Bills (6-9) at Patriots (13-2). Line: Patriots by 8. Over-Under: 33.
Saturday, 1:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Patriots by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Patriots by 8.

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
*** Izell Reese is OUT and Mike Williams is QUESTIONABLE for Buffalo.

This is major revenge for New England. In the season opener, Buffalo sliced and diced them, in an emotional game, mainly because Lawyer Milloy signed with Buffalo after being released by the Patriots earlier that week. Before that September 7th matchup, Bill Belichick never lost to Drew Bledsoe, and I think that will continue here. Bledsoe is already struggling and Belichick's crazy schemes will confuse him, which will lead to interceptions. Travis Henry will not gain much yardage, because New England is 6th against the run.

Buffalo was able to blank the Patriots on opening day. Something that isn't well documented is that the Patriots did not change their audibles, and whenever they audibled, the Bills knew what play the Patriots were running, because Lawyer Milloy told them everything. Things will be different this time. New England won't be able to run on Buffalo, but Tom Brady will have some success throwing the football.

Note: After finding that my record is 10-4 whenever I have a double star edge in both the trends and game, I've decided to push this game from a Money Pick to a special Saturday Double Money Pick.


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 5 of the last 6.
  • Revenge Situation: New England was blown out by Buffalo on 9/7.
  • Patriots are 20-11 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Patriots are 8-1 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Patriots are 7-0 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Patriots -8 (open) to Patriots -9 (12/21) to Patriots -8 (12/22) to Patriots -8 (12/23).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Sunny, 40 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Tom Brady, New England Defense.
  • Sit Em Buffalo Offense and Defense, Antowain Smith.

Prediction: Patriots by 17. Bonus Double Money Pick. Under.




Seahawks (9-6) at 49ers (7-8). Line: Pick. Over-Under: 44.
Saturday, 5:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): 49ers by 1.

The Game. Edge: None.
*** Reggie Tongue and Orlando Huff are QUESTIONABLE and Jerry Wunsch is DOUBTFUL for Seattle. Terrell Owens and Zach Bronson are OUT and Ron Stone, Ahmed Plummer, Garrison Hearst and Jimmy Williams are QUESTIONABLE for San Francisco.

This is the ultimate test for Seattle. They must win on the road, where they've struggled all year long. San Francisco will not lay down and get beaten easily, for they remember their October 12th meeting where they lost to the Seahawks, 20-19. The 49ers are simply average at defending running attacks, and Shaun Alexander will have to have a big day for Seattle to win. If Alexander carries the ball 25 times and goes over 125 yards rushing, Seattle will win this game, because moving the ball on the ground like that will make it easier for a banged up Matt Hasselbeck.

Seattle's defense on the road has been anemic. They're much weaker against the run than their ranking says they are (they are ranked 11th). Kevan Barlow ripped apart a Philadelphia run defense last Sunday, and while Seattle's defense is better than Philly's, Barlow should still have a pretty good game. The 49ers will be without Terrell Owens, which hurts the 49ers' passing attack. However, the Seahawks are 22nd against the pass, so it might not matter much.


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 9-17 ATS in 2003. 49ers won in overtime.
  • History: 49ers have won 2 of the last 3.
  • Seahawks are 1-5 ATS on the road this year (1-6 straight up).
  • 49ers are 5-2 ATS at home this year.
  • 49ers are 17-13 ATS at home since 2000.
  • 49ers are 5-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Rain, 55 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Shaun Alexander, Kevan Barlow.
  • Sit Em Matt Hasselbeck, Terrell Owens (out).

Prediction: Seahawks by 3. Under.




Eagles (11-4) at Redskins (5-10). Line: Eagles by 6. Over-Under: 40.
Saturday, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Eagles by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Eagles by 4.

The Game. Edge: Eagles.
*** Carlos Emmons is OUT and Troy Vincent is DOUBTFUL for Philadelphia. Patrick Ramsey is OUT, LaDell Betts, Trung Canidate and David Terrell are DOUBTFUL and Taylor Jacobs and Champ Bailey are QUESTIONABLE for Washington.

