Ravens (1-2) at Lions (1-2). Line: Lions by 1. Over-Under: 33.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Ravens by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Ravens by 3.

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Injuries: Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller, DE Anthony Weaver. QUESTIONABLE: FB Alan Ricard. Lions: OUT: QB Jeff Garcia, WR Charles Rogers, CB Fernando Bryant. DOUBTFUL: FB Cory Schlesinger. QUESTIONABLE: DE James Hall, CB Andre Goodman.

At 1-2, the Ravens are 2 games out of first place in the AFC North. At 1-2, the Lions are tied for first in the NFC North. Think Baltimore wishes it was in the NFC?

Baltimore has failed to score more than 13 points in any game this season. That's because the team has the most one-dimensional offense in the NFL; all they can do is run the ball with Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor. Detroit will stack the line of scrimmage, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will be able to stop the run. The question is, which Lions team will show up? They limited Cadillac Williams to just 13 yards on 11 carries Sunday. However, they permitted 139 yards and two touchdowns to Thomas Jones two weeks ago. Considering that Detroit suffered a close 17-13 defeat at Tampa Bay, which it should have won, the Lions may not have the motivation to stop Lewis as he runs down their throat. If Steve Mariucci, Joey Harrington, or any other Lions complain about Sunday's atrocious officiating, they don't stand a chance against Baltimore.

The Ravens' defense is a fraud against elite, two-dimensional offenses. However, they will have no trouble stopping the Lions, who struggle to run and throw the ball. Kevin Jones has tallied just 60 rushing yards since Week 1, while Harrington maintains a quarterback rating of 57.3 and a completion percentage of 53.3. As long as Baltimore's offense can move the chains and keep its defense off the field, Detroit will have problems scoring.

The Ravens have a habit of feasting on weak opponents. They are 31-6 against losing teams since 2000.


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Ravens are 31-6 SU; 27-10 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2000 (18-28 SU vs. non-losing).
  • Line Movement: Lions -2 (open) to Lions -1 to Lions -1.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, Ravens Defense.
  • Sit Em: Ravens Receivers, Lions Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Ravens by 6. (Ravens +1). Money Pick. Under.




Bears (1-2) at Browns (1-2). Line: Browns by 2. Over-Under: 35.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Browns by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Browns by 3.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Bears: OUT: QB Rex Grossman, OLB Joe Odom. Browns: OUT: TE Kellen Winslow Jr. QUESTIONABLE: DE Orpheus Roye.

The Bears had a bye last week and moved into first place of the NFC North. Maybe they should take more weeks off.

If you thought Joey Harrington's statistics were bad, look at Kyle Orton's. His quarterback rating is 41.9 and his completion percentage is 52.3. At least he has an excuse: Orton is a fourth-round rookie learning on the job. The Bears will obviously take the ball out of Orton's hands and give Thomas Jones as many carries as possible. Jones is a talented runner -- he is averaging 4.5 yards per carry -- but Cleveland's defense, which surrenders just four yards per rush, will stack the line of scrimmage, forcing Orton to throw into a decent secondary. The Bears will probably struggle to eclipse the double-digit barrier in this contest.

Looks like Brian Billick was wrong about Trent Dilfer. What a surprise. The former Super Bowl signal caller has thrown for 822 yards and four touchdowns this season. Allowing Dilfer to maintain a 66.3 completion percentage is running back Reuben Droughns, who is averaging 3.8 yards per carry. However, Droughns will have problems running against one of the elite stop units in the NFL. Dilfer will be placed in many long-yardage situations, and will consequently succumb to the relentless pressure by Brian Urlacher and Adewale Ogunleye. The Browns will not have much success moving the chains in the early going, but they may score some points if the Bears are worn out from being on the field too long.

I would not bet this game. But, if you do, it would probably be a good idea to go with the better quarterback and the team from the better conference.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Browns are 7-3 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Line Movement: Browns -3 (open) to Browns -2.
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 35.
  • Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Both Offenses.

Prediction: Browns by 4. (Browns -2). Under.




