Dolphins (0-0) at Steelers (0-0). Line: Pick. Over-Under: 34½.
Thursday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Dolphins -1.


The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: G Seth McKinney, CB Will Poole. QUESTIONABLE: CB Travis Daniels, CB Michael Lehan. Steelers: OUT: QB Ben Roethlisberger*. QUESTIONABLE: OT Max Starks, CB Deshea Townsend, S Mike Logan. EXPECTED TO PLAY: WR Hines Ward* (ESPN).

What a difference one player makes. With Ben Roethlisberger in the lineup, everyone was on the Steelers, who were five-point favorites. Now that Big Ben is out with an emergency appendectomy, everyone is on the Dolphins, who are now favored. I guess Charlie Batch isn’t the second coming of Joe Montana, huh?

Roethlisberger’s absence does have one advantage: Pittsburgh’s defense will give more than 100 percent, given that everyone on the stop unit knows he has to give it his all to win this contest. The Steelers, who were ranked second against the run in 2005, will put the clamps on Ronnie Brown, who may not even garner 30 rushing yards Thursday night. Pittsburgh will also put relentless pressure on Daunte Culpepper, who did not impress me this preseason. Culpepper had fumbling issues before he got hurt last year, meaning the Steelers may force the iffy quarterback to commit a few turnovers.

The Steelers will also have problems scoring. Miami will load up against the run, forcing Batch to beat them. I must note that Batch was 2-0 last year, and he will have Hines Ward, who is expected to play despite an injured hamstring. An already-troubled Dolphins’ secondary could be without starting cornerback Travis Daniels, meaning Ward, Cedrick Wilson, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller should be open all night.

If Roethlisberger were out for a few weeks, or the Steelers were playing the road, they would be in trouble. However, Bill Cowher’s squad can survive one week with Batch at the helm, especially at home. Teasing the Steelers and the Under could pay dividends.


The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Dolphins are 28-12 SU in September since 1994.
  • Steelers are 3-6 ATS in September home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -1.
  • Opening Total: 35½.
  • Weather: Clear, 64 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Daunte Culpepper, Ronnie Brown.

Prediction: Steelers 17, Dolphins 13. (Steelers PK).
Correct: Steelers 28, Dolphins 17.




Falcons (0-0) at Panthers (0-0). Line: Panthers by 5½. Over-Under: 39.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Panthers -5.


The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Falcons: DOUBTFUL: LB Edgerton Hartwell. Panthers: UNLIKELY TO PLAY: WR Steve Smith*.

Flash back to Week 17 of the 2005 campaign: Atlanta had a chance to improve to 9-7 against Carolina. Instead of trying hard, the Falcons didn’t show up – which Michael Vick admitted to – and consequently lost 44-11. The Panthers beat Atlanta earlier in the season, 24-6.

Is this a fluke? Not at all. Everyone and their mother knows Vick likes to scramble if he can’t find anyone open downfield. Well, Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker will make sure that doesn’t happen. In the two meetings last year, Vick rushed only four times for 36 yards. He was also sacked 10 times and picked off thrice. He won’t be able to rely on his potent running game either; Carolina was ranked third against opposing ground attacks even without Kris Jenkins in 2005.

While Vick won’t be able to do much, another playmaker (Steve Smith) should be in for an outstanding performance. In two contests against the Panthers, Smith caught 16 passes for 196 yards and two scores. That’s helped in part by Atlanta’s woeful run defense, which surrendered 4.8 yards per carry last year. I expect DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams to combine for more than 200 rushing yards.

This is a simple case of domination. The Falcons just don’t have the personnel to match up with the Panthers.


The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • History: Panthers have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -4.
  • Opening Total: 41½.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Delhomme, DeShaun Foster, Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson, Panthers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Warrick Dunn, Falcons WRs and Defense.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 10. (Panthers -5½).
Incorrect: Falcons 20, Panthers 6.




Saints (0-0) at Browns (0-0). Line: Browns by 3. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Browns -3.


The Game. Edge: Browns.
Injuries: Saints: OUT: G Jermaine Mayberry, LB Tommy Polley, LB James Allen, S Bryan Scott, P Mitch Berger. Browns: OUT: RB William Green, C Alonzo Ephraim. DOUBTFUL: S Brian Russell QUESTIONABLE: OT Nat Dorsey, G Joe Andruzzi, CB Daylon McCutcheon, CB Leigh Bodden.

