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NFL Weekly Predictions
Week 8, 2007



Note: I'm disappointed I got my Monday night selection wrong, but I'd be foolish not to take an 11-3 record. I'm going to spend one day this week studying first- and second-half bets to increase my efficiency in that department. If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Cleveland Browns (3-3) at St. Louis Rams (0-7)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 45.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Browns -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Browns -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Browns.
Injuries: BROWNS: OUT: OT Ryan Tucker, C LeCharles Bentley, LB Willie McGinest. RAMS: OUT: OT Orlando Pace, CB Tye Hill.

A frustrated Scott Linehan stated Monday that he's going to borrow a couple of trick plays from Rutgers in an attempt to beat Cleveland. Odd. Here's something weirder. Linehan, who looked like he was one more injury away from having a nervous breakdown, stated, "It's all about wins, not about stats." Yeah, that's great he feels that way because his team has neither. His two quarterbacks have five touchdowns, 15 interceptions and 25 broken ribs. None of his running backs gain more than four yards per carry. The offensive line has allowed 24 sacks, while the entire scoring unit is averaging 11.3 points per game. Phew... Thank God it's not about stats because the Rams would be 0-7 or something!

It's a shame that the Rams are winless because they have the talent to compete in a mediocre NFC West. It's just that the talent is injured. Four of the top six offensive linemen are out. Bulger is barely walking. Jackson is hurt. Asking any second-string offense to put up more than two touchdowns in a single game is ridiculous. But I feel St. Louis can break out of its slump on Sunday because the Browns can't stop anyone. They have only six sacks, so Bulger should be able to operate freely in the pocket, throwing into a secondary ranked 29th against the pass. Steven Jackson and Brian Leonard will also establish a solid ground attack; Cleveland gives up close to five yards per carry.

The reason the Browns are 3-3 is because of Derek Anderson; the Oregon State alumnus has 14 touchdowns to just eight picks. He doesn't get sacked much, thanks to a pair of potent targets - Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. - and an effective rush game. Jamal Lewis, averaging five yards per carry, should be able to trample the Rams' pathetic defensive front (18th versus the run), allowing Anderson to capitalize with play-action.

That said, I'm not confident in Anderson and the Browns to win as a road favorite. Since when does Cleveland deserve to be laying points as a visitor? With tons of money flowing toward the Browns, I'll take the desperate Rams, who have fared well in the role of a home underdog over the years. This is a great spot for St. Louis, as Cleveland could be looking forward to its battles against Seattle, Pittsburgh and Baltimore the next three weeks.


The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
The Rams are being compared to one of the worst teams of all time. They need to win. Meanwhile, I consider this a Breather Alert for the Browns. Following this "easy" game, they play Seattle, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.


The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Everyone's going to be on the Browns. The Rams suck. I can't imagine a single person willingly backing St. Louis.
  • Percentage of money on Cleveland: 75% (123,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 10-1 ATS since 2000.
  • Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 5-0 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
  • Marc Bulger is 5-1 ATS as a home dog.
  • Opening Line: Browns -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Torry Holt, Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.


    Prediction: Rams 24, Browns 21
    Rams +3 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Over 45 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Browns 27, Rams 20.



    Detroit Lions (4-2) at Chicago Bears (3-4)
    Line: Bears by 5.5. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Bears -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Bears -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Lions.
    Injuries: LIONS: OUT: S Daniel Bullocks. BEARS: OUT: DT Dusy Dvoracek, S Mike Brown.

    Even more grammar lessons from Emmitt Smith! I tried some of these quotes out to regular people on the street, and they all looked at me as if I just escaped a mental institution:

    1. "The bottom half of the schedule get much tougher."

    But wait a second... Watching SportsCenter on Saturday night, I discovered someone more grammatically horrendous than Emmitt. Eric Young. And not only does he butcher the English language, he incoherently yells at the camera. Here are two quotes:

    2. "When he did decide to go over the plate that's when he hits it out!"
    3. "The lefties was lookins inside over the plates!"

    Didn't these teams just play a few weeks ago? Why is this rematch taking place so soon? And do the Bears really deserve to be favored by five just because Brian Griese had one great drive against a soft prevent defense? Chicago struggled to score the entire game against the Eagles, though it should be noted that Detroit's stop unit is much worse than Philadelphia's. In that Week 4 matchup, Griese, making his first start, threw for 286 yards. He had three picks and a few fumbles as well. Can we chalk those up as flukes? I don't think so - the Lions managed to sack Griese six times. Chicago's aging offensive line, which has surrendered 19 sacks this season, just can't keep up with Detroit's quick pass rushers. The Bears will be able to score in the 20s, but I wouldn't expect anything too crazy, especially with Cedric Benson averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.

    Jon Kitna was the more effective signal caller in Detroit's 37-27 victory, as he completed 20-of-24 passes for 247 yards and two scores. Chicago's secondary is so battered and bruised that it is ranked 23rd against the pass. Also, look for Mike Martz to establish some sort of a running game. Sounds crazy, but the Lions actually pounded the rock with Kevin Jones in last week's win over the Buccaneers. Chicago is even worse against opposing ground attacks (28th). How did this defense get so bad?