Unlike San Francisco, Washington has one of the weaker run defenses in football, so Philadelphia should be able to run all over them, if Andy Reid doesn't abandon the running game this weekend. The Redskins have two pretty solid corners, but the Eagles have so many options on offense, that it's hard to stop them. The Redskins just don't have that personnel on defense.

It's pretty ironic that the fourth quarterback on the Eagles' opening day roster stands in the way of a first round bye for Philadelphia. However, I don't think Tim Hasselbeck is much of a factor in this game. I believe it comes down to whether or not the Redskins can run against Philadelphia's sorry defense. Washington doesn't give many carries to their running backs, so that leads me to believe that Philly will win and cover.


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
  • History: Eagles have won 4 in a row.
  • Redskins are 11-18 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Redskins are 2-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Redskins are 1-5 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Eagles -7 (open) to Eagles -6 (12/21).
  • Total Movement: 41 (open) to 40 (12/21) to 40 (12/22).
  • Weather: Clear, 33 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook.
  • Sit Em Correll Buckhalter, Tim Hasselbeck, LaDell Betts, Trung Candidate, Washington Defense.

Prediction: Eagles by 10. Over.




Jaguars (5-10) at Falcons (4-11). Line: Falcons by 3. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Falcons by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Falcons by 5.

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
*** Jason Craft is OUT and Tony Brackens is DOUBTFUL for Jacksonville.

Despite the poor records of these two teams, this is one of the better matchups of the day. I'm looking forward to seeing how Jacksonville's outstanding defense performs against Michael Vick. To stop Michael Vick, a team must have a Pro Bowl caliber right end. Well, the Jaguars have Hugh Douglas, who did a number against Atlanta in the playoffs last year. Last Saturday, Vick was pretty much held in check by another stud right end, Simeon Rice. The Falcons were able to move the chains by way of T.J. Duckett, however, the Jaguars have the best run defense in football, only permitting opposing running backs to gain 3.1 yards per carry, which is a spectacular average.

Conversely, Atlanta has problems defending the ground game. Like I state every time I cover a Jacksonville game, I look to see if Fred Taylor will be able to carry the football successfully. If he can do that, the Jaguars have a solid shot at winning the game and getting the money. Taylor should eclipse 150 rushing yards, and he'll lead the Jaguars to their sixth victory of the season.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Falcons are 9-22 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Falcons are 3-5 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement: 43 (open) to 44 (12/23).
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Fred Taylor, Jacksonville Defense.
  • Sit Em Atlanta Offense.

Prediction: Jaguars by 6. Under.




Browns (4-11) at Bengals (8-7). Line: Bengals by 7. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Bengals by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Bengals by 6.

The Game. Edge: Bengals.
*** William Green, Courtney Brown, Lewis Sanders, Phil Dawson, Anthony Henry, James Jackson, Jeff Faine and Antonio Garay are OUT and Barry Stokes is QUESTIONABLE for Cleveland. Peter Warrick is DOUBTFUL and Eric Steinbach is QUESTIONABLE for Cincinnati.

At the start of the season, the Browns were perceived to be blessed with two solid quarterbacks. Now, both look like third stringers. Neither Tim Couch nor Kelly Holcomb can get the job done. Also, it doesn't help that the Browns don't have a legitimate running back, now that William Green is recovering from being stabbed by his lunatic wife. The Bengals' defense can be beaten via the run, but Cleveland doesn't have the personnel on offense to do that. Look for more Tim Couch turnovers in this contest.

I expect that Cleveland's defense will be playing for pride in this spot, after allowing over 200 rushing yards to Jamal Lewis. However, they were trying their hardest to stop Lewis last Sunday, so I don't think they can defense either Rudi Johnson or Corey Dillon this week. They should combine for well over 150 rushing yards, which will give Jon Kitna play-action to Chad Johnson, Peter Warrick and Kelley Washington.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Browns have won 3 of the last 4.
  • Bengals are 14-16 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Bengals are 5-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Bengals are 4-2 ATS at home this season.
  • Line Movement: Bengals -7 (open) to Bengals -8 (12/21) to Bengals -7 (12/22).
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 41 (12/23).
  • Weather: Showers, 50 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Corey Dillon, Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Defense.
  • Sit Em Clevleand Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Bengals by 14. Money Pick. Under.




Rams (12-3) at Lions (4-11). Line: Rams by 10. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Rams by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Rams by 9.

