Week 17 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2008): 7-9 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2008): 9-5-2 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2008): 6-10 (-$700)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 121-114-5 (+$1,880)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 28, 11:05 a.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 17 – Early Games
Browns at Steelers, Patriots at Bills, Chiefs at Bengals, Lions at Packers, Raiders at Buccaneers, Titans at Colts, Panthers at Saints, Giants at Vikings, Rams at Falcons, Bears at Texans

NFL Picks Week 17 – Late Games
Jaguars at Ravens, Cowboys at Eagles, Redskins at 49ers, Seahawks at Cardinals, Dolphins at Jets, Broncos at Chargers


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I’ll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it’ll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It’ll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The NBC crew brought up a great point. Ever since Monte Kiffin announced that he’ll be joining his son Lane at the University of Tennessee, Tampa Bay’s defense has been absolutely abysmal. It’s a joke that the Buccaneers are favored by about two touchdowns against anyone.

2. New York Jets – Beating the Titans was the worst thing that could have happened to the Jets. They used up all of their energy and they don’t have any gas left in the tank. They just peaked too early. Before the struggle against the Bills, I declared that New York would barely beat Buffalo, and then lose to Seattle and Miami to close out the season. I’m 2-for-2 so far.

3. Houston Texans – Great offense + terrible defense = overrated. I can’t believe I missed this one. The Texans used to be underrated, but ever since they won on Monday night and then upset the Titans, people have begun talking about them as a possible playoff team in 2009. Well, unless the Texans improve their defense, they’ll just be a Denver Broncos clone. And unfortunately for them, they don’t play in an awful division. (By the way, only three overrateds because I have five underrateds).



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Baltimore Ravens – Great defense + efficient offense = underrated. That’s why the Ravens have covered eight of nine games since Oct. 12. Every time anyone thinks of the Ravens, they can’t get Brian Billick’s crappy offense out of their mind.

2. St. Louis Rams – The Rams haven’t won in a while, but they’ve covered three of their last four games. Since Steven Jackson came back to the lineup, St. Louis has been much more competitive.

3. Buffalo Bills – Amid all of this talk about Dick Jauron blowing a 5-1 record, the Bills have started playing better recently. Excluding one contest in the past six games, Buffalo has either won or lost by seven points or less. Say what you want about the Bills, but they’ve been competitive.

4. Denver Broncos – The Broncos aren’t that good, but they’re not bad enough to be 9-point underdogs. People forget that they won on the road against the Jets and Falcons recently. As I’ve been saying, they have the offense to beat anyone, but they also have the defense to lose to anyone.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Since Tyler Thigpen took over as quarterback, the Chiefs have won only one game, but they’ve covered six of nine contests. Six of Thigpen’s eight losses have been decided by a touchdown or less. Four were by four points or less.















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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2
Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5
Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)