Vikings (8-5) at Bears (5-8). Line: Vikings by 3. Over-Under: 40.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Vikings by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Vikings by 3.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
*** Chris Villarrial and Mike Gandy are questionable for Chicago.

Chicago is 19th in the NFL against ground games, but Ahman Green only managed 80 yards on 30 carries against them last Sunday. What's surprising to me is how well the Bears have defended the pass this season. I called this a mirage defense all season long, but they're really not; they rank 12th against the passing game, despite registering only 14 sacks this season. If Daunte Culpepper is given a ridiculous amount of time to throw, he'll be able to connect with Randy Moss. Moe Williams and Michael Bennett were questionable earlier this week, but they've both been upgraded to probable. With those two running the football, Culpepper will get the time he needs to throw the football.

Anthony Thomas' illness prohibited him from performing as well as he could have against Green Bay. He should be 100% on Sunday, and he'll be able to shred Minnesota's 31st ranked run defense. However, Chris Villarrial and Mike Gandy are both questionable, and without those two, Chicago might have trouble running the football. The starting quarterback for this game will be Rex Grossman, who will be making his first ever start. I'll go against the rookie in this spot.

Note: Pick changed from Bears +3 to Vikings -3 on Thursday at 11 P.M.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Vikings have won 9 of last 13.
  • Bears are 13-9 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Bears are 3-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Bears are 5-1 ATS at home this season.
  • Line Movement: Vikings -1 (open) to Vikings -1 (12/8) to Vikings -3 (12/10) to Vikings -3 (12/11).
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 40 (12/11).
  • Weather: Snow, 38 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Randy Moss, Anthony Thomas.
  • Sit Em Moe Williams, Michael Bennett, Chicago Passing Game.

Prediction: Vikings by 4. Under.




49ers (6-7) at Bengals (7-6). Line: Bengals by 3. Over-Under: 42.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Bengals by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Bengals by 3.

The Game. Edge: 49ers.
*** Garrison Hearst is doubtful and Ron Stone is questionable for San Francisco. Levi Jones is doubtful and Matt O'Dwyer is questionable for Cincinnati.

I hate when two solid trends collide. Read below for details. Anyway, the 49ers should be able to move the chains via the ground game, because the Bengals are 27th against the run. In fact, they allowed 180 rushing yards to Jamal Lewis last week. San Francisco is one of the few teams in pro football that has attempted more than 400 carries, so you know that Kevan Barlow will get around 25 carries. Cincinnati is average against the passing game, but with play-action working for Jeff Garcia, the Bengals have no hopes of stopping Garcia to Owens under normal circumstances. However, the weather may be a factor.

Unlike their opponent, San Fran stops the run successfully; they are ranked 11th in that department. They limited Marcel Shipp to 30 yards on 13 carries last Sunday. Without either Corey Dillon or Rudi Johnson running the ball well, Jon Kitna will be faced with a lot of long yardage situations, which will be difficult to convert in poor weather.


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 2-12 ATS since 2002.
  • Welcome Back Alert: Since 2000, teams returning home from a 3 game road trip are 3-11 ATS.
  • 49ers are 1-4 ATS and 0-6 straight up on the road this season.
  • Bengals are 14-16 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Bengals are 5-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Bengals are 4-2 ATS at home this season.
  • Line Movement: Bengals -3 (open) to Bengals -2 (12/7) to Bengals -3 (12/8).
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 42 (12/8).
  • Weather: Rain/Snow, 39 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Kevan Barlow, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em Jeff Garcia, Jon Kitna, Peter Warrick.

Prediction: Bengals by 4. Money Pick. Under.




Falcons (3-10) at Colts (10-3). Line: Colts by 7. Over-Under: 48.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Colts by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Colts by 4.

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
*** Juran Bolden and Ed Jasper are doubtful and Michael Vick, Peerless Price, Ellis Johnson and Keith Newman are questionable for Atlanta. Dallas Clark is out, Jim Nelson is doubtful and Idrees Bashir and Nick Harper are questionable for Indianapolis.

Michael Vick makes this offense better. Now, instead of keying in on the run, defenses have to be focused on Vick, allowing T.J. Duckett to break for big gains, especially against a team that can't defend the run like Indianapolis. Vick, in turn, will use the running game to throw passes downfield and to do the thing he does best, which is scramble for long yardage.

