Bengals (1-2) at Steelers (2-1). Line: Steelers by 4. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Steelers by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Steelers by 5.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: BENGALS: OUT: C Rich Braham, DT Carl Powell, LB Nate Webster, CB Dennis Weathersby, S Kim Herring. DOUBTFUL: WR Peter Warrick, C Larry Moore. QUESTIONABLE: OT Levi Jones, S Rogers Beckett. STEELERS: OUT: QB Tommy Maddox, G Kendall Simmons. QUESTIONABLE: LB Kendrell Bell.

Rudi Johnson has tallied 232 rushing yards this season, but has only gained 3.4 yards per carry, thanks to a pedestrian offensive line. Pittsburgh is ranked third against the run, surrendering just 3.1 yards per rush. That means Carson Palmer will have to throw on many long yardage situations. Not what Marvin Lewis is looking for because the Steelers have already registered eight sacks this season. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has been bringing the heat this season and will not let up against a rookie quarterback making his third start on the road. Palmer will be able to connect with Chad Johnson, who will exploit Pittsburgh's weak secondary, but if the Steelers can force Cincinnati into long yardage situations, Palmer will get knocked around a lot.

Bill Cowher's new emphasis on running the football will pay off in this game because the Bengals allow an embarrassing 5.9 yards per carry. On short yardage situations, Ben Roethlisberger will be able to play-action pass to Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress and Antwaan Randle El, one of the NFL's most feared trio of wide receivers. Cincinnati's second leading tackler, Nate Webster, is out. Pittsburgh should be able to score at will against one of the worst stop units in professional football.


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • History: Steelers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Bengals are 4-9 ATS vs. AFC North opponents since 2001.
  • Steelers are 5-2 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Steelers are 29-14 ATS in October since 1992.
  • Line Movement: Steelers -4 (open) to Steelers -3 to Steelers -4 to Steelers -4.
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 39 to 38.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 71 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chad Johnson, Duce Staley, Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh Defense.
  • Sit Em: Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Defense.

Prediction: Steelers by 9 (Steelers -4). Over.




Colts (2-1) at Jaguars (3-0). Line: Colts by 4. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Colts by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Colts by 3.

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: COLTS: OUT: CB Joseph Jefferson, S Bob Sanders, S Mike Doss, S Idrees Bashir. JAGUARS: OUT: TE Kyle Brady, DE Paul Spicer.

Who will prevail when the number one offense takes on the number one defense? The Colts have scored 100 points in three games, while the Jaguars have only given up 28. Using the history between these two teams as a measuring stick, this contest will be very close. Since Indianapolis and Jacksonville were grouped together in the AFC South, the Colts have won three out of four, all by 10 points or less. However, the Jaguars won their latest matchup, 28-23.

Last season, Indianapolis was restricted to just 2.6 yards per carry when they played Jacksonville. The Jags are up to their old tricks, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush to opposing running backs this season. They will once again nullify the Colts' running game. Plenty of teams are good against the run, but the Jaguars' ability to play the pass is what makes them the best defense in the NFL. Rashean Mathis has matured into a shut down cornerback, and the addition of Deon Grant via free agency has been very significant. With all of that said, Peyton Manning is unstoppable, unless the opposing coach is Bill Belichick. Indianapolis will score points in this contest, unlike the Bills, Broncos and Titans.

This may be the game that Jacksonville's offense breaks out of its shell. Up to this point, they have only scored 35 points in three contests, but the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. With the same personnel, the Jaguars scored 28 points against them last season. Fred Taylor will abuse a unit that allows 5.2 yards per carry, and Byron Leftwich will come close to 200 passing yards; he accumulated 179 in the last meeting between these two squads.

In a matchup between a great offense and a great defense, the latter usually wins. This game shouldn't deviate from that tendency.


The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • History: Colts have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Jaguars are 3-6 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Colts -4 (open) to Colts -3 to Colts -4.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 43.
  • Weather: Possible Thunder Storms, 83 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith.
  • Sit Em: Edgerrin James, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Jaguars by 3. (Jaguars +4). Over.




Raiders (2-1) at Texans (1-2). Line: Raiders by 2. Over-Under: 42.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Raiders by 1.

The Game. Edge: Raiders.
Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: QB Rich Gannon*, G Mo Collins. TEXANS: OUT: RB Domanick Davis*, S Eric Brown. QUESTIONABLE: WR Corey Bradford, G Zach Wiegert.

