Lions (2-1) at Falcons (4-0). Line: Falcons by 6. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Falcons by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Falcons by 7.

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
Injuries: LIONS: OUT: RB Kevin Jones, WR Charles Rogers, LB Boss Bailey, S Brian Walker. DOUBTFUL: CB Andre Goodman. QUESTIONABLE: FB Cory Schlesinger, CB Dre Bly. FALCONS: OUT: CB DeAngelo Hall, S Keion Carpenter. QUESTIONABLE: CB Jason Webster.

Shawn Bryson and Artose Pinner figure to split carries in this contest because Kevin Jones is out. Neither player will establish himself on the ground; Atlanta allows just three yards per rush. Falcon defenders will be breathing down Joey Harrington's neck all afternoon. In long yardage situations, Harrington must face a defense that has already registered an amazing total of 16 sacks, including seven from Patrick Kerney.

The Falcons are quickly becoming the Denver Broncos. Ever since Jamal Anderson's injury in 1999, Atlanta has had an anemic rushing attack. Not anymore. Alex Gibbs, the best offensive line coach in the NFL, joined the Falcons this offseason and his presence is paying dividends. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett are averaging 4.3 and 5.0 yards per carry, respectively. The Lions may only surrender 3.5, but even the Panthers, who have a stout run defense, allowed nearly five yards per rush Sunday. The Lions must also worry about Michael Vick's mobility and his ability to throw the ball downfield. There is a chance for a backdoor cover, but the Falcons should be focused against the Lions - they play the miserable Chargers next week.


The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Falcons are 10-23 ATS at home since 2000 (2-7 ATS since 2003).
  • Falcons are 1-8 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Falcons -7 (open) to Falcons -6.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 41.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Roy Williams, Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Defense.
  • Sit Em: Detroit Running Backs and Defense.

Prediction: Falcons by 21. (Falcons -6). Over.




Dolphins (0-4) at Patriots (3-0). Line: Patriots by 13. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Patriots by 14.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Patriots by 14.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: DOLPHINS: OUT: RB Lamar Gordon, RB Travis Minor, WR David Boston, OT John St. Clair, DT Larry Chester, DT Tim Bowens, S Chris Akins, S Shawn Wooden. QUESTIONABLE: WR Chris Chambers. PATRIOTS: OUT: TE Ben Watson. DOUBTFUL: WR Deion Branch. QUESTIONABLE: RB Kevin Faulk, WR Bethel Johnson, WR Troy Brown.

This point spread is skewed. Miami has not lost by more than 10 points all season, and they have not lost to the Patriots by more than 12 since the playoffs in 1997.

New England's run defense appears as though it will be exposed at some point this season. Not Sunday though. Leonard Henry has done a solid job rushing the football, given Miami's offensive line woes, but he is gaining just 3.2 yards per carry. That's simply not good enough to beat the Patriots. Jay Fiedler will look like a zebra getting devoured by lions on third and long situations.

Historically, Miami has always done a good job defending the Patriots' offense. In the Bill Belichick era, New England has scored an average of 16 points against the Dolphins' prolific defense. Sunday's contest will not be any different; Miami will do everything in their power to prevent their arch-rivals from obtaining their record-setting 19th consecutive victory.

Though the Dolphins' offense may not score at all, the defense will keep them in the game and perhaps score a few points themselves.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Home Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Patriots were 8-0 ATS last year.
  • Patriots are 10-3 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 34.
  • Weather: Showers, 61 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Randy McMichael, David Givens.
  • Sit Em: Miami Offense (except McMichael).

Prediction: Patriots by 10. (Dolphins +13). Under.




Buccaneers (0-4) at Saints (2-2). Line: Saints by 3. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Saints by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Saints by 5.

The Game. Edge: Saints.
Injuries: BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Charlie Garner, WR Joe Jurevicius, WR Joey Galloway, WR Keenan McCardell, WR Frank "Yo" Murphy, TE Rickey Dudley, G Kerry Jenkins, G Matt O'Dwyer. SAINTS: OUT: DE Willie Whitehead. QUESTIONABLE: RB Deuce McAllister*, WR Jerome Pathon, CB Mike McKenzie.

