49ers (1-4) at Jets (4-0). Line: Jets by 10. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Jets by 12.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Jets by 11.

The Game. Edge: Jets.
Injuries: 49ERS: OUT: C Jeremy Newberry, DE Andre Carter, LB Julian Peterson, LB Derek Smith, CB Mike Rumph. QUESTIONABLE: TE Eric Johnson, DE John Engelberger. JETS: OUT: G Pete Kendall, DT Josh Evans, LB Sam Cowart, CB Ray Mickens. QUESTIONABLE: WR Santana Moss, CB Derrick Strait.

Although this is a potential look-ahead game for the Jets, there are lot of things in their favor. Looking at the trends listed below, there are many reasons to take the Jets, including the fact that San Francisco is a different team on the road than they are at home.

San Francisco will have a tough time moving the chains in this contest. New York surrenders 4.1 yards per carry, but the 49ers have had trouble running the ball no matter who their opponent has been. St. Louis is ranked 29th against the run, yet Kevan Barlow just managed 42 yards on 15 carries against them. The Jets have also done an exceptional job defending the pass this season, limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 205 passing yards per game. Tim Rattay will be feeling the heat from John Abraham and company on numerous third and long situations.

The 49ers permit just 3.7 yards per carry, but that statistic may balloon very quickly. Julian Peterson, the best defensive player on the Niners, and one of the elite linebackers in the league, is out for the year. After Peterson left the game Sunday, the Cardinals were finally able to establish a potent rushing attack. Look for the Jets to do the same with Curtis Martin, the NFL's fourth leading rusher. San Francisco doesn't have much of a pass defense either; Chad Pennington will slice and dice the secondary en route to a 5-0 record.


The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 26-55 ATS since 2001. 49ers kicked a GW FG with in overtime.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 4-13 ATS since 2002.
  • Sandwich Situation: JETS: Last week - Bills. Next week - Patriots.
  • 49ers are 5-11 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 43.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 63 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Curtis Martin, Jets Defense.
  • Sit Em: Kevan Barlow, 49ers Defense.

Prediction: Jets by 31. (Jets -10). Under.




Panthers (1-3) at Eagles (4-0). Line: Eagles by 9. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Eagles by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Eagles by 7.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: PANTHERS: OUT: RB DeShaun Foster, WR Steve Smith, G Bruce Nelson, DT Kris Jenkins, S Damien Richardson. DOUBTFUL: LB Mark Fields, KR/PR Rod Smart. QUESTIONABLE: DT Brentson Buckner. EAGLES: OUT: RB Correll Buckhalter, FB Jon Ritchie, G Shawn Andrews, DE N.D. Kalu.

This is a major revenge situation for the Eagles, who were defeated by the Panthers in the 2003 NFC Championship Game. In that contest, Philadelphia receivers could not catch a cold, the defense could not stop the run and Donovan McNabb could not even get off the bench on his own. It's safe to say that Sunday's matchup between Carolina and Philadelphia will not follow a similar storyline.

Stephen Davis will play for the Panthers, and while the Eagles still have a questionable run defense, which permits five yards per carry, the Carolina passing attack is not a threat this time around. Obviously, Steve Smith is out, but the offensive line witnessed three players defect for other teams, a fourth retire and a fifth injure his hip. Jevon Kearse, Hugh Douglas and company will be breathing down Jake Delhomme's neck on numerous third and long situations.

Talk about an improved offense. Terrell Owens should receive MVP consideration, because his mere presence has transformed Philadelphia's offense into one of the NFL's best. Although Ricky Manning Jr. is a very promising cornerback, he, nor any Carolina defensive back can put the clamps on Terrell Owens. If they decide to double- and triple-team him, Todd Pinkston, Freddie Mitchell and L.J. Smith will be able to get open. On rare occasions when Andy Reid decides to run the football with Brian Westbrook, he will have success against a disappointing stop unit, which allows 4.6 yards per rush.


