Giants (7-8) at Redskins (5-10). Line: Giants by 2½. Over-Under: 42½.
Saturday, 8:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Giants -1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Giants -1.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Giants: OUT: WR Amani Toomer (IR), OT Luke Petitgout, LB LaVar Arrington (IR). DOUBTFUL: G Rich Seubert, QUESTIONABLE: TE Jeremy Shockey*, DE Michael Strahan*. Redskins: OUT: RB Clinton Portis.

All I have to say is: Thank God Christmas is over. One of the places I work at insisted on ceaselessly playing Christmas music 24/7. I swear I’ve listened to “White Christmas” and “Jingle Bell Rock” at least 60,000 times. In fact, I’m pretty confident that I can write Frosty the Snowman’s biography. I almost lost it – I nearly rammed a pair of Christmas tree ornaments into both of my ears.

I nearly repeated that action watching the Giants crap their pants against the Saints last week. I wrote “nearly” because I had New Orleans. Actually, I was laughing hysterically, as Tom Coughlin looked so angry that I thought he was going to pull a chainsaw out of his pocket and slice some of his players in half. I can’t blame him; Eli Manning is about as accurate as a drunk playing darts, while his receivers drop passes like there’s no tomorrow. Washington’s defense is pitiful in every way – you saw what the Rams did to them last week – but if Eli’s struggles continue, it won’t really matter.

I’m not really sure if New York’s defense is any better; it can neither stop the run nor the pass. The Giants are actually sixth against the former, but that’s misleading because the Saints, Eagles and Cowboys all gashed them on the ground. Ladell Betts, who has had a monstrous second half in relief of Clinton Portis, will trample New York’s stop unit, giving Jason Campbell many play-action opportunities.

I haven’t seen any team stumble like the Giants have since the 2002 Saints. The only team they beat since Nov. 5 was the Jake Delhome-less Panthers. Please don’t think Washington won’t show up because it’s not in the playoff hunt; the Redskins hate New York, and would love to knock them out of postseason contention.


The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
This new section of my predictions will explore the mindset of each team, and how much the game means to both participants.

The Giants need a victory to get into the playoffs, but the way they're playing right now, I don't think they want to qualify for the postseason. Washington would love to knock its rival out of the race.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
This new section of my predictions will how each game is being bet. In some cases, I'll attempt to explain the public perception.

  • Percentage of money on New York: 73% (19,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
    • History: Home Team has won the last 5 meetings.
    • Opening Line: Giants -1.
    • Opening Total: 43.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 39 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Tiki Barber, Ladell Betts, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley.
    • Sit Em: Jeremy Shockey*, Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Redskins 35, Giants 24. (Redskins +2½).
    Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Giants 34, Redskins 28.




    Steelers (7-8) at Bengals (8-7). Line: Bengals by 6. Over-Under: 44.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Bengals -4½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Bengals -7.

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.
    Injuries: Steelers: OUT: OT Max Starks, LB Clark Haggans, S Ryan Clark. Bengals: OUT: RB Chris Perry (PUP), G Bobbie Williams, LB David Pollack (IR), LB Odell Thurman (SUSP), CB Rashad Bauman (IR). DOUBTFUL: C Rich Braham.

    Because Cincinnati has a few loud-mouth receivers, let me talk about Terrell Owens for a second. Did anyone hear what he said following his team’s loss to Philadelphia on Christmas? It went something like this: “I couldn’t get in the flow of the game because I didn’t get any balls thrown to me early.” Awww poor little T.O. wasn’t happy because he didn’t get any balls, awww. Does little T.O. want some balls? Does he? Poor little T.O. needs to learn how to share his balls. If T.O. shares his balls, he will make friends easily. Little Terry Glenn wants little T.O. to share his balls. OK, sickos, I was talking about footballs. By the way, I imagine this is what Owens’ children’s book is like. I should write his next one for him.

    Unlike Owens, the Steelers have been playing really hard the past few weeks because they had an outside shot at the playoffs. Now that they’re eliminated, you have to wonder if they’ll show up to this game. Given their veteran leadership and Bill Cowher’s coaching prowess, I think they’ll give 100 percent – although you never know. The Bengals aren’t terrible against the run, but they aren’t great either; they surrendered 133 yards to Willie Parker in a Week 3 meeting. Parker should be able to duplicate that performance, setting up play-action opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger. The Steeler signal caller threw three picks in that aforementioned contest, as he was still shaky from the motorcycle accident and the appendectomy. Things will be different this time around.

    Carson Palmer has always had success playing Pittsburgh because Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry offer too much speed and athleticism for the Steelers’ secondary to handle. We’ve all seen how much Pittsburgh has struggled against aerial attacks this year. That will continue on Sunday. Rudi Johnson will keep Pittsburgh honest.

    These teams seem evenly matched, and in a normal week, the line would be three. However, it’s no secret that Cincinnati needs a victory much more than Pittsburgh. We don’t even know if the Steelers are going to give it their all this week.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    The Bengals won't know the Jets-Raiders result because that game will be taking place the same time as this one. Thus, they need a victory.

    The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 60% (29,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
    • History: Road Team has won the last 5 meetings.
    • Ben Roethlisberger is 33-11 as a starter (27-17 ATS).
    • Ben Roethlisberger is 8-4 ATS as an underdog.
    • Opening Line: Bengals -6.
    • Opening Total: 44½.
    • Weather: Rain, 58 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
    • Sit Em: Rudi Johnson, Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Bengals 31, Steelers 21. (Bengals -6).
    Incorrect: Steelers 23, Bengals 17.




    Lions (2-13) at Cowboys (10-5). Line: Cowboys by 12½. Over-Under: 44.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Cowboys -12.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Cowboys -14.