The Saints are currently the laughing stock of the league, replacing Mike Martz for at least a week. Cardinals 34, Saints 10. That score says it all. Part of the reason why New Orleans lost to Arizona is because they were looking ahead to this matchup. It's safe to say that the Saints and the Buccaneers do not like each other. Both teams will have their defenses revved up, especially New Orleans, who will be looking to make amends for Sunday's debacle.

Tampa Bay will not be able to score in this contest because they can not run the football. Michael Pittman managed to gain 4.8 yards per carry against the Broncos, but New Orleans will be able to stack eight men in the box, thanks to their newly acquired shut down corner, Mike McKenzie. Not that they really need him Sunday; Chris Simms will be making his first professional start. Simms may become a solid NFL quarterback in the future, but a first year signal caller making his first ever road appearance can only lead to disaster.

New Orleans has dominated the Buccaneers the past few seasons, because their mammoth offensive line has been capable of wearing down Tampa Bay's small defensive front. Having Deuce McAllister helped, but even Aaron Stecker will establish himself as a potent threat, allowing Aaron Brooks to play-action pass to his plethora of talented wide receivers. Stecker is actually averaging a full yard per carry more than Deuce McAllister gained prior to his ankle injury.


The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • History: Saints have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Saints are 12-20 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Saints -3 (open) to Saints -3.
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 35 to 36.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: New Orleans Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: Tampa Bay Defense.

Prediction: Saints by 7. (Saints -3). Money Pick. Under.




Browns (2-2) at Steelers (3-1). Line: Steelers by 6. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Steelers by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Steelers by 6.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: BROWNS: OUT: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., DE Courtney Brown, LB Brant Boyer, LB Ben Taylor. DOUBTFUL: OT Ryan Tucker, DT Gerard Warren. QUESTIONABLE: LB Kevin Bentley, LB Barry Gardner. STEELERS: OUT: QB Tommy Maddox, G Kendall Simmons, LB Kendrell Bell.

Which Cleveland team will show up Sunday? The pathetic squad that was obliterated by the New York Giants or the one that seemingly knew all of the plays Joe Gibbs was calling? Lee Suggs was able to total 82 yards against the Redskins last week, but now must attempt to carry the ball against one of the elite front sevens in the NFL. Pittsburgh surrenders just 3.5 yards per carry, and has always done an exceptional job containing Cleveland's rushing attack. Theoretically, Butch Davis should spread out five wide receivers and attack Pittsburgh's weak secondary. The problem is, Davis does not have the personnel to dictate that type of offense. Jeff Garcia does not have the arm strength to throw deep downfield, he has already been sacked 10 times this year and his receivers drop far too many balls.

Surprisingly, the Browns have the third ranked run defense in the NFL; they allow just 3.2 yards per carry. Ben Roethlisberger, who has exceeded expectations thus far, will have to deal with many long yardage situations. Don't be shocked if he converts a healthy number of them to Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress and Antwaan Randle El; the Browns' secondary isn't the strongest defensive back corps in the NFL. In a year or two, Roethlisberger will torch Cleveland's defense, but for now, Bill Cowher will firmly hold the reins on his young signal caller.

Most of the contests between the Browns and the Steelers are nail-biters. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by seven points or less. This game figures to be a defensive struggle.


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • History: Steelers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Steelers are 5-2 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 37.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 61 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Jeff Garcia, William Green, Duce Staley.

Prediction: Steelers by 4. (Browns +6). Under.




