NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2017): 9-6-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2017): 6-10 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2017): 8-8 (+$350)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2017): 7-8-1 (-$460)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2017): 13-2-1 (+$1,500)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2017): 12-4 (+$1,120)

NFL Picks (2017): 125-126-9 (-$2,700)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 6, 4:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 18 NFL Picks – Sunday Games

Tennessee Titans (9-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Line: Chiefs by 9. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line: Chiefs -6.5.
Saturday, Jan. 6, 4:35 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

WEEK 17 RECAP: Week 16 was awesome, and so was Week 17. The only wager I lost this past weekend was Raiders +7. Everything else hit, and I finished 12-4 (+$1,120).

I’m upset that the regular season is over because it feels like I’ve finally figured things out. It sucks that the year is ending, but I’m extremely excited for 2018. It’s going to be my best season ever.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

My overrated-underrated feature will continue in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Chicago Bears: The Bears dropped four in a row prior to beating the Bengals, but they were without Danny Trevathan or top safety Adrian Amos for all four of contests. Trevathan is not only the heart and soul of Chicago’s defense, but he also happens to be the brains of the operation. Amos, meanwhile, has been playing on a Pro Bowl level. The Bears frequently blow coverages with Trevathan being out of the lineup, so it’s no surprise that their defense has been much better with him back on the field. They lost to the Lions and Vikings recently, but they outgained Detroit and averaged more yards per play. As for the Vikings loss, well, just chalk that up to Minnesota’s dominance.

Detroit Lions: The Lions seldom had anything close to a complete roster this season. In their most crucial game of the year, they were missing three starting offensive linemen. Detroit will be better in 2018 with improved injury luck.

San Francisco 49ers: It’s amazing what a competent signal-caller can do. The 49ers have had bad (Brian Hoyer) and abysmal (C.J. Beathard) quarterbacking this year, but Jimmy Garoppolo has been great against the Bears, Texans, Titans and Jaguars. With Garoppolo, the 49ers are so much better than 6-10. They have a solid running back, two talented tackles, and several impressive play-makers in the front seven. They still have some glaring holes at receiver, center and cornerback, but had Garoppolo started all year, I get the sense that the 49ers would be 11-5 or better right now.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are two kicks on national TV away from being 8-8. They also beat Dallas when the Cowboys lost Sean Lee and already didn’t have Tyron Smith or Ezekiel Elliott. This team is just not clicking like it did last year. They’ve been making way too many mistakes all season. Their win over the Panthers was seemingly impressive, but I don’t know about Carolina either.

Jacksonville Jaguars: No one should be surprised that the Jaguars lost to the Titans, and that San Francisco demolished Jacksonville. The Jaguars prevailed over the Seahawks because Seattle lost both of its star linebackers. They beat the Chargers because Los Angeles made so many mistakes. Jacksonville had just one legitimate scoring drive in that contest. The Jaguars have otherwise beaten lots of bad teams, except when they lost to the Cardinals and nearly went down to the Browns, holding just a 10-7 lead in the middle of the fourth quarter. They remind me of the Giants from 2016. They’re overachieving, and they’re likely going to make the playoffs, but they’ll lose in the postseason right away and will win just 3-4 games next year once things stop going their way.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are definitely not the same without Ryan Shazier, as they couldn’t stop Alex Collins runs and Joe Flacco passes without him. The freaking Ravens scored 38 points against them! They could’ve beaten the Patriots, but now Antonio Brown is also out.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It was only four weeks ago when everyone in Kansas City was panicking. The Chiefs were coming off losses to the Jets, Bills and Giants in consecutive games, and they were favored by just four over the pathetic Raiders at home in Week 14. Kansas City dismantled Oakland, then the Chargers and Dolphins, which helped clinch the division. Kareem Hunt was a monster during that stretch, rushing for an average of 120.7 yards in those three contests.

The Chiefs had the luxury of battling three soft rush defenses – the Chargers are terrific versus the pass, but weak against the run without Denzel Perryman – but that’ll change in this contest. The Titans have one of the top units against ground attacks. They’ve surrendered just one 100-yard rushing performance since Week 4, and that was to Todd Gurley and his prolific offensive line. Hunt, while talented, is not Gurley, and the Chiefs certainly don’t have the offensive line to win in the trenches. Thus, I think the Titans will be able to handle Hunt.

