Texans (3-6) at Bills (4-5). Line: Bills by 7. Over-Under: 37.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Bills by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Bills by 6.

The Game. Edge: Bills.
*** Eric Moulds is doubtful.

Buffalo really played well defensively against Dallas and I look for that to continue in this game, because this is a must-win situation for the Bills. They'll have to stop Domanick Davis, who has quietly become one of the better running backs in the NFL. Davis has gone over 100 yards in three of the last four games, but doing that will be tough against Buffalo, because the Bills are ranked 8th against the run. David Carr might have to be depended on to move the chains, which doesn't bode well for Houston, because their opponent is 2nd against the pass, suffocating opposing quarterbacks to a 70.2 quarterback rating.

Greg Williams must really focus on running the ball to win (and cover) this game. The Texans are 21st against the run, and even let Rudi Johnson go for almost 200 rushing yards last week. Travis Henry should be able to do the same, if he is given enough carries. Drew Bledsoe has struggled, mainly due to the fact that he has been sacked 26 times this season. However, he'll be in good shape here because the Texans have only registered 8 sacks. Consequently, they are 27th against the pass.

Note: I have changed the pick (Friday at 9:30 PM) on this game because Eric Moulds is doubtful.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Texans are 4-2 ATS in November.
  • Bills are 59-33 at home since 1992.
  • Bills are 2-3 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Bills -6 (open) to Bills -7 (11/9).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Cloudy, 47 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Bills.
Like I stated above, this is a must-win situation for Buffalo because they are 4-5 and they probably can't afford another loss if they want to capture a wild card berth. Houston has a slight chance at the playoffs, but the Texans know that they have no chance.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric Moulds, Buffalo Defense.
  • Sit Em David Carr, Andre Johnson, Houston Defense.

Prediction: Bills by 3. Under.




Redskins (4-5) at Panthers (7-2). Line: Panthers by 6. Over-Under: 36.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Panthers by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Panthers by 7.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
*** Stephen Davis is questionable.

Rock Cartwright had a quality game last week against Seattle. He was able to run for 80 yards on the 13 carries, and could do the same in this matchup because the Panthers are 14th against the run (Seattle is 16th). Unlike the Seahawks (who are coached by an overrated fool), the Panthers will blitz to try and knock out Patrick Ramsey. They have an impressive 22 sacks this season, while the Redskins allow a league high 29. The Panthers can be beat with a deep passing attack, but I don't think Ramsey will have enough time to throw.

Carolina's game plan is very simple; run the ball with Stephen Davis and avoid turnovers. Washington is a measley 23rd against the run, so I don't think the Cats will have problems moving the chains. If this game was played under normal circumstances, I would say that the Panthers would have no problem winning this game. It turns out that they are coming off of a huge emotional win and the Redskins are more much desperate to win. Plus, 6 is too much to lay on a defensive team that doesn't score too many points.


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Sandwich Situation: After a tough win against Tampa Bay, the Panthers have Dallas after this game.
  • Panthers are 3-4 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Panthers are 2-6 ATS (1-8 SU) in November since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -6 (open) to Panthers -6 (11/9) to Panthers -6 (11/10).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 61 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Redskins.
Sure, the Panthers would like to be #1 overall in the NFC, but this game means much more to Washington, who could essentially be eliminated from wild card contention, if they lose this game.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Rock Cartwright, Laveraneus Coles, Stephen Davis, Steve Smith.
  • Sit Em Patrick Ramsey, Jake Delhomme, Muhshin Muhammad.

Prediction: Panthers by 5. Money Pick. Under.




Rams (6-3) at Bears (3-6). Line: Rams by 6. Over-Under: 42.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Rams by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Rams by 5.

The Game. Edge: Rams.
You have to wonder how hard the Rams will play in this game, coming off of a very physical game with the Ravens. It'll be 51 degrees in Chicago, so the Rams might not even show up. St. Louis' offense looked pitiful against Baltimore, but remember, the Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Mike Martz ran the ball with Marshall Faulk 20 times last Sunday, so look for about the same number in this contest. Chicago is 18th against the run, so Faulk could get 100 rushing yards. One of the strangest statistics is that the Bears are 4th against the pass, despite only registering 7 sacks this season. Considering that this game is on grass, I'll look for Chicago to contain the Rams' offense to a reasonable output.