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Revenge Situation: Eagles were defeated by the Panthers in the 2003 NFC Championship.
  • Panthers are 13-7 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Panthers are 15-7 ATS as underdogs since 2001.
  • Eagles are 12-6 ATS at home since 2002.
  • Eagles are 23-9 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 11-3 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -7 (open) to Eagles -8 to Eagles -8 to Eagles -9 to Eagles -8 to Eagles -9.
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 41 to 42 to 41.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 63 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Terrell Owens, L.J. Smith, Eagles Defense.
  • Sit Em: Panthers Defense.

Prediction: Eagles by 17. (Eagles -9). Over.




Chiefs (1-3) at Jaguars (3-2). Line: Chiefs by 2. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Jaguars by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Jaguars by 1.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
Injuries: CHIEFS: OUT: WR Marc Boerigter, DT Ryan Sims, LB Scott Fujita, LB Mike Maslowski. JAGUARS: OUT: OT Mike Pearson, DE Paul Spicer, DE Lionel Barnes. DOUBTFUL: TE George Wrighster. QUESTIONABLE: RB Greg Jones, RB LaBrandon Toefield, TE Kyle Brady.

Jacksonville's run defense was ranked first in 2003. They were notorious for limiting opposing running backs to under 100 rushing yards. However, the Jaguars allowed a runner to eclipse the 100 yard plateau for the second time in three weeks. The first to do it was Chris Brown, but last week's lucky recipient was... Jesse Chatman? What in the name of Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala is going on here? Jacksonville's once proud rush defense now surrenders 4.1 yards per carry, which is up a whole yard since the second week of the season. Behind a mammoth offensive line, Priest Holmes will bulldoze the Jaguars' defense, setting up the play-action pass for Trent Green. No Jaguar defender can cover Tony Gonzalez, who is poised for a huge outing.

The Chiefs' defense yields 4.8 yards per carry, but in a similar fashion to the gameplan they concocted against the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City will place eight men in the box, forcing Byron Leftwich to beat them with the pass. While Leftwich may accumulate decent statistics (357 yards last week), most of his yardage will be meaningless after Kansas City jumps out to a two or a three touchdown lead. The Jaguars were unable to establish Fred Taylor last Sunday. Consequently, they were instantly down 21-0.


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in October games since 2001.
  • Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Chiefs -1 (open) to Chiefs -2 to Chiefs -2 to Chiefs -2.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 42 to 44.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 80 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Chiefs by 14. (Chiefs -2). Over.




Chargers (3-2) at Falcons (4-1). Line: Falcons by 5. Over-Under: 42.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Falcons by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Falcons by 4.

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
Injuries: CHARGERS: OUT: C Nick Hardwick. QUESTIONABLE: RB Jesse Chatman. FALCONS: OUT: CB DeAngelo Hall, S Keion Carpenter. QUESTIONABLE: LB Jamie Duncan, CB Jason Webster, S Bryan Scott.

LaDainian Tomlinson and Jesse Chatman form a very potent rushing duo, but it is the play of Drew Brees that has propelled the Chargers to a 3-2 record. However, when San Diego has not been able to establish an effective running game, Drew Brees has struggled. In the Bolts' two losses, Tomlinson was restricted to just 3.6 yards per carry, and consequently, Brees' completion percentage was held under 50%. Atlanta has the best run defense in the NFL; they surrender just 3.1 yards per rush. That will place Brees in a plethora of long yardage situations, which will be a major problem, considering that the Falcons have already registered 19 sacks, including seven by Patrick Kerney and four by Rod Coleman.

While Atlanta has the top ranked rush defense in the NFL, San Diego is also stout against the run; they are seeded seventh. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett have been effective behind an offensive line coached by Alex Gibbs. However, the Chargers will limit Dunn and Duckett on the ground, meaning Michael Vick will have to take matters into his own hands. While Vick has struggled with the West Coast Offense against lesser opponents, he has stepped up in marquee matchups by using his legs - a more natural mode of attack for the most electrifying player in the NFL. While the Falcons have averaged less than 13 points per game against the 49ers, Cardinals and Lions, they have also scored more than 30 points per contest against the Rams and Panthers. San Diego is 3-2, meaning Vick may abandon the West Coast for a few significant plays.


