Vikings (6-8) at Packers (6-8). Line: Packers by 3½. Over-Under: 37.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Packers -2.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Packers -3.

The Game. Edge: Packers.
Injuries: Vikings: OUT: FB Tony Richardson, DE Erasmus James (IR), LB Chad Greenway (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Chester Taylor*. Packers: OUT: QB Aaron Rodgers (IR), WR Robert Ferguson, OT Kevin Barry (IR), S Marviel Underwood (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Donald Driver*, OT Mark Tauscher.

The NFL Network is billing this game as what could be Brett Favre's final start at Lambeau Field. I don't look at it that way; I see this as the final Lambeau contest before Favre schedules weekly press conferences about nothing in particular. I can see it now: Millions of journalists across the globe flock to Favre's home in Mississippi, only to watch the future Hall of Famer pull out a Magic 8 Ball, shake it and pronounce, “This says ‘try again later.’ Sorry guys, come back next week and maybe I'll have an answer for you next week.”

But if this truly is Favre’s final home game, at least he’ll go out in style. Minnesota’s secondary is an abomination; we all saw what the Jets did to it last week. Actually, the last time these teams played, Favre threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay didn’t even need to run the ball.

Another reason the Packers were triumphant in the first meeting, 23-17, was because the Vikings’ strength on offense happens to be Green Bay’s forte on defense. Minnesota can’t do anything but run the ball with Chester Taylor, who may not even be available for this contest. The Packers, meanwhile, are 10th against opposing ground attacks. This will create problems for rookie Tarvaris Jackson, who will be making his first NFL start.

Jackson’s first road appearance could be Favre’s last at home. That alone is reason enough to take the Packers in this emotional game.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
This new section of my predictions will explore the mindset of each team, and how much the game means to both participants.

The NFC is pure garbage, so the winner of this contest will have a great shot at the playoffs. Pathetic. One factor you have to look at is that this may be Favre's final home game. It'll be very emotional at Lambeau Field.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
This new section of my predictions will how each game is being bet. In some cases, I'll attempt to explain the public perception.

  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 82% (About 17,000 online bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
    • History: Vikings have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
    • Vikings are 13-22 ATS (7-28 SU) outdoors since 2001.
    • Vikings are 3-22 ATS in road finale since 1980.
    • Packers are 9-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Packers -3.
    • Opening Total: 39½.
    • Weather: Freezing rain, 32 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Packers Defense.
    • Sit Em: Vikings Offense and Defense, Ahman Green.

    Prediction: Packers 23, Vikings 10. (Packers -3½).
    Incorrect: Packers 9, Vikings 7.




    Chiefs (7-7) at Raiders (2-12). Line: Chiefs by 7. Over-Under: 36.
    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Chiefs -3½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Chiefs -4½.

    The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
    Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: OT John Welbourn (RET), OT Kevin Sampson, OT Kyle Turley, G Brian Waters, DT John Browning (IR), LB Derrick Johnson. Raiders: OUT: RB LaMont Jordan (IR), DE Lance Johnstone, LB Grant Irons. DOUBTFUL: WR Jerry Porter. QUESTIONABLE: WR Randy Moss, OT Robert Gallery, CB Fabian Washington.

    I'm really glad John Madden coined the term “none-yard pass” during the excruciating and painful Kansas City-San Diego matchup on Sunday night. Now I can say: “Did you see that Herman Edwards and offensive coordinator Mike Solari called their 48,324th none-yard pass on third-and-one?” By the way, I have dibs on “none-IQ brain,” as in “Mike Solari has a none-IQ brain for calling none-yard passes all the time.”

    I also have dibs on “none-heart performance,” as in “The Chiefs had a none-heart performance and didn’t win a game for their beloved owner.” I don’t care that some players tried hard; the team made way too many mistakes in what should have been an easy win and cover. Yeah, I’m still bitter. But the problems Kansas City experienced on offense weren’t an accident; Trent Green has not fully recovered and still has the deer-in-the-headlights look. The Raiders don’t have a great pass rush, but their secondary should be able to pick Green off a few times. Larry Johnson will trample Oakland’s pathetic defensive front, but keep in mind that Kansas City scored only 17 points against the Raiders despite 154 yards from Johnson.

    Oakland put up 13 in that meeting, and I’m not really sure how. Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter are equally horrible; LaMont Jordan is out for the year; Randy Moss has quit on his team; and the offensive line can’t pass protect. The Chiefs should be able to put the clamps on the Raiders; if the Rams can hold a team to zero, Duke and Baylor can probably do it too.

    Have all the Raiders quit? Probably – but this is a nationally televised contest, so I think Oakland will give one final effort in its miserable 2006 campaign. Besides, the Chiefs and Raiders usually play close. Check out the margin of victory since 2003: 7, 3, 7, 1, 6, 4 and 4.


    The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
    It's do or die for the Chiefs; at 7-7, they still have an outside shot at making the playoffs. Maybe they'll actually play for Lamar Hunt this time.

    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
  • Percentage of money on Kansas City: 89% (29,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
    • History: Chiefs have won the last 7 meetings.
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 83-57 ATS on the road following a road loss (Herman Edwards 1-3).
    • Chiefs are 8-13 ATS on the road since 2004.
    • Raiders are 3-16 ATS in their final home game since 1985.
    • Raiders are 6-14 ATS at home the previous 20 instances.
    • Opening Line: Chiefs -4.
    • Opening Total: 39.
    • Weather: Possible showers, 58 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs Defense.
    • Sit Em: Raiders Existence.

    Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 20. (Raiders +7).
    Incorrect: Chiefs 20, Raiders 9.




    Panthers (6-8) at Falcons (7-7). Line: Falcons by 6½. Over-Under: 40½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Falcons -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Falcons -4.

    The Game. Edge: Falcons.
    Injuries: Panthers: OUT: OT Travelle Wharton (IR), C Justin Hartwig, DT Jordan Carstens, LB Dan Morgan. DOUBTFUL: QB Jake Delhomme*. QUESTIONABLE: WR Drew Carter, TE Keis Mangum, PR Taye Biddle. Falcons: OUT: WR Brian Finneran (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR), CB Kevin Mathis (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE John Abraham, CB Jason Webster.