    That brings me to my next point. Chicago is overrated. The team neither has a stop unit nor a rushing attack. Griese, meanwhile, hasn't completely earned my trust. The Bears are going up against the potent Statfox Trend and a team that seems to match up well against them.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bears.
    The Bears lost to the Lions, and they need the win more.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    The average bettor just saw the Lions slay the Buccaneers, so they could be inclined to bet on them in Chicago.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 71% (105,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings.
  • History: Bears have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • History: Seven of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.
  • Statfox Trend: Bears are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams 17-35 ATS in that situation since 2000; Lovie Smith 1-1).
  • Lions are 3-7 ATS on the road in 2006.
  • Opening Line: Bears -5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 53 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Jon Kitna, Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Brian Griese, Bernard Berrian, Greg Olsen, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Cedric Benson.


    Prediction: Bears 30, Lions 27
    Lions +5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 45 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Lions 16, Bears 7.



    Indianapolis Colts (6-0) at Carolina Panthers (4-2)
    Line: Colts by 6.5. Total: 44.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Colts -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Colts -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: PANTHERS: OUT: QB Jake Delhomme.

    Don't worry. Emmitt Smith and Eric Young aren't the only TV personalities I'll be making fun of this week. Keyshawn Johnson's interview with Chad Johnson was bloody brilliant - crap, this game won't be played in London, the next one will be - but he said two really bizarre things on ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown:

    1. "With the Titans defense, it could be a long day for David Carr and that cast." (so Carr is still on the Texans?)
    2. "Much more ahead on NFL Sunday Countdown." (Keyshawn doesn't know the name of the show he's on? NFL Sunday Countdown? Counting down till Sunday? How can you not know the name of the show when you're one of the stars?)

    Tony Dungy seemed to quell everyone's concerns about this being a trap when all he could do during his post-game press conference was mention the Panthers. He didn't even mention the Patriots' name - he kept calling them "that team." See, this worries me. If Dungy really was focused on Carolina, he wouldn't even have mentioned New England. Or, maybe he would have at least acknowledged them while admitting the Panthers fell under the trap-game category. He looked like he was trying too hard.

    And then there's the chance I could be way off. Either way, I'm not sure if Carolina has the ammunition to contain Indianapolis. The team certainly doesn't have the defense. It takes a 3-4 attack to rattle Peyton Manning the slightest bit. The Panthers run a 4-3 that has a grand total of four sacks and ranks 21st versus the pass.

    Carolina won't have any luck on the other side of the ball either. The Colts suddenly have one of the better run-stopping units in the NFL, so they won't have any problems containing the lackluster duo of DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. That will force the deer-in-the-headlights David Carr into obvious-passing situations. He may hook up with Steve Smith on occasion, but once Indianapolis establishes a gargantuan lead, he will force a few turnovers attempting to keep up with Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

    I hate siding with a publicly backed team, but the Colts seem like the right side. They tend to dominate NFC foes and beat weaker squads on the road. And at least Dungy acknowledged that this could be a trap game.


    The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
    Major Sandwich Situation, as the Colts are coming off a Jaguars win and have the Patriots next week. However, Tony Dungy mentioned this was a trap game on Monday night, so maybe Indianapolis will be focused.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    Colts. Colts. Colts. The public loves them.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 96% (186,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 91-66 ATS on the road following a road loss (Tony Dungy 5-2).
  • Monday Might: Teams coming off a 17+ win on Monday Night Football are 26-14 ATS since 1999 (Tony Dungy 2-2).
  • Colts are 13-7 ATS vs. the NFC under Tony Dungy.
  • Colts are 24-17 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.
  • Peyton Manning is 18-13 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Colts -6.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Colts Defense.
  • Sit Em: DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams, Panthers Defense.


    Prediction: Colts 27, Panthers 10
    Colts -6.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 44.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Colts 31, Panthers 7.



    New York Giants (5-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-7)
    Line: Giants by 9.5. Total: 47.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Giants -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Giants -10.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
    at Wembley Stadium, London

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    Injuries: DOLPHINS: OUT: S Yeremiah Bell.

    In honor of this game being played in London, I'm going to compile this write-up in British. Or, as Emmitt Smith would say, "I'm going to compiles these write-up in British!" Or, as Keyshawn Johnson would say, "I'm going to compile this write-up in French!"

    I pity Uncle Tom Cobley and all in London who 'ave to watch this game. The Giants are solid, but the Dolphins are hardly the dogs bollocks. Last week, Jason Taylor went a bit eppy, "Well, we can't win in America, so maybe we can win overseas." He was probably joking and quite miffed, but it's all just a bit of a flim-flam. The Dolphins, who lost their best player, Ronnie Brown, to a season-ending injury, can't even beat the Raiders at home. To take the biscuit, now they have to travel across the pond to play a team that clearly dominates them on paper? I can't say that I would be too chuffed about all that.

    Going into this season, I was all on me Jack saying the Dolphins' defense is way too old and untalented to compete in this league. I received tons of e-mails from gits saying I lost the plot and calling me mental. I can't say I'm not gobsmacked and even a bit chuffed that they're giving up 33 points per game, managing only nine sacks and ranking 22nd versus the run. How are they going to stop Brandon Jacobs from gaining eight yards every carry? What's going to keep Eli Manning from torching Miami's dodgy secondary? No one on the Dolphins can cover his best mate Plaxico Burress. He, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey and that lot will be open all afternoon - or should I say evening, considering that this game will be played down at the local in London.