Anthony Thomas could not get it going against Detroit's 13th ranked run defense, but in this game, he'll have the luxury of running against a St. Louis run defense that is 26th in the NFL. If Chicago's defense can pull through and keep them in the game, I think the A-Train will have a great day. However, if the Bears' defense is in a funk, Chris Chandler will not play well, because the Rams get pretty good pressure against opposing quarterbacks.


The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Rams are 7-13 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Rams are 3-11 ATS on grassy fields since 2001.
  • Bears are 6-1 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Rams -6 (open) to Rams -6 (11/10).
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 42 (11/12).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 51 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: None.
Now that St. Louis is tied with Seattle, they are out of desperation mode, so this game doesn't mean that much too them. This is Chicago's last chance to make a move to get a wild card berth, or even a division title, considering how bad Minnesota and Green Bay are playing right now. Don't laugh, but the Bears aren't out of it. If both Minnesota and Green Bay lose (very probable) and the Bears can pull off an upset, they are only 2 and 1 games back of the two teams ahead of them, respectively.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Anthony Thomas.
  • Sit Em Chris Chandler, Marty Booker, David Terrell, Dez White.

Prediction: Rams by 3. Under.




Chiefs (9-0) at Bengals (4-5). Line: Chiefs by 6. Over-Under: 47.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Chiefs by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Chiefs by 6.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
*** Corey Dillon is questionable.

I was ready to make this game my Upset of the Year, before Chad Johnson opened his mouth and guarenteed victory. This might make Kansas City focus on these Bengals, instead of looking ahead to their three divisional games, although I'm not sure if the Chiefs will take Johnson's prognostication seriously. After all, these are the Bengals we are talking about. Look for Priest Holmes to run the ball at least 25 times. Cincinnati is weak against the run, so 25 carries could get Priest near 150 rushing yards. Cincinnati is pretty solid against the pass, holding opposing quarterbacks to a QB rating of 77, but it won't matter if they can't stop the run.

I don't know if Corey Dillon is playing, but if I were Marvin Lewis, I would start Rudi Johnson instead of Dillon. The Bengals don't need Dillon's negativitey in the locker room, now that Johnson has emerged as a quality back. Rudi ran for 182 yards on 41 carries against Houston's 21st ranked run defense. Kansas City is ranked 31st against the run, and they even made James Jackson look good last week. If the Bengals' defense can keep them in the game, Rudi should be primed for a huge day. It is important that the Bengals are able to run as much as possible in this matchup, because the Chiefs have forced 24 sacks and 19 interceptions this season. If Cincy is down early to KayCee, forget about it.


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Triple Look-Ahead Alert: Kansas City has 3 games with divisional opponents coming up after this game.
  • Bengals are 3-2 ATS at home.
  • Line Movement: Chiefs -6 (open) to Chiefs -6 (11/10).
  • Total Movement: 46 (open) to 47 (11/11).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 54 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Bengals.
With the injury to Kyle Boller, the Bengals have a great chance to win the AFC North, so look for their best effort here. Kansas City is attempting to stay undefeated.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson.
  • Sit Em Johnnie Morton, Eddie Kennison, Jon Kitna, Corey Dillon.

Prediction: Chiefs by 4. Money Pick. Under.




Cardinals (3-6) at Browns (3-6). Line: Browns by 6. Over-Under: 38.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Browns by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Browns by 5.

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
Marcel Shipp is the real deal, but he was held up by Pittsburgh's outstanding rush defense. This week, Shipp will look to sail the Cardinals to victory, against Cleveland's 30th ranked run defense, which gives up a pathetic 4.7 yards per carry. This will set up play-action Jeff Blake, and when Blake has that in his arsenal, he is at his finest. The Browns are 5th against the pass, but Trent Green was able to torch them last week. Arizona should put up a good amount of points on this young Cleveland defense.

Cleveland will have William Green this Sunday, but Arizona is very underrated against the run (7th in the NFL), so I don't think it matters much. As for the Browns' arial attack, that won't work either because the Cardinals are also 7th against the pass. Pittsburgh was able to score 28 on the Cardinals due to turnovers and a great punt return by Antwan Randle El. Arizona's defense is the best kept secret in the NFL, and I think they'll shut Cleveland down.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: Cleveland has arch-rival Pittsburgh after this game.
  • Cardinals play their first road game since October 5.
  • Cardinals are 23-68 on the road since 1992.
  • Browns are 28-40 at home since 1992.
  • Browns are 13-15 ATS in home games since 2000.
  • Browns are 2-3 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Browns -7 (open) to Browns -6 (11/9).
  • Total Movement: 38 (open) to 38 (11/9) to 38 (11/10).
  • Weather: Showers, 49 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: None.
This is more of an elimination game for Arizona than it is for Cleveland. The Browns can afford to lose this game, because Kyle Boller is out for the year. Arizona can't afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs, but when do the Cardinals ever think about the playoffs?

