Packers (8-6) at Vikings (8-6). Line: Vikings by 3. Over-Under: 56.
Merry Christmas. Friday, 3:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Vikings by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Vikings by 4.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: PACKERS: OUT: C Mike Flanagan. QUESTIONABLE: WR Robert Ferguson, OT Kevin Barry, LB Na'il Diggs. VIKINGS: OUT: TE Jim Kleinsasser, OT Mike Rosenthall, LB Roanall Smith, S Tyrone Carter. DOUBTFUL: CB Ralph Brown. QUESTIONABLE: OT Bryant McKinnie, C Matt Birk, CB Antonie Winfield.

The average score of all Vikings-Packers games since 1992 is 23-23, so expect a very contested battle on Christmas Eve.

After playing three opponents who stop the run well (Philadelphia, Detroit and Jacksonville), Mike Sherman should attempt to establish Ahman Green on Friday, because the Vikings surrender 4.5 yards per carry. Minnesota middle linebacker E.J. Henderson has been criticized for his inability to grasp defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell's schemes, and he has consequently struggled, especially against the run. Green will gash through a weak Vikings defensive front, setting up play-action and screen opportunities for Brett Favre, who has played poorly in the Metrodome prior to last year's contest. Favre was 18 of 28 for 190 yards and only one interception despite playing with a broken thumb in 2003.

Green Bay's defense is terrible and it will eliminate them from the playoffs. Not only are they 31st in the league against the run, they also permit quarterbacks to accumulate 255 passing yards per game on the road. The Packers do not have the defensive backs to cover Randy Moss, Nate Burleson, Marcus Robinson and Jermaine Wiggins. Minnesota does not run the football well but that hasn't prevented them from averaging 24.7 points per contest since Nov. 8.

Mike Tice and his players are thrilled and seem to think they are a team of destiny because the Lions imploded last week. The fact is, the Vikings needed a bad snap to beat Detroit. I simply cannot take Minnesota in a big game.


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings.
  • Brett Favre is 10-28 ATS (15-23 straight up) in domes.
  • Line Movement: Vikings -3 (open) to Vikings -3.
  • Total Movement: 55 (open) to 56.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Javon Walker, Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Nate Burleson, Jermaine Wiggins.
  • Sit Em: Onterrio Smith, Mewelde Moore, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Packers by 3. (Packers +3). Over.




Raiders (5-9) at Chiefs (6-8). Line: Chiefs by 8. Over-Under: 59.
Merry Christmas. Saturday, 5:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Chiefs by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Chiefs by 7.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: QB Rich Gannon, WR Ronald Curry, G Frank Middleton, G Mo Collins, G Ron Stone, S Derrick Gibson. DOUBTFUL: CB Charles Woodson. QUESTIONABLE: CB Phillip Buchanon, S Marques Anderson. CHIEFS: OUT: RB Priest Holmes, WR Marc Boerigter, OT John Welbourn, LB Shawn Barber, LB Mike Maslowski. DOUBTFUL: RB Derrick Blaylock, OT Chris Bober, DE Vonnie Holliday, S Jerome Woods. QUESTIONABLE: WR Johnnie Morton, LB Monty Beisel.

The Raiders and the Chiefs combined for 85 points Sunday and participated a 34-27 shootout on Dec. 5, which means there will be offensive fireworks in this game on Christmas Day.

Oakland has no running game. Zack Crockett tallied 27 yards on eight carries against the Titans, leading the team in rushing. However, Kerry Collins has been brilliant, despite a very slow, turnover-ridden start. Collins threw for 371 yards and five touchdowns Sunday, and in his previous match-up against the Chiefs, he registered 343 yards and three touchdowns. Santa Claus may grant him similar success on Christmas because Kansas City allows a whopping 270 passing yards per contest.

Priest Holmes is out for the season, but Larry Johnson has established himself as a very lethal running back. In his last three appearances, Johnson has totaled 373 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Raiders yield only four yards per carry, but Johnson accumulated 118 yards and a touchdown against them earlier this season. Oakland will need an eighth man to stop Johnson, meaning Trent Green will utilize play-action, connecting downfield to Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzalez.

This is a close, high-scoring game on paper, but two Raiders were arrested for investigation of public intoxication Sunday, while five other Raiders-including Warren Sapp and Napoleon Harris-hosted a late-night party before their last road game. Will Oakland be focused for this cold-weather game? Probably not.


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • History: Chiefs have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Chiefs -7 (open) to Chiefs -8 to Chiefs -7 to Chiefs -8.
  • Total Movement: 58 (open) to 59.
  • Weather: Sunny/Clear, 38 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Kerry Collins, Jerry Porter, Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Eddie Kennison, Tony Gonzalez.
  • Sit Em: Raiders Running Backs, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Chiefs by 10. (Chiefs -8). Over.




