Rams (8-8) at Seahawks (9-7). Line: Seahawks by 4. Over-Under: 50.
Saturday, 4:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Seahawks by 3.

The Game. Edge: Rams.
Injuries: RAMS: OUT: OT Kyle Turley, G Chris Dishman, C Dave Wohlabaugh, S Zack Bronson. DOUBTFUL: G Tom Nutten. QUESTIONABLE: RB Arlen Harris, WR Isaac Bruce*, DE Leonard Little, DL Tyoka Jackson. SEAHAWKS: OUT: LB Anthony Simmons, S Damien Robinson, P Tom Rouen. QUESTIONABLE: TE Itula Mili.

It's almost scary how similar these two teams are. Both offenses are facilitated by erratic but talented quarterbacks, both have outstanding and athletic skill players, both have Pro Bowl left tackles who hold out every season, both have porous defenses and both have coaches named Mike, who are criticized more than most coaches in the NFL. However, the one key difference between the Seahawks and the Rams is the latter's domination over the former.

Mike Martz, known for his stubbornness regarding his neglection of the running game, ran the ball 28 times with Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson against the Seahawks in St. Louis' 23-12 victory on Nov. 14. The two rushers combined for 186 yards against a defense that permits 4.5 yards per carry. If Martz sticks to his ground attack, the Rams will score plenty of points in this contest. Seattle will have to place eight men in the box, opening the play-action door for Marc Bulger, who completed 23 of 34 passes for 262 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting between these two squads.

There is no doubt that a disgruntled Shaun Alexander will rush for nearly 200 yards. After all, Alexander gained 326 yards in the two meetings between the Seahawks and Rams. However, Matt Hasselbeck was not able to take advantage of Alexander's 176-yard performance on Nov. 14. In fact, Hasselbeck was brutal, completing just 15 of 36 passes for 172 yards and an interception.

The Cowboys always beat the Redskins. Miami always gives New England the fits. For some reason, St. Louis possesses domination over Seattle. The Rams will sweep the Seahawks.


The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • History: Rams have won the last 3 meetings.
  • Rams are 6-17 ATS in road games since 2001.
  • Seahawks are 2-6 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: .
  • Total Movement: 52 (open) to 50.
  • Weather: Rain/Snow Showers, 42 degrees. 6 MPH Wind.

Prediction: Rams by 10. (Rams +4). Money Pick. Under.




Jets (10-6) at Chargers (12-4). Line: Chargers by 6. Over-Under: 43.
Saturday, 8:00 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Chargers by 6.

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
Injuries: JETS: OUT: DT Josh Evans, CB Ray Mickens. CHARGERS: OUT: WR Reche Caldwell, OT Courtney Van Buren, LB Zeke Moreno. QUESTIONABLE: RB Jesse Chatman, WR Keenan McCardell*, WR/PR Tim Dwight.

There are no medians in the prognostication of this game. People are either calling for an upset or a blowout. Those who were frantically jumping on San Diego -6 are the Charger-believers. Those who are picking the Jets in an upset think the Chargers and their signal caller, Drew Brees are frauds.

I am a Charger-believer. San Diego has one of the most potent offenses in the NFL because LaDainian Tomlinson is a dynamic threat out of the backfield and Antonio Gates has emerged as the best tight end in the NFL not named Tony Gonzalez. Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker have become lethal downfield targets, capitalizing on all the attention that Tomlinson and Gates are garnering. Brees is making plays and not mistakes, as indicated by his astronomical quarterback rating of 104.8. The good news for New York is their defense yields just 3.7 yards per rush. The bad news? Their beleaguered secondary cannot stop anyone; they surrendered 432 yards to the Rams on Sunday. Brees will torch the Jets' secondary with ease.

Chad Pennington is as accurate as quarterbacks can be, unless he is facing a hard-hitting defense. Pennington has faltered against the Patriots, Steelers and Bills, wildly over-throwing his receivers in each of those games. San Diego's talented linebacking corps will knock Pennington around, forcing some errant throws and interceptions. The young signal caller will be operating in many long-yardage situations because Curtis Martin will struggle to gain significant yardage against a stop unit that allows just 3.8 yards per rush.

Pennington must get over his fear of playing hard-hitting defenses. Jets fans will get a sense of deja vu during the course of this game. Pennington was terrible against the Oakland Raiders in a 2002 divisional playoff contest, and will once again be the reason New York doesn't advance far into the post-season.


The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • Chargers are 6-1 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Chargers -5 (open) to Chargers -6 to Chargers -6.
  • Total Movement: 44 (open) to 44 to 43.
  • Weather: Showers, 56 degrees. 12 MPH Mild Wind.

Prediction: Chargers by 17. (Chargers -6). Money Pick. Under.




Broncos (10-6) at Colts (12-4). Line: Colts by 9. Over-Under: 56.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Colts by 10.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
Injuries: BRONCOS: OUT: RB Mike Anderson, RB Quentin Griffin, DT Luther Elliss, CB Lenny Walls, CB Willie Middlebrooks. QUESTIONABLE: G Dan Neil, DE Trevor Pryce. COLTS: OUT: CB Donald Strickland. QUESTIONABLE: TE Dallas Clark*.

Mike Shanahan made it a point to acquire talent in the secondary after the 41-10 disaster in the playoffs last year. He traded All-Pro running back Clinton Portis to the Redskins for cover corner Champ Bailey and signed free agent John Lynch. The Broncos' pass defense improved and permitted just 184 passing yards per contest. Will Shanahan's acquisitions pay off when it matters most? We will find out Sunday.

Let's start with the obvious. Indianapolis will score on Denver's defense. They will score a lot. No one can stop the Colts offense except for the New England Patriots and Florida Gators. Peyton Manning will humiliate Denver's secondary, who have been calling the Indianapolis receivers "soft" all week. The Colts should be able to score on every possession.