    Now, it's time for the Adventures of Michael Vick Overcoming His Coaching! In this week's episode, Jim Mora Jr. hires an assassin to chop up Vick's leg. However, the assassin misunderstood Mora because the coach had this to say: "Washington shoot Washington Michael Huskies Vick Huskies leg Washington Huskies." Instead of slicing Vick's leg, the assassin shot it with a paintball gun. Vick then overcame his coaches by pulling himself out of the game.

    I’ve waited on this game because of Jake Delhomme’s condition. Well, it looks like he won’t play. Per Thursday’s edition of the Charlotte Observer: “Quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has missed the past two games with a torn ligament in his right thumb, sat out practice again [Thursday], making it less likely that he will be able to play at Atlanta Sunday.” If the Observer is right, Chris Weinke-dinkie-doo will once again be at the helm. There’s a reason he’s something like 1-17 as a starter; he’s the worst quarterback I’ve ever seen. He’s like Drew Bledsoe, Tim Couch, Cade McNown and Doug Pederson rolled into one. If he had an attitude problem, I could include Ryan Leaf. Thus, I don’t expect the Panthers to score many points.

    The most disheartening thing regarding Carolina right now is the fact that its defense quit. It flat out quit against the Steelers. I don’t see how the players will be able to regroup. Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood should be able to duplicate Willie Parker’s performance (132 yards on 23 carries), giving either Michael Vick or Matt Schaub extra time in the pocket. By the way, I don’t care who starts for the Falcons; Schaub is the better overall quarterback anyway.

    If Delhomme is slated to start, I will change this selection, and make the 49ers my Survivor Pick. But without Delhomme, Carolina doesn’t stand much of a chance.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The winner of this contest still has a shot at the playoffs. But the way the two teams are playing, I'm not sure if they want to go to the postseason.

    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 74% (10,000)

    The Trends. Edge: TBA.
    • History: Panthers have won 2 of the last 3 meetings.
    • Weak Arm: Chris Weinke is 0-0* ATS on the road since 2003.
    • Panthers are 21-11 ATS as an underdog the previous 31 instances.
    • Opening Line: Falcons -6½.
    • Opening Total: 42.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Warrick Dunn, Alge Crumpler.
    • Sit Em: Panthers Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Falcons 27, Panthers 10. (Falcons -6½).
    Survivor Pool Pick (15-0).
    Incorrect: Panthers 10, Falcons 3.




    Titans (7-7) at Bills (7-7). Line: Bills by 5. Over-Under: 37.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Pick.

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: Titans: OUT: WR David Givens (IR), TE Ben Troupe, DE Antwan Odom, DT Rien Long (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Travis Henry*, WR Drew Bennett*, TE Bo Scaife, DE Travis LaBoy, P Craig Hentrich. Bills: OUT: G Chris Villarrial, S Troy Vincent (CUT). QUESTIONABLE: WR Peerless Price, LB Takeo Spikes.

    If you look below, you'll see that the Bills are just 2-16 against the spread after they play the Dolphins. Pretty bizarre. Why does this occur? Here are a few reasons I came up with: 1) After playing Jay Fiedler, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, Damon Huard and A.J. Feeley, they forget how good other quarterbacks are in the NFL. 2) Dave Wannstedt and Nick Saban both put laxatives in the Bills' post-game meal (which is stupid because they should do it before they play them). 3) Marv Levy and Ralph Wilson are so excited about beating their archrival that they do too much celebrating – who's up for a 48-hour Matlock matathon!?

    If I’m right about option No. 1, the Bills could be in trouble. Despite all of his detractors – I used to be one of them – Vince Young is 7-4 as a starter, and has beaten opponents like Indianapolis, Jacksonville and the New York Giants. Young played poorly against the Jaguars, but he was barely on the field. The only time the Bills battled a scrambling quarterback this year, Jacksonville put up 24 points, as David Garrard ran for 28 yards on just five carries. Young will be the ex-factor, but the Titans will get their offense moving by pounding Travis Henry; Buffalo is ranked 28th against the run.

    In a recent interview posted on buffalobills.com (find it HERE) I mentioned that two of the reasons the Bills improved was because of J.P. Losman’s progression, and the play of offensive tackles Jason Peters and Terrance Pennington. Despite Tennessee’s 7-7 record, the team is ranked 25th against opposing ground attacks, and has managed only 22 sacks. Buffalo will score its share of points.

    I think Young’s scrambling ability is the wildcard in this game. He failed to run last week, but once again, he didn’t need to. I also can’t go against that crazy aforementioned trend, even though I’m not a fan of Matlock or laxatives.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Titans? Bills? Playoffs? Didn't these teams have a combined record of 2-10 at some point this year?

    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 58% (19,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
    • Vince Young is 7-4 as a starter (9-2 ATS).
    • Bills are 14-6 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by less than 6 points since 2002.
    • Bills are 2-16 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.
    • Opening Line: Bills -4.
    • Opening Total: 37.
    • Weather: Sunny, 41 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 20 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Travis Henry, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Titans 17, Bills 14. (Titans +5).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Titans 30, Bills 29.




    Buccaneers (3-11) at Browns (4-10). Line: Browns by 3. Over-Under: 37.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Browns -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Browns -3.

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: QB Chris Simms, DT Anthony McFarland (TRADE). DOUBTFUL: RB Cadillac Williams. QUESTIONABLE: TE Alex Smith, CB Juran Bolden, CB Phillip Buchanon, CB Torrie Cox, CB Alan Zemaitis. Browns: OUT: C LeCharles Bentley (IR), C Alonzo Ephraim, DE Orpheus Roye, LB D'Qwell Jackson, CB Gary Baxter. QUESTIONABLE: QB Charlie Frye, WR Joe Jurevicius, WR Dennis Northcutt, TE Kellen Winslow Jr.*, G Joe Andruzzi, G Cosey Coleman, DE Alvin McKinley, DE Nick Eason, DT Ted Washington, LB Willie McGinest, LB Andra Davis, CB Leigh Bodden.