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 4-13 ATS since 2002.
  • Falcons are 2-8 ATS at home since 2002.
  • Falcons are 1-9 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Falcons -6 (open) to Falcons -5 to Falcons -5.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 41 to 42 to 42.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Antonio Gates, Michael Vick, Falcons Defense.
  • Sit Em: Drew Brees, Jesse Chatman, Warrick Dunn, T.J. Duckett.

Prediction: Falcons by 13. (Falcons -5). Money Pick. Over.




Dolphins (0-5) at Bills (0-4). Line: Bills by 6. Over-Under: 30.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Bills by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Bills by 3.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: DOLPHINS: OUT: RB Lamar Gordon, WR David Boston, DT Larry Chester. DOUBTFUL: RB Travis Minor, OT John St. Clair, DT Tim Bowens. QUESTIONABLE: QB A.J. Feeley, K Olindo Mare. BILLS: OUT: QB J.P. Losman, C Trey Teague, CB Troy Vincent, S Lawyer Milloy. QUESTIONABLE: RB Travis Henry, OT Jonas Jennings, G Mike Pucillo, S Coy Wire.

If there ever was potential for a scoreless contest this millennium, it would be this game. Neither offense produces much; the Dolphins average less than nine points per game, while the Bills score just 13 per. That being said, it should be puzzling why the spread is 6. Neither team may even score seven points Sunday.

After his status has rotated from out to doubtful to questionable during the week, Fiedler has been cleared to play and will start Sunday. But, does it even matter? No signal caller in the universe could possibly succeed behind Miami's awful offensive line. The Dolphins found some success running the ball with Brock Forsey against the Patriots, but the Bills yield just 3.4 yards per carry.

Like their divisional rivals, Buffalo has problems scoring because of their quarterback situation and their woeful offensive front. Miami's defense is playing well above expectations to counter their offensive misery, meaning the Bills will not score enough to cover the 6 point spread, especially since Travis Henry is questionable with an ankle injury.


The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • History: Dolphins have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Bills are 2-7 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Bills -6 (open) to Bills -6.
  • Total Movement: 31 (open) to 30.
  • Weather: Showers, 51 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Randy McMichael, Eric Moulds, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Both Offenses (except McMichael and Moulds).

Prediction: Bills by 3. (Dolphins +6). Under.




Redskins (1-4) at Bears (1-3). Line: Bears by 1. Over-Under: 33.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Pick.

The Game. Edge: Redskins.
Injuries: REDSKINS: OUT: OT Jon Jansen, DE Phillip Daniels, LB LaVar Arrington, S Matt Bowen, K John Hall. QUESTIONABLE: LB Mike Barrow, KR/PR Chad Morton. BEARS: OUT: QB Rex Grossman, CB Charles Tillman, S Mike Brown. DOUBTFUL: G Ruben Brown, DT Alfonso Boone.

Yet another low scoring game. Washington was unable to move the chains last week against the Ravens. Chicago has a stout defense... or at least they would if all of their players were healthy. They will be missing four starters, and possibly five if Brian Urlacher hasn't recovered from his hamstring injury. The Bears give up 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs, which means Clinton Portis will finally be able to establish the running game that Mark Brunell desperately needs. Brunell should find some success in this contest against a secondary that is missing their top corner, Charles Tillman and their Pro Bowl safety, Mike Brown.

Rex Grossman's replacement, Jonathan Quinn, didn't fare too well against the Eagles two weeks ago. Now, Quinn must face a defense ranked second against the run (3.2 yards per carry allowed) and a secondary that has already intercepted five passes. Thomas Jones will fail to garner the yardage that Quinn needs to avoid being in many ominous third and long situations.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Line Movement: Redskins -1 (open) to Redskins -2 to Redskins -1 to Pick to Bears -1.
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 34 to 34 to 33.
  • Weather: Showers, 60 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Clinton Portis, Rod Gardner, Laveraneus Coles, Redskins Defense.
  • Sit Em: Bears Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Redskins by 9. (Redskins +1). Under.




Bengals (1-3) at Browns (2-3). Line: Browns by 3. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Browns by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Browns by 3.