Dolphins (2-1) at Bills (1-3). Line: Bills by 3. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Bills by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Bills by 3.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: RB Ricky Williams, OT Wade Smith, CB Will Poole. QUESTIONABLE: OLB Junior Seau. Bills: OUT: DT Ron Edwards, OLB Takeo Spikes. QUESTIONABLE: OT Mike Williams, S Coy Wire.

Who would have thought that Gus Frerotte and the Dolphins would be 2-1 by Week 5, while the Bills and their great defense would be struggling at 1-3?

But, that's precisely the problem. Buffalo's stop unit isn't as great as it was last year. Pat Williams, a monstrous defensive tackle, has defected for Minnesota, leaving the Bills with the NFL's 31st-ranked run defense. Ronnie Brown, who finally displayed why the Dolphins took him with the No. 2 overall pick by rushing for 132 yards against Carolina, should have a field day against the Bills, who surrender a whopping 4.9 yards per carry. Brown will stampede through Buffalo's front seven, opening up play-action opportunities for Gus Frerotte. The Dolphins will not score on every possession, but they should be able to lay at least 20 on the scoreboard.

While Buffalo is ranked next-to-last when it comes to defending opposing ground attacks, Miami is ranked first. Willis McGahee will be stuffed behind the line of scrimmage multiple times against a unit that restricts runners to just 2.7 yards per rush. J.P. Losman will consequently be placed in a plethora of unfavorable third-and-longs. Need I say more? The "rookie" signal caller who has a completion percentage of 47.9 will be baited into dozens of interceptions and fumbles. Miami's defense will make Losman seem even worse than he is, if that's possible.

No team has dominated this divisional series, but it's remarkable that the two squads haven't split since 1998. Whoever wins this matchup will probably win on Dec. 4 at Dolphins Stadium.

Friday Update: Eric Moulds and Lee Evans announced yesterday that Kelly Holcomb has been promoted to starting quarterback. The Bills will consequently score more points and keep this game extremely close. The total and margin of victory have been changed, but my pick remains the same.


The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • History: Bills have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • History: Dolphins and Bills haven't split since 1998.
  • Line Movement: Bills -2 (open) to Bills -3.
  • Total Movement: 33 (open) to 33 to 34.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 58 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael.
  • Sit Em: Bills Defense.

Prediction: Dolphins by 3. (Dolphins +3). Over.




Patriots (2-2) at Falcons (3-1). Line: Patriots by 2. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Patriots by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Falcons by 1 .

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: Patriots: OUT: RB Kevin Faulk, OT Matt Light, ILB Tedy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison. QUESTIONABLE: OT Brandon Gorin, DE Richard Seymour, CB Tyrone Poole, CB Randall Gay, CB Chad Scott, CB Duane Starks. Falcons: OUT: CB Kevin Mathis. PROBABLE: QB Michael Vick* (missed practice Wednesday and Thursday).

When the Patriots lost to the Panthers, the national media said the Patriots were done. When the Patriots beat the Steelers, the same pundits penciled them in for another Super Bowl appearance. Now, in the wake of the Patriots' 41-17 loss to San Diego, the same people are writing them off. Make up your mind.

Atlanta is believed to be this defensive juggernaut, but that is not the case. The team is ranked 28th against the run, surrendering a whopping 4.7 yards per carry. Corey Dillon gained nearly five yards per carry against San Diego, so he will fare even better against a weaker stop unit. Tom Brady will utilize play-action and orchestrate various screens, draws and other efficient plays that the Patriots are known for. New England will control the clock and wear down Atlanta's defense.

Michael Vick is probable, but it may not matter. You know Bill Belichick has already devised some scheme to defend the most electrifying signal caller in the NFL. The Patriots have the speed on defense to contain Vick. If the Falcons attempt to run the football, they will be stuffed at the line of scrimmage; New England yields 4.1 yards per carry, a statistic that ballooned thanks to LaDainian Tomlinson's performance on Sunday. Neither Warrick Dunn nor T.J. Duckett is in the same stratosphere as Tomlinson. Vick will have problems throwing the ball in long-yardage situations, which is never good against a team like New England.

Don't give up on the Patriots just yet. Belichick and Brady will obliterate the mysteriously favored Falcons, which will have the national pundits slapping themselves on the forehead again.

