NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2026 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
2026 NFL Picks: 11-16-1 (+$320)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,0550)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 20, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks - Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

WEEK 1 RECAP: We had mixed results in Week 1 heading into Monday. We won most of our big wagers, though losing with the Chargers was painful. However, we didn't have that great of an overall Sunday because we got killed on our player props and ladders. These were a goldmine last year, but they didn't hit this week outside of Jalen Hurts' rushing yards.

One of our losses was a bad beat, as Jaxson Dart's rushing yards went under on his kneel-downs. Another instance of bad luck was when we bet Caleb Williams over passing yards and Kyle Monangai broke a 61-yard rushing touchdown, which basically ruined that wager. Jayden Daniels not running at all after we bet him was also very tilting, though I wouldn't qualify that as a bad beat.

Luckily, Monday was great. We won with the Chiefs -2 and hit a +975 prop bet. We were also two yards shy of nailing a +950 prop bet, but we at least hedged. Thanks to the Chiefs-Broncos game, we were able to win 7.4 units in Week 1.

I'll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jaguars, 5 units (win): I wish they were all this easy.

Buccaneers, 3 units (loss): I wrote a book called Year of the Bad Beat, and this would qualify. Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving lost four total fumbles, and yet the Buccaneers still had a chance to cover at the end!

Steelers, 4 units (win): Thanks to T.J. Watt for sealing this victory with a pick-six!

Chargers, 5 units (loss): What an awful bet. I ignored the likelihood of the Cardinals being much better than people thought they were.

Vikings, 5 units (win): This one looked dicey for a while, but "No Cookie" Jordan Love imploded like he always does against Brian Flores' defense.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions were definitely a disappointment offensively last week. Many expected them to have an explosive performance against a Saints defense that lost its top linebacker, but that was hardly the case. The Lions scored quickly to open the game but struggled to put together sustained offensive drives after that. However, they did score a touchdown in overtime, so that might give Detroit bettors some hope this week.

I expect the Lions to bounce back offensively. They have too much talent not to do so, and they have a nice advantage with their running game against Buffalo's ground defense. The Bills were actually able to contain David Montgomery pretty well in the second half last week, but they had the 31st-ranked run defense last year, and I don't think they did enough to fix it in the offseason.

Jahmyr Gibbs should have some big plays in this game, setting up easy passing opportunities for Jared Goff. The Bills have a better pass defense than run defense, but Goff is well protected and has so many weapons at his disposal. Plus, C.J. Stroud just enjoyed a good game against the Bills, so that might be a sign that Goff will have a strong performance as well.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Speaking of strong performances, Josh Allen had a terrific showing last week. Despite battling a tough Texans defense, he had one of the best quarterback outputs in Week 1. Allen was strip-sacked early but bounced back and had an incredible game. In fairness, he nearly threw away a potential victory with his YOLO ball into the end zone right before he threw the game-winning touchdown, but he still came through in the clutch.

Allen should continue to thrive in this matchup. The Lions are missing both safeties and have some liabilities defensively. They get after the quarterback pretty well, but Allen is protected by a solid offensive line that should give him enough time to find his weapons. D.J. Moore should excel against Detroit's secondary.

I wouldn't expect much from James Cook again, however. Cook is coming off a dud performance and is likely to have another one against a Detroit defense that has historically been much better versus the run than the pass.

RECAP: I'm not a fan of betting on Thursday night games because these contests are usually pretty putrid, as players and coaches don't have much time to prepare. I will make a case for both teams.

We're getting some great line value with the Lions, given that the spread was Buffalo -3 prior to the Week 1 games. The line is now -4.5, so we're getting a point and a half of value, all while securing the key number of three.

It's not surprising that the spread moved. The Bills had a huge win over the Texans, while the Lions struggled to put away the Saints. However, I believe Detroit was looking ahead to this game, so I wouldn't put much stock into what the Lions did last week.

I will not be betting the Lions, however, because they could be exhausted coming off their overtime battle against the Saints. If this game were scheduled for Sunday, I'd bet on Detroit. However, teams playing on Thursday coming off overtime contests have been utterly dreadful. Over the past 25 years, teams in this situation are 7-27 against the spread (1-2 ATS last year). I can't back the Lions knowing this, even with the spread value.

Our Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks each week will be in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those who are disappointed by this, but we had no choice; otherwise, we'd have to close up shop, and there'd be no picks anyway. Because of declining ad rates as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results blocking new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we needed to pivot in another direction to keep the website alive. We're not asking for much - just 30 cents per day - so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won't see any ads. This website will be incredibly fast and won't crash at all as a result of any ads.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Bills, and it might have something to do with the Lions missing two starting offensive linemen. Detroit will be without left guard Christian Mahogany and right tackle Blake Miller.