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin, Arizona Defense.
  • Sit Em Cleveland Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Cardinals by 7. Money Pick. UPSET SPECIAL. Under.




Ravens (5-4) at Dolphins (5-4). Line: Dolphins by 5. Over-Under: 34.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Dolphins by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Dolphins by 3.

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
*** Kyle Boller is out for 6 weeks.

Baltimore received discouraging news about Kyle Boller, who will be out for the rest of the regular season with torn quadriceps. Anthony Wright will make the start for the Ravens. They did sign Ray Lucas, who is much better than Wright or Chris Redman, but he probably won't play yet because he just joined the team. Jamal Lewis will continue to be the focal point of Baltimore's offense, but there is a problem. Miami has the top run defense in the NFL. They allow an outstanding 3 yards per carry. With no running game going, Wright will have to throw. Even though the Dolphins are 29th against the pass, they hold opposing quarterbacks to a QB rating of 72.3, so there is little hope for Wright. I think most of Miami's points will come off of Wright turnovers.

These two teams are pretty evenly matched. Miami runs first with Ricky Williams, who is not performing as well as he did last year, thanks to his putrid offensive line. Baltimore is 6th against the run, so forget the Dolphins' running game. Brian Griese will start for this Fish, and he'll have to move the chains. As bad as Griese is, he is better than Redman, and he has more talented receivers to throw to.


The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Dolphins are 63-29 at home since 1992.
  • Dolphins are 19-9 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Dolphins -5 (open) to Dolphins -6 (11/11) to Dolphins -6 (11/12) to Dolphins -5 (11/15).
  • Total Movement: 34 (open) to 34 (11/12).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 84 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Dolphins.
Baltimore is on top of their division, but not by much. However, this game means more to Miami because if they lose this game, they'll be looking in from the outside as far as the wildcard berth is concerned.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Todd Heap, Randy McMichael, Miami Defense.
  • Sit Em Both Offenses (excluding the two above).

Prediction: Dolphins by 10. Under.




Giants (4-5) at Eagles (6-3). Line: Eagles by 3. Over-Under: 38.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Eagles by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Eagles by 6.

The Game. Edge: Giants.
*** Jeremey Shockey is out for 6-8 weeks.

Vegas could have set this line higher and still have gotten action on the Eagles, so something is wrong here. This line is a trap, and I'm not falling into it. Public perception is very high on the Eagles right now, because of their incredible win against Brett Favre and the Packers on Monday Night. Keep in mind that Philly won the fumble/interception battle 7-0, and still only won by 3.

Philadelphia has one of the worst run defenses in the league, so I expect Tiki Barber to have another great game against the Eagles. In their previous meeting, Kerry Collins had a pretty efficient day, and I look for the same this Sunday. He'll be without Jeremey Shockey, but Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard are good enough to get open against a banged up Eagles' secondary, while Kerry Collins gets enough time to throw. Collins has only been sacked 16 times this season.

Philly will be able to run on the Giants; just not as well as they did against the Packers on Monday Night. A few weeks ago, when these two teams collided, Donovan McNabb was only 9 of 24. The Giants have always done well defensively against McNabb by putting immense pressure on him, mostly from Michael Strahan. Donovan has played well since that game, but he has faced a couple of defensive cupcakes. The Giants completely dominated that October 19th matchup, and should have won, if it wasn't for a Brian Westbrook punt return.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Eagles have won 4 of last 5, but Giants won 8 in a row before that.
  • Last Meeting: Eagles 14, Giants 10 (at New York -2, 37).
  • Giants are 41-41 on the road since 1993.
  • Eagles are 13-15 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Eagles are 3-3 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 54 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Giants.
Philadelphia can move within half a game behind Dallas at this point, but this game means so much more to the Giants. If they lose this game, they'll have 6 losses, and in a tough wildcard race, a 6-loss team may not make the playoffs.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Giants Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em Philadelphia Offense (excluding Donovan McNabb).