Sunday Morning Note: Michael Vick is out for this game, meaning Matt Schaub starts at quarterback for Atlanta.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Patriots are 14-6 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 59-16 as a starter (49-25 ATS).
  • Line Movement: Falcons -3 (open) to Patriots -1 to Patriots -2.
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 41.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, Patriots Defense Alge Crumpler.
  • Sit Em: Michael Vick, T.J. Duckett, Falcons Defense.

Prediction: Patriots by 20. (Patriots -2). Money Pick. Under.




Saints (2-2) at Packers (0-4). Line: Packers by 3. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Packers by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Packers by 4.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: Saints: OUT: TE Boo Williams, S Jay Bellamy, KR Michael Lewis. QUESTIONABLE: WR Joe Horn*, G Jermane Mayberry, G Kendyl Jacox, OLB James Allen, CB Fakhir Brown, S Mel Mitchell. Packers: OUT: WR Javon Walker, OLB Na'il Diggs, KR/WR Terrence Murphy. QUESTIONABLE: RB Ahman Green*, TE Bubba Franks*, OT Chad Clifton, C Mike Flanagan, S Earl Little.

Unless you're a Bears or Vikings fan, you have to feel sorry for Brett Favre right now. He's carrying a very bad team on his 35-year-old shoulders.

Favre's four-touchdown performance against the Panthers on Monday Night Football was phenomenal. The Packers scored 29 points, which could have been a greater figure if it wasn't for two very odd turnovers. Whether the starting running back is Ahman Green or Najeh Davenport -- Green is questionable -- he should have great success against New Orleans' woeful run defense, which surrenders 4.5 yards per carry. With play-action, screens and draws up his sleeve, Favre will set the Saints' secondary ablaze. After all, even a struggling Daunte Culpepper was 21-of-29 for 300 yards and three touchdowns against them.

Whoever watched the Monday night game knows that the Packers are surprisingly stout against the run -- they are ranked seventh and permit just 3.4 yards per rush. Deuce McAllister will have problems advancing the ball, placing the shaky and unreliable Aaron Brooks in long-yardage situations. Is there any doubt that Brooks will commit at least two turnovers? The Saints will move the chains on occasion, but they will make a massive amount of errors, which is what they are known for.

The Packers are 0-4 and desperately need a win. They cannot afford to go 0-5. Expect a performance for the ages by Green Bay.


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Zero Trend: 0-4 teams are 9-4 ATS since 2000.
  • Packers are 18-8 ATS after Monday Night Football the previous 26 instances.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind, 10 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Brett Favre, Donald Driver.
  • Sit Em: Deuce McAllister, Saints Defense.

Prediction: Packers by 17. (Packers -3). Double Money Pick. Over.




Seahawks (2-2) at Rams (2-2). Line: Rams by 3. Over-Under: 49.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Rams by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Rams by 3.

The Game. Edge: Rams.
Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: WR Darrell Jackson*, WR Bobby Engram. Rams: OUT: TE Roland Williams, CB Jerametrius Butler. DOUBTFUL: WR Isaac Bruce*. QUESTIONABLE: TE Brandon Manumaleuna, OT Rex Tucker.

Is it just me, or are these two teams very similar? Both have a great quarterbacks who throw to great receivers. Both have physical running backs. Both have awful stop units. Both struggle on the road. Both have coaches who find some way to lose.

But, the Rams have had Seattle's number, sweeping them in three contests last year. The Seahawks struggle against St. Louis because they cannot defend the pass. They have the starting cornerbacks -- Andre Dyson and Marcus Trufant -- to stick with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. However, it's St. Louis' Nos. 3, 4 and 5 receivers that usually burn the Seahawks' secondary. How are Kelly Herndon, Jordan Babineaux and Jimmy Williams supposed to stick Kevin Curtis, Shaun McDonald and Dane Looker? They can't. The Rams should be able to score at will, especially on their carpet, where they are very lethal.