    Because watching this game will make you sick, let me bring up Taco Bell for a second. Did anyone see the commercial where the restaurant's chairman, Greg Creed, announced that there were no more traces of E. coli in the food? First of all, I was shocked that the president of Taco Bell was Australian. I would have guessed Mongolian before Australian. Secondly, did you pay attention to what he said? “I can assure you that Taco Bell food is absolutely safe to eat.” Ummm, Mr. Creed? Have you forgotten about the cholesterol and sodium in your artery-clogging food?

    Now that I think about it, this game may not make you sick. It actually could be a shootout; both defenses are terrible, and both quarterbacks are playing really well. I’m not really sure why Jon Gruden didn’t stick with Tim Rattay the entire year; Rattay threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns against Chicago’s stop unit. If he can do that to the Bears, imagine what he’ll be able to accomplish at Cleveland. The Browns’ defense can’t do anything right.

    Speaking of upstart quarterbacks, how did Derek Anderson compile 223 yards and two scores at Baltimore? Did he pay Ray Lewis off? If he did, he won’t have to do the same with the Buccaneers, who have just 21 sacks and seven interceptions this year. Tampa Bay is consequently ranked dead last against aerial attacks.

    Like I said, this will be a shootout. I have to take the points between a pair of equally horrible squads.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Tim Rattay! Derek Anderson! It doesn't get more exciting than that. I'm sure people will be all over this game.............. Not.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
  • Percentage of money on Cleveland: 52% (10,500)

    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 83-57 ATS on the road following a road loss.
    • Browns are 4-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Browns -3.
    • Opening Total: 34.
    • Weather: Sunny, 41 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Tim Rattay, Cadillac Williams, Joey Galloway, Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow Jr., Joe Jurevicius.
    • Sit Em: Browns Running Game, Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Buccaneers 14, Browns 10. (Buccaneers +3).
    Correct: Buccaneers 22, Browns 7.




    Bears (12-2) at Lions (2-12). Line: Bears by 5½. Over-Under: 42½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Bears -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Bears -7.

    The Game. Edge: TBA.
    Injuries: Bears: OUT: DT Tommie Harris (IR), DT Tank Johnson (GUNS), DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), S Mike Brown (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Thomas Jones*, OT John Tait, G Ruben Brown, CB Charles Tillman. Lions: OUT: WR Scottie Vines (PUP), G Damien Woody, DE James Hall (IR), DT Shaun Rogers (IR), LB Teddy Lehman (PUP), CB Fernando Bryant, S Idrees Bashir. DOUBTFUL: LB Teddy Lehman. QUESTIONABLE: TE Marcus Pollard, KR Eddie Drummond.

    The loss to the Packers was a setback for Emilio Estevez. His team was down in the dumps, but after taking them to Chuck E. Cheese, the players realized that all they have to do is believe in themselves. They're also very excited because Estevez found his ringer – a Lions cheerleader who wanted to play football, but the Bears wouldn't let her. She's a hard-hitting linebacker, so the entire city of Detroit is excited over this.

    Speaking of hard-hitting linebackers, Brian Urlacher may not play the entire game. The Bears have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so Lovie Smith may decide to go with his reserves for at least part of this contest. In a similar situation last year, Smith utilized his starters for less than a quarter, and consequently lost to a vastly inferior Vikings squad, 34-10. With the backups in, the Lions will actually score in the 20s. If I’m wrong, however, Chicago’s stop unit will force Jon Kitna into about four interceptions; he already has 21 this year.

    Once again, if Smith plays his reserves, Brian Griese and Kyle Orton will see the majority of the action – without Thomas Jones, Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. Detroit’s pathetic defense may actually have a chance. But if Smith utilizes his starters for no apparent reason, Rex Grossman, Jones and Muhammad will repeat their 34-performance against the Lions in Week 2.

    As you can probably tell by his press conferences, Smith is a stubborn coach. I think he’ll play his backups for the majority of the game. Let’s go Emilio!


    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    The Bears clinched the top seed in the NFC, so I'm not sure how many of their starters will play.

    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 94% (21,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
    • History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.
    • Emotional Win Alert: Teams are 60-84 ATS after an emotional win since 2001; BEARS won in overtime.
    • Opening Line: Bears -4.
    • Opening Total: 42.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: TBA.
    • Sit Em: TBA.

    Prediction: Lions 20, Bears 10. (Lions +5½).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Bears 26, Lions 21.




    Colts (11-3) at Texans (4-10). Line: Colts by 9. Over-Under: 47.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Colts -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Colts -10.

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: Colts: OUT: FB James Mungro (IR), WR Brandon Stokley (IR), TE Dallas Clark, DT Corey Simon (IR), DT Montae Reagor, S Mike Doss (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Joseph Addai*, S Bob Sanders. Texans: OUT: RB Domanick Davis (IR), OT Charles Spencer (IR), OT Zach Wiegert (IR), LB Kailee Wong (PUP), CB DeMarcus Faggins. DOUBTFUL: KR Jerome Mathis (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: TE Owen Daniels*.

    The Colts are back! Their defense is great! They shut down Carson Palmer! This is the year they’re finally going to win it all! My name is Detective Brett Hopper and I’m living this day over and over again.

    Indianapolis didn’t have trouble scoring against Cincinnati, and that’ll be the case this week. The Texans can neither put pressure on the quarterback, nor stop the run or the pass. Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and company will have a field day against a none-playmaker defense.

    The Colts are susceptible to the run, so how are the Texans going to score when their top rusher gains 3.8 yards per carry? Reggie Bush? How are the Texans going to score when their starting quarterback throws interceptions and gets sacked like there’s no tomorrow? Vince Young? How are the Texans going to score when their offensive line won’t be able to block Dwight Freeney or Robert Mathis? D’Brickashaw Ferguson? You get the point.