I don’t think anyone really knows what to do with this game. The line has been sitting at three since April. Well, I’m going to try to break down this evenly matched contest.

New Orleans’ offense seemed stagnant this preseason. Maybe it’s because Drew Brees’ shoulder isn’t fully recovered. Or maybe Reggie Bush just can’t outrun star outside linebackers like DeMarcus Ware. It could be that Joe Horn is old, or the offensive line isn’t that good, or Deuce McAllister isn’t 100 percent yet. The reason for the Saints’ futility isn’t consequential; Cleveland’s much-improved defense should be able to keep them in check.

The Browns have had their share of problems too, stemming from LeCharles Bentley’s season-ending injury. However, the acquisition of center Hank Fraley should help. Reuben Droughns will eclipse the 100-yard barrier against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, which will make life easier for Charlie Frye. I’m anxious to see what Frye can do with Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr. and Joe Jurevicius.

It seems like Cleveland is the right side. A bet on the Under looks even more promising. Have doubts the Browns are going to win? Just consider the fact that Romeo Crennel will coach circles around Sean Payton.


The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Saints are 28-20 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Saints are 18-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Browns -3.
  • Opening Total: 37½.
  • Weather: Showers, 66 degrees. Mild wind: 14 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Reuben Droughns, Browns Defense.
  • Sit Em: Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, Braylon Edwards.

Prediction: Browns 20, Saints 10. (Browns -3).
Money Pick.
Incorrect: Saints 19, Browns 14.




Seahawks (0-0) at Lions (0-0). Line: Seahawks by 7. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Seahawks -6.


The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: TE Jerramy Stevens, S Mike Green. QUESTIONABLE: WR Darrell Jackson*, DT Marcus Tubbs. Lions: OUT: WR Scottie Vines, LB Teddy Lehman. QUESTIONABLE: G Ross Verba, DE Cory Redding, CB Fernando Bryant.

Ah, the Super Bowl Loser Jinx. No one understands why it exists, yet every team that has lost in the big game this decade has not qualified for the playoffs the ensuing season. The losers also have a poor record on opening day, as you can tell below.

But how can the Seahawks suffer from such a crazy hoax? Shaun Alexander should be able to rush for 200 yards against the 22nd-ranked rushing defense from a year ago, which is now missing the big-bodied Dan Wilkinson. Matt Hasselbeck should be able to throw for more than 300 yards thanks to a porous secondary and a non-existent pass rush (31 sacks last year). Seattle should be able to score nonstop.

And how will the Lions possibly muster any sort of offense? Seattle’s defense, which registered a league-high 50 sacks in 2005, added Julian Peterson to its roster. Jon Kitna will be on his back the entire afternoon, right?

Well, sometimes the best team doesn’t always win and cover. I don’t know how focused Seattle will be for this contest, given that they play the much-improved Cardinals, Giants and Bears the next three weeks. Detroit will also be looking for something to prove in its home opener under a new coach. There is too much action on the Seahawks. I’m going to side with the huge home underdog.


The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 3-9 ATS in their first game the following season.
  • Breather Alert: After this "easy" game, the Seahawks play the Cardinals, Giants and Bears.
  • Extreme Line Movement: Teams that had the line change in their favor by three or more points were 3-8 ATS in 2005.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -3½.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, Nate Burleson, Seahawks Defense.
  • Sit Em: Kevin Jones.

Prediction: Seahawks 16, Lions 13. (Lions +7).
Correct: Seahawks 9, Lions 6.




Eagles (0-0) at Texans (0-0). Line: Eagles by 6½. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Eagles -5.


The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Domanick Davis, LB Kailee Wong, CB DeMarcus Faggins, KR Jerome Mathis. QUESTIONABLE: G Steve McKinney.

The Eagles think they are better off without Terrell Owens. I disagree. I guess we’ll find out in the future – but not today because the Texans stink.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that Houston failed to upgrade its offensive line again. Just months after clamoring about how left tackle Seth Wand was the best player on the front, the Texans released the mediocre blocker. Conversely, the Eagles had a problem getting to opposing signal callers last year, and they actually did something about it. The quartette of Jevon Kearse, Darren Howard, Mike Patterson and rookie Brodrick Bunkley looked relentless this preseason. I’m expecting at least five sacks from the front four alone. With all of this pressure, David Carr will be guilty of a few turnovers.

