Week 16 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2008): 7-9 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2008): 9-5-2 (+$1,200)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 115-104-5 (+$2,580)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 16 – Early Games
Colts at Jaguars, Ravens at Cowboys, Dolphins at Chiefs, Saints at Lions, Bengals at Browns, Chargers at Buccaneers, 49ers at Rams, Steelers at Titans, Cardinals at Patriots

NFL Picks Week 16 – Late Games
Texans at Raiders, Jets at Seahawks, Bills at Broncos, Eagles at Redskins, Falcons at Vikings, Panthers at Giants, Packers at Bears


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I’ll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it’ll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It’ll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Denver Broncos – Great offense + terrible defense = overrated. That’s why the Broncos are 4-9 against the spread this year. Denver’s wins over the Jets and Falcons may make people forget how terrible this defense is. They couldn’t stop the Raiders! I have to believe Denver will continue to fail to cover as a large favorite.

2. New York Jets – Beating the Titans was the worst thing that could have happened to the Jets. They used up all of their energy and they don’t have any gas left in the tank. They just peaked too early. Before the struggle against the Bills, I declared that New York would barely beat Buffalo, and then lose to Seattle and Miami to close out the season. I’m 1-for-1 so far.

3. Washington Redskins – The Redskins just lost to the Bengals and everyone saw that, but I would still say they’re overrated because of their record. A mark of 7-7 may make it seem like they’re mediocre, but they’re not. The Redskins are easily one of the worst teams in the NFL. they were horrible before losing to a string of quality opponents. They lost to the Rams. They needed a missed field goal from Phil Dawson to beat the Browns. They had to manage a second-half comeback to knock off the Lions. And they beat the Seahawks by only three points. The team that upset Dallas and Philadelphia in consecutive road games is long gone.

4. Miami Dolphins – Excluding the loss to J.P. Zohan on a neutral field, check out Miami’s results the past six weeks: 14-9 over 5-8 San Francisco; 21-19 over 2-10 Seattle; 17-15 over 3-9 Oakland; 48-28 loss to New England; 16-12 over 2-10 St. Louis. The Dolphins have covered only game since Nov. 2, which was the aforementioned victory over the Bills. I have no idea why they’re playing such sloppy football right now.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Baltimore Ravens – Great defense + efficient offense = underrated. That’s why the Ravens have covered seven of eight games since Oct. 12. Every time anyone thinks of the Ravens, they can’t get Brian Billick’s crappy offense out of their mind.

2. Kansas City Chiefs – Since Tyler Thigpen took over as quarterback, the Chiefs have won only one game, but they’ve covered six of eight contests. Five of Thigpen’s seven losses have been decided by a touchdown or less. Four were by four points or less.

3. Seattle Seahawks – Despite losing six of seven, the Seahawks have played really well lately, and have been competitive with the Patriots, Redskins and Dolphins. They nearly beat the Patriots without Walter Jones!

4. St. Louis Rams – I still like the Rams as a covering machine because they’re much more competitive with Steven Jackson in the backfield.















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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)