Falcons (6-4) at Lions (4-6). Line: Falcons by 3. Over-Under: 42.
Thursday, 12:30 ET
HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Falcons by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Falcons by 4.

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
Injuries: Falcons: OUT: MLB Edgerton Hartwell, CB Chris Cash, CB Kevin Mathis. QUESTIONABLE: DE Brady Smith, DT Chad Lavalais. Lions: OUT: CB Dre Bly, CB Fernando Bryant. QUESTIONABLE: QB Jeff Garcia*, WR Mike Williams, OLB Boss Bailey, MLB Earl Holmes.

I've been saying that the Falcons were a fraud for weeks. I'm one person who is not surprised that they lost two consecutive home games to the Packers and Buccaneers.

That said, Michael Vick really impressed me last week against Tampa Bay. Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks kept him from running the ball, but the athletic quarterback was 21-of-38 for 306 yards and two touchdowns. I still need to see him play this way on a more consistent basis, but I'm more confident in Vick's ability to throw the ball. The Lions are ranked 22nd against the run, so look for Jim Mora Jr. to establish Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett early and often. Right defensive end James Hall will be responsible for preventing Vick from running to his left. It will be interesting to see if Hall can do what Rice did.

Like the Lions, Atlanta cannot stop the run. In fact, the team is ranked 30th, surrendering a whopping 4.8 yards per carry. Kevin Jones should easily eclipse the 100-yard barrier, setting up play-action for either Jeff Garcia or Joey Harrington. The Falcons can be thrown against, as witnessed two weeks ago when Donald Driver caught 10 passes for 114 yards. A healthy Roy Williams will be able to get open all afternoon. If the Lions want to win this game, they need to cut down on turnovers. Detroit was whistled for 17 penalties against Dallas.

The Falcons are the better team, but Thanksgiving Day hosts have been prolific over the years. You either bet on Detroit or stay away from this contest all together.


The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Turkey Covers: Thanksgiving Day hosts are 8-4 ATS since 1999.
  • Lions are 4-1 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 42.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler, Kevin Jones, Roy Williams.
  • Sit Em: Lions Defense.

Prediction: Lions by 3. (Lions +3). Money Pick. Under.




Broncos (8-2) at Cowboys (7-3). Line: Broncos by 2. Over-Under: 41.
Thursday, 4:15 ET
HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Cowboys by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Cowboys by 1.

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
Injuries: Broncos: OUT: OT Dwayne Carswell, CB Lenny Walls. QUESTIONABLE: WR Darius Watts. Cowboys: OUT: OT Flozell Adams. QUESTIONABLE: WR Patrick Crayton.

Every year, I eat turkey, mashed potatoes, etc. and try to watch this game. I always fall asleep in the second half. I'll make it a Money Pick that I don't fall asleep this year; this game actually means something for the first time since Troy Aikman's retirement.

Bill Parcells was infuriated with his rush defense after permitting Brian Westbrook and Lamar Gordon to gain 143 yards on 29 carries two weeks ago. Dallas responded by limiting Kevin Jones to 29 yards on 12 carries. It's a good thing Parcells fixed his run defense because Denver has the top rushing attack in the NFL. It will be tough for the Cowboys to stop Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, which will force them to cheat an eighth man into the box. Jake Plummer will respond by utilizing his patented play-action bootlegs, connecting with Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie downfield. It's hard to believe that Plummer has only thrown three interceptions this year. The Cowboys need to make sure that total increases by applying pressure with Greg Ellis and DeMarcus Ware.

Dallas also has a potent two-headed rushing attack, thanks to the emergence of rookie Marion Barber III. However, the Broncos are seventh against the run, meaning Julius Jones and Barber III will be stuffed in the backfield, placing Drew Bledsoe in long-yardage situations. Bledsoe was anemic on Sunday against Detroit, throwing for just 110 yards on 12-of-23 passing. Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson and Jason Witten should be able to get open against a secondary that yields 240 aerial yards per game. Bledsoe will need to get them the ball, and he'll have all the time in the world to do it; Denver has registered just 18 sacks this season.

Once again, this is a Thanksgiving Day game. It's either Dallas or nothing.


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Turkey Covers: Thanksgiving Day hosts are 8-4 ATS since 1999.
  • Extreme Line Movement: Teams that have had the line change in their favor by three or more points are 1-4 ATS this year.
  • Broncos are 3-7 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.
  • Line Movement: Cowboys -1 (open) to Cowboys -2 to Pick to Broncos -1 to Broncos -1 to Broncos -2 to Broncos -2.
  • Total Movement: 42 (open) to 41.
  • Weather: Sunny, 75 degrees. Light wind, 10 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Broncos Offense, Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson, Jason Witten.
  • Sit Em: Julius Jones, Marion Barber III.

Prediction: Cowboys by 6. (Cowboys +2). Money Pick. Under.




Ravens (3-7) at Bengals (7-3). Line: Bengals by 9. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Bengals by 10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Bengals by 10.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
Injuries: Ravens: OUT: MLB Ray Lewis. QUESTIONABLE: OT Orlando Brown, G Keydrick Vincent, S Ed Reed. Bengals: OUT: C Ben Wilkerson, C Larry Moore, S Kim Herring. QUESTIONABLE: CB Brodney Pool.

