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NFL Weekly Predictions
Week 16, 2007



I started the season hitting 60 percent. Following Thanksgiving, I had three brutal weeks. It felt good to bounce back. I went 10-6 overall, and hit eight of my 10 mult-unit plays, including all three Double Money Picks (selections of four units or more.) Let's hope this was a prelude to a strong finish. My picking record is at the bottom of this page. If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.



Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at St. Louis Rams (3-11)
Line: Steelers by 7.5. Total: 43.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Steelers -9.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Steelers -9.5.
Thursday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: RAMS: OUT: OT Orlando Pace, DE Leonard Little, CB Tye Hill.

Vegas needed to rebound after suffering a bloodbath last week, when the publicly backed games went 8-2. You had to figure there would be some larcenous activity and that the majority of underdogs would cover. Well, that was the case, as favorites were just 6-10. Publicly backed picks receiving at least 75 percent of the action were just 3-6. The fact that the Cowboys, Colts and Seahawks all failed to cover really helped out the books.

It's amazing how much the Thursday and Saturday night games this week have in common. Both feature suddenly beleaguered visitors in a funk that need to get back on track. Both road teams, who are favored by more than a touchdown, are getting some of the action, but not an overwhelming amount. The hosts, meanwhile, have had horrific seasons but have both covered two of their previous three contests. Neither stadium will be filled to capacity by the home crowd. And both games will be announced by Bryant "The Nasal Congestion" Gumbel.

If the Steelers lose this game, it's likely they will no longer be in first place in their division, as the Browns play woeful Cincinnati on Sunday. Furthermore, if the Titans can knock off the three-win Jets, Pittsburgh will be tied with Tennessee for the final wildcard spot. And, most importantly, it'll be less likely that I hit my Steelers Over 9 Wins prop bet that I placed at the beginning of the season. The world may as well explode.

As bad as everyone is making Pittsburgh out to be recently, all the team has done is lose to New England and Jacksonville. That's not exactly needing a prayer to beat the Lions and going down to the Eagles at home (more on that in a moment.) I think people are overreacting to the Steelers' recent losing streak like they've been playing horribly. But before New England they had won seven of eight, including a 31-28 thriller over the red-hot Browns. They're a veteran team, and I believe they'll bounce back.

The few Rams fans that sat in the Tax Payer Dome last week watched Green Bay dissect their pitiful defense. The Steelers will begin where the Packers left off, ramming the ball down St. Louis' throat with Willie Parker. The Rams, 29th versus the run, will have to bring extra men into the box, which will soften up the secondary for Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller. Meanwhile, Dick LeBeau's exotic defensive schemes will confuse Marc Bulger and his offensive line all night; St. Louis' front has given up 44 sacks on the year.

Teams hosting weeknight contests this year are 6-2 straight up and against the spread. That's the only thing that concerns me here. But I believe Pittsburgh, a veteran team, will play with more intensity and vigor than the Rams, who really have nothing to gain from beating an AFC foe. Besides, I'm willing to bet there will be more Steelers fans in the crowd than St. Louis supporters.

One more tidbit. While this line is either 7.5 or eight everywhere, it's nine in Pinnacle, perhaps the sharpest book on the Web. This can only be a good sign if you think the Steelers are going to cover.


The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
Whoa, how are the Steelers suddenly tied with the Browns for the division lead? They need to win this game. If they lose, they may not even make the playoffs because the Titans still have a shot.


The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Why is this line so low? It's not going to induce equal betting. The public's just going to pound Pittsburgh.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 87% (16,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 43-16 as a starter (35-24 ATS).
  • Marc Bulger is 5-3 ATS as a home dog.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Steelers Defense, Torry Holt.
  • Sit Em: Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Rams Defense.


    Prediction: Steelers 34, Rams 7
    Steelers -7.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 43.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Steelers 41, Rams 24.



    Dallas Cowboys (12-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-8)
    Line: Cowboys by 10.5. Total: 42.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Cowboys -12.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Cowboys -11.
    Saturday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: COWBOYS: OUT: WR Terry Glenn, NT Jason Ferguson. PANTHERS: OUT: QB Jake Delhomme.

    One of the funniest things I've ever heard was that Vinny Testaverde was out against the Seahawks with "general soreness." Poor Vinny. I think he's the first quarterback in NFL history who can't be cleared to play on the road if he forgets his cane at home. And forget about him suiting up when it's raining because the moisture really kills his arthritis. Of course, Vinny probably doesn't realize this because he may have Alzheimer's. On the plus side, though, he doesn't remember his last interception. But on the negative side, his diaper always needs changing at halftime.

    As I mentioned in the Steelers-Rams write-up, this contest is extremely similar to the Thursday night tilt. The Cowboys are sputtering, more so than Pittsburgh, as they barely beat the Lions and lost to the Eagles, both of whom are 6-8 right now. At least the Steelers went down to a pair of solid opponents. Everything went wrong for the Cowboys last week. It seemed like a dozen players got hurt; Jessica Simpson decreased Tony Romo's football IQ with her lack of intelligence; and I'm pretty sure Terrell Owens parked in a coach's spot and stole some toys from helpless orphans. And you thought the situation in Pittsburgh was bad...

    So, are the Cowboys on their way toward a downward spiral and a second-round exit in the postseason? I wouldn't put my money on it. In fact, I'd rather put my money on the Cowboys winning by at least two touchdowns on Saturday night. This line tells you where Vegas thinks this game is going to go. Everyone is down on Dallas, yet the books created this obscenely high spread in hopes that no one would bet on the visitor. The public predictably is split.

    I have to imagine that Dallas, a team with at least some playoff experience, gets back on track and has its collective mind focused on the Panthers, who knocked off the Seahawks in one of the larger upsets of the year. How did Seattle lose to Carolina, anyway? Well, it had to do with a trend/system I like to use where you take a quarterback making his first start. The Seahawks thought, "Who is this Mandy Moore guy starting for the Panthers? We're going to kill him!" Carolina, meanwhile, brought 200 percent to the table and consequently stunned the nation. Moore is no longer an unknown. In fact, because he played so well Sunday - he was 19-of-27 for 208 yards - the Cowboys will be prepared for him. That's basically the reason I don't think the Panthers will do anything offensively. That, and the lacking running game and receivers Moore will have at his disposal.

    Another thing keeping a lot of people off Dallas is Romo's thumb. Yet, as I mentioned, despite that injury and their recent futility, the Cowboys are a huge favorite. That's only convinces me more than they're the right side. The Panthers, despite shutting the Seahawks down, stink defensively. Unlike the Eagles, they cannot get to the quarterback (19 sacks). Romo will have all night to locate Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and company downfield.

    Once again, I'm concerned about the sterling record Thursday and Saturday night hosts have (6-2 SU and ATS). However, like the Edward Jones Dome, Carolina's stadium will have more Cowboys fans than Panthers supporters. That, along with Dallas' desperation of losing homefield advantage, will put me on the road team.


    The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.
    Everyone knows the Cowboys now need to win to maintain homefield advantage. But the Panthers aren't done either; they can certainly make the playoffs if they win out.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    The Cowboys on TV? Hmmm... I wonder where the money is going to be.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 66% (12,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Five Snap: Non-undefeated teams having a 5+ game winning streak snapped are 17-8 ATS the following game since 2002.
  • Cowboys are 12-2 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.
  • Cowboys are 7-1 ATS after a loss since 2006.
  • Tony Romo is 14-9 ATS as a starter.
  • Panthers are 25-15 ATS as an underdog the previous 40 instances.
  • Panthers are 14-25 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -13.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 50 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Jason Witten, Cowboys Defense.
  • Sit Em: DeAngelo Williams, DeShaun Foster, Panthers Defense.


    Prediction: Cowboys 31, Panthers 3
    Cowboys -10.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 42.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Cowboys 20, Panthers 13.



    Cleveland Browns (9-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-9)
    Line: Browns by 3. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Browns -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Browns -6.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Browns.
    Injuries: BROWNS: OUT: OT Ryan Tucker, C LeCharles Bentley, LB Willie McGinest. BENGALS: OUT: RB Chris Perry, DE Frostee Rucker, LB Odell Thurman, LB David Pollack, LB Rashad Jeanty.