Prediction: Giants by 4. UPSET SPECIAL. Under.




Falcons (2-7) at Saints (4-5). Line: Saints by 8. Over-Under: 44.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Saints by 8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Saints by 7.

The Game. Edge: Saints.
*** Mike Vick is doubtful.

Something to keep in mind here is that Atlanta finally won last week, so they might be satisfied with that win for a while. Last week, Atlanta was able to run all over the New York Giants, but the GMen were looking ahead. New Orleans' run defense is equal to New York's, so Warrick Dunn could have another solid outing, although he will not obtain the 175 yards he gained on the Giants. New Orleans will key in on the run, and Kurt Kittner will have to beat a solid 10th ranked Saints' pass defense. That won't happen.

Atlanta has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and the Saints' offense runs through Deuce McAllister, so the Falcons have no hope of stopping the Saints from moving the ball up and down the field, especially when their awful secondary, which is responsible for them being the worst pass defense in the NFL, has to defend the likes of Joe Horn and Donte' Stallworth.


The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 5-10 ATS.
  • History: Falcons have won 13 of last 17.
  • Last Meeting: Saints 45, Falcons 17 (at Atlanta +3, 42).
  • Falcons are 12-8 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Saints are 35-49 at home since 1993.
  • Saints are 10-18 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Saints -8 (open) to Saints -8 (11/9).
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 44 (11/9).
  • Weather: Dome.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Saints.
Believe it or not, New Orleans still has a shot at the playoffs. If they lose here, they won't have a chance.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Warrick Dunn, New Orleans Offense.
  • Sit Em Kurt Kitnner, T.J. Duckett, Peerless Price.

Prediction: Saints by 24. Under.




Jaguars (2-7) at Titans (7-2). Line: Titans by 9. Over-Under: 45.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Titans by 11.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Titans by 10.

The Game. Edge: Titans.
I hate to sound like a broken record, but if Jacksonville can't run with Fred Taylor, they have no shot at winning. Unfortunately for them, the Titans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. A few weeks ago, when these two teams met, Jacksonville only managed 54 yards rushing. Byron Leftwich will have to beat Tennessee, and he's not ready to do that yet, especially on the road. Leftwich threw three picks when the Titans defeated the Jaguars earlier this season.

Jacksonville has the second best run defense in the league. I don't know how many people recognize that. The reason why the Titans dominate the Jaguars is because Tennessee doesn't depend upon the run. The Jaguars can't stop the pass, so Steve McNair will torch their secondary... again.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • History: Titans have won 8 of last 10.
  • Last Meeting: Titans 30, Jaguars 17 (at Jacksonville +4, 43).
  • Titans are 56-36 at home since 1992.
  • Titans are 3-6 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Double Digit Home Favorites are 4-6 ATS this year.
  • Line Movement: Titans -10 (open) to Titans -10 (11/10) to Titans -9 (11/15).
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 45 (11/9).
  • Weather: Cloudy, 58 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Titans.
The Titans would like to gain a game on Indianapolis in the AFC South.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Steve McNair, Derrick Mason, Tennessee Defense.
  • Sit Em Jacksonville Offense and Defense, Eddie George.

Prediction: Titans by 17. Double Money Pick. Over.




Chargers (2-7) at Broncos (5-4). Line: Broncos by 8. Over-Under: 44.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Broncos by 12.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Broncos by 10.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
*** Jake Plummer will start.

San Diego will like to keep their Flutie magic going, but the truth is, last Sunday's game was the first game they've won in a long time, so they could be satisfied with that. Like I say every week, the Chargers' defense needs to be able to allow LaDainian Tomlinson to run as much as possible. If the San Diego's stop unit does their job, LaDainian Tomlinson will be able to run effectively on Denver's banged up defense. That, of course, will set up Doug Flutie, who will be able to perform his magic against a defense that can be thrown against.

Can the Bolts keep the Broncos' offense in check? No. Clinton Portis should have another oustanding performance against San Diego. This will set up playactions and bootlegs for Jake Plummer, who has thrived in Mike Shanahan's system thus far. The Chargers have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, so it could be 30 points or more for Denver.