Baltimore won the Super Bowl last week. Well, not "the" Super Bowl. They beat archrival Pittsburgh, which was their Super Bowl.

When these two teams met on Nov. 6, Baltimore only scored nine points because it couldn't move the chains. Jamal Lewis and Chester Taylor combined for 58 rushing yards on 18 carries, despite playing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati will once again stack the line of scrimmage, coaxing Kyle Boller to beat them downfield. That just won't happen, especially on the road. Two weeks ago, Boller threw three interceptions at Jacksonville. Imagine what the Bengals' opportunistic secondary will do to him. Cincinnati has already picked off 21 passes this year.

In the same Nov. 6 matchup between Cincinnati and Baltimore, the former was able to move the chains against the latter efficiently. Rudi Johnson tallied 97 rushing yards, while Carson Palmer threw for 248 and two scores. Baltimore will not be able to match the intensity it displayed against Pittsburgh, meaning the Bengals will once again score about 24 points. That guarantees them a victory, because Baltimore has yet to tally more than 19 points this year.

A few powerful trends are going against Baltimore, including the Emotional Win Alert and the Double Home Alert. Plus, Boller is on the road. The only thing that will keep me from labeling this contest a Money Pick is the Divisional Dog of Seven rule. I told you a few weeks ago that I would never bet against it. I'm sticking to my promise.


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • History: Bengals have won the last 2 meetings.
  • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current NFL coaches are 49-22 ATS as divisional underdogs of seven or more since 2002.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 47-34 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 38-68 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; RAVENS won in overtime.
  • Weak Arm: Kyle Boller is 0-1 ATS on the road.
  • Ravens are 16-6 ATS in November.
  • Ravens are 4-12 ATS as an underdog the previous 16 instances.
  • Ravens are 1-4 ATS on the road this year.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Sunny, 53 degrees. Light wind, 9 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Todd Heap, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Bengals Defense.
  • Sit Em: Kyle Boller, Jamal Lewis, Ravens Defense.

Prediction: Bengals by 14. (Bengals -9). Under.




Panthers (7-3) at Bills (4-6). Line: Panthers by 4. Over-Under: 36.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Panthers by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Panthers by 3.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Panthers: OUT: DT Kris Jenkins. QUESTIONABLE: MLB Dan Morgan. Bills: OUT: DT Ron Edwards, OLB Takeo Spikes. QUESTIONABLE: QB Kelly Holcomb*.

I'm just as surprised as anyone that Carolina was manhandled the way it was against Chicago. The Bears dominated the Panthers in every facet of the game, which is something you would not expect from a John Fox coached team.

Carolina runs the ball more than any team in the NFL, which is bad news for the Bills, because they are ranked 31st in the NFL against the run, permitting five yards per carry to the opposition. However, the Panthers haven't been able to generate much yardage from all of the carries they call; Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster have rushed for 3.0 and 3.8 yards per rush, respectively. Carolina will be able to move the chains, but Jake Delhomme will occasionally be placed in obvious passing situations. That won't be a good thing for the Panthers, given that Buffalo has one of the top secondaries in the NFL and a pass rush that has generated 26 sacks this season. Carolina's offensive line surrendered eight sacks last week, so it will obviously need to step up against the Bills.

The Panthers are second against ground attacks, but they have struggled to wrap up opposing rushers the past two weeks; Curtis Martin, Cedric Houston, Thomas Jones and Adrian Peterson all had success against Carolina. Buffalo will establish the run with Willis McGahee, who will collect more than 100 rushing yards. J.P. Losman will be able to utilize play-action, connecting with Eric Moulds and Lee Evans, who should be able to get open against a secondary that yields 207 passing yards per contest.

Carolina is the better team, but Buffalo is incredible at home. It's simply too windy, cold and gray for the opposition to play well in Orchard Park. In fact, weather.com is predicting 32 degrees, snow showers and heavy winds. If the Panthers were coming off a win against the Bears, I would have made this a Money Pick.


The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Double Road Alert: John Fox is 0-3 ATS on the road following a road loss.
  • Bills are 12-4 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by less than 6 points since 2002.
  • Bills are 19-7 ATS in November home games the previous 25 contests.
  • Bills are 4-1 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -4 (open) to Panthers -3 to Panthers -4.
  • Total Movement: 36 (open) to 36 to 36 to 36.
  • Weather: Chance of snow showers, 33 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Steve Smith, Willis McGahee, Eric Moulds, Lee Evans.
  • Sit Em: Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster.

Prediction: Bills by 3. (Bills +4). Under.




Bears (7-3) at Buccaneers (7-3). Line: Buccaneers by 3. Over-Under: 32.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Buccaneers by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Buccaneers by 2.

The Game. Edge: Bears.
Injuries: Bears: OUT: QB Rex Grossman, RB Cedric Benson. Buccaneers: OUT: QB Brian Griese. QUESTIONABLE: S Dexter Jackson, S Will Allen.

How impressive were these two teams on Sunday? Chicago dominated the so-called best team in the NFC, beating Carolina, 13-3. Tampa Bay stormed into the Georgia Dome and defeated Atlanta, 30-27.