Should I even bother going over Houston’s defense? There is no way the unit will be able to pressure Donovan McNabb, even with its rookie “pass rusher extraordinaire.” Excluding Dunta Robinson, the Texans’ secondary is comprised of Lewis Sanders, C.C. Brown, Glenn Earl, Dexter McCleon and Phillip Buchanon. No way that group can cover Donte’ Stallworth, Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith and Brian Westbrook.

I know the Eagles have the Giants next week, but I think they have a chip on the shoulder after the way they finished their disappointing and controversial 2005 campaign. Philadelphia has something to prove.


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: Eagles play the Giants after this "easy" game.
  • Extreme Line Movement: Teams that had the line change in their favor by three or more points were 3-8 ATS in 2005.
  • Eagles are 5-12 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -3½.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, L.J. Smith, Eagles Defense.
  • Sit Em: Texans Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Texans 0. (Eagles -6½).
Correct: Eagles 24, Texans 10.




Bengals (0-0) at Chiefs (0-0). Line: Pick. Over-Under: 48.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Chiefs -3.


The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Bengals: OUT: RB Chris Perry, LB Odell Thurman, CB Deltha O'Neal, CB Rashad Bauman. QUESTIONABLE: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh*, LB David Pollack, CB Deltha O'Neal. Chiefs: OUT: OT Jonathan Welbourn, C Seth McKinney, DT John Browning.

Prior to Palmer’s explosive performance against the Packers, I was ready to bet the farm on Kansas City. No way was Anthony Wright going to walk into Arrowhead and not throw at least four interceptions. But Palmer proved that he is fully recovered, which has changed my outlook on this contest.

Well, maybe not completely. Linebacker Odell Thurman is out for the Bengals, meaning their 30th-ranked rush defense of a season ago will be at Larry Johnson’s mercy. Johnson will compile close to 200 yards, setting up play-action opportunities for Trent Green. If cornerback Deltha O’Neal and linebacker David Pollack are out, the Chiefs may not punt more than once.

Cincinnati will also light up the scoreboard. Although the Chiefs made some significant additions on defense – defensive end Tamba Hali and cornerback Ty Law to name two – stopping a focused Bengals scoring attack is nearly impossible. Palmer will throw at least three touchdowns.

This will be a tight, high-scoring affair. However, I'm giving a slight edge to the Chiefs, who are outstanding at home. If Thurman were available, I might go the other way.


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Extreme Line Movement: Teams that had the line change in their favor by three or more points were 3-8 ATS in 2005.
  • Chiefs are 19-4 ATS in home openers since 1971.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -3.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Possible showers, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Eddie Kennison, Tony Gonzalez.
  • Sit Em: T.J. Houshmandzadeh*, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Bengals 27. (Chiefs -1).
Incorrect: Bengals 23, Chiefs 10.




Bills (0-0) at Patriots (0-0). Line: Patriots by 10. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Patriots -12.


The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: Bills: QUESTIONABLE: S Matt Bowen. Patriots: OUT: S Mel Mitchell. QUESTIONABLE: RB Laurence Maroney, WR Chad Jackson, DT Ty Warren, ILB Tedy Bruschi.

Every year there is a major upset the first week of the season. Every year, thousands of bettors light their money on fire by gambling on a “sure winner” that inexplicably loses to a much weaker opponent. So, should you bet the farm on Buffalo? No – this is not one of those games.

The Patriots’ offense will be an unstoppable force that the Bills won’t be able to handle. Marv Levy did nothing to improve Buffalo’s defense, which was ranked 27th against the run last year. The team will be so focused on stopping Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney that they won’t pay much attention to Ben Watson, Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel, Kevin Faulk and Tom Brady’s “lesser targets.” I’ll be shocked if New England punts more than twice.

Conversely, Buffalo won’t be able to move the chains. Willis McGahee gained just three years on eight carries in his second meeting with a healthy Patriots squad in Week 13 last season. With McGahee restricted to minimal output, J.P. Losman will be stuck in a plethora of third-and-long situations. At home, that wouldn’t matter too much. On the road? That’s a different story.