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Broncos have won 10 of last 13.
  • History: Home Team has won 4 of the last 5.
  • Last Meeting: Broncos 37, Chargers 13 (at San Diego +3, 43).
  • Chargers are 13-30 in November since 1993.
  • Broncos are 62-22 at home since 1993.
  • Broncos are 16-12 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Broncos are 30-11 in November since 1993.
  • Broncos are 1-6 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Broncos -8 (open) to Broncos -8 (11/10) to Broncos -8 (11/13).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 53 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Broncos.
If Denver loses, it could set them back as far as the wildcard is concerned.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em LaDainian Tomlinson, Denver Offense.
  • Sit Em Both Defenses.

Prediction: Broncos by 13. Over.




Jets (3-6) at Colts (7-2). Line: Colts by 6. Over-Under: 43.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Colts by 10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Colts by 8.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
*** Marvin Harrison is doubtful.

Jacksonville exposed Indianapolis' run defense for what it really is, so Curtis Martin could get a lot of carries. The problem is, Martin is not performing well. Against an equally pourous Oakland run defense, Martin only managed about 3 yards per carry. Chad Pennington will have to beat Indy with his percision passing, but the Colts are pretty solid against the pass. They have generated an adequare 19 sacks this season, and it'll be interesting if they can get through to Pennington, because the Jets' offensive line has only permitted 11 sacks.

I don't know if Marvin Harrison will play or not, but I do know that it won't affect Indianapolis' game plan. The Colts will run the ball with Edgerrin James as much as possible, because New York can not stop the run. Last weekend, the trio of Fargas, Wheatley and Crockett (sounds like a law firm) ran very well against the Jets. Edgerrin James is a much better back than all three of those guys, so look for over 100 from the Edge. The Jets happen to be third against the pass, thanks to 27 registered sacks. Indy's offensive line has only allowed 8 sacks this season, so it'll be interesting to see what happens. My money is on Peyton's guys, because the Jets failed to sack Rick Mirer last week, even though the Raiders have allowed 21 this year. I look for tons of points and major revenge from Manning and company.


The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 6-12 ATS in 2003. Jets won in overtime.
  • Revenge Situation: New York defeated Indianapolis in the playoffs last year.
  • Jets are 27-14 in November since 1993.
  • Colts are 7-13 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Colts -6 (open) to Colts -6 (11/15).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Dome.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Jets.
If the Jets lose this game, they are out of the playoff picture, unless some sort of miracle occurrs. If Indianapolis loses this game, they most likely drop to second place in their divsion.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Santana Moss, Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Reggie Wayne, Marcus Pollard.
  • Sit Em Marvin Harrison (questionable), Jets Defense.

Prediction: Colts by 7. Money Pick. Over.




Lions (3-6) at Seahawks (6-3). Line: Seahawks by 10. Over-Under: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Seahawks by 9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Seahawks by 8.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Whether it was Mike Holmgren or Ray Rhodes who decided not to blitz against Patrick Ramsey is an idiot. In fact, both of them are idiots. Also, this spread is too high. Seattle hasn't won a game by more than 10 since week 2 (at Arizona). Detroit's running game is a non-factor, because they can't run the ball, and Seattle is decent against the run. In fact, Detroit had 17 rushing yards against the Bears last Sunday. That's pathetic. Its no wonder Joey Harrington is having trouble this season. Actually, Harrington played extremely well last weekend, albeit it was against the lowly Bears. Seattle's pass defense is very mediocre, although they hold passers to a quarterback rating of 73.4. One thing going for the Lions is that they've allowed a league low 6 sacks. I really don't understand that statistic.

Shaun Alexander should receive lots of carries in this game, but Detroit is pretty decent against the run, allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. In fact, they shut down Anthony Thomas last week. If they can do the same thing to Alexander, they'll be in good shape. Detroit won't win the game, but they'll keep it close because they will be able to put pressure on Matt Hasselbeck, who has been sacked 26 times this season.


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Double Look-Ahead Alert: Detroit has games against 2 divisional rivals after this game.
  • Lions haven't won a road game in 3 years (5-13 ATS during that stretch).
  • Seahawks are 49-44 at home since 1992.
  • Double Digit Home Favorites are 4-6 ATS this year.
  • Line Movement: Seahawks -9 (open) to Seahawks -10 (11/9) to Seahawks -10 (11/13).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Rain, 51 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Seahawks.
If Detroit wins this game, they aren't out of it, because the Vikings could only be two ahead if things work out in the Lions' favor. Seattle is tied for the NFC West lead, so this home game is important to them.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Matt Hasselbeck, Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson.
  • Sit Em Detroit Offense.