Rich Gannon is out for at least six weeks. His injury was devastating last season, but the Raiders can now defer to Kerry Collins, who many believe is a superior quarterback. Collins will be throwing the ball all afternoon, because the Texans can not stop opposing aerial attacks - even Drew Brees looked like a Pro Bowl quarterback against them. Houston has allowed 570 passing yards this season, but that statistic is misleading because the opposition just runs the football most of the time. For the second consecutive week, Oakland's offense will be firing on all cylinders.

What a difference a year makes. The Raiders were ranked near the bottom of many defensive categories last season. Warren Sapp, Ted Washington, Bobby Hamilton, Danny Clark and Ray Buchanan were all acquired this offseason. Consequently, Oakland's defense is now ranked seventh against the run, and has only allowed 18 points per game. The Texans will not be able to run the football with Domanick Davis, placing David Carr in a plethora of long yardage situations. Unfortunately for the young signal caller, Oakland has already registered 11 sacks this season. Sapp and company will trample Carr, who will have to wait to cut his hair.


The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 25-54 ATS since 2001. Texans kicked a GW FG with :02 left.
  • Raiders are 1-6 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Raiders are 1-8 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Texans are 6-3 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Texans are 8-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Pick (open) to Raiders -2.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Kerry Collins, Jerry Porter, Oakland Defense.
  • Sit Em: Domanick Davis, Houston Defense.

Prediction: Raiders by 10. (Raiders -2). Money Pick. Over.




Patriots (2-0) at Bills (0-2). Line: Patriots by 5. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Patriots by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Patriots by 4.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: PATRIOTS: OUT: TE Ben Watson. DOUBTFUL: WR Deion Branch. BILLS: S Lawyer Milloy*.

Will the Patriots continue their dominance over Buffalo, or will this contest be a mirror image of the 2003 season opener? In that game, the Patriots offense was stymied by the Bills' defense that fed off emotion provided by the acquisition of ex-Patriot Lawyer Milloy. New England was confused and unprepared for Buffalo.

Bill Belichick will prepare his team this time. Buffalo actually has one of the best defenses in the NFL; they surrender just three yards per rush, while maintaining one of the elite secondaries in professional football, although they will be missing their fiery leader, Lawyer Milloy. The Patriots simply have the Bills' number. In the final game of the 2003 season, New England scored 31 points against the Bills' vaunted defense. They rushed for 131 yards, which is remarkable considering that Antowain Smith was their starting running back. It will be business as usual for Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense.

Excluding the 31-0 anomaly, Drew Bledsoe has thrown an average of 2.3 interceptions per game against the Patriots. Bill Belichick knows how to defend his former signal caller. He designs complex schemes which confuse the erratic quarterback, leading to interceptions and errant passes. New England allows 4.1 yards per carry, which means Travis Henry should receive as many carries as possible. But ultimately, Bledsoe will have to throw the football and only bad things can happen when he does that against New England.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Patriots are 9-3 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Bills are 2-6 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 34.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 66 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: New England Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: Buffalo Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Patriots by 17. (Patriots -5). Under.




Eagles (3-0) at Bears (1-2). Line: Eagles by 9. Over-Under: 39.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Eagles by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Eagles by 7.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: EAGLES: OUT: RB Correll Buckhalter, FB Jon Ritchie, G Shawn Andrews, DE N.D. Kalu. QUESTIONABLE: TE L.J. Smith, G Jermaine Mayberry. BEARS: OUT: QB Rex Grossman*, G Rex Tucker, DT Alfonso Boone, LB Brian Urlacher*, CB Charles Tillman, CB Jerry Azumah, S Mike Brown.

The entire nation thought that the Eagles-Lions game was a trap game for Philadelphia. Rex Grossman is out and three starters in the Bears' secondary will not play, so this can not be a trap game for the favorite, right? Wrong. This is the real trap game for the Eagles because everyone is writing off the Bears, who won at Green Bay and were competitive at Minnesota. The line reflects the public's opinion about this contest; the Bears are nine point home underdogs.

Lovie Smith is doing it with mirrors. The Bears allow 4.4 yards per carry and surrender 262 passing yards per game. Yet, the Packers only managed to score 10 points, while Minnesota was held in check for most of last week's matchup. Chicago's bend but don't break defense may work against a potentially lackadaisical Philadelphia offense. If this game actually mattered to the Eagles, they could score at will against Chicago.

