Falcons (3-2) vs. Saints (2-3). Line: Falcons by 5. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
at San Antonio

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Saints by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Saints by 1.

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
Injuries: Falcons: OUT: LB Edgerton Hartwell, CB Kevin Mathis, CB Chris Cash. QUESTIONABLE: QB Michael Vick*, OT Todd Weiner, DE Patrick Kerney. Saints: OUT: RB Deuce McAllister*, S Jay Bellamy, KR Michael Lewis. QUESTIONABLE: RB Aaron Stecker, WR Joe Horn*, TE Ernie Conwell*, OT Jammal Brown, G Kendyl Jacox, G Jermaine Mayberry, DE Darren Howard, OLB James Allen, CB Fahkir Brown, S Mel Mitchell.

First, New Orleans fell victim to Hurricane Katrina, and the Saints consequently lost their home. Then, they were forced to play a home game on the road in the Meadowlands. Then, they were humiliated by the Packers last week, 52-3. Now, New Orleans has lost its best player, Deuce McAllister, for the season.

All of this overshadows two cousins who may be going head-to-head at quarterback. Michael Vick versus Aaron Brooks. A family rivalry sounds nice, but Vick has had the upper hand in this NFC South rivalry, owning a 3-0 advantage over Brooks. However, it is uncertain if Vick will play. He remains questionable, but don't expect Jim Mora Jr. to rush Vick back onto the field; Matt Schaub played efficiently against the Patriots, throwing for 298 yards and three touchdowns. Whether the signal caller is Vick or Schaub, the Falcons will punish the Saints with a healthy dosage of Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. The two running backs will trample a very weak and worn down defensive front, allowing either Vick or Schaub to utilize play-action.

Let's see... McAllister is out and Joe Horn is questionable. The Saints will attempt to pound Atlanta with Antowain Smith. I don't think that's going to work out too well. Aaron Brooks will be confronted with long-yardage situations all afternoon, meaning the shaky quarterback will be making a lot of mistakes.

It's really unfortunate what's happening to the Saints this season. You can feel bad for them -- just make sure you cash in on their woes.


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • History: Falcons have won 14 of the last 20 meetings.
  • Betting History: Road Team is 6-2 ATS in this rivalry since 2001.
  • Saints are 12-20 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Falcons -3 (open) to Falcons -4 to Falcons -4 to Falcons -5 to Falcons -5.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 43.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler, Falcons Defense.
  • Sit Em: Saints Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Falcons by 28. (Falcons -5). Double Money Pick. Over.




Panthers (3-2) at Lions (2-2). Line: Panthers by 1. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Panthers by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Panthers by 3.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Panthers: OUT: DT Kris Jenkins. DOUBTFUL: KR Rod Smart. QUESTIONABLE: RB Stephen Davis*, RB DeShaun Foster*, FB Brad Hoover, CB Chris Gamble. Lions: OUT: QB Jeff Garcia, WR Charles Rogers, CB Fernando Bryant. DOUBTFUL: DE James Hall, QUESTIONABLE: FB Cory Schlesinger, WR Roy Williams*, KR/PR Eddie Drummond.

Here's an interesting note: In Carolina's 11 years of existence, they have never played the Lions at Detroit. All three meetings have taken place in Charlotte.

The only way the Panthers do not win this game is if they are tired after their heated 24-20 victory against the Cardinals. Carolina has one of the elite rushing attacks in the NFL, and there is no reason why the team will not be able to ram the ball down Detroit's throat with Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster. The Lions surrendered 141 rushing yards on 28 carries to the duo of Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor last week. Keep in mind that Detroit's defense was aware that the Ravens could not pass effectively. Carolina can. The Lions will not be able to stack the line of scrimmage, because they do not have the personnel to cover Steve Smith or Keary Colbert.

How in the world did the Lions score 35 against Baltimore on Sunday? Their offensive output was clearly a mirage -- Joey Harrington was just 10-of-23 for 97 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions; and Kevin Jones barely ran for more than two yards per carry. Detroit was able to beat the Ravens, who have clearly self-destructed under Brian Billick's watch. The Panthers, ranked third against the run, will eliminate any threat that Jones will pose on the ground. Harrington will find himself in long-yardage situations, overwhelmed by the hectic pressure applied by Julius Peppers. Keep in mind that Peppers will be matched up against Kelly Butler, one of the worst starting offensive tackles in football.

