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NFL Picks Against the Spread
Week 5, 2008



NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Vegas betting action updated Oct. 6, 3:40 p.m. ET.


Go to Free NFL Picks - Late Games



Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-1)
Line: Panthers by 9.5. Total: 38.5.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Panthers -10.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Panthers -10.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle. QUESTIONABLE: OT Branden Albert. Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR). DOUBTFUL: OT Jordan Gross.

At 6-5 going into the Sunday night game, I was hoping for a winning week. Unfortunately, Andy Reid's horrendous play-calling and the Steelers' defense somehow allowing a shellshocked Joe Flacco to score a touchdown in the fourth quarter prevented that. On the bright side, I hit the only game I truly loved - a 5-unit play on Houston +7 over Jacksonville. There seem to be more favorable matchups this week, so hopefully I'll be 8-6 at the very worst.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I have the Chiefs as one of my underrated teams in the home page of my Week 5 NFL Picks home page for a reason. In the two games Tyler Thigpen hasn't played, Kansas City is 2-0 against the spread. Thigpen's not a functional NFL quarterback, so he should be kept away from the field at all costs - even if that means locking him up in a Level 5 detention cell at the Company's headquarters. Thigpen's special powers are sucking royally at football.

Huard doesn't suck. He's not great by any means, but he can take care of the football and convert third downs as long as he has a potent running game by his side. Considering the Panthers are ranked 20th against the run, allowing 4.3 yards per carry, Huard should be able to benefit from another 100-yard performance from Larry Johnson.

Carolina must pressure Huard and force a few punts. Considering the Panthers have only seven sacks on the year, it's amazing that they're ranked third versus the pass. Carolina could be catching a break, as left tackle Branden Albert is questionable. Kansas City's pass protection will be much worse than it already is if Albert is out of the lineup.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Pretty much the same gameplan for the Panthers, only with superior personnel. They'll be able to run all over the Chiefs' 31st-ranked run defense, setting up play-action for Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad. Kansas City can't generate a pass rush and its secondary is young, which would explain why the team is 19th against aerial attacks. Theoretically, Delhomme should be able to go over 300 yards if he needs to.

However, the Panthers have a few chinks in their armor. Delhomme is banged up with an injured quad. He'll play, but I'm not sure if he'll be 100 percent. Meanwhile, like Delhomme, right tackle Jeff Otah is dinged up with an ankle injury. He won't miss this contest, but he could be a liability. Also, left tackle Jordan Gross is likely out with a concussion.

RECAP: The wounded Panthers might not be focused for this game. They could be focused for their matchups against the hated Buccaneers and Saints the next two weeks.

Meanwhile, as I previously mentioned, the Chiefs are really underrated as long as Huard - not Thigpen - is under center.

Herm Edwards has yet to fail to cover as a double-digit underdog as Kansas City's head coach. This line is 9.5, so that's close enough. Remember, the Chiefs were also +9.5 against the Broncos last week. Conservative Herm should be able to lead Kansas City to a cover - which is something Carolina seldom does as a big home favorite.

THURSDAY UPDATE: Branden Albert has been ruled out for the Chiefs, so I'm decreasing the units from five to four.

SURVIVOR PICK: Check out my Falcons-Packers breakdown for more on this. I like the Panthers if you're still playing in a league (assuming you don't have the Cowboys and Giants available).


The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
Huge Breather Alert for the Panthers. After this contest against the hapless Chiefs, they play their two greatest rivals, the Buccaneers and the Saints.


The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
Equal action, but the line is dropping in Kansas City's favor.
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 68% (156,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Hello, Good Bye II: Underdogs of 6.5 or more are 19-12 ATS going into their bye.
  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Herm Edwards. ???
  • Chiefs are 7-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.
  • Panthers are 11-20 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.
  • Panthers are 5-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006.
  • Panthers are 16-25 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Jake Delhomme is 10-18 ATS as a home favorite.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -10.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Chiefs 20
    Chiefs +9.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Over 38.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Survivor Pick (3-1)
    Panthers 34, Chiefs 0



    Tennessee Titans (4-0) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
    Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 33.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Titans -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Titans -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Titans.
    Injuries: Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), RB P.J. Daniels (IR), TE Quinn "Miracle Man" Sypniewski (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB Samari Rolle. QUESTIONABLE: RB Willis McGahee, DT Kelly Gregg.