The Bears can run the ball on anyone. They've made that clear. Thomas Jones and Adrian Peterson combined for 124 yards on 29 carries against the second-ranked rush defense in the NFL last week. It's good to know Chicago can orchestrate an effective ground attack against anyone, because Tampa Bay is ranked third in preventing teams from doing so. However, the Buccaneers yielded 133 rushing yards on 32 carries to Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett on Sunday. Chicago will move the chains effectively on the ground, permitting Kyle Orton to convert first downs by firing the ball to Muhsin Muhammad. As good as the Buccaneers secondary is, no one in the defensive backfield can cover Muhammad.

Cadillac Williams came out of the repair shop and easily cruised through Atlanta's front seven, rushing for 116 yards on 19 carries. Keep in mind that Atlanta is 30th against the run. Chicago is ranked eighth. The Bears' gap-shooting defensive line will flatten Cadillac's wheels before he gets to the line of scrimmage, placing Chris Simms in long-yardage situations. Simms has yet to face an elite defense like the Bears possess. The young signal caller will undoubtedly throw a few interceptions in this contest. Simms will also be sacked frequently; Chicago's defensive line generated eight sacks by themselves against Carolina. The Buccaneers have an inferior offensive line, compared to the Panthers'. This game will be a disaster for Tampa Bay.

Chicago demolished one NFC South powerhouse last week. Tampa Bay is next.


The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Bears are 11-4 ATS in November since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 33 (open) to 33 to 32 to 32.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 78 degrees. Light wind, 7 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Thomas Jones, Muhsin Muhammad, Bears Defense.
  • Sit Em: Buccaneers Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Bears by 9. (Bears +3). Money Pick. Under.




Browns (4-6) at Vikings (5-5). Line: Vikings by 3. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Vikings by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Vikings by 4.

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: Browns: OUT: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., CB Gary Baxter. QUESTIONABLE: RB William Green, RB Lee Suggs, G Joe Andruzzi. Vikings: OUT: QB Daunte Culpepper, RB Moe Williams, RB Onterrio Smith, C Matt Birk, DE Kenechi Udeze, CB Fred Smoot. QUESTIONABLE: WR Nate Burleson, G Toniu Fonoti.

Can someone explain to me how Brad Johnson is 3-0? The Vikings, who lost 37-8 at Cincinnati, 30-10 at Atlanta, 28-3 at Chicago and 38-13 at Carolina, are 5-5 and in the playoff hunt? Can we boycott Minnesota if it makes it into the playoffs?

Believe it or not, but the Vikings have been winning with defense. In fact, they have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Oct. 2. Reuben Droughns, who rushed for 166 yards in a 22-0 win over Miami, will be stuffed in the backfield, placing Trent Dilfer in obvious passing situations. Minnesota has baited the last three quarterbacks it has faced -- Brett Favre, Eli Manning and Joey Harrington -- into eight total interceptions. Trent Dilfer has already thrown 10 picks this season, so Minnesota could be adding to its season total, which now stands at 14.

I was shocked when the Vikings scored two touchdowns against Green Bay, because they can neither run the ball nor throw deep. However, Minnesota found something it liked on the left side of the offensive line, as Mewelde Moore garnered 122 rushing yards on 22 carries. The Vikings should attempt to establish Moore behind left tackle Bryant McKinnie again -- Cleveland is ranked 23rd against the run. If Moore can be a potent weapon on the ground, Johnson will be able to parlay his team's rushing attack into a few play-action passes downfield.

The Vikings are a completely different team. There are two powerful trends going against them, so this will not be a Money Pick. But, I still think they may cover the short spread.


The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 39-68 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; VIKINGS kicked a GW-field goal as time expired.
  • Post Monday Night Syndrome: Teams coming off a Monday night victory are 16-22 ATS the following week since 2003.
  • Vikings are 3-1 ATS at home.
  • Line Movement: Vikings -4 (open) to Vikings- 3.
  • Total Movement: 39 (open) to 38.
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Mewelde Moore, Jermaine Wiggins, Vikings Defense.
  • Sit Em: Browns Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Vikings by 10. (Vikings -3). Over.




Patriots (6-4) at Chiefs (6-4). Line: Chiefs by 3. Over-Under: 49.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Patriots by 1.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Patriots by 1.

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Patriots: OUT: RB Kevin Faulk, C Dan Koppen, CB Randall Gay, S Rodney Harrison. DOUBTFUL: RB Corey Dillon*. QUESTIONABLE: WR David Givens, WR/CB Troy Brown, OT Matt Light, OT Tom Ashworth, ILB Monty Beisel, KR Bethel Johnson. Chiefs: QUESTIONABLE: OT Willie Roaf, DT Ryan Sims, S Jerome Woods.

I don't know how they are doing it, but the Patriots just keep on winning. New England is the most injured team in the NFL, yet the team is 6-4 and is in position to host a home playoff game.

No Corey Dillon. No Matt Light. No Dan Koppen. Yet, the Patriots were still able to tally 127 rushing yards on 29 combined carries from Heath Evans and Patrick Pass. Whoever runs for the Patriots on Sunday -- Dillon is questionable again -- will not have as much success against a Kansas City front that yields just 3.9 yards per carry. However, New England will be able to move the chains aerially, because the Chiefs surrender 241 passing yards per contest. Kansas City also has trouble generating a pass rush; it has accumulated just 17 sacks this season. In fact, the Chiefs only sacked David Carr once last week, which is downright embarrassing.

