NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 8-8 (-$55)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2018): 5-5 (-$250)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Detroit Lions (1-2)
Line: Browns by 1.5.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

Hue Jackson, who has grown an appreciation for winning in the preseason, stated that Baker Mayfield will play quite a bit in the preseason finale. The Browns should be able to win this game as a result, as Detroit’s backup quarterbacks are terrible.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Hue Jackson is 6-9 in preseason games.

Hue Jackson is 1-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Matt Patricia is 1-2 in preseason games.

Matt Patricia is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Lions 10
Browns -1.5 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$300

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 2.5.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

Jameis Winston won’t play in the finale, but that’s OK because the Buccaneers still have Ryan Griffin. It seems as though Griffin is way better than any signal-caller who will take the field in this game, so I like the Buccaneers a bit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Doug Marrone is 7-9 in preseason games.

Doug Marrone is 1-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Dirk Koetter is 5-5 in preseason games.

Dirk Koetter is 0-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 17, Jaguars 13
Buccaneers -2.5 -105 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$105

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-3)
Line: Pick.
Thursday, 8:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

I don’t understand why the Titans are favored. Mike Vrabel has shown no desire to win in the preseason, while Mike Zimmer loves racking up wins in August. Zimmer also possessed the superior quarterbacks, as Trevor Siemian and Kyle Sloter are both superior compared to Blaine Gabbert and Luke Falk.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 16-4 in preseason games.

Mike Zimmer is 2-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Mike Vrabel is 0-3 in preseason games.

Mike Vrabel is 0-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Titans 10
Vikings PK +100 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$300

Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
Line: Chiefs by 3.5.
Thursday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I’ve added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It’s why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

Neither coach likes to win the preseason finale, but the Packers are worth a look at +3.5 (or +3 +105 at Bookmaker). They have the superior talents at quarterback, while the Chiefs will be going with the pedestrian Chad Henne and the anemic Matt McGloin. Chase Litton does give me some pause, but I like getting the hook or positive juice on +3. I’d rather have +3.5 in the regular season, but three isn’t as much of a key number in the preseason because there are fewer second-half ties, so I’ll take +3 +105 here.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike McCarthy is 28-22 in preseason games.

Mike McCarthy is 5-7 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Andy Reid in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 37-42 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Packers 17, Chiefs 16
Packers +3 +105 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$100

San Angeles Chargers (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Line: 49ers by 3.
Thursday, 10:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Anthony Lynn is just 2-5 in the preseason, but Kyle Shanahan doesn’t have a much better record. I think Lynn possesses the superior backup quarterbacks. I know Geno Smith looked awful last week, but he has been much better in the previous two exhibition games. I think he can bounce back. The positive juice on +3 looks more appealing than +3.5, as three isn’t as much of a key number in the preseason.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Anthony Lynn is 2-5 in preseason games.

Anthony Lynn is 1-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Kyle Shanahan is 3-4 in preseason games.

Kyle Shanahan is 1-2 in Preseason Week 4 games.

Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: 49ers 15, Chargers 14
Chargers +3 +105 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker/5Dimes — Correct; +$105

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2024): 1-1 (-$225)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2024): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2024): 1-0 (+$500)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2024): 1-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2024): -$615

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,445)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-137-12, 51.6% (-$3,000)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 39-45-1, 46.4% (-$1,590)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-25-2, 53.7% (+$855)
2024 Season Over-Under: 141-137-6, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$810

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,554-3,280-208, 52.0% (+$19,140)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,141-1,027-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 581-509-27 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,987-2,962-80 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 48-37-1 (56.7%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 7-9	Bears: 7-9	Bucs: 9-9	49ers: 11-6
Eagles: 11-9	Lions: 14-4	Falcons: 10-6	Cardinals: 11-6
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 12-5	Panthers: 7-10	Rams: 8-11
Redskins: 9-10	Vikings: 6-10	Saints: 7-10	Seahawks: 8-7

Bills: 11-10	Bengals: 4-12	Colts: 8-8	Broncos: 11-7
Dolphins: 8-9	Browns: 8-9	Jaguars: 5-9	Chargers: 11-6
Jets: 10-7	Ravens: 10-8	Texans: 8-9	Chiefs: 6-11
Patriots: 10-5	Steelers: 8-9	Titans: 8-8	Raiders: 8-8

Divisional: 46-55 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 35-26 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 50-45 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 32-47 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 63-76 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 15-15 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 22-23 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 5-10 (2011-23: 33-37)

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