Even if the Panthers come out a bit flat after surviving the Sun Devil Stadium snake pit, they should win this game. I can't foresee the Lions beating a legitimate Super Bowl contender.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Line Movement: Lions -1 (open) to Pick to Panthers -1 to Pick to Lions -1 to Panthers -1.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 42 to 41 to 41.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Panthers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Lions Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Panthers by 17. (Panthers -1). Under.




Bengals (4-1) at Titans (2-3). Line: Bengals by 3. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Bengals by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Bengals by 2.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Injuries: Bengals: OUT: C Larry Moore, S Kim Herring. DOUBTFUL: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh. QUESTIONABLE: C Rich Braham, S Madieu Williams. Titans: OUT: RB Travis Henry. QUESTIONABLE: G Benji Olson, OLB Peter Sirmon, S Vincent Fuller.

If the Bengals would have beaten the Jaguars on Sunday Night Football, this would be a perfect opportunity to go against them, given that they play the Steelers next week.

Cincinnati's first loss of the season has exposed its defense as a fraud. They could not stop Fred Taylor, who rushed for 132 yards on 24 carries. The Bengals are currently tied for last against the run in the NFL. Chris Brown, one of the better running backs in the league when healthy, should have a field day against Cincinnati's weak defensive front. Brown should be able to trample the Bengals for more than 125 yards, setting up play-action opportunities for Steve McNair, who is somehow holding the Titans together. McNair is not the running quarterback he once was, but he is completing 65.7 percent of his passes, meaning Tennessee should have no problem moving the chains.

The Bengals shouldn't have problems accumulating first downs either. The Titans are ranked 29th against the run, while sporting one of the youngest secondaries in NFL history. Cincinnati should be able to score at will; Rudi Johnson will accumulate massive chunks of yardage, while Chad Johnson will abuse rookie Pac Man Jones.

Cincinnati should win this shootout, but there is still a chance the team is looking ahead to its AFC North showdown against Pittsburgh next week. If the Bengals get caught looking, they will fall to 4-2.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Look-Ahead Alert: BENGALS play the Steelers after this game.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 45.
  • Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Light wind, 7 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Steve McNair, Chris Brown, Drew Bennett, Bengals Offense.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Titans by 3. (Titans +3). Over.




Browns (2-2) at Ravens (1-3). Line: Ravens by 6. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Ravens by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Ravens by 3.

The Game. Edge: Browns.
Injuries: Browns: OUT: RB Lee Suggs, WR Braylon Edwards*, TE Kellen Winslow Jr. Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller. QUESTIONABLE: FB Alan Ricard, TE Todd Heap*, DE Anthony Weaver, CB Chris McAlister.

Congratulations to the Ravens for committing 21 penalties against Detroit on Sunday. They lost an essential game that will likely keep them out of the playoffs, It seems like Brian Billick has lost complete control of the team.

When you have a team filled with flamboyent personalities, it's bound to happen. The Ravens' defense is comprised of overrated showboaters. They struggle to stop opponents from converting on third downs. Cleveland should be able to run the ball well enough with Reuben Droughns, allowing Trent Dilfer to convert on acceptable third-down situations. Speaking of Dilfer, Baltimore's former quarterback will enjoy sticking it to his former team. The Ravens, meanwhile, will wish they had kept him.

There's a reason the Ravens are averaging less than 12 points per game. Well, there's a few reasons: Billick is a fraud, Anthony Wright can't throw the ball, the offensive line is mediocre, and everyone knows Baltimore's only option is to run the ball. The Browns are ranked 21st against the run, but they will stack the line of scrimmage, coaxing Wright to beat them. That will obviously not happen. Cleveland will shut the Ravens down, just as everyone else has done this season.

Romeo Crennel has his team playing hard: the Browns won at Lambeau, they nearly took down the Colts and they beat an underrated Bears squad. Billick, on the other hand, has lost control of the thugs he is in charge of. I'm going with the better coach in this contest -- the one who actually recognizes that Dilfer has talent.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • History: Ravens have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Browns are 8-3 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Ravens are 18-28 SU vs. non-losing foes since 2000. (31-7 SU; 27-11 ATS vs. losing teams).
  • Line Movement: Ravens -4 (open) to Ravens -4 to Ravens -5 to Ravens -5 to Ravens -6.
  • Total Movement: 33 (open) to 34 to 34.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 70 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Antonio Bryant, Browns Defense.
  • Sit Em: Ravens Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Browns by 3. (Browns +6). Money Pick. Upset Special. Over.