The Patriots have struggled this season because their banged up defense cannot stop anyone; they are 24th against the run, while their anemic secondary allows a whopping 264 passing yards per contest. Making matters worse, New England has only generated 14 sacks in 10 games. Larry Johnson will eclipse the 150-yard barrier, setting up play-action for Trent Green. However, Green may not move the chains efficiently because he has played poorly all season, by his standards. Green suffered a foot injury in the preseason and may not have recovered. The Chiefs have adjusted to throw the ball downfield by utilizing a dink-and-dunk offense. New England's primary weakness this season has been its inability to stop deep passes down the middle of the field.

These two teams have underachieved this year. You can't blame the Patriots because they have too many bodies on injured reserve. However, there was no excuse for the Chiefs losing at Buffalo and blowing a huge lead to Philadelphia. Kansas City will find some way to mess this game up.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Patriots are 8-3 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
  • Patriots are 11-5 ATS in November since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 63-18 as a starter (51-29 ATS).
  • Bill Belichick is 3-0 SU vs. Kansas City.
  • Line Movement: Chiefs -3 (open) to Chiefs -3.
  • Total Movement: 52 (open) to 51 to 51 to 49 to 49.
  • Weather: Showers, 55 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Tom Brady, Deion Branch, Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez.
  • Sit Em: Corey Dillon, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Patriots by 3. (Patriots +3). Over.




Chargers (6-4) at Redskins (5-5). Line: Chargers by 3. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Chargers by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Chargers by 2.

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: Chargers: QUESTIONABLE: OT Roman Oben, OLB Ben Leber, ILB Steve Foley. Redskins: OUT: WR David Patten. QUESTIONABLE: RB Ladell Betts, WR James Thrash, DT Cornelius Griffin, S Omar Stoutmire.

You could argue that this is a must-win game for both teams, but the Redskins need a victory much more than the Chargers. If Washington loses, it has no chance of making the playoffs, whereas a San Diego defeat would only set the Chargers back a little bit -- a 6-5 record will not expel their playoff aspirations.

I'm sure Joe Gibbs and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams were both displeased to hear that Antonio Gates will be available for this contest. The Redskins should be able to keep LaDainian Tomlinson from gaining 100 rushing yards -- they surrendered less than two yards per carry to LaMont Jordan last week -- but Washington does not have the personnel to defend Gates. No one does. Even though he will be in obvious passing situations all afternoon, Drew Brees will locate his All-Pro tight end and fire the ball to him. Washington's only hope of stopping San Diego is to ceaselessly keep the Chargers in third-and-long situations and hope that Brees misfires.

Don't pay attention to the 10 points San Diego allowed to Buffalo last week; the Bills are an embarrassment to the NFL when they play on the road. Pay closer attention to the 26 the Chargers permitted the Jets to score two Sundays earlier. San Diego yields 237 aerial yards per game, meaning Mark Brunell will be connecting with Santana Moss throughout the course of this game. The Chargers are fourth against the run, so don't expect much from Clinton Portis. However, Brunell will be able to convert third downs all afternoon; Washington leads the league in that department.

Two powerful trends are going against San Diego in this contest. Furthermore, the Redskins have only lost two games by more than three points. This will be a close, low-scoring matchup.


The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 13-24 ATS since 2002.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 47-34 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001.
  • Chargers are 12-6 ATS vs. opponents coming off a loss under Marty Schottenheimer.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 43 to 44 to 43.
  • Weather: Sunny, 45 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Drew Brees, Keenan McCardell, Antonio Gates, Santana Moss.
  • Sit Em: Clinton Portis, Redskins Defense.

Prediction: Chargers by 1. (Redskins +3). Under.




49ers (2-8) at Titans (2-8). Line: Titans by 8. Over-Under: 42.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Titans by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Titans by 6.

The Game. Edge: Titans.
Injuries: 49ers: OUT: FB Fred Beasley, TE Eric Johnson, DT Bryant Young, CB Mike Rumph. DOUBTFUL: RB Frank Gore, K Joe Nedney. QUESTIONABLE: QB Alex Smith*, RB Kevan Barlow, OLB Jeff Ulbrich, ILB Saleem Rasheed, CB Ahmed Plummer. Titans: OUT: S Vincent Fuller. QUESTIONABLE: WR Tyrone Calico, CB Andre Woolfolk.

San Francisco is grooming the wrong quarterback to be its franchise future. Ken Dorsey was spectacular against a solid Seattle defense last week, throwing for 249 yards and a touchdown.

Unfortunately for 49ers fans, Alex Smith will start on Sunday. Smith has displayed less talent than Kyle Boller in his limited preseason and regular season action. The Utah alumnus confronts a very youthful Tennessee stop unit that is improving every week. The Titans, ranked just 21st against the pass, limited Greg Jones to 33 yards on 16 carries last week. The 49ers will not be able to run the ball, meaning Smith will be forced into third-and-long situations. Tennessee's secondary is extremely porous, but the team has proven that they can apply pressure on the quarterback; the Titans have registered 26 sacks this season, while the 49ers have given up 29.