Before you bet this game, check out BETTING TRENDS in the menu. You’ll see a list of untalented or inexperienced quarterbacks and how they’ve fared in away contests. As you can probably guess, Losman hasn’t done too well.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 10 of the last 11 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current NFL coaches are 55-34 ATS as divisional underdogs of seven or more since 2002 (Dick Jauron 0-3 ATS).
  • Weak Arm: J.P. Losman is 1-3 ATS on the road.
  • Bills are 3-9 ATS in season openers the previous 12 years.
  • Patriots are 30-16 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Patriots are 17-6 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 68-20 as a starter (56-31 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -8½.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 69 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, Ben Watson, Patriots Defense.
  • Sit Em: Bills Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Bills 3. (Patriots -10).
Double Money Pick.
Survivor Pick.
Incorrect: Patriots 19, Bills 17.




Broncos (0-0) at Rams (0-0). Line: Broncos by 4. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Broncos -3.


The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Broncos: OUT: P Todd Sauerbrun. QUESTIONABLE: DE Courtney Brown. Rams: OUT: G Claude Terrell, ST Drew Wahlroos. QUESTIONABLE: OT Rex Tucker, DT Jimmy Kennedy, CB Ronald Bartell Jr.

Remember what I said in the opening paragraph of the Patriots-Bills preview about bettors losing an obvious game in Week 1? Well, this is the one. Everyone in the world is on Denver. No one is on St. Louis. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Denver’s defense played well last year, but the only problem it had was generating a consistent pass rush. The Broncos garnered just 28 sacks in 2005, and starting defensive end Courtney Brown could be out for this contest. Protecting the quarterback has been an Achilles’ heel for St. Louis, meaning it already has an advantage. I just don’t understand why the Rams are so lowly regarded in football circles. Don’t they still have Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Steven Jackson, Orlando Pace and Marc Bulger? I’ll be surprised St. Louis doesn’t score a healthy amount of points.

One more reason why the Rams are really underrated: They added linebacker Will Witherspoon, cornerback Fakhir Brown and safety Corey Chavous to their defense. They don’t exactly have a powerhouse, but the stop unit will be OK enough to force the Broncos to punt on occasion.

Denver will not be focused for this contest. The team has Kansas City and New England after this “easy” game. The entire world thinks St. Louis is garbage, so the Broncos will just waltz into the Edward Jones Dome, thinking they can come away with an easy victory. If I’m right, they’re in for a rude awakening.


The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Breather Alert: After this "easy" game, the Broncos play the Chiefs and Patriots.
  • Broncos are 4-7 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
  • Rams were 1-5 ATS in season openers under Mike Martz.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -3½.
  • Opening Total: 47½.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Jake Plummer, Rod Smith, Javon Walker.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Rams 34, Broncos 29. (Rams +4).
Money Pick.
Correct: Rams 18, Broncos 10.




Ravens (0-0) at Buccaneers (0-0). Line: Buccaneers by 3. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Buccaneers -4.


The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
Injuries: Ravens: EXPECTED TO START: RB Jamal Lewis. Buccaneers: OUT: G Davin Joseph. QUESTIONABLE: OT Kenyatta Walker, G Dan Buenning, LB Shelton Quarles, S Will Allen.

Like the Cincinnati-Kansas City matchup, this is another game where I’ll be doing a complete 180. No, no one recovered from an injury; Baltimore’s acquisition of Steve McNair is affecting my pick – and not in the way you think it is.

There is no doubt that McNair gives the Ravens a chance to go to the playoffs for the first time since 2003. However, I feel he and his new team are overmatched against one of the elite defenses in the NFL. Right tackle Tony Pashos will be a huge liability against defensive end Greg Spires (eight sacks in 2004), while left tackle Jonathan Ogden, who is coming off a disappointing campaign, will have problems blocking Simeon Rice. Jamal Lewis won’t find any running lanes against a stop unit ranked first against the run last season, meaning McNair will have to complete long-yardage situations with defenders in his face.