Broncos (8-6) at Titans (4-10). Line: Broncos by 4. Over-Under: 50.
Merry Christmas. Saturday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Broncos by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Broncos by 3.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: BRONCOS: OUT: RB Mike Anderson, RB Quentin Griffin, DT Luther Elliss, CB Lenny Walls, CB Willie Middlebrooks. DOUBTFUL: DE Trevor Pryce. TITANS: OUT: QB Steve McNair, RB Chris Brown*, G Zach Piller, LB Peter Sirmon, LB Rocky Calmus, S Lance Schulters, S Tank Williams, K Joe Nedney.

The Broncos have played very poorly in their last four games. It started with a Sunday night loss at snowy Mile High against the Raiders. The following week, Denver lost to the Chargers, 20-17. They only won by three against the two-win Dolphins at home, and things completely fell apart last week in a 45-17 humiliating loss to the Chiefs.

Mike Shanahan pulled a Mike Martz against the Chiefs, calling 18 running plays, compared to 41 passes. Shanahan needs to establish the run early against the Titans, because they have the league's worst run defense. If Reuben Droughns and Tatum Bell receive enough carries, they will gash a unit that surrenders 5.1 yards per carry. Jake Plummer will capitalize on many successful runs by utilizing his famous play-action bootlegs, connecting with Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie downfield. During the Broncos' four-game losing streak (the 20-17 win against the Dolphins should count as a loss), Plummer has thrown nine interceptions, compared to just two touchdowns.

Chris Brown is done for the year, so the Titans will not be able to take advantage of a defense that allowed Larry Johnson to look like Marcus Allen. However, Billy Volek is playing like a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback right now, throwing for 918 yards and eight touchdowns in his last two starts. Volek will continue his torrid performance because the Broncos saw Trent Green tally 224 yards and three touchdowns on only 19 pass attempts.

The Broncos are in implode mode like the Seahawks, Rams and Vikings. A loss to Tennessee would make it very difficult for them to qualify for the post-season.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Double Road Alert: Mike Shanahan is 0-3 ATS on the road following a road loss since 2001.
  • Broncos are 0-8 ATS in Outdoor Night Games since 2000.
  • Titans are 1-5 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Broncos -3 (open) to Broncos -4 to Broncos -4 to Broncos -4.
  • Total Movement: 51 (open) to 50.
  • Weather: Clear, 20 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Rod Smith, Billy Volek, Drew Bennett.
  • Sit Em: Jake Plummer, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown (out), Antowain Smith, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Titans by 4. (Titans +4). Christmas Double Money Pick. Over.




Chargers (11-3) at Colts (11-3). Line: Colts by 7. Over-Under: 57.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Colts by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Colts by 3.

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: CHARGERS: OUT: WR Reche Caldwell, OT Courtney Van Buren, LB Zeke Moreno, CB Sammy Davis. DOUBTFUL: WR Keenan McCardell*. QUESTIONABLE: WR/PR Tim Dwight. COLTS: OUT: G Rick DeMulling, CB Donald Strickland, S Idrees Bashir, S Bob Sanders. QUESTIONABLE: TE Marcus Pollard, G Tupe Peko, LB Rob Morris.

Want to play at New England or at Pittsburgh in the second round of the playoffs? The winner of this game will have the luxury of playing at Gillette Stadium in round two, while the loser must travel to Heinz Field, assuming both the Chargers and the Colts win their opening round games.

Indianapolis may appear to have a solid defense after holding Baltimore to 10 points, but they will not be able to force San Diego to punt. Jamal Lewis pummeled the Colts' defensive front for 130 yards on 20 carries. LaDainian Tomlinson will do the same, allowing Drew Brees to torch a secondary that permits 241 passing yards per game. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis may be among the league leaders in sacks, but the Chargers' offensive line has been phenomenal this season, giving up just 18 sacks. Remember when Billy Volek embarrassed Indianapolis' defense by throwing bombs to Drew Bennett on Dec. 5? That will happen again because no one in the Colts secondary can cover Antonio Gates and the emerging Eric Parker.

Baltimore's defense slowed Peyton Manning down Sunday night. The Chargers should be able to do the same thing because Jamal Williams is perhaps the best run-stuffing nose tackle in the NFL. Williams' ability to stop the run negates the need for an eighth man in the box. Edgerrin James should be held to minimal yardage, forcing Manning to move the chains on long-yardage situations. Of course Manning will be able to engineer plenty of scoring drives, but the Chargers will force the Colts to punt more than they are used to.



The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Chargers are 6-0 ATS on the road this year.
  • Colts are 5-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 56 (open) to 57.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Offenses.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Chargers by 3. (Chargers +7). Upset Special. Over.




