NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LVIII

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

At any rate, I’m looking forward to this season. I’ve done a lot of research this summer to refine my handicapping. We’re coming off a great year, and I think this season could be even better!

Week 21 Analysis: We split our two dual Picks of the Month, but it felt like we easily could have gone 2-0. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Ravens, 7 units (loss): The Ravens picked a great time to have their worst game of the year. Between Zay Flowers fumbling at the goal line and Lamar Jackson not scrambling at all, and the Ravens coaching staff not realizing that the Chiefs are weak to the run, this was a highly disappointing outcome.

Lions, 7 units (win): The Lions covered with a touchdown at the end, but they were up 17 in the third quarter as 7.5-point underdogs. It’s absurd that they didn’t win outright. It was the Murphy’s Law of second halves for the Lions, who had the worst luck possible.

HATE MAIL: I normally put my hate mail here, but I made an entire Jerks of the Week entry about it, entitled, Adam Danger Legz. You’ll get to hear the deranged thoughts of an extremely sad human being.

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This week on national TV, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, where tonight, the San Francisco Giants take on the Kansas City Royals. Guys, I had to get a permission slip to come here because Mother says Las Vegas is a dangerous place and the Devil because it’s known as Sin City. But instead of signing the permission slip, Mother has joined me on the trip to help me find a famous singer girlfriend because time is running out for her to make her hair salon friends jealous that her poopykins can date a famous singer who is prettier than Taylor Swift.

Emmitt: Thanks, Ralse. Every time you speak about Taylor Smith, I never get to speaked about her because I talked before she comed up in the conversation. Taylor Smith a great songer. She related to my third uncle’s dog’s mailman Bennedict Smith III the IV the V the VII the VIII Jr. Esq. So, we real happy that Taylor Smith becomed a great songer but for some reason she never comed to our family union.

Reilly: Emmitt, that’s probably because it’s Taylor Swift; not Taylor Smith. Tolly, you look like you want to say something as well.

Tollefson: Yes. I also have not mentioned Taylor Swift all year. And I have to commend her security guards for doing great work. Do you know how many times I’ve disguised myself as a potted plant or a garbage can at Chiefs games so I could sneak up on Taylor Swift, kidnap her, and then make her clean and cook naked for me while singing her lovely songs? Her security has thwarted me at every turn. Well played, Taylor, well played.

Reilly: Tolly, how are you going to all these Chiefs games while broadcasting here with me? You know what, I don’t even want to know. What I do want to know is who my next girlfriend will be. As we’ve said all year, Mother has made a bet with her friends at the hair salon that I could date a female singer more beautiful than Taylor Swift. They all laughed at her, but she vowed that I would find such a woman by the Super Bowl. Well, it’s the Super Bowl, and I still somehow have no girlfriend even though I have lots of posters and bobbleheads of Nick Foles, which is very impressive. I’m also acing most of my home-schooling tests, so I was able to get a ticket to my prom for free. Right now, the guest list is me, Mother, New Daddy, my future girlfriend, Tolly, and his date. Who are you bringing, Tolly?

Tollefson: I’m not sure. I dumped all my female slaves into the ocean because they weren’t doing a good job of cooking and cleaning naked for me, so I have to find a new batch. I’ll let you know.

Reilly: OK, but please make it soon because Mother said we need the guest list two months ahead of time. And that brings me to Mother. Mother, you said you guaranteed a prom date for me who is more beautiful than Taylor Swift and can sing, too. Where is she?

Reilly’s Mother: She’s right here.

Reilly: Where? I don’t see anyone.

Reilly’s Mother: Right here, poopykins. It’s me. I’m your date to prom!

Reilly: But Mother, you’re not even a singer!

Reilly’s Mother: Yes, I am. Remember the nursery rhymes I had you sing in home-school class last week? I have a lovely voice. Much lovelier than that harlot, Taylor Swift. Taylor Swift is the Devil!

