Raiders (0-0) at Patriots (0-0). Line: Patriots by 7. Over-Under: 50.
Thursday, 9:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Patriots by 9.


The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: Raiders: OUT: WR Doug Gabriel. QUESTIONABLE: WR Jerry Porter. Patriots: OUT: ILB Tedy Bruschi, KR Bethel Johnson.

For the second consecutive season, NFL schedule makers have done a remarkable job placing a highly anticipated contest on Kickoff Thursday. Football fans across America will have their eyes glued to the TV, as a brand new, exciting offense challenges the defending Super Bowl champions.

Kerry Collins vs. Bill Belichick's defense. Hmmm. The sage in the gray Patriots hoodies gets five months to game plan against Collins, Randy Moss and the Raiders offense. Oakland acquired Lamont Jordan this off-season, but any attempt at running the ball will be negated by Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and New England's stellar defense. The lack of a potent rushing attack will place Collins in many long-yardage situations, allowing Rodney Harrison, Eugene Wilson and the Patriots secondary to pick off a few passes. Covering Moss is a problem for anyone, but New England has three stellar cornerbacks: Tyrone Poole, Asante Samuel and Randall Gay. Moss will make a few spectacular catches, but will he have an Earth-shattering performance against the best defense in pro football? Not a chance.

As long as Raiders defensive linemen Ted Washington, Derrick Burgess and Tyler Brayton are healthy, Oakland should be able to stop the run all season. That goes for their season opener against New England. However, the Raiders secondary beyond Charles Woodson is young and inexperienced. Corners Nnamdi Asomugha, Stanford Routt and Fabian Washington will not be prepared to cover the Patriots wide receivers. Tom Brady will easily confuse the young cornerbacks, allowing him to hit his receivers throughout the entire evening.

I'm not thrilled about a 7-point spread, but New England should be able to cover it.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Tom Brady is 57-14 as a starter (47-23 ATS).
  • Patriots are 27-12 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 50 (open) to 49 to 50 to 50.
  • Weather: Clear, 70 degrees; wind 7 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tom Brady, Deion Branch, David Givens, Patriots Defense.
  • Sit Em: Lamont Jordan, Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry, Doug Gabriel, Raiders Defense.

Prediction: Patriots by 17. (Patriots -7). Under.




Bears (0-0) at Redskins (0-0). Line: Redskins by 6. Over-Under: 33.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Redskins by 4.


The Game. Edge: Bears.
Injuries: Bears: OUT: QB Rex Grossman. QUESTIONABLE: RB Cedric Benson, CB Jerry Azumah. Redskins: QUESTIONABLE: S Matt Bowen.

The line on this game opened at 4, but quickly rose to 6 in the wake of Rex Grossman's season-ending injury. I must remind you that Grossman only had six career starts; rookie Kyle Orton, who replaces Grossman, isn't that much more inexperienced.

Washington had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2004. However, they lost middle linebacker Antonio Pierce and cornerback Fred Smoot to free agency. They will not be stellar against the run like they were last year, and their pass defense will suffer until rookie corner Carlos Rogers gains some experience. The Redskins will place eight men in the box, coaxing the rookie signal caller to beat them. Orton has looked impressive this preseason, and with the support of an improved offensive line and running back Thomas Jones, Orton should be able to connect on a few downfield passes with Muhsin Muhammad and fellow rookie Mark Bradley. Once Orton establishes that he can move the ball aerially, running lanes should open up for Jones, who could rack up 100 yards Sunday.

If the Redskins had an offense that was worthy enough to complement their defense, the team would have qualified for the playoffs in 2004. Patrick Ramsey is still a huge question mark, and I doubt Santana Moss' ability to consistently get open against cornerbacks Charles Tillman or Jerry Azumah. Chicago's defense with Brian Urlacher in the lineup was stout against the run in 2004, and that should be the case this season. Ramsey will be placed in many third-and-long situations, meaning he will probably throw a few interceptions.

How can the Redskins be a 6-point favorite, when they might not even score seven points against one of the NFL's top-five defenses?


The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Redskins are 2-6 ATS in September home games since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Redskins -6 (open) to Redskins -6 to Redskins -6.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Sunny, 83 degrees; wind 6 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Muhsin Muhammad, Bears Defense.
  • Sit Em: Redskins Offense.