Ravens (8-6) at Steelers (13-1). Line: Steelers by 5. Over-Under: 33.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Steelers by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Steelers by 7.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: RAVENS: STEELERS: OUT: TE Jay Riemersma, G Kendall Simmons, NT Casey Hampton, LB Kendrell Bell, LB Clark Haggans, CB Chad Scott. QUESTIONABLE: RB Duce Staley*, WR Plaxico Burress*.

Both the Ravens and Steelers have a lot to play for. Baltimore needs a victory to stay afloat in a highly contested AFC wildcard race, while Pittsburgh would love to avenge their only loss of the season, clinching home field advantage throughout in the process.

Eli Manning's performance on Saturday had many Steelers fans wondering if Peyton Manning wore an Eli disguise at the Meadowlands. The younger Manning played well, but Pittsburgh was clearly looking ahead to this contest. Despite playing well of late, Kyle Boller will not perform as well as Eli. Boller will struggle against defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's chaotic Blitzburgh defense without much on the ground from Jamal Lewis. The Steelers are ranked third in run defense and suffocated Lewis in their Sept. 19 meeting. Lewis gained just 62 yards on 24 carries and should expect similar numbers Sunday.

I wrote last week that Baltimore's defense is a fraud and a farce. They did a commendable job against Indianapolis, but Peyton Manning was able to dismantle their stop unit once he settled down in the second half. Ben Roethlisberger will have a solid performance because he will have outstanding blocking from his offensive line and assistance from Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis. The Ravens are ranked first against the run, but Edgerrin James was able to burst for a few quality runs. Staley and Bettis will do the same, allowing Roethlisberger to throw downfield to Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El.

Baltimore may need this game more than Pittsburgh does, but I expect Roethlisberger to improve his impressive record to 13-0, claiming revenge against the Ravens.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Steelers have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Double Road Alert: Brian Billick is 3-1 ATS on the road following a road loss since 2001.
  • Steelers are 9-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Steelers are 5-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Steelers -5 (open) to Steelers -5.
  • Total Movement: 34 (open) to 33.
  • Weather: Sunny, 26 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Todd Heap, Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Steelers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Kyle Boller, Jamal Lewis, Travis Taylor, Plaxico Burress (out).

Prediction: Steelers by 10. (Steelers -5). Under.




Bears (5-9) at Lions (5-9). Line: Lions by 6. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Lions by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Lions by 4.

The Game. Edge: Lions.
Injuries: BEARS: OUT: QB Craig Krenzel, QB Rex Grossman, G Rex Tucker, G Ruben Brown, DE Adewale Ogunleye, LB Brian Urlacher, CB Todd McMillon S Mike Brown. QUESTIONABLE: OT John Tait, LB Joe Odom, S Bobby Gray. LIONS: OUT: WR Charles Rogers, LB Boss Bailey, S Brian Walker, KR/PR Eddie Drummond. DOUBTFUL: CB Fernando Bryant.

Brian Urlacher was voted as the most overrated player in the NFL in a recent poll. Maybe the person who anointed him with that title didn't realize that the Bears are 0-5 without the Pro Bowl middle linebacker. Urlacher was absent in Chicago's 24-5 loss to Houston where Bears fans witnessed Domanick Davis gash their defense for 95 yards on 25 carries. Kevin Jones will do the same, allowing Joey Harrington to utilize play-action against a secondary that surrenders 228 passing yards per contest on the road. Harrington broke out of his shell of struggles Sunday by torching Minnesota's defensive backs for 361 yards and two touchdowns, despite having the flu.

Many Bears fans and beat writers proclaimed Chad Hutchinson to be the next Jim McMahon after throwing three touchdowns against the Vikings on Dec. 5. However, Chicago has not witnessed a touchdown since that game. Detroit's secondary allows 228 passing yards per contest, but they will be able to put the clamps on Hutchinson after they suffocate Thomas Jones and the Bears rushing attack. The Lions are ranked fifth against the run, meaning Hutchinson will be forced to throw on many obvious passing situations. Detroit will place tons of pressure on Hutchinson and will sack the quarterback on many occasions because Chicago's woeful offensive line has permitted 55 sacks this season.

This game is not a money pick because the Lions have not beaten the Bears by more than three since 2000. However, Detroit will be able to score points Sunday because Urlacher is out of the lineup. Unless Chicago can somehow muster some points on the scoreboard, the Lions will cover an unfavorable six-point spread.


The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Home Team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 39-30 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 36.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Joey Harrington, Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, Lions Defense.
  • Sit Em: Bears Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Lions by 11. (Lions -6). Under.




Falcons (11-3) at Saints (6-8). Line: Saints by 4. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Falcons by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Falcons by 3.