Tollefson: Buhahahaha, Reilly is taking his mom to prom, buhahahahaha!

Reilly’s Mother: Tolly, be quiet, or do you want me to tell everyone the silly mistake you made on your homework assignment last week?

Tollefson: I’m sorry, Reilly’s mother.

Reilly’s Mother: Now, we have it. I have won the bet. My hair salon friends will owe me money. One dollar each! Now, Kevin Poopykins, we will enjoy a nice evening together at the prom, and then you will go back to talking to no women because women are the Devil, except for Mother.

Reilly: But Mother, I want to talk to women and go on dates with them. Even Senator President John Festerman is allowed to talk to women, and he was in a mental hospital not too long ago! Isn’t that right, Senator President?

John Fetterman: Woman and man. Man and woman. Woman are the people who have hoo-haas, and man the people who have pee-pees. John John is man. Miss Gisele woman. Sometimes Miss Gisele let John John play with hoo-haa. John John going to sign paper in job and if he say yes, they going to give him lemoncakes. John John love lemoncakes.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! I also thank you for the science lesson. I thought women also had pee-pees, but now I know better!

Reilly’s Mother: Kevin, Poopykins, don’t listen to the strange bald man. Of course, all women have pee-pees. Everyone has them. And don’t say otherwise, because women are the Devil except Mother! Speaking of the Devil, another harlot is requesting our attention.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Kevin’s Mother. Thanks to Kevin’s Mother, we will begin hanging all women showing any skin in the stands and we will brand them as witches. Sources tell me every woman in the stands showing any skin is the Devil. Back to you, Kevin’s Mother!

Reilly’s Mother: You know, Kevin Poopykins, that Charissa Thompson is not the harlot I thought she is. If you were a flower who blossomed already, I think I would let you take her to a picture show.

Reilly: Oh, please, Mother! Charissa is so pretty. Please, oh please let me take her to a picture show! I promise I won’t force her to be my girlfriend until you give us your blessing. Maybe we can even ask for President Bident’s blessing. President Bident won the most legitimate election ever even though poll watchers in swing states boarded up rooms so people couldn’t verify the counting. If anyone can give us a great blessing, it’s him.

Joe Biden: Now look here, you three-gallon tub of popcorn, when I was raised in a South Korean bath house, I was the only African American living there. Dark Skin Joe they called me. Now, the orientals, if you were ever in a South Korean bath house, you had to have chopsticks or they wouldn’t understand ya. Little Sally came along one day and asked if she wanted to sell girls scout cookies. She looked real mature because she crossed her legs. Now I said, here’s the deal: I’ll take two of ’em. I was the only person in the whole bath house with cookies that day. Now, the Keebler Elves didn’t take kindly to this, and they were running some really bad dudes. The main Keebler Elf wanted to see me in the parking lot, and I said I was gonna put y’all in chains. The janitor who was white, I mean black, gave me a chain to wrap around the main Keebler Elf. He was sharpening his razorblade in the parking lot, and I said, “Esther, I apologize for having a cookie, do you forgive me?” He said, “If you apologize then we don’t have to fight,” and I said, “I don’t apologize for having a cookie, but I apologize for calling you Esther.” And the main Keebler Elf went away after that, and I had a sigh of relief as I took Sally out on a date.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he was the only person in the whole bath house with cookies that day, which is a total lie, which is not a surprise because it’s coming from Sleepy Joe who is a total liar and a total disgrace, because I was in the bath house that day as well, and I had lots of cookies, believe me, I had way more cookies than Sleepy Joe, which isn’t saying much because Sleepy Joe has no cookies, he’s not even close to having a cookie, No Cookie Sleepy Joe is what I call him, which is a great nickname, by the way, someone came to me and said that I had the best nicknames they had ever heard, and No Cookie Sleepy Joe is one of the best, and it’s true because Sleepy Joe doesn’t have cookies, and he didn’t have any cookies ever, especially when it compared to me, it was so many that someone asked me, “Trump, how did you get so many cookies?” and I said, “I don’t know, I just get a lot of cookies and I’m good at getting lots of cookies, I’m not sure what to tell ya, but I know this – Sleepy Joe, No Cookie Sleepy Joe Biden is the worst at getting cookies, and no one has ever seen anything like it.”