Like I stated last week, Vick makes Atlanta's defense much better. To see a detailed explaination, check out my Top Story around Thursday. Atlanta's defense took care of Stephen Davis last Sunday Night, and they should be able to do the same against Edgerrin James. Stopping Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne will be more of a task than what the Dirty Birds did against Carolina, but I think the Falcons, being highly motivated, can take down the Colts in a shocker.


The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 8-16 ATS in 2003. Falcons won in overtime.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: Atlanta has archrival Tampa Bay after this game.
  • Colts are 13-17 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Colts -8 (open) to Colts -7 (12/8).
  • Total Movement: 47 (open) to 48 (12/8).
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Michael Vick, T.J. Duckett, Marvin Harrison.
  • Sit Em Edgerrin James, Indianapolis Defense.

Prediction: Falcons by 3. UPSET SPECIAL. Over.




Lions (4-9) at Chiefs (11-2). Line: Chiefs by 14. Over-Under: 45.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Chiefs by 12.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Chiefs by 11.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
*** Scotty Anderson, Corey Harris and Charles Rogers are out and Avon Cobourne and Eric Beverly are questionable for Detroit. Mike Maslowski is questionable for Kansas City.

It's tough to take Detroit on the road because they haven't won a road game in 3 years, but, the spread is 14. Teams can expose Kansas City by running up the middle against them; the Chiefs have the worst run defense in the NFL. However, Detroit can't run the ball at all. Against a pitiful San Diego stop unit, the Lions were only able to rack up 28 yards with their top rusher. Joey Harrington has been struggling the entire season. He has thrown a league-high 21 interceptions.

The Lions actually have a pretty good run defense, but they have no hope of even containing Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez and Priest Holmes (catching and running the ball). LaDainian Tomlinson, a similar back, caught 9 passes for 148 yards. This will be a nightmare for Detroit.


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Lions haven't won a road game in 3 years (6-14 ATS during that stretch).
  • Chiefs are 16-14 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Chiefs -13 (open) to Chiefs -14 (12/7) to Chiefs -14 (12/8) to Chiefs -14 (12/9).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Cloudy, 36 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Kansas City Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em Detroit Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Chiefs by 35. BLOWOUT SPECIAL. Over.




Jaguars (4-9) at Patriots (11-2). Line: Patriots by 7. Over-Under: 35.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Patriots by 8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Patriots by 9.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
*** Troy Brown is questionable for New England.

I wish they would have made this line 8 or 9. In that case, I'd be all over the Jaguars because this is a sandwich situation for New England, as you can see below. Anyway, on to the game. For every Jacksonville game, I look to see if Fred Taylor will be able to run the football. If he can, it obviously makes it easier for rookie Byron Leftwich. The Patriots happen to be fourth in the NFL against the run, so forget all of that. New England is also first against the pass, holding opposing quarterbacks to an amazing 59.4 rating. It'll be tough for Leftwich and company to score points, especially in the cold.

Jacksonville has the top run defense in the NFL, so the Patriots won't be running the football either. Therefore, Tom Brady will have to throw on long yardage situations. The Jaguars were pretty weak against the pass earlier in the season, but they've improved tremendously in the past couple of weeks. There might not be any touchdowns scored in this game, so I'm taking the points and the under.


The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Double Sandwich Situation: After a game with Miami, the Patriots have matchups with the Jets and Bills after this contest.
  • Patriots are 19-11 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Patriots are 7-1 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Patriots are 6-0 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 36 (12/9) to 35 (12/11).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 34 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em Both Offenses.

Prediction: Patriots by 3. Money Pick. Under.




Steelers (5-8) at Jets (5-8). Line: Jets by 3. Over-Under: 39.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Jets by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Jets by 3.

The Game. Edge: Jets.
*** Marvel Smith and Chad Scott are out and Jeff Reed is questionable for Pittsburgh. John Abraham and Sam Cowart are out for New York.

The Jets were bulldozed by Travis Henry last Sunday, and that should happen again. Jerome Bettis should enjoy running against a pathetic run defense. However, I don't think Pittsburgh will be able to throw the football, because their offensive line is terrible, and Marvel Smith could be out. New York's passing defense isn't very good, but they have accumulated 33 sacks this season, while Maddox has been sacked 35 times.

