Week 15 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2008): 7-9 (-$80)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 106-99-3 (+$1,380)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 15, 4:20 a.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 15 - Early Games
Saints at Bears, Bills at Jets, 49ers at Dolphins, Chargers at Chiefs, Packers at Jaguars, Lions at Colts, Redskins at Bengals, Seahawks at Rams, Titans at Texans, Buccaneers at Falcons

NFL Picks Week 15 - Late Games
Vikings at Cardinals, Steelers at Ravens, Broncos at Panthers, Patriots at Raiders, Giants at Cowboys, Browns at Eagles


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I'll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it'll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It'll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Denver Broncos - Great offense + terrible defense = overrated. That's why the Broncos are 4-9 against the spread this year. Denver's wins over the Jets and Falcons may make people forget how terrible this defense is. They couldn't stop the Raiders! I have to believe Denver will continue to fail to cover as a large favorite.

2. Washington Redskins - I know the Redskins just lost to the talented Cowboys, Steelers, Giants and Ravens, and that's nothing to be ashamed of. However, they were horrible the three games prior to those defeats. They lost to the Rams. They needed a missed field goal from Phil Dawson to beat the Browns. They had to manage a second-half comeback to knock off the Lions. And they beat the Seahawks by only three points. The team that upset Dallas and Philadelphia in consecutive road games is long gone.

3. Cincinnati Bengals - It's hard to call a 1-11-1 team overrated, but we're talking in terms of the spread. The Bengals lost four key linemen before the Pittsburgh game. Since that contest, they haven't covered a single spread. In fact, they lost their last two games by the combined scores of 69-6. Ouch. With major injuries up front on both sides of the ball, Cincinnati isn't covering any time soon.

4. Miami Dolphins - Excluding the loss to J.P. Zohan on a neutral field, check out Miami's results the past five weeks: 21-19 over 2-10 Seattle; 17-15 over 3-9 Oakland; 48-28 loss to New England; 16-12 over 2-10 St. Louis. The Dolphins have covered only game since Nov. 2, which was the aforementioned victory over the Bills. I have no idea why they're playing such sloppy football right now.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Baltimore Ravens - Great defense + efficient offense = underrated. That's why the Ravens have covered seven of eight games since Oct. 12.

2. Houston Texans - Shsh... don't tell anyone, but the Texans have won three in a row, and with another victory, they'll be 7-7. Houston debacled Jacksonville on Monday night and followed that up with an impressive win at Lambeau. Even before this streak, they nearly pulled off the upset in Indianapolis despite having Sage Rosenchoker at the helm.

3. Seattle Seahawks - Despite losing six in a row, the Seahawks have played really well lately and have been competitive with the Patriots, Redskins and Dolphins. They nearly beat the Patriots without Walter Jones!

4. St. Louis Rams - I've been betting against the Rams recently because they can't win without Steven Jackson. I thought Jackson would be limited against Miami, but he received 21 carries without getting dinged up. With Jackson and Orlando Pace back in the lineup, St. Louis could become a covering machine down the stretch. They couldn't get it done at Arizona, but keep in mind that the Cardinals had two defensive touchdowns. The Rams won't be as unlucky the last three weeks of the season.





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Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I'll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Baltimore Ravens - Great defense + efficient offense = underrated. That's why the Ravens have covered seven of eight games since Oct. 12.

2. Houston Texans - Shsh... don't tell anyone, but the Texans have won three in a row, and with another victory, they'll be 7-7. Houston debacled Jacksonville on Monday night and followed that up with an impressive win at Lambeau. Even before this streak, they nearly pulled off the upset in Indianapolis despite having Sage Rosenchoker at the helm.

3. Seattle Seahawks - Despite losing six in a row, the Seahawks have played really well lately and have been competitive with the Patriots, Redskins and Dolphins. They nearly beat the Patriots without Walter Jones!

4. St. Louis Rams - I've been betting against the Rams recently because they can't win without Steven Jackson. I thought Jackson would be limited against Miami, but he received 21 carries without getting dinged up. With Jackson and Orlando Pace back in the lineup, St. Louis could become a covering machine down the stretch. They couldn't get it done at Arizona, but keep in mind that the Cardinals had two defensive touchdowns. The Rams won't be as unlucky the last three weeks of the season.

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2009 NFL Mock Draft Database


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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 11-7	Bears: 11-5	Bucs: 7-12	49ers: 12-8
Eagles: 10-8	Lions: 9-7	Falcons: 10-7	Cardinals: 8-10
Giants: 9-8	Packers: 8-9	Panthers: 9-8	Rams: 13-8
Redskins: 7-10	Vikings: 9-8	Saints: 11-5	Seahawks: 11-6
Bills: 10-9	Bengals: 13-7	Colts: 5-12	Broncos: 9-8
Dolphins: 7-10	Browns: 8-9	Jaguars: 8-9	Chargers: 9-8
Jets: 6-11	Ravens: 10-7	Texans: 3-14	Chiefs: 11-9
Patriots: 9-9	Steelers: 8-10	Titans: 11-7	Raiders: 11-7
Divisional: 54-43 (2011-20: 448-442)	2x Game Edge: 57-62 (2011-20: 279-271)	2x Motivation Edge: 47-48 (2011-20: 394-318)	2x Spread Edge: 48-40 (2011-20: 105-89)
2x Vegas Edge: 35-42 (2011-20: 346-357)	2x Trend Edge: 16-18 (2011-20: 270-241)	Double Edge: 23-27 (2011-20: 149-128)	Triple Edge: 4-10 (2011-20: 27-22)