Packers (6-5) at Lions (3-8). Line: Packers by 7. Over-Under: 44.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Packers by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Packers by 6.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
*** Darren Sharper and Nick Barnett are questionable for the Packers. Charles Rogers and Scotty Anderson are out for the Lions.

Because of Brett Favre's thumb, the Packers have run the ball the fourth most in the NFL. Ahman Green is having an outstanding year, averaging 5.4 yards a pop. The Lions have an average run defense at 14th in the NFL, so Green should be able to gain 100 yards in this game, but he won't be totally dominant. Favre threw three interceptions against the 49ers, mainly because of the cold rain. There won't be any rain inside Detroit's dome, so Favre should be fine.

Green Bay is 22nd against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. If Detroit had a good running back, they would be able to move the ball on this Packers' defense, but Shawn Bryson and Olandis Gary have been horrible. Against the worst run defense in the NFL (Minnesota), they managed to gain 40 yards on 17 carries. That's the main reason why Joey Harrington is not playing well.


The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Turkey Covers: Thanksgiving hosts are 6-2 ATS since 1999.
  • History: Packers have won 6 in a row.
  • Brett Favre is 8-28 in domes.
  • Line Movement: Packers -7 (open) to Packers -7 (11/23) to Packers -6 (11/24) to Packers -7 (11/26).
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 44 (11/23) to 44 (11/26).
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Ahman Green, Green Bay Defense.
  • Sit Em Olandis Gary, Shawn Bryson.

Prediction: Packers by 3. Bonus Double Money Pick. Over.




Dolphins (7-4) at Cowboys (8-3). Line: Cowboys by 3. Over-Under: 34.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Cowboys by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Cowboys by 4.

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
*** Zach Thomas, Larry Chester and Jamie Nails are questionable for the Dolphins.

If you've been reading my picks every week, you know what I'm going to say. Miami will try to run the ball often against this Dallas defense. Dallas' run defense is ranked 3rd, so its safe to say that Ricky Williams won't be getting anywhere. Jay Fiedler played great in relief last Sunday Night, but lets not get carried away here. After all, we're talking about Jay Fielder, who will be passing into the third best pass defense in the NFL.

As good as Dallas is against the run, Miami is better at it. The Dolphins are 2nd against the run, which is good for them, because Dallas has the third most carries in the NFL. As far as quarterback ratings are concerned, Miami is 4th against the pass, holding opposing quarterbacks to 68.5. On paper, that doesn't bode well for Quincy Carter, but I think Miami's defense can be beaten with the deep ball, and the Cowboys have the personnel to do it. Carter could hook up with Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn and Antonio Bryant quite a few times in this contest.


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Turkey Covers: Thanksgiving hosts are 6-2 ATS since 1999.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: After a tough comeback win against Washington, the Dolphins have the Patriots after this game.
  • Dolphins are 8-11 on the road since 2001.
  • Cowboys are 66-29 at home since 1992.
  • Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 34 (11/24).
  • Weather: Retractable Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn.
  • Sit Em Jay Fiedler, Ricky Williams, Troy Hambrick.

Prediction: Cowboys by 6. Bonus Double Money Pick. Under.




49ers (5-6) at Ravens (6-5). Line: Ravens by 3. Over-Under: 37.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Ravens by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Ravens by 4.

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
I don't know how this tired Baltimore defense will play this week, after that exhausting comeback against the Seahawks. San Francisco runs the ball often, but the Ravens are 4th against the run. Tim Rattay will have to throw the ball on lots of 2nd and 3rd and longs. The Ravens are ranked 10th against aerial attacks, but I don't think that statistic means much, because Matt Hasselbeck was able to throw for 330 yards and five touchdowns against Baltimore, without a successful running game. Baltimore will not be able to cover Terrell Owens.

Obviously, the 49ers will have to contain Jamal Lewis in order to win this game. They are 12th against the run, letting up 4.0 yards per carry, but they couldn't stop Ahman Green last week. Anthony Wright led Baltimore to a huge comeback on Sunday, but I don't think he can produce again. I'll count on the Niners shutting down the Ravens' passing game if they are somehow able to contain Jamal Lewis, because they'll be able to put tons of pressure on Wright.