The Game. Edge: Rams.
*** Isaac Bruce is QUESTIONABLE and Robert Thomas is DOUBTFUL for St. Louis. Corey Harris and Luther Elliss are OUT for Detroit.

It's been well documented that St. Louis has been running the football more often with Marc Bulger at the helm. That's going to be a slight problem in this game, because Detroit is 15th against the run. They've played well against stud running backs, such as Ahman Green, LaDainian Tomlinson and even Priest Holmes. Marshall Faulk should only gain around 70 yards in this contest, which is very unlike the 121 yards he accumulated against Cincinnati. Of course, the Lions are weak against the pass, as they are ranked 29th against it. Isaac Bruce may not play, and Bulger will make some mistakes which should keep Detroit in the game.

St. Louis is ranked 30th against the run, but they've been better against it the past few weeks. Nevertheless, Detroit doesn't have any back that will be of significance in this game. Joey Harrington will have to throw on long yardage situations, which could be a nightmare for Lions fans, because the Rams have picked off 23 passes this season. I think this is going to be an ugly, low scoring game with tons of turnovers.


The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Double Digit Home Dog Alert: Double Digit Home Dogs cover around 85% of the time in NFL history.
  • Star Line Movement Alert: Teams that receive a star in their line movement are 2-6 ATS this season.
  • Lions are 17-14 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Rams -8 (open) to Rams -10 (12/21) to Rams -10 (12/22).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em Detroit Offense.

Prediction: Rams by 9. Money Pick. Under.




Colts (11-4) at Texans (5-10). Line: Colts by 7. Over-Under: 44.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Colts by 7.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Colts by 6.

The Game. Edge: Colts.
*** Adam Meadows is OUT, Jim Nelson and Cory Bird are DOUBTFUL and Rob Morris and Mike Doss are QUESTIONABLE for Indianapolis. Zach Wiegert is DOUBTFUL for Houston.

Like the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis' run defense was finally exposed last Sunday Night against Denver. That's why I never believed the Colts were a serious Super Bowl contender. They will once again be exposed, as Domanick Davis should rip off 5 yards per carry. Of course, that should help David Carr connect with Andre Johnson and his other receivers.

The only concern with taking Houston and the points is that Domanick Davis will not be able to carry the ball much, if the Colts' offense puts up lots of points early against the Texans' defense. Against the run and the pass, the Texans are ranked 21st and 30th, respectively. In their October 26th meeting, Peyton Manning was 22 of 30 for 269 yards, while the Colts ran for 122 yards on 27 carries. However, the Texans kept it close, 30-21. I believe that this will be another close game, but the spread is too perfect.


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • History: Colts have won 3 in a row.
  • Texans are 5-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Retractable Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Indianapolis Offense, Domanick Davis.
  • Sit Em David Carr, Jabar Gaffney, Both Defenses.

Prediction: Colts by 4. Over.




Bears (7-8) at Chiefs (12-3). Line: Chiefs by 10. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Chiefs by 10.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Chiefs by 8.

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
*** Justin Gage, Mike Gandy and Keith Traylor are QUESTIONABLE for Chicago. Eric Warfiel and Mike Maslowski are DOUBTFUL and Derrick Blaylock is QUESTIONABLE for Kansas City.

As you read above, I gave you three teams that were exposed last weekend. Perhaps the worst of those teams, Kansas City, can't stop neither the run, nor the pass. The Chiefs are last in the universe against the ground game, so Anthony Thomas should have a solid outing. However, the Bears' passing game is not what Minnesota's is. Rex Grossman has looked solid in two home games, but playing in Kansas City is much different than in the confines of Soilder Field. If Grossman has another great performance, I'll be shocked, but it's certainley not out of the question, because Chicago will have the A-Train moving the chains.

Like the game above, the stronger team can keep the weaker team out of it, if they can put up some early points. The Bears are 19th against the run, so Priest Holmes could be in for another spectacular Sunday. In theory, Kansas City's excellent offensive line should be able to push Chicago's front seven around, however, this should have happened last Saturday, against Minnesota's 31st ranked run defense, but it didn't. I'll give this running attack another chance, because they are at home. If Priest Holmes is able to run successfully, Kansas City will score lots of points.

