Week 1, including Jalen Hurts and Kenneth Walker over rushing yards. I'll be posting live bets on Discord because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Go to the WalterFootball Discord for those live betting updates.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs scored 31 points on the Broncos' defense in the opener. I don't think many expected this out of Kansas City's offense, given that Patrick Mahomes was coming off an injury against a well-respected defense that many (incorrectly) believe is ranked in the top five.

Mahomes, however, struggled in this game outside of some scrambles. It was Kenneth Walker who dominated Denver's defense.

We could see more of the same in this game. Derrick Henry just trampled Indianapolis' run defense, so perhaps Walker can pick up where he left off. However, the Colts have talented defensive tackles in DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, so it was a bit of a surprise that Henry was so successful in the opener. Indianapolis has the personnel to improve in this regard, so perhaps Walker won't have as huge of a performance as he did Monday night.

If Walker is at least somewhat limited on the ground, the Colts should be able to handle Mahomes, who had the third-worst accuracy in the NFL last year on passes beyond 10 yards. This put him in company with Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy, and that was before the ACL tear. Given the lack of talent at receiver, the issues on the offensive line, and Mahomes' recent injury, Kansa City's passing attack will likely continue to struggle.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Speaking of injured quarterbacks, Daniel Jones barely ran against the Ravens in the opener. This naturally adversely affected his performance, as Jones needs his legs to be a threat to opposing defenses.

Jones is just a mediocre passer at best, so if he can't move around, he's not going to be able to beat strong defenses. Fortunately for Jones, he might have an easy matchup in this game. The Chiefs don't have much of a pass rush, and their secondary is brand new. Kansas City may not even have first-round rookie cornerback Mansoor Delane, who got hurt Monday night.

The bad news for the Colts is that they rely on Jonathan Taylor, and the Chiefs tend to play better against the run than the pass. However, Taylor is great enough to overcome most matchups, so perhaps he'll have a solid game and give Jones some easier passing downs.

RECAP: I really would like to fade the Chiefs. Their win over Denver was very misleading. They won by 21, but they had to rely on many Broncos mistakes. Bo Nix was also clearly hindered by his ankle injury.

Mahomes was able to scramble, but he made several mistakes as a thrower. He continued to show the poor accuracy that has plagued him over the past two years.

The problem is that backing the Colts is also unappealing. Like Nix, Jones is not 100 percent. He scrambled just once before garbage time against the Ravens. Jones relies on his legs even more than Nix does, so if he can't move around, he's going to be very ineffective.

I'm going with the underdog here because I think this is going to be a close game between two below-average teams. However, I don't really see a good betting opportunity.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A good deal of action is coming in on the Chiefs. I would like to fade Kansas City following that misleading Monday night performance, but I can't bring myself to back the Colts with Daniel Jones nowhere near 100 percent because of his Achilles injury.

Jones relies heavily on his mobility, so backing Indianapolis while he's this limited is simply too risky, even in a spot where I'd otherwise be looking to fade the Chiefs.

SATURDAY NOTES: I'm not touching this game from a spread perspective. The Chiefs are not good enough to be 6.5-point favorites over any team outside of the bottom four in the NFL, especially if Chris Jones is out. Jones was limited in practice all week, so his status is worth monitoring.

However, backing the Colts doesn't seem appealing either because Daniel Jones is clearly not healthy. His lack of mobility was evident last week, and that's a major problem given how much he relies on his legs to be effective.

The play here is the Colts' team total under. I don't trust Indianapolis to score many points with Jones playing at less than 100 percent.

PROPS: As mentioned, I like Colts team total under. Daniel Jones is hurt, so it's going to be tough for Indianapolis to score points. The best line is under 19.5 +104 at FanDuel.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I wish these teams were playing against different opponents this week because I'd like to fade them both.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It would have been nice if some of the teams we bet were able to hold on to their leads. We're not betting on either side in this game though, but it's worth noting that the sharps are on the Colts. The best line is +6 -107 at BetRivers.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

People were impressed on Monday night.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 82% (101,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 107-32 SU, 72-65 ATS (58-51 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Andy Reid is 9-17 ATS in Week 2 games.