The Game. Edge: Saints.
Injuries: FALCONS: OUT: FB Justin Griffith, FB Stanley Pritchett, S Keion Carpenter. DOUBTFUL: QB Michael Vick*, NT Ed Jasper, CB Jason Webster. QUESTIONABLE: RB T.J. Duckett*, WR Dez White*, TE Alge Crumpler*. SAINTS: OUT: DE Willie Whitehead, CB Ashley Ambrose. DOUBTFUL: LB Orlando Ruff. QUESTIONABLE: TE Ernie Conwell, OT Wayne Gandy, G Montrae Holland, LB Sedrick Hodge, S Mel Mitchell.

This was going to be my double money pick. The Saints have never beaten Michael Vick and they were favored. Easy money. However, Jim Mora Jr. announced that he will sit Michael Vick, Dez White, T.J. Duckett, Ed Jasper and other valuable players because his team is cemented with the second seed in the NFC playoff picture.

The Saints are ranked 27th against the run and surrender 248 passing yards per game, but rookie quarterback Matt Schaub will not be able to take advantage without several talented pieces missing from his offense. Schaub is a promising signal caller but with a skeleton crew on offense, it is difficult to envision Atlanta scoring many points Sunday.

Several key players will also be missing from a Falcons defense that has yielded more than 4.2 yards per carry in four of their last five contests, and allowed Jake Delhomme to throw for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Deuce McAllister will be able to trample a weakened defensive front, allowing Aaron Brooks to torch a battered secondary.

Mora Jr. is basically handing the game to his good friend, Jim Haslett. If the Saints blow this one, they should fire Haslett on the spot.


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • History: Falcons have won 14 of the last 19 meetings.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 31-59 ATS since 2001. Falcons kicked a GW FG in overtime.
  • Saints are 13-26 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Saints are 4-10 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Saints are 1-6 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Saints -2 (open) to Saints -3 to Saints -4 to Saints -4.
  • Total Movement: 46 (open) to 46.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Aaron Brooks, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn, Saints Defense.
  • Sit Em: Falcons Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Saints by 14. (Saints -4). Money Pick. Under.




Texans (6-8) at Jaguars (8-6). Line: Jaguars by 7. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Jaguars by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Jaguars by 5.

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: TEXANS: OUT: G Zach Wiegert, LB Jay Foreman, CB Marcus Coleman. QUESTIONABLE: KR J.J. Moses. JAGUARS: OUT: OT Mike Pearson, DE Lionel Barnes, DE Paul Spicer, DE Rob Meier, PR David Allen. DOUBTFUL: CB Juron Bolden. QUESTIONABLE: RB Fred Taylor*.

Houston has been out of the playoff picture for weeks, but you have to admire how valiantly they have played all season. They gave Peyton Manning a tough time two weeks ago, losing 23-14. They finally were able to pull one out against Chicago last week, 24-5. Just because the Jaguars have something to play for and the Texans do not, doesn't mean that they will simply lie down and let Jacksonville walk all over them.

Domanick Davis has officially broken out of his sophomore slump and is now 73 rushing yards away from 1,000. Dom Capers will attempt to establish the run, but his efforts will be futile against a very stout Jaguars run defense, which allows just 3.9 yards per carry. David Carr will be forced to throw on many long-yardage situations, which may not be a bad thing, considering Jacksonville was burnt for 367 yards and two touchdowns by Brett Favre on Sunday.

Contrary to Houston's lack of success on the ground, Fred Taylor will have a big day because the Texans yield 4.5 yards per carry. Leftwich will take advantage of Houston's inability to stop the run by torching a secondary that permits 240 passing yards per contest. Jacksonville will be able to control the clock and win this game.

Thinking about laying seven with the Jaguars? Consider this before you do. Jacksonville has won by more than six points once this year, which was a 22-3 victory over a Chicago Bears squad without Brian Urlacher.


The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • History: Texans have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Jaguars are 5-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Jaguars -6 (open) to Jaguars -7 to Jaguars -7 to Jaguars -7.
  • Total Movement: 38 (open) to 37.
  • Weather: Showers, 55 degrees. Mild Wind (16 mph).

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: David Carr, Andre Johnson, Byron Leftwich, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith.
  • Sit Em: Domanick Davis, Texans Defense.

Prediction: Jaguars by 6. (Texans +7). Under.




Giants (5-9) at Bengals (6-8). Line: Bengals by 5. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Bengals by 10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Bengals by 7.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Injuries: GIANTS: OUT: WR Tim Carter, WR James McKnight, G Barry Stokes, G Rich Seubert, G Chris Snee, DE Michael Strahan, DE Keith Washington, DT Norman Hand, LB Barrett Green, S Omar Stoutmire, S Shaun Williams, S Gibril Wilson. DOUBTFUL: WR Jamaar Taylor. QUESTIONABLE: OT Luke Petitgout, C Shaun O'Hara. BENGALS: OUT: WR Peter Warrick, WR Patrick Johnson, C Rich Braham, DT Tony Williams, DT Matthias Askew, LB Nate Webster, CB Rashad Bauman, CB Dennis Weathersby, CB Greg Brooks, P Kyle Richardson. DOUBTFUL: QB Carson Palmer*, DE Duane Clemons, S Rogers Beckett. QUESTIONABLE: CB Deltha O'Neal.