Note: Unless Buffalo beats New England (which probably won't happen), the Chiefs won't have anything to play for, because they'll be locked into the second seed. Thus, I have changed my pick, although the Bears are coming off of an emotional win.


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Emotional Win Alert: Teams were 14-32 ATS in 2002 and are 10-17 ATS in 2003. Bears kicked a GW FG with 0:05 remaining.
  • Chiefs are 17-14 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 48 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Anthony Thomas, Marty Booker, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez.
  • Sit Em Rex Grossman, Trent Green.

Prediction: Chiefs by 9. Over.




Jets (6-9) at Dolphins (9-6). Line: Dolphins by 4. Over-Under: 37.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Dolphins by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Dolphins by 6.

The Game. Edge: Jets.
*** John Abraham is OUT for New York. James McKnight is OUT and Rob Konrad is QUESTIONABLE for Miami.

How ironic is it that Miami finally won in the cold, but they still got eliminated from playoff berth because the Broncos beat Indianapolis on Sunday Night Football? Their defense has to be deflated, so I think the Jets will be able to move the chains against the Dolphins. Of course gaining yardage on the ground will be a tough feat, because the Fins are ranked 2nd against the run. However, their ranking against the pass is much lower (19th), so Chad Pennington could be in for a solid performance. In his only game against the Dolphins, Chad Pennington won, 13-10.

I don't want to hear about Miami's struggles in December, because they've been a fraud all year. They are only 3-4 at home, and if they would have taken care of buisness at Pro Player Stadium, they'd be in the playoffs. At home, they went down to Houston, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and New England. They should have won all of those games, although losing one would have been acceptable (perhaps the latter because the Patriots are far and away the best team in the NFL). A 6-1 home record would have yielded a 12-3 overall record, and they'd be one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Sorry to digress, but I had to vent. Anyway, I don't see how the oddsmaker could put a line on this game, because Ricky Williams is questionable, and he undoubtedly plays a major factor in this contest, because the Jets are 20th against the run. This game doesn't matter in the slightest, so I'll assume that Williams doesn't play. Without him, Miami will have trouble moving the chains, because Jay Fiedler will be throwing into the 6th ranked pass defense in Pro Football.


The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • History: Jets have won 9 of last 11.
  • Dolphins are 19-12 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Dolphins are 5-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Dolphins are 1-6 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 78 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Chad Pennington, Santana Moss.
  • Sit Em Jay Fiedler, Ricky Williams (questionable).

Prediction: Jets by 3. Under.




Cowboys (10-5) at Saints (7-8). Line: Cowboys by 1. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Cowboys by 1.

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
*** Joe Horn is OUT and Deuce McAllister, Orlando Ruff, Cie Grant, Michael Lewis and Willie Whitehead are QUESTIONABLE for New Orleans.

This line and the movement of the line really shocked me. First of all, I made my projected line without the knowledge that Joe Horn would be out. Secondly, Deuce McAllister is questionable and the Saints have nothing to play for, so why is the public favoring New Orleans? Anyway, don't be shocked if Troy Hambrick has another 125+ rushing yard day. The Saints are 29th against the run, and they have nothing to play for. Plus, they have to be deflated that John Carney missed the extra point that would have tied the game, after one of the greatest plays in NFL history. The Saints are ranked 4th against the pass, which really is shocking, but they will be too preoccupied with stopping Troy Hambrick.

Against the run and the pass, the Cowboys are ranked 4th and 1st, respectively. With Joe Horn out and Deuce McAllister potentially unavailable, Dallas could pitch a shutout in the Big Easy. If Philadelphia somehow loses to Washington on Saturday Night, look for this to be a Double Money Pick, even though the spread could move three points in Dallas' favor.


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Saints are 11-20 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Cowboys -2 (open) to Cowboys -2 (12/22) to Cowboys -1 (12/23).
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 39 (12/21) to 38 (12/23).
  • Weather: Dome.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Troy Hambrick, Dallas Defense.
  • Sit Em New Orleans Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Cowboys by 20. Under.




Buccaneers (7-8) at Titans (11-4). Line: Titans by 6. Over-Under: 41.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Titans by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Titans by 6.

