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NFL Weekly Predictions
Week 19, 2007



I don't know what to say. I got the Buccaneers-Giants contest wrong, but I had the other three games covered going into the fourth quarter. The Jaguars blew a 28-10 lead and came up one yard short of a touchdown at the end of the game. The Redskins and Titans, meanwhile, both missed chip-shot field goals wide left, which led to their non-covers. Tennessee was especially frustrating; Rob Bironas' errant kick allowed the Chargers (-10) to win by 11. Like the Jaguars, I lost that game by a point. Ugh. At least I'm doing better with my totals. If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Seattle Seahawks (11-6) at Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 43.

Walt's Projected Line: Packers -7.
Saturday, 4:30 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: SEAHAWKS: OUT: DT Marcus Tubbs. PACKERS: OUT: RB DeShawn Wynn, S Nick Collins.

Let's take our weekly look at how Vegas fared. The books pretty much came out a bit up after Saturday. A slim majority of the public had the Redskins, while there were bets all over the place for the Jaguars contest (-1, -1.5, -2, -2.5...) However, Vegas suffered a huge blow when the Titans botched a chip-shot field goal and consequently failed to cover, losing by 11 as 10-point underdogs. The casinos continued to suffer on Monday night when LSU easily dispatched Ohio State. Thankfully for them, they made a bit back on the NBA Sucker Bet of the Year, as the Golden State Warriors covered -3 over the Spurs.

Speaking of LSU over Ohio State, let me harp about the Bowl Cash Series for a bit. How ridiculous is it that you can make a solid case for five national champions this year? LSU, USC, Georgia, Kansas and West Virginia could all be voted No. 1. For the third consecutive year, I didn't watch a single bowl game, and I'm proud of that (I watched LSU-Ohio State on tape delay.) When a sport's major story is how corrupt its postseason is, something needs to happen. I also found it hilarious that 610 WIP, one of the most popular sports-talk radio stations in America, which happens to be based in Philadelphia, didn't receive a single call about the Final Postseason Exhibition Match between LSU and Ohio State last night.

But back to my original point. Vegas lost this weekend, meaning I did too, as I try my hardest to align myself with it. I actually wanted to vomit when LaDainian Tomlinson scored the final touchdown of the game. The Titans were clearly the right side, but my 5-Unit play was wiped out because of a botched 35-yard-field goal by one of the league's most accurate kickers, and a fumble inside San Diego's 5-yard line in the second quarter. Ugh.

Actually, the same thing happened in the Redskins contest, so maybe I have to get on my knees and pray for better luck this weekend.

Wow, four paragraphs completed, and I haven't gotten to this game yet. I might as well let you know whom I'm siding with off the bat. I like the Seahawks. This Packers squad has absolutely no playoff experience, save for Brett Favre of course. Young teams always react the same way as postseason favorites; it takes them a while to get their first victory. Just look at the Bears - they had to wait three years to move past their opening contest. Same goes for the Chargers. And even these Seahawks struggled until they finally beat the Redskins in 2005.

Even if the Packers manage to win this game - which is feasible because Favre has been here before - I can't see it being a blowout. Even if they're down, the Seahawks have the aerial attack for a backdoor cover. Other than a possible hand injury - which is the only thing keeping me from making this a huge play - Matt Hasselbeck has no reason to struggle at Lambeau. He's been to the Super Bowl before. And his offensive line, which did an exceptional job against the Redskins' defensive unit, should be able to neutralize Aaron Kampman, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Green Bay's massive front seven.

The Seahawks' defense, meanwhile, is one of the best and most underrated in the league. They had 45 sacks and 20 interceptions on the year, as it's hard to find any holes on their stop unit. Favre and his weapons will have to be at their absolute best just to win this game. And given how young those weapons are, that might just be too much to ask.

Like I said, I'm taking Seattle and the points. The underdog has a great shot at winning this game straight up, and I'm going to make it a money-line prop play. I know the Packers had a week off, but that generally hasn't been the best thing in the world over the years. Check the Trends section if you don't believe me.


The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
The Seahawks are a veteran team with lots of experience. Most of these Packers don't have a playoff victory. The first one seldom comes easily.