Philadelphia's glaring weakness is their inability to stop the run. They have not been tested the past two weeks; Michael Bennett was not available for Minnesota, and Kevin Jones has not been able to carry Detroit's offense effectively all season. Thomas Jones, however, is having an incredible campaign. He has 329 rushing yards, third most in the NFL. Jones will be able to rip off a few double digit carries, making life easier for Jonathan Quinn. The loss of Grossman has everyone panicking. No one should be scared. Grossman has thrown only one touchdown, compared to three interceptions, and his completion percentage is only 56%. Not a gargantuan drop off by any means.


The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 11-14 ATS since 2003.
  • Bears are 6-3 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -8 (open) to Eagles -9.
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 39.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 69 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, L.J. Smith, Thomas Jones.
  • Sit Em: Chicago's QB and WRs.

Prediction: Eagles by 6. (Bears +9). Under.




Redskins (1-2) at Browns (1-2). Line: Redskins by 3. Over-Under: 35.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Browns by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Redskins by 1.

The Game. Edge: Redskins.
Injuries: REDSKINS: OUT: OT Jon Jansen, DE Phillip Daniels, LB LaVar Arrington. BROWNS: OUT: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., OT Ryan Tucker, DE Courtney Brown, DT Gerard Warren, LB Ben Taylor. QUESTIONABLE: WR QUincy Morgan, DE Ebenezer Ekuban, CB Anthony Henry, CB Daylon McCutcheon, CB Earl Little.

What happened to Cleveland's defense? Two weeks after completely shutting down Jamal Lewis, Tiki Barber gained 106 yards against the Browns last Sunday. Bad news for fans of the Dog Pound, because Joe Gibbs and Clinton Portis are coming to town. Portis should easily eclipse the 100 yard rushing plateau, setting up play-action passes for Mark Brunell, who will be throwing against a defense that has yielded 251 passing yards per game. Although the Redskins have a Swiss cheese offensive line, Cleveland has three significant injuries that will prevent them from exploiting those holes. Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren and Ben Taylor are all out. Washington has yet to crack 20 points in a single game under Joe Gibbs. That will change after this contest.

What happened to Cleveland's offense? After scoring 20 against Baltimore's incredible defense, they have tallied just 12 and 10 in their next two games. Lee Suggs' return may provide a much needed boost, but the Redskins have the top ranked run defense in the NFL; they allow just 2.2 yards per carry, which is an astonishing figure. Their prolific pass defense (197 passing yards per game allowed) will not have any trouble containing Jeff Garcia and a receiving corps that is missing Kellen Winslow Jr.


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Browns are 6-11 ATS at home since 2002.
  • Line Movement: Redskins -2 (open) to Redskins -3.
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 35.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 68 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Washington Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: Cleveland Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Redskins by 10. (Redskins -3). Under.




Giants (2-1) at Packers (1-2). Line: Packers by 7. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Packers by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Packers by 6.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: GIANTS: OUT: RB Ron Dayne, G Rich Seubert, G Barry Stokes, S Omar Stoutmire, S Shaun Williams. PACKERS: OUT: C Mike Flanagan, DT Grady Jackson, CB Mike McKenzie.

Two weeks ago, the Packers' run defense was exposed by Thomas Jones, who rushed for 152 yards on 23 carries. Last Sunday, it was the pass defense that was embarrassed; Peyton Manning torched Green Bay's secondary for 393 yards and five touchdowns. The Packers can't seem to stop anything. Conversely, the Giants can't seem to be stopped. Kurt Warner has revived his career with the Giants. Unable to win a single game in 2002 and 2003, Warner now has a completion percentage of 64.8%, a quarterback rating of 94.0 and has yet to throw an interception. It helps that he has Amani Toomer, Ike Hilliard and Jeremy Shockey to throw to, and the fact that Tiki Barber is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. New York's offense will not be contained by the Packers' slumping stop unit.

Once again, Green Bay's offense will have to keep up with their opponent - and they will. The Giants yield 4.9 yards per carry and have given up nearly 230 passing yards per game. Ahman Green will accumulate nearly 150 rushing yards, allowing Brett Favre to play-action to his plethora of wide receivers.

There will not be as many points scored as there were in the Packers-Colts game last week, but the total should approach 60.


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Packers are 16-9 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Sunny, 66 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Offenses.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Packers by 3. (Giants +7). Over.




Falcons (3-0) at Panthers (1-1). Line: Panthers by 3. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Panthers by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Panthers by 4.