Jaguars (3-2) at Steelers (3-1). Line: Steelers by 3. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Steelers by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Steelers by 3.

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: S Donovin Darius. QUESTIONABLE: RB Fred Taylor*, OT Maurice Williams. Steelers: OUT: CB Ricardo Colclough. DOUBTFUL: QB Ben Roethlisberger*. QUESTIONABLE: WR Hines Ward*, OLB James Harrison, CB Willie Williams. EXPECTED TO START: QB Tommy Maddox.

Ben Roethlisberger is doubtful for this game. If he plays, it's almost probable that the Steelers will fall to the Jaguars. If Charlie Batch starts in his place, the Steelers will win and cover the spread.

Before you put me in a straight jacket, let me explain. If Roethlisberger doesn't play, every single player on the Steelers will know that they will have to give more than 100 percent in this contest. Plus, the Steelers will want to prove that their team can play well without Roethlisberger, who has received most of the credit for last year's surprising campaign. Remember when Koy Detmer lit up the scoreboard on Monday Night Football when the Eagles battled the 49ers? Same principle. However, if Roethlisberger is good to go, many of the Steelers will be lackadaisical, given that the team plays Cincinnati next week, while coming off an emotional Monday night victory.

Assuming Roethlisberger doesn't play, Pittsburgh's defense will be fired up. They will put the clamps on Fred Taylor, forcing Byron Leftwich to operate in many third-and-longs. Jacksonville's offensive line is extremely questionable, so don't be surprised if Leftwich is thrown down to the ground on multiple occasions. It's possible that you will be watching a limping Leftwich by game's end.

I've talked about the Jaguars' inability to stop the run for the past few weeks. Jacksonville has been known for its excellent run defense the past few years. However, the team desperately misses strong safety Donovin Darius, one of the premier run-stuffing safeties in the NFL. Pittsburgh will ram the ball down the Jaguars' throat with Jerome Bettis and Willie Parker. While Batch's quarterbacking skills do not match Roethlisberger's, the former starter for the Detroit Lions should have an economical afternoon throwing the ball, thanks to Pittsburgh's effectiveness on the ground.

Believe it or not, I will change this pick if Bill Cowher decides to go with Roethlisberger.

Saturday Note: Tommy Maddox, who was expected to miss a few weeks on Monday, is now expected to start. Ben Roethlisberger will likely be available next week.


The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.
  • Statfox Trend: STEELERS are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win. (Teams 11-26 ATS in that situation since 2000).
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 35-64 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; STEELERS kicked a game-winning field goal with 6 seconds left.
  • Post Monday Night Syndrome: Teams coming off a Monday night victory are 13-20 ATS the following week since 2003.
  • Sandwich Situation: STEELERS played the Chargers last week and battle the Bengals next week.
  • Steelers are 18-2 ATS in October since 2000.
  • Steelers are 8-2 ATS in October home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Steelers -2 (open) to Steelers -3.
  • Total Movement: 35 (open) to 34.
  • Weather: Showers, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tommy Maddox, Steelers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Fred Taylor, Ben Roethlisberger (doubtful).

Prediction: Steelers by 13. (Steelers -3). Money Pick. Under.




Dolphins (2-2) at Buccaneers (4-1). Line: Buccaneers by 4. Over-Under: 35.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Buccaneers by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Buccaneers by 6.

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: OT Wade Smith, CB Will Poole. QUESTIONABLE: WR David Boston, OLB Junior Seau. Buccaneers: QUESTIONABLE: RB Cadillac Williams*, WR Michael Clayton*, S Jermaine Phillips.

Two Florida teams each have a running back returning to them this week. Miami welcomes back Ricky Williams from his four-game suspension, while Cadillac Williams was upgraded to probable on Monday.