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 2-10 ATS since 2002.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 6-15 ATS in 2003. Ravens made a huge comeback and won in overtime.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: After a huge comeback against Seattle, the Ravens have the Bengals after this non-divisional game.
  • Ravens are 18-11 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Ravens are 6-1 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 37 (11/23).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 53 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Terrell Owens, Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap.
  • Sit Em Garrison Hearst, Kevan Barlow, Anthony Wright, Travis Taylor.

Prediction: 49ers by 4. Under.




Eagles (8-3) at Panthers (8-3). Line: Panthers by 1. Over-Under: 36.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Panthers by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Panthers by 2.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
The biggest reason why Philadelphia has been winning is because they have been able to run the ball. Against New Orleans, they averaged 6.1 yards on 24 carries en route to a 33-20 victory. With a solid running game, Philly can take some pressure off of Donovan McNabb. However, Carolina is 10th against ground attacks, so the Eagles will not have the luxury of a solid running attack. Carolina's secondary was exposed by the Cowboys, but I don't think the Eagles have the personnel to beat the Panthers deep like Dallas did. Look for Donovan McNabb to be under immense pressure in this game.

Philadelphia can't stop the run. Last week, they allowed Deuce McAllister to run for nearly 10 yards per carry. The Cats have a better running attack than their cajun rivals, so they will give the Eagles' defense some problems. Stephen Davis will set up some play-action for an improving Jake Delhomme into Philly's mediocre pass defense.


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Eagles have covered 6 in a row.
  • Panthers are 3-5 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Panthers are 2-8 ATS (2-9 SU) in November since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -2 (open) to Panthers -1 (11/23).
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 36 (11/23).
  • Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Stephen Davis, Steve Smith, Carolina Defense.
  • Sit Em Philadelphia Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Panthers by 7. Over.




Cardinals (3-8) at Bears (4-7). Line: Bears by 4. Over-Under: 36.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Bears by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Bears by 4.

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
*** Chris Chandler is questionable.

Arizona is a different team on the road than they are at home. In fact, they've been pathetic away from Sun Devil Stadium, losing by an average margin of 22 points. In this game, they'll look to establish Marcel Shipp, and they will be able to, because Chicago has the fifth worst run defense in football. This will set up play-action Jeff Blake into an average pass defense, that has only sacked the opposing quarterback 13 times this season. Arizona only has allowed 19 sacks, so Jeff Blake might be untouched in this contest.

Most people don't know this, but Arizona is 8th against the run. They should be able to shut down Anthony Thomas, and force Kordell Stewart to throw on long yardage situations. If Chris Chandler didn't get hurt, I'd say that Chandler would be able to get the ball to his receivers, but I can't put any faith into Kordell. I will change this pick if I learn that Chris Chandler will start, so stay tuned.


The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 2-10 ATS since 2002.
  • Double Look-Ahead Alert: Bears might be looking ahead to two divisional games in the next 2 weeks (at Packers and vs. Vikings).
  • Cardinals are 23-69 on the road since 1992.
  • Cardinals are 0-5 ATS on the road this year.
  • Bears are 7-1 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 36 (11/23).
  • Weather: Cloudy, 51 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jeff Blake, Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin, Arizona Defense.
  • Sit Em Chris Chandler, Kordell Stewart, Anthony Thomas.

Prediction: Bears by 4. Over.




Falcons (2-9) at Texans (4-7). Line: Texans by 3. Over-Under: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Texans by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Texans by 3.

The Game. Edge: Texans.
*** Warrick Dunn is out for the year and Mike Vick is doubtful for the Falcons. David Carr is questionable for the Texans.

Notice the classic Atlanta Falcons logo up top; this is an effort to bring the classic logos back for this Thanksgiving weekend. If anyone knows where I can get the classic logos for every team, please contact me. Anyway, on to the game. Without Warrick Dunn, the Falcons will have trouble moving the chains. Houston is 20th against the run, but T.J. Duckett won't be effective, because Dunn gained most of his yardage by catching the ball. The Texans are 28th against the pass, because they can't get any pressure on the opposing quarterback. However, Doug Johnson can have all the time he wants, because he is not getting the ball to his receivers, who will be blanketed by two outstanding Houston cornerbacks. Without a checkdown like Warrick Dunn, there is no hope for Atlanta.