The 49ers are a different team depending on where they play. At home, they beat St. Louis and Tampa Bay, and have played close with Dallas, Indianapolis, Seattle and the Giants. However, they have lost by an average of 24.8 points on the road. For some reason, San Francisco has problems putting the clamps on opposing rushers away from Candlestick; the team has yielded just four yards per carry during the course of the 2005 campaign, but they allow 5.2 yards per rush on the road. Chris Brown will easily stampede through the 49ers' defensive front, setting up play-action opportunities for Steve McNair. San Francisco's secondary permits 275 passing yards per contest.

Tennessee is 2-8 but they are hungry for a victory; the Titans have played Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland and Arizona close the past four weeks. They will win on Sunday because the 49ers are dreadful on the road.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 47-34 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001.
  • Weak Arms: 49ers quarterbacks are 1-3 ATS on the road.
  • Line Movement: Titans -7 (open) to Titans -8 to Titans -8.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Showers, 58 degrees. Light wind, 9 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Titans Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em: 49ers Offense (excluding Brandon Lloyd) and Defense.

Prediction: Titans by 17. (Titans -8). Money Pick. Under.




Rams (4-6) at Texans (1-9). Line: Rams by 3. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Rams by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Rams by 4.

The Game. Edge: Rams.
Injuries: Rams: OUT: QB Marc Bulger, CB Jerametrius Butler, S Adam Archuleta. QUESTIONABLE: CB DeJuan Groce, CB Travis Fisher. Texans: OUT: OT Todd Wade. QUESTIONABLE: CB Phillip Buchanon, CB Demarcus Faggins, S Jason Simmons.

I can't be positive because I'm not in the locker room, but it seems like the Rams have given up on their season. The loss to Seattle may have been the knock-out punch. St. Louis didn't show up for its contest against Arizona last week.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column praising Joe Vitt and his dedication to the run. As soon as Marc Bulger came back from injury, the Rams reverted to the legendary Mike Martz coaching manual, which states: "Throw the ball as much as possible, you don't need to run the ball at all." Andy Reid owns a copy. Vitt must have picked one up, because his team ran just 12 times against the Cardinals' pitiful run defense. Houston is slightly better at wrapping up opposing rushers, but it will not matter. Vitt and offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild will ceaselessly call pass plays, putting Jamie Martin at risk in the pocket. Fortunately for Martin, the Texans have only registered 14 sacks this season. The Rams should be able to orchestrate lengthy drives -- but I don't think you can count on St. Louis to do anything.

I bet ESPN was pleased that it was awarded two Houston games on Sunday Night Football. The Texans will never be on national television ever again. David Carr is being sacked less because he is throwing short passes. That keeps Carr from being pummeled into the turf, but the Texans cannot score on a consistent basis; they have not tallied more than 20 points this season. It also doesn't help matters that Carr stares down his receivers like a leering drunk at a bar. I won't be shocked if the Rams register a few interceptions in this contest. Offensive coordinator Joe Pendry needs to establish the run with Domanick Davis on a more consistent basis -- Davis did not receive a single carry during Houston's first two drives against Kansas City. The Rams are 29th against opposing rush attacks, so Davis could find some wide-open running lanes.

The Rams cannot play on the road, while the Texans will attempt to redeem themselves after being embarrassed in front of a national audience. Houston should be able to win, but I wouldn't bet on it.


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Double Home Alert: Coaches are 47-34 ATS at home following a home loss since 2001; Dom Capers 6-0 ATS.
  • Rams are 8-22 ATS in road games since 2001.
  • Rams are 1-4 ATS on the road this year.
  • Texans are 15-7 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
  • Texans are 8-2 ATS in November home games.
  • Line Movement: Rams -4 (open) to Rams -3.
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 45.
  • Weather: Showers; roof closed.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Kevin Curtis, Domanick Davis.
  • Sit Em: Marc Bulger, Texans Defense.

Prediction: Texans by 3. (Texans +3). Under.




Jaguars (7-3) at Cardinals (3-7). Line: Jaguars by 3. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Jaguars by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Jaguars by 2.

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: S Donovin Darius. Cardinals: OUT: FB James Hodgins, WR Bryant Johnson, DE Calvin Pace, CB Antrel Rolle. QUESTIONABLE: G Elton Brown.

Jacksonville's extremely easy schedule continues. Excluding a home game against the Colts, the Jaguars don't play a team with a winning record. But, I still see them falling apart. They've had close games against the Titans and Texans, and lost to the Marc Bulger-less Rams.

It really shocked me that Greg Jones wasn't able to run the ball against Tennessee, a team that is ranked 21st against opposing rush attacks. Arizona is seeded 26th in that category, but keep in mind that the squad completely put the clamps on Steven Jackson last week, holding him to a mind-boggling six yards on 12 carries. Excluding Shaun Alexander, no running back has had much success at Sun Devil Stadium. Whether Jacksonville's starting back is Jones or Fred Taylor -- the latter is questionable -- Byron Leftwich will find himself in long-yardage situations. Leftwich will be able to move the chains, but the Jaguars always seem to have problems moving down the field on a consistent basis.