Eli Manning played well for the first time in his professional career Saturday against the Steelers, of all teams. Manning completed 16 of 23 passes for 182 yards, two touchdowns and just one interception. I did not expect this from Manning against Pittsburgh's Blitzburgh defense, and even though I was wrong, I remain a skeptic; I don't think Manning can repeat what he did on the road, in a hostile environment. To counter Manning's inevitable struggles to win his first road game, Tom Coughlin must establish the run with Tiki Barber. Cincinnati is ranked 24th against the run, yielding a miserable 4.6 yards per carry. If Barber can move the chains, Manning will be able to engineer a few scoring drives by utilizing play-action and connecting downfield to his favorite target, Jeremy Shockey.

All of that is nice, but how are the Giants supposed to stop the Bengals from scoring? New York is ranked 26th against the run and has surrendered 250 passing yards per game in the last four weeks. Rudi Johnson will enjoy galloping through wide-open running lanes, setting up play-action for either Carson Palmer or Jon Kitna. Palmer remains questionable, but Kitna should have no problems putting up points against a Giants unit that has given up 32 points per contest since Michael Strahan's injury.


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 39-30 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Bengals -6 (open) to Bengals -5.
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 28 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Bengals by 14. (Bengals -5). Over.




Patriots (12-2) at Jets (10-4). Line: Patriots by 1. Over-Under: 42.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Patriots by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Patriots by 4.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: PATRIOTS: OUT: TE Ben Watson, OT Adrian Klemm, OT Tom Ashworth, NT Dan Klecko, CB Tyrone Poole. QUESTIONABLE: RB Kevin Faulk, WR David Givens, WR/KR Bethel Johnson, TE Daniel Graham, LB Matt Chatham, CB Ty Law, CB Asante Samuel, CB Randall Gay. JETS: OUT: DE John Abraham, DT Josh Evans, CB Ray Mickens.

The Miami Dolphins weren't the only ones who were able to expose chinks in the Patriots once-stellar defense. Carson Palmer and Jon Kitna combined for 328 passing yards and three touchdowns the week before. A.J. Feeley looked like a two-time Super Bowl MVP on Monday Night. New England is desperately missing Ty Law and Tyrone Poole, thanks to the lack of additions to their secondary this offseason. The Patriots of 2002 faltered because they were unable to stop big, bruising running backs. The Patriots of 2004 will falter because they cannot stop precision passers.

Chad Pennington fits into the mold of a precision passer, but with Ty Law expected to play, he may struggle to find open receivers. Law's presence will allow the Patriots to load up against Curtis Marin, the league's leading rusher. Off a humiliating loss to the Dolphins, expect New England to play with the savvy of a Super Bowl champ.

The Jets will also have trouble forcing New England to punt. New York is strong against the run, surrendering just 3.8 yards per carry, but Corey Dillon is another running back that is very difficult to bring down, especially when numerous teams are focused on containing Tom Brady and his oft-reliable throws. Brady's poor performance can be viewed three ways: An anomaly, a lack of preparation by Charlie Weis, which won't happen again, or the result of intense pressure by Jason Taylor. The latter won't be a problem Sunday because fierce pass rusher John Abraham is listed as doubtful.

Remember when the Patriots lost to the Steelers and rebounded with an impressive 40-22 victory at St. Louis? I will be shocked if New England doesn't win at the Meadowlands.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Double Road Alert: Bill Belichick is 3-1 ATS on the road following a road loss since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Patriots -3 (open) to Patriots -2 to Patriots -1.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 42 to 42.
  • Weather: Sunny, 33 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Curtis Martin, Tom Brady, Corey Dillon.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Patriots by 3. (Patriots -1). Double Money Pick. Under.




Bills (8-6) at 49ers (2-12). Line: Bills by 11. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Bills by 9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Bills by 10.

The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: BILLS: OUT: RB Travis Henry*, C Trey Teague. QUESTIONABLE: RB Willis McGahee*. 49ERS: OUT: QB Tim Rattay, C Jeremy Newberry, DT Anthony Adams, LB Julian Peterson, CB Ahmed Plummer, CB Mike Rumph. QUESTIONABLE: DE Andre Carter, LB Jamie Winborn.