As I’ve been saying the past few years, the Ravens’ defense is completely overrated. Haloti Ngata is an unproven rookie; Ray Lewis is over the hill; outside linebacker Bart Scott shouldn’t be starting; and there is a huge hole at strong safety, currently occupied by Dawan Landry, a fifth-round pick in April’s draft. Tampa Bay won’t score many points, but Chris Simms should be able to hook up with Joey Galloway for a pair of touchdowns.

Baltimore is also at a disadvantage because it will be asked to play in an extremely hot and humid climate, which it is not accustomed to. There’s a reason Tampa Bay is usually dominant in its September home games. So, why did I change my pick? Without McNair in the lineup, the Buccaneers would have looked past the Ravens to their upcoming battles with Atlanta and Carolina. With McNair, Baltimore is a legitimate playoff contender – at least in the eyes of the average fan – which means Tampa Bay will be focused.


The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Ravens are 5-13 ATS as an underdog the previous 18 instances.
  • Ravens were 2-6 ATS on the road in 2005.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -4½.
  • Opening Total: 35.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Joey Galloway, Buccaneers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Jamal Lewis.

Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Ravens 9. (Buccaneers -3).
Incorrect: Ravens 27, Buccaneers 0.




Jets (0-0) at Titans (0-0). Line: Titans by 3. Over-Under: 35½.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Titans -3.


The Game. Edge: Jets.
Injuries: Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin. QUESTIONABLE: CB David Barrett. Titans: OUT: DE Antwan Odom, DT Rien Long. QUESTIONABLE: RB LenDale White, WR David Givens*, TE Erron Kinney, OT Jacob Bell, G Benji Olson, S Lamont Thompson.

I don’t know about you, but this was the toughest game for me to pick this week. I’m aware that both of these teams are horrible, but I’m having trouble just comprehending how atrocious they’ll both be.

At least the Jets have a quarterback – sort of. Chad Pennington is a reliable veteran, but his shoulder has never recovered from the multiple injuries it suffered the past few years. However, that may not matter against Tennessee’s defense, which is sure to set records for futility in 2006. Only two starters – Kyle Vanden Bosch and Keith Bulluck – would be starters on any other squad. I’m confident that Kevan Barlow will total 100 rushing yards the only time this season, which will set up some play-action opportunities for Pennington.

Unlike the Titans, the Jets actually have a formidable stop unit; Shaun Ellis, Dewayne Robertson, Kimo von Oelhoffen, Victor Hobson, Jonathan Vilma, Justin Miller, Eric Barton and Kerry Rhodes are all solid players. New York will apply heavy pressure on whomever is under center for Tennessee, whether it’s Billy Volek, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Neil O’Donnell or Warren Moon. The Titans’ ground game will also be nullified; the triumvirate of Chris Brown, Travis Henry and LenDale White combined for 3.1 yards per carry in the preseason.

In the first Toilet Bowl of the 2006 season, the visiting underdog should be able to come away with the victory. Neither of these teams deserves a win, so let’s root for a tie.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Jets are 7-17-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 27 instances.
  • Jets were 1-7 ATS on the road in 2005.
  • Opening Line: Titans -3.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Kevan Barlow, Laveranues Coles, Jets Defense.
  • Sit Em: Titans RBs.

Prediction: Jets 20, Titans 10. (Jets +3).
Correct: Jets 23, Titans 16.




49ers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0). Line: Cardinals by 8. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Cardinals -7.


The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
Injuries: 49ers: OUT: C Jeremy Newberry, LB Parys Haralson. Cardinals: OUT: OT Oliver Ross. QUESTIONABLE: G Elton Brown, LB Karlos Dansby.

Congratulations, Cardinals fans. You know longer have to sit on hot bleachers under the scorching sun in a dilapidated stadium. If only we were all so lucky.

With a new stadium and actual non-scarecrow fans in the seats, I expect the Cardinals to be fired up. Look for Arizona’s offensive line to blow open holes for Edgerrin James against a very weak defensive front. This will allow Kurt Warner to get easy looks downfield against one of the worst secondaries in league history. And by the way, Shawntae Spencer, San Francisco’s No. 1 corner, is questionable. Could Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both go for 200 yards?

Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense has improved enough to be able to stop San Francisco. The last time the two teams met, Frank Gore and Maurice Hicks were limited to 39 yards on just 16 carries, while Alex Smith threw three interceptions. I expect similar production from Gore on Sunday. Smith will also struggle; check out BETTING TRENDS to see why.