    Each week, I like to take a look at how Vegas fared.

    Favorites went 7-6 against the spread, but that doesn't mean that the public prevailed. The books won big on Sunday night, as the Bears defeated the heavily backed Eagles. I said in that preview that Vegas either really screwed up with a poor line, or the game could possibly be rigged. Somehow, the sportsbooks knew that Andy Reid would call one of the worst four-play sequences this year. At any rate, the house won with Houston, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Washington and Chicago. The public won with Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego, Buffalo and Tennessee. That's a 6-5 record for Vegas with the benefit of the 10-percent juice. Also keep in mind that tons of teasers were ruined with the Cowboys and Broncos both losing.

    At least my Chargers-Steelers teaser didn't lose, though it looked like it was in danger for a while. Joe Flacco did a phenomenal job converting third downs playing in a hostile environment for the first time in his NFL career. I doubt he's ready to lead Baltimore to the playoffs just yet, but that certainly looks like a possibility in the near future.

    At any rate, I'm going to look at both offenses at the same time, given how similar these teams are.

    BOTH OFFENSES: The Ravens and Titans surrender less than four yards per carry. The two squads are ranked first and second in terms of pass defense. Baltimore has nine sacks in three games, while Tennessee has 15 in four. Both teams do a great job in pass protection, though the Titans have an edge here; while the Ravens have allowed six sacks in three contests, the Titans have yielded only two in four.

    The winner of this game will be the team with the least amount of turnovers and the greater amount of third-down conversions. With that in mind, I have to go Kerry Collins over Flacco. Each quarterback has played three games. Collins has thrown only one interception and fumbled twice. Flacco, meanwhile, has two picks and three fumbles. We've already established that Collins will enjoy slightly better pass protection than Flacco, so this makes the quarterbacking edge stronger.

    If you're backing Tennessee, you have to like that the Titans will have the best offensive play-maker on the field in Chris Johnson. Despite battling the Vikings, Johnson managed to run for 61 yards on 17 carries. His rushing average on the year is 5.0, and he's such a dynamic threat out of the backfield.

    RECAP: The only off-paper edge I can find is that the public is backing the Titans. That said, I think a line of -3 is fair, and as of Tuesday afternoon, 81 percent of the action is on the visitor. That's really not as much as some other teams are receiving this week.

    I'm going with the visitor. With two exceptional defenses going head to head, I feel that siding with the safer, more experienced quarterback is the right move.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Titans are at least two up on everyone in the division, so they don't really need to win this game - though they'll be up to the challenge of beating Baltimore's tough defense. They have a bye next week, so they'll be focused.


    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    With the money coming in on the Titans, this line has moved off a key number. That should tell you that Baltimore's the right side.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 71% (199,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Ravens are 12-19 ATS as an underdog the previous 31 instances (2-0 with John Harbaugh).
  • Opening Line: Titans -3.
  • Opening Total: 35.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 67 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Titans 24, Ravens 13
    Titans -2.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 33.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Titans 13, Ravens 10



    Chicago Bears (2-2) at Detroit Lions (0-3)
    Line: Bears by 3.5. Total: 45.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Bears -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Bears -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Bears.
    Injuries: Bears: OUT: OT Chris Williams, Brandon McGowan (IR). Lions: OUT: CB Stanley Wilson (IR).

    Some College Football Week 5 Notes:

    1) Good job losing to Oregon State, USC. That result proved how pedestrian a coach Pete Carroll is. He's an awesome recruiter, but he couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag. He was awful in the NFL. He botched the national championship against Texas a few years ago. And he always loses to Pac-10 cupcakes.