The Bills are a road favorite of 11? Yeah, the 49ers are that bad. They cannot stop the run nor the pass, and consequently permit 28 points per game. Willis McGahee is questionable, but should be able to play Sunday. McGahee has been a potent threat out of the backfield since he took over the starting running back position. He is just 53 rushing yards away from the millennium mark and will easily eclipse that plateau against a battered 49ers defense. Drew Bledsoe will utilize play-action, taking advantage of a very young secondary that is missing starting cornerbacks Ahmed Plummer and Mike Rumph.

San Francisco's offense is so anemic, their defense is a Super Bowl-caliber compared to their scoring unit. Tim Rattay is out for the season, which means the weak-armed (not to mention inaccurate and inexperienced) Ken Dorsey will start. Dorsey has no support from Kevan Barlow, who gains just 3.2 yards per rush. Eric Johnson is the only reliable target that Dorsey can throw to. Furthermore, the Bills have one of the elite defenses in the NFL and they are playing for a wildcard spot. Buffalo is ranked fourth in run defense and yields just 173 passing yards per contest.

Watch the injury report. If both Travis Henry and McGahee are out, take the 49ers. Otherwise, go with the Bills.


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 39-30 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: BILLS play the Steelers next week.
  • 49ers are 2-5 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Bills -10 (open) to Bills -11.
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 44 to 43.
  • Weather: Showers, 52 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Drew Bledsoe, Willis McGahee, Eric Moulds, Eric Johnson, Bills Defense.
  • Sit Em: 49ers Offense (not Eric Johnson) and Defense.

Prediction: Bills by 20. (Bills -11). Over.




Cardinals (5-9) at Seahawks (7-7). Line: Seahawks by 7. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Seahawks by 10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Seahawks by 5.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: CARDINALS: OUT: RB Marcel Shipp, RB Troy Hambrick, FB James Hodgins, OT L.J. Shelton, CB Renaldo Hill. QUESTIONABLE: LB Raynoch Thompson. SEAHAWKS: OUT: DE Grant Wistrom, DT Marcus Tubbs, LB Anthony Simmons, CB Bobby Taylor, S Damien Robinson, P Tom Rouen. QUESTIONABLE: QB Matt Hasselbeck*, LB Chad Brown.

Arizona may be 5-9, but if they win out (at Seahawks, vs. Buccaneers) and both the Rams (vs. Eagles, vs. Jets) and the Seahawks (vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons) lose out, the Cardinals will win the NFC West with a 7-9 record, the first time any team has won their division with a losing record.

The Cardinals will control the clock because they are committed to the run. Emmitt Smith and Josh Scobey will combine for nearly 30 carries against a Seattle defense that permits 4.5 yards per rush. Smith's frequent bursts through wide-open running lanes will allow the improving Josh McCown to utilize play-action and connect downfield to his trio of talented receivers-Bryant Johnson, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. McCown displayed flashes of brilliance Sunday, when he completed 22 of 34 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns. Seattle's secondary allows 234 passing yards per contest, so McCown will continue his torrid play.

Seattle will also move the chains because the Cardinals cannot stop the run when playing away from Sun Devil Stadium. Arizona yields 5.3 yards per carry on the road, compared to just 4.1 at home. Shaun Alexander will eclipse the 150-yard barrier, allowing Matt Hasselbeck to easily find Darrell Jackson, Jerry Rice and Koren Robinson, who is returning from his four-game suspension. However, there is some cause for concern for Seattle because the Cardinals seem to have Hasselbeck's number. He completed just 14 of 41 pass attempts for 195 yards, one touchdown and a whopping four interceptions in his previous match-up against Arizona on Oct. 24.

Both teams are evenly matched, so the team that wins this game will be the one that makes fewer mistakes. Seattle has had a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot since their second loss to St. Louis, so look for the Cardinals to pull the improbable upset at Qwest Field.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Seahawks have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Seahawks are 1-5 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Seahawks -7 (open) to Seahawks -7.
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 43.
  • Weather: Showers, 42 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Josh McCown, Emmitt Smith, Bryant Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Shaun Alexander, Darrell Jackson, Koren Robinson, Jerry Rice.
  • Sit Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Cardinals by 7. (Cardinals +7). Money Pick. Over.




Redskins (5-9) at Cowboys (5-9). Line: Redskins by 2. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Cowboys by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Cowboys by 3.

The Game. Edge: Redskins.
Injuries: REDSKINS: OUT: OT Jon Jansen, DE Phillip Daniels, LB Mike Barrow, S Matt Bowen, K John Hall, KR Chad Morton. COWBOYS: COWBOYS: OUT: WR Terry Glenn, LB Al Singleton, CB Pete Hunter, CB Tyrone Williams, S Darren Woodson.

Both teams are 5-9, but the winner of this game will move into a tie for the final wildcard spot if the Panthers, Rams and Saints all lose.