Vikings (2-1) at Texans (2-2). Line: Vikings by 4. Over-Under: 49.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Vikings by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Vikings by 4.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: VIKINGS: OUT: RB Michael Bennett*, RB Onterrio Smith, TE Jim Kleinsasser, TE Jermaine Wiggins, OT Mike Rosenthal, LB E.J. Henderson, CB Ken Irvin, S Tyrone Carter. QUESTIONABLE: RB Moe Williams, LB Chris Claiborne. TEXANS: OUT: S Eric Brown. QUESTIONABLE: WR Corey Bradford.

Minnesota's first and second string running backs will be out Sunday. Michael Bennett hasn't played all year, but the Vikings will miss Onterrio Smith's pass-catching ability. Against the Chicago Bears in week three, Smith tallied 94 rushing yards and 104 receiving yards. Moe Williams, a powerful back who is not as skilled at receiving, will start against the Texans. Houston allows five yards per carry and even surrendered 8.2 yards per rush to the Oakland Raiders last Sunday. With an established ground attack, Daunte Culpepper will be able to heave long passes to Randy Moss and Nate Burleson, despite the fact that the Texans allow less than 200 passing yards per game.

Although Domanick Davis was absent for Houston's first ever second consecutive victory, Jonathan Wells stepped in and was exceptional. Facing a tough Oakland defense, Wells registered 105 yards on 26 carries. Wells has proven that he can carry the load, so it shouldn't really matter if Davis can play Sunday, because Minnesota allows 4.5 yards per rush. With Davis and Wells ripping off huge chunks of yards on the ground, David Carr will able to abuse a sorry secondary that has allowed nearly 300 passing yards per game this season.

It should be noted that the Vikings have lost six straight road games. Some of those losses have been to teams like the Bears, Cardinals, Chargers and Raiders.


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Vikings are 3-7 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Texans are 7-3 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Texans are 9-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 49 (open) to 49.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Offenses.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Texans by 3. (Texans +4). Money Pick. Under.




Giants (3-1) at Cowboys (2-1). Line: Cowboys by 3. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Cowboys by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Cowboys by 3.

The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: GIANTS: OUT: G Rich Seubert, G Barry Stokes, S Omar Stoutmire, S Shaun Williams. COWBOYS: OUT: RB Julius Jones, CB Pete Hunter, S Darren Woodson. QUESTIONABLE: G Andre Gurode.

Credit Tom Coughlin for revitalizing this dead Giants team. No one expected them to be 3-1 after four games this season. Few expected Kurt Warner to regain his pre-2002 form, but he has. Warner's accuracy has returned, but it is Tiki Barber's rushing ability that has propelled the Giants to victory. Barber is the second leading rusher in the NFL and will be battling the Cowboys, who allow a very mediocre 4.4 yards per carry. Dallas' secondary will be missing two starters, Darren Woodson and Pete Hunter, which means Warner will be able to continue his nostalgic sharp shooting.

Bill Parcells is doing it with mirrors. His leading rusher, Eddie George, has tallied only 106 yards, and Vinny Testaverde's completion percentage is under 57%, and he has thrown as many interceptions (three) as touchdowns. Yet, the Cowboys are 2-1. New York's defense has allowed 4.7 yards per carry, so the trio of George, RaShard Lee and Richie Anderson will be carrying the ball as much as possible. Honestly, I'm not really sure how the Cowboys will score points against the Giants' defense, which has been prolific since the disaster against Philadelphia, but Parcells always seems to find a way.


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 11-16 ATS since 2003.
  • History: Cowboys have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Cowboys are 6-2 ATS at home under Bill Parcells.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 38.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Giants Offense, Terry Glenn, Antonio Bryant, Keyshawn Johnson.
  • Sit Em: Vinny Testaverde, Dallas Defense.

Prediction: Cowboys by 4. (Cowboys -3). Under.




Raiders (2-2) at Colts (3-1). Line: Colts by 9. Over-Under: 52.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Colts by 9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Colts by 10.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: QB Rich Gannon, RB Tyrone Wheatley, G Mo Collins, S David Gibson. DOUBTFUL: G Ron Stone. COLTS: DOUBTFUL: CB Joseph Jefferson, S Bob Sanders, S Idrees Bashir, S Michael Doss. QUESTIONABLE: K Mike Vanderjagt.