    Thanks to a suggestion by e-mailer Arnold Lauer from Bloomfield, N.J., there will be a new category for the injury reports. Forget just Out, Doubtful, Questionable and Probable. I'm going to start using "PRISON: Michael Vick" from now on. This seems like the right move, unless you count the damage Vick took to his football career as an injury of its own. So anyway, this is going to be really useful when I type up the injury report for the Bengals every week. In fact, I should just stop calling them the "Cincinnati Bengals" and write "Prison Inmates." That, of course, wouldn't be fair to Chris Henry, who could probably get away with scouting the local high schools for freshman girls, providing them with alcohol and then taking their younger sisters on dates to Chuck E. Cheese in some other country. Yeah, I'm sure grown men in some Eastern European or Asian nation do this all the time.

    I received an IM from my friend Tom this morning, who said, "Have you seen the line on the Bengals-Browns game? I guess this means the Browns are going to lose. I feel sorry for them because they had a great season and they were a great story." Not everyone's as sharp as Tom; with Cleveland favored by just three points, 99 percent of the money in Vegas is on the visitor.

    How are so many people falling into this trap? Cincinnati just lost to the 49ers, while Cleveland has won four of five, impressively beating the Bills in a blizzard last week. But maybe that's just it. The Browns are coming off an extremely tough victory that essentially clinched them a postseason berth. The Bengals, meanwhile, were embarrassed on TV, and will be looking to atone for that loss.

    This also happens to be a heated rivalry. These two teams hate each other, thanks in part to the 51-45 shootout they participated in during their Week 2 tilt. In that contest, neither defense could stop the opposing aerial attack, as Carson Palmer and Derek Anderson combined for 729 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. I see no reason to believe things will be different this time around. Neither defense has improved much. The Bengals and Browns are 24th and 29th against the pass, respectively. The two defenses also have only 43 combined sacks.

    Many of you may be doubting Cincinnati's ability to light up the scoreboard, given the team's struggles the past three weeks. The Bengals have averaged just 14 points since beating the Titans, 35-6. However, two of their opponents were the 49ers and Steelers, who stop opposing aerial attacks efficiently. I have a feeling Cincinnati will get back on track.

    This may sound bizarre, but the Browns don't really need to win this game. Even if they lose, they'll still be ahead of Tennessee for the final wildcard spot. They host the 49ers next week, so they can just win that contest if they lose this one. I guess that's another reason for this extremely short line. The heartless Bengals may shock the world.


    The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
    The Browns need this game. The Bengals look dead.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    Three? Three!? Why is this line three!? Every single functional human being will be betting the Browns this weekend.
  • Percentage of money on Cleveland: 79% (93,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • History: Bengals have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Browns -3.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Possible snow, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Derek Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chris Henry.
  • Sit Em: Rudi Johnson, Both Defenses.


    Prediction: Browns 17, Bengals 16
    Bengals +3 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 43.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Bengals 19, Browns 14.



    Green Bay Packers (12-2) at Chicago Bears (5-9)
    Line: Packers by 9. Total: 33.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Packers -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Packers -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    Injuries: PACKERS: OUT: RB DeShawn Wynn, S Nick Collins. BEARS: OUT: G Ruben Brown, DT Dusty Dvoracek, CB Nathan Vasher, S Mike Brown.

    Speaking of stupid laws, I have to vent for a friend here. This guy wants to get into coaching, and has latched on to a local high-school basketball team as an assistant. The players and head coach appreciate his work. However, he has to get clearance from the city. So, he has to fill out a criminal-record check; send it to Harrisburg; wait three weeks for it to return; submit that along with a child-abuse check back to Harrisburg; wait another three weeks for that to come back; send all the forms downtown; and wait yet another three weeks for the paperwork to be processed. All of this just so he can be an assistant on some high-school basketball team in order to get his feet wet in the coaching ranks. The kicker is, by the time all the papers will be filed, the season's going to be over.

    Look, I know high schools are anal about this kind of stuff because there are weirdos like Chris Henry lurking about, but this has to stop. Granted, I'm not a parent, but I'll take weirdos over bureaucracy any day. Besides, it's easy to spot a child molester. Just look for the man with the patented molester mustache and twitching eyes. This is exactly why we need to profile people. Stop frisking the 85-year-old woman at the airport, and start concentrating on the tan man with a turban, an Osama-like beard and a trigger mechanism in his right hand!

    If we've learned anything from Week 15, it's that teams with proud veterans generally come through, and either pull an upset or keep things close as huge underdogs. The Eagles, who watched Wade Phillips laugh at their expense, shocked everyone by going into Dallas and beating the Cowboys. The Bears, suddenly double-digit underdogs against Tarvaris Jackson, nearly put an end to Minnesota's postseason aspirations, establishing a 13-3 lead before watching the Vikings score 17 unanswered points.

    Chicago once again will be playing for pride. Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Tommie Harris, Adewale Ogunleye and the rest of the proud veterans have to be saying, "How are we 9-point home dogs to a Packers team that we always dominate?" Domination is indeed correct; the Bears have beaten Green Bay five out of their previous seven meetings. In fact, one of the Packers' two losses this year came against Chicago.

    That said, I'd be a fool to tell you the Bears have matchup advantages over the Packers. They have injury-related holes in their secondary, which could prove to be disastrous against Brett Favre and his corps of emerging wide outs. Chicago, despite locking down Adrian Peterson, is 24th versus the run, meaning Ryan Grant could eclipse the century plateau. On the other side of the ball, the Bears' pathetic offensive line, which has surrendered 41 sacks this year, will be harassed by Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, both of whom have double-digit sack totals. Kyle Orton, who won't have a running game at his disposal, will consequently be forced into errant throws and untimely fumbles.

    But as I've repeatedly stated, picking games is more than just dissecting matchups. If it weren't, Ron Jaworski would be living on an island somewhere and hitting 80 percent. There's a reason he and other football analysts are no better than 50-50. Betting the NFL is all about finding favorable spots. I believe this is one for the Bears, a veteran team playing for pride. If they knocked off the Packers once, why can't they do it again?


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Packers would like to claim homefield advantage here, but it's not like they're desperate or anything. The Bears hate the Packers and would love to ruin their season.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
    The public loves the Packers. Look for at least 95 percent on them.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 74% (63,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • History: Bears have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 51-41 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Lovie Smith 4-0).
  • Two Roads (Win): Current and '06 head coaches are 81-63 ATS on the road following a road win.
  • Opening Line: Packers -9.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 22 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Brett Favre, Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Packers Defense.
  • Sit Em: Bears Offense.


    Prediction: Packers 16, Bears 13
    Bears +9 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 33.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Bears 35, Packers 7.



    Houston Texans (7-7) at Indianapolis Colts (12-2)
    Line: Colts by 7. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Colts -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Colts -14.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: TEXANS: DOUBTFUL: QB Matt Schaub*. COLTS: OUT: WR Marvin Harrison, DE Dwight Freeney, DT Anthony McFarland, OLB Rob Morris.

    I'm going to spend some of these leads commenting on how horrendous the NFL Network announcers and analysts are because I just can't take it anymore. Except for Rich Eisen and Cris Collinsworth, they all annoy me to no end. Let's take, for example, the guy who replaced Bryant Gumbel on Thursday night. I think his name was Tom Hammond or something. But honest to God, with the makeup and hairdo he was sporting, I thought he was a clown. Seriously, where were the pinata and birthday cakes? But I'm not going to bash a guy just by what he looked. I'm not really one to talk. I'll get to what Hammond said in a minute, but let me ask you this first. Did you know there was a 33rd team in the NFL? Yeah, I was shocked when I heard this as well. They're called the Houston Texas. I have no idea why anyone would name their football squad after a state (the noun, not the adjectival form). But yeah, Hammond said "Houston Texas" at least a dozen times during the broadcast. I'd rather have Emmitt Smith saying stuff like, "That can be a swing their way eventually. I just hate to be the team that they winned it against" (real quote) than hearing a play-by-play announcer repeatedly getting the name of a franchise wrong.