Seattle's defense will probably surrender 30 or more points, meaning the offense will also need to light up the scoreboard. The Rams cannot stop the run, but Mike Holmgren could be forced to abandon it once St. Louis accumulates a double-digit lead. Matt Hasselbeck will be coaxed into throwing the ball on nearly every down, meaning he will be sacked multiple times by Leonard Little. The Seahawks will be able to score a considerable amount of points in this contest, but not enough to win.

It takes a strong-willed team to shatter domination. Seattle neither has the will nor the heart to do that. The Rams win their fifth consecutive over the Seahawks.


The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • History: Rams have won the last 4 meetings.
  • Double Road Alert: Mike Holmgren is 3-1 ATS on the road following a road loss since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 48 (open) to 48 to 49 to 49.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Darrell Jackson, Bobby Engram, Rams Offense.
  • Sit Em: Shaun Alexander, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Rams by 7. (Rams -3). Bonus Double Money Pick. Over.




Buccaneers (4-0) at Jets (1-3). Line: Buccaneers by 3. Over-Under: 31.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Buccaneers by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Buccaneers by 7.

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
Injuries: Buccaneers: DOUBTFUL: RB Cadillac Williams*. QUESTIONABLE: WR Michael Clayton*, S Jermaine Phillips. Jets: OUT: QB Chad Pennington, QB Jay Fiedler. QUESTIONABLE: OLB Eric Barton.

Does anyone else see something wrong with this point spread? Buccaneers by three? Is Chad Pennington completely healthy again? Is Jay Fiedler out of his cast?

No, of course not. The Jets will be asked to move the chains against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Sound familiar? They were confronted with that task against Baltimore on Sunday, and only scored three points. Curtis Martin rushed for just 30 yards, because the Ravens stacked the line of scrimmage. The Buccaneers will do the same, coaxing the fossilized Vinny Testaverde, who was named the starter on Wednesday, to beat them. I don't see that happening.

The line on this contest is probably short because of Cadillac Williams' injury. Tampa Bay's offense sputtered against Detroit once Cadillac left the game. However, it should be noted that Michael Pittman is a decent back. If Cadillac doesn't play -- he's questionable -- Pittman can easily wear down New York's defense, which figures to be on the field for the majority of the game. Once Pittman starts ripping off five- and six-yard gains, Brian Griese will be able to play-action and move the chains with ease.

Tampa Bay will be completely focused for this contest. The team will likely atone for nearly losing to Detroit. Plus, the Buccaneers have nothing to look forward to; they play Miami next week.


The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Buccaneers are 3-12 ATS on the road after a win under Jon Gruden.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Rain, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Joey Galloway, Buccaneers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Jets Offense.

Prediction: Buccaneers by 10. (Buccaneers -3). Under.




Titans (1-3) at Texans (0-3). Line: Texans by 3. Over-Under: 40.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Titans by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Titans by 2.

The Game. Edge: Titans.
Injuries: Titans: OUT: RB Travis Henry. QUESTIONABLE: WR Drew Bennett*, TE Ben Troupe, TE Erron Kinney, DE Travis Laboy, DT Albert Haynesworth, S Vincent Fuller, KR Courtney Roby. Texans: OUT: DE Gary Walker, OLB Jason Babin.

Once the Texans establish themselves as a solid team, this will become a fierce rivalry, because the Titans were formerly known the Houston Oilers.

However, that could take a while. Houston will not make the playoffs because they have been poorly constructed by general manager Charley Casserly. In their fourth year of existence, the Texans still do not have an ounce of talent on their offensive line. David Carr suffers from Casserly's incompetence, as he has been sacked 20 times in just three games. He's on pace to be sacked 106 times this year. To avoid this, look for Dom Capers to give Domanick Davis as many carries as possible. Davis, who rushed for 81 yards on 19 carries against the Bengals, should be able to trample a stop unit ranked 24th against the run. Davis' scampers should open up play-action opportunities for Carr. The Titans' secondary is terrible, and they have no one to match up with Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney.

Like the Titans, the Texans also struggle against opposing rushers; they surrender 4.4 yards per carry. Chris Brown could come close to eclipsing the 100-yard plateau, which will only assist Steve McNair. The key to a Houston victory will be preventing Tennessee from converting third downs; the Titans excel in that facet of the game. McNair should be able to torch the Texans' secondary, which has not displayed any ability to stop the pass this season. Even J.P. Losman looked like a real quarterback against them.