The Game. Edge: Titans.
*** Kenyatta Walker is QUESTIONABLE for Tampa Bay. Steve McNair, Robert Holcombe, Derrick Mason, Andre Dyson and Eddie Berlin are QUESTIONABLE and Rocky Calmus is OUT for Tennessee.

When the schedule first came out, this looked like a marquee matchup; the defending Super Bowl champions versus the team that very well could have played them in the Super Bowl, if it wasn't for two key late first half turnovers in the AFC Championship. However, this was not meant to be. After last week's game against Atlanta, Tampa Bay was already talking about next year. That tells you how they will approach this game. I think the Buccaneers will be unfocused and unprepared in all aspects of the game. They certainely will not be able to run against the Titans' 7th ranked run defense, and Brad Johnson could throw a few more interceptions.

On the other side, Tampa Bay is weak against powerful running backs with solid offensive lines. You saw it last Saturday when T.J. Duckett of all backs was able to run successfully against the Buccaneers' so-called solid defense. Steve McNair will play, but he might not even have to do much, because Eddie George will be ripping off big gains up the middle. Also, I feel it is important to note that the Titans have everything to play for, because their game goes at the same time as Indianapolis'. With a win and a Colts loss, the Titans could claim the AFC South and a first round home game.


The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Titans are 15-16 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Titans are 5-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Titans are 4-3 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Titans -6 (open) to Titans -7 (12/22) to Titans -6 (12/23).
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 41 (12/22).
  • Weather: Showers, 57 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Tennessee Offense and Defense.
  • Sit Em Tampa Bay Offense and Defense.

Prediction: Titans by 31. Double Money Pick. Blowout Special. Under.




Vikings (9-6) at Cardinals (3-12). Line: Vikings by 7. Over-Under: 45.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Vikings by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Vikings by 7.

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
*** Chris Claiborne and Michael Bennett are QUESTIONABLE for Minnesota. Pete Kendall is DOUBTFUL and L.J. Shelton are QUESTIONABLE for Arizona.

Defensively, Arizona is a different team at Sun Devil Stadium than they are on the road. At home, they've stopped many quality running backs, such as Ahman Green, Stephen Davis and Marshall Faulk. Their run defense at home has translated into strong performances. In fact, they've only lost one game by more than 8 points, which was their September 14th matchup against Seattle. Last Saturday, Minnesota was able to gain over 200 rushing yards against Kansas City's pathetic defense. However, Arizona should hold the Vikings to minimal yardage, despite this game being very important for the Vikes. If Daunte Culpepper is put into long yardage situations, he may throw interceptions or fumble the football.

Minnesota's run defense was impressive against Kansas City, but I doubt they can do what they did again. They are still ranked 31st against rushing attacks, so I feel that Marcel Shipp could gain over 100 yards on the ground. If he can do so, it'll help out Josh McCown, who was impressive against the Seahawks last week, throwing 25 of 40, for 274 yards and a touchdown. Look for a similar game from the former Sam Houston State standout.


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Cardinals are 14-17 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Vikings -8 (open) to Vikings -8 (12/21) to Vikings -7 (12/22).
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Sunny, 56 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Josh McCown, Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin.
  • Sit Em Onterrio Smith, Michael Bennett, Michael Bennett.

Prediction: Cardinals by 3. Money Pick. UPSET OF THE MONTH. Under.




Panthers (10-5) at Giants (4-11). Line: Panthers by 5. Over-Under: 34.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Panthers by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Panthers by 5.

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
*** Stephen Davis, Mike Rucker, Jeff Mitchell and Brentson Buckner are QUESTIONABLE and Terry Cousin is DOUBTFUL for Carolina. Kenny Holmes, Will Allen, Shaun Williams, William Peterson and Wayne Lucier are OUT, Jeremey Shockey and Kerry Collins are DOUBTFUL and Ike Hilliard is QUESTIONABLE for New York.

This game means nothing for Carolina, because they'll play a game at home in the playoffs, no matter what. Last week's game didn't matter either, but Jake Delhomme came out firing during two quick touchdown drives. New York is 27th against the pass, mainly because their entire starting secondary is out, so they can be beaten in that regard. Stephen Davis is questionable, but I really doubt that he's going to play in this game. DeShaun Foster can carry the load effectively, and although the Giants are 10th against the run, they've clearly given up.