Conversely, the Jets won't be able to run, but they will be able to pass successfully. It has been well documented that the Steelers' secondary is a joke, so look for Chad Pennington to connect with his receivers, even on 2nd & 9s and 3rd & 7s.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Jets are 11-18 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Jets are 3-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 40 (12/8) to 39 (12/11).
  • Weather: Sunny, 39 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jerome Bettis, Chad Pennington, Santana Moss.
  • Sit Em Tommy Maddox, Curtis Martin.

Prediction: Jets by 7. Under.




Seahawks (8-5) at Rams (10-3). Line: Rams by 6. Over-Under: 51.
NFC WEST CHAMPIONSHIP.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Rams by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Rams by 6.

The Game. Edge: Rams.
*** Randall Godfrey, Reggie Tongue and Anthony Simmons are questionable for Seattle. Robert Thomas is doubtful and Dane Looker is questionable for St. Louis.

Finally, a marquee matchup. Well, it might not be that special. After all, the Seahawks have only won one contest this entire season, and that was against the Arizona Cardinals. Seattle will have to be able to put up points in a hurry, because the Rams will probably be doing so. If the Seahawks can keep it close, they will be able to run the ball with Shaun Alexander, against the 30th ranked run defense in football. With heavy doses of big Alexander gains, Matt Hasselbeck should be able to play-action and connect with his talented receivers. However, that point is moot if Seattle gets down early. The Rams' pass defense is 9th in the NFL, so they may intercept some Hasselbeck passes.

Like I stated above, the Rams will probably be putting up tons of points in this game. Seattle hasn't been known to stop anyone on neither the ground, nor through the air, and it doesn't help that two of the Seahawks' starting linebackers might be out. Also, since the Arizona road game, Seattle has surrendered 35, 27, 27, 44 and 34 points on the road. That is pathetic. I'm taking St. Louis, but if Seattle can somehow win this game, and realize that they can, in fact, win away from home, they'll be very dangerous in the playoffs.


The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • History: Home Team has won 3 in a row.
  • Last Meeting: Seahawks 24, Rams 23 (at Seattle -3, 46).
  • Seahawks are 1-4 ATS on the road this year.
  • Rams are 14-15 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Rams are 5-0 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Rams -7 (open) to Rams -6 (12/9).
  • Total Movement: 51 (open) to 51 (12/9).
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson, St. Louis Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em Matt Hasselbeck (if INTs are a penalty in your league), Shaun Alexander.

Prediction: Rams by 17. Money Pick. Over.




Texans (5-8) at Buccaneers (6-7). Line: No Line. Over-Under: .

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Buccaneers by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Buccaneers by 8.

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
*** Domanick Davis will start, Tony Banks, Matt Stevens, Aaron Glenn and Charlie Clemons are out and David Carr and Zach Wiegert are questionable for Houston. Warren Sapp and Ken Dilger are questionable for Tampa Bay.

There is no line on this game because David Carr is questionable. However, Domanick Davis will play after being questionable before Thursday. With Domanick Davis, the Texans can run right down the throat of Tampa Bay's defense, which sets up play-action for the quarterback. With Davis, Houston can keep this game close, and they'll have a shot at winning.

Thomas Jones was able to average 4.5 yards per carry against New Orleans' 29th ranked run defense. Houston is not much better; they are 21st in the NFL in that department. A heavy dose of Jones will allow Brad Johnson to complete a good amount of passes against a Texans defense that allows opposing quarterbacks to maintain an 87.2 rating, on average.



The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Sandwich Situation: After a game with the Saints, the Buccaneers play the Falcons after this game.
  • Buccaneers are 17-13 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Buccaneers are 5-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Cloudy, 80 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Thomas Jones, Keenan McCardell.
  • Sit Em Dave Ragone, Tony Hollings, Houston Defense, Michael Pittman.

Prediction: Buccaneers by 7.




Bills (6-7) at Titans (9-4). Line: Titans by 6. Over-Under: 40.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Titans by 10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Titans by 7.

The Game. Edge: None.
*** Andre Woolfolk is out and Steve McNair, Samari Rolle, Drew Bennett and Robaire Smith are questionable for Tennssee.

Buffalo actually has a shot at the playoffs, but they have to win every single game they have left. This one will be the toughest, assuming New England doesn't have to win their final game. The Bills will struggle to score points in this one, because they won't be able to move the chains via the ground, because the Titans are 7th against the run. Drew Bledsoe will have to win this game by throwing on long yardage situations, which can be done, due to Tennessee's 21st ranked pass defense, but it'll be tough.

