NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2016



NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 0-0 ($0)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2016): 0-0 ($0)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Washington Redskins (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 3.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

I'll begin with a small play in the preseason. I'm only a little confident in the Redskins, as Jay Gruden is 6-2 in exhibition contests. Dan Quinn is 2-2 and won Week 1 last year, so I have some concern, but I feel as though Washington is the right side, especially with the points.

By the way, I'll be running a live blog tonight during the game, so come check that out.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Jay Gruden is 6-2 in preseason games.
  • Jay Gruden is 2-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Dan Quinn is 2-2 in preseason games.
  • Dan Quinn is 1-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Falcons 17
    Redskins +3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110








    Detroit Lions (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
    Line: Steelers by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I like this pick a lot more. Mike Tomlin used to be automatic in the preseason... and then Landry Jones happened. Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and being able to get more than a field goal going against him seems like a steal. As for the other team, Jim Caldwell's overall preseason record is not good (8-12), but he's 6-2 with the Lions thus far.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Caldwell is 8-12 in preseason games (6-2 with Lions).
  • Jim Caldwell is 2-3 in Preseason Week 1 games (2-0 with Lions).
  • Mike Tomlin is 21-17 in preseason games (2-11 last 3 years).
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-7 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 19, Steelers 13
    Lions +3.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300







    Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
    Line: Bengals by 3.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Death, taxes and Mike Zimmer winning in the preseason. Zimmer is 8-1 in exhibition contests, so I love the idea of getting a field goal with him. Marvin Lewis is 6-8 in the first week of the preseason, so I don't see the Bengals winning this by more than three points, especially without a mobile quarterback in reserve (they had Josh Johnson last year). I'm actually considering this to be my August NFL Pick of the Month, so check back later. For now, I'm locking in three units on the Vikings.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Mike Zimmer is 8-1 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 3-0 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Marvin Lewis is 28-25 in preseason games.
  • Marvin Lewis is 6-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Bengals 13
    Vikings +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300







    Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
    Line: Chiefs by 2.5.

    Saturday, 4:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I'd be more confident in this pick if the Seahawks still had Tarvaris Jackson, but I still like them for two units. Pete Carroll is 4-2 in Week 1 exhibition contests, and Trevone Boykin might be the next great preseason quarterback, following the footsteps of Tyrod Taylor and Pat White. The Chiefs, meanwhile, lost Chase Daniel, and Andy Reid's 9-9 Week 1 record isn't too impressive.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Pete Carroll is 15-9 in preseason games.
  • Pete Carroll is 4-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Andy Reid is 32-36 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 9-9 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Chiefs 17
    Seahawks +2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







    Houston Texans (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)
    Line: 49ers by 3.

    Sunday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    This is the one game where I'll be taking a favorite this week. There are two reasons why I like the 49ers. First, Chip Kelly may want to win his first preseason home game to validate his crappy coaching, especially after being fired eight months ago. Second, Colin Kaepernick could dominate this game, as his weakness (inability to read defenses) won't be exposed in exhibition contests. I'm not a fan of laying points in the preseason, so I'll keep this at one unit.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Bill O'Brien is 4-4 in preseason games.
  • Bill O'Brien is 1-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.
  • Chip Kelly is 7-5 in preseason games.
  • Chip Kelly is 1-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.


    Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Texans 16
    49ers -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110





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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 5-5 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 3-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 8-2 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 4-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 4-6 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 7-3 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 3-7 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 7-3 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 4-6 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 4-6 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 3-6 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 3-7 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 3-6 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 4-5 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-8 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 2-8 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 6-4 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 4-5 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 4-6 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 3-7 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 4-6 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 5-5 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 2-8 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-8 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 16-21 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 9-13 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 27-25 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-11 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-20 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 13-10 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-2 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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