    Cleo Lemon was nothing more than a matey-boy a few weeks ago, and I reckon clueless gits still think he's a bit ropey. But he threw for 256 yards, two touchdowns and a pair of picks at Cleveland. Last week, despite playing the Patriots, he was bloody brilliant, compiling 236 yards and completing 65 percent of his passes. Seems like a solid bloke to me. Unfortunately, Miami will be asked to bugger-off of New York's pass-rushing defensive ends out of the backfield. That would be possible with a power running game, but Brown will not be available. If I were the barmy Cam Cameron, I'd step away from watching bean flickers and dolly birds snogging, and focus on giving Jesse Chatman as many carries as possible, simply to duck and dive, and take New York out of its dodgy defense.

    Keep your peckers up, London, this contest won't be a blowout. The Giants dominate this game on paper, but that was obvious, given the cushy spreads and the respective records of each club. There are three wicked edges that favor the Dolphins. First of all, there are a shed-load of nifties and tenners on New York. What's that got to do with the price of eggs? I reckon it could be the dicey, arse-about-face contest of the week. Secondly, teams that are 0-7 or worse 'ave only not covered once this decade. And finally, Miami will be trying its hardest not to embarrass itself in front of the entire world, while the Giants may not be full-on and could be a bit knackered that they even 'ave to play this game on the other side of the pond.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    I don't know how to read this game. No contest has ever been held overseas before.


    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
    The Giants are on fire. The Dolphins stink. This spread seems a bit low to me, so the public will be on the former.
  • Percentage of money on NY Giants: 96% (106,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Hello, Good Bye: Favorites of 6.5 or more are 27-3 ATS a week before their bye since 2002.
  • Hello, Good Bye: Underdogs of 6.5 or more are 20-10 ATS a week before their bye since 2002.
  • Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 10-1 ATS since 2000.
  • Zero Trend: 0-7 (or worse) teams are 5-0 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
  • Giants are 7-12 ATS as favorites of 6 or more the previous 18 instances.
  • Opening Line: Giants -10.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Rain, 52 degrees. HEAVY WINDS.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey, Jesse Chatman.
  • Sit Em: Ted Ginn, Dolphins Defense.


    Prediction: Giants 24, Dolphins 17
    Dolphins +9.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 47.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Giants 13, Dolphins 10.



    Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-2)
    Line: Titans by 7. Total: 39.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Titans -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Titans -10.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: RB Michael Bush. TITANS: OUT: WR David Givens, CB Pacman Jones.

    I just read one of the funniest things ever on Monday night. In my Jaguars-Colts In-Game Thread, forum-poster Jimmyp commented, "Russell Crowe's walk-in to the booth has got me thinking. He said that there's a story in EVERY football player. So the question here, who would make the most money? As a Broncos man, I'm going with Elway, because that film has a happy ending." I brought up Kurt Warner's first year. I also considered Rob Bironas. Matt McGuire joked Ryan Leaf. But JimmyP came back with this suggestion: "I hear the Emmitt Smith Movie, titled 'emit' will be the first English language movie to feature English subtitles."

    What was I doing taking the Raiders last week? They have no business being favored. They've failed to cover in the three games they were laying points. I can't explain why I selected them. I'm an idiot.

    On the other hand, Oakland is 2-1 against the spread as an underdog. The team won at Miami, went into Denver and took the Broncos to overtime and stayed within seven at San Diego the majority of the contest. The Raiders aren't as bad as they seem. Considering they played well in those three contests, I don't see why they can't give the Titans a battle.

    The Titans, who have been renowned for their impressive defense this year, mysteriously surrendered 29 points to Sage Rosenfels in the fourth quarter last week. If Rosenfels can complete long bombs to Andre Davis and Kevin Walker, Daunte Culpepper can definitely move the chains aerially with Ronald Curry, Zach Miller and LaMont Jordan coming out of the backfield. Oakland's attempts to run the ball will be for naught, however; Tennessee is fourth versus the run.

    Things don't seem bad for the Raiders on paper just yet, but I haven't gotten to the biggest mismatch of the game. The Titans run the ball better than almost anyone in the NFL. Guess who is dead last against rushing attacks? That's right - Oakland yields a nauseating 5.6 yards per carry. Vince Young, LenDale White and Chris Brown could all potentially eclipse 100 yards. This will inevitably set up play-action opportunities for Young, who will easy elude the Raiders' front four and their meager nine sacks.

    Despite the previous paragraph, I like the Raiders for a number of reasons. The Titans are exhausted after a 38-36 last-second victory over the Texans. The Statfox Trend also plays a role. Tennessee isn't accustom to being such a huge favorite. The Raiders, as I mentioned, play well as an underdog. And it also doesn't hurt that more than two-thirds of the money is on the Titans.

    Friday Afternoon Update: The recent action on the Raiders is concerning. Tennessee was being bet at 60 percent on Wednesday evening. Now, that's moved to Raiders 76 percent. I don't know what's going on, so I'm bailing out of making this a multi-unit pick.


    The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
    Tennessee is coming off an Emotional Alert, kicking a game-winning field goal as time expired in Houston.


    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    Why are the Titans favored by only seven points? The average bettor is going to pound them.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 69% (99,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Statfox Trend: Titans are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams 17-35 ATS in that situation since 2000; Jeff Fisher 1-0).
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 20-28 ATS since 2002 (Lane Kiffin 1-0).
  • Raiders are 6-15 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Vince Young is 11-6 as a starter (13-4 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Titans -9.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Ronald Curry, Zach Miller, LenDale White.
  • Sit Em: Roydell Williams.


    Prediction: Titans 22, Raiders 17
    Raiders +7 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 39.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Survivor Pick (7-0)
    Titans 13, Raiders 9.



    Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-4)
    Line: Eagles by 1. Total: 37.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Eagles -3.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Eagles -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    Injuries:

    I never understood why no one has ever hired Ron Jaworski as an offensive coordinator. However, I now clearly know why Jaworski has never joined the NFL general-managing ranks. On PTI, when Jaws was asked if he thought Scott Linehan should be fired, he said, "I would never endorse firing a coach." Never? Not even a guy who's about to lose his mind and keeps boasting about his stats? Not even a bald man who puts his star running back on kickoff returns, yet refuses to give him more than 12 carries? Not even a coach whose two sons, one of whom is named Brittany, have gotten arrested so many times they will soon be linked to Al-Qaeda?

    Speaking of Andy Reid's two sons, I picked the Bears last week just because one of them was arrested again. I figured the Eagles would have no gameplan, and I was right. I was actually secretly rooting for the Birds because a victory over Chicago would have set up a great play on Minnesota. I still like the Vikings though. The reason? It all has to do with gameplanning.

    We've seen situations like this work flawlessly over the past few years. Whenever former coaches and coordinators play their old team, they seem to have a strong advantage. This occurred a couple Super Bowls ago, when Jon Gruden beat down the Raiders. The Cardinals defeated Pittsburgh because of Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm. Trent Dilfer and the 49ers battled the Ravens tough, thanks to Mike Nolan's familiarity with Baltimore. And just last week, the Lions and Rod Marinelli took down the Buccaneers.

    Brad Childress is the key in this matchup. He knows the Eagles, having been their offensive coordinator for many years. Reid, meanwhile, seems distracted and lost. Childress knows how to defend Donovan McNabb better than anyone in the league. His Vikings struggle against the pass, but Philadelphia just doesn't have the receivers to beat them. They'll lock down Brian Westbrook - they're third versus the run - forcing McNabb into unfavorable passing downs.

    Philadelphia's defense hasn't allowed many touchdowns, but it can be beaten. Two weeks ago, Thomas Jones had major success on the ground, rushing for 130 yards. After hearing critics bash him for not giving Adrian Peterson enough carries, Childress will ram his star running back down the Eagles' throat. I think Peterson has the potential to duplicate what he did against Chicago.

    This is a death trap for the Eagles. They have Dallas next week and seem to be in disarray. I hope they don't think they can just waltz into Minnesota and beat the "lowly" Vikings, because Childress knows them better than anyone in the NFL. I think Vegas has hinted where it thinks this game will go. I expected Philadelphia to be a 3-point favorite because Tarvaris Jackson completed only six passes last week. By making the spread -1, it seems like the oddsmaker wants the public to take the Eagles. I would advise against doing so.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Eagles need a victory to keep their postseason aspirations alive. They cannot fall to 2-5 and still expect to make the playoffs. Then again, the Vikings wouldn't mind a win themselves.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Despite the Eagles' loss to the Bears, I think the public will favor them over the aerially challenged Vikings.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 59% (78,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Eagles are 42-27 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 21-14 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Donovan McNabb is 25-17 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Donovan McNabb is 15-9 ATS after a loss since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -1.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Vikings Defense.
  • Sit Em: Reggie Brown, Eagles Defense.


    Prediction: Vikings 16, Eagles 6
    Vikings +1 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Under 37.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Eagles 23, Vikings 16.



    Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
    Line: Steelers by 4. Total: 48.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Steelers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Steelers -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Steelers.
    Injuries: BENGALS: OUT: RB Chris Perry, WR Chris Henry, DE Frostee Rucker, LB Odell Thurman, LB David Pollack, LB Rashad Jeanty.

    More nostalgia! The following is a conversation that probably happened during CBS' pre-game show about five years ago, when Jerry Glanville, Randy Cross, Dan Marino and Jim Nantz were anchoring the program:

    Jim Nantz: Hello, friends. Now, it's time to talk about the Steelers and the Bengals! What do you think Dan? Dan Marino: I like the Steelers. The Steelers are a good team. But I like the Bengals too. The Bengals are a good team. Randy Cross: I disagree, Dan. You're saying the Bengals will beat the Steelers!? Well, I'm going to tell you the Bengals will NOT beat the Steelers! Nantz: Hello, friends. Now, it's time to hear Jerry Glanville's take on this game. Jerry Glanville: Haha! Hey! I went fishing last week! I caught a trout and I threw it back! Then I got a phone call from my friend Jim! Jim says to me, "Hey, George, guess what I bought on eBay yesterday?"I say, "What?" And he says... Cross: So, Jerry, you think you caught a trout!? Well, I'm going to tell you that you did NOT catch a trout!" Glanville: Haha! Hey! I was riding my motorcycle the other day and I passed by this burger joint! I ordered three chicken nuggets and a pint of soda! It was good until I saw this cockroach on the floor, and I followed it into the bathroom. Then it started speaking to me. It said, "Hey, George! You'll never believe what I sold on eBay last night!" I say, "What?" And he says...

    A long lead because I don't know where I'm going with this game. On one hand, the Steelers are coming off a road loss to play the defensively challenged Bengals in a rivalry where the visiting team usually wins. On the other hand, laying 3.5 is never a solid proposition in football, and the amount of money on Pittsburgh is just too much to ignore.

