NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 5-5 (-$250)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2018): 5-5 (-$250)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




New York Giants (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)
Line: Jets by 3.

Friday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

The records of the two coaches are pretty even, but I like the Jets in this matchup. Their backup quarterbacks are much better than the Giants’ reserve signal-callers, so that’ll give them a huge edge in the second half. This line is -2.5 -115 in most places, but I like -3 +105 at 5Dimes, as three isn’t as much of a key number in the preseason.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Pat Shurmur is 4-6 in preseason games.
  • Pat Shurmur is 0-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Todd Bowles is 7-7 in preseason games.
  • Todd Bowles is 1-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 24, Giants 17
    Jets -3 +105 (2 Units) – 5Dimes






    Houston Texans (2-0) at Los Angeles Rams (1-1)
    Line: Pick.

    Saturday, 4:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I’m adding a sixth pick this week because it’s been reporting that Jared Goff is likely to sit out because Todd Gurley, Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein all won’t play. The Rams don’t want to put Goff in harm’s way, and rightfully so. That means it’ll be Sean Mannion versus Deshaun Watson for about a half, which gives Houston a big edge. Also, Bill O’Brien is 11-6 in the preseason, which is a solid record.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Bill O’Brien is 11-6 in preseason games.
  • Bill O’Brien is 3-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Sean McVay is 3-3 in preseason games.
  • Sean McVay is 0-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Rams 17
    Texans PK +100 (2 Units) – 5Dimes







    San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
    Line: Pick.

    Saturday, 4:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    This is another game where neither coach has a record advantage in the preseason. However, I believe the quarterback play will favor the Colts. I expect Andrew Luck to play longer than Jimmy Garoppolo because he’s very rusty. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett is one of the top backup quarterbacks in the NFL, so that should give Indianapolis an edge in the second half.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 3-3 in preseason games.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 1-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Frank Reich is 1-1 in preseason games.
  • Frank Reich is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Colts 23, 49ers 17
    Colts PK +100 (1 Unit) – 5Dimes







    Baltimore Ravens (3-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-2)
    Line: Pick.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    John Harbaugh’s preseason track record speaks for itself. It helps that he has the far superior backup quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson has struggled, but he can still move around, and he’s way better than the aptly named David Fales. It’s also worth noting that Baltimore has a superior first-string unit compared to Miami. The Ravens are my top pick of the week for these reasons.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • John Harbaugh is 31-12 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 7-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Adam Gase is 4-6 in preseason games.
  • Adam Gase is 1-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Dolphins 16
    Ravens -1 -105 (3 Units) – Bookmaker







    Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-1)
    Line: Bills by 2.5.

    Saturday, 4:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Marvin Lewis has a poor track record in Week 3 of the preseason, but that’s only a minor reason why I like Buffalo. The big thing for me is that we’re going to see a ton of Josh Allen. When Allen’s not playing, it’ll be Nathan Peterman, who has shown to be a strong backup thus far. Cincinnati’s reserve quarterbacks suck by comparison.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Marvin Lewis is 32-31 in preseason games.
  • Marvin Lewis is 4-11 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Sean McDermott is 2-4 in preseason games.
  • Sean McDermott is 0-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Bengals 17
    Bills -2.5 -105 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker







    Arizona Cardinals (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-2)
    Line: Cowboys by 3.

    Sunday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Steve Wilks has shown a desire to win preseason games thus far, which is a good sign for Arizona in this contest. Another is that Josh Rosen and Mike Glennon are far superior to Mike White and Cooper Rush. I love the Cardinals getting three points, especially with the -105 juice available at 5Dimes.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Steve Wilks is 2-0 in preseason games.
  • Steve Wilks is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Jason Garrett is 12-19 in preseason games.
  • Jason Garrett is 4-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Cowboys 21
    Cardinals +3 -105 (3 Units) – 5Dimes





    2024 NFL Mock Draft - March 19


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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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