Well, I lost in Survivor, but I would say Week 10 was a success. I hit my November Pick of the Month, as the Cardinals beat
the Lions, 31-21. I was also 8-5-1 overall, with money picks going 5-1-1.
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my
Sports Betting FAQ
Arizona Cardinals (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 48.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10):
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10):
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Bengals.
OUT: QB Matt Leinart, OT Oliver Ross.
OUT: RB Chris Perry, DE Frostee Rucker, LB Odell Thurman, LB David Pollack, LB Rashad Jeanty.
Before we get to this exciting game that will have everyone glued to
the TV for about three hours, let's do our weekly Vegas recap. The
sportsbooks have won two Sundays in a row after a dismal Week 7; they
collected on Arizona, Jacksonville, Philadelphia and especially San
Diego. They suffered two defeats - Dallas and Chicago both covered -
but like any bettor, Vegas will take a 4-2 day.
It seems like the books are trying to sucker some gamblers into taking
Cincinnati. The line opened at -3.5, but dropped to -3 despite all the
action on the host. Why all the money on the Bengals? Because they're
back! They went into Baltimore and won. Chris Henry is a great third
option for Carson Palmer. And the defense completely shut down Willis
Give me a break. Cincinnati is two weeks removed from losing to the
Bills by double digits. They also were embarrassed by the mediocre
Chiefs. The Bengals' stop unit still ranks 27th versus the run and
28th against the pass. Kurt Warner, who shredded Detroit's secondary,
will have similar success playing a defensive backfield that yielded 295 yards
to J.P. Losman and 272 yards to Chad Pennington. Edgerrin James may
break the 100-yard rushing barrier.
Cincinnati, of course, will be able to move the chains, seeing as how
Henry, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are too much for any
secondary to handle. If the Cardinals want to win this game, they'll
have to force Palmer into some turnovers - which is a plausible
expectation because they did so to Jon Kitna - and contain the run.
Arizona surrenders only 3.8 yards per carry, so the Bengals will be
forced to attack the Cardinals one-dimensionally.
This seems too easy, doesn't it? Ask nine out of 10 people who wins
and covers this game, and they'll tell you the Bengals. This line is
conspicuously short, so the Cardinals seem like the right side to me.
Also, besides one contest where Kurt Warner left the game in the first
quarter with an injury, Arizona has not lost a game more than seven.
Furthermore, exclude that aforementioned contest, and the Cardinals
have only one defeat of more than a field goal. Arizona is still extremely
underrated despite its blowout victory over Detroit.
The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
This would be a Sandwich Situation
for the Bengals if they weren't 3-6. They have the Titans and Steelers coming up.
The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Don't you feel as though this line is a little short? I had the Bengals at -4. There could be lots of action on Cincinnati.
Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 70% (64,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 21-30 ATS since 2002 (Ken Whisenhunt 2-1).
Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.
Opening Total: 48.
Weather: Cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Carson Palmer. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Chris Henry.
Sit Em: Rudi Johnson, Bengals Defense.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Cardinals 27
Cardinals +3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Over 48 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$100
Cardinals 35, Bengals 27.
Carolina Panthers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (8-1)
Line: Packers by 9.5. Total: 37.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Packers -7.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Packers -9.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: PANTHERS: OUT: QB Jake Delhomme. PACKERS: OUT: RB DeShawn Wynn, S Nick Collins.
In my previous write-up, I told you how Vegas did last weekend. If
only the books gave out some cool props, they could rake in a lot more
cash. Last week, I mentioned the Over hit for "Cheesesteaks Andy Reid
devoured during the sentencing of his two sons - 54,204." How about
some other possible props? Some definite overs would have been"
"Animals Mark Mangino either ate or turned into robots in Stillwater,
Oklahoma - 66,013;" "Men who look like Jim Mora Sr. on Syracuse's
sideline - 55;" and "Slabs of meat required to pass by Sylvester Croom
and Romeo Crennel in Level 7 - 2." Don't these guys remind you of that
thing in the Zelda game that says "Grumble, Grumble?" I'm actually expecting
Mark Schlereth to comment, "Romeo Crennel dislikes smoke" any day now.
I think I'm the wrong person to ask about the Packers. In the wake of
their blowout victory over the Vikings, I'm 1-7 against the spread in
Green Bay games this year. I feel confidently about this selection, so
you should probably place your second mortgage on the opposite team.
I like Carolina to cover the 10. The Panthers, for whatever reason, play
well as an underdog and lose as a favorite. It seldom fails.
They were favored by more than three against Atlanta, and Houston, and
managed to lose both. Yet, they've covered three of five contests when
they've been giving points. I don't know why this occurs; I'm just
going to keep rolling with it.
The Packers have to falter sooner or later, don't they? They found
their running game against the Vikings of all teams, so they have
nothing to work on going into a contest that takes place four days
prior to their big tilt at Detroit on Thanksgiving. I don't know how
focused Green Bay will be, and it seems as though this battle means
more to Carolina. That said, I just don't see how the Panthers'
pathetic defense can stop Brett Favre. The stop unit has just nine
sacks, so it won't be able to rattle the future Hall-of-Famer.
Stopping the run will also be an issue now; if Minnesota couldn't
contain Ryan Grant, how will Carolina? Furthermore, I just don't see
Old Man Vinny Testaverde, David "Deer in the Headlights" Carr and
Mandy Moore moving the chains effectively versus a Packers defense
that has 26 sacks and ranks 14th versus the run.
Like I said before, I want to take the points here, so you might want
to lay the 10. But this contest means more to the Panthers than the
Packers, who could be caught looking ahead to Detroit. Plus, Carolina
rarely fails as a dog.
The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
Two weeks ago, the Chargers were in this situation. Last Sunday it was Detroit. Now, the Packers are in a Breather Alert. Following this "easy" contest, they have Detroit and Dallas.
The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
I can't see anyone backing the Panthers. Green Bay's on fire, and Carolina just lost to the Falcons at home.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 86% (114,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
Panthers are 25-12 ATS as an underdog the previous 37 instances.
Opening Line: Packers -10.5.
Opening Total: 37.5.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 44 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Steve Smith, Brett Favre, Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Packers Defense.
Sit Em: Panthers Offense (except Smith) and Defense.
Prediction: Packers 17, Panthers 13
Panthers +9.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Under 37.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
Packers 31, Panthers 17.
Cleveland Browns (5-4) at Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Ravens -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Ravens -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Browns.
Injuries: BROWNS: OUT: OT Ryan Tucker, C LeCharles Bentley, LB Willie McGinest.
RAVENS: OUT: QB Steve McNair, LB Dan Cody.
I really hate those new AT&T commercials, the ones where someone talks
about how they need the network in all the places they live or work. You know,
Vergacalamentoflagantonio and Philaprogacagaway. Well, I have new AT&T, and I need it to work in, uhh, my bedroom.
Seriously, I have one bar everywhere I go. I can't talk on the phone
to anyone, and I miss like 20 calls a day. True story: One time I sent
a text message to a friend who lives a few houses down. He received it
three weeks later. I'm dead serious.
I made this line Baltimore -3. Well, the spread was close, but I had
the wrong team favored. It seems like the public has finally caught on
to how good the Browns are. Even I was impressed by their performance
last week against the Steelers. I didn't think they could hang, but
they were a few yards short of taking the third-best team in the
league into overtime. Derek Anderson continues to dazzle, Jamal Lewis
will definitely keep running hard (especially against his old team),
the offensive line has permitted just eight sacks this season, and
Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. are among the elite receiving
tandems in the NFL. The last time the Browns and Ravens clashed,
Anderson put up 207 yards and two scores, en route to a 27-13 victory.