    Both offenses seem to dominate this game on paper. The Bengals are one of the worst teams against the run in the NFL. Willie Parker, one of the league leaders in rushing yards, could approach the 150 mark, setting up play-action opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger. Throwing the ball shouldn't be much of a problem anyway, seeing as how Cincinnati actually allowed Chad Pennington to look like a legitimate NFL quarterback. The Bengals have only 11 sacks through six games, so I don't see how they're going to put any pressure on Roethlisberger. However, it should be noted that Pittsburgh had this type of game edge against Denver last week, and it didn't work out that way. That's why I repeatedly state that matchups are almost meaningless because they're already factored into the spread.

    Cincinnati obviously has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The scoring unit had been a little bit sluggish prior to last week because Rudi Johnson had been averaging just three yards per carry. I was shocked when Kenny Watson rumbled for 131 yards and three touchdowns on 30 carries against the Jets. Turns out Rudi, and not the offensive front, was at fault after all. I like the Bengals' chances with Watson in the backfield. The Steelers will actually have to worry about the run, permitting Carson Palmer to pick apart their secondary. Pittsburgh must get to Palmer, which is easier said than done, considering the Bengals have yielded just 10 sacks all year.

    Cincinnati seems like a much better team with Watson running the ball. Maybe they can turn it around. Beating the Steelers will be difficult. Covering the 3.5 with tons of cash flowing Pittsburgh's way? A bit easier.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    This is a fierce divisional rivalry. Both teams will be focused.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    I don't think too many people respect the Bengals. They just barely beat the Jets. I have a feeling the public will expect the Steelers to rebound.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 79% (99,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 91-66 ATS on the road following a road loss.
  • History: Road Team has won the last 5 meetings.
  • Steelers are 21-8 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 38-13 as a starter (32-19 ATS).
  • Carson Palmer is 2-6 ATS as a home dog.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -1.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 58 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson.
  • Sit Em: Kenny Watson, Both Defenses.


    Prediction: Steelers 24, Bengals 23
    Bengals +4 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 48 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Steelers 24, Bengals 13.






    Buffalo Bills (2-4) at New York Jets (1-6)
    Line: Jets by 3. Total: 38.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Jets -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Jets -3.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Jets.
    Injuries: BILLS: OUT: WR Peerless Price, TE Kevin Everett, DE Ryan Denney, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Jason Webster.

    So, it turns out that the Bills are looking to expand their fanbase by playing a regular season game in Toronto. Yeah, not only do you lose big games in the worst ways possible, you now piss off your regular fans by taking a home game away from them. In other news, the New York Jets, looking to increase their popularity, will be playing four contests in Siberia. There is no stadium in Siberia, so the games will be hosted in an 80-year-old chemical plant. Let's hope the Jets players don't get radiation poisoning.

    And in other news, Chad Pennington still throws like an 8-year-old girl, though he managed to compile 272 yards at Cincinnati last week. Sure, he battled the Bengals, but it's not like the Bills have the greatest defense in the world. Buffalo has only five sacks this year, which definitely plays a huge factor in its 31st ranking against the pass. Thomas Jones, two Sundays removed from a 130-yard performance against the Eagles, will once again eclipse the century plateau, given that the Bills yield close to five yards per carry.

    As I wrote in my Power Rankings, I'm not sure what to make of Trent Edwards just yet. He makes solid throws, but he seems good for one horrendous pick-six in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, each of Edwards' three starts have been at home. We have yet to see him perform on the road. I'm not confident in his ability to walk into Giants Stadium and beat a desperate divisional rival just yet. A more experienced signal caller would be able to get it done against a horrendous Jets defense, but Edwards obviously isn't seasoned enough right now.

    I had the Bills over the Jets as a huge play earlier in the year. Now, I'm coming back with New York. The host has dominated this rivalry over the past few years, winning eight out of the past 10 meetings. And it also makes my life easier that the public is backing Buffalo.

    Sunday Morning Note: After thinking this over, I really like the Jets. I bumping this up to five units from four.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    The Bills just beat the Ravens and looked impressive against Dallas. The Jets are miserable. Buffalo could be a publicly backed dog.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 57% (78,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Bills are 11-5 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
  • Chad Pennington is 15-8 ATS off a loss.
  • Chad Pennington is 15-6 ATS as a home favorite.
  • Opening Line: Jets -3.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Sunny/clear, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Thomas Jones, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery.
  • Sit Em: Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Bills Defense.


    Prediction: Jets 20, Bills 6
    Jets -3 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Under 38 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Bills 13, Jets 3.



    Houston Texans (3-4) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-3)
    Line: Chargers by 9. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Chargers -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Chargers -7.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    Injuries: TEXANS: OUT: WR Andre Johnson*.

    It may seem callous to bet against a team going through tragedy and turmoil like the Chargers are right now. I don't know if it's unethical or not. That's up to you to decide. Me? I had no problem wagering against the Saints a few preseasons ago when they were dealing with Katrina. I also didn't have an issue fading the Chargers the last time wildfires swept through San Diego.

    In case you've been living under a rock, two-thirds of the Chargers' roster have been evacuated from their homes. That includes Norv Turner. How is the team supposed to focus on the Texans when they have loved ones and valued possessions in danger? How can Turner possibly gameplan for this opponent when he's going through the same thing?

    That brings up the question, should this contest even be taking place? Look, I know there are more important things than football, but they do have the option of playing this game in Arizona or Los Angeles. There is no way to reschedule this contest, given that San Diego has already had its bye. And, tons of money is at stake, so the corporations who have a monetary interest in this game won't be too pleased. This matchup will happen. It's just a matter of where.