I think the Cardinals will cover, but I’ll concede that the line is a bit too high. Teasing it with New England and/or Chicago might be a good idea. The first-half line is also worth a look.


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • History: Cardinals have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Weak Arm: Alex Smith is 2-2 ATS on the road.
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -7½.
  • Opening Total: 42½.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals Defense.
  • Sit Em: 49ers Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Cardinals 26, 49ers 6. (Cardinals -8).
Money Pick.
Incorrect: Cardinals 34, 49ers 27.




Bears (0-0) at Packers (0-0). Line: Bears by 4. Over-Under: 35.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Bears -4½.


The Game. Edge: Bears.
Injuries: Bears: OUT: DT Dusty Dvoracek. QUESTIONABLE: RB Cedric Benson. Packers: OUT: OT Kevin Barry, S Marviel Underwood. QUESTIONABLE: RB William Henderson. LIMITED: RB Ahman Green*.

Many people are questioning Brett Favre’s return. By the time this game is over, everyone will be.

If you watched the Bengals-Packers preseason game, you know what Favre is all about – interceptions, fumbles and sacks. Guess what Chicago’s defense forces? With a non-existent running game and rain coming down on Lambeau Field, Favre will have to throw against the stingiest defense in the NFL. I’m expecting the Bears to register at least five sacks, three interceptions and two fumbles. One of Favre’s turnovers will be returned for a touchdown. Mark my words.

In two meetings against the Packers last year, Thomas Jones compiled 198 yards on just 44 carries. That’s 4.5 yards per rush. Green Bay’s defense has neither the talent nor tackling ability to keep Jones in check. Rex Grossman should also have some luck finding Muhsin Muhammad downfield; the young signal caller is 2-0 at Lambeau Field.

Sorry Packers fans, this one is going to be really ugly.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Bears have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Packers are 4-7 ATS in September home games since 2000.
  • Brett Favre is 8-2 ATS as a home underdog in his career.
  • Brett Favre is 14-8 ATS as an underdog since 2002.
  • Opening Line: Bears -3½.
  • Opening Total: 35.
  • Weather: Showers, 69 degrees. Mild wind: 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Thomas Jones, Muhsin Muhammad, Bears Defense.
  • Sit Em: Brett Favre, Ahman Green.

Prediction: Bears 24, Packers 7. (Bears -4).
Bonus Double Money Pick.
Correct: Bears 26, Packers 0.




Cowboys (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0). Line: Cowboys by 1. Over-Under: 36½.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Pick.


The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
Injuries: Cowboys: UNLIKELY TO PLAY: K Mike Vanderjagt*. QUESTIONABLE: OT Flozell Adams. Jaguars: OUT: RB Greg Jones, TE Marcedes Lewis, DT Marcus Stroud.

If you read my Countdown to Kickoff 2006 (available under TOP STORIES), you know that I think the Jaguars' 12-win 2005 season was a fluke. Ten of those victories came against the Steelers (without Ben Roethlisberger), Texans (twice), Titans (twice), 49ers, Browns, Cardinals, Ravens and Jets. The Cowboys are obviously much better than any of those squads.

One of the few areas where Dallas has an enormous mismatch is at wide receiver. Jacksonville does not have the personnel to defend Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten. Not too many teams do, but the Jaguars happen to be very thin at defensive back. To counter this, Jacksonville must put pressure on Drew Bledsoe. The Jaguars accumulated 47 sacks in 2005, but the Cowboys’ offensive line experienced a major upgrade with the additions of Jason Fabini and Kyle Kosier, and the return of Flozell Adams.

Meanwhile, here are a few words to describe Jacksonville’s offense this preseason: stagnant. Stale. Boring. Uninspired. The Jaguars’ starting unit failed to score this exhibition campaign because Fred Taylor averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, and the receivers couldn’t get open. Think Jacksonville can take back Jimmy Smith’s unceremonious retirement? Dallas’ defense, which has looked outstanding this preseason, should be able to put the clamps on a horrible offense.

I’m going against the trends I listed below, but let me address them. Jacksonville usually wins its season openers and September home games because it has a major advantage playing in a hot and humid climate. But Dallas is used to this. Let’s wait until next year to play these trends.