I wouldn't be too concerned about one missing blocker, but losing two starters is a different story, especially against Buffalo's pass rush. I'm going to bet the Bills for one unit.

PROPS: FanDuel has a 25-percent boost on tonight's game, up to $25. I'm going to use it on Jameson Williams to be the leading receiver, taking it from +420 to +630. In Detroit's final nine games last year, Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown were both the leading receivers four times, with the lone exception being Jahmyr Gibbs. Williams is worth it at +630.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions will be missing Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller, while the Bills will be without Ed Oliver and Ty Johnson. This injury report is worse for Detroit because of the cluster injuries along the offensive line. Not only are Mahogany and Miller out, but Cade Mays is also on injured reserve. That leaves the Lions without three offensive linemen, which is far from ideal with limited preparation time on a very short week.

This might be why the sharps are on Buffalo. The best standard line is Bills -5.5 -103 at Bookmaker, but DraftKings is offering a 50-percent profit boost on a wager of up to $100. That's exactly how much we're betting. With the boost applied, we're getting Buffalo -5.5 at +139 at DraftKings.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.

Computer Model: Bills -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The Lions are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 61% (89,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Dan Campbell is 19-5 ATS as an underdog of 4+.

NFL teams are 7-27 ATS on Thursday night coming off an overtime game since 2002.

Bills are 34-45 ATS in their last 79 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 66 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I came into this season believing the Packers were one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. One of the reasons for that is their offensive line. They have a dire situation at left tackle, while their right tackle is coming off a hiatus because he had blood clots in his lungs. As a result of these liabilities, the Packers surrendered 31 pressures to the Vikings in Week 1. As a reference, the Packers themselves had just 15 pressures against Minnesota.

The Jets can certainly get after the quarterback. They have Will McDonald and David Bailey for that. Thanks to those two, as well as others, they logged 27 pressures against the Titans. Granted, Tennessee's offensive line is a disaster, but the Packers aren't much better in that regard.

I'm sure Jordan Love will be able to connect with Christian Watson on a couple of big plays like he did last week, but the Jets have some very good personnel in the secondary, including Minkah Fitzpatrick.

New York won't have to concentrate too much on the running game either. The Packers couldn't get much going with Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd, and the Jets have upgraded their defensive front anyhow.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I was quite surprised the Packers logged 15 pressures last week. It's not a low number, and it is certainly higher than I thought they would accumulate. Micah Parsons is out, while Rashan Gary left in the offseason. The Packers don't have a viable pass rusher anymore, and this presents a huge problem for them in this matchup because the Jets have two very talented tackles, as well as an elite guard.

Geno Smith is the inferior quarterback in this matchup, obviously - don't tell Mina Kimes, please - but he'll have enough time to locate his talented weapons and maintain some consistent drives.

Meanwhile, Breece Hall should be able to pick up chunks of yardage behind his talented blockers. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason combined for 99 rushing yards last week, and Hall is better than both of them.

RECAP: How can I not be on the Jets? I believe the Packers to be one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and I think the Jets are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. Green Bay's defense is terrible without Micah Parsons, and the team hasn't won a game since he tore his ACL. Their offensive line is also in shambles. The Jets, meanwhile, signed some very talented defensive players this offseason, including Minkah Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, T'Vondre Sweat, and David Onyemata.

As a result of this overrated-underrated dynamic, I believe this spread to be way off. Green Bay is currently favored by 3.5, and yet my numbers suggest that the Jets should be favored by one. That's four-and-a-half points of value, crossing the key number of three, which makes New York very appealing.

On top of that, the Packers play on Thursday night, so they could be looking ahead to that game, given that it's a conference opponent rather than this current non-conference foe.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If there are no surprises on the injury report come Thursday, then I may lock in the Jets. I'm a bit concerned about waiting too long because the sharps could come in on New York and drop this line from 3.5 to three.

That half-point is important because it crosses the key number of three, so I'd much rather secure the Jets at +3.5 if the injury report remains clean.

SATURDAY NOTES: Minkah Fitzpatrick is out, and there's a chance Will McDonald will miss this game after being limited in practice Thursday and Friday. McDonald's absence would be significant, but I would still like the Jets even if he's sidelined.

There's a ton of money coming in on the Packers, yet it appears as though the sharps are on New York. Despite the injury concerns, I'm still comfortable backing the Jets, but this could be a reduced unit count depending what the inactives show us.

PROPS: I like Matthew Golden most receiving yards +500 at FanDuel. If you take away Christian Watson's 81-yard touchdown on a busted coverage last week, Golden would have led the game in receiving. Golden saw 12 targets, so I like the value at +500.

Breece Hall looks great at 65.5 rushing yards. He ran for 102 last week, while the Packers surrendered nearly 100 to Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones despite leading for most of the game.

We're also looking to bet David Bailey and Will McDonald over a quarter sack each because of how bad Green Bay's offensive line is.