    There's no doubt the Chargers are the better team. LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips are usually unstoppable, assuming they're being coached correctly. But what do three of those guys have in common? Tomlinson, Merriman and Phillips were evacuated from their homes.

    As I always say, game matchups mean nothing. Betting football is all about finding spots. Given what the Chargers are going through right now, this is a terrible spot for them.

    Note: This game will be played at San Diego. My reason for taking the Texans had more to do with the evacuations than the site location.


    The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
    Two-thirds of the players, as well as Norv Turner, have been evacuated from their homes. There is no way this team is focused on the task at hand right now.


    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    I'm not sure how the public may react to the San Diego wildfires. I have a feeling some people will ignore the situation.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 82% (84,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Bye Bye: Norv Turner was 0-2 ATS off a bye with the Raiders.
  • Texans are 21-10 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -10.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Location TBA.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Ahman Green, Andre Davis, Texans Defense, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates.
  • Sit Em: Philip Rivers, Chris Chambers, Chargers Defense.


    Prediction: Texans 17, Chargers 16
    Texans +9.5 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Under 45 (.5 Units) -- Push; -$5
    Chargers 35, Texans 10.



    Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3)
    Line: Buccaneers by 3.5. Total: 32.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Buccaneers -7.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Injuries: JAGUARS: OUT: QB David Garrard*, K Josh Scobee. BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Cadillac Williams, RB Michael Pittman, OT Luke Petitgout, DE Patrick Chukwurah, CB Torrie Cox.

    We've almost hit the 4:15 games, so it's time for my crappy baseball predictions! I can't believe losers like J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo mustered enough offense to beat Carsten Charles Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. It looks like the Red Sox are on a roll similar to the one they had in 2004. Colorado has spent the past five weeks or so sitting around at home, building snow angels and eating Cheetos. Boston's going to win, right? I thought so too until I heard that the Rockies' winning streak commenced when the wife of one of the team's scouts passed away. Since her death, the Rocks have only lost once. I'm a big believer in spiritual mumbo-jumbo. Josh Beckett wins both of his starts, but Colorado triumphs four times to win the World Series.

    Like everyone else, there are a few things I don't understand about life. Most of those, however, deal with this game. As in, why are the Buccaneers only 3.5-point favorites against a Jacksonville team without its starting quarterback? And given that the spread is so low, why aren't more people betting this game? I'm really confused. Is it because Tampa Bay lost to the Lions? But then, didn't people see how much Quinn Gray sucks? If David Garrard were starting, this would be a bad matchup for the Bucs, whose small cover-2 scheme is susceptible to power running attacks. But with Gray under center, Tampa Bay can afford to stack the line of scrimmage, forcing him to throw into its fifth-ranked pass defense.

    Jeff Garcia has been extremely effective this year, especially at home. He's completing 70.4 percent of his passes, and he has yet to throw an interception. We saw Peyton Manning burn the Jaguars' secondary on Monday night. Granted, Garcia, Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard are not Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, but I believe Jacksonville could be a little deflated after losing its most important game of the year. Following a 21-14 defeat to the Colts in their first meeting last season, the Jaguars lost 36-30 at Washington, despite being a 3.5-point favorite.

    The Buccaneers are underrated right now. Their loss to Detroit can be attributed to Rod Marinelli's familiarity with his former team. I don't trust Gray on the road. I can, however, trust that this contest won't be Tim Donaghyed, given that there isn't an outrageous amount of money on either side.


    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The Jaguars could be really flat after losing their Super Bowl. They may also be down because David Garrard is out. The Buccaneers, coming off a loss, won't feel sorry for Jacksonville.


    The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
    People may be turned off by the fact that the Buccaneers lost to the Lions, but I can't really see anyone backing Quinn Gray.
  • Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 69% (81,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Monday Misery: Teams coming off a 17+ loss on Monday Night Football are 10-23 ATS since 1999.
  • Crappy Quarterback: Quinn Gray is 0-0 ATS on the road.
  • Jaguars are 5-2 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 33.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 73 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Maurice Jones-Drew, Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard, Buccaneers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Quinn Gray, Michael Bennett, Earnest Graham.


    Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Jaguars 7
    Buccaneers -3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 32 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Jaguars 24, Buccaneers 23.



    New Orleans Saints (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
    Line: Saints by 2. Total: 40.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Saints -3.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Saints.
    Injuries: SAINTS: OUT: RB Deuce McAllister. 49ERS: OUT: DE/OLB Manny Lawson.

    It's time for my The New NFL Primetime Sucks Rant of the Week. Actually, this week's NFL Primetime wasn't so bad. They covered all of the games and Merril Hoge refrained from making any idiotic comments, which was a first for him. I do have a gripe with the Blitz only covering six games, but the heads at ESPN simply hate their viewers, what can I say? That became extremely evident when Neil Everett kept singing during the Monday night SportsCenter. It was horrible, I actually hope none of you were subjected to it. I seriously wanted to grab a knife and slice my ears off. Just looking at Everett makes me think of an annoying kid who picks his nose, wipes his boogers all over the place and laughs hysterically about it. Ugh.

    Something even more annoying than Everett - believe me, such things exist in this cruel world - was watching the 49ers' gameplan against the Giants last week. It was the worst thing I've ever seen. Going into the contest, I thought they would use Frank Gore's ability to pound the rock in between the tackles to offset New York's four-defensive end scheme. Instead, Mike Nolan insisted on dropping Trent Dilfer seven steps back, at which point Dilfer was already under pressure. The result was three fumbles and two interceptions.

