Colts (14-4) at Patriots (15-2). Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, 3:00 PM ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 19 Games): Patriots by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 19 Games): Patriots by 4.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
*** LB Rob Morris, S Idrees Bashir and TE Marcus Pollard are QUESTIONABLE for Indianapolis. C Damien Woody is OUT and RB Antowain Smith is QUESTIONABLE for New England.

If the Kansas City Chiefs had any sort of defense, we'd be talking about how poor the Colts' stop unit is, because they are almost as bad as Kansas City's. They'll finally be exposed at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are not a running football team, but they've been successful running the ball when going against poor run defenses. The Colts have never stopped Tom Brady's aerial attack, and I don't expect that to change on Sunday.

Like I said in Week 13, Bill Belichick has never lost to Peyton Manning. In fact, in their two meetings in 2001, the Patriots were victorius 44-13 and 38-17. Earlier this season, New England got out to a huge lead before Peyton Manning led a comeback that was halted at the one yard line. The Patriots simply have Indianapolis' number, because Belichick's schemes confuse Manning. As most of the country saw on Sunday, Peyton Manning studies each defense thoroughly, and that is one of the reasons why he has been so successful in his football career. However, there are a few defenses that he can't decode, and New England's is one of them. I believe that this game will be a carbon copy of the one we witnessed back in November; New England should get out to a large lead, and Manning will attempt a comeback, but fail.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 3 in a row and 11 of the last 13.
  • Patriots are 8-1 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Patriots -4 (open) to Patriots -3 (1/11) to Patriots -3 (1/13).
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 43 (1/11) to 44 (1/13) to 43 (1/14).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 28 degrees.

Prediction: Patriots by 7. Double Money Pick. Over.




Panthers (13-5) at Eagles (13-4). Line: Eagles by 4. Total: 36.
*** Sunday, 6:45 PM ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 19 Games): Eagles by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 19 Games): Eagles by 6.

The Game. Edge: None.
*** RB Stephen Davis is QUESTIONABLE for Carolina. CB Troy Vincent is QUESTIONABLE for Philadelphia.

Contrary to what some people believe, these two squads matchup very well against each other. Carolina will attempt to play smash mouth football with Stephen Davis. If Davis can't go, DeShaun Foster will start in his place. The former UCLA Bruin is a very solid running back, who could start for many teams in this league. Philadelphia has one of the worst run defenses in pro football, and they'll be so focused on stopping either Davis or Foster, that they may allow a long pass from Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith or Muhsin Muhammad. I believe that Delhomme is very underrated, and he has what it takes to lead Carolina to the Super Bowl. Remember, the Panthers could have won their first meeting with the Eagles, but lost because John Kasay missed 10 points worth of kicks, in a game that was decided by nine points. Kasay will not falter again.

Although Philadelphia is missing Brian Westbrook, they still should be able to put up points against this stingy Carolina defense. The weakness of Carolina's defense is in the secondary, and even though he doesn't have the receivers that Delhomme has, Donovan McNabb is on fire right now and is very dangerous through the air and on the ground. Green Bay had to blitz to get to McNabb, but I think the Panthers' front four can get to him without the extra help. They just have to make sure they tackle McNabb, instead of letting him slip away and consequently see him run for 50 yards. I feel that this game could go either way.


The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Panthers are 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • Panthers are 4-0 ATS as underdogs of 3 or more this season.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -5 (open) to Eagles -4 (1/13).
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 37 (1/11) to 36 (1/13).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 30 degrees.

Prediction: Eagles by 3. Over.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 9-7
Eagles: 9-8
Giants: 10-6
Redskins: 11-4

Bears: 8-7
Lions: 10-5
Packers: 9-9
Vikings: 10-6

Buccaneers: 8-7
Falcons: 9-7
Panthers: 12-6
Saints: 6-10

49ers: 7-7
Cardinals: 9-7
Rams: 5-11
Seahawks: 8-8

Bills: 4-10
Dolphins: 8-8
Jets: 11-3
Patriots: 11-6

Bengals: 7-8
Browns: 4-12
Ravens: 8-9
Steelers: 10-6

Colts: 8-8
Jaguars: 9-7
Texans: 10-4
Titans: 9-8

Broncos: 10-7
Chargers: 8-8
Chiefs: 6-11
Raiders: 6-9

Divisional Games: 52-43
Trend Edge: 46-31
Game Edge: 35-31
Game & Trend Edge: 11-5

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 1-1 (-$20)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 4, 2014): 8-5 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 4, 2014): +$20

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-1, 50.0% (+$370)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 35-40-2, 46.7% (-$290)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13, 55.2% (+$610)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 1-3, 25.0% (-$910)
2014 Season Over-Under: 35-25-1, 58.3% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$470

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,049-1,884-113, 52.1% (+$12,135)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 660-596-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 271-237-10 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 1576-1562-47 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 1-3
Bears: 1-3
Bucs: 3-1
49ers: 2-2
Eagles: 2-2
Lions: 1-3
Falcons: 2-2
Cardinals: 1-2
Giants: 2-2
Packers: 2-2
Panthers: 0-4
Rams: 1-2
Redskins: 2-2
Vikings: 3-1
Saints: 2-2
Seahawks: 2-1
Bills: 1-3
Bengals: 0-3
Colts: 2-2
Broncos: 2-1
Dolphins: 4-0
Browns: 2-0
Jaguars: 1-3
Chargers: 0-4
Jets: 1-3
Ravens: 0-3
Texans: 2-2
Chiefs: 3-1
Patriots: 2-2
Steelers: 2-2
Titans: 2-2
Raiders: 3-1
Divisional: 8-6 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 3-4 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 9-7 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 7-4 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 2-2 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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