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 72 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

This week on ESPN, we're going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Lost Angeles, where tonight, the St. Louis Rams take on the stupid New York Giants, who should die in a fire. Guys, I learned last week that I can murder three gerbils with Mother's workout bands by declaring psychosis, so I've kidnapped five Giants fans and tied them up in Mother's basement. I'm aware that the authorities might be watching, but that's OK because I have psychosis, so I can kidnap whoever I want.

Emmitt: Thanks, Sitting Bull. If you accuse me, I busy selling thing I stealened from Naive American remservation but I must say that I does not understand psychosis. I took psychosis class in high schools and they try to tell me thing like force equal mast x volume and I wonder what the number x has to do with the volume on the TV.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, that is far too advanced for anything I'm learning in Mother's homeschool class. In yesterday's class, Mother gave me and New Daddy a quiz on the quickest routes we can take to the Bingo hall.

Jay Cutler: Oh man I definitely got an F on that test.

Kevin Reilly: New Daddy, I didn't do well either because I was so distracted by researching how to best kidnap Giants fans and torture them in Mother's basement. Even though I put research into it, I won't get into trouble because I can just claim psychosis.

Tollefson: Kevin, you may have just revolutionized my female slave disposal process. Here I am, dumping female slave bodies into the ocean for years, but now I can just claim psychosis as well, and I can just dump them into the trash, and when the cops come, I can just tell them I have psychosis, and they'll go away!

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, now you're getting it, except that I would use Giants fans as slaves instead of females because Mother says my flower hasn't bloomed yet so I can't talk to girls except if it's for work. Clarissa Thomas, that's how I can talk to you. Do you have anything to report?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Sitting Bull. Yes, I have some troubling news to report. Five Giants fans have been missing the past 48 hours, and authorities suspect that they've all been kidnapped. Back to you, Sitting Bull.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, do you listen to anything I say? I already admitted to kidnapping those five Giants fan guys! Why didn't you listen to me?

Mina Kimes: Can we just talk about how offensive and disgusting that is on so many levels? First of all, why are you asking if a woman is listening to you? Women don't have to listen to anything because they're far superior to men. And second, why are you, as a man, so above women that you can't kidnap Giants fan women? Why are you only kidnapping Giants fan guys? That may be the most sexist thing I've ever heard.

Kevin Reilly: But Mina, I have pyschosis, remember? I'm not responsible for anything I do.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! MINA, DID YOU JUST CHALLENGE SOMEONE WITH PSYCHOSIS? SURE, IT SOUNDED SEXIST THAT HE WAS ONLY KIDNAPPING MEN INSTEAD OF WOMEN, BUT FOR F**K'S SAKE, MINA, HE HAS PSYCHOSIS, SO HE CAN'T BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING HE DOES!

Kevin Reilly: Yeah, seriously, I did a lot of research here on how to kidnap people the best way. People who have psychosis and are crazy do research by looking stuff up in the encyclopedia all the time.

Charles Davis: That's a great topic, Kevin, I love talking about encyclopedias, Kevin. Let's talk about different brands of encyclopedias, Kevin. Let's begin with Encyclopedia Britannica, Kevin. Then there's World Book Encyclopedia, Kevin. What do you think about Encyclopedia.com, Kevin? Let's chat about Cambridge University Press, Kevin. Wouldn't you say Wikipedia counts, Kevin? Don't forget Routledge, Kevin. We can mention Encyclopedia Brown, Kevin. Twenty-five cents per day, plus expenses, Kevin. Sort of like your allowance, right, Kevin?

