Week 15 NFL Picks – WalterFootball

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2008): 7-9 (-$80)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 106-99-3 (+$1,380)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 15, 4:20 a.m. ET.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

Minnesota Vikings (8-5) at Arizona Cardinals (8-5)
Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Cardinals -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Cardinals -3.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Injuries: Vikings: OUT: QB Gus Frerotte, DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson, CB Charles Gordon (IR), S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DTs Williams Wall (SUSP). Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR).

The 14th installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt.

Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital! In Week 7, Al Davis finds proof that Emmitt and Green conspired to lose on purpose. Week 8: Roger Goodell cancels all games for a mysterious reason. Week 9: A steroids scandal rocks Foxborough! Week 10: Both Emmitt and Anthony Morelli were very busy during an interesting bye week. Week 11: the Patriots get “blowed out” without Emmitt, while Morelli mysteriously avoids a suspension! Week 12: the Patriots battle the Jets for first place in the AFC East. Week 13: Emmitt and Romeo Crennel attend a charity event prior to playing Andy Reid and the 49ers.

Now, in Week 14, about 100 players are suspended for violating the illegal substance policy. Find out what happened on Friday! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

I don’t know where to begin with this game. So many questions…

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Will the Williams Wall play? Vegas hasn’t posted a line on this yet, presumably because the Wall might be suspended on Friday. The lacking spread certainly isn’t for Gus Frerotte, who is questionable (lack of talent).

At any rate, a naive fan could argue that the Wall’s availability shouldn’t really matter. It’s not like the Cardinals run the ball anyway. You can throw on the Vikings, who rank 23rd against the pass. Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston should all have big games.

Minnesota’s mission has to be putting pressure on Warner. That’s where the Wall will come into play. If the Wall is out, the Cardinals can afford to help with double teams on Jared Allen. If not, Allen could make Warner’s life miserable.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Frerotte or Tarvaris Jackson? Ugh. Some Viking fans may feel secure with Jackson in the wake of his comeback victory over Detroit. But don’t fool yourselves. He was playing the Lions. Nothing against the Lions should count. As Emmitt would say, it was an “amerition.”

It’s no secret that you beat the Cardinals by throwing on them. The Vikings can’t do that. They’ll try to establish the run with Adrian Peterson, who could have some trouble because Arizona is sixth versus the rush.

I wouldn’t discount Peterson from having a great game; I more concerned with Minnesota’s ability to sustain drives without a potent aerial attack against the Cardinals.

RECAP: I really don’t have a strong feel for this contest. On paper, the Cardinals should win, but I have no idea what the spread will be.

I guess I’d lean Arizona because I don’t trust Brad Clueless on the West Coast against a quality opponent. In all likelihood, however, this will be a zero-unit selection. Check back to see what my pick is once a line is posted.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.
The Cardinals have captured the NFC West, so I don’t know what sort of mindset they’ll have here. The Vikings, meanwhile, could still be flat after their big win over Chicago – it definitely showed against the Lions.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Looks like everyone’s backing Arizona.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 90% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Hometown Hero: Ken Whisenhunt is 2-0 ATS at home following a home win.

Vikings are 3-23 ATS in their road finales since 1980.

Cardinals are 12-4 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 8-6 ATS (10-4 SU) at home under Ken Whisenhunt.

Cardinals are 6-1 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cardinals 34, Vikings 24
Cardinals -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Vikings 35, Cardinals 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 33.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Ravens -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Ravens -1.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR), LS Greg Warren (IR). Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), WR Demetrius Williams (IR), TE Quinn “Miracle Man” Sypniewski (IR), OT Marshal Yanda (IR), OT Adam Terry, DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR), CB Chris McAlister (IR), S Dawan Landry (IR).

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “And also try to use some play-action if they can… Rashaa… with Rashaan Mendenhall runnin the rock.” (Commentary: Poor Mike Tomlin. He tried following Emmitt’s advice, but couldn’t find anyone named Rashaan Mendenhall on his roster.)

2. “When they came out in the third quarter, they played like they was trying not to lose the game.” (Commentary: That’s strange! I thought they were trying to lose the game, but Emmitt’s sage analysis set me straight.)

3. “The defense feel like they have to score points defensively in order to win game… games.” (Commentary: For anyone who had a sneaking suspicion that the defense was trying to score offensively, your theory has been debunked.)

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: When the casual bettor thinks of the Ravens, that person still probably perceives the Ravens to be offensively inept on a subconscious level. Can you blame them? Brian Billick’s offenses have epically failed for years.

