WalterFootball.com: NFL Picks Against the Spread

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 6-6 (-$90)

NFL Picks (2014): 6-6 (-$90)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Line: Texans by 3.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I was glad to see Jim Harbaugh pull out a win and cover last week. Hopefully he can make it two in a row. He's 3-0 in the fourth week of the preseason, so I feel comfortable getting points with him versus a relatively unknown in Bill O'Brien.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Jim Harbaugh is 9-6 in preseason games (8-3 excluding Week 1).

Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Bill O'Brien is 2-1 in preseason games.

Bill O'Brien is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Texans 17
49ers +3.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

Baltimore Ravens (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0)
Line: Saints by 3.5.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

You might be surprised that I'm betting John Harbaugh in this spot because he's just 2-4 in the fourth week of preseason games, but it must be noted that two of those losses have come against Jeff Fisher, who is 12-4 in this particular week. The only reason I'm not betting the Rams, by the way, is because Joe Philbin has screwed me twice this preseason. Perhaps he's changed his stance on these meaningless games.

Anyway, I like Baltimore here because Sean Payton is a dreadful 1-7 in the final week of the exhibition slate.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 18-9 in preseason games.

John Harbaugh is 2-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Sean Payton is 21-16 in preseason games.

Sean Payton is 1-7 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Saints 13
Ravens +3.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)
Line: Seahawks by 5.
Saturday, 10:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month. Pete Carroll is all about competition, so he loves winning these preseason games, as his 13-6 record indicates. He's also 3-1 in Week 4, which is a plus. Dennis Allen, meanwhile, is just 3-8 overall and 0-2 in Week 4. Throw in the fact that many of Seattle's backups, who will be playing in this game, could actually start for Oakland, and you have a recipe for a blowout.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Pete Carroll is 13-6 in preseason games.

Pete Carroll is 3-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Dennis Allen is 3-8 in preseason games.

Dennis Allen is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Raiders 12
Seahawks -5 (3 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Incorrect; -$330

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Line: Chargers by 3.
Thursday, 10:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

We don't know a lot about Bruce Arians and Mike McCoy yet, but Arians is 4-1 in the preseason if Week 3 is excluded. Mike McCoy, meanwhile, is just 2-5 overall. He lost last year's Week 4 tilt to the 49ers by the score of 41-6. That's worth a unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Bruce Arians is 4-3 in preseason games (7-3 excluding Week 1).

Bruce Arians is 1-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Mike McCoy is 2-5 in preseason games.

Mike McCoy is 0-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Cardinals 16, Chargers 13
Cardinals +3 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0

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2023 NFL Mock Draft - June 14

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 1, 2022): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 1, 2022): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 1, 2022): $0

2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-0, 0% ($0)

2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 0-0, 0% ($0)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 0-0, 0% ($0)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 0-0, 0% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 0-0, 0% ($0)
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: $0

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,142-2,897-180, 52.0% (+$20,215)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,009-906-49 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 484-428-23 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,594-2,566-69 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 45-30-1 (60.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 11-7	Bears: 11-5	Bucs: 7-12	49ers: 12-8
Eagles: 10-8	Lions: 9-7	Falcons: 10-7	Cardinals: 8-10
Giants: 9-8	Packers: 8-9	Panthers: 9-8	Rams: 13-8
Redskins: 7-10	Vikings: 9-8	Saints: 11-5	Seahawks: 11-6

Bills: 10-9	Bengals: 13-7	Colts: 5-12	Broncos: 9-8
Dolphins: 7-10	Browns: 8-9	Jaguars: 8-9	Chargers: 9-8
Jets: 6-11	Ravens: 10-7	Texans: 3-14	Chiefs: 11-9
Patriots: 9-9	Steelers: 8-10	Titans: 11-7	Raiders: 11-7

Divisional: 54-43 (2011-20: 448-442)	2x Game Edge: 57-62 (2011-20: 279-271)	2x Motivation Edge: 47-48 (2011-20: 394-318)	2x Spread Edge: 48-40 (2011-20: 105-89)
2x Vegas Edge: 35-42 (2011-20: 346-357)	2x Trend Edge: 16-18 (2011-20: 270-241)	Double Edge: 23-27 (2011-20: 149-128)	Triple Edge: 4-10 (2011-20: 27-22)

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