Prediction: Seahawks by 7. Under.




Packers (4-5) at Buccaneers (4-5). Line: Buccaneers by 4. Over-Under: 40.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Buccaneers by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Buccaneers by 5.

The Game. Edge: None.
This is one of the best games of the week. Not only is it The Bay of Pigs, this is a win-or-die situation for both teams. Like I state every single week, Tampa can be beaten with a power running game with great blocking. Ahman Green is the back to do it. Tampa Bay's defense holds opposing passers to a 62.5 QB rating, but they allowed Jake Delhomme to look like the second-coming of John Elway last week. Brett Favre always plays poorly at The New Sombraro, but he won in the Metro Dome, and then lost in Lambeau, so I don't know what to make of him anymore.

I expect Michael Pittman to have a huge day, because Green Bay is awful against the run. They rank 24th against it. Although they have two stud corners, the Packers are 26th against the pass, mainly because they've recorded only 15 sacks this year. Brad Johnson's has only been sacked 13 times, so look for Tampa's offense to move down the field as well as Green Bay.


The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • History: Home Team has won the last 10.
  • Buccaneers are 53-31 at home since 1993.
  • Buccaneers are 4-3 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 40 (11/12).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 85 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: Buccaneers.
I said this was a must win for both teams, but the Packers can actually afford to lose this game if Minnesota does. If the Bucs lose, they are basically out of the playoff picture for good.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Ahman Green, Michael Pittman, Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Tampa Bay Defense.
  • Sit Em Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Javon Walker, Robert Ferguson, Bubba Franks.

Prediction: Buccaneers by 7. Money Pick. Under.




Vikings (6-3) at Raiders (2-7). Line: Vikings by 4. Over-Under: 45.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Vikings by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Vikings by 3.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
*** Rick Mirer will start.

West Coast trips are always hard, and it'll be especially hard for Minnesota to win this game because Oakland is trying all of a sudden. The Vikings run the ball well, and the Raiders are 27th against it, so Minny will move the chains. Oakland happens to be 12th against the pass, but I think that is a product of teams being so far ahead of them that they don't need to throw. The Raiders have only 11 sacks this season, while Daunte Culpepper is protected by a mammoth offensive line.

If Oakland's defense can somehow contain the Vikes, they'll be able to move the chains. Minnesota has the worst run defense in the NFL. The Raiders just need to be patient and run the ball on every down like they did last week. With a good running game going, the Vikings will have trouble stopping Rick Mirer (that sounds very strange to say). Mirer was a perfect game manager last week, and will continue to be as long as the Raiders can run the ball. If they can't, Mirer will throw at least 4 interceptions.

Note: After changing my mind at least ten times this week, I have decided to take the points with the Raiders, because I feel this will be a close game. Pick changed Friday 9:30 PM.


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: Oakland has 9-0 rival Kansas City after this game.
  • Raiders are 14-13 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Raiders are 5-1 ATS in November home games since 2000.
  • Raiders are 0-8 ATS this year.
  • Line Movement: Vikings -4 (open) to Vikings -4 (11/9).
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 44 (11/9) to 45 (11/10).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 62 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: None.
Minnesota is well in command of the NFC North.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Daunte Culpepper, Michael Bennett, Randy Moss.
  • Sit Em Rick Mirer, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Oakland Defense.

Prediction: Vikings by 3. Under.




Cowboys (7-2) at Patriots (7-2). Line: Patriots by 4. Over-Under: 35.
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): Patriots by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): Patriots by 6.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
This is the best coaching matchup that the NFL has seen in a long time. Two defensive masterminds collide as the apprentice (Bill Belichick), challenges the master (Bill Parcells). Dallas has the most carries in the NFL, so you know they are going to run a lot, but they won't get anywhere because the Patriots are 7th against the run, shutting down backs like Clinton Portis. Compared to Portis, Troy Hambrick is nothing. The Patriots are also pretty good against the pass; posting 21 sacks, 13 interceptions and holding opposing quarterbacks to an incredible rating of 59.2. Quincy Carter has played well against poor and mediocre secondaries, but this will be his ultimate test, and I think he's doomed to fail. Don't be surprised if the Cowboys don't score any points.

