Bengals (7-5) at Ravens (7-5). Line: Ravens by 3. Over-Under: 40.
AFC NORTH CHAMPIONSHIP

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Ravens by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Ravens by 3.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
During their first meeting, Baltimore could not defend Chad Johnson, and that was the difference in the game. Jon Kitna went 16 of 27 for 274, with 130 of those yards going to Chad. Marvin Lewis knows this defense well, so he will try to exploit their weakness against the pass once again. Baltimore will not be able to drop everyone back, because they have to stay honest to the run.

Jamal Lewis was unable to get going in the prior meeting between these two squads because Cincy jumped out to an early 24-7 lead. Lewis did eclipse 101 yards, but only on 19 carries. If the Bengals are able to jump out to an early lead, Baltimore will be able to come back on Cincinnati, like San Diego and Pittsburgh have done in the last two weeks. Also, I have to note that this is a huge scheduling mismatch, because the Ravens are playing their third consecutive home game, while the Bengals will be playing their third straight on the road.


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Third Road Alert: Teams in their third consecutive road game are 5-9 ATS since 2000.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Ravens have won 9 of last 11.
  • Last Meeting: Bengals 34, Ravens 26 (at Cincinnati +1, 36).
  • Bengals are 5-1 ATS on the road this season.
  • Ravens are 19-11 ATS in home games since 2000.
  • Ravens are 5-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Ravens -3 (open) to Ravens -3 (12/2).
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 40 (12/2).
  • Weather: Snow, 37 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jon Kitna, Chad Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap.
  • Sit Em Corey Dillon, Rudi Johnson.

Prediction: Ravens by 4. Over.




Colts (9-3) at Titans (9-3). Line: Titans by 3. Over-Under: 46.
AFC SOUTH CHAMPIONSHIP

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Titans by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Titans by 3.

The Game. Edge: Titans.
*** Cory Bird, Dallas Clark, Montae Reagor and James Mungro are out and Ricky X. Williams, Tarik Glenn and Brandon Stokley are questionable for the Colts. Steve McNair and Jevon Kearse are probable and Rocky Calmus is out for the Titans.

Indianapolis fell into a huge hole against New England because they tried to run the ball early and often, but couldn't because the Patriots have a stout run defense. I feel the same thing will happen here. Tennessee has the seventh ranked run defense (New England is sixth), so Tennessee could get a huge lead, and Peyton Manning will have to try to orchestrate another comeback. Chad Pennington was able to throw on the Titans, so they could be vulnerable there, although the Titans were looking ahead to this game, and they were missing stud pass rusher Jevon Kearse. Also, the cold weather could be a factor for the Colts, who aren't used to playing in the cold. The last time Indianapolis played in this type of weather, they lost to the Jets in the playoffs, 41-0.

Like I said above, the Titans should get out to an early lead. The Colts are awful against the run, allowing 4.5 yards a pop. Eddie George's successful running will set up play-action for Steve McNair, who will be tossing the ball against a 24th ranked pass defense, according to opposing quarterback ratings. I just hope that the Colts don't get a backdoor cover with a late touchdown that brings them to within 3 of the Titans.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Titans have won 3 of last 4.
  • Last Meeting: Colts 33, Titans 7 (at Indianapolis -2, 43).
  • Titans are 15-14 ATS in home games since 2000.
  • Titans are 5-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Sunny, 45 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Steve McNair, Eddie George, Derrick Mason, Justin McCareins.
  • Sit Em Edgerrin James, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Titans by 4. Money Pick. Under.




Cowboys (8-4) at Eagles (9-3). Line: Eagles by 5. Over-Under: 35.
NFC EAST CHAMPIONSHIP

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Eagles by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Eagles by 4.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Philadelphia has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, but Dallas may have the worst running backs in the league. They are averaging a dismal 3.8 yards per carry, and for a team that likes to run the ball a lot, thats simply unacceptable. Philly's pass defense is not ranked high, however, they've welcomed the return of three Pro Bowl defensive backs in the past couple of weeks (Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor and Brian Dawkins). Quincy Carter has been playing well, but could struggle against this pass defense. Snow might also be a factor for the Cowboys, who usually play in hot weather.