The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL, so they'll keep this game close. They ranked 3rd against the run and 8th against the pass, so neither Eddie George, nor Steve McNair (who might not even play) will have solid performances. This definitely will be a low scoring game.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Titans are 15-15 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Titans are 5-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Titans are 4-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Titans -6 (open) to Titans -6 (12/7).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Showers, 50 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em Both Offenses.

Prediction: Titans by 3. Under. Money Pick (Under).




Cowboys (8-5) at Redskins (5-8). Line: Pick. Over-Under: 36.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Cowboys by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Cowboys by 3.

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
*** Aveion Cason is out for Dallas. Patrick Ramsey is out, LaDell Betts is doubtful and Chris Samuels, Taylor Jacobs, Byron Chamberlain and Trung Canidate are questionable for Washington.

No team carries the football more than the Cowboys, except the Panthers and Ravens. Washington's defense is ranked 23rd against the ground game, so Troy Hambrick will have a rare, solid outing. That will lead to play-action by Quincy Carter, who will connect with his three talented wide receivers. The Redskins are ranked 15th against the pass, but if they can't stop Troy Hambrick, they'll have trouble defending Quincy Carter.

It is unclear as to whether or not either LaDell Betts or Trung Canidate will play in this contest, but it might not even matter, because Dallas has the fifth best run defense in pro football. Tim Hasselbeck actually won a game last week, which I find amazing, but remember, he played a New York Giants team that has thrown in the towel. I really don't see Hasselbeck beating Bill Parcells, which brings up the question: how can this line be a pick?


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • History: Cowboys have won 10 of last 11.
  • Redskins are 11-17 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Redskins are 2-7 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Redskins are 1-4 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Cowboys -1 (open) to Pick (12/7) .
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 36 (12/8).
  • Weather: Rain/Snow, 42 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Dallas Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em Washington Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Cowboys by 14. Double Money Pick. Under.




Browns (4-9) at Broncos (8-5). Line: Broncos by 10. Over-Under: 43.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Broncos by 9.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Broncos by 12.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
*** William Green, Courtney Brown, Lewis Sanders, Phil Dawson, James Jackson, Jeff Faine and Lee Suggs are out for Cleveland. Daryl Gardner is out for Denver.

I was going to say that this is a sandwich game for Denver (look below for details), but look above at all of the injuries that Cleveland has. I can't envision the Browns moving the ball at all. Denver is 9th against the run, and Clevleand will attempt to carry the football with Jamel White. With no ground game, Tim Couch, who will start for Cleveland, might throw a couple of picks in this contest.

As witnessed on Monday Night, the Browns can't stop the running game, which suggests that Clinton Portis will run for over 150 yards. Like I state every week, that will set up play-action bootlegs for Jake Plummer, who will connect downfield with his many talented receivers.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Double Sandwich Situation: After a game with the Chiefs, the Broncos go to Indianapolis and Green Bay after this one.
  • Broncos are 17-13 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Broncos are 5-1 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 43 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jake Plummer, Clinton Portis, Rod Smith, Shannon Sharpe, Denver Defense.
  • Sit Em Cleveland Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Broncos by 20. Under.




Ravens (8-5) at Raiders (3-10). Line: Ravens by 6. Over-Under: 39.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Ravens by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Ravens by 6.

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
*** Adalius Thomas is out and Jamal Lewis, Lamont Brightful, Cornell Brownm Orlando Brown, Ray Lewis and Kyle Boller are questionable for Baltimore. John Parrella and Rod Woodson are out and Sean Gilbert, Mo Collins and Barret Robbins are doubtful for Oakland.

What a nightmare for the Raiders, who have to tackle Jamal Lewis when they've given up on their season. The Raiders are 24th against the run, so Jamal Lewis could have 200 rushing yards when all is said and done. Oakland isn't much better defending aerial attacks, but Anthony Wright might not even have to throw in this game.

Oakland's new M.O. is to run the football as much as possible. They've been doing it every single game, and they've won when the opposing team could not stop their trio of running backs. Baltimore will have no problem doing so, because their defense is ranked 6th in that department. Rick Mirer will have to throw the football to get first downs, and that just won't happen. He couldn't do it against Pittsburgh, and Baltimore's defense is so much better, which leads me to conclude that this could be a shutout for the Ravens.