    2) Urban Meyer was even worse. It's tough to win road games, especially on weeknights, so that's one excuse the Trojans have. The Gators have no excuses. You can't let a 24-point underdog to walk into the swamp and come away with a victory. The crowd was silent, but what was up with the play-calling? Going deep on first and second downs, and running on third-and-10? Meyer made Andy Reid look like a genius. (Check the NFL Power Rankings to see why Reid sucked against the Bears.)

    3) Speaking of crappy coaches, Dave "The Stache" Wannstedt nearly lost to Syracuse. As Al Bundy used to say on Married with Children, if you lose to the Rams, you're kicked out of the NFL. Well, if you lose to Syracuse, you should be kicked out of Division 1-A. I see no reason why the NCAA shouldn't adopt this rule immediately.

    Maybe we can get Al Bundy's rule adopted for the Lions as well. They're 0-3 against the spread, and they haven't been competitive in any game they've played this year, which includes their Week 1 blowout loss to the Falcons.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: Perhaps Rod Marinelli's goal should be trying to avoid losing by three scores by halftime. Detroit has trailed 21-0, 21-0 and 21-3 in each of its games. Pretty pathetic.

    The Lions always fall behind early because they spend way too much energy trying to establish a running game that simply doesn't work. You can't run the ball when your offensive line is garbage, and your backs are comprised of the unproven (Kevin Smith) and the horrific (Rudi Johnson). The Lions consequently fall into third-and-long situations, which means Sack City for the opposing defense. Detroit has already surrendered 12 sacks in three contests.

    By the end of this game, that total could stand at 17 or even 20. If the Lions couldn't run against the Packers (ranked 30th against the run), Falcons (23rd) and 49ers (18th), how the heck are they going to get anything on the ground versus Chicago's ninth-ranked ground defense? It'll be like deja vu all over again; with Jon Kitna backed into obvious passing downs, the Bears will feast on the poor quarterback.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: I'm in the mood for a laugh, so let's look at Detroit's defensive statistics. Run defense: 32nd. Pass defense: 32nd. Sacks: Three! And two of the three quarterbacks they've played are Matt Ryan and J.T. O'Sullivan! Well, at least owner William Clay Ford cares enough that he fired the crappy general manager who assembled this stop unit a long time ago.

    It's really laughable, and it's a shame. The people of Detroit deserve better. Instead, they'll watch Matt Forte possibly eclipse 200 rushing yards, setting up play-action opportunities for Kyle Orton, who won't have any pressure in his face.

    RECAP: The only chance the Lions have of winning this game is if the Bears are unfocused after a tough victory against the Eagles on Sunday night. This is a tough spot for them. That's the only reason I'm not laying more than one unit on Chicago.

    Let's look at the Vegas implications for a second. The public's predictably pounding Chicago. In response, Vegas made a rare move and shifted the spread off the very key number of three. That's huge. The books have tipped their hand, and it looks like they really want more people to bet on the Lions.


    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    With the Matt Millen firing, there could be a sense of urgency in Detroit. Jobs are on the line. The Bears are coming off a tough victory on National TV, so this could be a Letdown Alert.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Casual bettors are pounding the Bears. Here's a good sign for them - the line has moved off a key number of -3 to -3.5. Vegas is pleading for more action on Detroit.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 81% (177,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Bye Bye: Rod Marinelli is 0-2 ATS off a bye.
  • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 12 meetings.
  • History: Bears have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • History: Seven of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.
  • Bears are 2-6 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bears -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Lions 10
    Bears -3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 45.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Bears 34, Lions 7





    Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)
    Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 40.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Packers -8.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Packers -4 (Flynn) or Packers -8.5 (Rodgers).
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Packers.
    Injuries: Falcons: OUT: CB Von Hutchins (IR). Packers: OUT: G Junius Coston (IR), DT Justin Harrell, CB Al Harris. QUESTIONABLE: QB Aaron Rodgers*.