Dennis Green finally won a game without Josh McCown at the helm. Kurt Warner defeated the pathetic Rams, 38-28 on Sunday. Despite winning, he threw the ball 39 times in the Edward Jones Dome, but would you expect anything different? Arizona cannot run the ball, so Warner will once again be asked to do everything offensively. Even though the Jaguars have Rashean Mathis at cornerback, I cannot see him or anyone else covering Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. That said, the Cardinals may have trouble scoring because defensive ends Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward, who have 12 combined sacks, will be breathing down Warner's neck; Arizona has surrendered 27 sacks this season.

Jacksonville is not that good of a team, while the Cardinals love playing the role of the home underdog. Sun Devil Stadium is a snake pit, and the Jaguars might be the next squad to succumb to the venomous bite of the desert.


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Cardinals are 9-6 ATS as a home underdog since 2003.
  • Line Movement: Jaguars -4 (open) to Jaguars -3.
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 41 to 41.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 70 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith, Matt Jones, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald.
  • Sit Em: Greg Jones, Arizona Running Backs and Defense.

Prediction: Jaguars by 3. (Cardinals +3). Over.




Dolphins (3-7) at Raiders (4-6). Line: Raiders by 7. Over-Under: 42.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Raiders by 5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Raiders by 7.

The Game. Edge: Raiders.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: CB Will Poole, S Tebucky Jones. QUESTIONABLE: QB Gus Frerotte*, OLB Junior Seau. Raiders: OUT: WR Ronald Curry, G Langston Walker, DT Warren Sapp, S Derrick Gibson. QUESTIONABLE: OLB DeLawrence Grant.

Not too many people heard what Nick Saban said during his Monday press conference following his team's 22-0 loss to Cleveland. He noted that he doesn't care about the score or his team's record. Saban said that he is just looking to see which players he wants to keep around for next year. If you're a veteran player on the Dolphins, how do you react to that? Your coach doesn't care about winning this year? Do you throw in the towel?

Saban has vehemently expressed his disdain for Gus Frerotte. He saw the Sage Rosenfels debacle last week. Now, Saban will go with Cleo Lemon, who could be the top running back on Miami's roster. Lemon might be talented, but he has never started an NFL game. Think he will be intimidated in the Black Hole? Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan will attempt to run the ball with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, which will not work against the Raiders, who will stack the line of scrimmage, coaxing the young signal caller to beat them downfield. He won't. Not yet.

Once upon a time, Miami was seeded among the top teams against the run. Last week, they surrendered 166 rushing yards to Reuben Droughns. Two Sundays ago they allowed Heath Evans to rush for 84 yards on 17 carries. The Dolphins, who will be missing Zach Thomas, will not be able to stop LaMont Jordan, who will easily eclipse 150 yards. Kerry Collins will take advantage by utilizing play-action, connecting to Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and Doug Gabriel. Excluding Sam Madison, Miami has absolutely nothing in its secondary. The Raiders could score on every single drive.

I've been saying it for weeks: Oakland is not as bad as its 4-6 record indicates. The Raiders have lost to New England, Kansas City (twice), Philadelphia, San Diego and Denver. Miami does not belong in that category.


The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Weak Arm: Gus Frerotte is 1-3 ATS on the road this year. *
  • Raiders are 5-12 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Sunny, 62 degrees. Light wind, 8 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Kerry Collins, LaMont Jordan, Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, Raiders Defense.
  • Sit Em: Dolphins Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Raiders by 21. (Raiders -7). Double Money Pick. Under.




Packers (2-8) at Eagles (4-6). Line: Eagles by 4. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Eagles by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Eagles by 5.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
Injuries: Packers: OUT: RB Ahman Green, RB Najeh Davenport, WR Javon Walker, KR Terrence Murphy. Eagles: OUT: QB Donovan McNabb, RB Correll Buckhalter, WR Terrell Owens, WR Todd Pinkston, OT Tra Thomas, C Hank Fraley, DE Jerome McDougle.

So much for my 2005 Packers-2004 Panthers theory. Green Bay was pitiful on Monday night against the Vikings.

What happened to Samkon Gado? He's like Vanilla Ice -- when he came out, everyone was picking him up in fantasy, but once they started him for a few games, they realized that he isn't any good. Gado rushed for just seven yards on 10 carries against the Vikings. He has also fumbled thrice in the past two weeks. Gado will be stymied by a Philadelphia defensive front that has yielded only 2.6 yards per carry at home, as the team has shut down potent running backs like LaDainian Tomlinson, LaMont Jordan, Julius Jones and Marion Barber III. Brett Favre, despite facing third-and-long situations, should be able to connect on a few downfield strikes to Donald Driver. However, Favre leads the league in interceptions, so I expect Sheldon Brown and Brian Dawkins to come away with at least two picks.

It was a tale of two halves for Mike McMahon against the Giants last week. In the first half, McMahon was brutal, as he fumbled thrice. But, McMahon, nicknamed "White Vick" by many Philadelphians, led the Eagles to a few scoring drives in the second half. He finished with 298 passing yards and two total touchdowns. Green Bay has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, so McMahon should be able to find L.J. Smith and emerging rookie Reggie Brown downfield. The new Eagles signal caller will be supported by Brian Westbrook, who is very lethal out of the backfield. If Andy Reid continues to run the football -- he called 20 running plays last week -- he will see that the Packers are weak against opposing backs on the right side of their defense; Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is an excellent pass rusher, but he struggles to wrap up ball carriers.