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: Lions: OUT: WR Scottie Vines (PUP), G Damien Woody, DE James Hall (IR), DT Shaun Rogers (IR), LB Teddy Lehman (PUP), CB Fernando Bryant, S Idrees Bashir. QUESTIONABLE: KR Eddie Drummond. Cowboys: OUT: LB Greg Ellis, S Marcus Coleman (CUT), KR Tyson Thompson (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Jay Ratliff, CB Jacques Reeves.

    Poor Emilio Estevez; he’s trying so hard to turn it around in Detroit, but the fans keep wearing the opposing team’s colors, leaving their seats and protesting outside – and all the organization can do is hand out “Go Lions” stickers. To make matters worse, Lions fans have threatened to nuke Matt Millen’s house next year. Will Emilio be able to turn things around in the Motor City? Find out by watching the Mighty Lions -- coming to theatres in 2007!

    There isn’t much to say about this game. If the Cowboys have any kind of heart, they will rebound off their embarrassing performance against Philadelphia on Christmas. Unlike the Eagles, Detroit won’t be able to run the ball – Kevin Jones is out – so Jon Kitna will be asked to throw early and often. The Cowboys don’t have the greatest secondary in the world, but they’ll receive help from a decent pass rush that should be able to pulverize Kitna, who has been sacked 58 times this year.

    The defense showing up is one part of the equation. Tony Romo needs to focus on winning football games instead of dating Jessica Simpson, Carrie Underwood, Roseanne Barr, and whomever else he’s wining and dining. Not that that’s not important; there’s just time for it in the offseason. Seriously though, Detroit’s defense has the trifecta of futility; it can neither stop the run nor the pass, nor get to the quarterback. Julius Jones and Marion Barber III will combine for at least 150 yards, giving Romo ample time to throw.

    This number is really high, but I like the Cowboys; they don’t need a win if they don’t care about the division, but Bill Parcells-coached teams usually bounce back from losses.


    The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
    The Cowboys still have a shot at the NFC East. It's just a matter of how much they want it.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 50% (34,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
    • Lions are 1-6 ATS on the road in 2006.
    • Cowboys are 11-1 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.
    • Cowboys are 20-10 ATS as a favorite under Bill Parcells.
    • Cowboys are 5-0 ATS after a loss in 2006.
    • Bill Parcells is 6-1 ATS in home finales.
    • Tony Romo is 6-3 as a starter (5-3 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Cowboys -13.
    • Opening Total: 47.
    • Weather: Sunny, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Roy Williams, Cowboys Offense and Defense.
    • Sit Em: Lions Defense.

    Prediction: Cowboys 34, Lions 17. (Cowboys -12½).
    Incorrect: Lions 39, Cowboys 31.




    Browns (4-11) at Texans (5-10). Line: Texans by 5. Over-Under: 37½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Texans -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Texans -3.

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Browns: OUT: C LeCharles Bentley (IR), C Alonzo Ephraim, DE Orpheus Roye, LB D'Qwell Jackson, CB Gary Baxter. QUESTIONABLE: QB Charlie Frye, TE Kellen Winslow Jr. Texans: OUT: RB Domanick Davis (IR), OT Charles Spencer (IR), OT Zach Wiegert (IR), DE Anthony Weaver, LB Kailee Wong (PUP), CB DeMarcus Faggins. QUESTIONABLE: TE Owen Daniels.

    Since we’re dealing with Derek Anderson and David Carr, let me talk about another crappy quarterback: Drew Bledsoe. The following is from Bledsoe’s blog: “The starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys is NOT Tony Romo. In fact, his REAL name is Antonio Ramiro Romo! That’s right. Mr. ALL American isn’t all American. He’s partly Mexican!!! Now, before you guys send me any e-mails accusing me of being a racist, I want you to know that I have NO problems with Mexicans. Some of my BEST housekeepers are Mexican (or el Salvadorian or whatever) … This isn’t a matter of Mexican vs. Not Mexican. This is a matter of trust and honesty. Simply put, Antonio Ramiro Romo is a dishonest, lying Mexican”

    Thanks for the analysis, Bledsoe. Let’s make this quick. I expect both offenses to score in the 20s. I don’t care who’s starting for Cleveland; the Texans haven’t held anyone to less than 24 points since Nov. 12, with the exception of the Raiders. Even if Derek Anderson is under center, he proved he can move the chains with his performance against Baltimore. As for Houston, we watched its offense put up 27 on Indianapolis. It helps that both defenses are in the bottom 10 against both the run and the pass, and neither can get to the quarterback.

    So, who has the edge? Cleveland – by a long shot. The Texans are coming off their most important victory in franchise history; it took them five years, but they finally beat Indianapolis. Some of their players were crying after the game. There’s no way they even come close to matching that intensity in this contest.


    The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
    The Texans were crying after they finally beat the Colts last week. There's no way they win this game.

    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
  • Percentage of money on Houston: 82% (19,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 60-85 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; TEXANS kicked a GW FG as time expired.
    • Weak Arm: Ken Dorsey is 2-4 ATS on the road.
    • Texans are 5-16 ATS after a win.
    • Opening Line: Texans -4.
    • Opening Total: 39.
    • Weather: Retractable Roof.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, Kellen Winslow Jr., Browns Defense, Andre Johnson.
    • Sit Em: David Carr, Ron Dayne, Texans Defense.

    Prediction: Browns 34, Texans 20. (Browns +5).
    Double Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Texans 14, Browns 6.




    Jaguars (8-7) at Chiefs (8-7). Line: Chiefs by 2½. Over-Under: 36½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET
    Walter's Game of the Week

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Chiefs -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Chiefs -3.

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
    Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: QB Byron Leftwich, RB Greg Jones (IR), DE Reggie Hayward (IR), LB Mike Peterson (IR), S Donovin Darius (IR). DOUBTFUL: S Deon Grant. Chiefs: OUT: OT John Welbourn (RET), OT Kevin Sampson, OT Kyle Turley, G Brian Waters, DT John Browning (IR), LB Derrick Johnson.