LOCKED IN: I'm locking in the Jets at +3.5 -110 on DraftKings. The sharps have jumped on the Jets, and DraftKings is the only place I see that still has +3.5 -110 posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the questionable Packer players will be on the field, but that doesn't mean that they're 100 percent. As mentioned Saturday night, the sharps have come in on the Jets, bringing this line down to +3 in many places. You can still get +3.5 -112 at DraftKings.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Packers may look ahead to their Thursday night game.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.5.

Computer Model: Packers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Everyone on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 74% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 62-51 ATS in the regular season.

Matt LaFleur is 7-0 ATS in Week 2 games.

Opening Line: Packers -4.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Rain, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

VEGAS UPDATE: I'll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, 49-45 in 2024, and 30-54-1 in 2025.

Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:

Broncos +2.5

Bears -3

Chargers -9.5

Ravens -3.5

Eagles -6

The public went 2-3 in Week 1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Eagles -7.5

Lions +4.5

Buccaneers -8.5

Panthers -1.5

Giants +7

No surprise here, as four of the five teams won in Week 1, and the lone exception is playing the Browns. I guess everyone was impressed by the Giants on Sunday night.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Year one in Ben Johnson's offense was a godsend for Caleb Williams, who had a rocky rookie year. Now, Williams seems unstoppable in Year 2 of Johnson's offense. Granted, it was just one game against the Panthers, but Carolina was supposed to have a better defense this year with two major upgrades.

Despite the additions of Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips, Williams looked like the MVP frontrunner last week. The Bears scored 59 points and could have easily gotten into the 70s if they hadn't taken their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter.

Chicago will be taking on a better defense this week in the Vikings, but I still trust Johnson to come up with a great game plan. They'll need to prevent Dallas Turner from doing too much damage as a pass rusher after he logged nine pressures last week, but the Vikings have some weaknesses in the secondary, so I expect Johnson to be able to exploit those liabilities.

I don't expect the Bears to have as much success running the ball this week, however. The Vikings figure to be stout against the run, so D'Andre Swift won't have another amazing game like he did last week.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: For those of you who aren't old enough to remember the Greatest Show on Turf, the Rams had an unbelievable offense that set records. Their offense in 2000 was especially lethal, but they didn't get to the Super Bowl that year because their defense was so terrible. This Bears team could be exactly like the 2000 Rams. If you want to see the sort of damage they caused, check out this short video:

The 2000 Rams had a record-setting offense but were held back by a miserable defense. This is why that Rams team was the only one that didn't go to the Super Bowl during their three-year span of dominance, despite having the best offense of the three seasons.

The Bears, likewise, could be held back by their horrible defense. Montez Sweat is the only consistent pass rusher they have, so Carson Wentz could have plenty of time in the pocket. The problem is that Wentz is the quarterback, and he's a shell of his former self. He struggled for most of last week's victory over the Packers and had to be helped by multiple defensive penalties to take the lead late in the game.

I simply don't trust Wentz to successfully engage the Bears in a shootout. His performance could mirror what we saw out of Bryce Young last week: some great plays, but not nearly enough.

RECAP: You could argue that there is great line value on the Vikings in this game. The Bears were -3 on the lookahead spread, and now they're favored by 5.5. That's quite the jump for one week of action.

However, I would argue that the spread hasn't moved enough. My line for this game is Chicago -7.5, so I believe we're on the wrong side of the key number of seven.

The Bears have a miserable defense, but they could have the best offense in the NFL. If I had any faith in Wentz being able to compete in a shootout, I would take the Vikings to cover the spread, as they could be live for a backdoor cover. However, Wentz is not nearly the great quarterback he once was back in 2017. He's not good anymore, and last week's performance was painful to watch despite the fact that Minnesota won.

I believe that, like the Panthers last week, the Vikings will score a high number of points. However, it won't be enough to stay within the spread.

I think the Bears are the play for anything less than a touchdown.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: D'Andre Swift popped up on the injury report, but if he misses this game, I'm not too concerned because the Bears have a quality backup in Kyle Monangai.

However, Monangai is also on the injury report, so the situation is worth monitoring. If both running backs are sidelined, that would certainly diminish the Bears' chances of covering the spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: It turns out that DeAndre Swift is just fine. In fact, Chicago doesn't have a single player with an injury designation, so there are no health concerns with the Bears heading into this matchup.

Conversely, the Vikings could be without Brian O'Neill after he didn't practice Thursday and was limited Friday. Even if O'Neill misses this game, I'm not overly concerned because it would be just one offensive line injury rather than a cluster of absences up front.

I'm still leaning toward the Bears, but I don't plan on betting any units on this game.

PROPS: Colston Loveland did nothing last week, but I expect him to rebound in a great matchup. I think he can go as high as 80 or 90 receiving yards. I may bet those figures live.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There's no sharp action coming in on either side, which is not surprising. The best line, if you like the Bears, is -4.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.