I think the Eagles will play for pride and win this game. Even though Philadelphia may have a split locker room, the team may rally around McMahon.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Packers are 19-8 ATS after Monday Night Football in the previous 26 instances.
  • Brett Favre is 14-6 ATS as an underdog since 2002.
  • Eagles are 30-16 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 14-7 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Eagles are 10-6 ATS in November since 2001.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -4 (open) to Eagles -4.
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 41.
  • Weather: Sunny, 43 degrees. Light wind, 9 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Donald Driver, Mike McMahon, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith.
  • Sit Em: Samkon Gado, Packers Defense.

Prediction: Eagles by 7. (Eagles -4). Under.




Giants (7-3) at Seahawks (8-2). Line: Seahawks by 5. Over-Under: 47.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Seahawks by 3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Seahawks by 4.

The Game. Edge: Giants.
Injuries: Giants: OUT: DT William Joseph, OLB Barrett Green, CB William Peterson. Seahawks: OUT: WR Darrell Jackson, OLB Jamie Sharper, S Ken Hamlin.

Last year, the Giants were 6-10, while the Seahawks were famous for their fourth-quarter meltdowns. Who would have thought that these two teams would be battling for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs?

A major reason why Seattle could be the top team in the NFC is its much-improved defense. The Seahawks couldn't stop the run last year, but they are ranked 10th in that department this season. The Giants will attempt to establish the run with Tiki Barber, but it won't work too well; Barber will be stuffed in the backfield, putting Eli Manning in obvious passing situations. Seattle's secondary is suspect -- it surrendered 249 yards to Ken Dorsey last week, 304 yards to Marc Bulger the week before, and 334 yards to Kurt Warner three Sundays ago -- so Manning should be able to locate Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer all afternoon. If the Giants want to win this game, they will have to protect their quarterback; Seattle has already registered a whopping 34 sacks this season.

Excluding Manning's improvement as a signal caller, the reason why New York is 7-3 is its defense. The Giants added middle linebacker Antonio Pierce this offseason, and it paid off; they are ranked fifth against the run. If Shaun Alexander has a game where he finally struggles, it will occur against the Giants. Like Manning, Matt Hasselbeck will be forced into third-and-long situations -- and like Manning, he'll be able to convert against a porous secondary that yields 237 yards per contest. Hasselbeck will have to evade defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan, who have combined for 15 sacks. Luckily for Hasselbeck, his offensive line has only permitted 16 all year.

The Seahawks and the Giants are about as equal as you can get. Seattle will win because this game takes place in the Pacific Northwest. But, that doesn't mean that the Seahawks will cover.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Line Movement: Seahawks -5 (open) to Seahawks -5 to Seahawks -4 to Seahawks -5.
  • Total Movement: 47 (open) to 47 to 48 to 47.
  • Weather: Showers, 45 degrees. Light wind, 6 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Matt Hasselbeck, Bobby Engram.
  • Sit Em: Tiki Barber, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Seahawks by 3. (Seahawks +5). Over.




Saints (2-8) at Jets (2-8). Line: Jets by 1. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Jets by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Jets by 2.

The Game. Edge: Saints.
Injuries: Saints: OUT: RB Deuce McAllister, S Jay Bellamy, KR Michael Lewis. Jets: OUT: QB Chad Pennington, QB Jay Fiedler, RB Derrick Blaylock, WR Wayne Chrebet, OT Jason Fabini, C Kevin Mawae.

How pathetic has the Jets' offense looked the past two weeks? It managed three points against Carolina and zero at Denver. I'm going out on a limb here, but I would speculate that Herman Edwards wishes he had a healthy Chad Pennington or Jay Fiedler facilitating his offense.

Well, I'm sure Jim Haslett wishes he had Deuce McAllister for this contest because the Jets cannot stop the run. However, Antowain Smith has shown the ability to move the chains against porous rush defenses. Smith should be able to come close to 100 rushing yards, setting up play-action opportunities for Aaron Brooks. The Jets do a better job stopping the pass, but that isn't saying much; they could not contain Jake Plummer or Drew Brees recently. Brooks will have all day to throw, as New York has compiled only 16 sacks this year. The only chance the Jets have of stopping New Orleans is by picking off a few passes. Brooks has thrown 13 picks this season, while the Jets have accumulated 13 themselves.

Like the Jets, the Saints are absolutely awful on defense. They are 28th against the run, they cannot stop the pass and they often fail to get pressure on opposing signal callers. However, the Jets don't have the offensive pieces that New Orleans possesses. The 32-year-old Curtis Martin is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, while Brooks Bollinger does not have the arm to throw deep. New York utilizes a dink-and-dunk offense, so maybe the Saints can actually stop that. Or maybe not.

For years, Edwards has been able to get the most out of his team by motivating them to play hard. But, the Jets may have thrown in the towel in the wake of the rumors that Edwards will be taking the Kansas City job if Dick Vermeil retires.