Prediction: Bears by 6. (Bears +6). Money Pick. Under.




Bengals (0-0) at Browns (0-0). Line: Bengals by 3. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Bengals by 4.


The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Injuries: Bengals: OUT: DE Duane Clemons, LB Nate Webster. QUESTIONABLE: WR Kelley Washington. Browns: OUT: TE Kellen Winslow Jr. QUESTIONABLE: RB Lee Suggs, CB Gary Baxter.

The Romeo Crennel era officially begins Sunday. If the Browns' first game is anything like Notre Dame's whipping of Pittsburgh under Charlie Weis, Browns fans will have something to cheer about for the first time since the team qualified for the playoffs in 2002.

Cincinnati had trouble scoring during the initial portion of the 2004 season, and they were consequently 1-4 after Week 6. However, the Bengals finished the season at a 6-3 clip, averaging 27.9 points in their final nine games. Carson Palmer spent his rookie year maturing, and he is ready to blossom into one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. Cleveland will have trouble containing Palmer, Rudi Johnson and Chad Johnson, given its personnel on defense. Crennel will turn things around in Cleveland, but that will take more than six months. The Bengals should be able to score on nearly possession, despite struggling in the preseason.

The Bengals defense will determine how far they go this season. There is still some question as to whether or not they can pressure the quarterback and stop the run. The Browns will have some success on the ground early in this contest, but they will eventually have to match Cincinnati's offense touchdown for touchdown. Trent Dilfer is the master of managing games, but if he is in a shootout, he will probably lose.

Coaches who are running their first game generally have trouble winning. Mike Mularkey and Lovie Smith both lost their season openers last year, while Jim Mora barely survived the woeful 49ers.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • History: Browns have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 44 to 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 82 degrees; wind 10 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Bengals Offense.
  • Sit Em: Trent Dilfer, Browns Receivers, Browns Defense.

Prediction: Bengals by 10. (Bengals -3). Over.




Broncos (0-0) at Dolphins (0-0). Line: Broncos by 5. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Broncos by 5.


The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Broncos: QUESTIONABLE: CB Champ Bailey, CB Lenny Walls, S John Lynch. Dolphins: OUT: RB Ricky Williams, OT Wade Smith, CB Will Poole. QUESTIONABLE: DT Larry Chester, LB Zach Thomas.

Miami shouldn't be able to hang with Denver. The Broncos are a playoff-caliber team, while the Dolphins could own the first pick of the 2006 draft. This should be a blowout, right?

Denver's offense is predicated on running the ball. If they are able to establish the run, Jake Plummer is able to play-action bootleg, and connect downfield with Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie and Jeb Putzier. However, the Broncos offense falls apart if they cannot run the ball. Mike Anderson will have trouble finding running lanes against Miami, a team that still has a solid defense. Plummer will operate in many long-yardage situations, which means a behind-the-back, left-handed hook pass could occur during the course of this contest.

With Ricky Williams out of the lineup, this is Ronnie Brown's chance to validate the No. 2 pick the Dolphins used on him. Cleveland, I mean, Denver's defensive line, comprised of four former Browns defensive linemen, will not be able to contain Brown without having their safeties cheat up to the line of scrimmage. The Broncos will not hesitate to do that, given the woeful Gus Frerotte is the Dolphins' signal caller.

Talent-wise, Miami could pull an upset in a defensive struggle. Trend-wise, Miami will pull an upset. Denver has a very important game against San Diego in Week 2. They may look ahead past the Dolphins. Remember, Miami suffered a shocking loss to Houston in its home opener in 2003, because they were looking ahead to their games against the Jets and Bills. Now, Miami is on the other side of the fence.


The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: BRONCOS play the Chargers next week.
  • Dolphins are 26-11 in September since 1994.
  • Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in September home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Broncos -4 to Broncos -5 to Broncos -5.
  • Total Movement: 38 (open) to 38 to 38 to 38.
  • Weather: Scattered thunderstorms, 91 degrees; wind 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Ronnie Brown, Randy McMichael, Dolphins Defense.
  • Sit Em: Jake Plummer, Ashley Lelie.

Prediction: Dolphins by 3. (Dolphins +5). Money Pick. Upset Special. Under.