Dallas' tough schedule could be catching up to them. They could not stop Miami's rushing attack, which has been brutal all year. The Eagles will run the ball successfully against the Pokes, setting up play-action for Donovan McNabb, who has just been playing on an MVP level the past month. He's a far cry from the guy who went 11 for 26 for 126 against Dallas on October 12th.


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Eagles have won 6 of last 7.
  • Last Meeting: Cowboys 23, Eagles 21 (at Dallas +1, 37).
  • Eagles are 15-15 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Eagles are 4-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Eagles have covered 7 in a row.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -5 (open) to Eagles -5 (11/30) to Eagles -6 (12/3) to Eagles -5 (12/5).
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 36 (12/2) to 35 (12/5).
  • Weather: Snow, 37 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook.
  • Sit Em Troy Hambrick, Antonio Bryant, Dallas Defense.

Prediction: Eagles by 10. Over.




Seahawks (8-4) at Vikings (7-5). Line: Vikings by 1. Over-Under: 51.
NFC WILDCARD CHAMPIONSHIP

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Vikings by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Vikings by 3.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
*** Itula Mili and Randall Godfrey are questionable for the Seahawks. Chris Claiborne is questionable for the Vikings.

I'm calling this the wildcard championship, because if Green Bay moves ahead of Minnesota, the Vikings will be competing with Seattle and Dallas for the final wildcard spot. Seattle will be able to move the chains on the pathetic Vikings' defense, but its tough to take Seattle because they can't seem to win a road game. The Vikings have the worst run defense in the NFL, surrendering 5.1 yards per carry, which suggests that Shaun Alexander could be primed for a big game. Minnesota has intercepted a league-high 23 passes this season, but they'll be so focused on the run, that they will not be able to put any pressure on Matt Hasselbeck, who is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Seattle might be ranked 15th against ground attacks, but I don't think they'll be able to stop Michael Bennett and Moe Williams, because the Seahawks have really had trouble stopping teams with quality running games. Minnesota should push around Seattle's small defensive line, which is missing enormous run stuffer Norman Hand. Seattle is average against the pass, but they don't have anyone who can cover Randy Moss, nor do they have a big time pass rusher who will be able to break through Minnesota's gargantuan offensive line.


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: After this game, Seattle plays arch-rival St. Louis.
  • Seahawks are 1-4 ATS on the road this year.
  • Vikings are 15-15 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Vikings -1 (open) to Vikings -1 (11/30).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Both Offenses.
  • Sit Em Both Defenses.

Prediction: Vikings by 7. Money Pick. Over.




Chargers (2-10) at Lions (4-8). Line: Lions by 3. Over-Under: 43.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Lions by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Lions by 4.

The Game. Edge: Lions.
*** Justin Ball, Damion McIntosh and Stephen Alexander are questionable for the Chargers. Charles Rogers is out for the year for the Lions.

LaDainian Tomlinson has to be the most frustrated player in the NFL right now, because of the garbage that surrounds him. He averages a fantastic 5.5 yards per carry, but doesn't have that many carries because the Chargers are always behind. Well, Detroit could provide an answer for Tomlinson early on, because this defense put the clamps on Ahman Green on Thanksgiving. I think the Lions' secondary is good enough to take on San Diego's pathetic passing game as well.

Detroit's running game is pathetic, but they were good enough against the Packers, who are 19th in defending the run. San Diego is 22nd, so Shawn Bryson could have something like 75 yards on 20 carries, which will be good enough to take some pressure off of Joey Harrington. Harrington goes against a very young and inexperienced secondary, which hasn't been all that good this year (except emerging star Quentin Jammer).


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Lions are 17-13 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Lions are 4-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Joey Harrington, Az Hakim.
  • Sit Em Doug Flutie, Olandis Gary.

Prediction: Lions by 6. Under.