The Game. Edge: Browns.
Injuries: BENGALS: OUT: LB Nate Webster, CB Dennis Weathersby, S Rogers Beckett. QUESTIONABLE: WR Peter Warrick, DT Carl Powell, S Kim Herring. BROWNS: OUT: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., DE Courtney Brown, LB Ben Taylor, LB Brant Boyer. QUESTIONABLE: OT Ryan Tucker, DT Gerard Warren.

Cincinnati has a very potent offense, which is centered around Rudi Johnson, an outstanding running back, who sets up play-action passes for Carson Palmer. Chad Johnson is one of the elite receivers in the NFL, and can not be covered by anyone. So, why do the Bengals only score 16 points per game? Too many turnovers by a rookie quarterback. Carson Palmer has already thrown seven interceptions, while the Browns' stop unit has registered six picks this season. Cleveland's defense will also contain Rudi Johnson; the Browns yield just 3.5 yards per rush.

During the last Battle of Ohio, Cincinnati needed to win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. All Cleveland did was rush for 264 yards, en route to a 22-14 victory at the Queen City. History may repeat itself. The Bengals' defense looks very Bungle-like; they are ranked dead last in the NFL, surrendering a woeful 5.5 yards per carry. Lee Suggs and William Green will combine for more than 250 rushing yards. If the Bengals decide to place eight men in the box, Jeff Garcia will torch their miserable secondary.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • History: Browns have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Bengals are 4-10 ATS versus AFC North opponents since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Browns -2 (open) to Browns -3 to Browns -2 to Browns -3.
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 40 to 41.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 59 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chad Johnson, Lee Suggs, Andre Davis, Browns Defense.
  • Sit Em: Bengals Defense.

Prediction: Browns by 11. (Browns -3). Under.




Seahawks (3-1) at Patriots (4-0). Line: Patriots by 3. Over-Under: 42.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Patriots by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Patriots by 5.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: SEAHAWKS: OUT: LB Chad Brown, S Damien Robinson. QUESTIONABLE: P Tom Rouen. PATRIOTS: OUT: TE Ben Watson. DOUBTFUL: WR Deion Branch, WR Troy Brown, CB Tyrone Poole. QUESTIONABLE: RB Corey Dillon*, KR/PR Bethel Johnson.

Ahead 27-10 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks were already thinking about their showdown against the Patriots. The fans were shouting "Bring on New England!" They were quickly silenced when Marc Bulger engineered three scoring drives to send the game into overtime. The Rams won the toss and on a 3rd & 8, Bulger threw a touchdown pass to Shaun McDonald. St. Louis ripped the hearts out of the Seahawks.

Seattle will attempt to rebound against the team with the longest winning streak in NFL history. They must also face that fact that West Coast teams playing on the East Coast have a miserable record (check Trends below). Shaun Alexander, one of the premier running backs in the league, may be able to establish himself in this contest. The Patriots yield just 3.8 yards per rush, but they haven't defended a potent running game since the first week of the season, when Edgerrin James tallied 142 yards on 30 carries. If Alexander can rip off five yards per touch, Matt Hasselbeck may be able to connect with his receivers, despite throwing against a lethal pass defense.

The Seahawks have one of the better stop units in the NFL. They were downright impenetrable until the Rams went ballistic in the fourth quarter of last week's contest. Corey Dillon may struggle against the opposition, which allows 4.1 yards per carry, but like Marc Bulger, Tom Brady will be able to shred Seattle's talented, but inexperienced secondary.

If Seattle didn't have to endure the "Early Game Alert" factor, they would have an excellent chance to snap the Patriots' winning streak. Although the Seahawks may have a few advantages in this contest, it is foolish to bet against the Patriots; all they do is win.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 4-13 ATS since 2002.
  • Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in October games since 2001.
  • Patriots are 9-0 ATS at home since 2002.
  • Patriots are 6-3 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Patriots -4 (open) to Patriots -3.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 60 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Shaun Alexander, Darrell Jackson, Tom Brady, David Givens.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Patriots by 7. (Patriots -3). Money Pick. Over.




Packers (1-4) at Lions (3-1). Line: Lions by 2. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Lions by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Lions by 4.