    I was pleased to see that one of the gifts I got this year was a Nintendo Wii. That totally beat a present my mom got for me about three years ago. I unwrapped a box and found… an alarm clock. A stinkin’ alarm clock. And this wasn’t an ordinary alarm clock – it was one that I couldn’t figure out how to use. Furthermore, the numbers on the clock were so bright that I couldn’t get to sleep. So, in short, this alarm clock kept me awake at night, and prevented me from waking up in the morning. Fantastic.

    I have to say I was disappointed in Jacksonville last week. Not because it lost to the Patriots; but because David Garrard didn’t have any carries in the first half. Garrard’s greatest attribute is his scrambling ability. Why isn’t he utilizing it more? Whether he does or not could determine the outcome of this game. Kansas City is ranked 17th against the run, so I believe Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will be able to muster something on the ground. That’ll set up play-action opportunities for Garrard. If the Chiefs want to keep Jacksonville’s offense in check, they’ll have to put immense pressure on Garrard. That could be a problem; he has been sacked just 27 times this year.

    As great as Kansas City’s offense is billed, it’s really just a one-trick pony – and that’s obviously Larry Johnson. However, Johnson will be confronted with the league’s fifth-ranked run defense. Johnson will still eclipse the 100-yard barrier, but it may take him 30 carries to do so. Trent Green, who has been shaky since returning from injury, will be stuck in a plethora of obvious passing situations, allowing Jacksonville to tee off on him. A key matchup will be right tackle John Welbourn versus the Jaguars’ top pass rusher, Bobby McCray (9 sacks).

    The Jaguars are slightly better than the Chiefs, but Arrowhead neutralizes that advantage. I’m looking at two things here: Jacksonville usually wins when it’s supposed to lose, and the public is all over Kansas City. Let’s go with the underdog.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    It's do-or-die for both squads.

    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Percentage of money on Kansas City: 66% (23,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
    • Chiefs are 11-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Chiefs are 9-2 SU in their final home game since 1994.
    • Opening Line: Chiefs -1.
    • Opening Total: 37½.
    • Weather: Showers, 50 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Jaguars Defense, Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez.
    • Sit Em: David Garrard, Trent Green.

    Prediction: Jaguars 13, Chiefs 10. (Jaguars +2½).
    Incorrect: Chiefs 35, Jaguars 30.




    Rams (7-8) at Vikings (6-9). Line: Rams by 3. Over-Under: 43.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Vikings -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Rams -3.

    The Game. Edge: Rams.
    Injuries: Rams: OUT: OT Orlando Pace (IR), G Claude Terrell (IR), C Andy McCollum (IR), LB Pisa Tinoisamoa. Vikings: OUT: FB Tony Richardson, DE Erasmus James (IR), LB Chad Greenway (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Troy Williamson, P Chris Kluwe.

    I was looking for the Rams’ playoff scenario on stltoday.com on Tuesday, but all I could find was an article titled, “Rams OT win is a sign of progress.” Yeah, progress… that’s it. Congratulations, Rams fans. Your team just beat a crappy 5-10 squad in overtime – and you were at home. That’s some great progress there. You should be proud.

    Seriously, what kind of progress are they talking about? The Rams have always been a scoring machine with defensive deficiencies. That’s what they looked like against Washington. Here’s the bottom line: they couldn’t stop Jason Campbell and Ladell Betts from scoring 31 points. Tarvaris Jackson and Chester Taylor aren’t any better, but I guess it doesn’t matter. Taylor and Jackson will trample a unit ranked 31st against the run. Jackson should be able to capitalize with a few play-action passes downfield; he had trouble throwing in the rainy Lambeau last week, but his dome should be more inviting.

    Let’s see what Scott Linehan comes up with. If he reverts to Mike Martz’s style of offense, he will win; the Vikings are horrendous against aerial attacks. However, if Linehan is determined to get Steven Jackson his fair share of carries, the Rams could be in trouble, given that Minnesota is ranked first in the run-stopping department. I never thought St. Louis could miss Martz.

    I know the Rams need this contest more than the Vikings do, but I’m sure they’re aware that they need three other teams to lose. That’s not going to happen – and I think they know that.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Rams can get into the playoffs with a win and the following: A Giants LOSS, a Panthers LOSS and a Falcons LOSS.

    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
  • Percentage of money on St. Louis: 84% (26,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 60-85 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; RAMS won in OT.
    • Rams are 12-26 ATS in road games since 2001.
    • Rams are 5-8 ATS on the road since 2005.
    • Vikings are 9-6 ATS at home since 2005.
    • Opening Line: Rams -1.
    • Opening Total: 44½.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Chester Taylor.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Vikings 27, Rams 24. (Vikings +3).
    Incorrect: Rams 41, Vikings 21.




    Panthers (7-8) at Saints (10-5). Line: Panthers by 3. Over-Under: 37½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Saints -8.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Saints -3.

    The Game. Edge: Panthers.
    Injuries: Panthers: OUT: OT Travelle Wharton (IR), C Justin Hartwig, DT Jordan Carstens, LB Dan Morgan. QUESTIONABLE: LB Thomas Davis. Saints: OUT: G Jermaine Mayberry (IR), DT Hollis Thomas (SUSP), LB Tommy Polley (IR), LB James Allen (IR), P Mitch Berger (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Joe Horn*. QUESTIONABLE: S Omar Stoutmire.

    I’ve been complaining about John Fox’s play-calling for weeks because he simply ran the ball too much. Well, it finally worked. Fox kept calling running plays, and it kept working against the Falcons. In fact, he signaled for the same play seven times on third down, which didn’t even call for a quarterback. Fox was living the dream against Jim Mora Jr., who apparently was dreaming about the University of Washington.