Texans (0-0) at Bills (0-0). Line: Bills by 5. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Bills by 4.


The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: Texans: QUESTIONABLE: RB Domanick Davis*, G Zach Wiegert, OLB Jason Babin, CB Donta Robinson.

This is the first of a few point spreads that just don't make sense, which is common in Week 1 games. Buffalo is a 5-point favorite, despite starting a rookie quarterback against an up-and-coming Houston squad? The line should be three.

Buffalo had one of the best run defenses in the NFL last year. However, they lost run stuffer Pat Williams to the Vikings, meaning they will be softer against the run this season. Domanick Davis, who finished the 2004 campaign on a torrid pace, should be able to accumulate more than 100 rushing yards, setting up play-action opportunities for David Carr. The Bills still have a solid defense against aerial attacks, so don't expect Houston to score more than 20 points.

The question becomes: Can Buffalo score more than 20 to win this game? They will be able to run the ball with Willis McGahee, but J.P. Losman will not fare well in his first start, given his mediocre performance in the preseason. Remember, Troy Aikman, Peyton Manning and most recently, Carson Palmer struggled in their first career start.


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Bills are 2-9 ATS in season openers the previous 11 years.
  • Line Movement: Bills -4 (open) to Bills -5.
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 38 to 38 to 37.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 79 degrees; wind 10 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Domanick Davis, Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Jabar Gaffney, J.P. Losman, Lee Evans, Josh Reed.

Prediction: Bills by 3. (Texans +5). Under.




Saints (0-0) at Panthers (0-0). Line: Panthers by 7. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Panthers by 7.


The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Saints: OUT: DT Brian Young. QUESTIONABLE: G Jermaine Mayberry, LB James Allen. Panthers: QUESTIONABLE: OT Todd Fordham, DE Julius Peppers*.

I went against New Orleans in its preseason finale against the Oakland Raiders, because there was no way they could concentrate on the game, given the situation with Hurricane Katrina. They should be ready to play football now, 10 days after the Raiders game. Meanwhile, this is a huge revenge situation for the Panthers, who were knocked out of the playoff hunt by the Saints in Week 17 of 2004.

Carolina still has one of the elite defenses in the NFL. They should be able to limit Deuce McAllister to minimal yardage, preventing Aaron Brooks from running play-action. An interesting match-up in this contest is Julius Peppers vs. offensive tackle Jammal Brown. Peppers should have the upper hand against a rookie who will learn a few things from this game.

The Saints struggle to stop the run, meaning John Fox will call lots of plays for Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster and Nick Goings. Jake Delhomme will take advantage of New Orleans' inability to stop opposing rushers by throwing downfield to Steve Smith, Rod Gardner and Keary Colbert. The Saints need to put pressure on Delhomme, which will be a problem, given that their pass rush is nearly non-existant.

With all signs pointing to Carolina, you have to take the points with New Orleans. The Saints have an uncanny ability to play well when expected to lose, and to play poorly when expected to win. New Orleans actually plays better on the road. They may not win this contest, but they will keep it close.


The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • History: Panthers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
  • History: Six of the eight previous meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current NFL coaches are 41-18 ATS as divisional underdogs of seven or more since 2002; Jim Haslett 4-0 ATS.
  • Panthers are 7-3 ATS in September since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -5 (open) to Panthers -7.
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 87 degrees; wind 7 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Stephen Davis, Panthers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Deuce McAllister, Saints Defense.

Prediction: Panthers by 4. (Saints +7). Money Pick. Under.




Jets (0-0) at Chiefs (0-0). Line: Chiefs by 3. Over-Under: 47.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Chiefs by 3.


The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
Injuries: Jets: QUESTIONABLE: DE John Abraham, DT Dewayne Robertson. Chiefs: OUT: OT John Welbourn, LB Shawn Barber, CB Eric Warfield. QUESTIONABLE: KR/PR Dante Hall. PROBABLE: QB Trent Green*.

Injured quarterbacks galore. Chad Pennington is still not 100 percent after injuring his shoulder last year, while Trent Green had a stent placed in his artery on Aug. 31. Both signal callers will start, however, meaning this contest between playoff contenders will not be ruined.