Computer Model: Bears -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Decent action on the Bears.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 65% (118,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Opening Line: Bears -5.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 65 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

HATE MAIL: We're going to post hate mail here this year.

This guy was upset that I didn't grade the Michael Mayer signing higher:

Imagine defending a huge contract given to a backup tight end. This guy called me retarded, but he must have been looking in the mirror.

Speaking of the word "retard," this guy was upset that I used the word on X a few times:

It truly is a sad life if you're this upset about jokes.

Here's someone who doesn't like the pay wall:

I get people being upset this, but calling me a "cuck" for it is funny.

Here's another:

I love how this guy thinks we lost $5,000 last year when we were up much more than that!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Drake Maye has gotten lots of flak for how he performed against the Seahawks. He had a poor game, but to be fair, if A.J. Brown hadn't gotten injured and if Romeo Doubs hadn't dropped a very easy reception for what could have been a big gain, Maye would have posted somewhat decent numbers.

However, with Brown out of action and Doubs dropping everything in sight, Maye had to rely on Mack Hollins and Demario Douglas against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Also remember that the Patriots were fighting circadian rhythms, and we expected them to collapse in the second half, which is why we bet them in the first half.

Maye is incredibly talented, and he should bounce back against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense is known for being an excellent unit, but Mike Tomlin is gone, so the Steelers won't be as potent on this side of the ball anymore. They had a great performance against the Falcons, but that was versus Cooper Rush and a very limited offense. Even without Brown, the Patriots will be able to score way more points.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers needed a pick-six from T.J. Watt to pull away from the Falcons. This was a sad state of affairs, given that Atlanta had no offense outside of a couple of big plays made by Bijan Robinson. Cooper Rush was dreadful, so the Falcons should have been blown out, but they weren't.

Why couldn't the Steelers pull away? You could say that Aaron Rodgers was dreadful, but that's not the whole story. It wasn't all Rodgers' fault because the offensive line couldn't block. Half the offensive line was completely miserable, especially left tackle Troy Fautanu, who didn't look like a starting-caliber player.

The thing is, the Steelers didn't even battle a talented pass rush. With its two first-round edge rushers missing, Atlanta doesn't have the personnel to generate consistent quarterback pressure. The Patriots do, as they logged 19 quarterback pressures against Seattle in the opener. Christian Barmore, Dre'Mont Jones, and Milton Williams all dominated the line of scrimmage, and they'll have an even easier time against a much worse offensive line.

Rodgers will have to dump off the ball quickly, and this won't make for a very potent offense.

RECAP: I think the spread is way off. The Patriots are favored by 5.5 points, but my numbers say that they should be favored by 8.5 points.

We actually saw this matchup last year, and I even wrote about it in my book because it was one of the many bad beats that I suffered. The Patriots dominated the Steelers, yet they lost 21-14. New England gained 369 net yards of offense, while Pittsburgh had just 203. The reason why the Patriots lost was because they committed five fumbles, while the Steelers played a turnover-free game but barely moved the ball outside of one strong offensive drive early in the contest.

Despite this fumbling disparity, the Patriots still nearly prevailed in that game, which should tell you everything as far as the talent discrepancy between these teams is concerned.

With better variance on this occasion, as well as way more time to prepare for this contest than the Steelers, the Patriots shouldn't have any issues defeating Pittsburgh in the rematch.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no surprises on the injury report thus far, so my opinion on this game hasn't changed. I still like New England in this matchup.

Andy Iskoe, who appeared on our live stream Wednesday, also said that he loves the Patriots this week, so he's very much in agreement with my assessment of this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are missing players of note. The Steelers will likely be without Michael Pittman Jr. and Joey Porter Jr., while the Patriots will be down Harold Landry, A.J. Brown, and Carlton Davis.

None of these qualify as cluster injuries, however, so the injury report doesn't change my opinion on this matchup. I still like New England.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Carlton Davis and Michael Pittman Jr. are out, so they basically cancel each other out. The Patriots still look like a great play, but the sharps haven't taken a stance on this game. The best line is -5.5 -105 at BetMGM and FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -4.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Aaron Rodgers is 143-106 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 35-28 ATS as an underdog.

Mike Vrabel is 27-18 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

As you may know, our Survivor Contest has returned. If you're still alive, check out our Survivor Picks & Strategy page.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: As of Tuesday afternoon, we have no idea who is going to start at quarterback for the Falcons. Will it be Cooper Rush, who thoroughly embarrassed himself against the Seahawks? Will it be mushy-brained Tua Tagovailoa, who gets hurt while randomly falling down in practice? Will it be Michael Penix Jr., who was too injured to play despite the major problem at quarterback last week? Or will it be undrafted rookie Jack Strand, who is probably the best option of the four?