Bears (5-7) at Packers (6-6). Line: Packers by 7. Over-Under: 39.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Packers by 9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Packers by 7.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
*** Chris Chandler, Anthony Thomas and Chris Villarrial are questionable for the Bears. Antuan Edwards is out and Darren Sharper and Nick Barnett are questionable for the Packers.

Anthony Thomas might play, but Brock Forsey was outstanding last week; albeit it was against the lowly Cardinals. Whoever starts at running back for Chicago will have the pleasure of running against a Packers run defense that made Shawn Bryson look like Barry Sanders on Thanksgiving. Kordell Stewart has played well in two consecutive games for the Bears, but as I state in my Extra Yardage section of my Top Story, Kordell Stewart plays poorly when expectations are high, and great when expectations are low. Two weeks ago, he came off the bench and played well because he wasn't expected to do so. Now, shows on ESPN are talking about the Bears like they are a playoff team. They're not. I think Kordell will falter in this game, and I'm basing this on what I've seen in the past.

Like the Pack, Chicago can't defend the run. Ahman Green should be able to toast the Bears on his home grass. There is no sign of rain or snow, so Green should be fumble free. No sign of wetness is also a great sign for Brett Favre, who won't have to worry about the ball slipping out of his hand. The Bears aren't bad against aerial attacks, but they won't be able to stop the usual from Green Bay: runs, screens and check-down passes.


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Packers have won 17 of last 19.
  • History: Packers are 5-0 SU and ATS against the Bears since 2001.
  • Last Meeting: Packers 38, Bears 23 (at Chicago +4, 41).
  • Bears are 2-4 ATS on the road this year.
  • Packers are 18-12 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Packers are 6-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Packers -7 (open) to Packers -7 (11/30) to Packers -7 (12/2).
  • Total Movement: 38 (open) to 39 (12/2).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 34 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, Green Bay Defense.
  • Sit Em Chicago Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Packers by 13. Over.




Texans (5-7) at Jaguars (3-9). Line: Jaguars by 6. Over-Under: 38.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Jaguars by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Jaguars by 3.

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
*** David Carr and Domanick Davis are out for the Texans.

I'm very angry at this line, because I thought the Jaguars would be favored around 3, and I planned on taking them. However, the line is 6, which I think is an exceptional spread set by the oddsmaker. This has been the best kept secret in the NFL, but now everyone knows about it, thanks to the Sunday Night game: Jacksonville has the best run defense in the NFL. Domanick Davis, who is in the running for rookie of the year, will not be able to get much against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has two studs in their secondary (Donovan Darius and Rashean Mathis), but they don't have much else. If Houston has a chance in this contest, it'll be through the air. David Carr will have to hook up with Billy Miller and Andre Johnson often.

Unlike the Jags, Houston can't defend against the run when facing a stud running back like Fred Taylor. With Fred Taylor running well, it'll be especially difficult for the Texans to stop the pass, because they fail to get any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Byron Leftwich has been playing great football as of late, and I don't see him playing any worse than he did against the Buccaneers.

Note: I have changed this pick at 11:30 on Sunday, because both David Carr and Domanick Davis are inactive.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Texans have won 2 of last 3.
  • Last Meeting: Texans 24, Jaguars 20 (at Houston +2, 37).
  • Jaguars are 16-14 ATS in home games since 2000.
  • Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 51 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Byron Leftwich, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith.
  • Sit Em Domanick Davis.

Prediction: Jaguars by 15. Under.




Buccaneers (5-7) at Saints (6-6). Line: Saints by 1. Over-Under: 40.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Saints by 3.

The Game. Edge: Saints.
*** Joe Jurevicius is questionable for the Buccaneers. Dale Carter and Kendyl Jacox are out and Donte' Stallworth is questionable for the Saints.

Tampa Bay's season is in the toilet, so I expect little effort from the Buccaneers in this matchup. New Orleans might have one of the worst run defenses in the league (allowing 4.7 yards per carry), but the Bucs could do little on the ground against them in their first meeting. Michael Pittman ran for 48 yards on 16 carries. Brad Johnson threw for 321 yards in that contest, but over 100 of those yards were to Keyshawn Johnson. Tampa Bay's offense will go nowhere on Sunday, and it could be time for Chris Simms to step in.