It's amazing how similar these two teams are. Both rely on a potent rushing attack and a stout defense to win games. Both have shaky quarterbacks that either do enough to win, or throw an il-advised interception. Even with Williams and No. 2 overall pick Ronnie Brown in the backfield, the Dolphins will struggle to move the chains against the Buccaneers, who possess the top-ranked run defense in the league. Gus Frerotte will be stuck in a plethora of third-and-longs, which could be hazardous to his health, given that left tackle Damion McIntosh has the onus of blocking Simeon Rice. Chris Chambers and Marty Booker will be blanketed by Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly. The Dolphins will not score more than 10 points on Sunday.

Tampa Bay will also have problems scoring, but the team has more of a chance of reaching the end zone than Miami does. The Buccaneers' Cadillac will have to be recalled for inspection, thanks to a Dolphins stop unit that is ranked second versus opposing ground attacks. However, unlike the Dolphins, Tampa Bay will occasionally move the chains through the air. Miami rookie Travis Daniels will have to cover either Michael Clayton or Joey Galloway. Whomever draws his coverage will have a monstrous performance.

The under card in this contest is that Auburn's rushing attack of 2004 -- Cadillac and Brown -- face each other. The starter's team will most likely be the victor.



The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Line Movement: Buccaneers -4 (open) to Buccaneers -4 to Buccaneers -4.
  • Total Movement: 33 (open) to 32 to 33 to 34 to 35.
  • Weather: Sunny, 86 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Michael Clayton, Joey Galloway, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Dolphins Offense.

Prediction: Buccaneers by 10. (Buccaneers -4). Under.




Vikings (1-3) at Bears (1-3). Line: Bears by 3. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Bears by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Bears by 3.

The Game. Edge: Bears.
Injuries: Vikings: OUT: RB Onterrio Smith, WR Nate Burleson, C Matt Birk, DE Kenechi Udeze, CB Brian Williams, S Willie Offord. QUESTIONABLE: RB Moe Williams, DE Lance Johnstone. Bears: OUT: QB Rex Grossman, OLB Joe Odom. QUESTIONABLE: RB Thomas Jones*, OT John Tait, G Ruben Brown.

I circled this game as soon as the schedule came out. This might be your easiest chance to make money all year long.

It helps that the Vikings are an awful team. The owner is sitting in on coaches' meetings, the coach is sitting in on players' meetings -- it's a mess. Minnesota just can't score. No Randy Moss. No running game. No Matt Birk. No Scott Linehan, the team's former offensive coordinator. Now, it's been revealed that Daunte Culpepper has been playing with a bruised MCL. The Vikings will not be able to score against the Bears, who have one of the elite stop units in the league. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and state that Minnesota will not score more than seven points on Sunday.

It's fitting -- the Vikings' terrible offense is paired with a woeful defense. They are ranked dead-last against the run. Even though Thomas Jones is likely to be out, the Bears will still pound the ball effectively with Cedric Benson. The No. 4 overall selection in April's draft will run for more than 100 yards. That will set up play-action for Kyle Orton, who will easily shred Minnesota's pathetic secondary.

The Bears have the advantage on offense and defense. What else? The Vikings haven't won at Chicago since 2000, despite being the better team since that year. Also, Minnesota has only won two outdoor games since 2001. This game will be a "shocking" blowout. Mike Tice might be fired after this debacle.


The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • History: Home Team has won the last 6 meetings.
  • Vikings are 8-16 ATS (2-22 SU) outdoors since 2001.
  • Vikings are 10-16 ATS vs. teams coming off a loss under Mike Tice.
  • Line Movement: Bears -1 (open) to Bears -2 to Bears -2 to Bears -3.
  • Total Movement: 37 (open) to 37.
  • Weather: Sunny, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Muhsin Muhammad, Mark Bradley, Bears Defense.
  • Sit Em: Vikings Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Bears by 31. (Bears -3). Bonus Double Money Pick. Over.




Giants (3-1) at Cowboys (3-2). Line: Cowboys by 3. Over-Under: 47.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Cowboys by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Cowboys by 3.

The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: Giants: OUT: CB William Peterson. QUESTIONABLE: OLB Carlos Emmons. Cowboys: OUT: OT Jacob Rogers. QUESTIONABLE: RB Julius Jones*, ILB Dat Nguyen.

Dallas really looked dominant against Philadelphia, didn't they? I'd like to remind you that the Cowboys struggled against San Francisco and Oakland this season. Sunday's blowout should be attributed to the Eagles, who simply didn't show up against a team that was playing its early-season Super Bowl.