The Game. Edge: Lions.
Injuries: PACKERS: OUT: C Mike Flanagan, DT Grady Jackson. QUESTIONABLE: WR Robert Ferguson, LB Hannibal Navies. LIONS: OUT: WR Charles Rogers, LB Boss Bailey, S Brian Walker. DOUBTFUL: , FB Cory Schlesinger, CB Andre Goodman. QUESTIONABLE: RB Kevin Jones, WR Roy Williams*, DE Robert Porcher.

Every time the Packers venture into Detroit, they perform poorly for two reasons. The first is the Lions' stout run defense, which restricts opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry. In fact, the last time that Green Bay played in the Motor City, they managed just 52 rushing yards on 16 carries. The second reason why Green Bay plays poorly at Detroit is Brett Favre's history in dome games. His record (listed below) speaks for itself. Neither Ahman Green nor Brett Favre will play well Sunday.

Can the Packers' defense stop anyone? Could they defend the Wisconsin Badgers' offense? Probably not. Artose Pinner is poised for a 100 yard outing, because Green Bay surrenders a pedestrian 5.4 yards per rush. Even though Roy Williams' status is uncertain, Joey Harrington will use Pinner's effective rushing ability to play-action pass to Az Hakim and Tai Streets.


The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Packers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Spread History: Lions are 10-3 ATS vs. Packers at home since 1992.
  • Brett Favre is 8-28 ATS (13-23 straight up) in domes.
  • Line Movement: Lions -2 (open) to Lions -2.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather:

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Javon Walker, Joey Harrington, Artose Pinner, Lions Defense.
  • Sit Em: Packers Defense.

Prediction: Lions by 14. (Lions -2). Money Pick. Under.




Texans (2-3) at Titans (2-3). Line: Titans by 6. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Titans by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Titans by 6.

The Game. Edge: Titans.
Injuries: TEXANS: DOUBTFUL: OT Todd Wade. QUESTIONABLE: DE Gary Walker. TITANS: OUT: WR Tyrone Calico, TE Erron Kinney, G Zach Piller, LB Peter Sirmon, S Lance Schulters, K Joe Nedney. DOUBTFUL: LB Rocky Calmus. QUESTIONABLE: RB Chris Brown*, DT Albert Haynesworth, LB Rocky Boiman, CB Samari Rolle.

Based on the way the Texans have played since last fall, this game should be close. Other than a 28-16 loss at Detroit, Houston has not been defeated by more than seven points this season. Despite their mastery of Ahman Green on Monday night, the Titans still have problems stopping the run; they surrender 5.4 yards per carry. If the Texans can prevent Tennessee from scoring a flurry of touchdowns right away, Davis should approach 100 rushing yards. If the Titans do get out to a huge lead, David Carr has proven that he consistently lead his team to improbable comebacks.

Houston's defense isn't as bad as the Packers', but the Texans still allow five rushing yards per carry. Chris Brown will once again eclipse the 100 yard plateau, making things easier for Steve McNair. Like he needs it in this contest. Last week, Daunte Culpepper torched Houston's secondary for 396 yards and five touchdowns.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • History: Titans have won the last 4 meetings.
  • Line Movement: Titans -7 (open) to Titans -6.
  • Total Movement: 46 (open) to 45 to 45.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 68 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: David Carr, Andre Johnson, Chris Brown, Derrick Mason, Drew Bennett.
  • Sit Em: Texans Defense.

Prediction: Titans by 4. (Texans +6). Over.




Steelers (4-1) at Cowboys (2-2). Line: Cowboys by 3. Over-Under: 39.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Cowboys by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Cowboys by 2.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: STEELERS: OUT: QB Tommy Maddox, G Kendall Simmons, LB Kendrell Bell. COWBOYS: OUT: RB Julius Jones, CB Pete Hunter, S Darren Woodson. QUESTIONABLE: WR Antonio Bryant, DE Eric Ogbogu.