If Tiki Barber can't run the ball efficiently, the Giants will struggle because Jesse Palmer isn't ready to be in long yardage situations, especially with his horrific offensive line and banged up receivers. Kerry Collins couldn't even convert them; in fact, that's where his interceptions and fumbles have come from. Plus, you can always count on one or two Tiki Barber fumbles. Carolina is ranked 13th and 12th against the run and the pass, respectively, so their defense should be able to distrupt the Giants' offense, who have scored: 3, 7, 7, 7, 13, 10 and 7 points going back to November 9th.


The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • Giants are 8-22 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Giants are 3-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Giants are 1-6 ATS at home this year.
  • Line Movement: Panthers -4 (open) to Panthers -5 (12/23).
  • Total Movement: 34 (open) to 34 (12/23).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 44 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Carolina Defense.
  • Sit Em Stephen Davis (questionable), Kerry Collins, Jesse Palmer, Amani Toomer.

Prediction: Panthers by 6. Under.




Broncos (10-5) at Packers (9-6). Line: Packers by 6. Over-Under: 43.
Sunday, 4:15 ET
WALTER'S GAME OF THE WEEK.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Packers by 4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Packers by 7.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
*** Clinton Portis is OUT and Dan Neil is DOUBTFUL for Denver.

What a tremendous performance by Brett Favre on Monday Night, who threw for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first half, despite the weight of his father's death on his mind. He was incredibley accurate, even under pressure. If he plays like he did against the Raiders, the Packers could be looking at the Super Bowl. I don't know if he can keep it up, but I think he'll play for his father again in this contest, especially since the playoffs (and possibly a division title) are on the line. The Broncos are somehow ranked 8th against the pass, but their secondary can be beaten.

Green Bay is much better against the run than the Indianapolis Colts are. Indy allowed Quentin Griffin to gain 136 yards on Sunday Night. Clinton Portis is questionable, but I don't think he'll play because the Broncos have already clinched playoff berth. Green Bay should shut down Griffin, which nullifies Jake Plummer's play-action bootlegs.


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Improbable Cover: Teams playing on the road a week after winning and covering on the road are 9-13 ATS this year.
  • Packers are 19-12 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Packers are 7-2 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Showers, 37 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Brett Favre, Javon Walker.
  • Sit Em Clinton Portis (questionable), Quentin Griffin, Ed McCaffrey, Ashley Lelie.

Prediction: Packers by 14. Bonus Double Money Pick. Over.




Raiders (4-11) at Chargers (3-12). Line: Chargers by 4. Over-Under: 46.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Chargers by 2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Chargers by 3.

The Game. Edge: None.
*** Frank Middleton and Mo Collins are OUT, Jerry Porter and Barrett Robbins are DOUBTFUL and Derrick Gibson, Sean Gilbert and Napoleon Harris are QUESTIONABLE for Oakland. Reche Caldwell, Jason Ball, Damion McIntosh and Solomon Page are QUESTIONABLE for San Diego.

This is another game that I thought would be a marquee matchup when the schedule came out. Actually, both teams look identical because they have strong running attacks, subpar starting quarterbacks and terrible defenses that can't stop neither the run nor the pass. I was shocked that the Raiders didn't try to run the football more often on Monday Night against the Packers, but they should get back to it here, as San Diego permitted Jerome Bettis to go over 100 rushing yards. Now, that's pathetic. Something else that's pathetic is the Chargers' secondary, which ranks 28th in pro football. Even Rick Mirer can look good against that.

LaDainian Tomlinson's injury plays a major role in determining the winner of this game. The Raiders are 22nd against the run, so Tomlinson could gain over 150 rushing yards. Moving the chains on the ground like that would help Drew Brees, who will be throwing into the 21st ranked pass defense. If Tomlinson can't go, Leon Johnson will be the ball carrier. Johnson won't be effective, and thus neither will Brees.


The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • History: Raiders have won 10 of last 12.
  • Chargers are 11-19 ATS at home since 2000.
  • Chargers are 1-7 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement:
  • Total Movement:
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 61 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Tyrone Wheatley, Jerry Rice.
  • Sit Em Rick Mirer, Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson (questionable), David Boston.