We have no idea right now, and honestly, it probably doesn't matter as long as it's not Strand or a completely healthy Penix. Even if it is Penix, I have no faith in the Falcons being able to score consistently. They'll get some big plays from Bijan Robinson, but that's about it.

The Panthers know that the Falcons can't do anything deep, so they'll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and limit everything Atlanta does. They did this last year when things were better for the Falcons. Atlanta couldn't score versus Carolina in two matchups outside of garbage time.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: If the Falcons win this game, it'll be a mix between some big Robinson plays and quarterback pressure from the defense. The Falcons don't have a good pass rush, and yet they were able to register 19 quarterback pressures against the Steelers. This is because Pittsburgh has a dreadful offensive line, but the Panthers have similar issues at tackle due to injuries at the position.

Despite these offensive line problems, the Panthers were still able to score into the 30s against the Bears. Granted, it was a very easy matchup, but Bryce Young looked better than ever while targeting Jalen Coker on downfield throws. We could see that again, with Young being able to connect with Coker and Tetairoa McMillan.

I'm sure Young would love to be able to lean on a strong rushing attack. However, the Panthers are using the less-talented Chuba Hubbard over Jonathon Brooks. Hubbard doesn't have the talent to overcome the pedestrian blocking, while Brooks does.

RECAP: I'm not excited about the prospect of betting the Panthers as road favorites, but that might be what I'm doing depending on Atlanta's quarterback situation. If the Falcons start Rush again, I will definitely be on Carolina. If they start Tagovailoa and his mushy brain, then I will definitely be on Carolina.

However, if Penix is healthy enough to start, or if the unknown Strand makes his debut, I don't think I would bet the Panthers. Penix is not a good quarterback at all, but he at least has some upside, unlike Tagovailoa or Rush. As for Strand, he looked very good in the preseason, but those were just meaningless games against vanilla defenses. There's no way of knowing how he'll play in real action, but given what we saw in August, there's at least a chance that he's somewhat competent.

Once we have news, I'll have a definitive pick for this game. Check back later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still have no update on Atlanta's quarterback situation, and we may not get one until Friday. Until then, it's difficult to have a strong opinion on this game.

I'm still unsure about what I'm going to do, but I'll have a much better idea once we know who the Falcons' starting quarterback will be.

SATURDAY NOTES: We now know who will be starting at quarterback for the Falcons. It's going to be Cooper Rush once again, which means fading Atlanta will be on the menu once again.

I have no issues making a play on the Panthers, even though they are favored by 2.5 on the road. It will certainly be uncomfortable laying points with Carolina as a visitor, and doing so may seem foolish. However, I believe it's the right decision because the Falcons with Rush under center are one of the worst teams in the league.

As uncomfortable as the bet may be, I'm willing to back Carolina at anything below a field goal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Panthers, bringing the line to -3 in some sportsbooks. There are no clean -2.5s available except at BetMGM. After that, you're looking at -2.5 -118 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.5.

Computer Model: Panthers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 72% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Panthers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I'll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks have returned. They'll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns are the laughingstock of the NFL. Not because they are the worst team - in fact, Miami might be worse - but because of the decision ownership is making on behalf of the coaching staff regarding the quarterback situation.

It's a complete joke that Deshaun Watson is still starting games in the NFL. He hasn't been good since 2020, and he's even worse than he was when we last saw him. Watson tore his Achilles twice since 2024, and it showed in the opener. He looked completely lost, and I don't even think he would make for a good third quarterback in this league anymore.

Despite this, Watson is still starting despite lashing out at the fans following a dreadful performance in the preseason. The only reason he's starting is because ownership wants to keep him on the field because they're paying him tons of money.

This is actually a good matchup for Watson, but I don't think he can take advantage of it. The Buccaneers have a poor defense that lost some key personnel this offseason. They logged just 12 quarterback pressures in the opener, and it's not like they were battling a strong offensive line, so I'm not convinced that they can get pressure on Watson. But like I said, it may not matter if Watson just continues to basically soil himself on the field.

Watson won't be able to lean on Quinshon Judkins, which would be an out for him. The Buccaneers, thanks to Vita Vea, are better against the run than the pass, so they should be able to contain the second-year runner.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of quarterbacks soiling themselves on the field, Baker Mayfield did exactly that in last week's opener against the Bengals. Mayfield committed three lost fumbles, aiding Cincinnati immensely in the process. Mayfield is not some turnover-prone quarterback like Jameis Winston or anything, so I don't think he'll make the same number of mistakes in this game.

It would have been difficult for Mayfield to rebound against his former team if this matchup had occurred last year. However, Myles Garrett is gone, which means Cleveland's defense is not nearly as potent as it used to be. The Browns had just 10 quarterback pressures last week, and Jared Verse didn't log a single one. It's clear that while Verse is talented, he's a major downgrade from Garrett. Thus, Mayfield should have plenty of time in the pocket to locate Emeka Egbuka and his other receivers.