Baltimore's defense is very mediocre right now; Ray Lewis, Chris
McAlister and Samari Rolle are all past their primes. I don't see any
reason to think Cleveland's offense will slow down.
Baltimore's scoring attack, meanwhile, is pathetic. In fact, the
quarterbacking display the two teams put on against the Bengals has inspired me to rank
Brian Billick's signal callers during his tenure as the Ravens head
coach next week. Steve McNair and Kyle Boller combined for two picks
and three fumbles against Cincinnati's putrid defense. The Browns'
stop unit can't contain anyone either, but if the Bengals can do it,
Cleveland can too. In fact, it already did; the 13 points Baltimore
put up in the Week 4 battle is the least amount the Browns
have held anyone to this year.
I made the mistake of dismissing Cleveland as a live road favorite
when it played at St. Louis. I'm not making the same mistake again.
The Browns are a much better team than the Ravens, who have covered
only one game this year despite playing the Jets, Rams, Cardinals,
49ers and Bengals twice. The amount of action on Cleveland scares me,
which is why this is just a 1-Unit play. However, I don't think the
line is shady at all, so any play on the Browns is probably safe.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
I guess you can say this is do or die for both teams. Both will bring 100 percent.
The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
The Browns are favored!? Wow! I thought the Ravens would be giving three. The oddsmakers really want the public to take the Ravens, huh?
Percentage of money on Cleveland: 81% (93,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Browns.
History: Home Team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 95-68 ATS on the road following a road loss (Romeo Crennel 4-0 regardless).
Ravens are 19-10 ATS in November.
Ravens are 13-3 ATS in November home games since 2000.
Opening Line: Browns -3.
Opening Total: 44.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr., Willis McGahee.
Sit Em: Jamal Lewis.
Prediction: Browns 23, Ravens 17
Browns -2.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Under 43.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Browns 33, Ravens 30.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (7-2)
Line: Colts by 14.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Colts -13.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Colts -14.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: CHIEFS: OUT: RB Larry Johnson*. COLTS: OUT: DE Dwight Freeney, DT Anthony McFarland, OLB Rob Morris.
By now, I'm sure you've heard that the Vikings fined Troy Williamson
for skipping practice to attend his grandmother's funeral. I have two
things to say about this. First of all, do you think Minnesota would
have done the same thing if Adrian Peterson had the same excuse? And
how can anyone be so heartless? I know the Vikings rescinded the fine,
but the fact they even considered it is disturbing. In other
news, Minnesota plans to take $250,000 away from Brooks Bollinger
because he donated a kidney to a dying man during a team meeting.
Everyone on the Chiefs may need a kidney when this game is over.
Congratulations, Herm Edwards, your team is a sacrificial lamb. The
Colts, angry that they lost two games in a row, including a contest
they really shouldn't have (Chargers), will unleash the dogs against a
squad coming off back-to-back home losses.
Kansas City will not contain Peyton Manning. But that's obvious.
Manning, who struggles against the 3-4, as witnessed last week, will
eat up the Chiefs' mediocre 4-3. Kansas City is ranked 19th versus the
pass, and has old corners who will not be able to keep up with Reggie
Wayne and Marvin Harrison (assuming the latter plays). The Chiefs are
equally sub par versus the run (19th), so expect lots of Joseph Addai
Now that we've established that the Colts will seldom punt the ball,
we have to ask ourselves if the Chiefs can keep up with them. The
answer is simply, no. Brodie Croyle is making his first start, and
won't have the services of Larry Johnson. Priest Holmes did nothing
last week, gaining just 65 rushing yards against the league's worst
ground defense. Holmes won't find any lanes versus
Indianapolis (13th versus the run), which will force the raw Croyle -
sounds like Japanese food, doesn't it? - into obvious passing downs.
The Colts, who shut down San Diego's offense, will put the clamps on
anything the Chiefs attempt to establish.
Like I said, Kansas City is a sacrificial lamb - and Vegas knows it.
That's why they added on the extra .5 hook to make sure some bettors
stay away from betting the Colts. I won't be fooled.
By the way, I lost in Survivor last week, but for those of you who still want help in that department, this would have been my Week 11 Survivor Pick.
The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
Think the Colts want to bounce back off back-to-back losses? The Chiefs will be a sacrificial lamb.
The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
Looks like the books want to keep the public away from the Colts. Some people might be scared of the .5 hook.
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 77% (78,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Opening Line: Colts -14.5.
Opening Total: 44.5.
Start Em: Tony Gonzalez, Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Kenton Keith, Reggie Wayne, Colts Defense.
Sit Em: Brodie Croyle, Priest Holmes, Chiefs Defense.
Prediction: Colts 34, Chiefs 7
Colts -14.5 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$220
Under 41.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Survivor Pick (9-1)
Colts 13, Chiefs 10.
Miami Dolphins (0-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)
Line: Eagles by 9.5. Total: 40.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Eagles -8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Eagles -9.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: DOLPHINS: OUT: QB Trent Green, S Yeremiah Bell. EXPECTED TO START: QB John Beck.
You know that new "it's a hybrid hybrid?" commercial where some girl
asks her dad to drop her off a block away from the movie theater
because everyone in that neighborhood drives clean cars? My problem with
this ad is that I'm convinced the girl, who's supposed to be
14 or so, is really 50. Seriously, look at her face. This is definitely some
sort of conspiracy. I'm also willing to bet she's Brittany Reid's
girlfriend or something too. Don't worry, I'll get to the bottom of
I haven't had much success with the Eagles - albeit I've done much
better with them than I've done with the Packers - but I'm confident I
have them figured out now. Let's go through their schedule and try to
determine some sort of pattern. The first two weeks of the season,
Philly fans were confident. The Eagles lost to the Packers, but
everyone blamed that on Andy Reid's punt-return folly. However,
Washington trashed the Birds on Monday night, turning the entire city
against its beloved team. In Week 3, everyone believed Philadelphia
would lose to Detroit, despite the fact the former was a 6-point
favorite. The team came away with its biggest victory of the season.
Everyone was back on the bandwagon after that, and everyone was
disappointed when the Giants sacked Donovan McNabb five million times.
Following the bye and a close call against the Jets of all teams,
expectations were rising once again. There weren't many people who
thought the Eagles would lose to the Bears, who just suffered a home
defeat to the Vikings. Once again, everyone was wrong. A week later,
Philadelphia once again rebounded after being a slim favorite at
Minnesota. The following Sunday night, everyone was hopeful that the
Eagles would show up to play against Dallas, in what was the biggest
game of the year. The Cowboys destroyed the spirits of everyone in
Philadelphia. And last week, when everyone was down on the Birds and
counted them out, McNabb and company somehow scored 33 on a tough
Redskins defense, improving their mark to 4-5.
The moral of the story? This Eagles squad falters when expectations
are high, and shocks the world when everyone predicts a defeat.
Assuming I'm correct, Philadelphia is due for another letdown. I'm not
saying the team will lose to winless Miami; I just think this contest will
Despite being 0-9, the Dolphins have participated in close battles.
They nearly slayed the Giants in London; they probably should have
knocked off Buffalo last week; and tilts against the Redskins, Jets
and Texans were all decided by a field goal. Jesse Chatman, who is
averaging more than five yards per carry, should be able to run right
through an Eagles' stop unit that couldn't stop Clinton Portis and
made Jason Campbell look like an All-Pro quarterback last Sunday.
Unfortunately for the winless Fins, I can't see their defense having much luck
versus the Eagles. It seems as though Andy Reid has finally discovered
the lost art of the screen pass; he ran it multiple times against
Washington, which is why Brian Westbrook was able to accumulate 183
total yards and three touchdowns. Miami's cornerbacks aren't talented
enough to lock down the mediocre Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown. The
Dolphins' defense as a whole is old and slow. Philadelphia will
probably be able to score at will.