The Buccaneers can not beat the Saints because they can't stop a power running back, who is getting blocks from a huge offensive line. McAllister totaled 110 rushing yards against Tampa in their November 2nd meeting. Since then, Tampa has gotten worse against the pass, which indicates that Aaron Brooks should have a pretty good game.


The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Saints have won 3 in a row.
  • Last Meeting: Saints 17, Buccaneers 14 (at Tampa Bay -8, 39).
  • Saints are 10-19 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Saints are 2-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Pick (open) to Saints -1 (12/2) .
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 40 (12/2).
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em New Orleans Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em Tampa Bay offense and Defense, Donte' Stallworth.

Prediction: Saints by 17. Double Money Pick. Under.




Redskins (4-8) at Giants (4-8). Line: Giants by 2. Over-Under: 37.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Giants by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Giants by 3.

The Game. Edge: Redskins.
*** Chris Samuels and Patrick Ramsey are questionable for the Redskins. Will Allen, Will Peterson, Shaun Williams, Kenny Holmes and Ralph Brown are out and Luke Petitgout and Jeremey Shockey are questionable for the Giants.

New York has thrown in the towel, and their run defense suffered because of it. Travis Henry was able to total 113 rushing yards last Sunday. If Steve Spurrier gives him enough carries, Trung Canidate should be able to do the same thing. Take a look at all of the injuries to players in the Giants' secondary. There is absolutely no way that the likes of Frank Walker and Kato Serwanga can cover Laveraneus Coles and Rod Gardner. I don't care which quarterback starts for Washington, because the Giants failed to get much pressure on Drew Bledsoe, who leads the league in times sacked.

It doesn't matter what defense the Giants are facing; they will committ turnovers. Tiki Barber could actually get some kind of running game going, and Kerry Collins could get a lot of time to throw, but you can count on a few interceptions and fumbles from New York. This could be the last time that Steve Spurrier ever wins in the NFL.


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Giants have won 5 of last 6.
  • Last Meeting: Giants 24, Redskins 21 (at Washington -1, 43).
  • Redskins are 4-2 ATS on the road this year.
  • Giants are 8-21 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Giants are 3-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Giants are 1-5 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Giants -3 (open) to Giants -2 (12/3).
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 37 (12/3).
  • Weather: Snow, 37 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Trung Canidate, Laveraneus Coles, Rod Gardner, Washington Defense, Tiki Barber, Amani Toomer.
  • Sit Em Patrick Ramsey (questionable), Tim Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins, Giants Defense.

Prediction: Redskins by 14. Under.




Raiders (3-9) at Steelers (4-8). Line: Steelers by 5. Over-Under: 40.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Steelers by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Steelers by 4.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
*** John Parella and Sean Gilbert are questionable for the Raiders. Jay Riemersma, Marvel Smith and Hines Ward are questionable for the Steelers.

I'm not positive about how the Raiders will respond to Bill Callahan's comments about them being the dumbest team in the NFL, but I'm pretty sure that for the rest of the season, they won't be motivated to win. Like I stated last week, Oakland's new M.O. is running the football as much as possible, because Rick Mirer can't run Bill Callahan's offense like Rich Gannon did. Pittsburgh is 8th against the run, so Mirer will have to throw the ball on long yardage situations. Even though Pittsburgh can't defend the pass, they'll be able to shut down Mirer.

Oakland is ranked 25th against the ground game, so look for heavy doses of Jerome Bettis. The Bus should be able to gain over four yards per carry, which will help Tommy Maddox out a lot. Maddox might be without Hines Ward and Marvel Smith, but it won't even matter against the 23rd ranked pass defense in the NFL.


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 2-11 ATS since 2002.
  • Revenge Situation: Raiders beat Steelers on National TV in 2002.
  • Raiders are 1-5 ATS on the road this year.
  • Steelers are 15-15 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Steelers are 6-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Steelers -4 (open) to Steelers -5 (12/2).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Cloudy and Windy, 35 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Tommy Maddox, Jerome Bettis, Plaxico Burress, Pittsburgh Defense.
  • Sit Em Oakland Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Steelers by 24. Money Pick. BLOWOUT SPECIAL. Under.