The Titans are definitely weaker against the pass, and I expect Alex Smith to exploit this liability. Tyreek Hill should be able to beat the Titans deep once or twice, as Tennessee has horrible play from safety John Cyprien. The Titans have also been mediocre against tight ends, so containing Travis Kelce could be problematic. That said, Tennessee could compensate for this by applying lots of pressure on Smith. They’ll be able to do that with Brian Orakpo and Jurrell Casey, both of whom have favorable matchups in the trenches.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Titans are strong at stopping the run, that’s not quite the case for the Chiefs. They have one of the weakest ground defenses in the NFL, coming in dead last in DVOA. That doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup, as Tennessee loves doing nothing more than pounding the ball with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Also, don’t forget about Marcus Mariota, who has been much more mobile recently than he was earlier in the year when he was injured.

That said, I don’t expect Tennessee’s scoring unit to accomplish much in the early going. Mike Mularkey absolutely murders his team’s chances of scoring by slowing the game down unnecessarily. The Titans would be so much better if they could go with an up-tempo, no-huddle approach, which is why they are generally better at moving the chains at the end of halves and in the fourth quarter. I joked about Mularkey being fired prior to this game in my NFL Power Rankings, and I actually think Tennessee would benefit from getting rid of him right now.

It’s a shame, too, because the Titans have the horses to win this game. They have some solid receivers in Rishard Matthews, Corey Davis and Eric Decker, who should be able to expose Kansas City’s putrid secondary. The Chiefs have just one talented defensive back in Marcus Peters, as they really miss Eric Berry. Mariota should be able to take advantage of this glaring weakness when given the opportunity to do so.

RECAP: Quarterbacks making their first start in the playoffs have a very dubious track record. I’ve compiled the stats for you. Here are all the first-time playoff quarterbacks in the past 15 years:

Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jared Goff (-6.5), LAR, 2017: ???
Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: ???

Home Underdogs:

Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Favorites:

David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Underdogs:

QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: ???
Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: ???

To sum it up:

Home favorites: 4-10 ATS, 5-9 SU
Home underdogs: 2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 4-9 ATS, 2-11 SU

Combined Record: 11-26-1 ATS, 11-27 SU

Ouch. No road underdog quarterback of more than seven has covered in his first playoff start in the past 15 years. Not even Andrew Luck or Matthew Stafford.

That obviously makes betting the Titans pretty dubious, but I don’t think doing so is impossible. This spread, I believe, is too high; I made it Kansas City -6.5. A point-and-a-half may not seem like much, but we’re going through the second-most significant key number, which is seven. The Titans have been blown out once since Week 4, which was a Thursday night affair against Pittsburgh that was close until the middle of the third quarter. Except for that game, here’s how much the Titans have lost by since Week 4: 6, 5, 2, 4. The last defeat was against the Rams, who are better than the Chiefs. Granted, it was at home, but Arrowhead, according to spread metrics, is the second-worst home-field advantage in the NFL, better than only Dallas.

I’m taking the Titans to cover. I think they’ll be able to hang around because Kansas City’s defense is so bad. Even if they’re down by double digits, they could get a back-door score to cover. That said, I don’t want to bet them. The first-time quarterback playoff trend is worrisome, as is Mularkey’s horrible coaching. I just don’t trust him at all. The Chiefs have such an edge in coaching, it’s ridiculous, and I almost picked them because of that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming on the Chiefs. This line moved to -9, which shouldn’t be a big deal because nine is a dead number. One thing to note for the Titans is that DeMarco Murray is out, but I think that’s OK. The Chiefs are much weaker to backs on the ground than through the air, and Derrick Henry is the better pure rusher.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ll have final thoughts posted on this game around 4 p.m. As of right now, this is still zero units on the Titans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a bit of professional money on the Chiefs earlier in the week, but the closing line says something different. This spread is -8.5 or -9 in most books (+9 at Bovada), but Pinnacle has an -8 posted, meaning the smartest book out there wants Kansas City money. That’s a good sign for the Titans. I still like Tennessee, but not enough to make a wager on them because of its poor coaching and lack of playoff experience.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 55% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 18 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Titans 20
Titans +9 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 22, Chiefs 21

Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Line: Rams by 6. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line: Rams -4.5.
Saturday, Jan. 6, 8:15 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Rams.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. Here were last week’s most-bet sides:

49ers -3

Redskins -3.5

Chiefs +3.5

Chargers -8

Bills -3

The highest-bet sides were 38-37-4 heading into Week 17. The sportsbooks have been getting slaughtered in the second half of the season, and that continued with four of the five highest-bet sides all covered. At this rate, there are going to be bodies buried in the desert. Highest-bet sides are now 42-38-4. There are actually no highly bet sides at the moment, but perhaps that’ll change later in the week.