As a mere rookie, Joe Flacco looks like Joe Montana compared to the bums Billick assembled. After a rocky start, Flacco has 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions since Oct. 12. I thought rookie signal callers were supposed to struggle?

Flacco actually played pretty well against the Steelers the first time he battled them. He was 16-of-31 for 192 yards and a touchdown. He did fumble two times, however, but that was in the first road game of his career.

That said, Pittsburgh’s defense has been amazing this year. Until last week, the team was ranked first against the run and the pass, and they put an immense amount of pressure on the quarterback. With Baltimore’s ground attack nullified, the Steelers will be free to concentrate on sacking Flacco. Todd Heap will have to be used as a blocker, which will limit Flacco’s options.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I don’t expect Ben Roethlisberger to have a good game either. In that Week 4 battle, he threw an interception and fumbled. He was also sacked three times because his offensive line sucks.

Like Pittsburgh, Baltimore will put the clamps on the rush, forcing Big Ben to air it out in long-yardage situations. That’s never a good thing against an opportunistic Ravens defense.

RECAP: The Steelers barely won that aforementioned divisional contest, 23-20. Pittsburgh plays better as visitors, but you could also argue that Flacco will put together a much superior game at home than he did in his first ever road tilt.

This is looking like yet another zero-unit game. I really don’t know where to go with this because it wouldn’t surprise me if either squad won.

I slightly favor Pittsburgh here – only because the team seems to pull victories out of its rear end every week. This game is going down to the wire, and I trust Big Ben in the clutch. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Flacco has yet to will his team to victory in the final seconds. Not that he’s expected to yet. He is, after all, just a rookie.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
This one’s for the AFC North title, but the Ravens probably have more to lose; if they go down, they’re in major trouble. If Pittsburgh loses, it can still easily make the Doggone Playoff.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Steelers are an underdog? Almost seems too easy. But the public doesn’t think so.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 55% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Home Team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 55-20 as a starter (44-30 ATS).

Ben Roethlisberger is 9-4 ATS as a road dog.

Ben Roethlisberger is 12-6 ATS as an underdog.

Ravens are 7-19 ATS after a home game since 2005.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.

Opening Total: 33.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Ravens 17
Steelers +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 33.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Steelers 13, Ravens 9

Denver Broncos (8-5) at Carolina Panthers (10-3)
Line: Panthers by 7.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Panthers -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Panthers -7.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Broncos: OUT: QB Patrick Ramsey (IR), RB Peyton Hillis (IR), RB Michael Pittman (IR), RB Andre Hall (IR), TE Nate Jackson (IR), OT Erik Pears, C Tom Nalen (IR), OLB Boss Bailey (IR). Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR).

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever.

Tony Romo had three points. Hines Ward? Nothing. Derrick Ward, Tim Hightower, Marcedes Lewis and new England’s defense? Barely anything.

Bo-Bo went down in a blaze of glory his final game, losing 81-52. Bo-Bo finished the season 4-10. Hopefully Bo-Bo comes back next year and drafts more crappy players like Shaun Alexander and Rudi Johnson.

But Bo-Bo may not have time to play fantasy football next year; he’s way too busy having sex with every single woman who has ever lived and who will ever live in the universe, and buying up property in… oh, wait, he already owns everything that has ever been made in this world.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos are one of the more erratic teams in the NFL. How do you explain winning at Atlanta, losing at home to the Raiders, clobbering the Jets on the road and then barely beating Kansas City in successive weeks? It really doesn’t make much sense.

Or does it? Here’s how I see it: Denver can beat anyone because of its terrific offense. But the team can also lose to anyone because of its abysmal defense.

The Broncos should be able to light up the scoreboard in Carolina. If you watched the Monday night game, you saw that Jeff Garcia was able to go deep on the Panthers a few times. Garcia going deep…? That hasn’t happened in years!

Cutler should be able to dissect Carolina’s secondary, which will open up some lanes for whomever the running back is. The Broncos should seriously do what the NCAA Football video game does and call their backs “RB #34” or whatever. They keep going down with injuries, so I think it would be cheaper to have a few set jersey numbers available for these guys.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Getting back to Denver’s problem, the Panthers will steamroll the Broncos. Getting Jeff Otah in the draft basically gave Carolina two upgrades up front because it allowed Travelle Wharton to move inside, where he has simply been dominant this year.

If the Panthers were able to rush for 301 yards against the Buccaneers, imagine what they’ll do against Denver’s 30th-ranked rush defense. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart could both eclipse the century mark again, setting up easy throws for the inconsistent Jake Delhomme.