Houston is 0-3 and needs a win, but so do the 1-3 Titans. Why are the Texans favored? Tennessee is the better team, while the home favorite has yet to score more than 10 points in a game this season. In a contest that will probably be decided by a field goal, go with the 3-point underdog.


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • History: Texans have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Texans are 14-3 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
  • Line Movement: Texans -1 (open) to Texans -2 to Texans -3.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Sunny, 84 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Steve McNair, Chris Brown, Titans Defense, Domanick Davis, Andre Johnson.
  • Sit Em: Texans Defense.

Prediction: Titans by 3. (Titans +3). Under.




Colts (4-0) at 49ers (1-3). Line: Colts by 15. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Colts by 9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Colts by 10.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Colts: OUT: CB Donald Strickland. DOUBTFUL: RB James Mungro, S Joseph Jefferson. QUESTIONABLE: RB Dominic Rhodes, OLB David Thornton. 49ers: OUT: TE Eric Johnson, OLB James Winborn, CB Ahmed Plummer, CB Mike Rumph. DOUBTFUL: OT Jonas Jennings. QUESTIONABLE: WR Arnaz Battle, OLB Julian Peterson, CB Willie Middlebrooks.

The NFL's best versus the NFL's worst. This should be exciting.

Do you want me to tell you that the Colts will have trouble scoring against San Francisco? I'm not insane. Think about it this way: The 49ers surrendered 31 points to Josh McCown and the Arizona Cardinals. Can Indianapolis be the first team in NFL history to score 100 points? With cornerbacks Ahmed Plummer and Mike Rumph injured, the vaunted duo of Willie Middlebrooks and Shawntae Spencer will have to cover Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Uh oh.

If the 49ers want any chance to win this game, they need to establish the run with Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore. Indianapolis cannot stop the run -- the team is ranked 23rd in that category. However, running the ball will be tough once San Francisco is down by 10, 17, 24, 1,402 points. Alex Smith, who was named the starter on Tuesday, will be throwing often, meaning Dwight Freeney will be collecting sacks by the dozen.

San Francisco is clearly outmatched. How can they cover, even if the spread is 14? Well, the Colts could be taking this game lightly, considering they have a Monday night affair with the Rams next week. Plus, you never bet against double-digit home underdog, especially since it is coming off an embarrassing loss that two countries witnessed. I'd just stay away from this contest all together.


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Sandwich Situation: COLTS play 49ers after beating rival Titans and before Monday Night Football vs. Rams.
  • Double Digit Home Dog: Double digit home underdogs are 42-29 ATS since 1992.
  • Line Movement: Colts -12 (open) to Colts -13 to Colts -14 to Colts -14 to Colts -15 to Colts -15.
  • Total Movement: 48 (open) to 47 to 46.
  • Weather: Sunny, 68 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Colts Offense and Defense, Brandon Lloyd.
  • Sit Em: 49ers Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Colts by 11. (49ers +15). Under.




Panthers (2-2) at Cardinals (1-3). Line: Panthers by 2. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Panthers by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Panthers by 3.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Panthers: OUT: DT Kris Jenkins. QUESTIONABLE: CB Chris Gamble, KR Rod Smart. Cardinals: OUT: QB Kurt Warner, FB James Hodgins, OT Oliver Ross, DT Russell Davis, CB Antrel Rolle. QUESTIONABLE: CB David Macklin, CB Raymond Walls.

When the Panthers were leading 32-13 on Monday night, they seemed like a team poised to challenge the Eagles in the NFC Championship. At 32-29, they looked like a weak squad hanging on for their lives.

Although Carolina's defense is still extremely stout against the run -- the team permits just 3.3 yards per carry -- its inability to stop the pass looks like it will be a problem. Brett Favre threw for 303 yards, exposing a shaky secondary. In comes Josh McCown, who finally displayed his precise passing ability that I was looking for at the start of the 2004 season. McCown embarrassed the 49ers defensive backs, as the Sam Houston State product threw for 385 yards in Mexico City. With the ability of receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, as well as the tutelage he receives from Kurt Warner, McCown should be able to piece together a second-consecutive outstanding performance.