Wolfley: DONALD, I MUST POINT OUT THAT MY ASSOCIATE, A MICROPHONE WITH EAR BUDS FOR ARMS, HAS NEVER HAD A COOKIE IN HIS LIFE.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Mother, are you serious about allowing me to take Charissa Thompson to a picture show?

Reilly’s Mother: Well, I suppose it’s time for my little flower to blossom at the age of 67. You can go with her to the picture show, just as long as Mother chaperones.

Reilly: Mother, come on! Can’t it at least be New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: No thanks. I’d rather watch paint dry. Which is something I already do.

Reilly’s Mother: Well, that settles it! Kevin Poopykins, Charissa the former harlot, and Mother are going to see a picture show together!

Charissa Thompson: Wait, don’t I get a say in this?

Reilly’s Mother: Charissa, be quiet, or do you want to go back to being a harlot and the Devil again?

Charissa Thompson: I’m sorry, Reilly’s mother.

Charles Davis: Charissa, sounds like you’re going to be dating a creepy stalker guy, Charissa. Let’s talk about other creepy stalker guys, Charissa. There’s the cable guy from the movie, The Cable Guy, Charissa. Don’t forget about the Robin Williams character from One Hour Photo, Charissa. Let’s discuss Robert De Niro’s character in Cape Fear, Charissa. Don’t forget about Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction, Charissa. What about It Follows, Charissa? Then there’s the Invisible Man, Charissa.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, STOP SCARING MY NEW GIRLFRIEND! WE’RE GOING TO HAVE A FUN TIME AT THE PICTURE SHOW WITH MOTHER DRIVING US AND ME IN THE PASSENGER SEAT AND CHARISSA IN THE BACK SEAT BY HERSELF, SO F**K YOU! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Something I haven’t done a good enough job of doing is looking at how quarterbacks handle zone and man schemes. Part of the problem in that regard is that this data is very difficult to locate, but I was motivated to do so after Patrick Mahomes exploited Baltimore’s zone-heavy defense during the AFC Championship. Tony Romo said it on the broadcast – Mahomes devours zone defenses.

The 49ers apparently have played man defense on fewer than 150 snaps this entire season. This obviously favors Mahomes. Interestingly enough, the Lions, who play heavy man, may have provided a tougher matchup for Mahomes despite the issues in their secondary. Remember, the Chiefs don’t have good receivers outside of Rashee Rice, so they wouldn’t have had the personnel to exploit Detroit’s sole liability. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ll go cry in the corner on losing out on the 33/1 Lions Super Bowl prop.

At any rate, Mahomes should continue to have success against another zone scheme. He’ll thrive the most when connecting with Travis Kelce, who will look to pick up where Sam LaPorta left off versus San Francisco’s defense in the NFC Championship. Kelce has played like a cadaver all season, but he was clearly unfocused and distracted because he has really turned up his play in the postseason.

The Chiefs will also be able to run the ball on the 49ers. There’s a misconception about San Francisco’s run defense because the team didn’t surrender many rushing yards during the regular season. This, however, was because the 49ers were well ahead of many weak opponents that those teams weren’t able to rush the ball. We’ve seen the Packers and Lions have success on the ground in the playoffs, so this bodes well for Isiah Pacheco.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brock Purdy was once considered the MVP frontrunner, but that quickly changed after his Christmas result. Purdy imploded versus Baltimore and hasn’t really been the same since. He was fortunate that the Packers dropped two interceptions of his in the divisional round, and he had that lucky bounce off a Detroit player’s helmet in addition to throwing one pick in the NFC Championship. Purdy has also had some positive moments, so he hasn’t been all bad, but with all the dropped interceptions, he’s lucky to be here.