    Super-shady line No. 2. Why are the Colts favored by just seven points over the Texans? I made my line 14. For those of you who weren't paying attention to the Count on Sesame Street, that's a whole touchdown more. And once again, the public doesn't realize that this is a potential trap. As of Tuesday afternoon, 99 percent of the action is on Indianapolis. So, why the odd spread? Let's try and figure this out with a mini dissertation...

    Colts Sleepwalking: Indianapolis is in limbo. It can't catch the Patriots for homefield advantage. It cannot be surpassed by the Chargers and Steelers, given that both squads are three games behind them in the standings. So, the team's locked into the No. 2 seed. That means the Colts have absolutely nothing to play for. Sure, Peyton Manning and Anthony Gonzalez will attempt to gel, and Tony Dungy will look to get his young players more experience. However, the desire to win just won't be there.

    Powerful Trend: Glossing over the results over the past couple of years, the Colts have been terrible the final two weeks of the season. I posted this trend below, but I'd like to emphasize it because it's such a powerful number. Indianapolis is 0-8 against the spread in Weeks 16 and 17 since 2003. The reason being it had locked up either the first or second seed, and had nothing to play for. This only supports my Colts Sleepwalking argument.

    Houston's Super Bowl: Everything the Texans have done over the past few years via free agency and the draft has been to beat the Colts. It's why they drafted Mario Williams over Reggie Bush and Vince Young. It's also why they selected Amobi Okoye over Marshawn Lynch. Houston came within six of beating Indianapolis the last time these two teams played. And that was against a focused Colts squad.

    To Summarize... The Colts have nothing to play for. Meanwhile, beating the Colts for the second time in its existence could validate Houston's season, guaranteeing them a non-losing record for the first time in franchise history. Plus, it doesn't hurt that with tons of action on the host, the already-shady line dropped from nine to seven.


    The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
    The Colts are stuck in limbo. The Texans, meanwhile, cannot make the playoffs but they'd love to beat the Colts. In fact, defeating Indianapolis is the reason why they drafted so many defensive players.


    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    Seven? Seven!? Why is this line only seven!? The public's just going to pound the Colts.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 83% (74,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • History: Colts have won 9 of the 10 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 51-41 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Gary Kubiak 3-1).
  • Colts are 0-8 ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 since 2003.
  • Texans are 9-18 ATS after a win (3-2 in 2007).
  • Opening Line: Colts -7.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark.
  • Sit Em: Colts Defense.


    Prediction: Colts 17, Texans 13
    Texans +7 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Under 45 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Colts 38, Texans 15.



    Kansas City Chiefs (4-10) at Detroit Lions (6-8)
    Line: Lions by 5. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Lions -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Lions -4.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: CHIEFS: OUT: RB Larry Johnson*. LIONS: OUT: WR Roy Williams, S Daniel Bullocks.

    More NFL Network stuff. You know that phrase everyone loves to use when cornerbacks drop an easy interception? The exchange goes something like this: Announcer 1: "He drops an easy pick-six. Wow. It just fell right out of his hands." Announcer 2: "Well, that's why he's a cornerback - not a receiver! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!" Announcer 1: "That's a good one! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!" Announcer 2: "Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!" You hear this conversation five times per game. Well, Marshall Faulk took it to a whole new level on Saturday night. Following an easy dropped interception, Faulk reacted, "That's why I invented the saying, he's a cornerback for a reason." Oh, you invented it, eh? Is Faulk so dense that he really thinks he invented something really trivial, or is he some phrase kleptomaniac? Maybe we should all start claiming that we've invented things, much like Al Gore, who has proclaimed that he discovered the internet, global warming and Man-Bear Pig.

    Blah, can I not talk about this game? There's no benefit here. Both of these teams suck and have covered only one game the past five weeks. I don't feel strongly on either side, so I'm just wasting my time writing this, and your time because you're probably going to read whatever I write. I might as well go on a bizarre tangent about how the pool at my gym was so chlorinated that my entire body is itching right now. Swimming in it was no fun either; the water tasted like chalk. Not that I know what chalk tastes like, but I can imagine, you know?

    So anyway, where was I? Oh, this game. Right. Ugh. Well, I can't see myself laying points with the free-falling Lions, who are missing Roy Williams and have consequently become stagnant on offense. Plus, after starting 6-2, they've completely fallen apart. I don't know how they can bounce back from that. Still, they should be able to throw all over Kansas City's archaic secondary, which allowed Vince Young to look like Joe Montana. The Chiefs need to put pressure on Jon Kitna like the Chargers did last week. That's not unfathomable, as they have 32 sacks on the year.

    If Kansas City made Young look like Montana, the Lions permitted Philip Rivers to look like Montana using Roger Clemens' steroids. I don't have much faith in Brodie Croyle, but even he would find it difficult not to have a great game against a Detroit secondary that surrenders a league second-worst 258 passing yards per contest. The Lions also can't stop the run, so Kolby Smith may go berserk. Or he could completely disappoint everyone and gain 12 yards on 13 carries like he did against the Broncos. Like I said, I'm clueless as far as this game is concerned.

    The team that wins this game will be the one who actually shows up. The Chiefs played somewhat hard against the Titans last week, so maybe it'll be them. Who knows? I just can't lay more than three with either of these squads, so I'm going with Kansas City. When in doubt, fade the public and take the points, right?


    The Psychology. Edge: .
    These teams haven't won since 1865. Seriously, they're mentally and physically done.


    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    I guess people are going to bet the Lions. I don't know anymore.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 76% (42,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Lions are 9-15 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.
  • Jon Kitna is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Lions -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Brodie Croyle, Kolby Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, Jon Kitna, Shaun McDonald, Calvin Johnson.
  • Sit Em: Kevin Jones, Lions Defense.


    Prediction: Lions 41, Chiefs 38
    Chiefs +5 (1 Unit) -- Push; -$10
    Over 43.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Lions 25, Chiefs 20.



    Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
    Line: Jaguars by 13. Total: 38.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Jaguars -10.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Jaguars -11.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
    Injuries: RAIDERS: OUT: RB Justin Fargas*, RB Michael Bush.

    Even more NFL Network. I could mention Bryant Gumbel, who says completely obscure things like, "He was completely rebuffed on that one!" and "The die was pretty much cast." And then you have Steve Mariucci, who may as well declare, "Golly gee willickers, this is going to be a fun game for the fans to watch because both of these teams have such nice, great young men on each side." But let's talk about an NFL player for a second. Did you know that Bryant Young is suffering right now? That's understandable, given that his starting quarterback is a hand model and his team's record is currently 4-10. However, Deion Sanders reported the following on Saturday night, speaking in the first-person, as usual: "Deion Sanders talked to Bryant Young, and Deion Sanders has learned that this is the worst season ever emotionally for Bryant Young." Worst season ever emotionally? What does that mean? If he were happy every week, would this be his best season ever emotionally? Are there statistics for this? Is Young leading the league in tears shed on the practice field?

    Until recently, I was pretty dead wrong about the Jaguars all of the time. Well, not all of the time, but in certain situations. In years past, they would come up flat after a big game. Following a tough loss to the Colts last year, they went down to the Redskins despite being favored. They lost all three contests after they beat Indianapolis by rushing for 5.6 billion yards. There were countless situations like those that killed Jacksonville's momentum.

    That's not the case this year. I thought the Jaguars would look past Houston to their first tilt against the Colts, but I was wrong; they won 37-17. About a month ago, they had a Bills contest sandwiched between a victory over San Diego and a rematch at Indianapolis. Jacksonville prevailed once again, 36-14. If one is an accident and two is a trend, three is bona fide stupidity. I once again went against the Jaguars after they lost to the Colts, believing they'd show up flat. Oops. They clobbered the Panthers, 37-6.

    I'm not making the same error a fourth time. Jacksonville just went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers in an extremely physical football game, 29-22. The old Walt would have chosen the Raiders, claiming the Jaguars would be unfocused. But that's just not the character of this football team. Jacksonville still has business to take care of, as a win clinches a playoff spot for them. I think that because they're a mentally tough football team, they'll try extremely hard to dispel the Raiders so they can have a week of rest next Sunday.