Kansas City made a number of significant additions to its defense this offseason, meaning they will no longer have the worst defense in the NFL. In fact, they could very well be above average. The Chiefs shut down Shaun Alexander in their third exhibition game, restricting the All-Pro runner to 23 yards on 12 carries. The 32-year-old Curtis Martin will struggle to find running lanes, disallowing Pennington to utilize play-action. Patrick Surtain vs. Laveranues Coles will be a fun matchup to watch. The corner has a slight edge.

The Chiefs may actually have a better defense than the Jets do. New York has nothing at defensive tackle if Dewayne Robertson misses the game, and their secondary is mediocre at best, given that Ty Law is not 100 percent yet. They have no chance of stopping the trio of Trent Green, Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez. Expect about 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns from Holmes. If the Chiefs punt more than twice, I'll be shocked.

Winning at Arrowhead is a tall task for any team. Just look how the Chiefs have handled the opposition in their home openers.


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Chiefs are 18-4 ATS in home openers.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 48 (open) to 48 to 47.
  • Weather: Sunny, 91 degrees; wind 9 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez.
  • Sit Em: Chad Pennington, Jets Defense.

Prediction: Chiefs by 17. (Chiefs -3). Money Pick. Over.




Seahawks (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0). Line: Jaguars by 3. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Jaguars by 3.


The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: OT Pork Chop Womack, DT Rashad Moore. QUESTIONABLE: RB Maurice Morris. Jaguars: QUESTIONABLE: RB Fred Taylor*, DT Marcus Stroud.

A classic clash of offense vs. defense. Seattle possesses a dynamic scoring attack, as they are able to run and throw the ball with equal precision. Meanwhile, Jacksonville maintains one of the preeminent stop units in the NFL. If you get this game on FOX, consider yourself lucky.

The Jaguars could have the best defense in the NFL. Their run defense is impenetrable, and they will be able to place tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, thanks to the addition of defensive end Reggie Hayward, and the return of end Paul Spicer, who was injured for most of 2004. Seattle's offense revolves around Shaun Alexander, who will be limited to less than 50 rushing yards in this contest. Matt Hasselbeck will be forced to operate in a plethora of long-yardage situations, which could be hazardous to his health, given the relentless pressure he will be confronted with.

Unlike Jacksonville's defense, Seattle cannot stop the run. Their defensive tackles -- Chuck Darby and Marcus Tubbs -- are among the league's worst duos, and they have two huge voids at middle and weakside linebacker. If he plays, Fred Taylor should be able to register more than 150 rushing yards, allowing Byron Leftwich to utilize play-action.

Jacksonville plays Indianapolis in Week 2, so there is a minor chance that they may look past Seattle. However, the Seahawks are the defending NFC West champions, so the Jaguars will probably not look ahead.


The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 10-19 ATS since 2002.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: JAGUARS play the Colts next week.
  • Jaguars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven season openers.
  • Jaguars are 10-3 ATS in September home games.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 39 to 38 to 38.
  • Weather: Scattered thunderstorms, 84 degrees; wind 13 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Fred Taylor, Jaguars Defense.
  • Sit Em: Seahawks Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Jaguars by 6. (Jaguars -3). Money Pick. Under.




Buccaneers (0-0) at Vikings (0-0). Line: Vikings by 6. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Vikings by 10.


The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: G Jeb Terry, LB Jeff Gooch. QUESTIONABLE: OT Kenyatta Walker, OT Derrick Deese. Vikings: OUT: RB Onterrio Smith, C Matt Birk. QUESTIONABLE: RB Michael Bennett, RB Mewelde Moore.

This is the second point spread that is way off what it should be. The line should be at least nine. Maybe even 10. But six? I don't get it.

The days of offenses scoring in the 20s and 30s against Minnesota's defense are over. Defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, and middle linebacker Sam Cowart will clog up the middle against Cadillac Williams, Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott. When Brian Griese is faced with long-yardage situations, he will succumb to relentless pressure from Kenechi Udeze and Napoleon Harris. His receivers -- Michael Clayton and Joey Galloway -- will be blanketed by corners Antoine Winfield and Fred Smoot. Tampa Bay could be held to single digits in this contest.