What in the world happened to the Cowboys defense? In 2003, they were ranked first in yardage allowed. Now, they are 21st in run defense, yielding 4.6 yards per carry. Although Ben Roethlisberger is the new toast of the town, do not forget what the Steelers are about: running the football. Duce Staley will bulldoze Dallas' battered defensive front, permitting Big Ben to connect with his incredible trio of wide receivers: Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress and Antwaan Randle El. In addition to their inability to stop the ground attack, the Cowboys have struggled to defend the pass. Even Mark Brunell was able to tally 325 passing yards against Dallas. Once again, the Steelers are poised to score tons of points.

Dallas is 2-2, but their two victories have not been convincing. They managed to defeat Cleveland, 19-12 and barely beat the woeful Redskins, 21-18. Meanwhile, their two losses have been ugly: 35-17 at Minnesota and 26-10 in a home contest against the Giants. This may once again be a hideous defeat. Once the Cowboys fail to establish any sort of running game (Pittsburgh restricts the opposition to 3.6 yards per rush), Vinny Testaverde will be throwing non-stop to his talented receivers. The problem is, the Steelers will blitz all afternoon, creating havoc for a pedestrian offensive line and a signal caller that will soon need a cane.


The Trends. Edge: .
  • Steelers are 6-2 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Cowboys are 2-9 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
  • Bill Parcells is 6-3 ATS at home with the Cowboys.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 37 to 38 to 39.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Steelers Offense and Defense, Jason Witten.
  • Sit Em: Cowboys Offense (except Witten) and Defense.

Prediction: Steelers by 17. (Steelers +3). Money Pick. Over.




Broncos (4-1) at Raiders (2-3). Line: Broncos by 1. Over-Under: 42.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Broncos by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Broncos by 3.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: BRONCOS: OUT: RB Mike Anderson, DE Trevor Pryce, CB Willie Middlebrooks. QUESTIONABLE: RB Garrison Hearst. RAIDERS: OUT: QB Rich Gannon, G Mo Collins, S Derrick Gibson. DOUBTFUL: G Ron Stone, LB Travian Smith. QUESTIONABLE: RB Tyrone Wheatley.

Quentin Griffin has been upgraded from questionable to probable. A week ago, this would have been significant, but Reuben Droughns appeared out of thin air and rushed for 193 yards on 30 carries against the Panthers. Oakland yields just 3.7 yards per carry, but that statistic is misleading. The last two weeks, Jonathan Wells and Edgerrin James have both eclipsed the century mark. Droughns will once again receive more than 25 carries and will force the Raiders to bring an eighth man into the box. Plummer will do what he does best; once the running game is established, he will play-action, bootleg and connect with Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie.

In just two starts, Kerry Collins has been responsible for nine turnovers. Nine turnovers! That's half a season's worth. With the turnover machine at the helm, the Raiders are unreliable and should not be selected to cover any sort of spread. Denver will nullify Oakland's pathetic rushing attack. Once the Raiders are trailing by two or three touchdowns, Collins will be forced to throw on every play. Many picks and fumbles will follow.


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Broncos have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.
  • Broncos are 10-3 ATS vs. AFC West opponents since 2001.
  • Raiders are 3-6 ATS at home since 2002.
  • Raiders are 1-8 ATS in October games since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Broncos -2 (open) to Broncos -1.
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 42.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 67 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Plummer, Reuben Droughns, Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie, Broncos Defense.
  • Sit Em: Raiders Defense.

Prediction: Broncos by 17. (Broncos -1). Double Money Pick. Over.




Vikings (3-1) at Saints (2-3). Line: Vikings by 3. Over-Under: 51.
Sunday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Vikings by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Vikings by 4.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: VIKINGS: OUT: RB Michael Bennett, RB Onterrio Smith, TE Jim Kleinsasser, OT Mike Rosenthal, CB Ken Irvin, S Tyrone Carter. DOUBTFUL: LB E.J. Henderson. SAINTS: OUT: DE Willie Whitehead, LB Derrick Rodgers. QUESTIONABLE: LB Courtney Watson.

Under normal circumstances, this game is a blow out. Although Michael Bennett and Onterrio Smith are out, Mewelde Moore, who accumulated 182 total yards Sunday, will make his second NFL start. The Saints surrender 4.7 yards per carry, which means Moore is poised for another incredible game. New Orleans also struggles against opposing aerial attacks - even Chris Simms and Brian Griese played like Pro Bowl quarterbacks last week. Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss and Marcus Robinson will abuse the Saints' pathetic secondary.