    My apologies to those who followed my Cowboys survivor pick. I stated that picking a team last week was like walking through a minefield. There just weren't any obvious choices. But anyway, there are only 12 people remaining in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I'll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

    If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a very hot picture of Claire. Wowwa weewa!

    I'm writing this on Friday morning, and we still don't know who Green Bay's starting quarterback is. It could be a game-time decision, though some announcement could come on Friday afternoon once the coaching staff sees how Aaron Rodgers looks in practice.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: With that in mind, let's take a look at how the Packers' scoring unit will fare in both situations.

    If Rodgers is cleared to play, Atlanta's defense doesn't stand a chance of stopping Green Bay. The Falcons are ranked 23rd against the run, so expect a big game from Ryan Grant. I know Grant has been struggling recently, but his hamstring is now 100 percent. He just needs a good matchup to get going. With Grant destined to reach 100 yards, Rodgers will enjoy torching Atlanta's solid secondary with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

    If Rodgers sits and Matt Flynn starts, the Falcons will put eight men in the box and focus their attention on Grant. They'll dare Flynn to beat them. We still have no proof that Flynn can be a functional NFL quarterback, so Green Bay's offense will struggle to move the chains all afternoon, especially with John Abraham breathing down the rookie signal caller's neck on multiple occasions.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: This should be a bit easier. Michael Turner has thrived at home and struggled on the road, but there's a reason for this. As a host, Turner has burnt the Chiefs and Lions, the two worst rush defenses in the NFL. Well, Green Bay is ranked 30th in this department.

    With Turner turning his road luck around, Matt Ryan will have an easier time to locate Roddy White downfield. Ryan hasn't had much luck as a visitor yet, but in those two losses, he didn't have Turner at full strength. He will in this contest.

    RECAP: That said, I still don't completely trust Ryan on the road. He lost both of his visiting games by a score of 24-9. Against Tampa Bay, he began the game 0-of-9 with two interceptions. Last week, a pick-six of his was nullified by an unjust roughing-the-passer penalty in the first quarter.

    If Rodgers starts, Green Bay will run away with this game. If it's Flynn, I like the Packers to cover a much shorter number, as everyone on the team will know that they need to bring 110 percent to claim their third victory of the year.

    By the way, the fact that Vegas opened this line at -7 tells me that they're somewhat confident Rodgers will play.

    SURVIVOR PICK: If you still have the Cowboys or Giants available, pick them in that order. If not, it has to be between Carolina and Green Bay. If you can hold off to see if Rodgers plays, do that, and go with the Packers if he does. If you can't, try Carolina. I think the Chiefs-Panthers contest will be close, but I have a tough time seeing Kansas City winning again.

    SATURDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: This spread has fallen to 3.5, so it looks like Aaron Rodgers won't be playing.


    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    The Packers have lost control of the NFC North. They'll need to win this contest to hope to establish that again.


    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    Apparently, the public doesn't think Aaron Rodgers is going to play.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 81% (112,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Road Warrior: Teams are 111-76 ATS in their second straight road game after a loss since 1996.
  • Opening Line: Packers -7.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Showers, 55 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Packers 24, Falcons 20
    Packers -3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 40.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Falcons 27, Packers 24





    Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-3)
    Line: Colts by 3. Total: 49.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Colts -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Colts -6.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Colts.
    Injuries: Colts: OUT: OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, S Bob Sanders*, KR T.J. Rushing (IR). Texans: OUT: RB Chris Brown (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), CB Dunta Robinson, CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown (IR).