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
Injuries: FALCONS: OUT: CB DeAngelo Hall, S Keion Carpenter. QUESTIONABLE: WR Brian Finneran, LB Jamie Duncan. PANTHERS: OUT: RB Stephen Davis, WR Steve Smith, G Bruce Nelson.

Carolina has one of the better defenses in the NFL, but something happens whenever they have to play against Michael Vick. They lose. Vick and the Falcons are 3-0 against the Panthers. In fact, the Falcons have averaged over 185 rushing yards whenever they have battled Carolina with their athletic quarterback. There is no reason why this meeting will be any different. Unlike last week's contest against the Arizona Cardinals, the Falcons will be focused and ready to commence their season with a 4-0 record.

In 2003, Atlanta's ground defense was pathetic. Now, they are giving up only 3.1 yards per rush. The difference? Not the personnel; other than Rod Coleman, they have remained the same. Try Michael Vick. Even he impacts the defense. Whenever Vick plays, Atlanta's defense gets more rest. Plus, when he sustained a major injury last year, the defense became deflated because all hope was lost. As soon as Vick returned, Atlanta held these Panthers to 90 rushing yards on 33 carries. DeShaun Foster will not be able to establish himself as a threat, leaving Jake Delhomme in many long yardage situations, without his favorite receiver, Steve Smith.


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • History: Falcons have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.
  • History: Michael Vick is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. the Panthers.
  • Panthers are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or more since 2001.
  • Panthers are 2-7 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 40 to 39 to 38.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 78 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn.
  • Sit Em: Carolina Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Falcons by 14. (Falcons +3). Money Pick. Under.




Saints (2-1) at Cardinals (0-3). Line: Saints by 3. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Saints by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Saints by 5.

The Game. Edge: Saints.
Injuries: SAINTS: OUT: RB Deuce McAllister, DE Willie Whitehead, LB Sedrick Hodge. CARDINALS: OUT: RB Marcel Shipp, WR Anquan Boldin, DE Fred Wakefield, DT Wendell Bryant, S Dexter Jackson. DOUBTFUL: LB Raynoch Thompson.

Deuce McAllister was out last week, but Aaron Stecker stepped in and rushed for over 100 yards against St. Louis' pathetic defense. The Cardinals are slightly worse against the run than the Rams are, which means Stecker may break the century mark for the second consecutive week. Aaron Brooks will be able to capitalize on a few brilliant Stecker runs. However, keep in mind that New Orleans is coming off of an overtime victory and they play one of their archrivals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, next week. If the Saints are unfocused, they will have trouble scoring points.

Despite fumbling thrice, Josh McCown played well against Atlanta. Like the Falcons, the Saints have trouble defending aerial attacks; they surrender 253 passing yards per game. McCown will have his best performance of the season, and even Emmitt Smith might be able to have a semi-decent performance. New Orleans is ranked just 24th against the run.


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 25-54 ATS since 2001. Saints kicked a GW FG in overtime.
  • Sandwich Situation: SAINTS: Cardinals are sandwiched between rivals Rams and Buccaneers.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 11-14 ATS since 2003.
  • Saints are 8-4 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Cardinals are 6-3 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Line Movement: Saints -3 (open) to Saints -3 to Saints -3.
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 40.
  • Weather: Sunny, 97 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Joe Horn, Donte Stallworth, Josh McCown, Larry Fitzgerald.
  • Sit Em: Deuce McAllister, Emmitt Smith.

Prediction: Cardinals by 3. (Cardinals +3). Double Money Pick. Under.




Jets (2-0) at Dolphins (0-3). Line: Jets by 6. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Jets by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Jets by 4.

The Game. Edge: Jets.
Injuries: JETS: OUT: DT Josh Evans, LB Sam Cowart, CB Ray Mickens. QUESTIONABLE: C Kevin Mawae. DOLPHINS: OUT: RB Travis Minor, RB Lamar Gordon, WR David Boston, DT Larry Chester. DOUBTFUL: FB Rob Konrad. QUESTIONABLE: WR Chris Chambers, DT Tim Bowens.

How long will the Miami defense last? They have been playing way over their heads the last three games, attempting to win by themselves. Yet, three and out, after three and out, the stop unit keeps coming back on the field. Eventually, they will break down. Curtis Martin has been outstanding this season; he is ranked fifth in rushing yards and already had his bye. The Dolphins allow 4.1 yards per carry against the run; not bad, but not spectacular. The weakness on Miami's defense is their inability to stop deep passing offenses. Chad Pennington, perhaps the most accurate signal caller in the NFL, will be able to shred the Dolphins' secondary.

