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NFL Weekly Predictions
Preseason Week 4



Note: Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers. Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Records of respective coaches are displayed under "The Trends."



New York Giants (1-2) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Line: Patriots by 3.5.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: N/A.
Injuries: N/A

Looking at the preseason records of Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick, it may seem like they're even, but the latter is actually 6-9 the past four years. The Giants are coming off a frustrating loss to the Jets, so I'll take them as a 3.5-point dog.

By the way, I urge you to check out my WNBA and CFL picks. I'm probably jinxing myself by writing this, but I've been on fire in the WNBA.

The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Tom Coughlin is 9-6 in the preseason.
  • Bill Belichick is 19-13 in the preseason (6-9 last four years).


    Prediction: Giants 16, Patriots 13
    Giants +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Patriots 27, Giants 20.



    New York Jets (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)
    Line: Eagles by 3.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    The Eagles, 3-point favorites in the preseason? I guess most people haven't gotten the memo that Andy Reid doesn't care about exhibition games.

    Thursday Update: I've been deciding between Jacksonville and Dallas as my Pick of the Month all week. But then it hit me. Andy Reid's scumball son, Brittany, was arrested yet again this week and was charged with being an idiot yesterday. I don't think there's any way Reid is prepared for this meaningless game. None of the starters are even playing one series. The Jets, on the other hand, have a quarterback controversy on their hands. They may be more inclined to win this contest.

    Oh, and the Eagles have yet to beat the Jets by more than three in the preseason this decade (they play each other Week 4 every year.)

    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Eric Mangini is 4-3 in the preseason.
  • Andy Reid is 13-22 in the preseason.
  • Andy Reid is 2-6 in Preseason Week 4.


    Prediction: Jets 24, Eagles 10
    Jets +3 (6 Units - NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Jets 13, Eagles 11.



    Washington Redskins (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
    Line: Jaguars by 3.5.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Love the Jaguars in this spot. Jack Del Rio will have the team focused after its starting offense failed to score a single point against the Packers. Meanwhile, the Redskins looked impressive against the Ravens. The thinking here is that Joe Gibbs will be content enough not to care much about this contest.

    Note: I'll be making either Jacksonville or Dallas my Pick of the Month. I love both teams to cover, but I still have to decide which one I like more.

    The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Joe Gibbs is 6-9 in the preseason.
  • Jack Del Rio is 13-6 in the preseason.
  • Jack Del Rio is 3-1 in Preseason Week 4.


    Prediction: Jaguars 27, Redskins 10
    Jaguars -3.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$400
    Jaguars 31, Redskins 14.



    Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
    Line: Vikings by 1.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Wade Phillips loves winning in the preseason and his team is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Texans.

    Note: I'll be making either Jacksonville or Dallas my Pick of the Month. I love both teams to cover, but I still have to decide which one I like more.

    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Wade Phillips is 10-5 in the preseason.
  • Wade Phillips is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4.
  • Brad Childress is 3-3 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Cowboys 20, Vikings 10
    Cowboys +1.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Vikings 23, Cowboys 14.



    Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)
    Line: Titans by 7.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    I don't know who the Titans are to be favored by seven in the preseason. Jeff Fisher is a very mediocre 23-20 in exhibition games. Mike McCarthy is only 3-4, but he's 2-1 this season. Value bet.

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Mike McCarthy is 3-4 in the preseason.
  • Jeff Fisher is 23-20 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Titans 23, Packers 20
    Packers +7 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Titans 30, Packers 14.



    Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    If the Panthers were playing a coach with a poor track record, I would have considered this as my Pick of the Month. Still, I like the Black Cats after their two humiliating losses to New England and Philadelphia.

    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 3-1 in the preseason.
  • John Fox is 16-7 in the preseason.
  • John Fox is 4-1 in Preseason Week 4.


    Prediction: Panthers 16, Steelers 9
    Panthers -3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Steelers 19, Panthers 3.



    Miami Dolphins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)
    Line: Dolphins by 1.5

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    It's still early, but Cam Cameron seems to care about preseason games. We know Sean Payton doesn't.

    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Cam Cameron is 2-1 in the preseason.
  • Sean Payton is 3-5 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Dolphins 23, Saints 10
    Dolphins -1.5 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Saints 7, Dolphins 0.



    Arizona Cardinals (0-3) at Denver Broncos (1-2)
    Line: Broncos by 4.

    Thursday, 9:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    I was hoping Arizona would win last week so I could make this my Pick of the Month. Alas, they didn't, which means they could be focused for Mike Shanahan, who's probably cracking the whip as you read this, given that his team lost two consecutive exhibition games. I still like Denver but not nearly as much.

    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Ken Whisenhunt is 0-3 in the preseason.
  • Mike Shanahan is 38-17 in the preseason.
  • Mike Shanahan is 8-2 in Preseason Week 4.


    Prediction: Broncos 31, Cardinals 17
    Broncos -4 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
    Broncos 21, Cardinals 3.



    Baltimore Ravens (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-1)
    Line: Ravens by 3.5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Can't believe Brian Billick lost two games in a row. He's probably hiding in a dumpster right now. There's no way Baltimore loses three straight. However, I don't have enough data on Bobby Petrino to make this a strong bet.

    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Brian Billick is 20-14 in the preseason.
  • Brian Billick is 6-2 in Preseason Week 4.
  • Bobby Petrino is 2-1 in the preseason.


    Prediction: Ravens 16, Falcons 10
    Ravens -3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Falcons 13, Ravens 10.



    Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-3)
    Line: Bengals by 5.

    Friday, 7:30 ET (NFLN)

    The Game. Edge: N/A.
    Injuries: N/A

    Just using each coach's record for Week 4. I don't think the Bengals want to go into the regular season winless.

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Tony Dungy is 9-15 in the preseason.
  • Tony Dungy is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4.
  • Marvin Lewis is 9-10 in the preseason.
  • Marvin Lewis is 3-1 in Preseason Week 4.


    Prediction: Bengals 24, Colts 10
    Bengals -5 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
    Bengals 14, Colts 6.


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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 3-5
    Bears: 3-5
    Bucs: 5-2
    49ers: 3-3
    Eagles: 4-3
    Lions: 2-5
    Falcons: 3-5
    Cardinals: 3-4
    Giants: 2-5
    Packers: 5-2
    Panthers: 2-6
    Rams: 3-4
    Redskins: 5-3
    Vikings: 6-2
    Saints: 3-3
    Seahawks: 3-4
    Bills: 3-5
    Bengals: 2-6
    Colts: 4-4
    Broncos: 4-3
    Dolphins: 5-1
    Browns: 3-2
    Jaguars: 3-5
    Chargers: 2-6
    Jets: 4-4
    Ravens: 2-5
    Texans: 5-3
    Chiefs: 4-2
    Patriots: 4-4
    Steelers: 3-5
    Titans: 4-3
    Raiders: 3-4
    Divisional: 13-18 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 7-9 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 7-12 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 18-16 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 13-8 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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