Atlanta is 29th against the ground game, and Domanick Davis has really stepped up to become one of the elite running backs in the NFL. Davis could go over 150, and it probably won't even matter who the Houston quarterback is, because the Falcons have one of the worst secondaries in football.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Falcons are 13-8 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Texans are 4-1 ATS in November home games since 2002.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Retractable Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Domanick Davis, Andre Johnson, Billy Miller.
  • Sit Em Atlanta Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Texans by 17. Under.




Patriots (9-2) at Colts (9-2). Line: Colts by 4. Over-Under: 43.
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Colts by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Colts by 3.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Many "experts" claim that Indianapolis has a great defense, but they don't. They have the third worst run defense in the NFL, and I feel that they will be exposed as we get closer to the playoffs. New England does not run the ball efficiently, but they do call running plays often, and they have shown that they can move the ball on the ground against poor run defenses. I also think that New England will be able to throw on a very average Colts' pass defense.

There are certain games I circle once the schedule comes out. I circled the Patriots in this spot because Bill Belichick has never lost to Peyton Manning. In fact, in their last two meetings, the Patriots were victorius 44-13 and 38-17. New England is 7th against the run, so Manning will have to throw into Belichick's complex defense on long yardage situations.


The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 6-15 ATS in 2003. Patriots won in overtime.
  • History: Patriots have won 2 in a row.
  • History: Patriots are 9-1 ATS at Indianapolis since 1992.
  • Colts are 8-13 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Colts -3 (open) to Colts -4 (11/23).
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 42 (11/23) to 43 (11/24).
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Tom Brady, Kevin Faulk, Deion Branch, New England Defense.
  • Sit Em Indianapolis Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Patriots by 28. Double Money Pick. BLOWOUT SPECIAL. Over.




Bills (4-7) at Giants (4-7). Line: Giants by 3. Over-Under: 35.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Giants by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Giants by 3.

The Game. Edge: Giants.
*** Jeremey Shockey is probable for the Giants.

What a disappointing season it has been for the Bills, who started off as the hottest team in football after two weeks. They'll look to establish the run with Travis Henry, who has not played well this season, which can be attributed to Buffalo's poor offensive line. The Giants defend the run fairly well, so Drew Bledsoe will be counted on to the move the chains in long yardage situations. Bledsoe has struggled this season because he is getting no protection from his offensive line. They've allowed 32 sacks this year, while the Giants have registered 30.

Like the Giants, the Bills also have a pretty good run defense. Its safe to say that Tiki Barber will not have his best game. Buffalo has a pretty solid pass defense as well, but I don't think they'll be able to defend Jeremey Shockey, who will be available for New York. Basically, look for lots of turnovers from each team in a very ugly game.


The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Bills are 1-4 ATS on the road this year.
  • Giants are 1-4 ATS at home this year.
  • Giants are 8-21 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Giants are 8-15 ATS as favorites since 2001.
  • Giants are 1-6 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 48 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jeremey Shockey, Giants Defense.
  • Sit Em Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry.

Prediction: Giants by 4. Under.




Bengals (6-5) at Steelers (4-7). Line: Steelers by 3. Over-Under: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Bengals by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Bengals by 1.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Everyone knows that the Steelers can't defend the pass, so Jon Kitna could easily throw for over 300 yards in this contest. Pittsburgh will not be able to bring in their nickle and dime packages often, because they also have to concentrate on stopping Cincinnati's two-headed running monster (Corey Dillon and Rudi Johnson). The Steelers defend the run very well, but like I said, they can't stop anyone's aerial attack.

Pittsburgh is attempting to run the ball more often, but they can't, because they have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Their 3.3 yards per carry isn't scaring anyone, and even though the Bengals are 25th against the run, they shouldn't have a problem stopping Jerome Bettis and Amos Zereoue. The Steelers' offensive line is also responsible for Tommy Maddox's apparent regression. They haven't been able to throw on anyone (except Arizona), because Maddox is always under immense pressure. Maddox has been sacked 29 times this season.