    Good news for the Niners, who clearly don't deserve any. Frank Gore will play. Alex Smith, in all likelihood, is also in. The 49ers will need them because they can't possibly win with Dilfer and Michael Robinson starting. New Orleans' defense, as we all know, can be exposed. The Saints are ranked 27th against the pass. Even Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington were able to move the chains against them. Given that New Orleans has to worry about Gore, Smith will have an economical afternoon, engineering enough scoring drives to cover.

    But the Saints' offense will have a say in that. After a very sluggish start, Drew Brees has rebounded nicely, going 47-of-70, 465 yards, four touchdowns and a pick the past two weeks. San Francisco's talented and expensive secondary will have to step up. That could be a problem, given the play-makers New Orleans has at wide out and in the backfield - Reggie Bush isn't the greatest stat-producer in the world, but he can break one at any given moment.

    The Saints are a bit better than the 49ers, assuming the latter has all of their starters available. But that's factored into the spread. Considering everything, I like San Francisco for two reasons. First, there is way too much cash flowing the other way. And second, I don't believe New Orleans is worthy of being a road favorite over anyone. The team had one great half against the Seahawks, and just squeaked by the horrendous Falcons. Laying points with the Saints on the road is just as unappealing as wiping Neil Everett's boogers off my keyboard.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    A possible Look-Ahead Alert despite the 2-4 record. The Saints, following two victories, have the Jaguars next week.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    The Saints are back! Money will be flowing their way. I don't think anyone wants to bet the 49ers after their performance against the Giants.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 81% (87,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Saints are 36-24 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 15-6 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Drew Brees is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
  • Opening Line: Saints -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Frank Gore, Darrell Jackson, Arnaz Battle, Vernon Davis.
  • Sit Em: Reggie Bush, Both Defenses.


    Prediction: 49ers 20, Saints 17
    49ers +2 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 40 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Saints 31, 49ers 10.



    Washington Redskins (4-2) at New England Patriots (7-0)
    Line: Patriots by 16.5. Total: 47.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Patriots -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Patriots -17.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.
    Injuries: REDSKINS: OUT: OT Jon Jansen. PATRIOTS: OUT: WR Troy Brown, DE Richard Seymour.

    Following Washington's slim 21-19 victory over Arizona, some of the players, including Fred Smoot, were boasting about how they were going to give the Patriots a tough battle. Patrick Crayton and Terrell Owens, meanwhile, were trash-talking New England after a loss. I don't get it. Why is everyone so confident about their chances against the Patriots? Actually let me rephrase that. Why is everyone foolishly ignorant toward their future loss to the Patriots? No one outside of Indianapolis has a shot to knock off New England. If I were gameplanning against the Patriots, I'd repeatedly proclaim that Bill Belichick is the best coach of all time. I'd set some of my female family members up with Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Tedy Bruschi. I'd show up waiving a white flag. And if that didn't work, I'd just send my practice-squad guys and assistant coaches to the game, so my starters wouldn't get embarrassed.

    I guess Joe Gibbs reads this Web site, because in a Monday afternoon press conference, he basically admitted that his team has no chance and referred to his squad as the biggest underdog of all time. Uh oh. Does that mean Belichick won't be running up the score today? Not that he ever has. It really drives me nuts when people say that he did so against Miami. New England scored one touchdown in the second half. If Belichick wanted to, he could have won that game 84-7. That's how huge the disparity is between the Patriots and the rest of the league.

    Washington struggled with Arizona. With that in mind, they have no shot. None whatsoever. Anyone who thinks the Redskins can win this game should be locked up in a mental institution. I just don't see how the Redskins are going to score when the contest is in reach. Jason Campbell just isn't ready to engage in a shootout with Brady. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts won't work on the ground either. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Redskins have a decent defense, but no one can stop Brady, Moss, Wes Welker and Ben Watson right now. It's just not going to happen. Delving into the matchups would just be a waste of time.

    Gibbs' comments will keep me from laying more than a unit on the Patriots. But that's definitely the right side. You'd have to be a lunatic to wager against them right now. I've bet New England every week this year, and I don't see myself going the other way anytime soon.


    The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
    If the Patriots were any other team, I'd say Look-Ahead Alert. They have the Colts next week. But they may be too disciplined and seasoned to look past Washington, a decent 4-2 squad.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    I never thought I'd see a 4-2 team as a 16-point underdog. This line is high, but some people may not be able to resist betting the Patriots.
  • Percentage of money on New ENgland: 61% (141,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Patriots are 36-22 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Patriots are 19-8 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 89-25 as a starter (73-39 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -16.
  • Opening Total: 49.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Patriots Defense.
  • Sit Em: Jason Campbell, Clinton Portis, Redskins Defense.


    Prediction: Patriots 45, Redskins 17
    Patriots -16.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 47.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Patriots 52, Redskins 7.



    Green Bay Packers (5-1) at Denver Broncos (3-3)
    Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Packers -2.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Pick.
    Monday, 8:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    Injuries: BRONCOS: OUT: WR Javon Walker, WR Rod Smith, C Tom Nalen.

    Here are the Week 8 Look-Alike Photos Featuring the Joker among others.

    This is the first Monday night game in the past few weeks that isn't a potential blowout. I guess that means I have to go into the matchups. Groan.