Carolina’s ability to cover could depend on whether or not Delhomme makes crucial errors. Given that he’ll have plenty of time in the pocket (Denver has 23 sacks this year), I can’t imagine him having a terrible game.

RECAP: As mentioned below, I’m not sure how much this game means to Denver. All they need is one win or a San Diego loss in these last three weeks to clinch the AFC West. There’s actually a good chance that could happen by kickoff (I have the Chiefs beating the Chargers.) Carolina, meanwhile, is chasing homefield advantage.

I like the Panthers’ energy coming off a big Monday night victory. Teams coming off Monday night blowouts tend to play pretty well the following week (check out the section of the site if you don’t believe me.) On the other hand, I don’t like Denver’s energy level right now. They could still be flat off their huge upset victory at the Meadowlands two weeks ago. These things tend to linger. Just ask the Jets and Redskins.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Broncos barely have anything to play for. In the next three weeks, they either need one win OR one loss by San Diego to clinch the AFC West. There’s no desperation here. Plus, Denver could still be a bit flat from putting so much energy into that Jets victory. Carolina, meanwhile, will build off the momentum it established with a blowout win on Monday night. Remember, the Panthers have a lot to play for because they’ll capture homefield advantage if they win out.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
I thought more people would be on the Carolina bandwagon. Apparently not.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 58% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Monday Might: John Fox is 3-1 ATS after playing on Monday night.

Broncos are 6-13 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Panthers are 12-21 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.

Panthers are 19-26 ATS at home since 2003.

Jake Delhomme is 12-19 ATS as a home favorite.

Jake Delhomme is 18-10 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Panthers -7.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 45 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Panthers 41, Broncos 27
Panthers -7.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 48 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Panthers 30, Broncos 10

New England Patriots (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-10)
Line: Patriots by 6.5. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Patriots -4.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Patriots -6.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

Injuries: Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), RB Laurence Maroney (IR), OT Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, DE Ty Warren, DE/OLB Adalius Thomas (IR), ILB Tedy Bruschi (IR), CB Terrence Wheatley (IR), S Rodney Harrison (IR), S Tank Williams (IR). Raiders: OUT: FB Justin Griffith (IR), WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR), C Jake Grove, S Tyvon Branch (IR).

Believe it or not, there are still two people left in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I’ll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a picture of the four villains Hiro needs to find, detailed discussion about Episode 12, Our Father , and very hot pictures of Claire. Your hram will grow like big mushroom in mushroom season!

Something happened on Wednesday afternoon to influence my pick regarding this game. I’ll mention it after the matchups.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I was surprised by how poor Oakland’s secondary was against the Chargers. Vincent Jackson burnt both Raider corners on multiple occasions.

This bodes well for the Patriots. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are a very talented duo, and it’s going to be tough for the Raiders to lock down both of them without worrying about Matt Cassel’s running ability and Kevin Faulk coming out of the backfield.

It’ll be the ground game that will be the difference, however. Despite all the billions that Undead Al gave to his defensive tackles recently, the Raiders can’t stop the run. Look for plenty of Sammy Morris and Faulk up the middle.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It looks like JaMarcus Russell will start against the Patriots. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not. If all Oakland does is throw short dump-off passes and run the ball, wouldn’t Andrew Walter be more effective?

New England’s defense is really hurting. If all of their injuries weren’t enough, Tedy Bruschi was placed on IR. Fortunately for the Patriots, Oakland can’t throw the ball deep.

The Patriots can still stop the run and get to the quarterback. The Raiders’ offensive line sucks, so I guess you could say New England matches up well versus Oakland’s offense. Not that that wasn’t obvious in the first place.

RECAP: I was set to take the Raiders earlier in the week. The last time the Patriots stayed out on the West Coast, they were debacled by the Chargers. Then again, San Diego just debacled the Raiders, so that may not mean much.

The big news on Wednesday is that Cassel’s father passed away. Cassel will probably play, though Bill Belichick said “we’re going to take this day by day.”

Remember the last time a quarterback’s father died a few days before a game in Oakland? No one knew how Brett Favre would react five years ago. Well, he came out slinging and had the best first half of his career. But it wasn’t just him – his teammates made sure they hauled in everything he threw. I expect New England’s receivers to play just as hard for their signal caller.

SURVIVAL PICK: This is my survival pick because I still have New England left. This is a pretty tough week. In order, I’d go: Indianapolis, Philadelphia, New England, Carolina, Jets.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
The Raiders just embarrassed themselves on national TV, so they’ll likely be amped for this game. The Patriots, meanwhile, need a win here, but they needed one last week as well and didn’t cover. They stayed on the West Coast earlier in the year on back-to-back Pacific contests and failed in the latter game.