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 6-10 ATS.
  • History: Steelers have won 6 of last 7.
  • Steelers are 65-27 at home since 1992.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Showers, 52 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jon Kitna, Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Defense.
  • Sit Em Corey Dillon, Rudi Johnson, Pittsburgh Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Bengals by 3. Over.




Vikings (7-4) at Rams (8-3). Line: Rams by 6. Over-Under: 51.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Rams by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Rams by 4.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Minnesota finally won, alebit it was against one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Detroit Lions. If Mike Tice sticks to the running game, I think he can beat these Rams. St. Louis is only 24th against the run, and the Vikings should be able to gain 200 total rushing yards behind their mammoth offensive line. The Rams are pretty solid against the pass, but they might be so focused on stopping Michael Bennett and Moe Williams, that they will probably get beaten deep by Randy Moss.

I talked about how bad the Rams are against the run, but Minnesota is even worse. In fact, they are the only team that allows over 5 yards per carry. Marshall Faulk will most likely gain over 150 rushing yards. Marc Bulger has been off lately, and he even threw four interceptions against the Cardinals, of all teams. In come the Vikings, who have intercepted the most passes in the NFL this year (22). If Bulger starts throwing picks, Minnesota will win this game.


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 6-15 ATS in 2003. Rams won in overtime.
  • Rams are 4-0 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Rams -6 (open) to Rams -6 (11/25).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Michael Bennett, Randy Moss, Minnesota Defense, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce.
  • Sit Em St. Louis Defense.

Prediction: Vikings by 3. Money Pick. UPSET SPECIAL. Under.




Saints (5-6) at Redskins (4-7). Line: Redskins by 1. Over-Under: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Pick.

The Game. Edge: Saints.
*** Patrick Ramsey is questionable.

Deuce McAllister has been on fire recently, gaining 100 or more rushing yards in his last 8 games. It'll be nine after this Sunday. The Redskins did a pretty good job on Ricky Williams last week, but the Saints run the ball more effectively than the Dolphins. Aaron Brooks threw for 287 yards against the Eagles, and Washington's pass defense is ranked about the same as Philadelphia's. It'll be interesting how the weather will effect Brooks and the Saints. They are used to either playing inside their dome or outside in the heat, but it'll be 48 degrees in Washington on Sunday.

New Orleans is 27th against the pass, so this could be a rare good game for Trung Canidate. By the way, do you think Steve Spurrier regrets letting Stephen Davis go? Canidate could go over 100 yards in this contest. The Saints defend the pass slightly better than they do the run, which isn't saying much. If Patrick Ramsey can't go, it'll be Tim Hasselbeck, who looked pretty good against Miami last week. I think Hasselbeck should be the starter for the remainder of the season, because Patrick Ramsey could sustain an injury that will carry over into 2004. Hasselbeck showed a little scrambling ability, so until Washington improves their pass protection (Spurrier must go), he should start.


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: Saints play hated rival Tampa Bay after this game.
  • Redskins are 12-16 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Redskins are 3-1 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Redskins -1 (open) to Redskins -1 (11/24).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 48 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn, Trung Canidate, Laveraneus Coles.
  • Sit Em Donte' Stallworth, Patrick Ramsey, Tim Hasselbeck.

Prediction: Redskins by 3. Under.




Browns (4-7) at Seahawks (7-4). Line: Seahawks by 5. Over-Under: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Seahawks by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Seahawks by 5.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
*** William Green is out for the Browns.

Without William Green, Cleveland has no chance to run the ball. Seattle is 16th against the running game, but Jackson isn't a back who can break through their defense. The Seahawks are also 14th against the pass, and normally can keep opposing quarterbacks to minimal output in the first three quarters, but Seattle has been known to let teams back into the game, no matter what the defecit is. Something else to keep in mind is Seattle's mindset coming into this contest. Tampa Bay allowed Indianapolis to make a huge comeback against them, and they haven't been the same since. Seattle might also fall apart over the next few weeks.