Other than the fact that Philadelphia was flat against Dallas, the Eagles couldn't move the chains Sunday because they didn't run the ball. The Giants will run the ball, and they will be able to do it effectively. The Cowboys are 18th against the run, and are just two weeks removed from yielding 126 yards on 26 carries to LaMont Jordan. Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs, a duo that is gaining nearly 4.6 yards per rush, will burst through wide-open running lanes, setting up play-action for Eli Manning, who is improving every single week. The Cowboys do not have the defensive backs to cover Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey.

If the Giants want to win this game, they will need to stop Dallas on third down; New York is dead-last when it comes to stopping teams from converting third downs. The Giants are ranked 20th against the run, but that statistic is inflated by LaDainian Tomlinson's performance in Week 3. Other than that contest, New York has been proficient versus opposing rushing attacks, thanks to middle linebacker Antonio Pierce. If Julius Jones cannot play -- he is questionable -- Dallas will not be able to run effectively. Drew Bledsoe will throw a few touchdown passes to Terry Glenn, because no one can cover him. However, the Cowboys may find it hard to move the chains consistently without a running game.

The Eagles were flat against Dallas and lost. Now, the Cowboys might be flat after their big win. I'm going with the hungry underdog.


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • History: Giants have won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Cowboys are 9-1 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.
  • Cowboys are 11-7 ATS as a favorite under Bill Parcells.
  • Line Movement: Cowboys -3 (open) to Cowboys -3.
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 46 to 47 to 47.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 85 degrees. Light wind, 9 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Eli Manning, Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Terry Glenn.
  • Sit Em: Julius Jones (questionable), Cowboys Defense.

Prediction: Cowboys by 1. (Giants +3). Over.




Redskins (3-1) at Chiefs (2-2). Line: Chiefs by 6. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Chiefs by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Chiefs by 5.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Redskins: OUT: DT Brandon Noble. QUESTIONABLE: CB Shawn Springs, CB Walt Harris, K John Hall. Chiefs: OUT: DT Ryan Sims, OLB Shawn Barber, CB Julian Battle. QUESTIONABLE: OT Willie Roaf.

Who would have ever thought that Mark Brunell would be commanding a 3-1 squad at this juncture? The Redskins nearly beat the Broncos last week, which really surprised me.

The Redskins are winning with Brunell, because he doesn't commit many errors. He has only thrown two interceptions this season. Plus, it also helps that he is the master of converting third downs; the Redskins are ranked second in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage. Washington will be able to move the chains against Kansas City's defense. Not like it's hard -- the Chiefs can neither stop the run nor the pass. Clinton Portis will trample a very weak front seven, setting up play-action opportunities for Brunell. Kansas City has registered less than two sacks per contest, meaning Brunell should have all day to throw.

There aren't many teams that can stop Kansas City's rushing attack. But, Washington could possess one of the defenses in the NFL that could do it. Excluding fluke 34- and 55-yard bursts from Tatum Bell on Sunday, the Redskins permitted just 3.4 yards per carry to the Broncos, one of the elite rushing attacks in the NFL. Holmes will garner some first downs, but he will need the support of Trent Green to consistently move the chains. Green, who has been a Pro Bowler in years past, has played poorly this season. He currently maintains a completion percentage of 58.6 and a quarterback rating of 77.6. The foot problems he incurred during the offseason could be affecting his performance.

All of Washington's contests have been within three points or less. Thank a stellar defense and a mediocre offense for that. This game should be no different.


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in October since 2002.
  • Line Movement: Chiefs -6 (open) to Chiefs -6 to Chiefs -5 to Chiefs -6.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 43.
  • Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind, 9 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Tony Gonzalez.
  • Sit Em: Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Chiefs Defense.

Prediction: Chiefs by 1. (Redskins +6). Under.




Patriots (3-2) at Broncos (4-1). Line: Broncos by 3. Over-Under: 47.
Sunday, 4:15 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Broncos by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Broncos by 3.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Patriots: OUT: OT Matt Light, ILB Tedy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison. QUESTIONABLE: RB Corey Dillon*, WR/CB/PR Troy Brown, OT Brandon Gorin, DE Richard Seymour, DE Jarvis Green, OLB Willie McGinest, ILB Monty Beisel, CB Tyrone Poole, CB Randall Gay, CB Chad Scott, CB Duane Starks, S Guss Scott, ST Larry Izzo. Broncos: QUESTIONABLE: CB Champ Bailey.