    This is Houston’s Super Bowl because the team has never been able to defeat the Colts. But does that even matter? I’m not sure the Texans can hang the number even if Indianapolis is unfocused. However, they have been solid bouncing off blowout and back-to-back losses. There’s something positive.


    The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
    The Colts just proved how great they are by destroying Cincinnati. Meanwhile, this game means the world to Houston; the team has never beaten Indianapolis in its existence.

    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 72% (23,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
    • History: Colts have won the only 9 meetings.
    • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 44-29 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Gary Kubiak 2-1).
    • Post-Monday Night Magic: Teams are 24-13 ATS after winning on MNF by 17+ since 1999 (Tony Dungy 2-2).
    • Colts are 22-14 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.
    • Texans are 20-9 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
    • Opening Line: Colts -9.
    • Opening Total: 48.
    • Weather: Retractable Roof.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Colts Defense.
    • Sit Em: Texans Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Colts 31, Texans 24. (Texans +9).
    Correct: Texans 27, Colts 24.




    Patriots (10-4) at Jaguars (8-6). Line: Jaguars by 3. Over-Under: 37.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Jaguars -2½.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Jaguars -1.

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
    Injuries: Patriots: OUT: LB Junior Seau (IR), S Rodney Harrison, S Eugene Wilson, S Mel Mitchell, P Ken Walter. QUESTIONABLE: RB Laurence Maroney*, RB Kevin Faulk, TE Ben Watson*, OT Ryan O'Callaghan, DT Vince Wilfork, S Rodney Harrison. Jaguars: OUT: QB Byron Leftwich, RB Fred Taylor*, RB Greg Jones (IR), DE Reggie Hayward (IR), LB Mike Peterson (IR), S Donovin Darius (IR).

    I was scouring through a Jaguars message board, and I saw that some of the posters wanted to see Quinn Gray at quarterback. Don't these fans realize that Jacksonville defeats everyone it's not supposed to beat, and loses games it shouldn't win? I'd rather have it that way than the complete opposite. By the way, Jack Del Rio should trick his players by giving them a fake schedule, which would look like this: "Week 1: @Colts. Week 2: @Bears. Week 3: @Patriots. Week 4: @'91 Cowboys. Week 5: @'85 Bears. Week 6: @'72 Dolphins..." Since these guys obviously play Madden, they wouldn't know it was a ruse – and they'd easily coast to a 16-0 record.

    Conversely, the Patriots’ M.O. is doing the bare minimum to get by unless they’re coming off a loss. Well, New England doesn’t need this contest as much as Jacksonville. I expect the Patriots to be a little flat against the run, especially if David Garrard attempts to move the chains by himself. New England’s safety concerns will be problematic against Jacksonville’s tall receivers.

    The Jaguars’ stop unit should be able to do a number on New England. Jacksonville is ranked second against opposing ground attacks, so it should be able to stuff Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney in the backfield. That will force Tom Brady to throw the ball into one of the NFL’s top secondaries.

    I talked about Jacksonville needing a victory more than the Patriots. This is also a revenge situation for the former; New England knocked the Jaguars out of the playoffs last year. I look for the more desperate team to win.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    Not only do the Jaguars need this game more than the Patriots; they also have revenge on their mind after losing to New England in the playoffs last year. The Patriots always do the bare minimum; they don't need this contest.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 50% (19,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
    • Patriots are 9-5 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
    • Tom Brady is 78-24 as a starter (62-38 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Jaguars -3.
    • Opening Total: 39.
    • Weather: Possible showers, 73 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Jaguars Defense.
    • Sit Em: Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, RB Fred Taylor.

    Prediction: Jaguars 16, Patriots 10. (Jaguars -3).
    Double Money Pick.
    Incorrect: Patriots 24, Jaguars 21.




    Saints (9-5) at Giants (7-7). Line: Giants by 3. Over-Under: 47½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Giants -1.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Giants -1.

    The Game. Edge: Saints.
    Injuries: Saints: OUT: G Jermaine Mayberry (IR), DT Hollis Thomas (SUSP), LB Tommy Polley (IR), LB James Allen (IR), P Mitch Berger (IR). Giants: OUT: WR Amani Toomer (IR), OT Luke Petitgout, DE Michael Strahan, LB LaVar Arrington (IR).

    A few games ago, I brought up a reference to Daybreak in my lead. Well, those idiots at ABC canceled what happened to be one of my favorite shows. The following was found in a press release: “The sixth episode, entitled ‘What If They Find Him,’ attracted only 3.1 million viewers. As a result, ABC has yanked the drama effective immediately.” Only 3.1 million viewers!? Only!? What were they expecting, 234 trillion viewers? I’m telling you, save for Lost, I’m never watching ABC again. Never! We need Sterling Sharpe to storm ABC headquarters and start cracking some skulls.

    Speaking of cracking skulls, Giants fans must be doing that to themselves after watching their season fall apart. After beating the Cowboys on Oct. 23, they barely got by the Buccaneers and Texans, lost to the Bears, Jaguars, Titans and Cowboys, beat up on a Panthers squad that has quit, and lost to the Jeff Garcia-led Eagles. One problem for New York has been its injury situation. There are far too many holes on defense, all of which Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn and Marques Colston will exploit. The Saints just have way too many playmakers. Think about it this way: If Garcia can lead Philadelphia to 36 points, imagine what Brees will be able to do.

    Injuries have extended to the Giants’ offense, as left tackle Luke Petitgout, center Shaun O’Hara and receiver Amani Toomer have all missed significant time. Not helping matters is the fact that Plaxico Burress plays effortlessly on every other drive. Oh yeah, Eli Manning is in a tailspin. That said, the Giants should be able to score a fair amount of points; Tiki Barber will be able to trample the league’s 30th-ranked run defense.

    Don’t be fooled by the Saints’ loss to Washington. They were off an emotional high after beating Dallas, and were looking forward to this contest. If I’m right, a focused New Orleans squad, that actually plays better on the road, will storm into the Meadowlands and win.


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    The Saints clinched their division, so they're guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. The Giants aren't. It's clear who needs this more.