Prediction: Raiders by 3. Under.




Steelers (6-9) at Ravens (9-6). Line: Ravens by 7. Over-Under: 38.
Sunday Night Football, 8:30 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 17 Games): Ravens by 6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 17 Games): Ravens by 6.

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
*** Chad Scott is OUT and Brent Alexander is QUESTIONABLE for Pittsburgh. Adalius Thomas is OUT, Bennie Anderson, Edgerton Hartwell and Peter Boulware are QUESTIONABLE for Baltimore.

Pittsburgh has had Baltimore's number the past couple of years, so the Ravens will have to overcome domination to win this game. Pittsburgh has gone back to smashmouth football; running up the middle with Jerome Bettis. Unfortunately for the Steelers, the Ravens are ranked fifth against the run. The Steelers have been able to maintain domination over the Ravens by throwing against them, however, the Steelers haven't been able to do much by way of the air this year, due to their terrible offensive line. The Ravens should be able to get plenty of pressure on Tommy Maddox.

Jamal Lewis is going for the single season rushing record, but the Steelers will do everything in their power to see that he doesn't get it. The Steelers are actually very solid against the run, ranking 8th in the NFL. In fact, in their September 7th meeting, they held Jamal Lewis to only 69 yards rushing. Lewis will need more than that to win this game. Last week, Tomlinson managed 91 rushing yards, so 100 is a plausible total for him. Pittsburgh's heavy concentration on Baltimore's running game will help Anthony Wright throw the football into a very generous secondary.


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Steelers have won 6 of last 7.
  • Ravens are 20-11 ATS in home games since 2000.
  • Ravens are 6-3 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Line Movement: Ravens -7 (open) to Ravens -7 (12/23).
  • Total Movement: 40 (open) to 39 (12/21) to 38 (12/22) to 38 (12/23).
  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, 40 degrees.

Fantasy Spin
  • Start Em Jamal Lewis, Todd Heap, Both Defenses.
  • Sit Em Tommy Maddox, Jerome Bettis, Anthony Wright, Travis Taylor.

Prediction: Ravens by 4. Under.


My Team by Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


Cowboys: 8-6
Eagles: 7-8
Giants: 9-6
Redskins: 10-4

Bears: 8-6
Lions: 9-5
Packers: 7-8
Vikings: 9-6

Buccaneers: 7-7
Falcons: 9-6
Panthers: 10-5
Saints: 6-9

49ers: 6-7
Cardinals: 8-7
Rams: 4-10
Seahawks: 7-7

Bills: 3-10
Dolphins: 7-8
Jets: 10-3
Patriots: 10-5

Bengals: 7-7
Browns: 4-11
Ravens: 7-8
Steelers: 9-6

Colts: 7-6
Jaguars: 9-6
Texans: 9-4
Titans: 8-6

Broncos: 9-6
Chargers: 8-7
Chiefs: 6-9
Raiders: 6-8

Divisional Games: 46-41
Trend Edge: 40-28
Game Edge: 31-25
Game & Trend Edge: 10-4

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1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 15, 2014): 6-9-1 (-$1,380)
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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-9
Bears: 7-7
Bucs: 8-6
49ers: 6-7
Eagles: 9-5
Lions: 5-8
Falcons: 6-8
Cardinals: 7-7
Giants: 4-10
Packers: 9-4
Panthers: 5-9
Rams: 6-8
Redskins: 8-6
Vikings: 11-3
Saints: 5-8
Seahawks: 7-7
Bills: 6-8
Bengals: 5-10
Colts: 6-7
Broncos: 7-7
Dolphins: 9-4
Browns: 7-5
Jaguars: 8-6
Chargers: 5-9
Jets: 7-7
Ravens: 6-8
Texans: 6-7
Chiefs: 8-5
Patriots: 7-7
Steelers: 7-7
Titans: 6-6
Raiders: 5-9
Divisional: 31-37 (2011-13: 141-137)
2x Game Edge: 11-16 (2011-13: 55-62)
2x Psych Edge: 23-21 (2011-13: 92-80)
2x Vegas Edge: 39-39 (2011-13: 129-142)
2x Trend Edge: 29-15 (2011-13: 72-78)
Double Edge: 13-11 (2011-13: 27-33)
Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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