Unlike the Panthers, the Cardinals cannot defend the run; they are ranked 30th in the NFL and allow 4.8 yards per rush. Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster will easily trample Arizona's offensive front, setting up play-action for Jake Delhomme. The Cardinals' secondary just isn't healthy enough to contain Carolina's aerial attack -- Antrel Rolle is out for the year, while David Macklin is questionable. If the latter cannot play, Raymond Walls and Eric Green will have to stick Steve Smith and Keary Colbert.

All of the numbers and trends say to take the home-underdog Cardinals. Carolina is coming off a Monday Night victory, while Sun Devil Stadium has been a snakepit for favored teams the past few years (see trends below). However, John Fox will read his team the riot act for permitting the Packers to nearly come back from a 16-point deficit. The Panthers also have nothing to look forward to; they play Detroit next week. This is a tough game to pick.


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Post Monday Night Syndrome: Teams coming off a Monday night victory are 12-20 ATS the following week since 2003.
  • Cardinals are 9-4 ATS as a home underdog since 2003.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -3 (open) to Panthers -2.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 43.
  • Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 84 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Josh McCown, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin.
  • Sit Em: Marcel Shipp, J.J. Arrington, Cardinals Defense.

Prediction: Panthers by 4. (Panthers -2). Over.




Eagles (3-1) at Cowboys (2-2). Line: Eagles by 3. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Eagles by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Eagles by 4.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: Eagles: OUT: RB Correll Buckhalter, WR Todd Pinkston, DE Jerome McDougle, DT Paul Grasmanis, K David Akers, KR J.R. Reed. DOUBTFUL: DT Darwin Walker. QUESTIONABLE: MLB Jeremiah Trotter, S Brian Dawkins. Cowboys: OUT: OT Jacob Rogers.

Surprised by the short three-point spread? Don't be -- the Eagles are coming off a hard-fought, come-from-behind victory at Arrowhead, and must play another road game at Dallas. This will not be a blowout.

However, Terrell Owens could have another outstanding performance, like the one he had at Texas Stadium last year. He caught six passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns in the Eagles' impressive 49-21 victory. The problem is that the Cowboys have no one who can even come close to matching up with Owens. With all eyes focused on the flamboyant receiver, look for Brian Westbrook and L.J. Smith to have monstrous games. Dallas surrenders 4.4 yards per rush, meaning Westbrook could have an impressive day on the ground -- that is if Andy Reid decides to actually call a running play.

Philadelphia doesn't have the best run defense in the NFL, but they're good enough -- the Eagles are ranked 13th and yield just 3.7 yards per rush. Bill Parcells will look to establish Julius Jones, who will find it tough to gain any amount of significant yardage. Drew Bledsoe will be forced to convert a plethora of third-and-longs, which could be a problem, given Philadelphia's excellent pass rush and secondary. Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson will be blanketed by Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard, while the immobile Bledsoe will somehow have to dodge Jevon Kearse. The Pro Bowl defensive end will be going against rookie right tackle Rob Petitti in what could be the mismatch of the century.

The Eagles own all of the advantages, but this is Dallas' early-season Super Bowl. The Cowboys will keep this game close, but will ultimately lose.


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Eagles have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Eagles are 30-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 13-4 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -3 (open) to Eagles -3.
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 80 degrees. Light wind, 10 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Terrell Owens, L.J. Smith, Eagles Defense.
  • Sit Em: Cowboys Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Eagles by 10. (Eagles -3). Over.




Redskins (3-0) at Broncos (3-1). Line: Broncos by 6. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Broncos by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Broncos by 5.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: Redskins: OUT: DT Brandon Noble. QUESTIONABLE: CB Walt Harris, S Sean Taylor, S Pierson Prioleau, K John Hall. Broncos: QUESTIONABLE: CB Champ Bailey.

The Redskins have won their three games by a combined six points. Do I smell a 3-0 fraud?