Despite that last paragraph, I think this contest will be close. As I
wrote above, the Eagles suck when expectations are high. Couple that
with the fact that this is a Sandwich Situation for
Philadelphia, a team coming off a divisional upset on the road, and
looking forward to battling the Patriots next week. Plus, it's not
like taking 0-9 teams hasn't been profitable in the past.
The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
Definitely a Sandwich Situation for the Eagles, who are coming off a Redskins victory and will be looking ahead to New England. The Dolphins are still desperate for a victory.
The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
The public will be buying the good news. To them, the Eagles are a solid team after winning in Washington. No one's going to back an 0-9 squad.
Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 69% (81,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
Zero Trend: 0-9 (or worse) teams are 7-0 ATS since 2000.
Zero Trend: 0-9 (or worse) teams are 4-0 ATS vs. non-losing teams since 2000.
Eagles are 22-14 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
Eagles are 7-15 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
Opening Line: Eagles -10.5.
Opening Total: 41.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Jesse Chatman, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Curtis.
Sit Em: Both Defenses.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Dolphins 17
Dolphins +9.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$440
Under 40.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Eagles 17, Dolphins 7.
New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Houston Texans (4-5)
Line: Texans by 1. Total: 48.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Saints -3.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Saints -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Texans.
Injuries: SAINTS: OUT: RB Deuce McAllister.
TEXANS: QUESTIONABLE: QB Matt Schaub*, RB Ahman Green*, WR Andre Johnson*, TE Owen Daniels*.
Ron Jaworski's the man. Did you see his reaction when Steve Young was
talking about how he can feel if a quarterback is going to be
a bust or not? Jaworski was literally on the edge of his seat. He was
ready to jump out of it and break through the press-box window - almost as if he pulled a Larry David and shoved a gerbil
up his rear end! However, Jaws said something puzzling during
when discussing the Bears quarterback situation: "I believe there is
still upside in Rex Grossman." Upside? To do what, throw even more
interceptions and fumbles than he committed already? Blow even more
big games? Ruin another Super Bowl? I guess Grossman's limitations are
endless after all.
Speaking of poor quarterbacking, that's something the Texans won't
endure this week. Not that Sage Rosenfels was bad; he's just no
Matt Schaub, who did a great job leading Houston when Andre Johnson
was in the lineup. With the pair together, Schaub was 36-of-50, 452
yards, three touchdowns and a pick. Without Johnson, Schaub struggled
a bit, but managed to keep things close against the Colts the
following week. Luckily for Houston, its Pro Bowl receiver is back,
along with Owen Daniels and Ahman Green. Johnson will be a force to be
reckoned with, which is bad news for a Saints secondary that played
like little girls against the Rams last week. I already feel sorry
for Jason David. He's already toast.
Houston's defense has been very mediocre this year. The unit is 28th
against the run and 13th versus the pass. That actually works out well
here; New Orleans excels at airing the ball out, but cannot pound the
rock up the middle. If the Texans can force the Saints to be extremely
one-dimensional, they have a great chance to win this game.
I love the Texans in this spot. Here's a list of reasons:
Texans Underrated: As I wrote in the second
paragraph, the Texans are getting their starting quarterback, running
back, top receiver and tight end back from injury. You'll see the team
that clobbered the Chiefs and Panthers; not the one that lost to the
Falcons and got blown out at San Diego.
Saints Overrated: Yes, the Saints just lost to
the Rams, but the public still remembers that they won four in a row.
But let's look at whom they beat during that stretch: Seattle,
Atlanta, San Francisco and Jacksonville. Of those four squads, two
stink; one is erratic; and the other was flat after giving 200 percent
at Tampa Bay. Before that winning streak, New Orleans lost at home to
the Panthers. The Panthers!
Shady Line: I made this line Saints -3. It
opened at Saints -1. Clearly, Vegas wants the public to pound New
Orleans, as everyone is calling this a lock. As of Tuesday afternoon,
87 percent of the money in Vegas is on the Saints.
Shady Line Movement: Even more evidence the
books want action on New Orleans. Despite all the cash on the visitor,
the line moved to Texans -1. This is exactly what happened in last
week's Detroit-Arizona tilt!
Saints Unfocused: After this "easy" victory
over a losing team, the Saints have three divisional games. Winning
those means much more than beating some "mediocre" AFC squad.
The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
The Saints could be looking to bounce back off a loss, but this isn't a must-win. They're only one game out of first place. Plus, they have three divisional
matchups after this contest.
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Despite New Orleans' loss to the Rams, I think the average bettor would rather take them over the mundane Texans.
Percentage of money on New Orleans: 77% (63,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Saints.
Saints are 37-24 ATS on the road since 2000.
Drew Brees is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Opening Line: Saints -1.
Opening Total: 47.
Weather: Retractable Roof.
Start Em: Marques Colston, Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels.
Sit Em: Reggie Bush, Saints Defense, Ahman Green.
Prediction: Texans 34, Saints 20
Texans -1 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
Over 48 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Texans 23, Saints 10.
Oakland Raiders (2-7) at Minnesota Vikings (3-6)
Line: Vikings by 4.5. Total: 35.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Vikings -5.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Vikings -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: RB Michael Bush. VIKINGS: OUT: RB Adrian Peterson*.
This line gets the crown for shadiest spread of the week. Speaking of
shady, I had a weird conversation over instant messenger with some guy
spam-link advertiser whose screen name was
"Weblinkcohit." Check out how odd this is:
Weblinkcohit: Do u have any kind of health related data
Me: I'm not even sure what that is.
Weblinkcohit: I need a health site page rank 1 to 3. I
have sport site.
Me: I don't really know what to say to that... A sport site?
Weblinkcohit: If you can share data with me.
Me: What data do you need?
Weblinkcohit: Tell me whats your style for link exchange
Me: Style? I don't know, man.
Weblinkcohit: I think you r just designer of your site.
Me: Just a designer?
Weblinkcohit: OK thanx anyway. I must go back to work.
Take care have nice days.
Ummm... OK!? Who would employ a shady dude whose grammar
rivals Emmitt Smith's? I thought the
people who spammed my forum were weirdos, but this guy takes the cake.
Or rather, this guy takes the health-related data.
As I briefly mentioned in the opening paragraph, this is an extremely
shady line, even more so than the one for New Orleans-Houston. The
Vikings just got blown out, 34-0. They're missing their only talented
player (Adrian Peterson) on offense. They're unwatchable. Yet, they're
5.5-point favorites over the Raiders. Who in their right mind would
lay 5.5 with the horrendous Vikings? Every single square bettor is
looking at this line and saying, "Wowwa weewa, I can't put money on
Minnesota laying 5.5. They suck! I'm going with the Raiders! Sexy
time!" OK, every single square bettor from Kazakhstan.
Peterson's gone, but the Vikings still have Chester Taylor, who's
averaging five yards per carry. Coincidentally, that's the exact
figure Oakland is giving up on the ground. While Taylor is no
Peterson, I think he'll be able to gain about 150 rushing yards,
setting up play-action opportunities for whichever dud is playing
quarterback for Minnesota. The Raiders have only 14 sacks this year,
so it looks like Minnesota will have "great success" moving the chains
The Vikings' defense was extremely flat at Green Bay, for whatever
reason, as it couldn't contain Ryan Grant on the ground. I'll chalk
that up as a fluke, seeing as how Minnesota is second against the run.
All Oakland can do is pound the football; Josh McCown and Daunte
Culpepper have combined for 27 sacks, 13 interceptions and 15
fumbles. Those really are astronomical numbers. The Vikings should be
able to hold the Raiders' offense to single digits.