The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Extreme Line Movement: Teams that had the line change in their favor by three or more points were 3-8 ATS in 2005.
  • Jaguars are 11-3 ATS in September home games.
  • Jaguars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight season openers.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -2½.
  • Opening Total: 36½.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Drew Bledsoe, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, Cowboys Defense.
  • Sit Em: Mike Vanderjagt*, Byron Leftwich, Fred Taylor, Jaguars Defense.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Jaguars 13. (Cowboys -1).
Money Pick.
Incorrect: Jaguars 24, Cowboys 17.




Colts (0-0) at Giants (0-0). Line: Colts by 3½. Over-Under: 48.
Sunday, 8:15 ET
Walter's Game of the Week

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Colts -3.


The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Colts: OUT: DT Corey Simon. QUESTIONABLE: WR Brandon Stokley, TE Dallas Clark*, G Ryan Lilja, DE Dwight Freeney*, DE Josh Thomas, DT Montae Reagor, LB Gary Brackett, LB Rob Morris, LB Gilbert Gardner, CB Nick Harper, CB Jason David, S Michael Doss, K Adam Vinatieri*, P Hunter Smith. Giants: QUESTIONABLE: WR Sinorice Moss, OT Luke Petitgout, G Rich Seubert, C Shaun O'Hara.

Are you an optimist? Then this game features two brothers who might combine for 700 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. A pessimist? You’ll get a look at two quarterbacks who will be 0-2 in January.

Nevertheless, this contest will be an exciting shootout. Indianapolis should be able to score the entire evening; after all, the only thing that can stop the older Manning is a playoff game. Since we’re in September, I expect Peyton to hook up with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne for multiple scores. New York’s mediocre secondary will be torched all night. I must note that Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora may register a few sacks, but Peyton’s troubles usually occur against 3-4 defenses.

Indianapolis’ secondary, which will be missing Bob Sanders, and perhaps Nick Harper and Jason David, will be at the mercy of Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Amani Toomer and Tiki Barber. While Eli should be able to score enough points to keep up with his big brother, two developments you should watch for are the status of left tackle Luke Petitgout and center Shaun O’Hara, both of whom are questionable. If one of those linemen is out, the Giants will have severe problems keeping Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis out of the backfield.

Peyton has more to lose than Eli in this contest. If Eli suffers a defeat to the Colts, he simply just lost to his older brother. But if Peyton manages to get outscored by New York, he’ll have to live with the possibility that his younger sibling may have surpassed him. That has to give him extra motivation, right?


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Colts are 10-6 ATS vs. the NFC under Tony Dungy.
  • Giants were 7-3 ATS at home in 2005.
  • Opening Line: Colts -3.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 68 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Offenses.
  • Sit Em: Dallas Clark*, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Colts 38, Giants 31. (Colts -3½).
Correct: Colts 26, Giants 21.




Vikings (0-0) at Redskins (0-0). Line: Redskins by 4½. Over-Under: 36.
Monday, 7:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Redskins -4½.


The Game. Edge: Redskins.
Injuries: Vikings: OUT: LB Chad Greenway, S Tank Williams. Redskins: OUT: CB Shawn Springs. DOUBTFUL: RB Clinton Portis*. QUESTIONABLE: DE Renaldo Wynn.

Whoever designed this Monday night schedule must have either been intoxicated or had a personal vendetta against ESPN. Redskins-Vikings? Chargers-Raiders? I can hardly contain myself.

Here goes Snooze Fest No. 1. The Vikings won’t score much, if at all. They will obviously attempt to run Chester Taylor behind Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson. However that won’t work too well. Not only did Taylor gain just 2.6 yards per carry this preseason, but he’ll be smothered by one of the league’s top defenses. If only Minnesota would taken Laurence Maroney in the draft like I suggested. Anyway, Brad Johnson will be forced to convert a barrage of long-yardage situations, which is always difficult against Gregg Williams’ stop unit.

I don’t know if Washington was trying or not, but it failed to score more than 14 points in any preseason contest. Clinton Portis is hurt, while Mark Brunell looks 86 years old. Portis is questionable, but I believe he will not be available Monday night. That means the Redskins will be in the same position as the Vikings; a non-existent running game will place Brunell in unfavorable circumstances.