The Browns figure to be better against the run than the pass, so Mayfield won't be able to lean on Bucky Irving. Still, Mayfield is good enough to overcome a dreadful performance and bounce back to redeem himself.

RECAP: Mayfield is someone who usually has a giant chip on his shoulder. Given that he was thoroughly embarrassed last week, I think he'll want to rebound, especially against his former team. He's played the Browns before but lost to them back in 2022 when he was with the Panthers. Thus, he'll have a chance to defeat them for the first time in his career.

I like getting Mayfield focused in this contest because I also love to fade terrible quarterbacks on horrible teams. That obviously applies to the Browns. As I stated before, Watson should not even be a third quarterback in the NFL anymore, and yet he's the starter only because ownership demands it. His teammates know that he's not worthy of being a starter, so it's hard for them to give it their all for him. They know they have no chance of winning, so there could be a quit factor in the second half if they fall behind by double digits, especially if it's as hot and humid as it's projected to be in Tampa this Sunday. Given their defense's decline and offense's futility, it is likely that this occurs.

I have no issues betting the Buccaneers in this matchup, even though the spread is above a touchdown. I don't think the line is high enough. This spread should be at least -10.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's nothing of note on the injury report in this game, and the spread has remained the same. Thus, my opinion on this contest hasn't changed.

I still expect to bet the Buccaneers, and I'm not afraid of this high spread, which isn't as high as it should be.

SATURDAY NOTES: There's no major injury news outside of Tyson Campbell, but he practiced on a limited basis on Friday, so he may play. One thing I'll note is something I touched on earlier, which is the revenge angle for Baker Mayfield. I knew this was a revenge game for Mayfield, but what I didn't know is that he told the media before the season that he had circled this game on the schedule.

As crazy as it sounds, it's possible that Mayfield was looking ahead to this matchup against his former team during last week's game against Cincinnati. That could help explain some of the uncharacteristic turnovers. Regardless, it's clear that this game means a great deal to Mayfield, which makes me like the Buccaneers even more.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Believe it or not, the sharps are on the Browns. I don't know why, but they are. This has brought the line down to -8 in many places, and you can even get -7.5 -109 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -6.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Money coming in on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 91% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Road Team is 152-106 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 46-82 ATS at home in the previous 126 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -8.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 86 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals scored 33 points in a victory over the Buccaneers last week, but they didn't have a great offensive performance. They were able to benefit from four fumbles that the Buccaneers committed. To be fair, however, Joe Burrow did a great job of keeping the chains moving with some clutch plays late in the game.

This, however, occurred against Tampa Bay's weak defense. Battling the Texans will be another story. Houston is able to generate tons of pressure on the quarterback, and that will harm Burrow in his attempt to begin the season with a 2-0 record. Cincinnati's offensive line isn't terrible, but it's not that good either. The Texans definitely have a big advantage up front.

I wouldn't expect much from Chase Brown on the ground either. The Texans just limited James Cook, who is a superior runner compared to Brown. Burrow will have to beat the Texans without ground support, which is a difficult task, but not impossible for someone of his caliber.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: One of the reasons why I think the Bengals have a great chance to advance deep into the playoffs is their improved defense. Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe helped the pass rush last week with seven total quarterback pressures. This enhanced pass rush would normally be a big issue for C.J. Stroud. However, Houston's offensive line has improved by leaps and bounds this year.

Aireontae Ersery had a solid debut in his second year, while rookie center Keylan Rutledge was terrific against Buffalo. This improved blocking allowed Stroud to go toe-to-toe with Josh Allen. And if he can do that, then he can certainly engage in a shootout with Burrow.

Houston also operated its running game well, though it appeared to forget about it in the second half. David Montgomery rushed for more than 50 yards in the opening half against the Bills but was barely given the ball following intermission. Perhaps the Texans took note of this and will give Montgomery more work against the Bengals. However, it's not an ideal matchup with Lawrence now clogging the interior.

RECAP: The Bengals have been extremely lucky in recent Week 1 and 2 games. For example, they were outgained by more than 200 yards against the Browns in the opener last year but were able to prevail because of two missed short field goals by a usually accurate kicker and a couple of dropped passes that turned into interceptions. The following week, the Bengals prevailed because Brian Thomas Jr. dropped an easy reception near the goal line. And last week, the Bengals were able to benefit from four turnovers by Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving.

My point is that the Bengals have been very lucky to win these games, and yet Burrow is still 4-9 straight up in Weeks 1 and 2 in his career. Given what transpired in the three games I described, he could easily be 1-11 in those contests right now.

For whatever reason, the Bengals usually start slowly, and betting against them has worked for the most part.