Good spot and line for Minnesota when you combine the shady spread,
Vegas effect and matchup advantages it has over Oakland. I wrote
earlier than no one is crazy enough to lay the points with the
Peterson-less Vikings. Scratch that; no one besides me is crazy enough
to do that.
The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.
The Vikings could be looking to rebound off an embarrassing loss. That's the only psychological edge I could find, but it's not a strong one, as Oakland is also coming off a defeat.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Why are the Vikings such a big favorite? It seems as though Vegas is baiting the public into taking Oakland.
Percentage of money on Oakland: 66% (51,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
Raiders are 7-19 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
Opening Line: Vikings -6.
Opening Total: 36.5.
Start Em: Chester Taylor, Vikings Defense.
Sit Em: Raiders Offense.
Prediction: Vikings 17, Raiders 3
Vikings -4.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Under 35.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Vikings 29, Raiders 22.
San Diego Chargers (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 40.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Jaguars -1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Pick.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: JAGUARS: OUT: DT Marcus Stroud, K Josh Scobee.
I was confused as to why NBC moved the potential New England-Buffalo
blowout to Sunday
night instead of this contest, but then I realized the Patriots don't
play many better teams
than the Bills the rest of the season. Let's see... the Eagles are
mediocre, while the
Jets and Dolphins both suck. Baltimore is on Monday night; the Giants
are on the NFL Network; while the Pittsburgh matchup will be
impossible to snatch away from CBS. Speaking of the Week 15
Jets-Patriots rematch, I was thinking how fun that game will be, given
that Bill Belichick will undoubtedly flatten Eric Mangini for snitching
in the Overblown Videotaping Gate. Patriots 73, Jets 0? Not so fast.
How about this for a scenario? What if New England intentionally loses
to the Jets? They'll still maintain homefield advantage, and by going
down, they'll worsen New York's 2008 draft pick, which in turn will
strengthen theirs, assuming the 49ers keep on losing. How cold-hearted
would that tactic be?
San Diego left everything on the field
against the Colts. Unless I'm completely off, I don't
think they'll have anything left in the tank. Last week's 23-21
victory over Indianapolis was their Super Bowl. They looked past the
Vikings, gave 200 percent and will undoubtedly be flat at
Jacksonville. And yes, there is precedent for this; in 2005, following
a 26-17 win at Indianapolis, the Chargers lost a must-win game at
Kansas City, 20-7. Keep in mind that they also suffered a defeat as
double-digit home favorites against the Dolphins beforehand.
The Jaguars, who are coming off a big win themselves, will be prepared
for the squad that knocked off their most hated rival. Say what you
want about Jacksonville and its tendency to not show up to a few contests
each year, but Jack Del Rio has this team prepared for all the big
games. This is definitely an important battle.
The Jaguars did a great job proving that Week 1 was a fluke by
clamping down on the run last Sunday. They held Tennessee's potent
rushing attack to just 0.9 yards per carry. LaDainian Tomlinson is
much more talented than LenDale White, but if you look at the numbers,
Tomlinson's rushing average isn't all that impressive (4.2). San
Diego's bruised and battered offensive line just isn't blocking that
well, meaning Jacksonville has a great shot to stuff Tomlinson in the
backfield, forcing Philip Rivers into obvious passing downs. That
won't be good news for San Diego, as Rivers is really struggling right
now. I don't see him emerging against a defense that has 24 sacks and
ranks eighth in points allowed.
If I'm right about the Chargers being flat, Maurice Jones-Drew and
Fred Taylor have the potential to eclipse 200 rushing yards. A tired
defense in the NFL never fares well against the run, which is exactly
what Jacksonville does best. Jones-Drew and Taylor will set up
play-action opportunities for David Garrard, who is expected to
I don't see San Diego matching Jacksonville's intensity. The team just
won its Super Bowl and is undoubtedly spending the early portion of
this week bragging about how it knocked off the Colts. Now, the
Chargers have to fly cross country to battle a physically taxing team
that needs this contest more. This is a very tough spot for them.
The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
Wow, how can the Chargers come close to matching the effort they put forth against the Colts? The Jaguars are coming back off a long road trip, but they'll get up for a squad that just beat their archrival.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Both teams had impressive victories on the road, so I'd expect something close to 50-50.
Percentage of money on San Diego: 56% (90,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 21-30 ATS since 2002 (Norv Turner 4-2).
Boomerang Game: Teams returning home from a three-game road trip are 8-16 ATS since 2000.
Jaguars are 9-5 ATS in November home games since 2000.
Jaguars are 4-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
Opening Line: Jaguars -3.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 71 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Antonio Gates, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars Defense.
Sit Em: Chargers Defense.
Prediction: Jaguars 23, Chargers 7
Jaguars -3 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
Under 40.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Jaguars 24, Chargers 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 35.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Buccaneers -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Buccaneers -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
Injuries: BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Cadillac Williams, RB Michael Pittman, OT Luke Petitgout, DE Patrick Chukwurah, CB Torrie Cox.
FALCONS: OUT: QB Michael Vick.
It's time for more grammar lessons from Emmitt Smith! Perhaps if you
use these quotes at your local DMV, you can get a handicapped license
1. "This team need to get in their mind." (Commentary: Apparently,
Emmitt believes certain teams are capable of telekinesis. I guess he's a huge fan of Matt Parkman's.)
2. "That would definitely be a slowed down." (Commentary: He did say
this, but I wasn't paying attention, so I don't know what he was
referring to. Who knows? Maybe it actually made sense.)
3. "If it slip in Week 1, it slip in Week 8." (Commentary: I don't
know what slip in Week 1, but clearly the same thing happened in Week
8. Let's just hope that when it slip in Week 15, the verb is actually
This is one of those games where Vegas sits on a line that looks short
to most people and basically says, "You, the public, can take Tampa
Bay all you want. We've got the Falcons. We'll see who wins." The
books win these contests more often than not. So, let's try to build a
case for Atlanta.
Ever since getting blown out on Monday night against the Giants,
Atlanta has covered every single game. Joey Harrington has quietly
pieced together three solid performances, going a combined 45-of-69
for 463 yards, a touchdown and a pick. In fact, exclude that Giants
debacle, and the last time the Falcons haven't covered is Week 3, when
DeAngelo Hall single-handedly ruined his team's chances against Jake
Delhomme and the Carolina Panthers by racking up 67 penalty yards on a
Another reason I'm convinced this is a difficult game for the
Buccaneers is their inability to play well on the road. Just check out
the results. Excluding a victory at Carolina, in a contest where David
Carr failed to complete his eighth pass until the fourth quarter, Tampa
Bay is winless as a visitor. It lost 20-6 at Seattle, 33-14 at
Indianapolis and 23-16 at Detroit. Until the Buccaneers prove they can
beat a solid team on the road, I have to remain a bit skeptical.
That said, I understand that Atlanta is not a solid team. Joey
Harrington is still Joey Harrington. Warrick Dunn is 32 years old. The
receivers, with the exception of Roddy White, all stink. The offensive
line can't pass protect. The defense is 18th versus the run and has
only 13 sacks. And despite all that, the Falcons are just 3-point
underdogs to a winning football team.
It seems as though the books could have made the Buccaneers a 4- or a
5-point favorite to induce equal betting action. But they didn't. The
line is set in stone at three, despite all of the cash on the visitor.
Siding with Vegas seems like the right move, especially when
considering it is backing an underrated team playing a slightly
overrated squad that has yet to prove itself outside of its own stadium.
The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
The Buccaneers have the Redskins and Saints after this "easy" game, making this sort of a Breather Alert. That said, I don't know if Tampa Bay is looking ahead to Washington.
The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Tampa will be a heavily backed road favorite.
Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 86% (66,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
History: Buccaneers have won 9 of the last 13 meetings.
Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.