    When the Packers Have the Ball... Green Bay is renowned for its lacking running game, but even it was able to muster something on the ground against Chicago. That could be the case again, as the Broncos surrender 5.3 yards per carry. If DeShawn Wynn, Vernand Morency and Brandon Jackson can move the chains, Brett Favre will obviously capitalize on play-action opportunities. Denver's secondary, thought of as stellar at the beginning of the season, is banged up and rapidly aging. Donald Driver, Donald Lee, Greg Jennings and James Jones could prove to be too much for the Broncos' defensive backs to handle, especially considering that they won't be receiving any help from a front four that has only one player (Elvis Dumervil) who has more than two sacks.

    When the Broncos Have the Ball... What do you think Mike Shanahan will attempt to do? The Packers are pretty decent versus the run (11th), so zone-blocking Green Bay to death with Travis Henry may not be as effective as it is with other opponents. If the Broncos have to throw the ball more than they'd like to, I don't give them much of a chance. Call me crazy, but I don't really trust Jay Cutler just yet, especially without the services of Javon Walker. The Packers' excellent corners will make things difficult for a signal caller who has more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (7).

    If the Broncos Can Beat the Steelers... Now, we move away from the game matchup, which means almost nothing, and discuss what happened last Sunday night. Denver looked really impressive against Pittsburgh, beating the so-called No. 3 team in the NFL, 31-28 as a 4-point underdog. But as the old mantra goes, "Any given Sunday..." I'm not putting much stock into the Broncos' upset victory. They were playing for pride after suffering their worst home loss under Shanahan. Another defeat would have been devastating. So, they gave 110 percent and still nearly lost to the Steelers. I don't think they'll have the same intensity in this contest as they did against Pittsburgh, as it is extremely difficult to bring the kitchen sink two weeks in a row in the NFL.

    The Trends Say... The Broncos are the AFC version of the Carolina Panthers. They perform poorly as a favorite, and win as an underdog. I don't get it, but that's just the way things work in the mile-high city. Also, for some reason, Shanahan is horrendous at home following a victory as a host. He just doesn't have the capability to keep his squad focused in an attempt to win a pair of consecutive home games. And finally, Shanahan happens to be 1-9 against the spread prior to back-to-back road contests. Hey, I'm just giving you the facts.

    Jason Elam Kicks the Ball and it's... Can the Broncos even win by more than three? Seriously. All of their victories this season were decided by last-second Elam field goals. Who's to say they can beat Green Bay and Mr. Monday Night by more than three?

    And the Victory Goes to... In case you couldn't tell, I like the Packers. I'm not falling into the Denver trap. The team has one good game, and suddenly they're 3-point favorites over a 5-1 squad? Give me a break.


    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    The Broncos saved their season with a victory over Pittsburgh. I don't know if they can muster the same energy two weeks in a row.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Not really sure where the public is going to put their money. They just saw the Broncos win, so the host could see some action.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 55% (180,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Two Homes (Win): Mike Shanahan is 2-9 ATS at home following a home win.
  • Brett Favre is 17-12 on Monday Night.
  • Broncos are 14-9 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 23 instances.
  • Broncos are 3-14 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
  • Broncos are 5-9 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
  • Broncos are 1-9 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 10 instances.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -1.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Clear, 45 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Donald Lee, Brandon Marshall.
  • Sit Em: Broncos Defense.


    Prediction: Packers 20, Broncos 17
    Packers +3 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 43.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 19, Broncos 13.


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Anti-Public Parlay: Rams +3, Dolphins +10, Bengals +4, Jets -3, 49ers +3 (.5 Units to win 14.3) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Teaser: Colts PK & Titans PK (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • Live Dog: - Packers +150 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$150
  • Live Dog: - Rams +140 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch +500 - Lynch will be the opening-day starter for the Bills and will have the luxury of running behind a huge offensive line. Running backs make the quickest transition into the NFL, and Lynch is the only rookie who's guaranteed a starting gig. (1 Unit)
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Field +700 - James Jones? Jacoby Jones? Who knows, Marques Colston came out of nowhere last year. (1 Unit)
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jamaal Anderson +1400 - Unlike Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson will be starting on Day 1. With teams concerned about John Abraham, Anderson seems like he could be poised for a double digit-sack campaign. (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Patriots 5/2 - Not great odds, but they'll get the job done. (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Steelers 22/1 - Getting a great deal here. (.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Chiefs Under 7.5 -155 - Larry Johnson will get hurt, the defense will suck and Herm Edwards will lose his mind. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Dolphins Under 7 -125 - I've talked about the Dolphins plenty of times already. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Steelers Over 9 -105 - The Steelers went 8-8 with a damaged Ben Roethlisberger. No way they win less than 10 this season. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Giants Under 8 -165 - No way they get to 8-8 this year. (1.5 Units)
  • Player Prop: Larry Johnson Under 1,700 Total Rushing Yards - Since Eric Dickerson, no running back who has carried the ball 385 or more times has finished in the top 10 in rushing. Johnson had 416 carries, the most in the history of the NFL. (2 Units)
  • Player Prop: Wes Welker Over 675 Total Receiving Yards - Wes Welker has been Tom Brady's new go-to-guy in training camp and preseason. I'm expecting a big year from him. (2 Units)
  • More prop picks will be listed here.



    Second-Half Bets
    Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.

  • Texans PK +110 -- Correct; +$110
  • Saints PK +105 -- Incorrect; -$100



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    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
    Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2013 Season:
    Week 1 NFL Picks
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    Week 5 NFL Picks
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    Week 19 NFL Picks
    Week 20 NFL Picks
    Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick



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