Shaun Alexander figures to have a pretty good outing against this Cleveland run defense, which is ranked 23rd in the NFL. However, if Matt Hasselbeck has to throw, he'll be in trouble because the Browns have the fifth best pass defense in football. Only Kansas City was able to top 30 points against Cleveland since week 2, so this could be a pretty close game.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Browns are 12-7 ATS as road dogs of 3 points or more since 2000.
  • Browns are 13-9 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Browns are 5-3 ATS in November since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Seahawks -5 (open) to Seahawks -6 (11/23) to Seahawks -5 (11/25).
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 41 (11/23).
  • Weather: Cloudy, 46 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Kelly Holcomb, Shaun Alexander.
  • Sit Em James Jackson, Cleveland Receivers, Matt Hasselbeck.

Prediction: Seahawks by 3. Under.




Chiefs (10-1) at Chargers (2-9). Line: Chiefs by 7. Over-Under: 48.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Chiefs by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Chiefs by 7.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
Priest Holmes should have a big day because the Chargers can't stop the run. Look for Holmes to top 150, which will help out Trent Green, who might not even need Holmes to move the chains. San Diego has the worst pass defense in the NFL, because of their very young secondary.

I've pointed out the past couple of weeks that Kansas City can be beaten by running the football up the middle. LaDainian Tomlinson is one of the best running backs in the NFL, so if San Diego wants to win this game, they must stick to the running game, even if they get down by 14 early on. If they do that, they will be able to score enough points to cover the seven point spread against the Chiefs.


The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 6-15 ATS in 2003. Chiefs hit game-winning FG with 4 seconds left.
  • History: Home Team has won 10 of last 11.
  • Chargers are 40-44 at home since 1993.
  • Chargers are 10-18 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Chargers are 3-5 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Chiefs -7 (open) to Chiefs -6 (11/24) to Chiefs -7 (11/25).
  • Total Movement: 48 (open) to 48 (11/25).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 65 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, LaDainian Tomlinson.
  • Sit Em Doug Flutie, San Diego Defense.

Prediction: Chiefs by 6. Money Pick. Under.




Broncos (6-5) at Raiders (3-8). Line: Broncos by 3. Over-Under: 42.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Broncos by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Broncos by 2.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Oakland is only 26th against the run, which means Clinton Portis could have over 150 yards rushing. This will set up play-action Jake Plummer, who will bootleg and connect on deep throws to Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie. After all, the Raiders are 23rd against the pass and they have only registered 15 sacks this season, while Denver has given up only 19.

The Raiders' new M.O. is to run the ball with Charlie Garner, Zach Crockett and Tyrone Wheatley as much as possible. The past few weeks, they've been able to move the chains against the Jets, Minnesota and Kansas City, because they could not defend the run. Their luck has run out, because the Broncos are 11th against the run (Jets, Vikings and Chiefs are 17th, 32nd and 31st respectively). Denver will stop Oakland's running game, forcing Rick Mirer to beat them. That won't happen.


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Broncos have won 9 of last 13.
  • Raiders are 15-13 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Raiders are 6-1 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 43 (11/23) to 42 (11/24).
  • Weather: Showers, 61 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jake Plummer, Clinton Portis, Rod Smith, Denver Defense.
  • Sit Em Oakland Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Broncos by 10. Under.




Buccaneers (5-6) at Jaguars (2-9). Line: Buccaneers by 3. Over-Under: 37.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Buccaneers by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Buccaneers by 6.

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Mentally, I don't think Tampa Bay will be prepared for this game. You have to figure that they know they have to win out, and they've looked down their schedule and penciled this game in as a win. They have the Saints next week, and New Orleans has had their number, so they will be looking ahead.

Tampa Bay will not be able to run the ball, because Jacksonville has the top run defense in the NFL. If the Jaguars could get some players in their secondary, they could have one of the top defenses in the football. Brad Johnson will have to throw on long yardage situations, and he just can't do that, even against Jacksonville's pourous pass defense.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but if the Jaguars can run the ball, they can win this game. Its well documented that the Buccaneers can not stop teams that carry the football up the middle. Fred Taylor should have a great performance, which will assist Byron Leftwich, who will start this game, despite Jack Del Rio threatening to start David Garrard (you figure either ownership talked to him, or he listened to the negative reaction by the media and fans).