    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 69% (21,500)

    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
    • Two Homes (Loss): Tom Coughlin is 1-4 ATS at home after a home loss.
    • Saints are 34-21 ATS on the road since 2000.
    • Saints are 22-14 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Giants -3.
    • Opening Total: 47½.
    • Weather: Sunny, 53 degrees. Mild wind: 18 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Marques Colston, Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Saints 24, Giants 21. (Saints +3).
    Correct: Saints 30, Giants 7.




    Ravens (11-3) at Steelers (7-7). Line: Steelers by 3½. Over-Under: 36½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Ravens -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Ravens -3.

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    Injuries: Ravens: OUT: G Edwin Mulitalo (IR), PR B.J. Sams. QUESTIONABLE: WR Derrick Mason*, WR Mark Clayton, TE Todd Heap*, OT Jonathan Ogden, S Gerome Sapp. Steelers: OUT: OT Max Starks, S Ryan Clark.

    I just brought up Sterling Sharpe in my previous lead. Please read it so you become aware of my hatred for ABC. Anyway, I posted two look-alike photos last week. In case you missed them, here they are: Eric Mangini’s Twin and Tony Kornheiser’s Twin. Well, I made a new one. Here it is: Click Here.

    Ever since the Steelers lost to the Ravens on Nov. 26, 27-0, they’ve turned things around. They’ve surrendered only 13 points the past three weeks, beating their opponents by an average of 17.7 points. But perception is not reality in this case; looking closely, Pittsburgh managed to beat up on Bruce Gradkowski (who was on the road), Derek Anderson (also on the road) and Chris “Even if I Pay My Opponent $5 Million I Still Won’t Win” Weinke. So, the Steelers’ renaissance could be a bit of a mirage. In that Nov. 26 contest, Baltimore dominated the line of scrimmage; they completely shut down Willie Parker, while putting immense pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh also failed to register a single sack.

    I have a feeling history will repeat itself. Baltimore is just stronger in the trenches, so expect the Ravens to periodically score, while forcing Roethlisberger to go into that deer-in-the-headlights look that he maintained last time.

    I wrote an obituary for the Steelers after their loss to Baltimore for the Centre Daily Times. They were apparently buried alive, as they won three in a row. However, I think their time is up, and they will finally be laid to rest on Christmas Eve, 2006.


    The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
    The Ravens are in the playoffs. The Steelers think they're going to be in the playoffs. They have a shot at 9-7, but they have to get to 9-7 first.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 51% (19,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
    • History: Home Team has won the last 8 meetings.
    • Ravens are 37-9 SU; 29-17 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2000 (24-38 SU vs. non-losing).
    • Ravens are 8-15 ATS as an underdog the previous 23 instances.
    • Steelers are 14-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Bill Cowher is 12-2 ATS in his final home game of the season.
    • Ben Roethlisberger is 33-10 as a starter (27-16 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Steelers -3½.
    • Opening Total: 37½.
    • Weather: Sunny, 45 degrees. Mild wind: 12 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, Ravens Defense.
    • Sit Em: Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Steelers Defense.

    Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 3. (Ravens +3½).
    Correct: Ravens 31, Steelers 7.




    Redskins (5-9) at Rams (6-8). Line: Rams by 2. Over-Under: 43½.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Rams -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Rams -3.

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.
    Injuries: Redskins: OUT: RB Clinton Portis. DOUBTFUL: LB Marcus Washington. Rams: OUT: OT Orlando Pace (IR), G Claude Terrell (IR), C Andy McCollum (IR), LB Pisa Tinoisamoa. QUESTIONABLE: G Adam Timmerman.

    I heard an official say something bizarre on Sunday. It went something like this: “There were two fouls on the play: Holding on offense. Personal foul – blow to the head on the defense. Those penalties offset. Replay first down.” What? How can those two things offset? The NFL needs to change this. Imagine if Judge Judy had a case where one party littered on the second party’s lawn, so the latter retaliated by cracking the other person’s skull. Would Judge Judy either give them the same fine, or nullify the whole thing? I don’t think so.

    I have to say that I was really impressed with Jason Campbell and Ladell Bets last week. Campbell looked confident and threw the ball with precision, while Betts had another great performance. In fact, this may sound crazy, but Betts seems like a better running back than Clinton Portis. Betts should have an easy time navigating through one of the more pathetic stop units in the NFL. That will give Campbell all the time he needs to find Santana Moss and Chris Cooley downfield.

    St. Louis’ offensive line has done a great impression of Houston’s front five, as it has surrendered 48 sacks this year. Good thing for them that they’re playing Washington; the Redskins only have 17 sacks. Washington also has a porous run defense, so expect Steven Jackson to eclipse the century mark.

    You have one team that seems to have quit. The other is playing hard for one of the best coaches in NFL history. I’m sure you can figure out which is which.


    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    If the Rams win out, they have a chance to qualify for the postseason. Unbelievable.

    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
  • Percentage of money on St. Louis: 64% (16,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 69-55 ATS on the road following a road win.
    • Weak Arm: Jason Campbell is 1-0 ATS on the road.
    • Redskins are 3-10 ATS after a road win since 2000.
    • Opening Line: Rams -3.
    • Opening Total: 45.
    • Weather: Dome.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Ladell Betts, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Rams Offense.
    • Sit Em: Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Redskins 23, Rams 20. (Redskins +3).
    Incorrect: Rams 37, Redskins 31.




    Cardinals (4-10) at 49ers (6-8). Line: 49ers by 4. Over-Under: 45.
    Sunday, 4:05 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): 49ers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): 49ers -5.

    The Game. Edge: 49ers.
    Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: DE Bert Berry (IR). QUESTIONABLE: LB Gerald Hayes. 49ers: OUT: C Jeremy Newberry (IR), DT Anthony Adams, LB Derek Smith. QUESTIONABLE: TE Eric Johnson, OT Adam Snyder.