Washington's offense did not score more than 18 points until their Dec. 5 match-up against the Giants. Everything just clicked. Patrick Ramsey displayed that he can actually deliver the ball downfield, which has opened up more running lanes for Clinton Portis. The Redskins have averaged 23.7 points in their last three games. Dallas cannot stop the run, meaning Joe Gibbs will establish Portis early and often, setting up play-action for Ramsey, who will be attacking a secondary that surrenders 231 passing yards per contest.

Julius Jones looks like the next great Cowboys running back, but the Redskins' second-ranked run defense should be able to bottle him up. Vinny Testaverde will be forced to throw on many obvious passing situations, which will have defensive backs Fred Smoot, Shawn Springs and Sean Taylor foaming at the mouth. Testaverde will undoubtedly throw a few interceptions Sunday.

The Redskins have a strong edge on paper, but Dallas always seems to find a way to win against Washington, even when they are heavily out-matched. The last time the Redskins won at Texas Stadium was in 1995.


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • History: Cowboys have won 12 of the last 13 meetings.
  • Line Movement: Cowboys -2 (open) to Cowboys -1 to Redskins -2.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Patrick Ramsey, Clinton Portis, Rod Gardner, Laveraneus Coles, Jason Witten, Redskins Defense.
  • Sit Em: Vinny Testaverde, Julius Jones, Keyshawn Johnson.

Prediction: Cowboys by 3. (Cowboys +2). Money Pick. Under.




Panthers (6-8) at Buccaneers (5-9). Line: Buccaneers by 3. Over-Under: 39.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Panthers by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Panthers by 3.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: PANTHERS: OUT: RB Stephen Davis, RB DeShaun Foster, RB Joey Harris, WR Steve Smith, G Bruce Nelson, G Doug Brzezinski, DT Kris Jenkins, DT Shane Burton, S Damien Richardson. BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Charlie Garner, TE Rickey Dudley, TE Will Heller, G Kerry Jenkins, C John Wade, DT Anthony McFarland.

Carolina has a stronghold over the sixth and final seed in the NFC, despite their loss to Atlanta on Saturday. The Buccaneers need a miracle to qualify for the playoffs, but they will not roll over and die. The Panthers essentially ended Tampa Bay's season in 2003 and the Bucs would like to return the favor.

The Panthers are able to dominate the Buccaneers because of their power running game. Nick Goings has appeared out of thin-air and rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his five starts. Tampa Bay's small defensive front, which is missing Anthony McFarland, cannot stop the run. Goings gained 106 yards on 23 carries against the Buccaneers on Nov. 28, and will once again eclipse the century plateau, allowing Jake Delhomme to utilize play-action, connecting with Muhsin Muhammad and Keary Colbert downfield.

Tampa Bay will have problems establishing the run, unlike their divisional foes. Carolina has allowed more than 3.3 yards per carry to running backs just once since Halloween. Pittman struggled against the Panthers' strong defensive front, accumulating just 29 yards on 18 carries. Brian Griese will have to throw on many unfavorable long-yardage situations, where he will undoubtedly be harassed by Julius Peppers and the rest of the ferocious Panthers defense.



The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Panthers have won the last 3 meetings.
  • Double Road Alert: John Fox is 0-3 ATS on the road following a road loss since 2001.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 39-30 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 40 to 39.
  • Weather: Showers, 59 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Delhomme, Nick Goings, Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Michael Pittman, Mike Alstott, Buccaneers Defense.

Prediction: Panthers by 4. (Panthers +3). Money Pick. Under.




Browns (3-11) at Dolphins (3-11). Line: Dolphins by 7. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Dolphins by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Dolphins by 7.

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
Injuries: BROWNS: OUT: QB Jeff Garcia, WR Andre Davis, TE Kellen Winslow Jr., OT Ryan Tucker, G Kelvin Garmon, C Jeff Faine, DE Courtney Brown, LB Ben Taylor, LB Brant Boyer, CB Mike Lehan. DOUBTFUL: S Chris Cocker. QUESTIONABLE: QB Kelly Holcomb*, TE Aaron Shea, TE Steve Heiden, DE Kenard Lang, DT Orpheus Roye, CB Mike Lehan. DOLPHINS: OUT: QB Jay Fiedler, RB Lamar Gordon, FB Rob Konrad, WR David Boston, DT Larry Chester, DT Tim Bowens, LB Junior Seau, LB Brant Boyer, LB Eddie Moore, S Shawn Wooden, S Chris Akins. QUESTIONABLE: C Seth McKinney, LB Zach Thomas.