However, it should be noted that Matt Cassel’s father just passed away, so it’s unknown how he will respond.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The most lop-sided bet game of the late afternoon. No surprise here.

Percentage of money on New England: 90% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Raiders are 9-27 ATS at home the previous 36 instances.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Showers, 48 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Patriots 28, Raiders 10
Patriots -6.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 39 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Survival Pick (12-2)
Patriots 49, Raiders 26

New York Giants (11-2) at Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Cowboys -3.
Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Giants.

Injuries: Giants: OUT: QB Anthony Wright (IR), RB Brandon Jacobs*, WR Plaxico Burress, WR David Tyree (IR), DE Osi Umenyiora (IR), ILB Jonathan Goff (IR), S Sammy Knight (IR). Cowboys: OUT: RB Felix Jones (IR), WR Sam Hurd (IR), G Kyle Kosier (IR), CB Pacman Jones, S Roy Williams (IR), P Mat McBriar (IR).

It’s good to know that while he’s shooting himself in the foot (literally and figuratively), Plaxico Burress still has the time to educate the young children of America. The YouTube Video of the Week features Plaxico Burress’ Gun Advice.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: People are down about New York’s loss to the Eagles, but as my former college roommate Dennis said, “The Eagles won, but they beat Giants Lite.” And remember, if Domenik Hixon makes that 85-yard touchdown grab, the Giants take a 7-3 lead and it becomes a totally different game.

The Giants will do what they always do – bounce back with a vengeance. Dallas is playing behind the eight ball a bit because Pacman Jones looks like he’s out for the season. The Cowboys secondary is so banged up that it almost seems impossible to think that Eli Manning will struggle at all.

Look for a big day from Manning and his receivers, who will hopefully catch the ball this time. Meanwhile, Wind and Fire (assuming Earth is unavailable) will pound Dallas’ 16th-ranked rush defense.

DALLAS OFFENSE: It’s December, so we all know what Aurora Snowmo (that’s Tony Romo for those of you who haven’t read my NFL Power Rankings) is going to do. He might play well early, but in the end, it’s going to be the same story all over again. Snowmo will choke this game away.

It hurts Snowmo that Marion Barber could be unavailable. Even if Barber plays, I don’t like his chances. On Page 10 of this week’s USA Today Sports Weekly, you can find out why I don’t like Barber as a fantasy option. One of the reasons is because the Giants are fifth versus the pass.

New York also excels at stopping the pass (8th). The Giants bring tons of pressure, so Snowmo could be running for his life instead of trying to locate his wideouts downfield.

RECAP: Like I said, it’s December, so we all know what’s going to happen. As the starting quarterback of the Cowboys, Snowmo is 4-8 straight up and 1-9-2 against the spread after Nov. 30. That’s taking choking to a whole new level.

Until Snowmo has a great game and leads his team to a victory in the clutch late in the season, I’m going to doubt him.

The fact that the Cowboys are favored here is a joke, by the way. The Giants are the ones who should be laying three.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Giants may have clinched the NFC East, but homefield advantage is still up for grabs. The Cowboys may need a win here, but they’ve often come up short in December. The Giants aren’t going to let their most hated rival into the playoffs easily.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Lots of money now on the Giants after 60-40 action earlier in the week.

Percentage of money on New York: 67% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won the last 2 meetings.

Streaking: Underdogs coming off a loss after a 5+ game winning streak are 8-3 ATS (recent coaching sample).

Winning Coach: Tom Coughlin is 7-3 ATS after losing as a favorite (5-1 ATS as an underdog).

Giants are 20-5 ATS on the road since 2006.

Cowboys are 8-4 ATS after a loss since 2006.

Tony Romo is 1-9 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 62 degrees. STRONG WINDS, 21 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Cowboys 17
Giants +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 46 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Cowboys 20, Giants 8

Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5-1)
Line: Eagles by 16. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Eagles -10.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Eagles -13.5.
Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Injuries: Browns: OUT: QB Brady Quinn (IR), QB Derek Anderson (IR), WR Joe Jurevicius (IR), OT Ryan Tucker (IR), G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR). DOUBTFUL: TE Kellen Winslow Jr.* Eagles: OUT: G Shawn Andrews, G Max Jean-Gilles (IR), CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR).

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 15 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring Chris Farley, Chris Rock and Artie Lang.