Kerry Collins is a good fit in Norv Turner's vertical offense. Collins has a more powerful arm than Rich Gannon. The problem with Collins are his turnovers; last week, he was responsible for five. If the Raiders are losing early in the game, Collins may force ill-advised throws, mixed in with the common fumble or two or five. Although Indianapolis surrenders 4.5 yards per carry, their run defense was stout against Jacksonville last Sunday, restricting the Jaguars to just 3.3 yards per rush. Tyrone Wheatley is questionable, but even if he plays, the Raiders' rushing attack isn't potent enough to take advantage of the Colts' weak stop unit.

Oakland's defense has improved, but they will not be able to contain the hot Colts. Even the Jaguars, who have the top defense in the NFL, allowed 24 points to Indianapolis. The Raiders yielded 30 points to the Houston Texans. Enough said.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Raiders are 1-7 ATS in October games since 2001.
  • Colts are 1-7 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Colts -9 (open) to Colts -9 to Colts -9.
  • Total Movement: 51 (open) to 52.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Kerry Collins, Jerry Porter, Indianapolis Offense.
  • Sit Em: Tyrone Wheatley, Amos Zereoue, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Colts by 20. (Colts -9). Money Pick. Over.




Jaguars (3-1) at Chargers (2-2). Line: Jaguars by 2. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Jaguars by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Jaguars by 3.

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: JAGUARS: OUT: TE Kyle Brady, OT Mike Pearson, DE Paul Spicer. QUESTIONABLE: TE George Wrighster.

Although both teams have superstar running backs, it will be the passing game that determines the winner of this contest. Both the Jaguars and the Chargers are prolific run stoppers. The Jags surrender 3.8 yards per carry, but have dealt with runners like Edgerrin James, Quentin Griffin, Travis Henry and Chris Brown. San Diego, meanwhile, is ranked fourth against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards per rush.

Prior to last week's matchup against Indianapolis, Byron Leftwich was only impressive on the last drive against Buffalo and Tennessee. However, he torched the Colts for 318 yards. The Chargers' have yielded over 250 passing yards per contest and have only registered six sacks. Despite being in many long yardage situations, Leftwich should be able to convert often, en route to an impressive day.

In addition to being stout against the run, the Jaguars have permitted foes to just 187 passing yards per game. Drew Brees has been inconsistent this season, looking like a Pro Bowl quarterback one game, and a high school signal caller the next. Brees will have one of his negative outings against the best stop unit in the NFL.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Line Movement: Jaguars -3 (open) to Jaguars -2.
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 36.
  • Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Reche Caldwell, Antonio Gates, Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith, Jacksonville Defense.
  • Sit Em: Fred Taylor, San Diego Defense.

Prediction: Jaguars by 6. (Jaguars -2). Under.




Bills (0-3) at Jets (3-0). Line: Jets by 7. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Jets by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Jets by 7.

The Game. Edge: Jets.
Injuries: BILLS: OUT: C Trey Teague, CB Troy Vincent, S Lawyer Milloy. QUESTIONABLE: G Mike Pucillo. JETS: OUT: DT Josh Evans, LB Sam Cowart, CB Ray Mickens.

The last time these two teams clashed, the Bills registered 203 rushing yards. While the Jets have been better defensively this season, they still yield 4.2 yards per carry. Travis Henry and Willis McGahee will ease some pressure off of Drew Bledsoe, who will attempt to parlay last week's performance against the New England Patriots into another positive game.

Buffalo is far too good of a defensive team to be underdogs of seven points. They allow only 3.4 yards per carry, meaning Curtis Martin will not be able to establish himself as a potent threat for the first time this season. The Bills have yet to permit any running back to reach the 100 yard plateau this season. Chad Pennington will be able to move the chains through the air because two of Buffalo's defensive backs are out: Troy Vincent and Lawyer Milloy.