Deuce McAllister is healthy, but Minnesota's stop unit has been stingy against the run this season (four yards allowed per rush). What damages McAllister's statistical potential in this contest is the fact that the Vikings will light up the scoreboard in a hurry, meaning McAllister's carries will be limited. Aaron Brooks will be throwing the ball often, which is never good because he is very turnover prone.

As mentioned, this game isn't close under normal circumstances. However, there are many things going against Minnesota in this game. Check the trends below.


The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 26-55 ATS since 2001. Vikings scored a touchdown in overtime.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 13-16 ATS since 2003.
  • Saints are 9-18 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 50 (open) to 50 to 51.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Daunte Culpepper, Mewelde Moore, Randy Moss, Aaron Brooks, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Saints by 3. (Saints +3). Money Pick. Under.




Buccaneers (1-4) at Rams (3-2). Line: Rams by 7. Over-Under: 42.
Monday, 9:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Rams by 8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Rams by 8.

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
Injuries: BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Charlie Garner, WR Joey Galloway, WR Keenan McCardell, WR Yo Murphy, TE Rickey Dudley, G Kerry Jenkins, G Matt O'Dwyer. DOUBTFUL: QB Chris Simms. RAMS: OUT: OT Kyle Turley, C Dave Wohlabaugh, DT Jimmy Kennedy, S Zack Bronson. DOUBTFUL: G Chris Dishman, CB Travis Fisher.

The Rams bandwagon is full of jumpers who were influenced by Sunday's miraculous comeback against the Seahawks. It was just one win against a team that melted down under the Seattle sky. The Rams still can't stop the run and their pass defense is pathetic. Now that Brad Johnson is no longer the starter for Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers may actually score some points. Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott will bulldoze through wide running lanes, loosening up the St. Louis secondary for Brian Griese. Griese performed well Sunday, throwing for 194 yards and a touchdown against New Orleans.

Despite their 1-4 record, Tampa Bay's stop unit defends the aerial attack perfectly. They surrender just 144 passing yards per contest and held Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks and Jake Plummer to a sub-50% completion percentage this year. The Buccaneers' secondary will blanket Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt and the rest of the Rams' receivers, while Simeon Rice will apply consistent pressure on Marc Bulger. Solving Tampa's stout defense is simple; the opposition must utilize a power running game between the tackles. St. Louis does not have a physical offensive line, nor does Mike Martz call enough running plays for Marshall Faulk or Steven Jackson. If Martz desires to win this contest, he should give Faulk and Jackson well over 30 combined carries. We all know that will not happen.


The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 26-55 ATS since 2001. Rams scored a touchdown in overtime.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 13-16 ATS since 2003.
  • Rams are 7-1 ATS in October games since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Rams -7 (open) to Rams -6 to Rams -6 to Rams -6 to Rams -7.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 41 to 42.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Michael Pittman, Michael Clayton, Buccaneers Defense, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce.
  • Sit Em: Marc Bulger, Marshall Faulk, Steve Jackson, Rams Defense.

Prediction: Buccaneers by 7. (Buccaneers +7). Money Pick. Upset Special. Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 2-2
Eagles: 3-1
Giants: 2-3
Redskins: 2-3

Bears: 1-3
Lions: 3-1
Packers: 3-2
Vikings: 1-3

Buccaneers: 1-3
Falcons: 3-2
Panthers: 4-0
Saints: 3-2

49ers: 3-2
Cardinals: 4-1
Rams: 1-4
Seahawks: 1-3

Bills: 4-0
Dolphins: 3-2
Jets: 4-0
Patriots: 1-2

Bengals: 4-0
Browns: 1-4
Ravens: 2-3
Steelers: 1-4

Colts: 2-2
Jaguars: 3-2
Texans: 2-3
Titans: 2-3

Broncos: 3-0
Chargers: 2-2
Chiefs: 2-2
Raiders: 3-2

Divisional Games: 13-14
Trend Edge: 7-12
Game Edge: 8-11
Game & Trend Edge: 1-2


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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

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