Opening Total: 35.5.
Start Em: Joey Galloway, Buccaneers Defense.
Sit Em: Warrick Dunn.
Prediction: Falcons 16, Buccaneers 13
Falcons +3 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$220
Under 35.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Buccaneers 31, Falcons 7.
New York Giants (6-3) at Detroit Lions (6-3)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 48.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Giants -2.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: LIONS: OUT: S Daniel Bullocks.
If you saw the Giants-Cowboys game, you may have noticed that New York
was wearing its cherry-red jerseys. Turns out that according to the
Sunday NFL Countdown crew, they hoped for a psychological edge,
and they wanted Tony Romo to see the rush coming. If you need to wear
red to have a psychological edge, something's wrong. Why would you
want Romo to see the rush anyway? And wearing red to have an edge
sounds like a wife who thinks her husband has lost interest in her,
doesn't it? Is Tom Coughlin not telling us something here? Is he a
horny, desperate housewife who doesn't have the legs to wear a red
dress, so he decided to don it vicariously through his team? I just
made myself gag thinking about that.
The line movement in this game really angered me. When I saw that the
Lions were favored, I nearly jumped out of my seat. I was excited
about the prospect of betting Detroit after it was blown out in
Arizona. As I wrote last week, the Lions are garbage on the road;
they've now been killed thrice (at the Cardinals, Eagles and
Redskins). But as host, they're undefeated, beating the likes of
Denver, Tampa Bay and Chicago. The Giants, meanwhile, are overrated
because they won six games in a row. Five of those victories were over
the Eagles (4-5), Jets (1-8), Falcons (3-6), 49ers (2-7) and Dolphins
(0-9). A real group of winners. They were exposed against the Cowboys,
getting outscored 14-3 in the second half. I considered Detroit a
solid play here because of the shady line and the overrated-underrated
However, the spread for some reason soared to Giants -2.5. I'm not
sure what caused this to happen, other than all of the action on New
York. But still, why go from shady to completely plausible? It's weird, and
I guess we'll just have to see what happens.
The game itself should be interesting, and I was disappointed that FOX
moved this game from 4:15 to 1 p.m. because I was looking forward to
watching it. Of course, we know that Eli Manning will shred Detroit's
abysmal secondary ranked 30th versus the pass. That's obvious. But
the Lions' ability to move the chains is in question. Jon Kitna will
either torch the Giants' pathetic defensive backfield, or New York's
four-defensive-end rotation will sack Kitna into oblivion. I'm not
sure - but seeing as how Detroit may have to keep up with the Giants'
offense, Kitna may have to press the issue, which could lead to sacks
If you're looking for a confident opinion on this contest, I'd advise
you to look elsewhere. I have no idea whom to pick here. There is a
chance, however, that the Giants have commenced their late-season
swoon. Also, the fact that the Lions, who are undefeated at home, were
looking forward to this contest by blowing the Cardinals game says a
lot. If New York is flat in the wake of its defeat to Dallas, Detroit
will come out on top.
The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
Important contest for both teams, but this is a statement game for the Lions, especially after getting blown out at Arizona. Plus, New York could be flat in the wake of its loss to Dallas.
The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
The Lions are favored? Isn't the entire betting public simply going to pound the Giants? Doesn't this seem similar to last week's Detroit-Arizona tilt?
Percentage of money on New York: 78% (75,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Five Snap: Non-undefeated teams having a 5+ game winning streak snapped are 15-8 ATS the following game since 2002 (Tom Coughlin 0-1).
Five Snap: Non-undefeated underdogs having a 5+ game winning streak snapped are 8-3 ATS the following game since 2002 (Tom Coughlin 0-1).
Jon Kitna is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
Opening Line: Lions -1.
Opening Total: 50.
Start Em: Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Giants Defense, Jon Kitna, Roy Williams.
Sit Em: Lions Defense.
Prediction: Lions 24, Giants 21
Lions +3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Under 48.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Giants 16, Lions 10.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) at New York Jets (1-8)
Line: Steelers by 9.5. Total: 40.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Steelers -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Steelers -7.
Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: JETS: OUT: LB Jonathan Vilma.
It's time for more Emmitt Smith! These aren't about grammatical errors; they
are factually incorrect comments he made this weekend:
1. "He was blindsided by Al Jackson. I think it's going to be three
weeks before he get back." (Commentary: Forget the grammatical error
for a second. Who the hell is Al Jackson? According to NFL.com's
player database there is no one in the league named Al Jackson. It was
bad enough that Emmitt was butchering the English language. Now he's
making up players. This man must be stopped.)
2. "The NFC West is one of the... weakest... CONFERENCES... in the
NFC." (Commentary: Time to learn league alignment, Emmitt. There are
no conferences in the National Football Conference. That just wouldn't
make any sense. But I guess when it slip in Week 1 and slip in Week 8,
something that nuts must make some sort of sense.)
3. "It's hard to grow up when you're learning three different offenses
every year." (Commentary: Wow, no wonder Alex Smith sucks. He's
learning three new offenses every single year! The turnover rate of
offensive coordinators in San Francisco must be really high!)
The Jets are one of the most underrated teams in
the NFL right now. Kellen Clemens is so much better than Chad
Pennington, it's sick. Where Pennington lofted interceptable balls
toward the slideline, Clemens fires the rock into the arms of his
receivers. Where Pennington falls to the turf at the first sign of
pressure, Clemens uses his legs and strong build to escape, and either
buy time or scramble downfield. Where Pennington's cockiness deters
the rest of his team away from him, Clemens' leadership is already
evident despite the fact that this is his second year in the league.
Clemens gives the Jets a chance to win, and more importantly, cover
this game. Aside from the underrated angle, there are two reasons why
I think the host is the right side. Pittsburgh is coming off two
fierce divisional battles, one of which required an impressive
comeback and a last-second missed field goal. After essentially
claiming their division, how can the Steelers possibly get up for the
"woeful" 1-8 Jets? Also, the spread is moving in the Jets' direction;
the line has moved from -9.5 to -9, despite all of the cash on the
visitor (92 percent as of Tuesday evening).
Look, there's no denying that the Steelers are the superior squad. The
Jets' pathetic defense will not be able to stop Willie Parker, Ben
Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller.
Pittsburgh's stop unit, on the other hand, is talented and dominating
enough to suffocate Clemens, Thomas Jones and company. It would be
foolish to delve into the matchups because the Steelers own them all.
However, picking football is all about finding spots, and for reasons
I've described in the previous two paragraphs, I think this is a bad
one for Pittsburgh and a great one for the Jets.
The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
A tough spot for the Steelers, who are coming off an Emotional Win in a contest that basically decided the AFC West. How are they going to get up for the one-win Jets? New York looks like it's playing harder for Kellen Clemens.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
The Steelers are a public team and will once again be heavily bet upon.
Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 87% (108,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
Steelers are 20-7 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 27 instances.
Ben Roethlisberger is 41-13 as a starter (35-19 ATS).
Jets are 13-25-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 41 instances (6-8 under Eric Mangini).
Opening Line: Steelers -9.5.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 46 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery.
Sit Em: Thomas Jones, Jets Defense.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Jets 16
Jets +9.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$400
Under 40 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
Jets 19, Steelers 16.
Washington Redskins (5-4) at Dallas Cowboys (8-1)
Line: Cowboys by 11. Total: 47.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Cowboys -9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Cowboys -10.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
Injuries: REDSKINS: OUT: OT Jon Jansen. COWBOYS: OUT: WR Terry Glenn, NT Jason Ferguson.
I'm scared. With actors like Arnold Schwarzenegger, who are incapable
of conducting basic coin flips at football games, running for political
office, who knows who's going to be in charge of our country 30 years
from now? Let's pray it's not "this" two:
Debate Moderator: Welcome to the 2032 Presidential Debate! Let's
start with Emmitt Smith. What is your stance on gay marriage?