The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Double Sandwich Situation: After a game with Cincinnati, the Ravens play divisional rivals Cleveland and Pittsburgh after this contest.
  • Raiders are 15-14 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Raiders are 4-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Raiders are 1-4 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Ravens -6 (open) to Ravens -5 (12/7) to Ravens -6 (12/8) to Ravens -6 (12/10).
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 39 (12/11).
  • Weather: Showers, 58 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jamal Lewis, Marcus Robinson, Baltimore Defense.
  • Sit Em Oakland Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Ravens by 13. Under.




Panthers (8-5) at Cardinals (3-10). Line: Panthers by 6. Over-Under: 38.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Panthers by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Panthers by 6.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
*** Dan Morgan, Mike Rucker, Reggie Howard and Terry Cousin are questionable for Carolina. Josh McCown will start, Pete Kendall and Justin Lucas are out and Renaldo Hill is questionable for Arizona.

Arizona surrendered 146 rushing yards on 18 carries to Kevan Barlow last week, and Brock Forsey enjoyed similar success the week before. At first glance, it looks like the Cardinals can't stop the run, but when looking further, Arizona does a solid job against it at home. When they are on the road, they look awful, but at Sun Devil Stadium, the Cards are a different team. Jake Delhomme should be able to throw against them, but 6 points might be a bit too much for a defensive team to cover. Carolina has only won one game by more than 6 this year, which was their week 3 meeting with Atlanta.

T.J. Duckett was able to run effectively against the Falcons on Sunday Night, so Marcel Shipp figures to do the same. If Marcel Shipp can break for big gains, it'll help Josh McCown, who will be making his first start of the year. Teams have been able to throw on the Panthers, who are ranked 22nd against the pass.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Cardinals are 13-17 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Cardinals are 4-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -6 (open) to Panthers -6 (12/9).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 67 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Stephen Davis, Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin.
  • Sit Em Jake Delhomme, Muhshin Muhammad, Jeff Blake.

Prediction: Panthers by 6. Under.




Packers (7-6) at Chargers (3-10). Line: Packers by 5. Over-Under: 46.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Packers by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Packers by 6.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
*** Kwamie Lassiter and Tim Dwight are out, Jamal Willis is doubtful and David Boston, Jason Ball, Damion McIntosh, Sammy Davis and Stephen Alexander are questionable for San Diego.

Green Bay is 17th against the run, but that statistic is helped by Anthony Thomas' illness last weekend. If San Diego stays in the game with Green Bay, LaDainian Tomlinson could have 150 rushing yards, but I've been saying that all season long. If Tomlinson is able to bulldoze San Diego's defense, it'll make life easier for Doug Flutie, who will be going up against the 7th ranked pass defense in pro football. However, this is all moot if the Chargers' defense gives up tons of points, which they've done all year.

The Chargers figure to allow tons of yardage to Ahman Green, because their run defense is soft. Against the pass, they are even softer. The Bolts allow opposing quarterbacks to have a 94.1 rating on average. That is pathetic. Brett Favre looked somewhat healthy last week, throwing 22 of 33 for 210 yards. Both Green and Favre will have solid outings, keeping LaDainian Tomlinson off the field.


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Chargers are 11-18 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Chargers are 1-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Packers -4 (open) to Packers -5 (12/7).
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 46 (12/8).
  • Weather: Showers, 65 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em LaDainian Tomlinson, Brett Favre, Ahman Green.
  • Sit Em Doug Flutie, David Boston.

Prediction: Packers by 11. Over.




Giants (4-9) at Saints (6-7). Line: Saints by 7. Over-Under: 39.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Saints by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Saints by 5.

The Game. Edge: None.
*** Will Allen, Shaun Williams, Will Peterson and Wayne Lucier are out and Kerry Collins, Ike Hilliard, Tim Carter and Jeremey Shockey are doubtful for New York. Kendyl Jacox is doubtful and Willie Whitehead, LeCharles Bentley and Donte' Stallworth are questionable for New Orleans.