The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: After their win on Monday Night, Tampa Bay has New Orleans next week after this game against Jacksonville.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 37 (11/25).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 65 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Kevin Johnson, Jacksonville Defense.
  • Sit Em Tampa Bay Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Jaguars by 7. Money Pick. BONUS UPSET SPECIAL. Under.




Titans (9-2) at Jets (4-7). Line: Titans by 3. Over-Under: 42. MONDAY!

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 12 Games): Titans by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 12 Games): Titans by 6.

The Game. Edge: None.
*** Steve McNair, Jevon Kearse, Samari Rolle, Lance Schulters and Drew Bennett are questionable for the Titans. John Abraham is doubtful for the Jets.

Obviously, whether or not Steve McNair plays affects the outcome of this game. However, I think if McNair plays, the Titans will lose and if Billy Volek plays, the Titans will win. Before you send me off to the loony bin, listen to my reasoning. If Volek plays, every Titan will try his hardest to rally around him, similarly to the fashion that the 2002 Philadelphia Eagles did when Koy Detmer started at San Francisco on Monday Night. If McNair is able to play, Tennessee won't put forth as much effort, especially because they have the Colts next week.

I'm going to assume that Steve McNair will play, because he is a warrior. Unlike last week, Eddie George won't be able to run the ball effectively, because the Jets are 17th against the run (Falcons are 29th). Steve McNair will try to throw deep on this pathetic Jets' pass defense, but who knows how he'll play with his injured calf?

New York won't be running either, because Tennessee is excellent at defending the run. The Titans are ranked 17th against the pass, so Chad Pennington could connect with Santana Moss on occasion. Tennessee has registered 28 sacks this season, but they might be missing Jevon Kearse, as well as some players in their secondary, so Pennington could have all day to throw.


The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 6-10 ATS.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: After this game, the Titans play the Colts.
  • Titans are 46-40 on the road since 1993.
  • Jets are 9-19 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Jets are 3-3 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Titans -1 (open) to Titans -3 (12/1).
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 42 (12/1).
  • Weather: Showers, 40 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Chad Pennington, Santana Moss.
  • Sit Em Steve McNair (questionable), Eddie George, Curtis Martin.

Prediction: Jets by 4. Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team.


Cowboys: 5-5
Eagles: 5-6
Giants: 7-4
Redskins: 8-2

Bears: 7-3
Lions: 6-4
Packers: 4-7
Vikings: 8-3

Buccaneers: 6-5
Falcons: 7-4
Panthers: 7-4
Saints: 6-5

49ers: 5-5
Cardinals: 5-6
Rams: 4-6
Seahawks: 5-6

Bills: 2-7
Dolphins: 5-6
Jets: 7-2
Patriots: 7-4

Bengals: 5-6
Browns: 3-8
Ravens: 5-6
Steelers: 5-6

Colts: 6-4
Jaguars: 7-4
Texans: 7-4
Titans: 6-5

Broncos: 8-3
Chargers: 5-6
Chiefs: 4-7
Raiders: 4-6

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1 5 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 3-3 (+$480)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 1-1 (+$60)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2014): 8-7 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2014): -$220

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$1,070)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 96-90-6, 51.6% (+$245)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 35-29, 54.7% (+$1,280)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 7-10-1, 41.2% (-$1,200)
2014 Season Over-Under: 97-76-2, 56.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,030

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,110-1,934-116, 52.2% (+$12,660)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 679-612-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 283-244-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,638-1,613-48 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 4-7
Bears: 5-6
Bucs: 8-3
49ers: 4-6
Eagles: 7-4
Lions: 3-7
Falcons: 6-5
Cardinals: 6-5
Giants: 3-8
Packers: 8-2
Panthers: 5-6
Rams: 5-6
Redskins: 8-3
Vikings: 9-2
Saints: 4-6
Seahawks: 5-6
Bills: 4-7
Bengals: 4-8
Colts: 6-5
Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 7-3
Browns: 6-3
Jaguars: 6-5
Chargers: 3-8
Jets: 6-5
Ravens: 4-6
Texans: 5-6
Chiefs: 7-3
Patriots: 5-6
Steelers: 6-5
Titans: 6-3
Raiders: 3-8
Divisional: 24-24* (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 11-14 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 16-19 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-30 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 26-12* (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 8-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick 2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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