Washington's modus operandi is ramming Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts down the throat of its opponent. It worked against Seattle, but don't count on it happening at Mile High. The Broncos are ranked third against the run, as they yield just 3.1 yards per rush. With the Redskins' running game stuck in the Invesco mud, Mark Brunell will be asked to convert a plethora of third-and-longs. That may seem like an improbable challenge for a 35-year-old quarterback, but Brunell has excelled in long-yardage situations this season. In fact, the Redskins convert nearly 50 percent of their third downs. If Champ Bailey and Darrent Williams are available -- both are questionable -- Brunell may not have as much luck in Denver.

Although they only allow 3.5 yards per rush, the Redskins displayed a hint of sluggishness against the run against the Seahawks. Shaun Alexander was able to gain 4.9 yards a pop on the ground. If this lingers, Washington will have tons of trouble stopping Denver's offense. If the Broncos can run the ball effectively, Jake Plummer is able to utilize his patented play-action bootlegs. Once Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell establish themselves on the ground, that's precisely what Plummer will do.

Washington is set up to get blown out. They are coming off an emotional overtime victory to play one of the NFL's elite in altitude. There is a slight chance that the Broncos might be looking past this game, because they play the Patriots next week. However, given that the Redskins are undefeated, Denver should be completely focused.


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 34-64 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; REDSKINS won in overtime.
  • Broncos are 6-3 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Broncos are 1-6 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
  • Line Movement: Broncos -7 (open) to Broncos -6 to Broncos -7 to Broncos -6.
  • Total Movement: 34 (open) to 35 to 34.
  • Weather: Showers, 69 degrees. Light wind, 10 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Plummer, Mike Anderson, Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie.
  • Sit Em: Clinton Portis, Redskins Defense.

Prediction: Broncos by 14. (Broncos -6). Money Pick. Under.




Bengals (4-0) at Jaguars (2-2). Line: Jaguars by 3. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Jaguars by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Jaguars by 1.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Injuries: Bengals: OUT: C Larry Moore, S Kim Herring. QUESTIONABLE: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh*, WR Kelley Washington, C Rich Braham, S Madieu Williams. Jaguars: OUT: S Donovin Darius.

The Bengals might be 4-0, but they have beaten up on Cleveland, playing its first game under a new head coach, struggling Minnesota, quarterback-less Chicago and woeful Houston. This is Cincinnati's first test, and I'm sure Marvin Lewis is letting his team know about it.

Lewis needs his team to establish the run if he wants to start this promising season 5-0. Normally, that would be a problem against the Jaguars, who are usually very stout against opposing ground attacks. However, Jacksonville has had problems in that category, as they find themselves ranked 20th. They clearly miss safety Donovin Darius, one of the best run-supporting safeties in the NFL. Rudi Johnson will easily burst through wide-open running lanes, allowing Carson Palmer to play-action into a shaky secondary. After this game, Chad Johnson will be able to put a check in the "no" column beside Rashean Mathis' name.

While Jacksonville lacks proficiency against the run, Cincinnati is actually much worse. The Bengals are ranked 29th, surrendering 4.7 yards per carry. But, even with that said, Fred Taylor could have problems finding space to gain yardage. The Jaguars are having problems with their offensive line, which is why Taylor is only charging for 3.3 yards per rush. If Jacksonville cannot establish a running game, which looks like that will be the case, Byron Leftwich could be victim to a few turnovers, given that the Bengals have already registered 12 interceptions on the year.

Can the Bengals actually commence this campaign with a 5-0 mark? Lewis is doing an incredible job in Cincinnati.


The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 43-32 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001. (JAGUARS)
  • Jaguars are 4-7 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Jaguars -3 (open) to Jaguars -2 to Jaguars -3.
  • Total Movement: 38 (open) to 37 to 37.
  • Weather: Showers, 70 degrees. Light wind, 9 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Bengals Offense.
  • Sit Em: Fred Taylor, Jaguars Defense.

Prediction: Bengals by 6. (Bengals +3). Under.




Steelers (2-1) at Chargers (2-2). Line: Chargers by 3. Over-Under: 45.
Monday, 9:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Chargers by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Chargers by 3.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Steelers: OUT: OLB Clark Haggans. QUESTIONABLE: WR Hines Ward*, OLB Joey Porter, CB Willie Williams. Chargers: OUT: G Toniu Fonoti, OLB Shawne Merriman. QUESTIONABLE: OLB Steve Foley, S Bhawoh Jue, KR Darren Sproles.