Cardinals (3-9) at 49ers (5-7). Line: 49ers by 10. Over-Under: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): 49ers by 8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): 49ers by 6.

The Game. Edge: 49ers.
*** Dexter Jackson is questionable and Bill Gramatica is out for the Cardinals. Jeff Garcia will start, Garrison Hearst is out and Mike Rumph and Ronnie Heard are questionable for the 49ers.

If Arizona has any chance to win, it'll be by running the ball with Marcel Shipp. However, San Francisco is ranked 12th against the run, and they held Jamal Lewis to 78 rushing yards last week. No running game for Arizona means no play-action Jeff Blake. When Arizona hasn't had a solid running game this season, Jeff Blake has thrown many interceptions. That trend will continue on Sunday.

I thought the Cardinals could stop opposing ground games before last week. After all, they were ranked 8th against them. That thought process has changed, because Arizona surrendered 134 rushing yards to Brock Forsey, of all running backs. Garrison Hearst is out, so Kevan Barlow will get about 25 carries. Jeff Garcia will also break out of his slump - temporarily. Something that also works in San Francisco's favor is that Arizona has lost by: 18, 24, 17, 13, 38 and 25 in their six road games.


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: 49ers have won 5 of last 6.
  • Line Movement: 49ers -9 (open) to 49ers -10 (11/30).
  • Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in road games this year.
  • 49ers are 4-2 ATS at home this year.
  • 49ers are 16-13 ATS at home since 2000.
  • 49ers are 4-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 58 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jeff Garcia, Kevan Barlow, Terrell Owens, San Francisco Defense.
  • Sit Em Arizona Offense and Defense.

Prediction: 49ers by 16. Over.




Jets (5-7) at Bills (5-7). Line: Bills by 3. Over-Under: 36.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Bills by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Pick.

The Game. Edge: Jets.
*** John Abraham is questionable for the Jets. Drew Bledsoe is questionable for the Bills.

I'm shocked that New York's Monday Night win didn't force this spread into a pick em' situation. I like the mindset that the Jets are in. They believe that they can still make the playoffs. In actuality, they definitely can. If they win out, they'll own all tie-breakers with Miami. Its amazing how Chad Pennington transformed this woeful team into one of the NFL's best. Pennington is the most accurate quarterback in football, and Buffalo has no chance of stopping him. They could, however, contain Curtis Martin, thanks to their fourth best run defense.

New York puts tons of pressure on the quarterback, while the Bills have given up the most sacks in the league, so Buffalo must give Travis Henry as much carries as possible. Even that strategy might not save Buffalo. The Jets aren't that bad against the run (17th), but they did make Eddie George look like the George of years past. Something to consider is if the Bills fall behind, they won't be able to use Henry as much as they should.


The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Jets have won 4 of last 5.
  • Last Meeting: Jets 30, Bills 3 (at Jets Pick, 36).
  • Bills are 13-16 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Bills are 4-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Cloudy and Windy, 36 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Chad Pennington, Santana Moss, Curtis Conway, Jets Defense, Travis Henry.
  • Sit Em Drew Bledsoe, Buffalo Defense.

Prediction: Jets by 4. Under.




Dolphins (8-4) at Patriots (10-2). Line: Patriots by 3. Over-Under: 37.
AFC EAST CHAMPIONSHIP

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Patriots by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Patriots by 5.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
*** Tim Bowens is questionable and Jamar Fletcher is out for the Dolphins. Troy Brown is questionable for the Patriots.

Unlike the Cowboys, New England's run defense won't break down at the hands of Ricky Williams. In their October 19th meeting, Williams gained 94 yards on the ground, but it took him 27 carries to do so. That just won't cut it against the Patriots. Jay Fiedler will have to throw on a lot of long yardage situations, which will lead to a few interceptions, because the Patriots have the top pass defense in football.