    If you’ve been reading this site, you know I have a 100:1 shot on the 49ers to win the division, and when things looked bleak I wrote something like, “I’m living in an unforgiving world. For the price of a movie ticket, you can make sure I never go hungry again.” Has anyone seen Al Bundy do one of these commercials that have to do with videos? It’s so weird – I could never imagine Bundy doing a serious ad. I thought he was going to make fun of his Kelly’s none-IQ brain, his wife’s none-chore typical day, his neighbor’s none-cup chest, his none-dollar job or his son’s none-woman bed. I told you, I’m really glad John Madden introduced this term.

    After playing well against Seattle, Matt Leinart took a step back against the Broncos, throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice. Luckily for him, he’ll be battling a non-existent pass rush and a secondary that surrenders yardage like there’s no tomorrow. The 49ers are also statistically porous when it comes to opposing ground attacks, but they were able to put the clamps on Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander on Thursday night. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin present a different challenge, however. The two wide outs combined for 13 catches and 195 yards against San Francisco in Week 1.

    One of the things Arizona is renowned for is its horrendous defense. Jay Cutler, starting just his third NFL game, absolutely shredded the team’s secondary, compiling 261 yards and two touchdowns. That doesn’t bode too well for the Cardinals, given that Alex Smith had his coming-out party in the second half of the Seahawks game. Smith won’t be the only 49er who’s successful; Frank Gore should be able to trample Arizona’s weak front seven.

    Here’s a cool new trend: Each team that has played in these NFL Network Thursday night affairs has covered the following week. Every single squad. That seems like a good proposition, given that the 49ers need a victory a lot more than the Cardinals.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    For monetary purposes, I'm hoping the 49ers win the NFC West. If they win out, and the Seahawks lose to the Chargers and Buccaneers, they will claim the division title.

    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 67% (12,000)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • History: Cardinals have won the last 3 meetings.
    • Weak Arm: Matt Leinart is 2-2 ATS on the road.
    • Opening Line: 49ers -3½.
    • Opening Total: 45½.
    • Weather: Showers, 58 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Matt Leinart, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Antonio Bryant, Vernon Davis.
    • Sit Em: Edgerrin James.

    Prediction: 49ers 20, Cardinals 13. (49ers -4).
    Incorrect: Cardinals 26, 49ers 20.




    Bengals (8-6) at Broncos (8-6). Line: Broncos by 3. Over-Under: 44.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET
    Walter's Game of the Week

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Bengals -2.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Broncos -3.

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.
    Injuries: Bengals: OUT: RB Chris Perry (PUP), G Bobbie Williams, LB David Pollack (IR), LB Odell Thurman (SUSP), CB Rashad Bauman (IR). DOUBTFUL: C Rich Braham. QUESTIONABLE: OT Levi Jones. Broncos: OUT: OT Matt Lepsis (IR), DE Courtney Brown (IR). QUESTIONABLE: LB Al Wilson.

    Two weeks ago, Jay Cutler’s dad looked like he wanted to don a paper bag and walk out of Mile High II in shame. Last week, he had the look of a contestant on Deal or No Deal who opens a high-money suitcase and predictably shouts, “It’s OK, it’s OK!” This week, Cutler’s dad is undoubtedly spending all of his son’s cash to create an foundation called "Ashamed Fathers of NFL Bust Quarterbacks" in an attempt to help out those less fortunate. Candidates for Vice President were Mr. Leaf and Mr. Couch, but the former has been institutionalized, while the latter is rumored to have joined Osama bin Laden’s quest for world domination. Mr. Carr, meanwhile, was found at the edge of a skyscraper. No one was hurt.

    If you didn’t see Cutler last week, you can probably surmise that he played well from that opening paragraph. Cutler threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns, which included a 54-yard bomb to Javon Walker. However, that was against the Cardinals. Cincinnati struggled on Monday night, but you can’t compare Cutler and Peyton Manning, at least not at this point of the rookie’s career. The Bengals, 11th versus the run, will put the clamps on Tatum and Mike Bell, forcing Cutler to beat their opportunistic secondary. I don’t like the sound of that.

    Denver’s defense was considered one of the league’s best at the start of the season, but I guess that’s what happens when a team clobbers Baltimore, Oakland, Cleveland and a Trent Green-less Kansas City squad. When they’ve taken on high-octane offenses, the Broncos have struggled. Cincinnati made a grave mistake by running the ball too much last week. I expect Marvin Lewis to rectify that error, permitting Carson Palmer to air it out as much as possible. Thanks to just 29 sacks, Denver is yielding 218 passing yards per contest this year, which is astonishing when you consider that it has Champ Bailey on one side of the field.

    This is my Game of the Week because the winner essentially locks up a playoff spot, while the loser is all but done. The Bengals are the team with the better quarterback, so I think they’ll get the job done. It’ll be tight though.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    It's do-or-die for both squads. The winner essentially locks up a playoff spot. The loser will be tied with a bunch of 8-7 teams.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 60% (15,000)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
    • Two Roads (Loss): Current head coaches are 83-57 ATS on the road following a road loss.
    • Broncos are 9-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.
    • Broncos are 14-7 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 21 instances.
    • Broncos are 27-37 ATS vs. opponents coming off a loss under Mike Shanahan.
    • Opening Line: Broncos -3.
    • Opening Total: 45.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 42 degrees. Mild wind: 12 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Rod Smith, Javon Walker.
    • Sit Em: Rudi Johnson, Tatum Bell, Mike Bell.

    Prediction: Bengals 27, Broncos 20. (Bengals +3).
    Correct: Broncos 24, Bengals 23.




    Chargers (12-2) at Seahawks (8-6). Line: Chargers by 4½. Over-Under: 46½.
    Sunday, 4:15 ET

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Chargers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Chargers -3.

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    Injuries: Chargers: OUT: WR Malcolm Floyd, OT Roman Oben (PUP), LB Steve Foley, KR Darren Sproles (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Eric Parker*, DE Luis Castillo, LB Randall Godfrey. Seahawks: OUT: C Robbie Tobeck, DT Marcus Tubbs, S Mike Green (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Darrell Jackson. QUESTIONABLE: G Pork Chop Womack, DT Rocky Bernard.