There's nothing harder than to handicap a game between two pathetic teams. The Giants have given up on their season, but New Orleans might not even be good enough to beat a team that has thrown in the towel. Well, you know the G-Men will run the football with Tiki Barber, and the Saints are ranked 29th against it, so there will be some success there. But like all season long, New York will move down the field, but they'll make some turnovers. The spread on this game is really high because Kerry Collins is out, but believe it or not, Jesse Palmer might be the better quarterback. With Tiki Barber running well, it should set up play-action for him against the 17th ranked pass defense. All Palmer has to do is take care of the football.

The Giants defending the running game pretty well, but Deuce McAllister is one of the best backs in the NFL. Something has to give, and unfortunately for Saints fans, I think McAllister won't do anything of significance. Aaron Brooks will have some success throwing, but he is the king of fumbles, so look for turnovers by both teams, keeping this pathetic game close.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Seahawks are 16-15 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Seahawks are 3-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Saints -7 (open) to Saints -7 (12/10).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Tiki Barber, Amani Toomer, Joe Horn, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em Kerry Collins, Jeremey Shockey, Donte' Stallworth.

Prediction: Saints by 3. Under.




Eagles (10-3) at Dolphins (8-5). Line: Dolphins by 2. Over-Under: 37. MONDAY!

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 14 Games): Dolphins by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 14 Games): Dolphins by 1.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
*** Jay Fiedler and Tim Bowens are questionable for Miami.

The fact that this game is at night really hurts Miami's chances. If this game was being held during the day, I'd give the definite nod to the Fins, but they lose their homefield advantage at night. The Eagles have the fourth best running attack in the NFL, while Miami has the second best defense against it, so something has to give. I believe it will be Philadelphia's ground game that will prevail, because they were able to move the chains in this fashion against Dallas, and their fifth ranked run defense. Miami's pass defense is ranked third as far as quarterback rating is concerned, but they do give up tons of yardage. With Philly's running game working, the Fins have no hope.

Philadelphia is pathetic against the run, but Ricky Williams hasn't had much success against anyone. In fact, the Dolphins' rushing attack is ranked 26th in the NFL, just gaining 3.6 yards a pop. The main reason for this is Miami's woeful offensive line. With Jay Fiedler hobbled, I don't see the Dolphins putting up many points against Philly's overrated defense.


The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Eagles are 5-1 ATS on the road this year.
  • Dolphins are 19-11 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Dolphins are 5-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Dolphins are 1-5 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Dolphins -2 (open) to Dolphins -2 (12/7) to Dolphins -1 (12/8) to Dolphins -2 (12/9).
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 37 (12/7) to 36 (12/8) to 37 (12/9).
  • Weather: Thunderstorms, 65 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Defense.
  • Sit Em Jay Fiedler, Miami Defense.

Prediction: Eagles by 13. Over.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 6-6
Eagles: 6-7
Giants: 8-5
Redskins: 9-3

Bears: 8-4
Lions: 7-5
Packers: 6-7
Vikings: 9-4

Buccaneers: 7-6
Falcons: 9-4
Panthers: 8-5
Saints: 6-7

49ers: 6-6
Cardinals: 6-7
Rams: 4-8
Seahawks: 6-7

Bills: 2-9
Dolphins: 6-7
Jets: 8-3
Patriots: 9-4

Bengals: 7-6
Browns: 3-10
Ravens: 6-7
Steelers: 7-6

Colts: 7-5
Jaguars: 9-4
Texans: 9-4
Titans: 7-6

Broncos: 9-4
Chargers: 6-7
Chiefs: 5-8
Raiders: 6-6

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Preseason 2014): 6-6 (-$90)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 3-3 (-$60)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Preseason 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Preseason 2014): $0

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-0, 0% ($0)

2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,022-1,851-112, 52.2% (+$12,405)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 649-587-31 (52.5%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-234-10 (53.6%)
Career Over-Under: 1541-1537-46 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-7
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-8
49ers: 8-9
Eagles: 7-10
Lions: 11-5
Falcons: 5-10
Cardinals: 10-5
Giants: 7-9
Packers: 8-8
Panthers: 8-9
Rams: 7-9
Redskins: 9-7
Vikings: 7-9
Saints: 13-4
Seahawks: 9-10
Bills: 12-4
Bengals: 8-8
Colts: 11-6
Broncos: 8-11
Dolphins: 11-5
Browns: 3-13
Jaguars: 7-8
Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 8-8
Ravens: 9-6
Texans: 10-5
Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-8
Steelers: 6-10
Titans: 5-7
Raiders: 9-7
Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2012 Season:
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