If Portis were available and 100 percent, I would probably side with the home team. But when a 4.5-point favorite’s best player isn’t on hand, I think you have to take the underdog.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Vikings are 10-19 ATS (4-25 SU) outdoors since 2001.
  • Redskins are 2-7 ATS in September home games since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -6.
  • Opening Total: 36½.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 65 degrees. Light wind.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jermaine Wiggins, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Chester Taylor, Vikings WRs, Clinton Portis*.

Prediction: Redskins 16, Vikings 13. (Vikings +4½).
Correct: Vikings 19, Redskins 16.




Chargers (0-0) at Raiders (0-0). Line: Chargers by 3. Over-Under: 43.
Monday, 10:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Chargers -3.


The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: Chargers: OUT: OT Roman Oben, LB Steve Foley. DOUBTFUL: OT Leander Jordan. QUESTIONABLE: DT Jacques Cesaire. Raiders: DOUBTFUL: C Jake Grove*.

There are three teams everyone is betting on this week: Denver, Seattle and San Diego. Is the public right? Are the books going to lose tons of money? The thought of that is actually pretty funny.

Of course I can’t blame everyone for liking the Chargers. Last year, LaDainian Tomlinson carved up Oakland’s pathetic defense for 226 yards and two touchdowns, while Antonio Gates caught six passes for 68 yards and a score. Tomlinson and Gates are still present, but Drew Brees isn’t. Philip Rivers will be starting in his first NFL road game, which could create problems. Don’t be surprised if Rivers fumbles a few times, or throws an interception here and there. Inexperienced signal callers rarely do well away from home. Just check out BETTING TRENDS if you don’t believe me.

San Diego’s defense suffered a huge hit when linebacker Steve Foley was inexplicably shot thrice outside of his house by an off-duty police officer. A distracted Chargers defense could permit a few extra yards to LaMont Jordan, setting up a few play-action passes for Aaron Brooks. Although San Diego selected Antonio Cromartie in the first round of April’s draft, they still don’t have anyone who can cover Randy Moss. Not like anyone else does.

Aside from the Rivers-on-the-road situation, this could be a must-win game for Oakland. San Diego has beaten the Raiders in five consecutive meetings, so Art Shell will have his team focused and ready to give 110 percent. Will that be enough? We’ll find out during Snooze Fest No. 2.

Monday Evening Note: Jake Grove is unlikely to play, but the Raiders have Adam Treu, one of the best backup centers in the NFL. I'm still on the Raiders, but no Money Pick.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Chargers have won the last 5 meetings.
  • Weak Arm: Philip Rivers is 0-0 ATS on the road.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Clear, 62 degrees. Mild wind: 15 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: LaDainian Tomlinson, Keenan McCardell, Antonio Gates, Randy Moss.
  • Sit Em: LaMont Jordan.

Prediction: Raiders 20, Chargers 17. (Raiders +3).
Incorrect: Chargers 27, Raiders 0.


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 3-3 (-$170)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 0-2 (-$880)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 2, 2014): 8-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 2, 2014): -$110

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-1, 0% (-$330)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 23-24-1, 48.9% (-$1,060)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 12-10, 54.5% (+$280)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 0-2, %0 (-$880)
2014 Season Over-Under: 18-13-1, 58.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$270

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
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2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,037-1,868-112, 52.2% (+$11,365)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 656-593-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-236-10 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 1559-1550-47 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 1-1
Bears: 0-2
Bucs: 1-1
49ers: 1-1
Eagles: 0-2
Lions: 1-1
Falcons: 0-2
Cardinals: 1-1
Giants: 2-0
Packers: 1-1
Panthers: 0-2
Rams: 1-1
Redskins: 1-1
Vikings: 1-1
Saints: 1-1
Seahawks: 1-1
Bills: 1-1
Bengals: 0-2
Colts: 0-2
Broncos: 1-1
Dolphins: 2-0
Browns: 2-0
Jaguars: 0-2
Chargers: 0-2
Jets: 1-1
Ravens: 0-2
Texans: 2-0
Chiefs: 2-0
Patriots: 2-0
Steelers: 1-1
Titans: 1-1
Raiders: 2-0
Divisional: 4-4 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 0-2 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 3-2 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 6-2 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 2-3 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 2-1 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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