    In case you missed it, here’s what I thought of that whole blocked punt fiasco in the Chiefs-Chargers game: “This rule affected the result of a Browns-Steelers contest in 2002, and for some reason, it went unchanged. If you think about it, it’s like a fumble; if a team goes for it on fourth down, doesn’t LOSE possession (i.e. Kansas City never established control), but gets it back, the drive is still over – unless they got past the first-down marker. Thus, this rule should be changed to the first-down marker; not the line of scrimmage. If the NFL doesn’t adjust this rule, everyone in the competition committee should be fired.” I’ll never get over this! I’m losing it Jerry!

    LaDainian Tomlinson 85-yard touchdown the ensuing play was phenomenal, and completely epitomized the season he’s having. Tomlinson has an outside shot at 2,000 yards; he needs 187 yards per game to get there. Playing the Seahawks should help, given that they are 27th against opposing ground attacks, which is a huge drop-off from last year’s statistic. Tomlinson should be able to open up play-action opportunities for Philip Rivers, who seems to be going through a rookie slump. Fortunately for him, Matt Leinart and Alex Smith both played well against Seattle the past two weeks.

    While Tomlinson could approach 200 yards, Shaun Alexander will struggle to get to half that total. Alexander, who is averaging a meager 3.4 yards per carry, will be asked to find running lanes against a pretty stout front seven. Confronted with unfavorable long-yardage downs, Matt Hasselbeck will continue to be iffy; he hasn’t been the same since returning from injury.

    I can’t believe the Seahawks are a home dog. The last time they were in this position? You have to go back to 2002 when A.J. Feeley and the Eagles stormed into Seattle and won, 27-20. I love home underdogs, and I love going against the public, so I’m going with the Seadogs.


    The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.
    This game means more to the Seahawks, but the Chargers are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

    The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 88% (18,500)

    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
    • Chargers are 18-8 ATS vs. opponents coming off a loss under Marty Schottenheimer.
    • Philip Rivers is 12-2 as a starter (9-5 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Chargers -4.
    • Opening Total: 47.
    • Weather: Showers, 45 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates.
    • Sit Em: Shaun Alexander.

    Prediction: Chargers 20, Seahawks 17. (Seahawks +4½).
    Money Pick.
    Correct: Chargers 20, Seahawks 17.




    Eagles (8-6) at Cowboys (9-5). Line: Cowboys by 7. Over-Under: 47.
    Monday, 5:00 ET
    MERRY CHRISTMAS

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Cowboys -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Cowboys -6.

    The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
    Injuries: Eagles: OUT: QB Donovan McNabb (IR), DE Jevon Kearse (IR), LS Mike Bartrum. DOUBTFUL: CB William Peterson-James. QUESTIONABLE: QUESTIONABLE: LB Shawn Barber, S Michael Lewis. Cowboys: OUT: LB Greg Ellis, S Marcus Coleman (CUT), KR Tyson Thompson (IR). QUESTIONABLE: CB Jacques Reeves.

    Here’s my weekly preview of a potential conversation on Monday Night Football (I know ESPN is doing the Jets-Dolphins game, but I have something else to say about that): Tirico: Thanks for rejoining us. In the booth we have Matthew McConaughey. Matt, you look like you’ve had about 24 beers. What are you up to? McConaughey: I like football. Kornheiser: Matthew McConaughey’s a star! A star!!!!! Theismann: So, Matt, buddy, friend, good ole pal, tell us why you liked doing We Are Marshall. McConaughey: Well, I liked the script, and the movie was based on fact. Theismann: Why don’t you tell us after this next play, OK? Mcconaughey: But… I just did tell you…? Theismann’s Inner Thoughts: Oh boy, oh boy, Joe, you finally found a guest you can relate to. He’s not giving you any evil stares like Jay-Z. He’s not making fun of you like Jimmy Kimmel. He’s perfect! Should I ask him out? Calm down, Joe, calm down. Breathe in. Breathe out.

    Think back to the first meeting between these two squads. The Eagles barely won despite having all of the emotion on their side in front of a home crowd. Plus, Drew Bledsoe was starting for Dallas. Philadelphia was able to tee off on the statuesque quarterback, sacking him seven times. Why do I have the feeling that history won’t repeat itself? Tony Romo will exploit the Philadelphia’s volatile secondary, while the combination of Julius Jones and Marion Barber III will gash the Eagles’ porous run defense. I’ll be shocked if Dallas punts more than three times.

    Jeff Garcia has been a pleasant surprise. In fact, it’s hard to believe that every single fan was booing him three weeks ago. But the team has rallied around him, and he has become a local hero. Philadelphia will be able to score; running the ball will be difficult, but both Drew Brees and Michael Vick proved that the Cowboys’ secondary can be exposed; there isn’t enough depth to cover all of the weapons in Andy Reid’s arsenal.

    No result would surprise me. I could see the Eagles winning, and I could see them losing by double digits. So, I’m going to fade the public, and stick with the team profiles; Reid usually does poorly as an underdog, while Bill Parcells often covers as a favorite.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    This is for the division. Both teams will bring 100 percent.

    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 56% (105,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
    • History: Eagles have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.
    • Divisional Dog of Seven: Current coaches are 44-29 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+ since 2002 (Andy Reid 1-2).
    • Third Road Alert: Teams in their third-consecutive road game are 10-14 ATS since 2000.
    • MNF Home Advantage: Monday Night Football home teams are 10-6 ATS this year.
    • Eagles are 39-21 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
    • Eagles are 18-9 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
    • Cowboys are 20-10 ATS as a favorite under Bill Parcells.
    • Tony Romo is 6-2 as a starter (5-2 ATS).
    • Opening Line: Cowboys -6½.
    • Opening Total: 47.
    • Weather: Partly cloudy, 50 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook, Donte' Stallworth, Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith.
    • Sit Em: Correll Buckhalter, Both Defenses.

    Prediction: Cowboys 24, Eagles 14. (Cowboys -7).
    Incorrect: Eagles 23, Cowboys 7.