    Oakland has been able to cover three of its past four contests because Justin Fargas has been a beast, totaling 331 rushing yards and three touchdowns in that span. However, Fargas is out for the year, meaning Josh McCown - and not JaMarcus Russell for some reason - will be asked to move the chains, which could prove to be disastrous for the Raiders. The Jaguars' opportunistic defense will undoubtedly force a few turnovers.

    I know Jacksonville is in a tough spot, and I'm aware that the public is pounding them. Yet, the line is extremely high - I thought it would be 11 - which indicates to me that the books are tired of losing money on the Jaguars. As I've indicated, I'm tired of being wrong about potential Jacksonville letdowns. It won't happen on Sunday, and I'm willing to bet one unit on it.


    The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
    The Jaguars haven't clinched the playoffs yet, but they're two up on Tennessee. They don't need to win this game. In fact, there could be a Let-Down Alert as Jacksonville is coming off a win at Pittsburgh.


    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    The line's high, meaning Vegas doesn't want action on the Jaguars. But still, it's not like the public is going to bet the Raiders.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 85% (75,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 23-33 ATS since 2002 (Lane Kiffin 2-0).
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -13.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: David Garrard, Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars Defense.
  • Sit Em: Raiders Offense and Defense.


    Prediction: Jaguars 34, Raiders 10
    Jaguars -13 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 38.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Jaguars 49, Raiders 11.



    New York Giants (9-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-7)
    Line: Giants by 2.5. Total: 32.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Giants -2.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Giants -4.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    Injuries: GIANTS: OUT: RB Derrick Ward, TE Jeremy Shockey*. BILLS: OUT: WR Peerless Price, TE Kevin Everett, DE Ryan Denney, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Jason Webster.

    OK, so maybe I'm not Eli Manning. Or maybe I am. Or maybe I just don't know when I'm picking well. If you're confused, I compared myself to Eli Manning last week. My picks, which were hitting at a 60-percent clip prior to Thanksgiving, slipped to 55 percent because of three horrible weeks. This also happened last year. Like Eli, it looked as though I could do all the right things in September, October and the early stages of November, but as soon as Turkey Day approached, I was destined to struggle. My dad, meanwhile, would slip random people $100 bills in an attempt to get me to pick games in New York instead of Philadelphia. Well, thankfully I bounced back, going 10-6 overall and 8-2 with my multi-unit plays. Hopefully I don't go back to tossing five picks and 40 incompletions this week.

    Speaking of Eli, I was befuddled by a quote of his after a loss to the Redskins: "You never know when you're having a good day..." Wow, is he that shellshocked by yet another horrible post-Thanksgiving performance? He doesn't even know when he's playing well? Poor kid, I think the media has killed his will to be an NFL player. Maybe the Arch can arrange for his son to play in San Diego, or something.

    You can rope the Giants into the same category as the Steelers and Cowboys. If you listen to the talking heads on ESPN, you'll get the impression that the sky is falling in all three cities. Everyone who was on New York's bandwagon is jumping off head first, exposing their collar bones as they hit the ground. Some people have even been hospitalized. In fact, the Seahawks and Buccaneers appear to be positioning themselves to play the Giants in the opening round of the playoffs.

    Let's take a look at how horrible the Giants have played prior to their loss to the desperate Redskins. In Week 14, they beat the Eagles by three despite being underdogs. Wow, how terrible. Why didn't Tom Coughlin just shoot himself for that? The Sunday before, New York beat the Bears. Again, just awful. I've never seen a team play so poorly. Now, the Giants did lose to the Vikings, but before that, they actually went into Detroit when the Lions were still respectable and won, 16-10. Three strikes and you're out. Giants, you suck!

    In case you couldn't tell by my sarcasm, the belief that the Giants are in a free fall is exaggerated and unwarranted. So what if they lost to the Redskins? Washington needed the win more than New York. Plus, the conditions were horrible, Jeremy Shockey suffered an injury in the middle of the game and Manning's other receivers kept dropping easy passes. Despite all that, the Giants have won two of their previous three games. Yeah, they can't play any worse right now.

    Cleveland was able to move the chains effectively despite last week's blizzard. Jamal Lewis, in the same mold as Brandon Jacobs, was able to pummel Buffalo's defensive front for 163 rushing yards. A week after being eliminated from postseason contention, the Bills may lack energy, which will definitely play a factor in their inability to tackle Jacobs. Manning, like Derek Anderson, will capitalize by repeatedly throwing past the first-down marker, amid no pressure in his face. The Bills have only 20 sacks on the year.

    Meanwhile, I don't expect the Bills to convert first downs as efficiently as New York. The Giants' four-defensive end formation will cause havoc for rookie Trent Edwards, who struggled mightily against Cleveland of all defenses.

    The Giants need to win one more game to clinch a playoff spot. They know this could be their last chance with New England coming up next week. As for the Bills, I already mentioned they could be flat after putting so much stock into the Cleveland game and coming up about 10 yards short of an essential postseason berth. Plus, I like the fact that the Giants, who play extremely well on the road (5-1 straight up and against the spread) are favored by three despite the fact no one believes in them anymore.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    I'm not sure if the Giants have to win this game. They're still two games up over the Redskins and Saints. Things may seem desperate after they lost to Washington, but don't call this a must-win because it's not.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Everyone is so down on the Giants right now, there's bound to be tons of action on the Bills.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 57% (61,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Giants are 11-4 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Bills are 14-7 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
  • Bills are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Opening Line: Giants -3.
  • Opening Total: 34.5.
  • Weather: Rain/snow, 42 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 20 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Amani Toomer, Giants Defense.
  • Sit Em: Trent Edwards, Bills Defense.


    Prediction: Giants 14, Bills 10
    Giants -2.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 32 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Giants 38, Bills 21.



    Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (7-7)
    Line: Saints by 3. Total: 47.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Saints -4.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Saints -6 (Eagles eliminated).
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.
    Injuries: EAGLES: OUT: LB Takeo Spikes. SAINTS: OUT: RB Reggie Bush, RB Deuce McAllister.

    A lot of news about the Pam Oliver-Donovan McNabb he said-she said business. Frankly, I don't care about this but apparently others do, given that there is a thread about it in my forum. I found it amusing that StarQB14 said McNabb is a "big turd who needs to be flushed down the toilet." I seriously laughed for 20 minutes after reading that. Anyway, I have the answer to this whole thing. I seriously believe McNabb said he wants to leave Philadelphia, but not to Oliver. I believe she stole Harry Potter's invisibility cloak, sneaked into a top-secret meeting between McNabb and Andy Reid, and recorded what they said. What exactly did she write down? You've come to the right place!

    Reid: Injuries... Uhh... Takeo... Uhh... McNabb: Umm... coach? Who are you talking to? There's no one here. Reid: Uhh... Brian... Knee... Uhh... McNabb: Coach, you never listen to me! Some fan just told me he wants me flushed down the toilet. He hurt my feelings! Reid: Uhh... cheese steaks... Uhh... hamburgers... McNabb: That's it! I'm going to leave this city and go to another team. I'm going to find a coach who cares about me and fans who don't boo me! Hmph! Reid: Uhh... please pass the ketchup... Uhh... time's yours...

    I've never seen so many people angry about a team after an enormous victory as a big underdog. Following the Eagles' 10-6 upset win over Dallas, the city of Philadelphia seemed to be divided into three factions. The first was upset that the Eagles ruined their shot at getting a top-10 draft pick that Andy Reid couldn't possibly screw up. The second was comprised of Brian Westbrook fantasy owners, who threw their television sets out the window when the Pro Bowl running back eschewed a touchdown by taking a knee at the Cowboys' 1-yard line. The third was disgruntled that the Eagles didn't play like that all year. Seriously, how does a team nearly knock off the Patriots on the road and defeat 11-2 Dallas in Texas Stadium, yet lose to the Bears and struggle against the Jets?