Emmitt: My stances says gay marriage would definitely be a slowed
down if you gets in his mind. If it slip in the marriage, it slip in
the honeymoons." Moderator: Excellent answer. Your turn,
Channing Crowder! Crowder: Yo man, I'm all for gay marriage,
it's better than a sad marriage. From what I hear, the state of San
Francisco has the least gays in the county of United America, so
maybe they'll have a problem with it there. Moderator: How do
you feel about America's declining education, Emmitt? Emmitt: Are
educations are good. Moderator: Your rebuttal, Channing?
Crowder: I'm not sure what an education is, but if I'm president,
I'll round up all the British people and deport them back to where
they came from - south of the border. Ha! Moderator: Last question.
Emmitt, do you think we should colonize Mars? Emmitt:
Colonizing are a good idea. If I am make president, I will start doing
these right away.
I love the Redskins a lot in this contest for so many different reasons,
none of which have to do with the matchups. Well, actually, if there's
one team in the NFC East who can actually keep up with the Cowboys,
it's Washington because of its defense. It's impossible to stop
Terrell Owens, but the Redskins' cornerbacks are among the best the conference has to offer. The Redskins can also get to the quarterback (22
sacks) and stop the run (they allow just 3.8 yards per carry.)
However, it seems as though the public is down on them because they
surrendered 33 points to the Eagles. That brings me to my first point.
The Redskins are Underrated. I was watching a local
sportstalk TV show where Charley Casserly suggested the Eagles are
just as good as the Redskins. This coming from the guy who drafted
Jabar Gaffney over Clinton Portis, and selected David Ragone in the
third round. Washington
faltered against the Eagles because it was looking forward to this
contest. The team was flat and made numerous uncharacteristic errors.
The Redskins nearly knocked off the Packers in Lambeau earlier this
season. They also demolished the Lions, and would have knocked off the
Giants if their offensive coordinator didn't really suck.
Dallas Will Be Flat. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are
coming off their biggest win of the year. They have the NFC East
wrapped up. They can't possibly take Washington seriously. After all,
they demolished the Eagles, who then went on to beat the Redskins. I
wouldn't be surprised if Dallas' entire locker room considers
Washington a joke. As I noted in the previous paragraph, the Redskins
are anything but.
This is Washington's Super Bowl. The Redskins hate the Cowboys more than any other team in the league. This contest means more
to them than any other game on their slate. If they can knock off the
Cowboys, who likely won't be able to match the Redskins'
intensity, they can dispatch their archrival, while moving up into a
wildcard spot, barring an unlikely Giants-Lions tie.
Always Close. You almost have to grab double digits
in a huge rivalry, especially when one team is at least mediocre. The
Redskins and Cowboys seldom blow each other out. Granted, Dallas beat
Washington at home, 27-10 last year, but the latter was missing
Clinton Portis. In their 2006 rematch, the Redskins actually beat
Dallas, 22-19. Since 2001, only three contests between the two squads
have been decided by double digits.
The Vegas. And finally, fading the public is always
profitable. With the amount of cash riding on Dallas, the Redskins
seem like the right side. Also consider that the line opened up
Cowboys -11 and dropped to -10.5, despite all the action on the host.
That should tell you where the books want the public's money.
So there it is. The Redskins are underrated and will be more focused
than a Cowboys squad that will be flat in a heated rivalry that's
almost always close, where the money is going the host's way. Ugh, why
did I write all those paragraphs? All I needed was that one sentence.
The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
When the NFL schedule comes out, I jot down some notes. Here's one pertaining to this game: "If Dal win Weeks 9 and 10 + Wash sucks, Sandwich Situation." I stand by that. This game means more to the Redskins.
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
The Cowboys are America's team. They are also the average bettor's team. I doubt many people will like the Redskins after they lost to the Eagles.
Percentage of money on Dallas: 89% (114,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
History: Redskins have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 45-35 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002.
Tony Romo is 12-6 ATS as a starter.
Opening Line: Cowboys -11.
Opening Total: 47.5.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Cowboys Defense.
Sit Em: Julius Jones, Marion Barber.
Prediction: Cowboys 23, Redskins 20
Redskins +11 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$400
Under 47 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Cowboys 28, Redskins 23.
St. Louis Rams (1-8) at San Francisco 49ers (2-7)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 39.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): 49ers -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Rams -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Rams.
Injuries: RAMS: OUT: OT Orlando Pace, DE Leonard Little, CB Tye Hill. 49ERS: OUT: DE/OLB Manny Lawson. EXPECTED TO START: QB Trent Dilfer.
These next two leads will delve into ESPN's perplexing Monday Night
Football broadcast. Tony
Kornheiser, whom I consider extremely funny and
entertaining, had this to say when the Seahawks quickly established a
7-0 lead against the 49ers: "This is the kind of drive the Seahawks
have been waiting for for two years now." Two years? Ummm... the
Seahawks just scored 30 on the Browns last week. Are you telling me
that they didn't have a perfect drive in that contest? In other news,
Tony-K will be informing us that Abraham Lincoln was assassinated.
We've been waiting for two years to hear that bit of news!
Why are they even having this game? Seriously. Who cares? It's weird
because the 49ers don't even have anything to lose for because New
England stole their No. 1 draft pick. So, I guess only the Patriots come out
on top if the Rams win. That's just unfair.
Speaking of the Rams winning, I love it. Every single person on TV is
exclaiming, "Oh wow, this Rams team is good, they have great players,
they're so explosive, blah blah blah." They're 1-8! They lost at home
to the 49ers, Browns, Cardinals and Panthers! They were blown out by
the Ravens, Seahawks and Buccaneers! They're garbage! One stupid win
over a Saints squad that didn't show up to the game is supposed to
make the Rams great again? Give me a break.
Besides that, St. Louis sucked on grass even when they were good. I
think the 49ers, completely embarrassed by Monday night's performance,
will rebound with their greatest effort of the year. I didn't expect
much from San Francisco at Seattle, given that the death of Mike
Nolan's father kept him away from the team for a week. Nolan had no
gameplan for the Seahawks, and his team consequently looked lost. But
now, seven days later, he'll have his humiliated squad prepared for a team that
he already beat on the road. I don't know how Nolan's going to do it,
given that Alex Smith sucks, Frank Gore doesn't get enough touches,
the receivers can't get open or catch the ball, the line can't block and the defense
can't stop anyone. But Nolan will get the job done. I think.
Thinking like a square bettor for a second, I can't find any reason to
take San Francisco. That's exactly why there's so much money on the
Rams. With that in mind, the line hasn't budged off three. This is one
of those "Vegas vs. the Public" games like the Buccaneers-Falcons
tilt, where the books are telling the average bettor, "You take the
Rams. We'll grab the 49ers. We'll see who wins." You can't beat the
house, so why not join it?
Friday Note: Trent Dilfer is starting. In my mind, this strengthens San Francisco's "us against the world" menatlity they'll be playing
with this weekend.
The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
I'm not sure how focused the Rams will be now that they've notched their first win. The 49ers, meanwhile, look like they're playing dead.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
No one's going to bet on the 49ers after they saw what happened on Monday night. The Rams are back!
Percentage of money on St. Louis: 93% (66,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
History: 49ers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Monday Misery: Teams coming off a 17+ loss on Monday Night Football are 11-24 ATS since 1999.
Two Roads (Win): Current and '06 head coaches are 79-63 ATS on the road following a road win.
Rams are 14-30 ATS in road games since 2001.
Rams are 7-21 ATS on grass since 2001.
Alex Smith is 3-1 ATS after back-to-back losses.