Kevin Reilly: Sure, sure, make fun of my allowance all you want, Charles Davis, but know this, I can now claim psychosis when I destroy you, so there is nothing stopping me from finally getting my sweet revenge on you! We'll be back right after this!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Based on the public action, which you can see below, everyone seems to have been impressed by what the Giants did on Sunday night, and I can't exactly blame them. The Cowboys were supposed to have a much better defense this year thanks to upgrades like Rashan Gary, Von Miller, and Caleb Downs, but Jaxson Dart and the rest of New York's offense had no issues dissecting it.

However, dominating Dallas' defense doesn't necessarily mean the Giants will have the same success against the Rams. Los Angeles won't have Aaron Donald or Myles Garrett for this game, but it still has a better defense than Dallas. The Rams can generate pressure despite those two absences, and they made huge upgrades to their secondary this offseason. They'll have much better success covering the New York receivers than the Cowboys did.

The Rams should be able to handle Cam Skattebo as well. They were ranked 11th against the run last year, which is far better than Dallas' 23rd-ranked ground defense from a year ago.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Giants had a terrific performance offensively against the Cowboys, their defense didn't look very good. Sure, they stopped the Cowboys on occasion, but Dallas was able to move the chains easily when it didn't repeatedly shoot itself in the foot.

The Rams made plenty of mistakes themselves in their loss to the 49ers, but that's actually why I expect a much sharper performance this week. Los Angeles is still one of the best teams in the NFL, and much of what went wrong against San Francisco was self-inflicted rather than the result of the Rams being outmatched. Coming off a loss in which they weren't at their best, I expect Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford to clean up those mistakes against an inferior opponent.

New York logged just 14 quarterback pressures against the Cowboys on Sunday night. Given how well Stafford is protected, I wouldn't expect the Giants to get much pressure on the reigning MVP. Stafford will have time in the pocket to dissect a Giants secondary that has some major liabilities.

The Giants are better against the run than the pass, so perhaps they'll have more success containing Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. I don't fully expect that to happen, however, given that the Rams have such a strong offensive line that should be able to open up running lanes for the two backs.

RECAP: I love betting on teams coming off embarrassing performances, and there's no doubt that the Rams were embarrassed. They were blown out by the 49ers on an international stage, and they've had more time than usual to hear about it. McVay should have a great game plan prepared, and his offense shouldn't have any issues dealing with an inferior defense.

Furthermore, we're getting line value with the Rams. They were -9.5 on the advance spread, and now they're just -7. I believe this spread should be higher than seven. I currently have it posted at -8, so there's some value with the host.

One other factor that must be considered is that the Rams will have the advantage of circadian rhythms. East Coast teams usually struggle playing on the West Coast at night, especially in the second half. Remember what happened to the Patriots in their second-half meltdown against the Seahawks. I believe the same thing could happen to the Giants, though they could be blown out in the early stages of the game. Thus, if you want to bet the Giants, do so in the first half, like we did with the Patriots.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's a ton of money coming in on the Giants, as people expect them to continue playing well after beating the Cowboys last Sunday night. The Giants could certainly cover, but if you want to bet them, I would do so in the first half.

The concern is the circadian-rhythm disadvantage. With the Giants traveling from the East Coast to play a night game on the West Coast, they could fade as the game progresses. Thus, if you like New York, the first-half spread is much more appealing than the full-game number.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are a number of key players on both injury reports right now. I'll have another update Saturday afternoon once we get our final injury report of the week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has dropped to +6.5, which is an indication that Puka Nacua won't play.

PROPS & SGP: FanDuel has a 30-percent SGP boost. We're going with Jaxson Dart over rushing yards, Terrance Ferguson over receiving yards, and Rams -6.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Puka Nacua is out, which is why the line has dropped to -6.5. Sharp money went on the Rams on Saturday morning when someone found out the news before anyone else. The best line is -6.5 -108 at BetMGM. I'm bumping this pick to three units.

MORE PROPS: DraftKings has a 50-percent boost on this game. We're going to take Isaiah Likely most receiving yards from +600 to +900.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams were just embarrassed on a national stage.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -9.5.

Computer Model: Rams -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Everyone loves the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 65% (224,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Sean McVay is 11-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Rams -7.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.