Oh, boy! Can’t wait for this matchup! They should just cancel this game and have a Romeo Crennel-Andy Reid Cheeseburger Eating Contest. Oh wait, that’s not going to happen for another five years…

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I don’t know if you can call this unit an “offense.” More like a group of 11 guys who may or may not accidentally convert a first down.

Ken Dorsey is horrible. I mean, he does a few things well. For instance, he gets rid of the ball quickly. Unfortunately, he can’t throw it longer than five yards. It’s a disgrace.

Jamal Lewis, meanwhile, sucks royally as well. Seven yards on seven carries? I don’t care whom you’re playing – you have to do better than that!

Philadelphia’s defense will put the clamps on whatever the Browns try to muster. The Eagles pressure the quarterback well, and rank fifth versus the pass and ninth against the run. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Cleveland failed to convert a single first down in this game.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: After looking like he packed it in, Donovan McNabb has played hard the past two weeks, even running for first downs, which he hasn’t done since early 2002.

That said, I wouldn’t expect as much effort from McNabb here. These are, after all, the Cleveland Clowns.

I think McNabb will come out of the gates a bit sluggishly, probably because he’ll be full from eating a gallon of Chunky Soup, so look for Brian Westbrook to have a big game. Cleveland’s defense is a joke on every level.

RECAP: While some may say the Eagles will overlook this game because they just beat the Cardinals and Giants, and have the Redskins and Cowboys to look forward to, others may declare that isn’t a possibility because Philadelphia needs to win every contest to make the Doggone Playoff.

I would agree with the former argument. In general, football players aren’t very bright (look at the Wonderlic scores and ignorance toward ties for proof) and they’re very cocky. The Eagles have to believe that they can sleepwalk through this contest and still win by three touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Browns, despite their record, are playing very hard. They almost beat the Colts, and they had a cover in their back pocket at Tennessee (also +14) before a very late Chris Johnson touchdown.

I like Cleveland to keep this close. I don’t know how they’re going to do it, but I’d take the points.

MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE: I still like the Browns, and I’m glad to be getting more than two touchdowns now. By the way, I’m hedging my Pyschology Parlay just a bit.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Eagles just played the game of their lives against the Giants. After an “easy victory” against the Cleveland Clowns, they have the Redskins and Giants. That, my friends, is the definition of a Sandwich Situation.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
I’m not sure why the action has leveled out. Who’s crazy enough to pick the Browns?

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 59% (194,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 128-82 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss since 1996 (Romeo Crennel 7-0).

Eagles are 24-16 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Eagles are 10-17 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -14.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 49 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Browns 17
Browns +16 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 39.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Eagles 30, Browns 10

Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
Saints at Bears, Bills at Jets, 49ers at Dolphins, Chargers at Chiefs, Packers at Jaguars, Lions at Colts, Redskins at Bengals, Seahawks at Rams, Titans at Texans, Buccaneers at Falcons

Printable version of Week 15 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Redskins -0.5, Patriots -0.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440

Live Dog: 49ers +220 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Texans +140 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$140

Live Dog: Steelers +115 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$115

Live Dog: Chiefs +210 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Giants +130 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Pyschology Parlay: Chiefs +6, Lions +17, Texans +3, Falcons -3, Panthers -7.5, Browns +14 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

Parlay Hedge: Eagles -15 -125 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units)

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2024): 1-1 (-$225)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2024): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2024): 1-0 (+$500)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2024): 1-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2024): -$615

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,445)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-137-12, 51.6% (-$3,000)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 39-45-1, 46.4% (-$1,590)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-25-2, 53.7% (+$855)
2024 Season Over-Under: 141-137-6, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$810

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,554-3,280-208, 52.0% (+$19,140)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,141-1,027-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 581-509-27 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,987-2,962-80 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 48-37-1 (56.7%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 7-9	Bears: 7-9	Bucs: 9-9	49ers: 11-6
Eagles: 11-9	Lions: 14-4	Falcons: 10-6	Cardinals: 11-6
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 12-5	Panthers: 7-10	Rams: 8-11
Redskins: 9-10	Vikings: 6-10	Saints: 7-10	Seahawks: 8-7

Bills: 11-10	Bengals: 4-12	Colts: 8-8	Broncos: 11-7
Dolphins: 8-9	Browns: 8-9	Jaguars: 5-9	Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 10-7	Ravens: 10-8	Texans: 8-9	Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-5	Steelers: 8-9	Titans: 8-8	Raiders: 8-8

Divisional: 46-55 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 35-26 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 50-45 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 32-47 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 63-76 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 15-15 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 22-23 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 5-10 (2011-23: 33-37)

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