    Jets (8-6) at Dolphins (6-8). Line: Dolphins by 2½. Over-Under: 37.
    Monday, 8:30 ET
    MERRY CHRISTMAS

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 15 Games): Dolphins -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 15 Games): Dolphins -2.

    The Game. Edge: Jets.
    Injuries: Jets: OUT: RB Curtis Martin (PUP). QUESTIONABLE: RB Cedric Houston, FB B.J. Askew, WR Laveranues Coles*, CB David Barrett, S Eric Smith. Dolphins: OUT: G Seth McKinney (IR), G Bennie Anderson (IR), CB Will Poole (IR). DOUBTFUL: WR Marty Booker*. QUESTIONABLE: RB Ronnie Brown*, CB Will Allen.

    Think the Dolphins don't want to play this game? It's Christmas and they have to play a meaningless contest against a rival that will be trying its hardest to get into the playoffs. To top it off, their starting quarterback just threw for 20 yards against the Bills, which may force their coach to go with some guy named Cleo Lemon. Cleo friggin Lemon!

    After visiting the Miami Herald’s Web site, it’s clear that Nick Saban will continue to ride the Joey Harrington ghost train despite the quarterback’s inhumanly possible zero rating. Whatever. The Jets have shown some susceptibility to the pass, but that doesn’t really matter because Harrington is a none-talent signal caller (thanks again, Madden). New York is also ranked near the bottom versus opposing ground attacks, but with Ronnie Brown banged up, the Dolphins don’t pose much of a threat.

    Conversely, Chad Pennington is coming off an outstanding performance, throwing for more than 330 yards. Miami’s secondary has had problems against J.P. Losman and David Garrard recently, and Pennington happens to be a better passer than both of them. The Dolphins can get to the quarterback, but they registered only two sacks against the Jets in their Oct. 15 meeting. Pennington gets rid of the ball far too quickly for Jason Taylor and company to have much of an effect.

    This is a situation where I’m actually going with the public. How can you not ride the Jets? They’re actually playing for something, and they dominate the Dolphins, who don’t even want to be here.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
    The Jets need a win to get a step closer to the playoffs. The Dolphins have been eliminated. Why does Miami want to play a meaningless game on Christmas? I know -- they don't.

    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
    The Jets would love to qualify for the playoffs. The Dolphins would love to keep them out.
  • Percentage of money on NY Jets: 63% (85,000)

    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
    • History: Jets have won 13 of the last 17 meetings.
    • MNF Home Advantage: Monday Night Football home teams are 10-6 ATS this year.
    • Two Roads (Win): Current head coaches are 69-55 ATS on the road following a road win.
    • Jets are 12-20-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 34 instances (5-3 in 2006).
    • Opening Line: Dolphins -3.
    • Opening Total: 36½.
    • Weather: Possible storms, 65 degrees. Light wind.

    Fantasy Spin
    • Start Em: Chad Pennington, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Jets Defense.
    • Sit Em: Dolphins Offense and Defense.

    Prediction: Jets 31, Dolphins 7. (Jets +2½).
    Correct: Jets 13, Dolphins 10.


    Second-Half Bets
    The past few weeks, I've done really well with second-half bets, something like 7-1 or 8-1. I'm going to post my second-half bets here. Check back at halftime to see if I have any plays posted.


  • Texans +10 Correct
  • Buccaneers +3 Correct
  • Ravens +4 (Money Pick) Correct
  • Redskins +3 Incorrect
  • Saints +3 Correct
    Sorry, I didn't see anything I liked in the later games. Check back tomorrow for potential plays on Phi/Dal and Nyj/Mia.

    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed.


    Cowboys: 10-3
    Eagles: 8-6
    Giants: 9-4
    Redskins: 9-4

    Bears: 7-7
    Lions: 9-5
    Packers: 10-3
    Vikings: 6-8

    Buccaneers: 5-8
    Falcons: 7-7
    Panthers: 7-5
    Saints: 6-8

    49ers: 9-5
    Cardinals: 4-10
    Rams: 7-6
    Seahawks: 8-6

    Bills: 9-5
    Dolphins: 9-4
    Jets: 8-6
    Patriots: 9-4

    Bengals: 6-7
    Browns: 7-5
    Ravens: 5-9
    Steelers: 7-7

    Colts: 7-6
    Jaguars: 9-4
    Texans: 11-3
    Titans: 8-5

    Broncos: 3-10
    Chargers: 8-6
    Chiefs: 6-8
    Raiders: 5-8

    Divisional Games: 45-37
    Game Edge: 32-43
    Psychological Edge: 21-18
    Vegas Edge: 13-8
    Trend Edge: 20-22
    Double Edge: 16-13
    Triple Edge: 0-2
    Quadruple Edge: 0-0


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    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.


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    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,103-1,926-116, 52.2% (+$12,560)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 676-609-31 (52.6%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 282-243-11 (53.7%)
    Career Over-Under: 1,630-1,606-48 (50.4%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-16 (65.2%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 4-6
    Bears: 5-5
    Bucs: 8-2
    49ers: 3-6
    Eagles: 6-4
    Lions: 3-6
    Falcons: 5-5
    Cardinals: 5-5
    Giants: 3-7
    Packers: 7-2
    Panthers: 5-6
    Rams: 5-5
    Redskins: 7-3
    Vikings: 8-2
    Saints: 4-5
    Seahawks: 4-6
    Bills: 4-6
    Bengals: 4-7
    Colts: 5-5
    Broncos: 6-4
    Dolphins: 6-3
    Browns: 5-3
    Jaguars: 5-5
    Chargers: 3-7
    Jets: 6-4
    Ravens: 4-5
    Texans: 5-5
    Chiefs: 7-2
    Patriots: 5-5
    Steelers: 6-5
    Titans: 5-3
    Raiders: 3-7
    Divisional: 21-22 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 12-18 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-28 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 22-12 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 6-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVII NFL Pick
    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2013 Season:
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    Super Bowl XLVIII NFL Pick 2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2014 Season:
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