Just when you think they're down, they win. Just when you think they're Super Bowl contenders again, they lose. No one has had much luck figuring out the Patriots this season.

A seemingly important element that the Patriots were able to establish in Sunday's game against Atlanta was the running game. Corey Dillon stomped on the Falcons' front seven, rushing for 106 yards on 23 carries. However, the Falcons are ranked 28th against the run, while the Broncos are seeded sixth. Dillon will not scamper for more than 60 yards. A lacking running game would be a problem for any team -- but not the Patriots. New England scored nearly 22 points per game before Dillon's emergence. Tom Brady will help New England move the ball aerially on Sunday. After all, if Mark Brunell can throw for 322 yards against the Broncos, why can't the best quarterback in the NFL do it?

New England will have to contain the run if they want to come out as winners from Mile High. That will be easier said than done, given that the Patriots are ranked 19th versus opposing ground attacks. Denver will be able to run the ball with Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, allowing Jake Plummer to utilize his play-action bootlegs. Plummer will attack strong safety Guss Scott, who starts in place of the injured Rodney Harrison. The Broncos should be able to consistently move the chains, but you know Bill Belichick has something in store for Plummer. I mean, it's Belichick versus Plummer.

If you can take away one constant from the Patriots this season, it's that they have shocked the nation when people are down on them. New England is once again an underdog, meaning the two-time defending champs are dangerous.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Tom Brady is 60-16 as a starter (50-25 ATS).
  • Patriots are 8-1 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 46 to 47.
  • Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 71 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tom Brady, Deion Branch, Daniel Graham, Jake Plummer, Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie.
  • Sit Em: Corey Dillon, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Patriots by 3. (Patriots +3). Over.




Jets (2-3) at Bills (2-3). Line: Bills by 3. Over-Under: 33.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Bills by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Bills by 3.

The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: Jets: OUT: QB Chad Pennington, QB Jay Fiedler, RB Derrick Blaylock. QUESTIONABLE: WR Justin McCareins*, OT Jason Fabini, OLB Eric Barton. Bills: OUT: OLB Takeo Spikes. QUESTIONABLE: S Coy Wire.

The Jets and Bills kicked off the 2005 season with Chad Pennington and J.P. Losman under center. Do you think either team fathomed they would be starting Vinny Testaverde and Kelly Holcomb at quarterback?

Testaverde was efficient against the Buccaneers, completing 13-of-19 passes for 164 yards. But, the Jets will need more from their offense than an economical Testaverde. The Bills have one of the elite secondaries in the NFL, so it will be difficult for New York to move the chains without a consistent running game. Generating one might be a problem; the 32-year-old Curtis Martin has only averaged 2.7 yards per carry, thanks to his age and a very mediocre offensive line. The Jets will not be able to run the football, which means Testaverde will be confronted with a plethora of long-yardage situations. A very pick-happy Buffalo secondary will intercept a few passes and may even return one for a score.

What a difference a quarterback makes. With Holcomb at the helm, the Bills were actually able to score in the 20s against a great defense. The Jets' defense is solid, but you cannot compare their unit to Miami's. Holcomb will have success throwing the deep ball to Eric Moulds and Lee Evans, opening up the running game for Willis McGahee.

It figures to be chilly, windy and rainy in Orchard Park on Sunday. Sound familiar? The Bills thrive in these conditions. Just ask the Jets -- they have extreme difficulty winning at Buffalo when the weather takes a turn for the worse.


The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • History: Home Team has won the last 5 meetings.
  • Bills are 10-4 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by less than 6 points since 2002.
  • Bills are 1-14 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 32 (open) to 33.
  • Weather: Showers, 57 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 17 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Vinny Testaverde, Curtis Martin.

Prediction: Bills by 6. (Bills -3). Money Pick. Under.




Chargers (2-3) at Raiders (1-3). Line: Chargers by 1. Over-Under: 50.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Raiders by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Chargers by 1.