Dallas is even better than the Patriots at defending the run, ranking 4th in that catagory. However, the Pats don't run the ball well anyway, and they don't depend on it to win. Tom Brady is the reason for New England's success, but even he will have trouble against Dallas' defense. They are ranked first against the pass, holding opposing passers to a 49.1% completion and a 64.2 quarterback rating. Points will be at a premium in this contest.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Patriots are 52-32 at home since 1993.
  • Patriots are 17-11 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Patriots -3 (open) to Patriots -4 (11/9).
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 35 (11/9) to 35 (11/12).
  • Weather: Clear, 38 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: None.
Neither team is in a must-win situation.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em Both Offenses.

Prediction: Patriots by 6. Under.




Steelers (3-6) at 49ers (4-5). Line: 49ers by 4. Over-Under: 41. MONDAY!

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 10 Games): 49ers by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 10 Games): 49ers by 4.

The Game. Edge: 49ers.
*** Tim Rattay will start.

It looks as though the Steelers are attempting to run the ball more often, but it hasn't been working all too well. The 49ers are 11th against the run, allowing a respectable 3.9 yards per carry. Tommy Maddox will have to throw to move the chains, which just isn't good because San Francisco has 27 sacks this season, while the Steelers have given up 25. The 49ers' defense will have no problem breaking through the worst offensive line in football.

San Fran loves to run the football, and they do it pretty well, but forget about it in this game. The Steelers are 3rd against the run. Tim Rattay is starting, and I think that Rattay is better than Jeff Garcia. Rattay is more suited for Dennis Erickson's offense, which is more vertical than the West Coast Offense that they used to run with Steve Mariucci. Rattay will get the ball downfield to Terrell Owens a couple of times. Pittsburgh has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, so I don't think scoring will be much of a problem for the 49ers.


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: Pittsburgh has arch-rival Cleveland after this game.
  • Steelers are 43-41 on the road since 1993.
  • Steelers are 26-17 in November since 1993.
  • 49ers are 64-22 at home since 1993.
  • 49ers are 3-4 ATS in home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 56 degrees.

Playoff Implications. Edge: 49ers.
Pittsburgh can actually afford to lose because their division leader is 5-5, and they beat them. The 49ers can't afford to lose.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Tim Rattay, Terrell Owens, San Francisco Defense.
  • Sit Em Pittsburgh Offense and Defense.

Prediction: 49ers by 17. Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record


Cowboys: 4-4
Eagles: 4-5
Giants: 6-3
Redskins: 6-2

Bears: 5-3
Lions: 6-2
Packers: 4-5
Vikings: 7-2

Buccaneers: 5-4
Falcons: 6-3
Panthers: 6-3
Saints: 5-4

49ers: 4-4
Cardinals: 5-4
Rams: 3-5
Seahawks: 4-5

Bills: 1-7
Dolphins: 4-5
Jets: 5-2
Patriots: 5-4

Bengals: 3-6
Browns: 3-6
Ravens: 4-5
Steelers: 4-5

Colts: 5-4
Jaguars: 6-3
Texans: 5-4
Titans: 5-4

Broncos: 6-3
Chargers: 3-6
Chiefs: 2-7
Raiders: 2-6

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1 5 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 3-3 (+$480)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 1-1 (+$60)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2014): 8-7 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2014): -$220

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$1,070)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 96-90-6, 51.6% (+$245)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 35-29, 54.7% (+$1,280)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 7-10-1, 41.2% (-$1,200)
2014 Season Over-Under: 97-76-2, 56.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,030

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
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2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
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2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
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2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

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2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,110-1,934-116, 52.2% (+$12,660)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 679-612-31 (52.6%)
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Career Over-Under: 1,638-1,613-48 (50.4%)
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Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 4-7
Bears: 5-6
Bucs: 8-3
49ers: 4-6
Eagles: 7-4
Lions: 3-7
Falcons: 6-5
Cardinals: 6-5
Giants: 3-8
Packers: 8-2
Panthers: 5-6
Rams: 5-6
Redskins: 8-3
Vikings: 9-2
Saints: 4-6
Seahawks: 5-6
Bills: 4-7
Bengals: 4-8
Colts: 6-5
Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 7-3
Browns: 6-3
Jaguars: 6-5
Chargers: 3-8
Jets: 6-5
Ravens: 4-6
Texans: 5-6
Chiefs: 7-3
Patriots: 5-6
Steelers: 6-5
Titans: 6-3
Raiders: 3-8
Divisional: 24-24* (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 11-14 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 16-19 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-30 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 26-12* (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 8-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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