    It's time for my NFL Primetime Rant of the Week. Tired of these? Too bad. Until ESPN proves that it cares about its fans and restores its former best show, I'm going to complain every week about how ESPN doesn't have the foresight to let Chris Berman and Tom Jackson tape the show on Sunday night, allowing the network to air it at midnight and at 4 p.m. the next day. Anyway, the current NFL Primetime sucks. The three guys on the program did the Bears-Eagles highlights - only the sequence of all the plays was screwed up. One second, the score was 21-14. The next, the Bears were only up 7-0. This happens often. I have no idea why their highlight packages are always out of order. Oh, and in the Houston-Jacksonville highlight, there was nothing on Houston's offense. Not one play despite the fact that Matt Schaub threw for 300 yards and the Texans scored 27 points. I guess they were too busy talking about dumb things like factor backs.

    The NFL lines are really screwed up this week. Here's an example. Let's assume that the public perceives the Texans Lions as equals. Both teams are 0-3, and casual bettors wouldn't touch either one. In a battle between the two, the Lions would be -3 in Detroit, and the Texans would be -3 in Houston.

    OK, with that in mind, I find it very bizarre that the Bears are -3.5 at Detroit, while the Colts are -3 at Houston. This means that Chicago is half a point better than Indianapolis. How odd is that?

    This is the weirdest line ever. If Vegas wanted equal action on both sides, the heavily backed Colts would be 7-point favorites at the very least. In fact, I would have been less surprised if the spread opened at -9 as opposed to -3.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: But then I thought about it. The Colts are vastly overrated. Their defense was among the league's worst against the run even before Bob Sanders' injury. Now, they can't stop anything. Steve Slaton should have a field day against the interior of Indianapolis' defense, giving an improving Matt Schaub plenty of time to find his targets.

    The Colts have just four sacks on the year, so don't count on them rattling Schaub at all. The only quarterback they've really contained this year is Tarvaris Jackson, who doesn't really count as a legitimate NFL passer. They couldn't even stop Kyle Orton and his slew of weapons like Rashied Davis and Desmond Clark!

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Meanwhile, who's to say Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison have found their groove during the bye week? I'm not ready to. Manning has been really off the first three weeks of the season. He actually has more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3), while his completion rate is ridiculously low (59.2) for his standards.

    There's a chance though that both Manning and Joseph Addai could break out versus Houston's horrific defense. The Texans made David Garrard look like a Pro Bowler again, and going into that contest, he failed to put together a solid performance since the divisional round of the playoffs in January - which includes the preseason.

    RECAP: Is there any surprise that as of Tuesday evening, 97 percent of the action is on Indianapolis? How can the public not take the beloved, high-powered Colts? The line is only three, so all they have to do is win, right?

    Once again, this is not the same Colts team, and if Houston was told it could win only one game this year, this would be it. The Texans hate Indianapolis with a passion. This is their Super Bowl.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Colts are 2.5 back of the Titans, so they need to get going. The Texans, meanwhile, hate Indianapolis with a passion, so they'll bring 100 percent.


    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    The weirdest spread we've seen this year, surpassing Eagles -3 over Bears. This line screams "fixed game."
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 85% (227,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • History: Colts have won 11 of the 12 meetings.
  • Colts are 28-19 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.
  • Peyton Manning is 22-15 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
  • Texans are 24-11 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
  • Opening Line: Colts -3.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Retractable Roof.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Texans 22
    Texans +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 49 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Colts 31, Texans 27





    San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)
    Line: Chargers by 6.5. Total: 44.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Chargers -6.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Chargers -6.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Chargers.
    Injuries: Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR). Dolphins: OUT: G Donald Thomas (IR).

    I can't believe Sean Payton was fined $15,000 for pointing out an obvious no-call in the Week 3 Denver-New Orleans game. In that contest, Broncos linebacker Jamie Winborn was lined up approximately 20 yards offsides. The official somehow missed this, allowing Denver to stop the Saints on third down, forcing Payton into trying a potential game-winning Martin Gramatica field goal. Gramatica predictably missed. Payton deserved to be pissed off, and he had every right to point out the error. Roger Goodell is a jerk for fining Payton. What's he going to do to a coach who complains about a correct call? Steal that coach's soul?

