NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




New England Patriots (3-0) at New York Giants (1-2)
Line: Giants by 3.

Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

Bill Belichick’s Week 4 preseason record is only 7-9, but I think the Patriots are the play here because in a battle between Jacoby Brissett and Ryan Nassib, I like the former. Besides, Ben McAdoo hasn’t shown a particular interest for winning exhibition games. Throw in the fact that we’re getting a field goal, and I like New England for a small play.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Bill Belichick is 39-30 in preseason games.
  • Bill Belichick is 7-9 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ben McAdoo is 1-2 in preseason games.
  • Ben McAdoo is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Patriots 20, Giants 17
    Patriots +3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110






    Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 4.

    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I’m not crazy about laying more than a field goal in the preseason, but this seems like the right time to do it. The Panthers seem like the right side, as Derek Anderson and Joe Webb are far superior compared to Landry Jones. It also helps that Mike Tomlin is just 3-13 in the preseason the past four years.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 22-19 in preseason games (3-13 last 3 years).
  • Mike Tomlin is 6-3 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 12-11 in preseason games.
  • Ron Rivera is 3-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Steelers 10
    Panthers -4 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200







    Baltimore Ravens (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-3)
    Line: Saints by 3.5.

    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    It’s truly remarkable how little Sean Payton cares about Week 4 of the preseason. He’s 1-9 in these games! Granted, John Harbaugh’s record isn’t great either, but New Orleans’ depth this season is truly horrific, explaining the team’s 0-3 exhibition record. I love getting more than a field goal with Baltimore in this spot.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 23-12 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 3-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Sean Payton is 21-24 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-9 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Saints 17
    Ravens +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300







    Denver Broncos (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3)
    Line: Cardinals by 4.

    Thursday, 9:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    The Broncos have announced that it’ll be the Paxton Lynch show in this contest, and I’d have to think Gary Kubiak will formulate a game plan to put him in a position to succeed. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will be using the crappy Matt Barkley, as well as Drew Stanton, who appears to be on the verge of a mental breakdown.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Gary Kubiak is 23-15 in preseason games.
  • Gary Kubiak is 4-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Bruce Arians is 6-9 in preseason games.
  • Bruce Arians is 2-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Broncos 17, Cardinals 16
    Broncos +4 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110







    San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)
    Line: Chargers by 2.5.

    Thursday, 10:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Chargers have some pretty poor backup quarterbacks. The 49ers are definitely better in that regard, as Communist Kaepernick and Christian Ponder were once starters in this league, while Jeff Driskel has flashed some potential.

    By the way, no Vikings pick this week. Jeff Fisher is the opponent, and he’s 12-6 in Week 4 preseason game.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Chip Kelly is 8-7 in preseason games.
  • Chip Kelly is 1-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Mike McCoy is 6-9 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCoy is 1-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: 49ers 19, Chargers 13
    49ers +2.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100





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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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