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: Chargers: OUT: G Toniu Fonoti. QUESTIONABLE: QB Drew Brees*, OT Shane Olivea, DE Jacques Cesaire, OLB Steve Foley, ILB Randall Godfrey, CB Drayton Florence, KR/PR Darren Sproles. Raiders: OUT: WR Ronald Curry, C Jake Grove.

When people talk about the heralded AFC West rivalries, they mention Denver vs. Kansas City, Oakland vs. Denver and Kansas City vs. Denver. No one ever mentions the Raiders-Chargers rivalry, which gets pretty heated when both teams are good.

The Raiders have always had problems containing LaDainian Tomlinson. Last year, they surrendered a whopping 235 yards on 56 carries in two contests. Even though Oakland is ranked seventh against the run this season, the team will still need to place eight men in the box to contain the best running back in football. Drew Brees will benefit from the extra attention Tomlinson will garner by utilizing play-action into an awful secondary. The Raiders' young and inexperienced secondary can only dream to contain Antonio Gates, Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker. The Chargers will be scoring touchdowns all afternoon.

Oakland signed LaMont Jordan to improve its rushing attack this season, but having the former Jets reserve will do little for its efforts against San Diego. The Chargers permit just 3.7 yards per carry, meaning Jordan will have problems just getting past the line of scrimmage. The erratic and undependable Kerry Collins will be ushered into long-yardage situations, which will have the Black Hole a bit squeamish. The Raiders will score some points against the Chargers, because no Charger can cover Randy Moss and Jerry Porter. However, without a consistent rushing attack, Oakland will punt more than its opponent.

The Chargers have had recent success against the Raiders, and that should continue on Sunday.


The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • History: Chargers have won the last 3 meetings.
  • Raiders are 4-11 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Raiders are 1-11 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Chargers -1 (open) to Chargers -2 to Chargers -1.
  • Total Movement: 51 (open) to 50.
  • Weather: Few showers, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson, Keenan McCardell, Antonio Gates, Randy Moss.
  • Sit Em: LaMont Jordan.

Prediction: Chargers by 6. (Chargers -1). Money Pick. Over.




Texans (0-4) at Seahawks (3-2). Line: Seahawks by 9. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Seahawks by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Seahawks by 8.

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: Texans: OUT: DE Gary Walker. QUESTIONABLE: WR Andre Johnson*, DE Robaire Smith, OLB Jason Babin. Seahawks: OUT: WR Darrell Jackson*. DOUBTFUL: OT Pork Chop Womack. QUESTIONABLE: WR Bobby Engram*, TE Itula Mili, DT Marcus Tubbs, CB Andre Dyson, S Michael Boulware.

This contest seems like a mismatch. The Texans are coming off a blowout loss against Tennessee, while the Seahawks shattered domination by beating the Rams. This will be a blowout, right?

Well, that's why they play the games. The Seahawks are ranked ninth against the run, but the Texans might be able to establish Domanick Davis against them. Why? A few reasons: Seattle displayed a small weakness against Steven Jackson by surrendering 77 yards on just 17 carries; defensive tackle Marcus Tubbs may not play; and the team might be flat after coming off an important victory against the Rams. If Houston can run the ball with Davis, it will make David Carr's life a little easier. With a consistent running game, Carr will not be sacked 5,512. Seattle lacks depth in its secondary, so Carr should be able to take advantage of that if he can stay on his own two feet.

Seattle should be able to score consistently -- Houston's defense is neither strong against the run nor the pass. Shaun Alexander will trample the Texans' front seven, permitting Matt Hasselbeck to utilize play-action. The Seahawks proved that they can move the chains without Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram; Joe Jurevicius caught nine passes for 137 yards against the Rams.

A winless opponent is a dangerous opponent. You may laugh, but look at the trends below: 0-4 teams are 10-4 against the spread since 2000.


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Sandwich Situation: SEAHAWKS beat the Rams last week and play the Cowboys next week.
  • Zero Trend: 0-4 teams are 10-4 ATS since 2000.
  • Texans are 14-4 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
  • Line Movement: Seahawks -9 (open) to Seahawks -9 to Seahawks -9.
  • Total Movement: 45 (open) to 46.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. Light wind, 7 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, Joe Jurevicius, Seahawks Defense.
  • Sit Em: Texans Offense and Defense, Darrell Jackson.

Prediction: Seahawks by 3. (Texans +9). Bonus Double Money Pick. Under.