The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • History: Jets have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Sunny, 69 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Travis Henry, Chad Pennington, Santana Moss, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Drew Bledsoe, Lee Evans.

Prediction: Jets by 6. (Bills +7). Under.




Cardinals (1-3) at 49ers (0-4). Line: 49ers by 1. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): 49ers by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Cardinals by 1.

The Game. Edge: 49ers.
Injuries: CARDINALS: OUT: RB Marcel Shipp, WR Anquan Boldin, DE Fred Wakefield, DT Wendell Bryant, CB Duane Starks, S Dexter Jackson. 49ERS: OUT: C Jeremy Newberry, DE Andre Carter, CB Mike Rumph. DOUBTFUL: DE John Engelberger. QUESTIONABLE: CB Ahmed Plummer.

After almost beating St. Louis, keeping up with New England and nearly knocking off Atlanta, the Arizona Cardinals destroyed New Orleans. Emmitt Smith rushed for over 127 yards and even threw a touchdown pass. However, he will not duplicate Sunday's performance against the 49ers. San Francisco allows just 3.7 yards per carry, despite having a soft pass defense. Josh McCown does not have the tools around him to take advantage of the 49ers' weakness on defense. Keep in mind that he is missing his top pass-catching running back, Marcel Shipp, and his best receiver, Anquan Boldin.

Unlike their counterparts, the Cardinals' defense can not contain the running game; they surrender a woeful 5.1 yards per rush. Two of Arizona's starting defensive backs: Duane Starks and Dexter Jackson, are out for this contest. Kevan Barlow's presence will force the Cards to place eight men in the box. If that happens, Tim Rattay will take advantage of Arizona's miserable secondary. If not, Barlow may total 150 rushing yards.


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: 49ers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
  • 49ers are 6-3 ATS at home under Dennis Erickson.
  • Line Movement: 49ers -2 (open) to 49ers -1.
  • Total Movement: 38 (open) to 36.
  • Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Larry Fitzgerald, Kevan Barlow, Eric Johnson.
  • Sit Em: Emmitt Smith.

Prediction: 49ers by 7. (49ers -1). Under.




Rams (2-2) at Seahawks (3-0). Line: Seahawks by 7. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Seahawks by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Seahawks by 4.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: RAMS: OUT: OT Kyle Turley, C Dave Wohlabaugh, DT Jimmy Kennedy, CB Travis Fisher, S Zack Bronson. SEAHAWKS: OUT: LB Chad Brown, S Damien Robinson.

Christopher Columbus, Ferdinand Magellan, Mike Martz. All made great discoveries. The coach of the Rams discovered the running game Sunday night. Too bad he won't stick with it - or at least that is what history has shown us. Against "unworthy" opponents, Martz actually gives the football to Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson. The two running backs received an average of 30 carries against the Cardinals and 49ers. When Martz coaches against playoff caliber squads, he can't resist airing it out; Faulk and Jackson were given an average of 14.5 touches against the Falcons and Saints.

Not like it matters anyway. Seattle's defense is ranked sixth against the run, permitting just 3.5 yards per rush. When Martz calls five, six or seventy pass plays in a row, the Seahawks will be ready; they surrender just 171 passing yards per game. Seattle has the best stop unit in the NFC, and a defense like theirs will not be exploited by a one-dimensional offense.

Contrary to their new rivals, the Rams can not play defense of any kind. They yield 4.7 yards per carry while give up over 230 passing yards per game. As soon as Shaun Alexander starts ripping off five yards per rush, Matt Hasselbeck will run a few play-action passes and connect with his plethora of talented wide receivers, including Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson, Bobby Engram and Jerramy Stevens.


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 11-16 ATS since 2003.
  • History: Home Team has won the last 4 meetings.
  • Seahawks are 7-2 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Mike Holmgren is 0-4 after a BYE since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Seahawks -7 (open) to Seahawks -6 to Seahawks -7.
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 43.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 57 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Seattle Offense.
  • Sit Em: Marshall Faulk, Steven Jackson, St. Louis Defense.