    Of course, the Chargers were pretty pissed off about that call as well; they could be tied atop the AFC West with the Broncos if the Saints won that contest. But that's just another "if" that San Diego has. If Ed Hocchuli makes the right call, they beat Denver. If they don't allow Jake Delhomme to come back, they could be 4-0. But we can't forget that if JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders' offense didn't have so many careless turnovers, San Diego may have lost last week's contest.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: With all that in mind, it's tough to determine how good the Chargers really are. One thing we do know is that in the wake of Shawne Merriman's absence and Jamal Williams' struggles, they really haven't been that good against the run. They're 22nd in that department, allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

    One thing Miami does well offensively is run the ball. Thanks to their goofy offense and sturdy offensive line, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown each rush for more than four yards a clip. Brown's average is at a lofty 4.7.

    The Dolphins should be able to move the chains via the ground game against the jet lagged Chargers, setting up play-action opportunities for the efficient Chad Pennington. Pennington has done a solid job for the Fish thus far; he has only one pick, his completion rate is a shade below 64 and his YPA is 7.1.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I like Pennington to move the chains consistently enough to give the Dolphins a chance to hang in this game. But will it be enough to cover the sub-touchdown spread and hang with the high-scoring Chargers?

    That depends on how legitimate Miami's run defense is. Statistically, the Dolphins are seventh in that department, limiting foes to 3.4 yards per carry. But look at the running backs they've gone against: Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James and Sammy Morris. Not exactly the talent level of LaDainian Tomlinson.

    The Dolphins must keep Tomlinson in check. If they don't, you saw what Philip Rivers did to the Jets' secondary on Monday night. He completely ripped them to shreds. Miami's defensive backfield is even worse than New York's, and it's unlikely that Rivers is going to have two poor outings in a row.

    RECAP: There's no question that the Chargers are the better team, but this is a tough spot for them. They have to travel all the way to Florida before battling New England (in a revenge game), Buffalo and New Orleans (in London).

    I'm not crazy laying 6.5 with a West Coast team in an early East Coast game in such a situation. And speaking of the spread, I find it interesting that despite tons of action on San Diego, the line has dropped from -7 to -6 in some shops.


    The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
    The Chargers are no longer in panic mode, as they're just one back of the Broncos. In fact, they may not be focused at all here because this is a classic Breather Alert. Following this contest, San Diego has New England, Buffalo and New Orleans (in London).


    The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
    Everyone's on San Diego, yet the line has dropped from -7 to -6 in some places.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 80% (217,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 24-39 ATS since 2002 (Norv Turner 4-3).
  • Road Deadbeat: Norv Turner is 1-4 ATS in his second straight road game.
  • Dolphins are 3-13 ATS after a bye the previous 16 years.
  • Chad Pennington is 3-9 ATS as a home dog.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -7.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 83 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Chargers 31, Dolphins 28
    Dolphins +6.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Over 44.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Dolphins 17, Chargers 10



    Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at New York Giants (3-0)
    Line: Giants by 7. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Giants -6.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Giants -6.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Giants.
    Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Seneca Wallace, WR Logan Payne (IR), G Rob Sims (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Deion Branch, WR Bobby Engram, OT Sean Locklear. Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), WR Plaxico Burress*, WR David Tyree, DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), K Lawrence Tynes.

    The YouTube Video of the Week: If you're a fan of Chuck Norris or you like old-school Nintendo games, you'll enjoy Super Chuck Norris Brothers.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Maybe Plaxico Burress can play Super Chuck Norris Brothers during his week off. Burress won't be used in this contest because he didn't show up to practice. He'll be missed a bit, but I'm not too concerned for New York's offense. Eli Manning still has Brandon Jacobs coming out of the backfield, and Amani Toomer, Kevin Boss, and the emerging Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon as downfield targets.