However, I would be remiss if I ignored that DeMeco Ryans has also struggled to begin the year. He is 0-7 against the spread in Weeks 1 and 2. Granted, he nearly won some games and wasn't the recipient of good fortune like the Bengals have been. In fact, he nearly beat the Rams in the opener last year and was a dropped interception away from defeating Buffalo last week.

Thus, I trust the Texans more in this game than the Bengals, but it's close. These teams are evenly matched, so I don't anticipate betting either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's some concern about Nico Collins missing this game. He's dealing with a hamstring injury, so there's a chance he'll be sidelined against the Bengals.

I'm still leaning toward Houston, but Collins' potential absence certainly makes Cincinnati more appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans have a couple of worrisome cluster injuries. Nico Collins is out, which means Houston will be down three receivers, with Collins joining Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell on the sideline.

Meanwhile, the offensive line will be missing its entire right side. Brandon Smith is on injured reserve, while Ed Ingram will be sidelined for this game. Losing multiple players at both receiver and offensive line is a major concern for an offense that will need to keep pace with Cincinnati.

This would normally be enough to put me on the Bengals, but Joe Burrow is dealing with some sort of back injury. I expect him to play, given that he practiced fully Friday, but there's always a chance that the injury hinders him.

There's also Cincinnati's history of struggling early in the season. The Bengals have been woeful in Weeks 1 and 2, so despite Houston's concerning injury situation, I don't want to back Cincinnati this early in the year.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven't touched either side, which isn't much of a surprise because of the injuries on both sides. If you like the Texans, you can get -2.5 -113 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.5.

Computer Model: Texans -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 55% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Joe Burrow is 4-9 SU in Weeks 1-2.

DeMeco Ryans is 0-7 ATS in Weeks 1-2.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

I mentioned earlier that I have a new book called Year of the Bad Beat. In it, I re-live the horrors of the 28 NFL bad beats we suffered last year, as well as some others from NBA and golf. If you want to experience my misery, check it out:

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I want to say I thought the Saints would be able to score way more points than they did last week, but they ended up with 30 points. Still, the fact remains that New Orleans was very sluggish offensively for most of the game. It wasn't until late in garbage time when the Saints finally got going, and then garbage time turned into real action, with New Orleans nearly prevailing.

Tyler Shough had a great finish but was putrid for most of the afternoon. If he struggled against the Lions for the most part, he'll have severe issues against the Ravens, who are energized defensively by Jesse Minter's presence.

The Ravens had some great performances from many of their players last week, including Trey Hendrickson, who helped what was a weak pass rush with four quarterback pressures. Shough will be harassed in this game, and he could commit some turnovers as a result.

Shough won't be able to lean on the running game either. Travis Etienne, who really isn't that good in the first place, will be battling a Baltimore defense that just clamped down on Jonathan Taylor.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I'd like to say that the Saints' defense played better than expected last week because Detroit had some issues scoring in the second half. However, I believe that was the result of the Lions looking ahead to their Thursday night matchup. It's not like the Saints put tons of pressure on Jared Goff or anything. On the contrary, New Orleans logged only 10 quarterback pressures, which does not bode well for them in this game.

The Saints are going to have major problems containing Lamar Jackson. There's a reason Jackson performs so well against NFC teams, and that's because they aren't used to seeing someone of his caliber. It's been a long time since there's been a dynamic quarterback on the ground like Jackson in the NFC South, so the Saints aren't built to stop him. Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants against New Orleans.

If there's some hope for the Saints, it's that the Baltimore aerial attack might be limited a bit with Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane banged up. However, New Orleans will also have to deal with Derrick Henry, who looked like he was in his mid-20s again with a dominant performance against the Colts. I don't know how Henry keeps doing this, but he's going to be way too much for the Saints to handle.

RECAP: If the Ravens are focused in this game, they'll be able to get out to a big lead against the Saints and win by double digits. There's a chance that New Orleans will be able to score some points in garbage time and perhaps get a backdoor cover, but I usually wouldn't want to rely on something like that.

I mentioned Baltimore being able to focus for this contest because that's a major factor to consider. The Ravens are coming off a blowout win, and after this "easy" game against an NFC South opponent, they have to travel overseas to play the Cowboys in Brazil. The Ravens could certainly have one eye on that game and have a sloppy, mistake-filled performance versus New Orleans.

I'm not a huge fan of betting on psychological edges as a primary factor because they're so difficult to predict without actually having sources within the locker room. However, there's no arguing that this is not a good spot for Baltimore.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Zay Flowers missed practice Wednesday, and it sounds like Baltimore could be without its top two receivers. Those would be crucial absences for an offense laying a big number.

The Ravens should still be able to build a lead against the Saints, but a diminished receiving corps would make it more difficult for them to pull away. Given these injuries, the possibility of New Orleans scoring late and sneaking through the back door becomes even more likely.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens suddenly have an uncomfortable number of injuries. First of all, they could be down two offensive linemen. Ronnie Stanley and John Simpson are both questionable after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday before being limited Friday. If they're both out, Baltimore's blocking will be diminished, especially if Stanley is sidelined.