The Chiefs have a stellar pass defense, so it’s more likely that they’ll be able to take advantage of potential Purdy blunders than the Packers and Lions. Kansas City is also terrific at clamping down on No. 1 receivers and tight ends. L’Jarius Sneed shuts down top opposing wideouts, while the Chiefs surrendered the third-fewest yards to opposing tight ends this year. With Sneed, it’s unclear if he’ll cover Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. It’s my guess that it’s Aiyuk because he’s the more traditional receiver, so it’s possible that Samuel is the lone player in the 49ers trio that performs on a high level.

Purdy, by the way, will have to locate Samuel amid tons of pressure. The Chiefs have the No. 2 pressure rate in the NFL (San Francisco ranks 17th), and they get a big chunk of their pass rush in the interior with Chris Jones. This is problematic for the 49ers, who have issues with their interior protection. Trent Williams is an amazing left tackle, but the inside blocking won’t be able to handle Jones.

Of course, there’s Christian McCaffrey as well. The 49ers run their offense through him, and he should have success against the Chiefs, who are weaker to the run than the pass. It’s mind-boggling that the Ravens did not realize this in the AFC Championship, but I’m sure Kyle Shanahan will despite his reluctance to run the ball in another crucial moment in his career.

RECAP: It’s ridiculous that the Chiefs are in a position to win the Super Bowl because they’ve struggled offensively all year. A major part of that, however, was that their offensive skill players let down Mahomes with countless blunders. Kelce was a part of the problem, but the issue with him was apparently distraction because he has become the dominant tight end of old in the playoffs. If Kelce continues to perform on a high level, then the concerns the Chiefs had with their offense for most of the regular season are gone.

The 49ers, however, still have their issues. Purdy has made many mistakes since Christmas and hasn’t been penalized for some of them. Also, the interior offensive line and run defense are issues that can be exploited in this matchup.

I’m going to side with the Chiefs. I never imagined picking them to win the Super Bowl when they lost to the Raiders on Christmas, but they seem to have resolved their problems. They have the better quarterback, defense, and coaching staff. I like Shanahan, but he has choked in big moments in the past. Andy Reid, meanwhile, will have an extra week to prepare for this game, which is a huge edge for such an elite coach.

I imagine there will be some people reluctant to side with the Chiefs because they’re lucky to be here after such an underwhelming regular season. However, with Kelce trying hard again, it must be recognized that Kansas City will continue to be much better than it was prior to January. Also, the case can be made that the 49ers are even more fortunate to be here. They easily could have lost to both the Lions and Packers, which we probably should have seen coming. Remember how dominant they looked in that Sunday night game versus Dallas? They looked invincible in that game. However, they are just 5-9 against the spread since that game. Their covers have been against the Jaguars, who went on to implode; the Seahawks, who were playing with an injured Geno Smith on Thanksgiving; the Eagles, who also went on to implode; the Cardinals, who suck; and the Redskins, who also suck.

Again, I never would have imagined picking the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, but here we are. I’m going to side with them for three units at the moment. I may change my unit count, but I’m confident that I’ll be on Kansas City, barring any Barrett Robbins-type shenanigans leading up to the game. I’ll be looking for a +3 as well, but I doubt we see reasonable vig for that number.

PROPS: I found the best prop of all time 15 years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona moneyline. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There was nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence.

Hopefully we can find a sure winner again. In the meantime, here are some props I like:

1. Chiefs by 1-6 Points; 49ers by 1-6 Points – +333 +310 (BetMGM): I believe this game will be close, so I like the odds that one of these will hit (1 Unit on each). You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

2. Isiah Pacheco over 66.5 rushing yards -115 (BetMGM): As mentioned, the 49ers have a weaker run defense than people realize. Isiah Pacheco has cleared 66.5 rushing yards in all three playoff games thus far (0.5 Units). You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

3. Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions -140 (Caesars): The vig on this sucks, but there’s been a lot of sharp money hammering the over. Kelce is trying hard again, and the 49ers can be beaten with tight ends (0.5 Units).

4. Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions -110 (BetMGM): I also like Kansas City’s other tight end. Noah Gray has caught five passes in the past three games, so he should be able to catch two balls (0.5 Units). You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

5. Brock Purdy under 1.5 passing touchdowns +100 (BetMGM): Brock Purdy has multiple touchdowns in just one of his four games since the Christmas debacle, and that was against the lowly Redskins. The Chiefs are great against the pass (0.5 Units). You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

6. Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions -120 (BetMGM): Purdy has been so lucky not to have thrown so many interceptions in the playoffs. I have to believe that the Chiefs will pick him off once (0.5 Units). You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

7. Brandon Aiyuk under 63.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel): I could be wrong, but I think L’Jarius Sneed will be on Brandon Aiyuk. If so, I think Aiyuk goes under 63.5 receiving yards (0.5 Units). You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

8. MVP: Travis Kelce – +1700 (FanDuel), Isiah Pacheco – +3500 (FanDuel), Chris Jones – 140/1 (FanDuel): While the quarterbacks and Christian McCaffrey are most likely to win this award, there could be some voting fatigue with Mahomes. Plus, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, Travis Kelce will be named MVP, and 17/1 is a great price. Pacheco could win with a couple of rushing touchdowns. And I like a long-shot bet with Chris Jones because he will easily dominate in the trenches (0.5 Units on Kelce; 0.2 Units on Pacheco; 0.1 Unit on Jones). You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is still -2 at most sportsbooks. There’s -2.5 -105 at FanDuel and -2.5 -110 at Superbook, but I’m seeing -2 elsewhere. It would be ideal to get a viable +3 at some point, but I’d be shocked if that happens. There hasn’t been an sort of a sharp lean on either side, as there have been some pro money on both teams at various points during this week-and-a-half. In fact, there’s a bit more money than tickets on the Chiefs, but not anything remotely substantial. I remain on the Chiefs for three units.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m parlaying the following: Brock Purdy under 1.5 passing touchdowns, Isiah Pacheco over 67.5 rushing yards, Brandon Aiyuk under 60.5 receiving yards, and Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions. This pays +970 on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only major injury is to Joe Thuney, who has been ruled out. However, the Chiefs have a great backup, so it’s not going to hurt them. Also, it’s worth noting that Rashee Rice, who was downgraded to limited on Thursday, was full on Friday and doesn’t have an injury designation. I’m still on the Chiefs, and it looks like some sharp action is coming in on them. The spread has dropped to +1.5 ats some locations like Circa and FanDuel.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Chiefs. According to the Circa sportsbook manager, they haven’t gotten any big action on the 49ers yet. My preferred line at the moment is Chiefs +1 +100 at Bookmaker because I’d rather not pay the 10-percent vig. Also, I bet the coin toss. I know, I know, it’s dumb, but not really under these circumstances. DraftKings is offering +100 on both heads and tails, which is better than a roulette wheel because with roulette, you have to worry about 0 and 00, so it’s not a true fifty-fifty wager. Here, it is. So, if you’ve ever gambled on a roulette wheel, you might as well bet the coin toss. I put $25 on heads because most people will choose tails as a result of “tails never fails.”

FINAL THOUGHTS: The only surprise on the inactives list is that Kadarius Toney is out, while Jerick McKinnon and Skyy Moore are both active. This just for DFS purposes, so adjust your lineups accordingly. I’m taking some shots on both as garbage punt plays. At any rate, there’s been some public money coming in on the 49ers, while a bit of sharp action is on the Chiefs. The best line is +2 -105 at Bovada, followed by +2 -107 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: .

Computer Model: 49ers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Plenty of money on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 67% (2,320,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.