Prediction: Seahawks by 17. (Seahawks -7). Money Pick. Over.




Panthers (1-2) at Broncos (3-1). Line: Broncos by 5. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Broncos by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Broncos by 4.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: PANTHERS: OUT: WR Steve Smith, G Bruce Nelson. DOUBTFUL: LB Mark Fields. QUESTIONABLE: RB Stephen Davis, KR/PR Rod Smart. BRONCOS: OUT: RB Mike Anderson, DE Trevor Pryce. QUESTIONABLE: RB Quentin Griffin, CB Lenny Walls.

Despite their offseason additions, Denver is mysteriously allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Even Michael Pittman was able to rip off nearly five yards per rush last Sunday. Stephen Davis is questionable, but even if he is unavailable, DeShaun Foster should be able to approach nearly 100 rushing yards. The acquisitions of Champ Bailey and John Lynch have paid off in the pass defense department; the Broncos contain opponents to an astonishing 137 passing yards per game. However, that is a misleading statistic, because other than Kansas City, Denver has not played a team with a potent passing attack. After their opener against the Chiefs, the Broncos played the Jaguars, Chargers and Buccaneers. Not exactly pass-happy squads. Don't be shocked if Jake Delhomme manages to move the chains through the air.

Maybe Mike Shanahan should have kept Clinton Portis, because the Broncos have not been able to establish a consistent running game since week two. As a team, they are gaining just 3.5 yards per carry and now must play a Panthers' defense that restricts opposing backs to four yards per rush. Jake Plummer has struggled this season, because he depends on play-action passes and bootlegs. Denver's running game is no longer a threat, meaning Plummer must throw while in the pocket, which is his greatest weakness.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Panthers are 7-1 ATS as road underdogs between 3 to 7 points since 2001.
  • Broncos are 5-2 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 38 (open) to 37.
  • Weather: Possible Thunder Storms, 66 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Delhomme, Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina Defense.
  • Sit Em: Jake Plummer, all Denver running backs.

Prediction: Panthers by 3. (Panthers +5). Upset Special. Under.




Ravens (2-2) at Redskins (1-3). Line: Ravens by 1. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Ravens by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Ravens by 3.

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Injuries: RAVENS: OUT: QB Anthony Wright, WR Travis Taylor, TE Heap, C Mike Flynn, LB Peter Boulware, CB Dale Carter. QUESTIONABLE: CB Deion Sanders. REDSKINS: OUT: OT Jon Jansen, DE Phillip Daniels, LB LaVar Arrington. DOUBTFUL: LB Mike Barrow, QUESTIONABLE: OT Ray Brown, KR/PR Chad Morton.

Jamal Lewis may be suspended for Sunday night's contest against the Redskins. While selecting Baltimore to win may seem like a risky proposition, it really isn't because Chester Taylor is a very capable backup running back. Washington actually has the top run defense in the NFL, but since LaVar Arrington and Phillip Daniels went down with injuries, their rushing yards allowed per carry has risen from 2.0 to 2.8. This trend will continue against one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. Either Lewis or Taylor will run behind Jonathan Ogden, the top offensive tackle in professional football.

Washington's offense will be mutilated. Imagine this: the Cleveland defenders were barking out the Redskins' plays before each snap, according to Clinton Portis. Now, what if the Ravens know what plays Joe Gibbs is calling? It will be a disaster. Ray Lewis will have his team revved up after Monday night's embarrassment. This will be a shut out.


The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Redskins are 12-20 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Pick (open) to Ravens -1.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 57 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Baltimore Defense.
  • Sit Em: Washington Offense.

Prediction: Ravens by 16. (Ravens -1). Money Pick. Under.