Tampa Bay still has great players on defense like Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber, but their entire stop unit will be bullied around by Minnesota's mammoth offensive line, which will create huge holes for Michael Bennett and Mewelde Moore to run through. Don't forget the fact that the Bucs have to worry about Daunte Culpepper's ability to throw the ball 60 yards downfield to Nate Burleson, Troy Williamson and Marcus Robinson.

Minnesota won its previous two season openers in blowout fashion. This game will also be ugly.


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Betting History: Vikings are 5-1 ATS against the Buccaneers in their last six meetings.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Daunte Culpepper, Nate Burleson, Jermaine Wiggins, Vikings Defense.
  • Sit Em: Buccaneers Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Vikings by 24. (Vikings -6). Double Money Pick. Over. (Survivor Pick).




Titans (0-0) at Steelers (0-0). Line: Steelers by 7. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Steelers by 8.


The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Titans: OUT: TE Ben Troupe, OT Brad Hopkins. QUESTIONABLE: TE Erron Kinney. Steelers: OUT: RB Duce Staley*, RB Jerome Bettis*, LB Joey Porter.

Two bitter rivals from the old AFC Central battle it out at Heinz Field on Sunday. Unfortunately, this will not be a facsimile of the 2002 Divisional Playoff game. Both teams have enormous concerns they need to address.

Tennessee is beginning an ugly rebuilding process, but its offense has remained intact, save wide receiver Derrick Mason and offensive tackle Fred Miller. The Titans will be able to score some points this season with Steve McNair and Billy Volek at quarterback, Chris Brown at running back, and Drew Bennett, Tyrone Calico, Courtney Roby and Ben Troupe as reliable downfield targets. However, the Titans play Pittsburgh this week, meaning they have to face the toughest run defense in the NFL. The Steelers also place tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks with their brilliant blitz schemes. The departure of Miller will hurt, as Pittsburgh will take advantage of rookie Michael Roos, who starts at right tackle.

The Titans have just three starters on defense -- Keith Bulluck, Peter Sirmon and Kyle Vanden Bosch -- who have more than three years of experience. In fact, they start five defenders with two years of experience or less. Even though Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis will not play, Pittsburgh will still be able to ram the promising Willie Parker down Tennessee's throat. The Steelers' offensive line owns a gargantuan mismatch against the Titans' young defensive front. Ben Roethlisberger, who has maintained a pitiful 32.8 quarterback rating this preseason, should be able to return to 2004 form. He will have an easy time picking apart a cornerbacking corps comprised of rookie Pac Man Jones, Andre Woolfolk and four guys no one has ever heard of.

Seven is large number for a team that has a struggling quarterback and its top two running backs on the injured list. However, the Titans are one of the worst squads in the NFL. The Steelers will get off to an easy 1-0 start.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Steelers are 2-5 ATS in September home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 39 to 40.
  • Weather: Sunny, 84 degrees; wind 5 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Drew Bennett, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Steelers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Chris Brown, Titans Defense.

Prediction: Steelers by 10. (Steelers -7). Over.




Cardinals (0-0) at Giants (0-0). Line: Giants by 3. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Giants by 4.


The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: LB Gerald Hayes. QUESTIONABLE: C Alex Stepanovich. GIANTS: QUESTIONABLE: CB William Peterson. PROBABLE: QB Eli Manning*.

Kurt Warner starts his first game as an Arizona Cardinal against the team he quarterbacked in 2004, which is also the team that gave him a concussion in 2003, allowing Marc Bulger to become the starting signal caller for the St. Louis Rams, which led Warner down a career path to Arizona, after a stint in New York. Confused? So am I.

In its final three meetings against the Giants when Warner played for them, St. Louis was restricted to 16 points per game. New York owns Warner, especially when you consider that they know all of his tendencies, given that he played for them last year. Defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora will wreak havoc upon Warner and his offensive line, forcing the two-time NFL MVP to make a few ill-advised throws. New York signed middle linebacker Antonio Pierce this off-season, meaning they will be much more efficient against the run. J.J. Arrington will find it tough to gain yardage on the ground.

Eli Manning was thrown to the wolves, as he made his first four starts against the top defenses in the NFL. His fifth start came against Pittsburgh, and Manning shocked a national audience by nearly defeating the invincible Steelers. New York managed 26.7 points per contest in its final three games of the 2004 season. After an entire off-season of digesting the playbook, Manning should be ready to lead the Giants into the playoffs. He will receive help from Tiki Barber, who will be able to gain more than 125 rushing yards against Arizona's pedestrian defense.