The Ravens could also be missing Trey Hendrickson, who barely practiced this week. And I haven't even gotten to the receivers yet. Zay Flowers is doubtful, while Ja'Kobi Landry is on injured reserve. That means Baltimore will likely be without its top two receivers, leaving Rashod Bateman as the No. 1 option.

All of these injuries would normally point toward the Saints covering the spread. However, New Orleans has some significant injury concerns of its own. Chris Olave was limited in practice Thursday and Friday with a hamstring issue, which could hinder him even if he's able to play.

If Olave is declared out or is knocked out during the game, he'll join Jordyn Tyson on the sideline, leaving Devaughn Vele and Bryce Lance as the Saints' top two receivers. That's certainly not ideal if you plan on betting New Orleans to take advantage of Baltimore's injuries.

There are simply too many important injury questions on both sides for me to feel comfortable betting this game. I almost certainly won't be touching it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There's been a bit of sharp money on the Saints, but nothing crazy. I don't think it's the worst idea to put a unit on them because of the Baltimore injuries, but I'm not doing it. The best line is Saints +8.5 -108 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Ravens have to travel to Brazil next.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.

Computer Model: Ravens -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Tons of action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 85% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Rain, 81 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Video of the Week: This video tested the limits of restaurants. For example, how many refills can you get? Can you get a steak rarer than rare?

This feels like something I would do. I once asked for "a grilled cheese, hold the grill."

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles scoring just 24 points in the opener was not a great sign. They hit some big plays, but they struggled to pass protect for Jalen Hurts. Luckily for Philadelphia, the offensive line should be able to redeem itself in this game.

The Titans can't generate any pressure on the quarterback. Outside of Jeffery Simmons, no one can get to the opposing passer. Tennessee had only nine quarterback pressures in the opener, and Simmons had three of them. This is a very sad state of affairs for the Titans, but Hurts won't complain too much. He'll use that time in the pocket to hit DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Dontayvion Wicks for big gains.

The Titans also have issues stopping the run. Saquon Barkley showed some glimpses of his 2024 form in the opener, so you have to like him in this matchup.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It's difficult to say if the Titans' defense was worse than the offense last week against the Jets. Tennessee couldn't generate anything offensively until garbage time, and now it will battle an even tougher defense.

The Titans have several issues on this side of the ball. They can't block whatsoever, which is a big problem against Philadelphia's pass rush. The tackles are terrible, and Austin Schlottman might be the worst starting center in the NFL. Philadelphia's pass rush will be able to take advantage of this.

Another problem is Cam Ward. He's simply not good. Perhaps he'll improve in the future, but he's shown nothing yet. The Eagles have an elite secondary that will be able to lock down his mediocre weapons. Ward will likely be forced into some turnovers.

RECAP: Last year, I often referred to the Titans as a money-printing machine. This is because betting against them has been so successful.

If you don't believe me, just consider the numbers. Since Mike Vrabel left the team, Tennessee is a ridiculous 9-26 against the spread. And keep in mind that some of those spread victories occurred under very fluky circumstances. I wrote about several of them in my book!

I see no reason to refrain from betting against the Titans. They lost to the Jets by 13 at home last week, and now they'll battle an even tougher opponent. The Eagles are obviously better than the Jets, so I don't see why they wouldn't also win by double digits.

The spread is way too low. Philadelphia should be favored by way more than a touchdown.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Carter and Cooper DeJean both missed practice Wednesday. Those are certainly two important absences to monitor, but it would take a much longer injury report for me to reconsider betting the Eagles.

Unless Philadelphia suffers several more significant injuries before kickoff, I don't expect these two situations alone to scare me away from the Eagles.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only thing of note on the injury report is that both teams could be missing a key defender. Jonathan Gannon is out once again for the Eagles, while Tennessee may not have Cordale Flott after he missed Friday's practice with a quad injury.

Outside of those two defensive absences, the injury report is clean. There's nothing here that changes my opinion on the matchup, so I continue to stand by my selection of the Eagles to cover this touchdown spread.

PROPS: We won with Dallas Goedert having the most receiving yards last week, and we'll try to do it again. Goedert is basically Philadelphia's No. 2 receiver, and he's priced very well at +650 on FanDuel.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans are down one of their starting cornerbacks, which is a nice boost for the Eagles, but not a complete game-changer. It's also very hot in Tennessee, but I don't think the Titans are good enough to take advantage of that. There's been no sharp action on either side. The best line is -7 -109 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No doubt where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 96% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Jalen Hurts is 12-18 ATS as a road favorite.

Titans are 31-24 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Sunny, 96 degrees. Light wind.