    If Fox feels like running the ball every single play, it may work for two reasons: The Saints are 30th against opposing ground attacks, and Sean Payton may rest his starters. In an Oct. 1 matchup, DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams combined for 167 yards and a touchdown. The two backs will have similar success, giving Jake Delhomme enough time to find Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson downfield. And yes, Delhomme is back, so Fox may actually use a quarterback in his offensive formations.

    It’s difficult to gauge what the Saints will do on offense because we have no idea if Payton will rest his starters or not. But since New Orleans doesn’t have anything to play for, I think it’ll have problems generating a solid rushing attack. Carolina limited Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush to 61 yards on 22 carries in their previous meeting anyway. If Drew Brees plays the entire game, the Saints will score their points.

    Like I said, we have no idea what Payton will do because he’s a first-year coach. But keep this in mind: New Orleans was really flat following a huge victory at Dallas, and consequently lost to Washington. I believe they will be just as sluggish after a win at the Meadowlands, even if the starters play 60 minutes. If the Giants win on Saturday night, which will eliminate the Panthers from the playoffs, this pick will be changed. Stay tuned.


    The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
    If the Giants lose, the Panthers will be alive, but they'll need two things: 1. A victory against the Saints; 2. A Green Bay loss against Chicago. This pick will be changed if the Giants WIN.

    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 76% (22,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
    • History: Road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 70-56 ATS on the road following a road win (John Fox 1-3).
    • Saints are 16-28 ATS at home since 2001.
    • Saints are 6-14 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Panthers -3.
    • Opening Total: 37.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Smith, Panthers Defense (all if Giants lose).
    • Sit Em: Both Offenses and Defenses (if Giants win).

    Prediction: Panthers 26, Saints 20. (Panthers -3).
    Correct: Panthers 31, Saints 21.




    Raiders (2-13) at Jets (9-6). Line: Jets by 11½. Over-Under: 34.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Jets -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Jets -13.

    The Game. Edge: Jets.
    Injuries: Raiders: OUT: RB LaMont Jordan (IR), WR Jerry Porter, DE Lance Johnstone, LB Grant Irons. QUESTIONABLE: QB Aaron Brooks, FB Zack Crockett, WR Randy Moss*. Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: RB Kevan Barlow, RB Cedric Houston, FB B.J. Askew, WR Laveranues Coles, CB Andre Dyson, CB David Barrett, S Kerry Rhodes, S Eric Smith.

    A brief summary of the 2006 Raiders season (if your browser contracts the picture, you will have to expand it to read the text): Click Here.

    Has anyone brought up the possibility that Andrew Walter is color-blind? Maybe that’s why he’s throwing to and handing the ball off to the other team. That would explain a lot. Unfortunately, Art Shell is too asleep to notice this. Walter will continue to be responsible for lots of turnovers, sacks and bad passes. New York’s defensive weakness is against the run; Oakland can’t expose that.

    The Raiders’ stop unit has been solid this year, but I don’t think they’re designed to stop a team like the Jets, who utilize a lot of quick passes and receiver screens. I expect Eric Mangini to get Leon Washington involved early and often; his 64-yard scamper single-handedly propelled New York over Miami.

    There’s a chance Oakland doesn’t show up. Stop laughing – I’m talking about the defense. Think about it: It’s cold. It’s early for them. The defense is fed up with the offense’s ineptitude. The season is over by 4:15 Eastern. A lot of the guys won’t be back – including Shell, whom the team doesn’t respect. I’m counting on a quit factor.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
    If the Jets win, they're in. It's that simple. I don't think the Raiders want to play this early game in the cold.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
  • Percentage of money on Oakland: 53% (28,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 60-85 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; JETS kicked a GW FG with 10 seconds left.
    • Early Game Alert: Art Shell is 0-2 ATS in 1 p.m. games on the East Coast (all coaches 16-26 ATS since 2003).
    • Weak Arm: Andrew Walter is 1-2 ATS on the road. ???
    • Opening Line: Jets -13.
    • Opening Total: 36.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 47 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Jets Defense.
    • Sit Em: Raiders Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Jets 27, Raiders 0. (Jets -11½).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Jets 23, Raiders 3.




    Seahawks (8-7) at Buccaneers (4-11). Line: Buccaneers by 3. Over-Under: 37.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Seahawks -3½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Seahawks -3.

    The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: C Robbie Tobeck, DT Marcus Tubbs, S Mike Green (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Darrell Jackson*, CB Marcus Trufant. Buccaneers: OUT: QB Chris Simms, DT Anthony McFarland (TRADE). DOUBTFUL: TE Alex Smith, CB Alan Zemaitis. QUESTIONABLE: RB Cadillac Williams*, G Davin Joseph, DT Ellis Wyms, CB Juran Bolden, S Jermaine Phillips.

    Did anyone catch the Apprentice commercials during the Eagles-Cowboys game? The promo went something like this, “This year, the losers will be sleeping in tents!” Ummm… yeah… tents… great… I’ll be tuning in for sure…? It’s a shame money can’t by creativity. Next year, Donald Trump will put the losers in houses made out of candy, occupied by a cannibal witch. Can’t wait for that.

    Speaking of something that has nothing to do with cannibal witches, there’s a great chance that we may see Seneca Wallace, Maurice Morris and Seattle’s other backups in this game. I’ll reference last year’s finale against Green Bay; the Seahawks played their starters until Shaun Alexander broke the short-lived single-season touchdown record. I have a feeling both he and Matt Hasselbeck will be gone midway through the second quarter. Once that happens, Tampa Bay’s defense will dominate this side of the ball.