The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
I think the public will be split on this one. The line seems kind of high, but people love Brett Favre.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (195,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Worst Bye: Playoff teams with byes are 5-11 ATS since 2003 (2-6 since 2005).
  • Seahawks are 6-11 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Packers are 11-7 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Packers -9.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: Flurries, 27 degrees. Light wind.


    Prediction: Packers 30, Seahawks 27
    Seahawks +7.5 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 43 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Packers 42, Seahawks 20.



    Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) at New England Patriots (16-0)
    Line: Patriots by 13. Total: 49.5.

    Walt's Projected Line: Patriots -13.
    Saturday, 8:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.
    Injuries: JAGUARS: OUT: MLB Mike Peterson. PATRIOTS: OUT: LB Rosevelt Colvin.

    I hate gym locker rooms. I'm sure this is the case in everyone's gym, but the older people love walking around naked. I don't do that; I shower in my bathing suit if I go swimming. If that makes me as weird as the Never Nude guy in Arrested Development, so be it. But the majority of the people at my gym are old men. So, if you ever go to the JCC in Northeast Philadelphia, be warned. There are 70-year-old naked men running around the locker room. And if that's your thing, I hope you don't come to my gym.

    Anyway, I bring up my locker room because I was getting dressed the other day when something caught my attention. This 90-year-old man, who resembled a skeleton with the last bit of flesh hanging on to the bones for dear life, was actually drying himself off with newspapers. He then took another newspaper out of his bag, unrolled it, and grabbed a pair of socks from within it. Scratch that - there are 70-year-old naked bums running around the locker room. Yeeesh.

    I actually should have used that lead for the Packers game, joking around that if Brett Favre loses to Seattle, he could fit right in with these old geezers. Damn it.

    No old quarterbacks here. Just two of the best the league has to offer. David Garrard is one of the best game managers I've seen in a long time. I actually called him a "game engineer" last week because he doesn't make any mistakes. When his team's life was on the line, he scrambled for 32 yards on a crucial 4th-and-2 with about two minutes remaining, setting up the decisive chip-shot field goal.

    That said, Garrard may have his hands full here. He'll have to score on almost every possession and control the clock to keep Tom Brady off the field. I don't know if Jacksonville's offense is designed to do the former. Now, you could argue that if Kyle Boller, Adam Joshua Feeley and Eli Manning could do it, Garrard should be able to as well. The problem with that belief is that the Patriots didn't give it their best effort against Baltimore and Philadelphia. And as for Manning, he couldn't do anything once New England started blitzing him. The Patriots will definitely be completely focused for a 12-5 Jaguars squad that just went into Heinz Field and knocked off the Steelers.

    I say that Garrard will have to throw touchdowns on nearly every drive because Jacksonville won't be able to contain Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and company. With Mike Peterson out, the Jaguars couldn't contain Pittsburgh's short passing game, as Ben Roethlisberger dissected them for 19 points in a 10-minute span in the second half. Brady, as he did in the 2005 playoffs against this very same squad, will eat Jacksonville alive.

    I know I'm going against the "Worst Buy" rule (as opposed to Best Buy... Get it? Zing!) but if any team knows how to maintain its focus and intensity, it's the Patriots. And I really like the fact that despite slight money on the Jaguars, this line has risen from -11.5 to -13.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge.


    The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
    I could see 50-50 action here as well.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 60% (186,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Worst Bye: Playoff teams with byes are 5-11 ATS since 2003 (2-6 since 2005).
  • Jaguars are 9-3 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Patriots are 38-25 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Patriots are 16-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Tom Brady is 97-26 as a starter (76-45 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 12-2 in the playoffs (8-6 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -11.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: Rain, 38 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.


    Prediction: Patriots 34, Jaguars 17
    Patriots -13 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 49.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Patriots 31, Jaguars 20.



    San Diego Chargers (12-5) at Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
    Line: Colts by 10. Total: 46.

    Walt's Projected Line: Colts -8.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: CHARGERS: QUESTIONABLE: TE Antonio Gates*. COLTS: OUT: DE Dwight Freeney, DT Anthony McFarland, OLB Rob Morris.

    It's time for more grammar lessons from Emmitt Smith! If you're on trial for murder, use some of these quotes! You'll get shipped off to a mental institution instead of prison or the chair!