The public is crying for an upset, which is reflected in the point spread. However, games are not won with wide receivers; instead, teams must have a great defense, a solid offensive line and a quarterback who doesn't make mistakes. Arizona lacks two of those virtues.


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Giants are 1-9 ATS at home before two straight road games the previous 10 instances.
  • Line Movement: Giants -2 (open) to Giants -1 to Giants -2 to Giants -3.
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 37 to 37.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 83 degrees; wind 7 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey, Giants Defense.
  • Sit Em: Kurt Warner, J.J. Arrington.

Prediction: Giants by 10. (Giants -2). Over.




Packers (0-0) at Lions (0-0). Line: Lions by 3. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Lions by 1.


The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: Packers: OUT: QUESTIONABLE: DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, LB Na'il Diggs. Lions: OUT: QB Jeff Garcia, FB Cory Schlesinger. QUESTIONABLE: QB Joey Harrington*, RB Kevin Jones*, WR Charles Rogers*, DE James Hall, DT Shawn Rogers, OLB Teddy Lehman.

The Lions are a three-point favorite over the Packers? I must have missed the telegram that anointed Detroit as a better team than Green Bay.

Detroit shockingly has one of the better run defenses in the NFL. In fact, they restricted Ahman Green to just 76 yards on 23 carries in their Dec. 12 meeting with the Packers in 2004. However, Green Bay was able to sweep Detroit because Brett Favre was able to torch the Lions' pathetic secondary. Favre will have all day to throw Sunday afternoon, since James Hall and Cory Redding are poor pass rushers, and will struggle against Packers offensive tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher.

Green Bay could have the worst defense in the NFL. In that same Dec. 12 meeting, Kevin Jones carved up the Packers' defense for 156 yards on 33 carries. He will once again trample the Packers woeful front seven. That should theoretically permit Joey Harrington to utilize play-action, allowing him to burn Green Bay corners Al Harris, Joey Thomas and Ahmad Carroll downfield. Unfortunately for Harrington, that will not happen because offensive tackles Kelly Butler and Jeff Backus will be thoroughly embarrassed by Packers defensive ends Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Aaron Kampman.

The Packers were 2-point underdogs to the Lions in Week 6 last year. That meant nothing as Green Bay pounded its rival, 38-10. Looks like the oddsmakers are committing the same error.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Packers have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Brett Favre is 11-28 ATS (16-23 straight up) in domes.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 46 to 45.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Brett Favre, Javon Walker, Donald Driver, Kevin Jones.
  • Sit Em: Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers.

Prediction: Packers by 14. (Packers +2). Under.




Rams (0-0) at 49ers (0-0). Line: Rams by 6. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Rams by 7.


The Game. Edge: Rams.
Injuries: Rams: OUT Jerametrius Butler. QUESTIONABLE: DT Ryan Pickett. 49ers: QUESTIONABLE: G Eric Heitmann, C Jeremy Newberry.

If you like the 49ers plus the points, I suggest you wait until Sunday morning. The team is considered one of the NFL's worst by everyone outside of the Bay Area.

San Francisco isn't as bad as everyone makes them out to be. They will have trouble scoring this season, but their defense is comprised of a few stars, such as Julian Peterson, Andre Carter, Ahmed Plummer and Tony Parrish. They may force the Rams to punt on occasion, but there aren't many defenses in the NFL that can stop the Greatest Show on Turf. The 49ers have no depth at cornerback; guys like Derrick Johnson, Mike Adams and Shawntae Spencer cannot match up with Shaun McDonald and Kevin Curtis. The Rams will take many shots downfield, mixed in with powerful runs by Steven Jackson and some short passes to the still-elusive Marshall Faulk.

If rookie Alex Smith was named the starter for this contest, the 49ers would have no chance of covering. However, Tim Rattay is a decent signal caller. He will be able to throw against the Rams' secondary, which also lacks depth. St. Louis has a terrible run defense, thanks to the lack of talent they have at defensive tackle and linebacker. Kevan Barlow could approach the 100-rushing-yard plateau.

