August 17, 2026

Circa Survivor Guaranteed $15 Million. It Paid Out $18.7 Million

Walt Walt6 mins

 

 

Last season’s Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest contest carried a huge guarantee of $15 million.

However, after 18,718 people paid $1,000 to enter, the total jackpot ended up being $18.7 million, as Circa takes no rake.

Five entries ended up surviving all 20 legs, so they had to split $18.7 million five ways. A healthy $3,743,600 apiece, which isn’t bad for a $1,000 entry fee.

 

That gap between the guarantee and the actual jackpot is a large part of the appeal to participants placing a stake on the Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest.

No Ceiling, No Rake

Somewhat unusually, Survivor has no limit. Every entry that’s above the guarantee threshold goes straight into the prize pool, so the total prize pool is simply the number of contestants times the entry fee.

In 2024, a record 14,266 entries turned a $10 million guarantee into a whopping $14.266 million. When the 2025 competition happened, 18,718 entries were made, turning the $15 million guarantee into $18.718 million.

For 2026, Circa is increasing the guarantee even further. They’re setting a guarantee for $20 million, which is the largest guarantee attached to any US sports betting contest. Considering they seem to always go over the guarantee, this can easily be a $22-$23 million-plus jackpot.

A Fixed Number Instead

Unlike Circa Survivor, the Circa Million doesn’t run on this progressive-like system, where each bet increases the total jackpot.

Instead, participants enter with $1,000, have five picks against the spread each week, and the $6 million guarantee stands no matter how many people show up.

Often, this guarantee actually costs the house money. In 2024, Million only had 5,817 entries, falling short of the 6,000 needed to cover the $6 million. They did the same in 2025, as they only had 5,685 entries.

The structure isn’t the same, however, which draws in fewer football fans. It settles on a schedule rather than at the end, with quarterly prizes of $300,000 being awarded every four to five weeks.

Different Types of Jackpots

That leaves us with one question. Why has Circa chosen these types of jackpots?

Well, the fixed jackpot, the one that never moves, is often chosen for its simplicity and defined liability. The Circa Million, for example, profits after the guarantee is met, as long as they have enough entries to cover it.

The progressive-like jackpot provides less profit for Circa with their Survivor model, but naturally, because of its increasing jackpot nature, it attracts more entries, which could work in Circa’s favor in the long run.

Online casinos landed on the same answer. Many offer jackpot spins for progressive jackpots that can increase into the hundreds of thousands, while others offer static wins of 10,000 or 50,000 times your stake.

One offers a guaranteed amount if you hit a maximum win, and the other provides an increasing jackpot. Both, however, are used to drive interest from both types of target markets.

Which One Is Better

Neither is inherently better or worse than the other, though participants have their preferences, which is the point of running both.

A guaranteed pool gives entrants a floor and the operator a defined liability. A growing pool offers neither. What it can do is produce a figure nobody expected.

Both are rewarding, but they do two different things. Together, however, they get people interested, which is why Circa does them.

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