    Well, as I've been stating the past few weeks, Philadelphia is an easy team to figure out. It has major problems when expectations are high and it's supposed to win. But when its back is against the wall, the team shocks the world by playing beyond its ability. I have no idea why this is the case with the Eagles, but they've played this way all year.

    Philadelphia has been eliminated, so it has nothing to play for, right? If so, that means the Saints, who need to win to keep pace with the Vikings, will be victorious, right? I wouldn't count on it. If the Eagles aren't going to put forth as much effort as New Orleans, why is this line only three with more than three-quarters of the cash on host? Shouldn't it be favored by at least six? At first glance, it just doesn't make sense. However, looking deeper into it, Philadelphia will be out for revenge because the Saints knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Also, New Orleans could be in choke mode. I know it needs a victory, but I love the adage that says if a team needs a win, it's probably not that good to begin with.

    The Saints have looked impressive the last two weeks, but it should be noted that they beat the Cardinals and Falcons. Not exactly world beaters. Excluding Takeo Spikes, who's out for the year, the Eagles have finally gotten healthy on defense. They shut down the Cowboys last Sunday by getting pressure on Tony Romo and locking down on Terrell Owens, thanks to Lito Sheppard, one of the premier cornerbacks in the NFL. Sheppard will put the clamps on Marques Colston, allowing Philadelphia's front four to pressure Brees and limit Aaron Stecker on the ground.

    New Orleans, meanwhile, cannot stop the pass. Donovan McNabb, who finally showed some signs of mobility, will expose a horrific secondary, much like Kurt Warner did last week. Warner did a good job putting points on the board, but the problem was his lackluster defense. As noted in the previous paragraph, McNabb won't have that same issue.

    I'm still dumbfounded by Shady Spread No. 3. The public is pounding the Saints, yet the spread is just sitting there at a field goal. I think this is another situation where the Eagles surprise everyone, get revenge and win when they're not supposed to. New Orleans, on the other hand, will choke its playoff dreams away.


    The Psychology. Edge: Saints.
    The Eagles are eliminated, so they have nothing to play for. The Saints' playoff life is on the line. However, this is a Revenge Situation for the visitor, as New Orleans knocked it out of the postseason last year.


    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    The Eagles are done, yet the line is still -3. Tons of action on the Saints.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 64% (54,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • Two Roads (Win): Current and '06 head coaches are 81-67 ATS on the road following a road win.
  • Eagles are 45-30 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Donovan McNabb is 28-17 ATS on the road since 2001.
  • Saints are 18-35 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Saints are 11-25 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
  • Saints are 7-17 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Drew Brees is 17-7 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Opening Line: Saints -3.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Brian Westbrook, Kevin Curtis, Eagles Defense.
  • Sit Em: L.J. Smith, Aaron Stecker.


    Prediction: Eagles 27, Saints 24
    Eagles +3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 47 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Eagles 38, Saints 23.



    Atlanta Falcons (3-11) at Arizona Cardinals (6-8)
    Line: Cardinals by 10. Total: 44.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Cardinals -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Cardinals -9.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
    Injuries: FALCONS: PRISON: QB Michael Vick. CARDINALS: OUT: QB Matt Leinart, OT Oliver Ross. QUESTIONABLE: WR Larry Fitzgerald*, WR Anquan Boldin*.

    Two commercials that annoy me. First, the Victoria Secret one where some hot blonde sings "Santa Baby." I really hate it because it doesn't show her entire body. Whenever this ad comes on, I always yell at the TV, "Pan down! Damn it, pan down, son of a..." Luckily, it's cold out and my windows are closed, so my neighbors don't think I'm a raging lunatic. The commercial that irks me more is the one where the two guys are in a car, and the driver tells the system, "Play artist Smashing Pumpkins." Nothing wrong there, until the passenger interrupts, "Play artist Michael Bolton!" Ah, ha! As I've stated repeatedly on this site, anyone who likes (or even pretends to like) Michael Bolton - think of the Miller Lite commish - is not to be trusted. It really bothers me that this scumbag got paid to pretend he likes Michael Bolton. He should pay all of the viewers instead. I would never say I like Michael Bolton, not even for 100 billion dollars. I would rather "dance wit Chris Henry's dates" and consequently be sentenced to prison than declare that I love Michael Bolton, even if it weren't true.

    I had to go into the archive for this pick. Last week I mentioned that teams that saw their head coaches get fired in the middle season always flopped the following Sunday. Butch Davis, Dave Wannstedt and Steve Mariucci all watched their squads lose and fail to cover from their couches after they were dismissed by their respective front offices. But how did the Browns, Dolphins and Lions react after the initial week? Well, I came up with mixed results. Cleveland completely went into a tailspin, failing to meet the number until a month later. Detroit actually rallied around Dick Jauron, which isn't a surprise, and covered three of its final four contests. Meanwhile, Miami responded similarly to the Lions, beating the spread in five of seven attempts.

    Now, are the Falcons like the Browns, or are they like the Lions and Dolphins? Well, they haven't covered since beating the Panthers on Veteran's Day, and given what the team went through with the whole Michael Vick situation, and that their roster is comprised of malcontents who support a dog-drowner, I have to believe they'll finish the season like Cleveland. But that's pure speculation.

    On the other hand, you can opine that Atlanta hated Bobby Petrino and will rally around in the wake of his firing. A plausible prediction, and if I'm right, the Falcons will be able to score on a Cardinals squad that was just eliminated from playoff contention. Arizona has to be flat, right? It put so much stock in the Saints game and lost by seven. Now, they have nothing to play for. If the Falcons decide to rally, their receivers may actually be focused and will consequently catch some passes for a change. We all saw that the Cardinals had extreme difficulty against the pass last week.

    I'd normally say that the Cardinals would be able to score on one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but if I'm right about them being flat, they could be responsible for a few turnovers in this contest. Again, this is pure speculation, but in two of the three most recent instances when a coach has been fired mid-season, the team has responded pretty well after the initial week. Besides, I have serious issues laying double digits with Arizona.

    Honestly, I wouldn't recommend betting this game unless you have access inside Atlanta's locker room. But then again, if that's the case, chances are you're a low-life scumbag who supports someone who kills dogs for pleasure. And if that's true, I hope you get this pick wrong.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Cardinals' season is over. The Falcons seem lost in this whole Bobby Petrino mess. Blah.


    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    No one's betting the Falcons right now. No one.
  • Percentage of money on Arizona: 77% (49,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 104-73 ATS on the road following a road loss.
  • Cardinals are 11-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Roddy White, Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin.
  • Sit Em: Alge "Five Hot Dogs, No Catches" Crumpler, Michael Vick, Bobby Petrino.


    Prediction: Cardinals 18, Falcons 12
    Falcons +10 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 43.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Cardinals 30, Falcons 27.



    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at San Francisco 49ers (4-10)
    Line: Buccaneers by 6. Total: 36.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Buccaneers -12.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Buccaneers -10.5.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Injuries: BUCCANEERS: OUT: RB Cadillac Williams, RB Michael Pittman, OT Luke Petitgout, DE Patrick Chukwurah, CB Torrie Cox. 49ERS: OUT: QB Alex Smith, DE/OLB Manny Lawson.

    A few weeks ago, I had a weird conversation over instant messenger with some spam-link advertiser whose screen name was "Weblinkcohit." I posted it in my Week 11 picks. Well, he IMed me again! Check out how odd this is:

  • Weblinkcohit: I have to give garden link of pr 2. Help me plz.
  • Me: How can I help you?
  • Weblinkcohit: I need a garden sites which is instantly add your link.
  • Me: Garden sites?
  • Weblinkcohit: Ya. If u can help me i ll be greatfull to u.
  • Me: What do you need me to do?
  • Weblinkcohit: If u have garden sites data so plz send me.
  • Me: Where would one acquire garden sites data?
  • Weblinkcohit: But on a catagory u can put my link.
  • Me: OK, and what would I get in return?
  • Weblinkcohit: I give u anything u want. Don't worry firest i ll send u.

    Ummm... OK!? Does anyone have garden sites data? I'd like for someone to be "greatfull" to me.