The only way to beat Indianapolis in a non-outdoor playoff contest is to outscore them. The Colts have a very suspect defense and the Broncos have the running game to exploit a "can't stop anyone"-unit that is ranked 31st against opposing ground attacks. However, Denver will have to overcome a few Jake Plummer mistakes, which they cannot do in this game because their offense must be flawless to keep up with Indianapolis. Plummer, the unquestioned worst quarterback in the playoffs, will be able to utilize play-action bootlegs and connect downfield to Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie. Plummer will also throw an untimely interception, fumble a few times, or attempt a left-handed, behind the back, hook pass. Count on it.

Shanahan made the right corrections to his defense but failed to change the weakest link in his chain-the quarterback.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Line Movement: Colts -10 (open) to Colts -9.
  • Total Movement: .
  • Weather: Dome.

Prediction: Colts by 24. (Colts -9). Double Money Pick. Over.




Vikings (8-8) at Packers (10-6). Line: Packers by 6. Over-Under: 50.
Sunday, 4:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Packers by 7.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: VIKINGS: OUT: TE Jim Kleinsasser, OT Mike Rosenthal, CB Ken Irvin, S Tyrone Carter, K Aaron Elling. DOUBTFUL: S Corey Chavous. QUESTIONABLE: WR Kelly Campbell, CB Terrance Shaw. PACKERS: OUT: C Mike Flanagan. DOUBTFUL: WR Robert Ferguson*. QUESTIONABLE: LB Hannibal Navies, LB Paris Lenon.

If Mike Martz rides a train and Herman Edwards rides a bus, the Mike Tice garbage truck is beeping because the Vikings backed into the playoffs. After commencing the 2004 season with a 5-1 record, Minnesota lost seven of their next ten, including a 1-4 finish to their campaign. The lone victory was a 28-27 slugfest at Detroit, which culminated in a botched-extra point by the Lions.

The Vikings are tanking and their defense is to blame. Their stop unit yields 4.5 yards per carry to opposing rushers, while their secondary is even more pathetic, surrendering 254 passing yards per contest on the road. Like the two regular season meetings with Minnesota, the Packers will move the chains with Ahman Green, setting up play-action and screens for Brett Favre. There is no way Green Bay punts more than thrice-the amount of times they punted in their 34-31 victory over the Vikings on Christmas Eve.

Green Bay will not run away with an easy victory because their defense is just as humiliating as Minnesota's. They are worse against the run (4.7 yards per rush) but a little better against the pass (229 yards per game). Daunte Culpepper will connect downfield with Randy Moss and Nate Burleson, but the Vikings cannot run the ball, which means they might have problems converting a few third and long situations. They consequently punted four times in their last meeting against the Packers, which proved to be the difference in a game decided by a last-second field goal.

Minnesota will keep this game close but they have no chance of claiming victory. How can they win at Lambeau, when they can't even win at Chicago or Washington? After all, they are 1-20 in their last 21 road games.


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • History: Packers have won the last 3 meetings.
  • Vikings are 1-20 in outdoor games since 2001 (7-14 ATS).
  • Packers are 8-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Packers are 2-6 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Packers -5 (open) to Packers -6 to Packers -6.
  • Total Movement: 48 (open) to 49 to 50.
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 36 degrees. 11 MPH Mild Wind.

Prediction: Packers by 3. (Vikings +6). Over.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 9-6
Eagles: 10-6
Giants: 8-8
Redskins: 9-7

Bears: 8-8
Lions: 7-9
Packers: 9-7
Vikings: 5-11

Buccaneers: 7-7
Falcons: 8-7
Panthers: 10-5
Saints: 10-6

49ers: 7-9
Cardinals: 10-6
Rams: 8-7
Seahawks: 8-8

Bills: 12-4
Dolphins: 7-9
Jets: 9-6
Patriots: 9-5

Bengals: 9-7
Browns: 11-5
Ravens: 9-7
Steelers: 5-11

Colts: 10-5
Jaguars: 9-7
Texans: 11-5
Titans: 6-10

Broncos: 8-5
Chargers: 9-5
Chiefs: 5-11
Raiders: 10-6

Divisional Games: 47-43
Trend Edge: 33-38
Game Edge: 43-42
Game & Trend Edge: 9-8


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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 3-2 (+$350)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 3, 2014): 9-7 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 3, 2014): -$220

2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-1, 0% (-$330)

2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 29-33-2, 46.8% (-$930)
2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 15-12, 55.6% (+$630)
2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 0-2, %0 (-$880)
2014 Season Over-Under: 27-20-1, 57.5% ($0)
2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$490

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,043-1,877-113, 52.1% (+$11,495)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 659-595-31 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 270-236-10 (53.4%)
Career Over-Under: 1568-1557-47 (50.1%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 1-2
Bears: 0-3
Bucs: 2-1
49ers: 1-2
Eagles: 1-2
Lions: 1-2
Falcons: 1-2
Cardinals: 1-2
Giants: 2-1
Packers: 1-2
Panthers: 0-3
Rams: 1-2
Redskins: 2-1
Vikings: 2-1
Saints: 2-1
Seahawks: 2-1
Bills: 1-2
Bengals: 0-3
Colts: 1-2
Broncos: 2-1
Dolphins: 3-0
Browns: 2-0
Jaguars: 1-2
Chargers: 0-3
Jets: 1-2
Ravens: 0-2
Texans: 2-1
Chiefs: 3-0
Patriots: 2-1
Steelers: 1-2
Titans: 1-2
Raiders: 2-1
Divisional: 6-5 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 2-4 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 4-3 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 7-7 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 6-3 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 2-2 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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