Titans (1-3) at Packers (1-3). Line: Packers by 3. Over-Under: 44.
Monday, 9:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4 Games): Packers by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4 Games): Packers by 5.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: TITANS: OUT: WR Tyrone Calico, TE Erron Kinney, G Zach Piller, LB Peter Sirmon, S Lance Schulters, K Joe Nedney. QUESTIONABLE: QB Steve McNair*, LB Rocky Boiman, LB Rocky Calmus. PACKERS: OUT: QB Doug Pederson, C Mike Flanagan, DT Grady Jackson. QUESTIONABLE: FB Najeh Davenport, CB Ahmad Carroll. PROBABLE: QB Brett Favre*.

Think lots of points will be scored Monday night? Neither team can play defense.

Green Bay's "go" unit is ranked 30th against the run, allowing 5.1 yards per carry. They clearly miss Grady Jackson, a run-stuffing defensive tackle, who is out with a knee injury. The Packers also allow 235 passing yards per contest. That's what happens when a team's shut down cornerback holds out and eventually gets traded. Even if Steve McNair sits out another game, Billy Volek will be able to step in and play well against one of the league's worst defenses. Chris Brown will be the focal point of attack for the Titans; unless they are losing early in the game, Brown could break the 150 rushing yard plateau.

Think the Packers' defense is bad? Tennessee's stop unit is ranked dead last against the run, allowing 5.7 yards per carry. Ahman Green will get the ball early and often. In fact, Green could surpass 200 rushing yards. The Titans' pass defense is much better than Green Bay's, but Brett Favre will be starting. Favre is often mystical on Monday nights; check his records under "The Trends."


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Titans are 9-4 ATS as underdogs since 2001.
  • Brett Favre is 16-9 on Monday Night.
  • Brett Favre is 5-1 ATS on Monday Night since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 53 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Offenses.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Packers by 7. (Packers -3). Double Money Pick. Over.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 2-1
Eagles: 3-1
Giants: 2-2
Redskins: 1-3

Bears: 1-3
Lions: 3-0
Packers: 3-1
Vikings: 1-2

Buccaneers: 1-2
Falcons: 3-1
Panthers: 3-0
Saints: 3-1

49ers: 2-2
Cardinals: 3-1
Rams: 1-3
Seahawks: 1-2

Bills: 3-0
Dolphins: 3-1
Jets: 3-0
Patriots: 1-1

Bengals: 4-0
Browns: 1-3
Ravens: 1-3
Steelers: 1-3

Colts: 1-2
Jaguars: 3-1
Texans: 2-2
Titans: 2-2

Broncos: 2-0
Chargers: 2-1
Chiefs: 2-2
Raiders: 2-2

Divisional Games: 11-9
Trend Edge: 7-9
Game Edge: 6-9
Game & Trend Edge: 1-2


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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 3-3 (-$170)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 0-2 (-$880)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 2, 2014): 8-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 2, 2014): -$110

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-1, 0% (-$330)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 23-24-1, 48.9% (-$1,060)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 12-10, 54.5% (+$280)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 0-2, %0 (-$880)
2014 Season Over-Under: 18-13-1, 58.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$270

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,037-1,868-112, 52.2% (+$11,365)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 656-593-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-236-10 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 1559-1550-47 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 1-1
Bears: 0-2
Bucs: 1-1
49ers: 1-1
Eagles: 0-2
Lions: 1-1
Falcons: 0-2
Cardinals: 1-1
Giants: 2-0
Packers: 1-1
Panthers: 0-2
Rams: 1-1
Redskins: 1-1
Vikings: 1-1
Saints: 1-1
Seahawks: 1-1
Bills: 1-1
Bengals: 0-2
Colts: 0-2
Broncos: 1-1
Dolphins: 2-0
Browns: 2-0
Jaguars: 0-2
Chargers: 0-2
Jets: 1-1
Ravens: 0-2
Texans: 2-0
Chiefs: 2-0
Patriots: 2-0
Steelers: 1-1
Titans: 1-1
Raiders: 2-0
Divisional: 4-4 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 0-2 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 3-2 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 6-2 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 2-3 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 2-1 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2012 Season:
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