    Anyway, I've been out to the West Coast only once. I was 8 years old. I went to Phoenix for a week. On the trip, I had food poisoning and I got sick looking down into the Grand Canyon. Plus, one of the hotels we stayed in sucked big time - it smelled like coffee and sweaty socks.

    So, what in the world does that have to do with this game? More than you think. See, if an 8-year-old has problems flying out west, how are men who play a taxing game of football supposed to do it? Playing an NFL contest on the West Coast may not seem that difficult to you, but don't tell that to the Buccaneers. In their franchise history, they're 4-25 straight up on the Pacific Coast. That's 4-25! No wonder this team just returned its first kickoff ever.

    I have a feeling Tampa Bay will be 4-26 when all is said and done. Not that it is worse than the 49ers. It's just that it has no reason to play hard.

    The Buccaneers have clinched their division, meaning they're not going to exert any unnecessary effort. Don't give me crap about them jockeying for a third seed as opposed to a fourth. Just look at how poorly the Seahawks played last week. And I'm not even sure the Buccaneers wouldn't want to play the Giants instead of the Vikings. The way everyone's bad-mouthing New York, it seems like the No. 4 seed is more lucrative than the No. 3.

    Matchup-wise, Tampa Bay has all of the advantages. They're pretty obvious, so I'm not going to state them all. But the Buccaneers' secondary versus Shaun Hill and his lackluster receivers seems too good to be true if you're a Tampa fan. However, picking games is much more than just studying matchups. For instance, you have to ask yourself why the Buccaneers are favored by less than the Bengals were at San Francisco. You have to ask yourself why this spread has moved down to six in some places despite all of the action on the visitor. You also have to ask yourself how motivated Tampa Bay will be to win this game. And finally, you have to ask yourself if you can lay a touchdown with a 31-year-old franchise that has a grand total of four victories on the West Coast.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    The Buccaneers don't really have anything to play for right now, as they've clinched their division already.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    So, the Buccaneers are favored by less than the Bengals were over the 49ers? Huh?
  • Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 78% (61,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Two Homes (Win): Mike Nolan is 0-3 ATS at home following a home win.
  • Buccaneers are 7-19 ATS on the road after a win under Jon Gruden.
  • Buccaneers are 4-25 SU on the West Coast.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Earnest Graham, Joey Galloway, Buccaneers Defense, Frank Gore.
  • Sit Em: 49ers Receivers.


    Prediction: 49ers 16, Buccaneers 10
    49ers +6 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Correct; +$500
    Under 36.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    49ers 21, Buccaneers 19.



    Baltimore Ravens (4-10) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5)
    Line: Seahawks by 11. Total: 39.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Seahawks -10.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Seahawks -10.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
    Injuries: RAVENS: OUT: QB Steve McNair, QB Kyle Boller, LB Dan Cody. SEAHAWKS: OUT: WR Deion Branch, DT Marcus Tubbs.

    It's time for more grammar lessons from Emmitt Smith! When dating a girl, don't try these in front of her father unless you want to be staring down the barrel of a shotgun!

    1. "And then he come back and throw another pass and he drop it." (Commentary: Emmitt will be applying for the play-by-play job for Monday Night Football games. That's way more elaborate than how Mike Tirico describes things.)
    2. "It takes a coach who know how to communicate." (Commentary: And it takes an analyst who "know" how to communicate too - unless you're working for ESPN.)
    3. "He's giving them all the confidences they need... he giving them the confidence that he need." (Commentary: It's a good thing that he's giving them more than one confidence. Everyone needs a few confidences , and needs a confidence in return at the same time. Whatever that means.)

    So, it took Vegas until Thursday night to post a line on this game. Good job, losers. I don't understand what took them so long. Did they honestly think Kyle Boller would make a huge difference? Personally, I think the Ravens are better off starting 10 players on offense and going without a quarterback, rather than starting Brian Billick's secret lover.

    I'm going to make this short and sweet. There are three reasons I absolutely love Baltimore. First, it's obvious that this game means nothing to the Seahawks. They're locked into the third or fourth spot. Their penalty for moving down to four? Battling the mighty New York Giants. Oh, the horror. Mike Holmgren will be more concerned with resting his players than winning this contest.

    The second reason has to do with Troy Smith. If you've been reading this site, you know I love going with quarterbacks making their first start. In those situations, the line is skewed, and you can get great value. The opposition doesn't take the team seriously, thinking it can simply manhandle the young signal-caller. The squad, meanwhile, puts forth extra effort, knowing it needs to exert more energy to win. We've seen this multiple times this year. Think Luke McCown over New Orleans, Quinn Gray over Tampa Bay and Sage Rosenfels over the Buccaneers.

    The third reason I love Baltimore has to do with respectability. In the wake of allowing the Dolphins to win their first game, the Ravens have become the laughing stock of the NFL. They're still a proud, veteran group with great leadership on defense. I think they'll come through and easily cover this number. I wouldn't even be shocked if they won straight up.


    The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
    Like the Buccaneers, the Seahawks have nothing to play for. The Ravens, meanwhile, may look to redeem themselves after losing to winless Miami.


    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    The Ravens just lost to the Dolphins. Where do you think the public is going?
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 84% (37,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 104-73 ATS on the road following a road loss (Brian Billick 5-3).
  • Crappy Quarterback: Troy Smith is 0-0 ATS on the road.
  • Five Snap: Non-undefeated teams having a 5+ game winning streak snapped are 17-8 ATS the following game since 2002 (Mike Holmgren 1-0).
  • Ravens are 10-18 ATS as an underdog the previous 28 instances.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Rain, 45 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Willis McGahee, Matt Hasselbeck, Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em: Mark Clayton, Derrick Mason.


    Prediction: Seahawks 23, Ravens 22
    Ravens +11 (4 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Over 39 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Seahawks 27, Ravens 6.



    New York Jets (3-11) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)
    Line: Titans by 8.5. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Titans -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Titans -9.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: JETS: OUT: WR Laveranues Coles, LB Jonathan Vilma. TITANS: OUT: WR David Givens, CB Pacman Jones, S Chris Hope.

    More quotes from Emmitt, but before I get to that, I have to say that I loved the exchange between he and Adrian Peterson following Monday night's game. Emmitt was talking to Peterson about how to become a great running back in the NFL, and you could tell that Peterson was soaking everything in and enjoying the moment. It was really awesome to watch Emmitt pass down his knowledge to someone who looks like he can become one of the all-time greats. Anyway, these quotes aren't grammatical errors. These were just either really humorous or asinine:

    1. "I'm going with the Pats ... they are an all-around good ball club." (Commentary: Gee, you think? Emmitt said this when he picked the Patriots over the Jets. Maybe that's how I should make my selections. I'm taking Patriots -22 because they're an all-around good ball club.)
    2, "They need to right the score to get revenge." (Commentary: Right the ship, right the score. Tomato, tomahto.)
    3. "Let's not judge the Giants until we're in the bottom half of the season." (Commentary: Bottom half? Bottom half!? I knew there was a first half and a second half, but now Emmitt's telling us that there's a bottom half of an NFL season. And here I was thinking the season went from September to early February. When does the bottom half of the season take place?)

    Funny that Vegas posted a line on this game despite not knowing who the quarterback was going to be for the Jets. Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Brad Smith... As my dad's co-worker used to say, "Same s**t, different toilet." At least that's how the books are regarding the situation. I personally think Clemens, despite his pick-six against the Patriots, gives the Jets the better chance of winning this game. The team just seems to play harder for him. Pennington, meanwhile, is a horrible teammate, a pompous jerk and a turnover-prone quarterback with a Marcy Darcy haircut.

    That said, I feel the same way as Vegas does about the Jets' situation. I don't think it matters who starts this game. New York played out of its mind last week in a game it considered its Super Bowl. They put everything into their battle with New England, much like the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers recently. What those three squads have in common is that they all failed to cover the week after battling the undefeated Patriots.