    1. " Not only does he have the NFC East record for touchdowns, but also the team record." (Commentary: Is it possible to have a divisional record that's not a team record? It's like saying, "Not only does Emmitt Smith have the World Record for grammatical errors per TV show, he also has the record for most grammatical errors per TV show in his family." More evidence that Emmitt is ahead of our time.)
    2. "Norv Turner have a lot of experience in the playoff." (Commentary: When Emmitt uttered that statement, Norv Turner's postseason record was 1-1. Good thing we're talking about the playoff here, and not the playoffs.)
    3. "I love those style of play that the Tennessee Titans bring to the game." (Commentary: What a coincidence! I love those grammatical error that Emmitt bring to the Sunday NFL Countdown!)

    I received a message pertaining to this game from one of the users on my forum, Urinal Mint. He asked whom I was siding with in this contest, hinting that he favored the Colts because of "Peyton Manning vs. San Diego D over Philip Rivers vs. Indianapolis D." When you put it like that, selecting a winner here seems like a no-brainer. I'm going to tell you why it's not.

    I'd like to preface this by saying Peyton Manning is one of the elite quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. He's broken records, won a Super Bowl and even recorded more commercials than any other player in league history (I don't have statistical evidence to back this one up, but it's kind of obvious.) However, I'd like to delve into his playoff career.

    For years, Manning was harshly criticized by almost everyone in the media, including myself, for coming up small in the postseason. He silenced those critics last winter, but even though you can't take the Lombardi Trophy away from him, I'm still skeptical regarding his ability to perform up to his regular-season ability in what Emmitt would call the "playoff."

    In the wildcard round against the Chiefs 12 months ago, Manning tossed three picks as his squad was up just 16-8 going into the fourth quarter. The ensuing week, Manning was 15-of-30 for 170 yards, no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions at Baltimore. He continued to struggle against New England until he was finally able to take advantage of a gassed Patriots defense that received no help at all from an offense that dropped a pass every other play. Manning then went on to have a respectable, yet unspectacular Super Bowl, a victory keyed by Rex Grossman's three turnovers.

    Going even further, Manning has never been successful against the 3-4. His struggles against New England are well-documented. The Steelers knocked him out of the playoffs in 2005. And the Chargers always seem to have his number, including in Week 10, when they picked him off a whopping six times.

    We saw that the Titans-Chargers rematch was an exact duplicate of the original tilt. I think the same thing might happen this Sunday that occurred on Nov. 11. Manning will have problems against the pressure Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips will apply, permitting an opportunistic secondary to notch an interception or two. Granted, Marvin Harrison is back, but he's making his first start. I doubt he'll be as effective as the Colts hope he'll be. Meanwhile, LaDainian Tomlinson will once again compile 100 or more total yards from scrimmage.

    Once San Diego has a seemingly comfortable third-quarter lead, Manning will go on a tear. Two touchdowns later, the visitor will be hanging on for dear life. It'll once again come down to an Adam Vinatieri field goal. And the difference will be that the most clutch kicker in NFL history will nail the game-winner.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge here.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
    People will always love the Colts.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 73% (271,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Worst Bye: Playoff teams with byes are 5-11 ATS since 2003 (2-6 since 2005).
  • Peyton Manning is 2-6 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).
  • Opening Line: Colts -9.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Prediction: Colts 24, Chargers 22
    Chargers +10 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 46 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Chargers 28, Colts 24.



    New York Giants (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
    Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 47.

    Walt's Projected Line: Cowboys -7.
    Sunday, 4:30 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    Injuries: GIANTS: OUT: RB Derrick Ward, TE Jeremy Shockey. COWBOYS: OUT: NT Jason Ferguson. QUESTIONABLE: WR Terrell Owens*

    Before I discuss game, take a look at my Week 19 Look-Alike Pictures featuring Brittany Spears and Barney from the Simpsons. Also, you can still compete against me and others by picking football games at the Picking Forum. You'll be able to pick every game starting Wednesday afternoon, and you can post comments for each contest as well. No prizes, but you do get bragging rights.

    If I were to tell you that I have more confidence in Eli Manning than Tony Romo, would you call a mental hospital and have me instiutionalized? In that case, at least let me say goodbye to my friends and family before you ship me off to a white-padded room.