    Seattle's inability to stop the pass will once again prove to be problematic. The team is ranked 23rd against opposing aerial attacks, thanks to a disappointing pass rush. The Seahawks have 10 sacks on the year, but eight of those came against J.T. O'Sullivan and the 49ers in Week 2. They managed just two total sacks against Trent Edwards and Marc Bulger.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: The big news here is that both Bobby Engram and Deion Branch are back, displacing the horrendous Koren Robinson, Keary Colbert and Courtney Taylor. That may be exciting for Seahawks fans, but how effective will Engram and Branch be? Both are coming off major injuries. You can't just plug them back into the lineup and expect them to dominate.

    I'm also concerned with Matt Hasselbeck. Are his struggles - a 48.5 completion percentage, a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 2-to-3 and a YPA of 5.7 - the result of his receivers being out or a lingering back injury that sidelined him during the preseason? I guess we'll find out this Sunday - unless Engram and Branch aren't ready.

    It would be ideal for Seattle's recovering offense to play a soft defense this week, but they aren't so lucky. The Giants have 13 sacks on the year, and are ranked sixth against the pass and 10th versus the run. Points will be hard to come by for a scoring unit that could be out of rhythm this Sunday.

    RECAP: This game is even tougher for the Seahawks when you consider how horrific they are on the road, especially on the East Coast at 1 p.m. Mike Holmgren is 2-11 against the spread in that situation since 2002.

    My only concern with laying a touchdown is that the public is pounding the host. There's always a possibility that the action could even out later in the week - but at least the line hasn't moved off seven.


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    Both teams are coming off byes. The Seahawks trail their division leader by half a game, so there's no urgency here. In fact, Seattle could be a bit relaxed with all of its receivers back.


    The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
    The line opened at 9.5, but that was only for about 20 minutes or so. A seven-point spread has been available to the public. Bettors are pounding the host.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 75% (183,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 24-39 ATS since 2002 (Mike Holmgren 2-11).
  • Seahawks are 6-13 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Giants are 8-15 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 23 instances.
  • Opening Line: Giants -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 66 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Giants 23, Seahawks 6
    Giants -7 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 43.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Giants 44, Seahawks 6







    Washington Redskins (3-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
    Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 41.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 4): Eagles -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 4): Eagles -5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Eagles.
    Injuries: Redskins: OUT: DE Jason Taylor, DE Phillip Daniels (IR), CB Shawn Springs. Eagles: OUT: WR Kevin Curtis, CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR). QUESTIONABLE: RB Brian Westbrook*.

    More College Football Week 5 Notes:

    4) Stacy Dales is hot. So hot, I want to marry her. And yes, I'm aware she's Canadian. Not that there's anything wrong with that...

    5) Tennessee's Jonathan Crompton could be the worst quarterback I've ever seen. Not just in college - on any level. On a third down, he threw the ball 20 yards out of bounds. If there was a league for pre-schoolers, Crompton would be the worst of all the quarterbacks. He'd be last in yardage, completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio, right behind the asthmatic, nose-picking Joey.

    6) Speaking of Crompton, I thought Vols head coach Phil "Mr. Pumpkin" Fulmer would get so sick of Crompton that he'd call a timeout, take him into the locker room, clock him over the head with a two-by-four, strip him of his jersey and hand it to Peyton Manning, who was on the sidelines of the Auburn game. No one would have noticed. I don't know what Mr. Pumpkin was thinking.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Come to think of it, maybe that's what Jim Zorn did with Jason Campbell. That's the only explanation for Campbell's unceremonious transformation from a Week 1 dud to a dominant quarterback. How did he learn the West Coast offense so quickly? Dare I say it? Campbell really looks like Donovan McNabb in his prime...

    ...In the past three weeks, that is. Campbell needs to win a couple of playoff games before that comparison becomes completely valid, but he can start by defeating McNabb at the Linc, which could actually be tougher than winning at Texas Stadium.