    If the Jets really are mentally and physically exhausted from the New England game, I'm not sure what their motivation will be here. Meanwhile, the Titans, who would have covered their previous three contests if they hadn't blown a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to the Chargers, need to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt. New York cannot stop the run or get to the quarterback, so look for LenDale White and Chris Brown to pound the opposing front seven, setting up play-action and scrambling opportunities for Vince Young. The Titans should be able to score at will as long as their receivers don't drop too many easy passes. The same can't be said for the Jets, who will not be able to run the ball into the wide body of Albert "The Hamstring" Haynesworth. New York's offensive line, guilty of surrendering 44 sacks this year, will be embarrassed by Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch all afternoon.

    I make it seem like I'm confident that the Titans will play extremely hard against a Jets squad that figures to be flat. Well, there is a catch here. If the Steelers and Browns both win - and they play before this contest - Tennessee will be eliminated from the playoffs. That's what makes it so difficult to handicap this game. I've stated above that I believe Cleveland will have problems with the Bengals, so I think there's a good chance the Titans will have something to play for when 4 p.m. rolls around.


    The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
    The Titans still have a shot at the playoffs, but they need to win out.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    The Jets aren't a public team at all, so you could see lots of people betting the Titans.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 55% (54,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 104-73 ATS on the road following a road loss.
  • Jets are 16-27-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 46 instances (9-10 under Eric Mangini).
  • Vince Young is 14-10 as a starter (15-9 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Titans -9.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: Showers, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: LenDale White, Titans Defense.
  • Sit Em: Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Thomas Jones, Jets Defense.


    Prediction: Titans 27, Jets 6
    Titans -8.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 37 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Titans 10, Jets 6.



    Miami Dolphins (1-13) at New England Patriots (14-0)
    Line: Patriots by 22. Total: 45.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Patriots -31.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Patriots -28.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.
    Injuries: DOLPHINS: OUT: QB Trent Green, RB Ronnie Brown, S Yeremiah Bell. PATRIOTS: OUT: WR Troy Brown, LB Rosevelt Colvin.

    Before I discuss game, take a look at my Week 16 Look-Alike Pictures featuring Ross Perot and the guy from Home Improvement.

    I think this is the first time all year that the public isn't backing the Patriots. I find it really hard to believe, but the overwhelming majority of the money in Vegas is on the Dolphins. People are down on New England. If you look through various message boards across the internet, including my own, you'll see that many people don't even think they're going to make it to the Super Bowl - all because of close calls against the Ravens, Eagles and Jets. Yet, the public seems to dismiss that the Patriots completely dismantled the Steelers.

    When you're undefeated and feeling unchallenged, it's hard to get up against crappy teams. New England knew it could beat Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York at about 40-percent intensity. So, does that mean the team won't play as hard against the Dolphins? Well, that's a possibility, but it could be Tom Brady and Randy Moss' last chance to break some records, given that the Giants, whom they play next week, are a decent team.

    But that's not the reason I think the Patriots completely demolish the 22-point spread. That has more to do with Miami's mentality going into this contest. Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and the rest of the Dolphins openly admitted that the Baltimore game was their Super Bowl. After the Cleo Lemon-to-Greg Camarillo clincher, all the players celebrated as if they just won the championship. Owner Wayne Huizenga, who stated that winning his first game in 14 tries was like winning the Super Bowl, cried and hugged everyone in his luxury suite. The Dolphins, who undoubtedly celebrated like college kids the next few nights, will not be prepared for the Patriots. I'll be shocked if they even get off the plane.

    The bottom line is the Dolphins won't be able to bring the same intensity as the Ravens, Eagles and Jets did against New England because they just played their Super Bowl a few days ago. You can't have two Super Bowls in a row. That's exactly why both Baltimore and Philadelphia failed to cover the week after losing to the Patriots. New England will have this covered by the middle of the second quarter.


    The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.
    The Dolphins players, coaches and owner were crying after last week's win. There's no way they're going to win this week.


    The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
    It's odd to say that 22 is low, but that's what this line is. The public is going to pound the Pats.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 66% (54,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 12 meetings.
  • Crappy Quarterback: Cleo Lemon is 1-2 ATS on the road.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 51-41 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Cam Cameron 0-2).
  • Patriots are 24-10 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Patriots are 38-24 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
  • Patriots are 16-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Tom Brady is 95-26 as a starter (76-43 ATS).
  • Opening Line: Patriots -22.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 31 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Patriots Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: Dolphins Offense and Defense.


    Prediction: Patriots 59, Dolphins 0
    Patriots -22 (3 Units - Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Over 45.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Patriots 28, Dolphins 7.



    Washington Redskins (7-7) at Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
    Line: Vikings by 6.5. Total: 40.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Vikings -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Vikings -4.5.
    Sunday, 8:15 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.
    Injuries: REDSKINS: OUT: QB Jason Campbell, OT Jon Jansen.

    I wrote this lead a few weeks ago but completely forgot to post it. What happened in the Sean Taylor murder is a strong case for the removal of guns from the streets of our country. It turns out the four people who broke into Taylor's house were just looking to robbing the place. If guns weren't so easily attainable, there's a good chance that the robbers would not have possessed a gun. Sure, there's always a chance they would have, but the likelihood of that would have been significantly lower. Other first-world countries like Japan don't allow anyone to have guns, with the exception of police officers. Their crime rates are much lower than ours. Clearly they're doing something right.

    And now, stepping off my soapbox, it's really bizarre as to why the four idiots broke into Taylor's house. They simply wanted revenge because Taylor wouldn't hang out with them anymore. Doesn't that sound like something a 9-year-old (think Eric Cartman) would do? What a bunch of losers. Maybe these clowns should have been on the Benchwarmers instead of David Spade and Jon Heder. I know you can't get life for unpremeditated murder, but that sentence should be warranted for childish stupidity.

    Adrian Peterson gave me about five heart attacks and seven strokes on Monday night. Praying he wouldn't break a long touchdown and help the Vikings cover, Peterson scared me the living daylights out of me. He's such a powerful and fast runner, and he's so exciting to watch, I simply cannot believe six teams passed on him. Then again, two NBA squads whiffed on Michael Jordan, which goes to show that just because you have a front-office job for a sports team doesn't mean you're necessarily qualified for the position.

    Peterson failed to break the century mark against the Bears, a trend which may repeat itself this week. The Redskins are sixth versus the run, so they have the personnel to limit one of the league's best rushers to about 70 or 80 yards. If that's the case, Tarvaris Jackson will once again be called upon to move the chains. It's hard to decide whether he did a good job on Monday night; while he made some great throws downfield, he also tossed three picks, two of which were his fault. Jackson hasn't even played a full season yet, so asking him to manage a must-win game against a tough secondary could be way too much.

    Todd Collins - I have a really strong urge to call him Tom Collins, which is actually making me thirsty for gin - on the other hand, was extremely efficient against the Giants, which is to be expected from a veteran quarterback. Like Peterson, Clinton Portis won't find any running lanes against the league's second-best ground defense. That means Collins will need to move the chains on his own with safe throws to Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and Antwaan Randle El. I definitely trust him over Jackson.

    The Vikings are a young team with no playoff experience. Laying a touchdown with them is irresponsible, given that there's a good chance they may choke. The Redskins, a live underdog, has postseason experience, as it advanced to the second round in 2005, nearly knocking off the eventual NFC champion Seahawks. Call me crazy, but I think grabbing 6.5 points with a season team and a veteran quarterback is the way to go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Both teams obviously need to win to make the playoffs. Game on.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    It doesn't seem like the Redskins are a public team. People have fallen in love with Adrian Peterson.
  • Percentage of money on Washington: 51% (69,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Two Roads (Win): Current and '06 head coaches are 81-67 ATS on the road following a road win.
  • Redskins are 3-14 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Chris Cooley, Redskins Defense.
  • Sit Em: Clinton Portis.


    Prediction: Redskins 20, Vikings 17
    Redskins +6.5 (2 Units - Money Pick) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 41 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Redskins 32, Vikings 21.



    Denver Broncos (6-8) at San Diego Chargers (9-5)
    Line: Chargers by 9. Total: 47.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15): Chargers -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15): Chargers -8.
    Monday, 8:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    Injuries: BRONCOS: OUT: WR Javon Walker, WR Rod Smith, C Tom Nalen.