On paper, St. Louis should be able to obliterate San Francisco. But, who knows how unfocused the Rams will be? They are terrible on grass, and they are already preparing for their Week 2 battle against the Cardinals by turning the heat up in their practice facility. St. Louis will overlook the 49ers, who should be able to hang around, but will ultimately lose.


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: Rams have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.
  • LOOK-AHEAD ALERT: RAMS play the Cardinals next week.
  • Rams are 7-18 ATS in road games since 2001.
  • Rams are 5-13 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Rams are 1-4 ATS in season openers under Mike Martz.
  • Line Movement: Rams -4 (open) to Rams -6 to Rams -5 to Rams -6.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Sunny, 56 degrees; mild wind 14 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Rams Offense.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Rams by 3. (49ers +6). Under.




Cowboys (0-0) at Chargers (0-0). Line: Chargers by 4. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Chargers by 5.


The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: Cowboys: OUT: OLB Kevin Burnett. Chargers: OUT: TE Antonio Gates*, LB Shawne Merriman. QUESTIONABLE: QB Drew Brees*, WR Eric Parker, OT Shane Olivea.

Bill Parcells made a number of significant additions to his team this offseason. But, has it been enough to allow the Cowboys to beat one of the elite teams in the AFC? We will find out, in what should be a nationally televised game on FOX at 4:15.

This may be Parcells' final season in Dallas, so don't be surprised if Julius Jones is given 30 carries per game, allowing him to lead the league in rushing. Jones should receive 25-30 carries Sunday, but will be stymied by San Diego's superb run defense. Drew Bledsoe will be forced into many unfavorable long-yardage situations, and you know what that means. Bledsoe will hold the ball too long, and will consequently get sacked by linebackers Donnie Edwards, Randall Godfrey and Steve Foley.

The Cowboys could not stop the run in 2004, which is why they acquired a massive amount of talent on defense, including nose tackle Jason Ferguson, defensive end Marcus Spears and outside linebackers Demarcus Ware and Kevin Burnett. However, Dallas' defense did not look like it was rebuilt by Parcells during the preseason. The Cowboys may also be missing Ferguson, who has not yet played for his new team. LaDainian Tomlinson, easily the best running back in the NFL, will trample Dallas' front seven, allowing Drew Brees to play-action to Keenan McCardell, Eric Parker and Reche Caldwell. Antonio Gates is out until Week 2.

There is a chance the Chargers may look ahead to their contest against Denver, but Parcells and the Cowboys are a formidable opponent. San Diego will not look ahead.


The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: CHARGERS play the Broncos next week.
  • Cowboys are 0-2 ATS in season openers under Bill Parcells.
  • Cowboys are 5-9 ATS as a road underdog under Bill Parcells.
  • Line Movement: 41 (open) to 40.
  • Total Movement: Coming Wednesday night.
  • Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees; wind 9 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jason Witten, Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Drew Bledsoe, Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Antonio Gates.

Prediction: Chargers by 13. (Chargers -4). Under.




Colts (0-0) at Ravens (0-0). Line: Colts by 3. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Colts by 1.


The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Colts: OUT: S Mike Doss. QUESTIONABLE: RB Dominic Rhodes, WR Brandon Stokley*, C Jeff Saturday, DE Robert Mathism DT Montae Reagor, CB Donald Strickland, S Bob Sanders. Ravens: QUESTIONABLE: CB Samari Rolle, CB Deion Sanders.

What a great way to open up the final real season of Sunday Night Football. The best offense in the NFL vs. Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle.

Baltimore's defense as a whole is overrated. They could not stop stout, two-dimensional offensive attacks last season. They could not defend Cincinnati, Kansas City or Indianapolis. The Ravens managed to acquire Rolle, switched back to a 4-3 defense and received Peter Boulware back from injury, so that may change in 2005. However, I will remain a skeptic until proven wrong. The Ravens have a void at defensive tackle, Lewis is passed his prime, McAlister is not a shut-down cornerback and there is no depth at corner. The Colts have too many weapons for Baltimore. Peyton Manning and company will be forced to punt on occasion, but they should be able to score more than 24 points.

Kyle Boller is out of excuses. The Ravens acquired Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton this off-season. Indianapolis will stack the line of scrimmage against Jamal Lewis, coaxing Boller to beat them down the field. Again, I am skeptical about Boller's ability to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He has shown no signs of being a prolific passer. Baltimore could score 20 points in this contest, but no more.