Opening Line: Rams -2.5.
Opening Total: 41.
Weather: Showers, 63 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Frank Gore.
Sit Em: Both Defenses.
Prediction: 49ers 19, Rams 16
49ers +3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Under 39 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Rams 13, 49ers 9.
Chicago Bears (4-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4)
Line: Seahawks by 5.5. Total: 37.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Seahawks -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Seahawks -6.
Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: BEARS: OUT: G Ruben Brown, DT Dusty Dvoracek, CB Nathan Vasher, S Mike Brown. QUESTIONABLE: QB Brian Griese.
SEAHAWKS: OUT: WR Deion Branch, DT Marcus Tubbs.
More confusing quotes from Monday night. Listen to what Stuart Scott asked: "The
Seahawks have a league-low two rushing touchdowns. Rachel, how do you
change that without Shaun Alexander?" Someone else later said, "The
Seahawks withstood the loss of Alexander." Are these people stuck in
2005? Shaun Alexander sucks. The Seahawks should cut him. Right now,
his best attribute is eating hot dogs on the
sideline. When he's on the field, all he does is flop down on the
ground at the first hint of contact because he's scared and/or lazy.
Actually, now that I think about it, I'm wrong; Alexander was shown
clapping for his team in the fourth quarter. Mike Holmgren should keep
him on the sidelines as a male cheerleader. His clapping is more than
anything he's done for his team all year. Oh, and by the way, Seattle
increased their rushing touchdown total to three.
If Mike Holmgren decides to go ballistic with the aerial attack again,
deciding to pass on every down, Chicago's defense will be ready. That
tactic worked against a 49ers team that looked lost, but the Bears,
despite their troubles in their secondary, will apply heavy pressure
on Matt Hasselbeck. Chicago actually has an incredible 29 sacks this
year, so Seattle needs some sort of a threat at running back.
Alexander is one of the worst starting backs in the league, but maybe
the Bears, like Stuart Scott and company, still think he's good. If
so, they'll at least respect Seattle's ground attack and lay off
Hasselbeck just a bit.
There aren't many members of the media who have figured out how much
Alexander truly sucks. As indicated by Ron Jaworski's quote earlier on
this page, there apparently are still some believers out there who
think Rex Grossman has some potential. Ugh. When will it end? When
will everyone just concede that Grossman is abysmal and extremely
turnover-prone? Even if he has a few solid games in a row, I'll still
say that he sucks. I'll always say that he sucks. And Brian Griese is
just as bad. And Cedric Benson is a bum. Can you tell I don't think
Chicago's going to have much luck getting into the end zone?
A few reasons to take Seattle: First, this line opened at -5.5 and
increased to -6, following the 73-percent action on the Seahawks. Secondly, it's extremely difficult to travel up to the Pacific Northwest and beat Seattle.
And finally, the Seahawks will be seeking double revenge after getting swept by Chicago last year.
The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
The Seahawks could probably lose four consecutive games and still be first in the NFC West. This game means more to Chicago. Then again, this is
Double Revenge for the Seahawks.
The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
I would think the Seahawks receive more action than the Bears, given their 24-0 victory on Monday night.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (51,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bears.
Monday Might: Teams coming off a 17+ win on Monday Night Football are 27-15 ATS since 1999 (Mike Holmgren 2-0).
Two Homes (Win): Mike Holmgren is 3-9 ATS at home following a home win.
Two Roads (Win): Current and '06 head coaches are 79-63 ATS on the road following a road win (Lovie Smith 3-0).
Bears are 16-5 ATS in November since 2001.
Opening Line: Seahawks -5.5.
Opening Total: 37.5.
Weather: Showers, 45 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Bobby Engram, D.J. Hackett, Both Defenses.
Sit Em: Cedric Benson.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Bears 20
Seahawks -5.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Over 37.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Seahawks 30, Bears 23.
New England Patriots (9-0) at Buffalo Bills (5-4)
Line: Patriots by 15.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Patriots -14.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Patriots -14.
Sunday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: PATRIOTS: OUT: WR Troy Brown.
BILLS: OUT: WR Peerless Price, TE Kevin Everett, DE Ryan Denney, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Jason Webster.
Before I discuss this Patriots-Bills game, take a look at my Week 11 Look-Alike Pictures featuring A.C. Slater
from Saved by the Bell.
I ran a poll earlier this week, asking the voters what they thought
was more likely to happen: The Patriots going 19-0, or the Dolphins
finishing 0-16. More than half the people chose the former. I was one of
them. So, obviously, I think New England is going to win its 10th game
of the season on Sunday night. But will they cover?
First of all, let's establish that the Patriots' offense is going to
be difficult to stop. I know the Bills had an extremely emotional
Monday night battle against the Cowboys, where they forced Tony Romo
into five interceptions. But Romo is young, and this is the first year
this Dallas squad is an elite team. The Patriots and Tom Brady are as
seasoned as it gets in the NFL. They've won three championships for a
reason. Unlike the Cowboys, who were looking ahead to battling New
England, the Patriots will be focused on the task at hand. There's a
reason they've been so successful following a bye under Bill
I have to give the Bills a lot of credit; they've turned their
campaign around with an improved defense. However, the Redskins,
Cowboys, Colts and Chargers all failed to keep New England from
lighting up the scoreboard. Buffalo will not be able to contain Randy
Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Ben Watson and Laurence Maroney.
No one can.
The Bills must keep up with the Patriots if they want a chance to even
cover this ridiculous spread. That's not happening. They just
don't have the horses. Marshawn Lynch has been solid, Lee Evans is a
dangerous threat and J.P. Losman has had his moments, but New
England's extremely talented defense put the clamps on Indianapolis,
Cleveland, Cincinnati and Dallas. They shouldn't have a problem
limiting the Bills to 14 points or less.
Sure, Buffalo has an emotional edge, playing as a home dog under the
lights on national television, but when the talent disparity is this
huge, it just doesn't matter. Vegas keeps pushing up this spread,
hoping bettors will bite on the Bills. Don't be the guy who keeps
gambling against what could be the greatest team of all time.
The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Bills would love to beat the Patriots. New England doesn't have anyone good next week, so it'll be focused.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
I don't think Vegas can make this line high enough. There would still be heavy action on New England if this spread were 20.
Percentage of money on New England: 88% (120,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
History: Patriots have won 13 of the last 14 meetings.
Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 45-35 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Dick Jauron 1-4).
Bye Bye: Bill Belichick is 5-2 ATS off a bye.
Patriots are 23-9 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
Tom Brady is 91-25 as a starter (74-40 ATS).
Bills are 13-5 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
Bills are 22-7 ATS in November home games the previous 29 contests.
Bills are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Bills are 2-17 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.
Opening Line: Patriots -14.5.
Opening Total: 46.5.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 34 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Patriots Defense.
Sit Em: Marshawn Lynch, Bills Defense.
Prediction: Patriots 48, Bills 14
Patriots -15.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$300
Over 46.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Patriots 56, Bills 10.
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Denver Broncos (4-5)
Line: Broncos by 1.5. Total: 38.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10): Titans -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10): Broncos -3.
Monday, 8:30 ET - Buy Tickets
The Game. Edge: Titans.
Injuries: TITANS: OUT: WR David Givens, CB Pacman Jones.
BRONCOS: OUT: WR Javon Walker, WR Rod Smith, C Tom Nalen.
Before I get to my Monday night dissertation, I want to mention that you can compete against me and others by picking
football games at the Picking Forum. You'll be able to pick every game starting Wednesday
afternoon, and you can post comments for each contest as well. No prizes, but you do get bragging rights.
