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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2009



NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)

NFL Picks (2009): 40-23-2 (+$4,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Vegas betting action updated Oct. 5, 4:20 p.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 4 - Early Games
Lions at Bears, Bengals at Browns, Seahawks at Colts, Giants at Chiefs, Ravens at Patriots, Buccaneers at Redskins, Titans at Jaguars, Raiders at Texans

NFL Picks Week 4 - Late Games
Jets at Saints, Bills at Dolphins, Cowboys at Broncos, Rams at 49ers, Chargers at Steelers, Packers at Vikings

BYE: Falcons, Cardinals, Panthers, Eagles




Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons could make the playoffs this year, but teams with high-powered offenses and terrible defenses are usually overrated because the public loves to bet on them. This allows Vegas to set the line 1-3 points higher than it should be.

2. Dallas Cowboys - Once again, teams with prolific offenses and awful defenses get tons of public money, allowing the oddsmakers to bump up the spread by a few points. The Cowboys are hopeless against the run unless they completely sell out on it. We all saw what happened when they did that against the Giants.

3. Houston Texans - The Texans are another great offensive team that can't stop anything. The public loves to lay its money on high-powered offenses, so the oddsmakers will be setting Houston lines higher than they should be against inferior teams.

4. Arizona Cardinals - I've harped on this a lot. Kurt Warner is a 38-year-old man coming off hip surgery. Warner has also only had one healthy season since 2001. He looked terrible against the 49ers and Colts, and even in his record-setting performance against the Jaguars, his longest pass was just 22 yards. The deep ball is gone.



Get Free Sports Picks from the Advisory Board at Doc's Sports. Expert picks from: Doc - Robert Ferringo - Strike Point Sports - Allen Eastman and Vegas Sports Informer - Indian Cowboy. All picks come with detailed analysis and are 100% guaranteed.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Denver Broncos - The Broncos haven't legitimately beaten anyone yet, but they've played great defense thus far, even holding the Bengals to seven points. No one wants to bet on Kyle Orton. I can't blame them because Orton is terrible, but Denver's offensive line and running game are among the league's elite.

2. San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers are going to cover a lot of games this year. The line in their games will always be low because no one wants to bet on Shaun Hill. But San Francisco runs the ball incredibly well and plays very tough defense. The players are now tough and have completely embodied Mike Singletary's attitude.

3. Cincinnati Bengals - The average football fan sees the Bengals as an offensive juggernaut now that Carson Palmer is back. However, most people don't know that Cincinnati finished 12th in overall defense last year. It's no coincidence that the Bengals held Denver to just six points until the very end. Even limiting the Packers and Steelers to 24 and 20 points is no easy feat.













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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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