    As for the other side, I’m not really sure if it matters that Seattle might be playing its reserves; the team cannot stop the run. Cadillac Williams will easily eclipse the 100-yard barrier, permitting Tim Rattay to orchestrate a few play-action passes downfield. Rattay has played rather well in relief of Bruce Gradkowski. It makes me wonder why Jon Gruden didn’t go with Rattay once he saw that Gradkowski will be nothing more than a journeyman.

    I’ll make this easy: Seattle’s backups + early game for the Seahawks on the East Coast + tons of public money on the visitor = Double Money Pick on the Buccaneers.


    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    This game is insignificant to both parties; we may see Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris by the second quarter.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 78% (24,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
    • Early Game Alert: Mike Holmgren is 0-7 ATS in 1 p.m. games on the East Coast since 2003 (all coaches 16-26).
    • Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their road finale since 1996.
    • Seahawks are 1-6 ATS on the road in 2006.
    • Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.
    • Opening Total: 38.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 83 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Cadillac Williams, Joey Galloway, Buccaneers Defense.
    • Sit Em: Seahawks Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Seahawks 13. (Buccaneers -3).
    Double Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 7.




    Patriots (11-4) at Titans (8-7). Line: Titans by 3. Over-Under: 41.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Patriots -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Patriots -3.

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: Patriots: OUT: LB Junior Seau (IR), S Rodney Harrison, S Eugene Wilson, S Mel Mitchell, P Ken Walter. QUESTIONABLE: RB Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson*, OT Ryan O'Callaghan, DT Vince Wilfork. Titans: OUT: WR David Givens (IR), TE Ben Troupe, DE Antwan Odom, DT Rien \ Long (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Travis Henry*, TE Bo Scaife*, DT Robaire Smith.

    On NFL Primetime, Merril Hoge was asked if Vince Young should be the offensive rookie of the year. Here’s what he said: “No, way. You gotta play at least 15 games.” (Translation: “I hate Vince Young.”) “Reggie Bush has played three different positions.” (Translation: “I will nuke Vince Young’s house, and my argument completely nullifies any quarterback from winning the Rookie of the Year because they only play one position! Ha!”) “You have to make more than a few game-changing plays like Vince Young a couple of times.” (Translation: “Vince Young is the anti-Christ, and I’m running out of things to say so maybe I should respond to Sean Salisbury’s argument by saying, ‘Factor back! Factor back! Factor back!’ After all, this means ‘hello,’ ‘goodbye’ and ‘Vince Young is a loser’ in my native tongue.”)

    There’s no doubt Young should be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s single-handedly carrying the Titans – and not just with his legs anymore; Young was 13-of-20 for 183 yards and two touchdowns last week. I don’t think a lackadaisical Patriots defense will be able to contain him. Read on to find out why I think New England will be sluggish.

    You know how I always state that the Patriots do the bare minimum to win? Well, this game epitomizes that rule. The Patriots are essentially locked into the No. 4 seed unless Indianapolis loses to Miami, which is improbable. Thus, Bill Belichick will likely give Matt Cassel and Vinny Testaverde some action. This also means Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney will be on the bench in the second half. If I’m right – Belichick did this last year – New England won’t have much luck scoring.

    The Titans need a victory to stay alive in the playoff race. The Patriots will play their reserves in the second half. With that in mind, the public is backing New England. I love Tennessee in this spot. By the way, if you didn't take the Falcons as a Survivor Pick this week, I'll make the Titans my final Survivor Pick, even though I'm eliminated.


    The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
    The Patriots are locked into the No. 4 seed unless the Colts somehow lose to the Dolphins. I think the Patriots are smart enough to know that won't happen. We may see Matt Cassel or Vinny Testaverde.

    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 75% (27,000)

    The Trends. Edge: TBA.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 69-56 ATS on the road following a road win (Bill Belichick 2-3).
    • Weak Arm: Matt Cassel is 0-0 ATS on the road. ???
    • Tom Brady is 79-24 as a starter (63-38 ATS). ???
    • Vince Young is 8-4 as a starter (10-2 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Titans -3.
    • Opening Total: 43.
    • Weather: Rain, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Vince Young, Travis Henry, Titans Defense.
    • Sit Em: Patriots Starters.

    Prediction: Titans 31, Patriots 17. (Titans -3).
    Double Money Pick.
    Survivor Pool Pick (15-1)
    Incorrect: Patriots 40, Titans 23.




    Bills (7-8) at Ravens (12-3). Line: Ravens by 9½. Over-Under: 35.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Ravens -7½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Ravens -11.

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    Injuries: Bills: OUT: G Chris Villarrial, S Troy Vincent (CUT). Ravens: OUT: G Edwin Mulitalo (IR), PR B.J. Sams. DOUBTFUL: OT Jonathan Ogden. QUESTIONABLE: G Keydrick Vincent, LB Adalius Thomas.

    Did anyone catch the Venus and Serena Williams interview on ESPN during the Jets-Dolphins game? Can someone tell me what the point of that was? They were asked, “No one thought the Jets would be here. When people doubted you, how did you react?” Like Venus and Serena knew what the Jets were going through. CBS should mock ESPN and interview the sisters for this game, asking them questions that have nothing to do with the matchup. For example, “Hey Venus and Serena, the Ravens’ defense is great. When people called you great, how exactly did you feel, and if I may ask, what did you have for breakfast the next morning?”

    Baltimore’s defense has been great this season, especially against one-dimensional offenses. J.P. Losman has made great strides this year, but I don’t expect him to have much success against the Ravens on the road. Willis McGahee won’t have much luck either; Baltimore’s second-ranked run defense will stuff him in the backfield on multiple occasions.

    Something the Bills must improve in the offseason is their ineptness against ground attacks; they are ranked 28th in that category. Jamal Lewis will trample Buffalo’s weak interior, allowing Steve McNair to orchestrate play-action passes to Todd Heap and Derrick Mason.