Kudos to the NFL scheduler who planned for this game appear on Monday Night Football. It should be interesting to see if the Chargers can continue their rampage after ripping through the Giants and Patriots.

There's no mystery about the Steelers' game plan: They will continuously run the football as long as they can. After churning out just 55 rushing yards against New England, Willie Parker will once again reach the 100-yard rushing plateau. The Chargers surrender 3.9 yards per carry, but Corey Dillon was able to gain 4.6 on Sunday. Pittsburgh's offensive line should be able to push around San Diego nose guards Jacques Cesaire and Igor Olahansky. San Diego will need to bring one of its safeties into the box, which will allow Ben Roethlisberger to easily pick apart a very young secondary. The Steelers will be able to sustain extremely long drives that will chew away the clock and the hopes of the Chargers.

LaDainian Tomlinson is unstoppable. At least he appears that way. He rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns against New England, just one week after gaining 192 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants. However, running against the Steelers is a different story; Pittsburgh's front seven is an impenetrable wall, as the team permits just 3.5 yards per carry. Tomlinson will charge for first downs on occasion, but he will be bottled up at the line of scrimmage for the most part. Drew Brees will have some success against the Steelers' beleaguered secondary. But, Brees will be forced to operate in a massive amount of long-yardage situations, so expect a few turnovers from the Chargers' signal caller.

The Steelers are lucky they didn't play last week; they can escape a possible New England hangover and concentrate on improving their record to 3-1.


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Steelers are 17-2 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Steelers are 15-6 ATS on Monday Night Football the previous 21 instances.
  • Line Movement: Chargers -3 (open) to Chargers -3.
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 44 to 44 to 44 to 45.
  • Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind, 6 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Willie Parker, Hines Ward.
  • Sit Em: Chargers Defense.

Prediction: Steelers by 9. (Steelers +3). Over.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 1-3
Eagles: 1-3
Giants: 4-0
Redskins: 2-1

Bears: 3-0
Lions: 2-1
Packers: 3-1
Vikings: 2-2

Buccaneers: 2-2
Falcons: 3-1
Panthers: 3-1
Saints: 3-1

49ers: 1-3
Cardinals: 1-3
Rams: 3-1
Seahawks: 3-1

Bills: 1-3
Dolphins: 2-1
Jets: 3-1
Patriots: 2-2

Bengals: 4-0
Browns: 3-0
Ravens: 2-1
Steelers: 2-1

Colts: 4-0
Jaguars: 3-1
Texans: 1-2
Titans: 3-1

Broncos: 1-2
Chargers: 1-2
Chiefs: 2-2
Raiders: 3-1

Divisional Games: 7-7
Trend Edge: 13-7
Game Edge: 4-8
Game & Trend Edge: 0-2


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 1-4 (-$1,010)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2014): 2-0 (+$1,000)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2014): 9-5 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2014): -$110

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-1, 66.7% (+$1,070)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (+$145)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-26, 55.2% (+$800)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 6-9-1, 40.0% (-$1,260)
2014 Season Over-Under: 89-69-2, 56.4% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$810

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,103-1,926-116, 52.2% (+$12,560)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 676-609-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 282-243-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,630-1,606-48 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 4-6
Bears: 5-5
Bucs: 8-2
49ers: 3-6
Eagles: 6-4
Lions: 3-6
Falcons: 5-5
Cardinals: 5-5
Giants: 3-7
Packers: 7-2
Panthers: 5-6
Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 7-3
Vikings: 8-2
Saints: 4-5
Seahawks: 4-6
Bills: 4-6
Bengals: 4-7
Colts: 5-5
Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 6-3
Browns: 5-3
Jaguars: 5-5
Chargers: 3-7
Jets: 6-4
Ravens: 4-5
Texans: 5-5
Chiefs: 7-2
Patriots: 5-5
Steelers: 6-5
Titans: 5-3
Raiders: 3-7
Divisional: 21-22 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 12-18 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-28 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 22-12 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 6-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
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2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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