HATE MAIL: I didn’t receive much hate mail following Week 17, but there was one ad hominem attack:

My NFL picks have gotten better, but my college picks still suck, as people in the comments made sure to tell me:

What’s up with these people asking for handouts? Get your own drug-dealing cousin!

“Glad Walt be liking Georgia.” OK, cave man. Glad you be posting stupid comments.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I don’t want to take away anything from the Rams, who have enjoyed a terrific season, but you have to wonder if their success had to do with a favorable schedule. They won in Dallas back in Week 4, but Sean Lee didn’t play in that game. They beat the Jaguars, but needed two special-teams touchdowns to do so. They lost by 17 at Minnesota. They beat the Saints when New Orleans was missing both of its starting cornerbacks. They destroyed the Seahawks, but four of Seattle’s five best back-seven players were injured.

I’m not saying the Rams are a bad team, or anything. In fact, they’re fourth in my NFL Power Rankings. However, I think it’s fair to say that they’ve caught numerous lucky breaks along the way. This, however, could prove to be a difficult matchup. I don’t want to say that any team is equipped to deal with Todd Gurley, but the Falcons have surrendered just one 100-yard rushing performance since Week 7. Gurley will still have a terrific performance because he’s the best running back in the NFL, but I’m not sure if he’ll be completely unstoppable, especially with prolific linebacker Deion Jones available to deal with him as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

As for Jared Goff, there might be an opportunity for the Falcons to rattle him a bit. Goff is well protected, but there’s one weakness on the front line, and that would be right guard Jamon Brown. That’s where Grady Jarrett lines up for Atlanta. Jarrett absolutely dominated Week 17, helping his team put immense pressure on Cam Newton, who couldn’t complete any of his first nine passes. Goff will have more protection than Newton, but his receivers will have trouble getting open against the Falcons’ stellar secondary.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons, of course, will have problems with the Rams’ defensive line. Aaron Donald is one of the top interior disruptors in the NFL, and Michael Brockers is prolific as well. They both have good matchups, as Atlanta doesn’t have the best guard play. Andy Levitre’s absence will hurt.

However, the Falcons have positive matchups elsewhere on this side of the ball. Los Angeles’ secondary took a hit when top cornerback Kayvon Webster suffered a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu have strong outlooks as a result.

Devonta Freeman should also thrive. The Rams are 22nd in rush defense DVOA, and they aren’t particularly well equipped to deal with receiving backs because of shoddy linebacker play. Freeman figures to be a big factor as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: This spread seems like it’s too high. I made this line Los Angeles -4.5, so we’re going through the third-most-prominent key number, which is six.

Also, this is Goff’s first playoff start. I’ve already posted how terribly quarterbacks making their initial postseason appearance have fared over the years. Goff has great talent, but he’s not all there mentally yet. Sean McVay, after all, makes all of Goff’s pre-snap reads for him, which has worked against poor defenses, but not so much versus the better stop units in the NFL. I don’t think this sort of approach will bode well in the playoffs; not even against the sixth seed in the conference.

Even if the Rams get going with a quick start, I have faith that Matt Ryan can make things close eventually. Ryan has a strong track record of covering as a large underdog – 10-5 against the spread when getting six or more points since his second season – and that makes sense because the better quarterbacks in the NFL tend to either win or keep games close. I’ve already discussed the Rams’ problems at cornerback and linebacker, so Ryan should be able to throw a back-door touchdown if he needs one.

I like the Falcons quite a bit in this matchup, as they’re getting way too many points, and I’m going to wager four units on them. I may increase this to five units if +7 -110 becomes available.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams are healthy heading into this game, and I still like the Falcons for four units. I’m hoping to get +7 even though that would mean that the sharps would be betting the Rams.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some sharp money came in on the Falcons at +6.5 and +6. This spread is now +5.5 in most places, though still +6 -110 at 5Dimes and +6 -115 at Bovada. I thought about locking this in, and I may do that at some point during the day.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s mixed sharp action. Some pros took the Falcons at +6.5 and +6. Others bet the Rams at -5.5. I was hoping to see +6.5 again, but that’s not available outside of Pinnacle right now, so take advantage of that if you live outside the U.S. For us Americans, the best number I see for the Falcons is +6 -105 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 51% (85,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 10-5 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since his second season.

Opening Line: Rams -4.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 18 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Falcons 24
Falcons +6 -105 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 26, Rams 13

Week 18 NFL Picks – Sunday Games
Bills at Jaguars, Panthers at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 18 NFL Picks – Sunday Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)