Interim coach Terry Robiskie said Kelly Holcomb will be the third quarterback Sunday, behind rookies Luke McCown and Josh Harris. That said, the Browns will attempt to establish the run with Lee Suggs and William Green. However, Cleveland has eclipsed the 100-rushing yard barrier as a team just once since Oct. 24. The Browns will not be able to run the ball, placing the two rookie quarterbacks in long-yardage situations with Jason Taylor breathing down their necks. I don't know how the Browns will score any points.

Miami's offense is also based upon the pass, but the difference between these two teams are the skill players the Dolphins possess. Randy McMichael, Chris Chambers and Marty Booker are all superior to anyone in Cleveland's wide receiving and tight end corps. A.J. Feeley finally played well, defeating the Patriots on Monday night. Miami will consistently move the chains against a Browns defense that has allowed 39.5 points per game in the last month.

This game has let-down written all over it. However, taking the Browns to cover any kind of point spread is simply moronic. They are not capable of scoring points and their defense is terrible. They have not covered a spread in seven weeks and have lost their last three games by an average of 26 points per contest.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Post Monday Night Syndrome: Teams coming off a Monday night victory are 10-17 ATS the following week since 2003.
  • Browns are 0-6 ATS on the road this year.
  • Dolphins are 3-12 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Dolphins are 2-5 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Showers, 65 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Randy McMichael, Dolphins Defense.
  • Sit Em: Browns Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Dolphins by 20. (Dolphins -7). Under.




Eagles (13-1) at Rams (6-8). Line: Rams by 3. Over-Under: 46.
Monday, 9:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Eagles by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Eagles by 3.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: EAGLES: OUT: RB Brian Westbrook*, RB Correll Buckhalter, FB Jon Ritchie, WR Terrell Owens*, G Shawn Andrews, G Jermaine Mayberry, DE Jevon Kearse*, DE Ndukwe Kalu, DE Derrick Burgess, DT Hollis Thomas, LB Jason Short, LB Nate Wayne. QUESTIONABLE: WR Todd Pinkston. RAMS: OUT: OT Kyle Turley, C Dave Wohlabaugh, S Aeneas Williams, S Zack Bronson. QUESTIONABLE: TE Brandon Manumaleuna, G Chris Dishman.

Terrell Owens will not be available for the rest of the regular season, the NFC playoffs and even the Super Bowl, says Ike Reese, an Eagles linebacker. Philadelphia's chances of qualifying for the Super Bowl have decreased a bit, while their chances of winning it all are very slim.

However, their chances of winning this Monday night affair are great because the Rams are simply awful. They allowed Arizona to score 31 points last week. St. Louis cannot stop neither the run nor the pass, so expect to see a heavy dose of Brian Westbrook and L.J. Smith. Donovan McNabb proved that he is not afraid to run when he needs to, so the Eagles will convert a fair number of third down situations.

If Philadelphia's defense has a weakness, it is against the run. The Eagles match up very well against the Rams because Mike Martz is stubborn and does not run the football enough. He called just 10 running plays in Sunday's 31-7 debacle at Sun Devil Stadium, despite being stuck with Jamie Martin and Chris Chandler at the helm. Marc Bulger will play, which just means that Martz will throw the ball more frequently. Bulger will be destroyed in the pocket by Jevon Kearse and the Eagles' front four. Bulger will move the chains and score on occasion, but it won't be enough to win.

Monday morning update: Howard Eskin of 610 WIP reports that Brian Westbrook and Jevon Kearse will not play. Donovan McNabb and various other starters will see limited action. This game is no longer a money pick.


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Eagles are 7-1 ATS on Monday Night Football since 2001.
  • Eagles are 28-11 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Rams are 1-4 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 47 (open) to 46.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jeff Blake, Dorsey Levens, Chad Lewis, L.J. Smith, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Eagles Defense.
  • Sit Em: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Todd Pinkston, Freddie Mitchell, Marshall Faulk, Steven Jackson, Rams Defense.

Prediction: Eagles by 10. (Eagles +3). Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 8-5
Eagles: 9-5
Giants: 8-6
Redskins: 7-7

Bears: 8-6
Lions: 7-7
Packers: 8-6
Vikings: 3-11

Buccaneers: 5-7
Falcons: 6-7
Panthers: 9-4
Saints: 9-5

49ers: 5-9
Cardinals: 8-6
Rams: 8-5
Seahawks: 6-8

Bills: 11-3
Dolphins: 7-7
Jets: 8-5
Patriots: 7-5

Bengals: 8-6
Browns: 10-4
Ravens: 8-6
Steelers: 4-10

Colts: 8-5
Jaguars: 7-7
Texans: 9-5
Titans: 6-8

Broncos: 7-4
Chargers: 8-4
Chiefs: 5-9
Raiders: 9-5

Divisional Games: 47-39
Trend Edge: 28-33*
Game Edge: 42-38*
Game & Trend Edge: 8-7*


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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

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