Miami has the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL, but that won't matter because New England doesn't run the ball anyway. What the Pats do well is throw the football, and while the Fins are ranked 4th against aerial attacks, they have trouble defending deep passes. Tom Brady actually threw for over 280 yards against them in October. It'll be windy and snowy at Gillette stadium on Sunday, so that is terrible news for the Dolphins, who never play well in the cold.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 8-10 ATS.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Home Team has won 4 of last 5.
  • Patriots are 18-11 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Patriots are 6-1 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Patriots are 5-0 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Patriots -3 (open) to Patriots -3 (11/30).
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 37 (12/2).
  • Weather: Snow and Wind, 37 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Tom Brady, Deion Branch, Christian Fauria, New England Defense.
  • Sit Em Troy Brown (questionable), Jay Fiedler, Ricky Williams, Chris Chambers, Miami Defense.

Prediction: Patriots by 14. Bonus Double Money Pick. Under.




Chiefs (11-1) at Broncos (7-5). Line: Broncos by 3. Over-Under: 45.
AFC WEST CHAMPIONSHIP

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Broncos by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Broncos by 1.

The Game. Edge: None.
*** Mike Maslowski is questionable for the Chiefs. Mike Anderson, Daryl Gardner, John Mobley and Ian Gold are out for the Broncos.

On October 5th, Denver nearly defeated Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium. At that point, Denver was 4-0. Since then, the Broncos have gone 3-5. Injuries to their linebackers have destroyed their hopes of winning the AFC West. Not having Daryl Gardner, Ian Gold and John Mobley has really damaged Denver's run defense. They held Priest Holmes to only 97 yards in their first meeting with the Chiefs, but this time, Holmes could go over 150 yards. After all, Tyrone Wheatley was able to gain over 80 yards on only 8 carries last Sunday. With Denver focused on stopping Priest Holmes, Trent Green should be able to connect with his receivers, which is something he could not do on October 5th.

Clinton Portis must carry the ball as much as possible, because Kansas City's run defense is terrible; they are ranked 31st in the NFL. Whenever Portis is running the ball well, Jake Plummer is able to bootleg and throw deep passes to his many talented receivers. KayCee is pretty strong against the passing game, but they'll be too preoccupied with Portis.


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Chiefs have won 6 of last 9.
  • Last Meeting: Chiefs 24, Broncos 23 (at Kansas City -3, 46).
  • Chiefs are 4-2 ATS on the road this year.
  • Broncos are 17-13 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Broncos are 5-1 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Pick (open) to Broncos -2 (11/30) to Broncos -2 (12/3) to Broncos -3 (12/5).
  • Total Movement: 46 (open) to 45 (12/2).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 51 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Both Offenses.
  • Sit Em Both Defenses.

Prediction: Chiefs by 3. Over.




Panthers (8-4) at Falcons (2-10). Line: Panthers by 1. Over-Under: 41.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Panthers by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Falcons by 3.

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
*** Dan Morgan is questionable for the Panthers. Michael Vick will start, Warrick Dunn is out, Bryan Scott is doubtful and Cory Hall, Matt Stewart, Ray Buchanan, Ed Jasper and Keith Newman are questionable for the Falcons.

Atlanta's poor defense is well documented, but they will play better with Michael Vick back. Stephen Davis should still be able to have a pretty good game, but he won't have the 193 rushing yards that he accumulated on September 28th, when the Panthers hosted the Falcons. Jake Delhomme should have an economical day, but like I stated, the Falcons' defense will play better than they've ever played all season, because they know they can win if Vick is playing. For more on this reasoning, check out next week's top story.

Obviously, Michael Vick makes more of a difference on offense. Last year, Atlanta totaled 30 and 41 against Carolina's defense, because the Panthers had no answer for the most electrifying player in the NFL. Vick will do everything in this game; run for first downs, break through pass rushers to complete passes and throw the long ball to Peerless Price. Prepare to see the Falcons team that I thought would go to the Super Bowl.