    Washington was able to slay Dallas by holding on to the football, converting third downs and keeping the Cowboys' offense off the field. Zorn was able to mix in Clinton Portis runs to keep Wade Phillips' defense on its toes. That won't exactly work against the Eagles, who rank first against the rush. Campbell will have to do everything by himself against a relentless pass rush and a talented cornerbacking corps. Philadelphia has a few liabilities on defense, namely its safeties, but if it keeps Campbell in third-and-long situations, it will force the Redskins into more punts than Dallas did.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Andy Reid's brilliant idea to center his offense around a rookie and call three consecutive running plays on second-and-goal at the three completely backfired in Chicago. Well, Eagles fans won't have to worry about that anymore because it looks like Brian Westbrook will play on Sunday.

    And just in the nick of time too - Washington is 27th against the run. Even though Reid can be a horrendous play-caller at times, I doubt he avoids utilizing Westbrook like Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett would have last Sunday.

    The Eagles will need to give Westbrook the ball as much as possible; even though the Redskins can't stop the rush, they're among the elite against the pass. Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, LaRon Landry and rookie Chris Horton have been phenomenal the past three weeks.

    RECAP: I can't wait to watch this game; it's going to be a classic NFC East defensive brawl. Hopefully FOX doesn't air Bears-Lions instead.

    This is a tough spot for the Redskins. Beating the Cowboys in Texas Stadium was such a tough victory. I don't know if they can come back from that and win another difficult road game, especially against an Eagles team that will do anything in its power to avoid a 2-3 record.

    I'm taking Philadelphia to win and cover, but what do I know? I'm 1-3 against the spread in Redskins games (scroll down all the way for more detailed stats), having lost the past three weeks when picking against them. I've clearly undervalued Washington, so it wouldn't shock me if Campbell and Zorn stand at 4-1 on Sunday evening.

    FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: Great news for Eagles fans. Washington shutdown corner Shawn Springs is out.


    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Redskins are coming off a huge win on national TV against their rivals. Now, they have to play another tough NFC East contest against a team coming off a loss. This is a tough spot for Washington.


    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    The action has shaded toward the Redskins, yet the line is moving Philadelphia's favor.
  • Percentage of money on Washington: 51% (173,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Eagles have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.
  • Losing Coach: Andy Reid is 10-6 ATS as a favorite immediately after losing as a favorite.
  • Redskins are 5-15 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Eagles are 48-31 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Eagles are 22-13 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Donovan McNabb is 19-9 ATS after a loss since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -6.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 67 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 5 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 20
    Eagles -6 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 41.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Redskins 23, Eagles 17



    Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Buccaneers at Broncos, Bills at Cardinals, Bengals at Cowboys, Patriots at 49ers, Steelers at Jaguars, Vikings at Saints





    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)
  • NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)
  • Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)
  • Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)
  • Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)
  • San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)
  • San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)
  • St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)
  • Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)
  • How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)
  • How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)
  • How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)



    2009 NFL Mock Draft


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    2009 NFL Mock Draft Database


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2014): 8-6 (+$90)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 4-6
    Bears: 5-5
    Bucs: 8-2
    49ers: 3-6
    Eagles: 6-4
    Lions: 3-6
    Falcons: 5-5
    Cardinals: 5-5
    Giants: 3-7
    Packers: 7-2
    Panthers: 5-6
    Rams: 5-5
    Redskins: 7-3
    Vikings: 8-2
    Saints: 4-5
    Seahawks: 4-6
    Bills: 4-6
    Bengals: 4-7
    Colts: 5-5
    Broncos: 6-4
    Dolphins: 6-3
    Browns: 5-3
    Jaguars: 5-5
    Chargers: 3-7
    Jets: 6-4
    Ravens: 4-5
    Texans: 5-5
    Chiefs: 7-2
    Patriots: 5-5
    Steelers: 6-5
    Titans: 5-3
    Raiders: 3-7
    Divisional: 21-22 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 9-12 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 12-18 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-28 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 22-12 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 6-10 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

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