    The Bills lost last week, so they have nothing to play for. Baltimore, meanwhile, is gunning for the No. 1 seed. I’ll take the team that has some incentive.


    The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
    Baltimore still has something to play for, as it's gunning for a first-round bye.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 53% (31,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
    • Ravens are 37-9 SU; 29-17 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2000 (25-38 SU vs. non-losing).
    • Opening Line: Ravens -9.
    • Opening Total: 35.
    • Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, Ravens Defense.
    • Sit Em: Willis McGahee.

    Prediction: Ravens 20, Bills 6. (Ravens -9½).
    Correct: Ravens 19, Bills 7.




    Dolphins (6-9) at Colts (11-4). Line: Colts by 9. Over-Under: 43.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Colts -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Colts -10.

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: G Seth McKinney (IR), G Bennie Anderson (IR), CB Will Poole (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Marty Booker*, DT Keith Traylor, S Travares Tillman, S Renaldo Hill. Colts: OUT: FB James Mungro (IR), WR Brandon Stokley (IR), TE Dallas Clark, DT Corey Simon (IR), DT Montae Reagor, S Mike Doss (IR). QUESTIONABLE: TE Dallas Clark*, S Bob Sanders.

    Here’s my weekly preview of a potential conversation on Monday Night Football: Theismann: I talked to Tony Dungy, head coach of the Baltimore Colts, and he told me Peyton Manning has a great shot to be a terrific safety in this league, much like Bill Romanowski or Terry Bradshaw. Kornheiser: Manning’s a star! Manning’s a star!!!!! Tirico: Ummm… guys, we’re not even covering this game. Theismann: I talked to Tony Dungy, head coach of the Indianapolis 500, and he told me Marvin Harrison needs to work on his mechanics to become a top quarterback in this league. Tirico: Indianapolis 500, are you on crack? Kornheiser: Harrison’s a star! A star!!!! Tirico: That’s it! I quit! You guys are losers. I’m outta here.

    Too bad Kornheiser and Theismann can’t cover this game; they’d have a lot of fun with Cleo Lemon – and so will the Colts. I know Indianapolis has one of the worst run defenses in NFL history, but I expect them to stack the line of scrimmage, forcing Lemon to beat them downfield. Given that Lemon is making his first career start – on the road, no less – the Colts’ gameplan should be successful, especially if they build a quick lead. They cannot afford to let Ronnie Brown gash them on the ground.

    Miami has a solid defense, but if it has a weakness, it’s in the secondary. If J.P. Losman can go 13-of-19 for 200 yards and three touchdowns, imagine what Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne will be able to do.

    The fact that the Baltimore-Buffalo game is being played at the same time as this contest is significant. With a win and a Ravens loss – which is realistic because the Bills are hot – Indianapolis can secure a first-round bye.


    The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
    The Colts can actually secure a first-round bye if the Ravens lose. That's not really inexplicable, as Buffalo has been hot of late. Because the Ravens and Colts are playing at the same time, Indianapolis will have something to play for the entire game.

    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 61% (30,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
    • Weak Arm: Cleo Lemon is 0-0 ATS on the road.
    • Opening Line: Colts -7.
    • Opening Total: 43.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Ronnie Brown, Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne.
    • Sit Em: Dolphins Defense, Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes.

    Prediction: Colts 34, Dolphins 17. (Colts -9).
    Incorrect: Colts 27, Dolphins 22.




    Falcons (7-8) at Eagles (9-6). Line: Eagles by 8½. Over-Under: 43.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Eagles -5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Eagles -7.

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.
    Injuries: Falcons: OUT: WR Ashley Lelie, WR Brian Finneran (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR), CB Kevin Mathis (IR). DOUBTFUL: CB Jason Webster. QUESTIONABLE: LB Edgerton Hartwell, LB Michael Boley. Eagles: OUT: QB Donovan McNabb (IR), DE Jevon Kearse (IR), LS Mike Bartrum. QUESTIONABLE: CB William Peterson-James, S Michael Lewis.

    It’s time for the Adventures of Michael Vick Overcoming His Coaching! In this week’s episode, Jim Mora Jr. plants Syntox nerve gas in the Georgia Dome and Tyrone Willingham’s house because he wants to become the head coach of the University of Washington. Vick must disarm the nerve gas before it kills everyone – all while beating the Eagles and clinching a playoff spot. With all of this work trying to save the country, it’s no wonder Vick isn’t playing so well.

    Vick was 9-of-20 for 109 yards and two interceptions last week. More importantly, he only carried the ball four times, as his quitting nature became prevalent when he didn’t try his hardest amid his pain. If Vick doesn’t attempt to scramble downfield, he’s doing the Eagles a huge favor – not that they really need it. Philadelphia has done a great job against the run recently, so they should be able to put the clamps on Warrick Dunn, who for some reason touched the ball only 10 times against Carolina. Stuck in long-yardage situations, Vick will attempt to beat Philadelphia with his arm. No chance that happens.

    It feels weird to say this, but Jeff Garcia is a better fit for Philadelphia than Donovan McNabb; he’s 4-1 as a starter; he has only two interceptions; and his leadership and fire have propelled the Eagles atop the NFC East. Andy Reid is also doing a great job of running the football – something that Atlanta can’t defend. In fact, Carolina ran the same exact play on third down seven times. The Falcons have no heart.

    Unless the Cowboys lose to Detroit, Philadelphia needs a victory to lock their division up. I know the Falcons are on the outside looking in, but the way they’re playing right now, it seems like they’re a four-win team.

    Saturday Night Update: The Giants beat the Redskins, so this game is meaningless for Atlanta. I'm upgrading this to a Double Money Pick.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    Unless the Cowboys lose to the Lions, which I highly doubt, the Eagles need a victory to secure the NFC East. This pick will be changed if Dallas LOSES.