I am not abandoning my philosophy that great defense always beats great offense; in this scenario, great offense defeats great fraud.


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Colts are 0-2 ATS in season openers under Tony Dungy.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 47 (open) to 47 to 46 to 46.
  • Weather: Clear, 73 degrees; wind 6 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Colts Offense, Todd Heap.
  • Sit Em: Kyle Boller, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton.

Prediction: Colts by 10. (Colts -3). Bonus Double Money Pick. Under.




Eagles (0-0) at Falcons (0-0). Line: Eagles by 1. Over-Under: 41.
Monday, 9:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (As of 9/4): Eagles by 2.


The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Eagles: OUT: RB Correll Buckhalter, WR Todd Pinkston, DE Jerome McDougal. QUESTIONABLE: FB Josh Parry, OT Tra Thomas, P Dirk Johnson. Falcons: QUESTIONABLE: WR Roddy White, CB Kevin Mathis.

Revenge. One word symbolizes the feelings the Falcons have about this game. They will try to avenge their 27-10 loss to the Eagles in the 2004 NFC Championship Game.

Atlanta's defense did an admirable job against Philadelphia's offense, until they were worn down in the fourth quarter. The same stop unit welcomes the addition of middle linebacker Ed Hartwell, who will help stop the run. Brian Westbrook will not be able to gouge the Falcons defense for 96 yards on 16 carries. Terrell Owens, who may or may not be causing problems for Philadelphia by not communicating with Donovan McNabb, should help his team score at least two touchdowns. However, the Eagles' inability to run the ball will place McNabb in many third-and-long situations. The sack-happy Falcons will disrupt a few drives by pinning McNabb to the ground.

Derrick Burgess had six tackles and two sacks for the Eagles against Atlanta last year. The two sacks were huge, especially against the electrifying Michael Vick. Burgess is gone, along with linebacker Ike Reese, meaning the Eagles will be less effective against Vick and his running backs, Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. The Falcons are also at home this time, so Vick does not need to be concerned about any tornados whisking his ball away from his targets.

A Super Bowl curse looms large. Owens' negative attitude looms larger. The fact that the Eagles did not sign any key free agents this offseason looms largest. Atlanta will avenge its loss.


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 3-8 ATS in their first game the following season since 1994.
  • Revenge Situation: Eagles beat the FALCONS in the 2005 NFC Championship Game.
  • Eagles are 7-2 ATS on Monday Night Football since 2001.
  • Eagles are 29-11 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Falcons are 1-13 ATS on Monday Night Football in their previous 14 appearances.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -2 (open) to Eagles -1 to Eagles -1.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 41.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, Michael Vick, Alge Crumpler.
  • Sit Em: Greg Lewis, Reggie Brown, Eagles Defense.

Prediction: Falcons by 7. (Falcons +1). Money Pick. Under.


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1 5 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2014): 7-8 (+$100)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 3-3 (+$480)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2014): 1-1 (+$60)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2014): 8-7 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2014): -$220

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$1,070)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 96-90-6, 51.6% (+$245)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 35-29, 54.7% (+$1,280)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 7-10-1, 41.2% (-$1,200)
2014 Season Over-Under: 97-76-2, 56.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,030

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,110-1,934-116, 52.2% (+$12,660)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 679-612-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 283-244-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,638-1,613-48 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 4-7
Bears: 5-6
Bucs: 8-3
49ers: 4-6
Eagles: 7-4
Lions: 3-7
Falcons: 6-5
Cardinals: 6-5
Giants: 3-8
Packers: 8-2
Panthers: 5-6
Rams: 5-6
Redskins: 8-3
Vikings: 9-2
Saints: 4-6
Seahawks: 5-6
Bills: 4-7
Bengals: 4-8
Colts: 6-5
Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 7-3
Browns: 6-3
Jaguars: 6-5
Chargers: 3-8
Jets: 6-5
Ravens: 4-6
Texans: 5-6
Chiefs: 7-3
Patriots: 5-6
Steelers: 6-5
Titans: 6-3
Raiders: 3-8
Divisional: 24-24* (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 11-14 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 16-19 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-30 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 26-12* (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 8-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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