A.J. Feeley out, Jay Fiedler in. It doesn't matter. As long as a pathetic offensive line is still in place, Peyton Manning could be under center and the Fins still wouldn't score many points. Miami has no means to move the chains while they have the ball. They can't run and neither quarterback has enough time to locate an open receiver. If the Jets score just 10 points, they will probably cover the six point spread.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Dolphins have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Dolphins are 1-9 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Line Movement: Jets -4 (open) to Jets -5 to Jets -6.
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 36.
  • Weather: Possible Thunder Storms, 86 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Santana Moss, Jets Defense.
  • Sit Em: Miami Offense.

Prediction: Jets by 10. (Jets -6). Under.




Titans (1-2) at Chargers (1-2). Line: Titans by 3. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Titans by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Titans by 4.

The Game. Edge: Titans.
Injuries: TITANS: OUT: QB Steve McNair, G Zach Piller, LB Peter Sirmon. CHARGERS: OUT: OT Courtney Van Buren, LB Carlos Polk.

Steve McNair is questionable for this game. Given his toughness, McNair will probably play. If he doesn't, Billy Volek has stepped into the starting role before and has done an exceptional job. In this situation, it will be better if Volek plays because everyone around him will play harder, knowing that McNair is out of the lineup. Chris Brown has been the focal point of Tennessee's offense. Brown leads the league in rushing yards, but must battle a super-charged San Diego run defense, which surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. If only their pass defense played so well; the Chargers have given up 258.3 passing yards per game and have only registered three sacks. Jeff Fisher should spread out four or five wide receivers and just keep on attacking San Diego's young secondary.

So much for being able to stop the run. The Titans were ranked first against opposing rushing attacks in 2003. Now, they are ranked 26th and allow 4.8 yards per carry. That's why they are 1-2, and not 3-0. LaDainian Tomlinson should have a great game, as long as his defense doesn't give up too many points right away. If the Bolts are down 28-7 in the first half, Tomlinson will not be much of a factor, resulting in lots of turnovers and errant passes from Drew Brees.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Chargers are 12-20 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 79 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Derrick Mason, Drew Bennett, Erron Kinney, LaDainian Tomlinson.
  • Sit Em: Steve McNair, Chris Brown, San Diego Defense.

Prediction: Titans by 7. (Titans -3). Over.




Broncos (2-1) at Buccaneers (0-3). Line: Broncos by 3. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Broncos by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Broncos by 3.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: BRONCOS: OUT: RB Mike Anderson, DE Trevor Pryce. BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Charlie Garner, WR Joe Jurevicius, WR Joey Galloway, WR Keenan McCardell, TE Ricky Dudley, G Kerry Jenkins, G Matt O'Dwyer.

Remember when the Buccaneers had the most dominant defense in the NFL? On Sunday night, that was a distant memory when Tampa Bay allowed 100 rushing yards to Tyrone Wheatley. Let me say that again. They allowed 100 rushing yards to Tyrone Wheatley. Clearly, the Bucs can not defend the run; they have surrendered 4.6 yards per carry this season. The three headed running back monster, comprised of Quentin Griffin, Tatum Bell and Garrison Hearst will be able to accumulate enough yardage to allow Jake Plummer to play-action bootleg successfully.

Last week it was Warren Sapp. Now, it's John Lynch. For the second game in a row, the Buccaneers' offense will be terrorized by a player they mistakenly did not resign. Lynch is one of the premier run-stuffing safeties in the NFL, and he is a major reason why LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers were contained to just three yards per carry last Sunday. Michael Pittman returns from his three game suspension, but his presence will not help against Denver's defense. Brad Johnson's attempts at moving the chains via the passing game will also fail. The Broncos have given up just 130 passing yards per game, which is an incredible figure.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Line Movement: Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie, Denver Defense.
  • Total Movement: Tampa Bay Offense and Defense.
  • Weather: Possible Thunder Storms, 86 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em:
  • Sit Em:

Prediction: Broncos by 11. (Broncos -3). Under.




Rams (1-2) at 49ers (0-3). Line: Rams by 4. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Rams by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Rams by 5.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: RAMS: OUT: OT Kyle Turley, C Dave Wholabaugh, DT Jimmy Kennedy, CB Travis Fisher, S Zack Bronson. 49ERS: OUT: C Jeremy Newberry. QUESTIONABLE: QB Tim Rattay.