    Before I get to my Monday night dissertation, I want to mention that you can compete against me and others by picking football games at the Picking Forum. You'll be able to pick every game starting Wednesday afternoon, and you can post comments for each contest as well. No prizes, but you do get bragging rights.

    Another Pride Game? If you think I like the Broncos because this is yet another game where a big underdog with proud veterans is playing for respect, you've read my mind. John Lynch, Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, Nate Webster and Ian Gold won't take too kindly to being 9-point dogs to a hated divisional rival. And though Denver has been eliminated from postseason contention, it would love to end San Diego's four-game winning streak.

    What Is San Diego Playing For? The Chargers have clinched the AFC West, meaning they are guaranteed at least one home game. They cannot catch the Colts, so it's either settling for a No. 3 or 4 seed. Do you honestly think they care whether they're third or fourth? That's the difference between playing the Jaguars and the Browns, both of whom are hot. Plus, if you're a professional athlete, you probably have the confidence that you can knock off any opponent in your way. Sure, Jacksonville is slaugherting everyone in its path, but San Diego is well aware that it has beaten its previous four foes by an average margin of 18.8 points per game.

    Other than pride, does Denver have anything to play for? At first glance it wouldn't appear so because it has no shot at the playoffs. However, think back to Oct. 7, when the Chargers completely embarrassed the Broncos at Mile High, 41-3. Revenge is a second motivational tool the visitor will use in this contest.

    But San Diego Is On Fire... Believe me, I'm well aware that the Chargers have won and covered their last four, five of six, and eight of 10. But lets look at whom they've beaten recently. Last week, the Lions, who never win on the road, were flat after coming up short against the Cowboys in their Super Bowl. Two Sundays ago, the Chargers needed an unprecedented 14-point, fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Titans in overtime. The week prior, the beleaguered Chiefs were victimized, 24-10. And before that, San Diego clobbered the hapless Ravens. Sandwiched in between losses to the Jaguars and Vikings, the Chargers upset the Colts, who were flat after losing to the Patriots.

    None of those victories are overly impressive. Sure, the Tennessee comeback was nice. And beating Indianapolis is never an easy feat, although the Colts would have won if Adam Vinatieri nailed a chip-shot field goal at the end. I know the Chargers have simply beaten whom they've played, but they haven't really done anything to wow me.

    But Denver Sucks... The Broncos have lost three of four. However, I predicted they would have problems with the Texans because Gary Kubiak knew how to gameplan against Mike Shanahan. Losing to the Raiders and Bears is inexcusable, though the latter defeat occurred because Shanahan foolishly kicked to Devin Hester. But in between those losses, the Broncos clobbered the Chiefs by 34 and knocked off the Titans by double digits.

    Jay Cutler is erratic. One week he'll complete every pass and toss four touchdowns. The next, he'll have a few turnovers and no scores. I have to believe he'll bounce back from a mediocre performance at Houston against San Diego's 22nd-rated secondary. The Chargers, 18th versus the run, may struggle to contain Selvin Young and Travis Henry.

    Vegas Implications: As predicted, the public is pounding the red-hot Chargers and fading the ice-cold Broncos. This sets up a good situation where we can buy the bad news, which I've noted isn't as horrible as everyone makes it out to be. With more than 90 percent of the action on San Diego, the line has moved from nine down to 8.5 in some shops. Why do the books want even more money on the Chargers? You have to ask yourself that if you're thinking of pounding the host.

    LaDainian Tomlinson May Rush For 300 Yards... The Broncos are dead last against the run. How is LaDainian Tomlinson not going to gain 300 yards? I'll admit that I'm scared to death of him because I'm siding with Denver. But as I've noted many times, picking games is more than just delving into matchups.

    The Broncos seem to be in a good spot. This is a heated rivalry with a veteran team playing for pride. The Chargers, who have nothing to gain with a victory, could be flat. And by taking the nine points, you're fading Norv Turner, who has the ability to screw up any game with his decision-making.


    The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.
    The Chargers don't really have anything to play for now that they've clinched the AFC West. The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a Revenge Situation; they lost to San Diego, 41-3, at home earlier this season.


    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
    The red-hot Chargers are likely to garner most of the action.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 83% (160,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Home Team has won 9 of the last 13 meetings.
  • Two Roads (Loss): Current and '06 head coaches are 104-73 ATS on the road following a road loss (Mike Shanahan 6-9).
  • Opening Line: Chargers -9.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. Light wind.


    Fantasy Spin.
  • Start Em: Jay Cutler, Selvin Young, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.


    Prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 24
    Broncos +9 (5 Units - Double Money Pick) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Over 47 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Chargers 23, Broncos 3.


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Anti-Public Parlay: Bengals +3, Texans +7, Eagles +4 (bought 0.5), Falcons +11 (bought 0.5), 49ers +6, Broncos +9 (.5 Units to win 17.3) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Live Dog: Texans +255 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Live Dog: Chiefs +190 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Live Dog: Eagles +155 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$310
  • Live Dog: 49ers +220 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$440
  • Live Dog: Broncos +300 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$200
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marshawn Lynch +500 - Lynch will be the opening-day starter for the Bills and will have the luxury of running behind a huge offensive line. Running backs make the quickest transition into the NFL, and Lynch is the only rookie who's guaranteed a starting gig. (1 Unit)
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Field +700 - James Jones? Jacoby Jones? Who knows, Marques Colston came out of nowhere last year. (1 Unit)
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jamaal Anderson +1400 - Unlike Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson will be starting on Day 1. With teams concerned about John Abraham, Anderson seems like he could be poised for a double digit-sack campaign. (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Patriots 5/2 - Not great odds, but they'll get the job done. (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl: Steelers 22/1 - Getting a great deal here. (.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Chiefs Under 7.5 -155 - Larry Johnson will get hurt, the defense will suck and Herm Edwards will lose his mind. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Dolphins Under 7 -125 - I've talked about the Dolphins plenty of times already. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Steelers Over 9 -105 - The Steelers went 8-8 with a damaged Ben Roethlisberger. No way they win less than 10 this season. (1.5 Units)
  • Regular Season Wins: Giants Under 8 -165 - No way they get to 8-8 this year. (1.5 Units)
  • Player Prop: Larry Johnson Under 1,700 Total Rushing Yards - Since Eric Dickerson, no running back who has carried the ball 385 or more times has finished in the top 10 in rushing. Johnson had 416 carries, the most in the history of the NFL. (2 Units)
  • Player Prop: Wes Welker Over 675 Total Receiving Yards - Wes Welker has been Tom Brady's new go-to-guy in training camp and preseason. I'm expecting a big year from him. (2 Units)
  • More prop picks will be listed here.



    Second-Half Bets
    Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.

  • Second-half picks will be listed here.



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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2013): 1-0 (+$700)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2013): 0-0 ($0)
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    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-7
    Bears: 7-7
    Bucs: 8-8
    49ers: 8-9
    Eagles: 7-10
    Lions: 11-5
    Falcons: 5-10
    Cardinals: 10-5
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 8-8
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 7-9
    Redskins: 9-7
    Vikings: 7-9
    Saints: 13-4
    Seahawks: 9-10
    Bills: 12-4
    Bengals: 8-8
    Colts: 11-6
    Broncos: 8-11
    Dolphins: 11-5
    Browns: 3-13
    Jaguars: 7-8
    Chargers: 11-6
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 9-6
    Texans: 10-5
    Chiefs: 6-11
    Patriots: 10-8
    Steelers: 6-10
    Titans: 5-7
    Raiders: 9-7
    Divisional: 51-44 (2011-12: 90-93)
    2x Game Edge: 14-22 (2011-12: 41-40)
    2x Psych Edge: 35-26 (2011-12: 57-54)
    2x Vegas Edge: 40-38 (2011-12: 89-104)
    2x Trend Edge: 24-23 (2011-12: 48-55)
    Double Edge: 9-10 (2011-12: 17-23)
    Triple Edge: 1-0 (2011-12: 1-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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