    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 67% (32,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
    • Boomerang Game: Teams returning home from a three game road trip are 8-15 ATS since 2000.
    • Post-Monday Night Magic: Andy Reid is 7-3 ATS after a MNF victory.
    • Eagles are 40-21 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
    • Eagles are 20-11 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
    • Opening Line: Eagles -7.
    • Opening Total: 45.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 50 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook, Donte' Stallworth, Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith, Eagles Defense.
    • Sit Em: Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn, Falcons Defense.

    Prediction: Eagles 34, Falcons 14. (Eagles -8½).
    Double Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Eagles 24, Falcons 17.




    49ers (6-9) at Broncos (9-6). Line: Broncos by 10. Over-Under: 38.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Broncos -7½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Broncos -10.

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.
    Injuries: 49ers: OUT: C Jeremy Newberry (IR), DT Anthony Adams, LB Derek Smith. QUESTIONABLE: OT Jonas Jennings. Broncos: OUT: OT Matt Lepsis (IR), DE Courtney Brown (IR). QUESTIONABLE: LB Al Wilson.

    Now that Jay Cutler has established that he will become a star in this league, his dad, founder of the Ashamed Fathers of NFL Bust Quarterbacks, has taken his charity overseas, where it is rumored that Mr. McNown and Mr. Smith (Akili’s dad) are working in sweatshops in France. Mr. Cutler couldn’t find the latter, but he spotted Mr. McNown collapsed in a gutter right next to a mime. Mr. Cutler tried to get Mr. McNown on his feet, but Cade’s dad kept repeating, “Just one more pass! Just give my son one more pass! Oh God! Please! Only one!” It looks like Mr. Cutler has his work cut out for him.

    By the way, I’d like to thank the 49ers for blowing my 100:1 shot on them to win the NFC West. I figured the easiest of the four obstacles I had to overcome was San Francisco over Arizona. So much for that. Given that the 49ers struggled to stop Matt Leinart, they will have similar problems against Cutler, who is playing better and better every week. San Francisco, ranked 20th against the run, permitted Edgerrin James to eclipse the 100-yard barrier. That’s just embarrassing. Imagine what Tatum and Mike Bell will be able to do.

    Denver’s ability to stop ground attacks was paramount in the early part of the season, but the team has fallen to 15th in the rankings. If the Broncos can’t establish a huge lead, the 49ers will get Frank Gore going, which will help out Alex Smith. Denver’s stop unit isn’t what everyone made it out to be in September and October.

    If the Chiefs win, the Broncos need a victory to clinch playoff berth. If the Chiefs lose, Denver is in no matter what. That said, the Broncos had nothing to play for in Week 17 last year, and still managed to squash San Diego, a team that was fighting to get into the postseason.


    The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
    The Broncos are in with a win, OR a Chiefs loss.

    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 56% (28,000)

    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
    • Two Homes (Loss): Mike Shanahan is 2-7 ATS at home following a home loss.
    • Broncos are 9-7 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Broncos are 5-8 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
    • Broncos are 27-38 ATS vs. opponents coming off a loss under Mike Shanahan.
    • Opening Line: Broncos -10.
    • Opening Total: 41½.
    • Weather: Possible snow showers, 36 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Frank Gore, Jay Cutler, Tatum Bell, Rod Smith, Javon Walker.
    • Sit Em: 49ers Defense.

    Prediction: Broncos 24, 49ers 7. (Broncos -10½).
    Incorrect: 49ers 26, Broncos 23.




    Cardinals (5-10) at Chargers (13-2). Line: Chargers by 14. Over-Under: 44.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Chargers -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Chargers -14.

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: QB Matt Leinart*, DE Bert Berry (IR). DOUBTFUL: LB Gerald Hayes, CB David Macklin. Chargers: OUT: WR Malcolm Floyd, OT Roman Oben (PUP), LB Steve Foley, KR Darren Sproles (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Vincent Jackson, DE Luis Castillo, LB Randall Godfrey.

    I may have been dreaming, but I swear I heard the following exchange between Sterling Sharpe and Bob Costas a few weeks ago: “I’m telling you right now, Bob, there’s no way the San Diego Chargers make it to the postseason.” “But Sterling! They’ve already clinched playoff berth, and are pursuing the No. 1 seed in the AFC!” “I’m telling right now, Bob, there’s no way they’re going to make it.” “I can’t argue with this man’s logic!” “I will crack your skull!”

    I’m sure Sterling will be pleased to know that the Chargers can secure the No. 1 seed with a victory or a Ravens loss. Thanks to the NFL moving the Ravens-Bills contest to 4:15, San Diego won’t know if it clinched the top spot prior to the start of this contest. With that in mind, LaDainian Tomlinson will play the entire game. He will bulldoze through a mediocre Arizona ground defense, setting up play-action opportunities for Philip Rivers. San Diego’s first-year quarterback struggled last week, completing just one pass in the first half. But the Cardinals could just be what the doctor ordered; Arizona yields a whopping 232 passing yards per contest.

    Matt Leinart has played well thus far, and he will undoubtedly be a star in this league, but I don’t think he will have much success at San Diego. Rookie quarterbacks seldom have much luck on the road, especially against great defenses. Edgerrin James won’t eclipse the century mark like he did against San Francisco, meaning Leinart will have to carry the Cardinals’ offense. Arizona may score a touchdown or two because of its outstanding receivers, but don’t expect much more than that.

    I have no idea why the public is pounding Arizona. I don’t care about all the points; San Diego is the superior squad, and it needs a victory much more than the Cardinals do. I don’t think the Chargers want to play in frigid Baltimore come January.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
    The Chargers need a victory to secure the No. 1 seed; Arizona is playing for Dennis Green's job.