The Rams are up to their old tricks. They move down the field well, but self-destruct by turning the ball over. Blame must be placed on head coach Mike Martz, who does not run the football enough. In fact, he has thrown the football twice as many times as he has called running plays, despite having Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson in the backfield. The 49ers' defense is actually solid against the run; they surrender just 3.1 yards per carry. However, they can not defend the pass, which is what Martz does most. Expect the usual from St. Louis - tons of yardage and tons of turnovers.

San Francisco's offense has a major edge against the Rams' defense. Kevan Barlow is one of the best running backs in the NFL and St. Louis can not stop the run; they give up an embarrassing 5.1 yards per rush. Unlike last week, Ken Dorsey will be able to play-action pass because the Rams will place eight men in the box to counter the 49ers' running attack. San Francisco will not be shut out two weeks in a row.


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: Home Team has won the last 4 meetings.
  • Rams are 4-13 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Rams are 3-9 ATS on grass snce 2001.
  • 49ers are 6-2 ATS at home since 2003.
  • 49ers are 5-2 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Rams -4 (open) to Rams -3 to Rams -4.
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 44 to 43 to 44.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 60 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Kevan Barlow, Cedric Wilson, Brandon Lloyd.
  • Sit Em: Marshall Faulk, Steven Jackson, Both Defenses.

Prediction: 49ers by 10. (49ers +4). Money Pick. Over.




Chiefs (0-3) at Ravens (2-1). Line: Ravens by 5. Over-Under: 41.
Monday, 9:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 3 Games): Ravens by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 3 Games): Ravens by 6.

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Injuries: CHIEFS: OUT: WR Marc Boerigter, LB Mike Maslowski. QUESTIONABLE: WR Eddie Kennison, DE Vonnie Holliday, CB William Bartee, S Jerome Woods. KR/PR Dante Hall. RAVENS: OUT: QB Anthony Wright, WR Travis Taylor, TE Todd Heap, C Mike Flynn, LB Peter Boulware, CB Dale Carter.

A battle between the 2003 Chiefs and these Ravens would be an intriguing Monday night matchup, but Kansas City can not score. They did not upgrade their pedestrian receiving corps, nor did they address the gaping hole at right tackle, vacated by John Tait, who defected for Chicago this offseason. Consequently, the Chiefs are scoring just 20.7 points per game. Last season, they averaged over 30. Priest Holmes is one of the elite running backs in the NFL, but the Ravens allow just 3.7 yards per carry. When Holmes battled Baltimore's defense in 2003, he gained just 90 yards on 22 carries. Trent Green was restricted to just 159 passing yards. It should not be surprising if the Chiefs fail to match the total number of points their offense scored against the Ravens in week four of the 2003 season - 10.

Kansas City allows 4.8 rushing yards per carry, which is actually an improvement over last year's average of 5.2. However, Jamal Lewis will join Quentin Griffin and DeShaun Foster as running backs who have tallied over 100 rushing yards against the Chiefs this season. In last year's meeting, Lewis registered 115 yards. Kyle Boller threw three interceptions, enabling Kansas City to steal a victory in Baltimore. Boller has avoided turnovers in his last two games and will not repeat last year's performance.


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Ravens are 7-2 ATS at home since 2003 (21-12 ATS since 2000).
  • Line Movement: Ravens -4 (open) to Ravens -4 to Ravens -5.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 41.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 64 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tony Gonzalez, Priest Holmes, Randy Hymes, Baltimore Defense.
  • Sit Em: Trent Green, Johnnie Morton, Eddie Kennison, Kansas City Defense.

Prediction: Ravens by 17. (Ravens -5). Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 2-1
Eagles: 3-0
Giants: 1-2
Redskins: 1-2

Bears: 1-2
Lions: 3-0
Packers: 2-1
Vikings: 1-2

Buccaneers: 1-2
Falcons: 2-1
Panthers: 2-0
Saints: 2-1

49ers: 2-1
Cardinals: 2-1
Rams: 1-2
Seahawks: 1-2

Bills: 2-0
Dolphins: 2-1
Jets: 2-0
Patriots: 0-1

Bengals: 3-0
Browns: 1-2
Ravens: 1-2
Steelers: 0-3

Colts: 1-1
Jaguars: 3-0
Texans: 2-1
Titans: 2-1

Broncos: 2-0
Chargers: 2-0
Chiefs: 2-1
Raiders: 2-1

Divisional Games: 7-7
Trend Edge: 5-8
Game Edge: 5-6
Game & Trend Edge: 1-2


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2013): 0-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2013): +$300

2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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