Are the Broncos Good Again? Dennis Field, who runs the Picking Forum, had something interesting to say when I talked to him on the phone
Monday night. He stated that the Broncos, like the Eagles and a few other squads in this league, are one of those teams where people exclaim, "They're
back!" following a victory. Think about it - everyone was down on Denver prior to the Pittsburgh contest. When it beat the Steelers, everyone was high on
the Broncos. That quickly faded away following a home loss to the Packers and a blowout defeat at Detroit. Last week, Denver beat the Chiefs, who have a bum
quarterback, a fossilized running back and a defense that can't stop anything. Big whoop. But no, the Broncos are back again! Give me a break.
Think about it this way. When the Cardinals beat the Steelers by a touchdown at home, no one thought they were legitimate. When the Broncos did the same
thing by only a field goal, people thought they were going to make the playoffs. It doesn't make sense.
To Most People, Vince Young Sucks. The Titans are not like the Broncos and Eagles. People don't like them because their quarterback has
terrible numbers. Terrible numbers, that is, except for the ones that count the most. Say what you want about Young's throwing ability, but he's 13-7
as a starter and 7-1 against the spread as a road underdog. I don't even care if people say Young sucks. From now on, I'm just keeping my mouth closed and
profiting off him. Tennessee is much better than Denver, so the fact that the former is a 1.5-point underdog already seems like a great play. But I'm not
Interesting Line Movement. When the Broncos opened up as 3-point favorites, there was about 70-percent action on the visitor. Nothing
substantial, but enough to get the oddsmaker to move the spread down to 1.5. If Vegas really thought Denver was the right side, it would have kept the line
where it was. Moving it down means it wanted to induce action on the Broncos, and it got its wish.
The Shanahan Trends. I look at trends, but unless I come across something really strong, I'll consider something else before making my
pick. Well, there are a pair of powerful trends going against the Broncos in this spot. First, Denver absolutely sucks as a favorite. The past two years,
the team is 3-15 on the number when laying points. Also, for whatever reason, Shanahan just can't cover a home contest prior to a back-to-back road trip.
This worked a few weeks ago against the Packers.
On Tennessee's side of the trend spectrum, we can simply look at how Young has done as a road underdog. Furthermore, following a loss, the Titans are 2-0
this year, with both wins coming on the road and eclipsing the spread.
And Finally, the Matchups. This is easy. The Titans run the ball well. The Broncos can't stop it (32nd). Denver runs the ball well.
Tennessee stops it (4th). I told you it was easy!
The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams are a game out of first place. I think this means a lot to both squads.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
The public will buy Denver's good news (a blowout victory at Kansas City) and sell Tennessee's bad news (a home blowout loss to the Jaguars in which Vince Young struggled). Expect tons of cash on the host.
Percentage of money on Tennessee: 54% (141,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Titans.
Vince Young is 13-7 as a starter (14-6 ATS).
Vince Young is 7-1 ATS as a road dog.
Broncos are 14-10 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 23 instances.
Broncos are 3-15 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
Broncos are 1-10 ATS before back-to-back road games the previous 11 instances.
Broncos are 4-9 ATS in November home games since 2000.
Opening Line: Broncos -3.
Opening Total: 38.5.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.
Start Em: LenDale White.
Sit Em: Travis Henry, Selvin Young.
Prediction: Titans 17, Broncos 13
Titans +1.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$440
Under 38 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
Broncos 34, Titans 20.
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Anti-Public Parlay: Cardinals +4 (bought 0.5), Texans -1, Panthers +10, Lions +3, Jets +10, Redskins +11, 49ers +3, Patriots -16 (.5 Units to win 68.4) -- Incorrect; -$50
Live Dog: - Cardinals +150 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$150
Live Dog: - 49ers +140 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch +500 - Lynch will be the opening-day starter for the Bills and will have the luxury of running
behind a huge offensive line. Running backs make the quickest transition into the NFL, and Lynch is the only rookie who's guaranteed a starting gig. (1 Unit)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Field +700 - James Jones? Jacoby Jones? Who knows, Marques Colston came out of nowhere last year. (1 Unit)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jamaal Anderson +1400 - Unlike Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson will be starting on Day 1. With teams concerned
about John Abraham, Anderson seems like he could be poised for a double digit-sack campaign. (1 Unit)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: Patriots 5/2 - Not great odds, but they'll get the job done. (1 Unit)
Odds to Win Super Bowl: Steelers 22/1 - Getting a great deal here. (.5 Units)
Regular Season Wins: Chiefs Under 7.5 -155 - Larry Johnson will get hurt, the defense will suck and Herm Edwards will lose his mind. (1.5 Units)
Regular Season Wins: Dolphins Under 7 -125 - I've talked about the Dolphins plenty of times already. (1.5 Units)
Regular Season Wins: Steelers Over 9 -105 - The Steelers went 8-8 with a damaged Ben Roethlisberger. No way they win less than 10 this season. (1.5 Units)
Regular Season Wins: Giants Under 8 -165 - No way they get to 8-8 this year. (1.5 Units)
Player Prop: Larry Johnson Under 1,700 Total Rushing Yards - Since Eric Dickerson, no running back who has carried the ball 385 or more times
has finished in the top 10 in rushing. Johnson had 416 carries, the most in the history of the NFL. (2 Units)
Player Prop: Wes Welker Over 675 Total Receiving Yards - Wes Welker has been Tom Brady's new go-to-guy in training camp and preseason. I'm
expecting a big year from him. (2 Units)
More prop picks will be listed here.
Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.
Second-half picks will be listed here.
Back to WalterFootball.com Home
Go to my 2008 NFL Mock Draft
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
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2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
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2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
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2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
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2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
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2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
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2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 35-22 (61.4%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 6-6 (2014-15: 14-19)
Bears: 3-8 (2014-15: 14-17)
Bucs: 6-6 (2014-15: 18-14)
49ers: 9-3 (2014-15: 21-10)
Eagles: 5-7 (2014-15: 16-16)
Lions: 6-5 (2014-15: 19-13)
Falcons: 10-2 (2014-15: 17-15)
Cardinals: 6-6 (2014-15: 14-21)
Giants: 6-4 (2014-15: 14-17)
Packers: 8-2 (2014-15: 20-15)
Panthers: 10-1 (2014-15: 15-22)
Rams: 5-6 (2014-15: 16-15)
Redskins: 4-8 (2014-15: 20-13)
Vikings: 6-6 (2014-15: 20-13)
Saints: 10-2 (2014-15: 13-17)
Seahawks: 9-3 (2014-15: 16-19)
Bills: 7-5 (2014-15: 14-15)
Bengals: 3-8 (2014-15: 13-19)
Colts: 5-6 (2014-15: 14-18)
Broncos: 5-7 (2014-15: 18-13)
Dolphins: 7-4 (2014-15: 18-13)
Browns: 4-7 (2014-15: 16-13)
Jaguars: 5-6 (2014-15: 12-19)
Chargers: 6-6 (2014-15: 17-15)
Jets: 5-5 (2014-15: 17-14)
Ravens: 5-6 (2014-15: 17-15)
Texans: 8-3 (2014-15: 12-20)
Chiefs: 8-4 (2014-15: 18-15)
Patriots: 7-5 (2014-15: 22-14)
Steelers: 7-5 (2014-15: 18-14)
Titans: 7-4 (2014-15: 13-15)
Raiders: 8-4 (2014-15: 14-18)
Divisional: 26-26 (2011-15: 222-225)
2x Game Edge: 12-7 (2011-15: 86-97)
2x Psych Edge: 34-26 (2011-15: 151-133)
2x Vegas Edge: 16-22 (2011-15: 218-223)
2x Trend Edge: 33-23 (2011-15: 139-128)
Double Edge: 14-12 (2011-15: 59-61)
Triple Edge: 3-0 (2011-15: 3-3)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)