    In Week 14, when I went 3-13 or something, I continuously bashed myself on this picks page and called myself "Eli Manning." Maybe I should have stated that I'm Romo instead; I don't know what happens to him, but he just can't finish strong. Last year, after a hot start, he threw eight interceptions to just six touchdowns, while fumbling seven times the last five games of the regular season. This year, beginning at Week 15, he's just 48-of-94, 557 yards, one touchdown, five picks and three fumbles. Well, at least he has that Chicken of the Sea broad by his side.

    Manning, on the other hand, has played extremely well the past two weeks. He tossed four touchdowns against the Patriots, and was 20-of-27 for 185 yards and two scores at Tampa Bay last Sunday, finally winning his first playoff game. It seems as though Manning has turned the corner; he looks more confident and emotional on the field. Meanwhile, Romo's struggles are extremely paramount, magnified by the loss of Terrell Owens, who may not be 100 percent for this contest.

    I think it's important to look at how well teams are playing going into the postseason. The Giants, who finished with a strong effort against New England, were rewarded with a victory over Tampa Bay, who sat its starters the final six quarters of the year. New York, confident in its ability to claim double revenge against the Cowboys, should be able to give the host all it can handle. Dallas lost to the Eagles; were dominated by the Redskins; and barely beat the Panthers the last three weeks of the regular season.

    As I mentioned in the Packers-Seahawks write-up, it takes teams with no playoff experience a while to get over the hump. We saw it with the Bears and Seahawks a few years ago. The Chargers were finally able to do it last Sunday. And now the Cowboys must attempt to win their first postseason tilt. If that's the case, how are they going to cover 7.5, when I'm not even sure if they're going to win straight up?

    I love the Giants here. In fact, this is my upset pick. I'll take experience over youth; side with a squad that dominates its opponents on the road; and fade another team that will be hindered by its first-round bye (see the trends section.)


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    This Cowboys squad has yet to win a postseason game. They tanked the end of the regular season, so it seems like the Giants are the more confident squad.


    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    Not sure where the public is going here... The Cowboys are a public team but they faded down the stretch.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 82% (246,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • History: Cowboys have won the last 3 meetings.
  • Top Cat Trend: NFC No. 1 seeds are 15-4 ATS the previous 19 seasons in their first playoff game.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 53-44 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Tom Coughlin 1-0).
  • Worst Bye: Playoff teams with byes are 5-11 ATS since 2003 (2-6 since 2005).
  • Giants are 13-4 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.


    Prediction: Giants 20, Cowboys 13
    Giants +7 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
    Under 47 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Giants 21, Cowboys 17.


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Live Dog: Seahawks +305 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Live Dog: Giants +260 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$520
  • First-Half Line: Chargers +6.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
  • First-Half Line: Giants +4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch +500 - Lynch will be the opening-day starter for the Bills and will have the luxury of running behind a huge offensive line. Running backs make the quickest transition into the NFL, and Lynch is the only rookie who's guaranteed a starting gig. (1 Unit)
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Field +700 - James Jones? Jacoby Jones? Who knows, Marques Colston came out of nowhere last year. (1 Unit)
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jamaal Anderson +1400 - Unlike Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson will be starting on Day 1. With teams concerned about John Abraham, Anderson seems like he could be poised for a double digit-sack campaign. (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Patriots 5/2 - Not great odds, but they'll get the job done. (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Steelers 22/1 - Getting a great deal here. (.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Chiefs Under 7.5 -155 - Larry Johnson will get hurt, the defense will suck and Herm Edwards will lose his mind. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Dolphins Under 7 -125 - I've talked about the Dolphins plenty of times already. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Steelers Over 9 -105 - The Steelers went 8-8 with a damaged Ben Roethlisberger. No way they win less than 10 this season. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Giants Under 8 -165 - No way they get to 8-8 this year. (1.5 Units)
  • Player Prop: Larry Johnson Under 1,700 Total Rushing Yards - Since Eric Dickerson, no running back who has carried the ball 385 or more times has finished in the top 10 in rushing. Johnson had 416 carries, the most in the history of the NFL. (2 Units)
  • Player Prop: Wes Welker Over 675 Total Receiving Yards - Wes Welker has been Tom Brady's new go-to-guy in training camp and preseason. I'm expecting a big year from him. (2 Units)
  • More prop picks will be listed here.



    Second-Half Bets
    Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.

  • Packers -3 +100 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
  • Colts -7.5 +110 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Cowboys -6 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110



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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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