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Divisional Revenge: Teams in a revenge role in divisional matchups are 13-5 ATS this year.
  • History: Falcons have won 6 of last 7.
  • Last Meeting: Panthers 23, Falcons 3 (at Carolina -6, 35).
  • Falcons are 8-22 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Falcons are 2-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Falcons are 0-6 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -2 (open) to Panthers -1 (12/2) .
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 41 (12/2).
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Michael Vick, Peerless Price, Quentin McCord.
  • Sit Em Carolina Defense.

Prediction: Falcons by 17. Over.




Rams (9-3) at Browns (4-8). Line: Rams by 4. Over-Under: 43. MONDAY!

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 13 Games): Browns by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 13 Games): Rams by 4.

The Game. Edge: Rams.
*** Kelly Holcomb will start, William Green is out and Ben Taylor and Tim Couch are questionable for the Browns.

St. Louis has an amazing offense, but they can not play on the road, because they aren't a grass team, and they aren't used to the cold. Cleveland has a poor run defense, but Marshall Faulk isn't the same as he is on his carpet. Marc Bulger also has been known to throw a few interceptions away from the Edward Jones Dome. Look for the Rams' offense to sputter in this contest.

It's a shame that Cleveland doesn't have William Green available, because the Rams are 30th against the run. However, James Jackson has shown some flashes when playing against poor run defenses. If he can get going, it'll help Kelly Holcomb, who will be up against a defense that holds opposing quarterbacks to a 72.1 rating.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: After this game, the Rams have a showdown with the Seahawks.
  • Rams are 2-4 ATS on the road this year.
  • Browns are 13-17 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Browns are 2-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Browns are 2-4 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Rams -5 (open) to Rams -4 (12/2) to Rams -4 (12/5).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Cloudy, 32 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, James Jackson.
  • Sit Em Marc Bulger, Cleveland Receivers.

Prediction: Browns by 3. Money Pick. UPSET SPECIAL. Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 5-6
Eagles: 5-7
Giants: 7-5
Redskins: 8-3

Bears: 7-4
Lions: 7-4
Packers: 5-7
Vikings: 8-4

Buccaneers: 7-5
Falcons: 8-4
Panthers: 7-5
Saints: 6-6

49ers: 5-6
Cardinals: 5-7
Rams: 4-7
Seahawks: 5-7

Bills: 2-8
Dolphins: 5-7
Jets: 8-2
Patriots: 8-4

Bengals: 6-6
Browns: 3-9
Ravens: 5-7
Steelers: 6-6

Colts: 7-4
Jaguars: 8-4
Texans: 8-4
Titans: 7-5

Broncos: 9-3
Chargers: 6-6
Chiefs: 5-7
Raiders: 5-6

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1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 15, 2014): 6-9-1 (-$1,380)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2014): 1-2 (-$360)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2014): 0-1 (-$440)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 15, 2014): 10-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 15, 2014): $0

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40% (-$580)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 115-118-7, 49.4% (-$2,655)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 40-38, 51.3% (+$70)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 9-13-1, 40.9% (-$1,620)
2014 Season Over-Under: 123-98-2, 55.7% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,140

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,129-1,962-117, 52.0% (+$9,760)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 684-621-31 (52.4%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 285-247-11 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1,664-1,635-48 (50.4%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-18 (62.5%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-9
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-6
49ers: 6-7
Eagles: 9-5
Lions: 5-8
Falcons: 6-8
Cardinals: 7-7
Giants: 4-10
Packers: 9-4
Panthers: 5-9
Rams: 6-8
Redskins: 8-6
Vikings: 11-3
Saints: 5-8
Seahawks: 7-7
Bills: 6-8
Bengals: 5-10
Colts: 6-7
Broncos: 7-7
Dolphins: 9-4
Browns: 7-5
Jaguars: 8-6
Chargers: 5-9
Jets: 7-7
Ravens: 6-8
Texans: 6-7
Chiefs: 8-5
Patriots: 7-7
Steelers: 7-7
Titans: 6-6
Raiders: 5-9
Divisional: 31-37 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 11-16 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 23-21 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 39-39 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 29-15 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 13-11 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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