    The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
  • Percentage of money on Arizona: 58% (24,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 70-56 ATS on the road following a road win.
    • Weak Arm: Matt Leinart is 3-2 ATS on the road.
    • Philip Rivers is 13-2 as a starter (9-6 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Chargers -13½.
    • Opening Total: 47.
    • Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates.
    • Sit Em: Matt Leinart*, Edgerrin James, Cardinals Defense.

    Prediction: Chargers 31, Cardinals 10. (Chargers -14).
    Incorrect: Chargers 27, Cardinals 20.




    Packers (7-8) at Bears (12-3). Line: Bears by 3. Over-Under: 36.
    Sunday, 8:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 16 Games): Bears -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 16 Games): Packers -3.

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    Injuries: Packers: OUT: QB Aaron Rodgers (IR), WR Robert Ferguson, OT Kevin Barry (IR), S Marviel Underwood (IR). QUESTIONABLE: LB Abdul Hodge. Bears: OUT: DT Tommie Harris (IR), DT Tank Johnson (GUNS), DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), S Mike Brown (IR). QUESTIONABLE: CB Charles Tillman.

    Thanks for ruining my New Years Eve, NFL. Can someone tell me why there is a Sunday Night Football Game just hours prior to the commencement of 2007? Thanks to the NFL’s idiotic decision to do this, I have to stay in. I have obligations to both this Web site and the Centre Daily Times; I have to submit a column to the paper by Monday morning. Because my article will be a playoff preview, I won’t be able to write it until the conclusion of this contest. So, drink an alcoholic beverage of your choice for me; I’ll be staying in. By the way, I’ll be celebrating New Years on Thursday and Friday night to make up for this, which leads me to ask, why couldn’t the NFL play this game on Thursday night?

    I’m in a worse mood than usual, so I better not get this game wrong. The last time Brett Favre took on the Bears, he was 15-of-29 for 170 yards and two interceptions. But things will be different Sunday night; Chicago is missing Mike Brown and Tommie Harris, while the Packers might be going up against some of the Bears’ reserves. Chicago has nothing to play for, as it’s locked into the No. 1 seed. I feel compelled to remind you that Lovie Smith sat his regulars in last year’s finale, and consequently lost to Minnesota, 34-10.

    But all of this doesn’t matter if the Giants and Cowboys win. That would mean that the Packers would be eliminated from playoff contention prior to this contest, which as you can imagine, would be really deflating. Assuming New York’s losing streak continues, Green Bay’s 11th-ranked ground defense will put the clamps on Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson, forcing Brian Griese and Kyle Orton into unfavorable situations. Aaron Kampman will wreak havoc upon them if right tackle Fred Miller sits.

    Like I said, this is based off a Giants loss. If they win on Saturday night, this pick will be changed because there is no way Dallas goes down to Detroit.

    Saturday Night Update: The Giants beat the Redskins, so I've removed the Money Pick tag from this game.


    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    The Bears have clinched the No. 1 seed, and will probably rest their starters. Green Bay desperately needs a victory. However, if the Giants and Cowboys both win, the Packers are out. This pick will be changed if the Redskins or Cowboys LOSE.

    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 82% (29,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
    • History: Bears have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
    • Opening Line: Bears -3.
    • Opening Total: 37.
    • Weather: Rain, 43 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, Packers Defense.
    • Sit Em: Bears Starters and Defense.

    Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 10. (Packers +3).
    Correct: Packers 26, Bears 7.


    Second-Half Bets
    Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.


  • Seahawks +3½. Correct
  • Patriots +4½. Correct

    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


    Cowboys: 10-4
    Eagles: 8-7
    Giants: 10-4
    Redskins: 9-5

    Bears: 8-7
    Lions: 10-5
    Packers: 10-4
    Vikings: 6-9

    Buccaneers: 6-8
    Falcons: 7-8
    Panthers: 7-6
    Saints: 7-8

    49ers: 9-6
    Cardinals: 4-11
    Rams: 7-7
    Seahawks: 9-6

    Bills: 10-5
    Dolphins: 10-4
    Jets: 9-6
    Patriots: 9-5

    Bengals: 7-7
    Browns: 8-5
    Ravens: 6-9
    Steelers: 8-7

    Colts: 8-6
    Jaguars: 9-5
    Texans: 12-3
    Titans: 9-5

    Broncos: 4-10
    Chargers: 9-6
    Chiefs: 6-9
    Raiders: 5-9

    Divisional Games: 49-42
    Game Edge: 34-47
    Psychological Edge: 23-19
    Vegas Edge: 16-9
    Trend Edge: 20-24
    Double Edge: 17-13
    Triple Edge: 0-2
    Quadruple Edge: 0-0


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    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


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    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,073-1,901-116, 52.2% (+$11,480)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 667-601-31 (52.6%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 279-240-11 (53.8%)
    Career Over-Under: 1,600-1,582-47 (50.3%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 2-5
    Bears: 3-4
    Bucs: 4-2
    49ers: 3-3
    Eagles: 3-3
    Lions: 2-4
    Falcons: 3-4
    Cardinals: 2-4
    Giants: 2-5
    Packers: 4-2
    Panthers: 2-5
    Rams: 3-3
    Redskins: 4-3
    Vikings: 5-2
    Saints: 2-3
    Seahawks: 3-3
    Bills: 3-4
    Bengals: 2-4
    Colts: 4-3
    Broncos: 4-2
    Dolphins: 5-0
    Browns: 3-1
    Jaguars: 3-4
    Chargers: 2-5
    Jets: 4-3
    Ravens: 2-4
    Texans: 5-2
    Chiefs: 4-1
    Patriots: 4-3
    Steelers: 3-4
    Titans: 4-2
    Raiders: 3-3
    Divisional: 12-14 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 7-6 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 6-12 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-14 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 3-5 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2013 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick 2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2014 Season:
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