The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Extreme Line Movement: Teams that have had the line change in their favor by three or more points are 2-4 ATS this year.
  • Saints are 28-18 ATS on the road since 2000.
  • Saints are 18-11 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Saints -1 (open) to Saints -1 to Pick to Jets -1 to Jets -1.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Sunny, 42 degrees. Light wind, 10 mph.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Saints by 4. (Saints +1). Over.




Steelers (7-3) at Colts (10-0). Line: Colts by 8. Over-Under: 47.
Monday, 9:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 11 Games): Colts by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 11 Games): Colts by 8.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch. PROBABLE: QB Ben Roethlisberger*. Colts: OUT: CB Donald Strickland.

It would be obvious to stay that Ben Roethlisberger's availability will have a huge impact, but I'll say it anyway. If Tommy Maddox starts, the Steelers might as well dress up as Colts fans and pretend that they got lost on the way to the RCA Dome.

If Roethlisberger starts, the Steelers will attempt to establish the run with Willie Parker, Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley. Pittsburgh's three-headed monster at running back will be successful in moving the chains because Indianapolis is ranked 25th against the run. The Steelers' mammoth offensive line will simply overpower a physically weak Colts defensive front. If Roethlisberger even needs to throw the ball, he will utilize play-action and locate Hines Ward, Heath Miller and Antwaan Randle El downfield. Indianapolis has a pair of solid safeties, but its corners -- Nick Harper, Marlin Jackson and Jason David -- are among the weakest cornerbacking units in the NFL.

If Maddox starts, Indianapolis will load the line of scrimmage, coaxing the shaky signal caller to beat them. Maddox will undoubtedly complete more passes to Colts defensive backs than to his own wide outs. A Maddox start equals a blowout loss.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense will be charged with the challenge of stopping Indianapolis' offense. It won't be easy, but the Steelers do have the personnel to keep the Colts in check. Edgerrin James won't be able to maintain his pristine yards-per-carry average of 4.5 because the Steelers have a stalwart defensive front that will stuff James in the backfield. Peyton Manning will be forced to throw to move the chains, which shouldn't be a problem against Pittsburgh's woeful secondary. However, Manning, who has only been sacked seven times this season, might feel pressure for a change; the Steelers' hectic blitzing schemes have produced 30 sacks this season.

Once again, if Roethlisberger is healthy and he starts, this game will be close and could be decided by a last-season field goal. If Maddox starts, you might as well shut your television sets off at halftime. This pick will be changed if Roethlisberger is out.

Wednesday Injury Update: Ben Roethlisberger was upgraded to probable on Tuesday night.


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Double Road Alert: Bill Cowher is 4-0 ATS on the road following a road loss.
  • Steelers are 16-7 ATS on Monday Night Football the previous 23 instances.
  • Line Movement: Colts -7 (open) to Colts -7 to Colts -8 to Colts -8 to Colts -8.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, Dallas Clark, Hines Ward, Heath Miller.
  • Sit Em: Both Defenses (unless Roethlisberger is out).

Prediction: Steelers by 3. (Steelers +8). Money Pick. Upset Special. Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 2-7
Eagles: 4-6
Giants: 5-4
Redskins: 5-5

Bears: 6-3
Lions: 5-4
Packers: 5-5
Vikings: 5-5

Buccaneers: 6-4
Falcons: 6-4
Panthers: 7-2
Saints: 5-4

49ers: 2-8
Cardinals: 4-6
Rams: 4-6
Seahawks: 4-6

Bills: 5-5
Dolphins: 5-5
Jets: 5-5
Patriots: 4-6

Bengals: 7-3
Browns: 6-4
Ravens: 4-6
Steelers: 5-5

Colts: 7-3
Jaguars: 5-5
Texans: 5-5
Titans: 6-4

Broncos: 3-6
Chargers: 5-4
Chiefs: 5-4
Raiders: 8-1

Divisional Games: 25-24
Trend Edge: 22-28
Game Edge: 20-23
Game & Trend Edge: 2-5


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 2-2 (+$80)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 0-1 (-$440)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 8, 2014): 9-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 8, 2014): $0

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-1, 50.0% (+$370)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 63-68-6, 48.1% (-$615)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-20, 55.6% (+$850)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 3-7-1, 30.0% (-$1,770)
2014 Season Over-Under: 68-51-1, 57.1% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$690

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,077-1,912-116, 52.1% (+$11,800)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 669-603-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 279-241-11 (53.7%)
Career Over-Under: 1,609-1,588-47 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-5
Bears: 3-5
Bucs: 5-2
49ers: 3-3
Eagles: 4-3
Lions: 2-5
Falcons: 3-5
Cardinals: 3-4
Giants: 2-5
Packers: 5-2
Panthers: 2-6
Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 5-3
Vikings: 6-2
Saints: 3-3
Seahawks: 3-4
Bills: 3-5
Bengals: 2-6
Colts: 4-4
Broncos: 4-3
Dolphins: 5-1
Browns: 3-2
Jaguars: 3-5
Chargers: 2-6
Jets: 4-4
Ravens: 2-5
Texans: 5-3
Chiefs: 4-2
Patriots: 4-4
Steelers: 3-5
Titans: 4-3
Raiders: 3-4
Divisional: 13-18 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 7-9 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 7-12 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 18-16 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 13-8 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 4-5 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
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2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
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2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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