Rams (2-3) at Colts (5-0). Line: Colts by 13. Over-Under: 51.
Monday, 9:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5 Games): Colts by 8.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5 Games): Colts by 10.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Rams: OUT: CB Jerametrius Butler. DOUBTFUL: WR Isaac Bruce*. QUESTIONABLE: WR Torry Holt*, TE Brandon Manumaleuna, OT Rex Tucker, CB DeJuan Groce. Colts: OUT: CB Donald Strickland. DOUBTFUL: S Joseph Jefferson. QUESTIONABLE: RB James Mungro, S Bob Sanders.

I would like to preface this statement by saying that I hope Mike Martz has a quick recovery. However, with Martz out, the Rams may not challenge obvious calls and foolishly consume timeouts.

Who knows? They could actually run the ball. Everyone is glorifying Indianapolis' defense because they are shutting down weak opponents like San Francisco, Baltimore, Tennessee and Cleveland. But, no one is mentioning that the Colts are ranked 27th against the run. A smart game plan for the Rams would feature Steven Jackson running up the middle on three out of every four plays. Like I said, that would be the smart game plan. Who knows what the Rams assistant coaches will come up with. Keep in mind that these are Martz disciples. If they call 40 pass plays and only 17 running plays -- which is what Martz did against the Seahawks -- the Rams will not eclipse the 20-point barrier.

The Rams have one of the worst defenses in the league, so do I really need to tell you what is going to happen on this side of the ball on Monday night? Indianapolis will score at will, and may not even punt. St. Louis is ranked 23rd against the run. They also yielded 316 yards to Matt Hasselbeck, who was missing his two starting receivers on Sunday.

This point-spread is too high to bet on, but the Colts will probably win by about 20, making this three-hour game a three-hour nap.


The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Rams are 8-20 ATS in road games since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Colts -13 (open) to Colts -13 to Colts -14 to Colts -13.
  • Total Movement: 50 (open) to 51 to 51.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Colts Offense.
  • Sit Em: Rams Defense.

Prediction: Colts by 21. (Colts -13). Over.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 1-4
Eagles: 1-4
Giants: 4-0
Redskins: 2-2

Bears: 4-0
Lions: 2-2
Packers: 4-1
Vikings: 2-2

Buccaneers: 2-3
Falcons: 4-1
Panthers: 4-1
Saints: 4-1

49ers: 1-4
Cardinals: 2-3
Rams: 3-2
Seahawks: 3-2

Bills: 1-4
Dolphins: 2-2
Jets: 3-2
Patriots: 3-2

Bengals: 4-1
Browns: 4-0
Ravens: 2-2
Steelers: 3-1

Colts: 4-1
Jaguars: 3-2
Texans: 2-2
Titans: 4-1

Broncos: 1-3
Chargers: 2-2
Chiefs: 2-2
Raiders: 3-1

Divisional Games: 8-10
Trend Edge: 14-11
Game Edge: 5-10
Game & Trend Edge: 0-3


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 2-2 (+$80)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 0-1 (-$440)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 8, 2014): 9-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 8, 2014): $0

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-1, 50.0% (+$370)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 63-68-6, 48.1% (-$615)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-20, 55.6% (+$850)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 3-7-1, 30.0% (-$1,770)
2014 Season Over-Under: 68-51-1, 57.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$690

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,077-1,912-116, 52.1% (+$11,800)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 669-603-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 279-241-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,609-1,588-47 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-5
Bears: 3-5
Bucs: 5-2
49ers: 3-3
Eagles: 4-3
Lions: 2-5
Falcons: 3-5
Cardinals: 3-4
Giants: 2-5
Packers: 5-2
Panthers: 2-6
Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 5-3
Vikings: 6-2
Saints: 3-3
Seahawks: 3-4
Bills: 3-5
Bengals: 2-6
Colts: 4-4
Broncos: 4-3
Dolphins: 5-1
Browns: 3-2
Jaguars: 3-5
Chargers: 2-6
Jets: 4-4
Ravens: 2-5
Texans: 5-3
Chiefs: 4-2
Patriots: 4-4
Steelers: 3-5
Titans: 4-3
Raiders: 3-4
Divisional: 13-18 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 7-9 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 7-12 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 18-16 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 13-8 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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