NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2010): 8-6 (+$260)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2010): 4-9-1 (-$1,865)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2010): 8-6 (+$1,080)

NFL Picks (2010): 61-55-3 (+$2,475)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 1, 4:40 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Bengals -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Bengals -1.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Week 7 Recap: I read tons of e-mails last week from people telling me that they enjoyed the hate mail I received after a dreadful Week 6. Well, sorry to disappoint all of you, but I didn’t get a single piece of hate mail after this past Sunday’s slate of games. I went 8-6 against the spread for a profit of +$1,080. I also missed my parlay of the week by only one game. The stupid Bears killed themselves with too many turnovers, but I guess I should have anticipated that.

Anyway, it’s the usual – my NFL Picks will be posted periodically throughout Tuesday afternoon and evening. You can follow me on Twitter @walterfootball to receive updates for when I post each selection.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Don’t be fooled by Carson Palmer’s gaudy stats. The former No. 1 overall pick threw for 412 yards at Atlanta on Sunday. However, most of that came in garbage time against a Falcons prevent defense that had trouble tackling Cincinnati’s wideouts. The Bengal receivers deserve all of the credit for Palmer’s outstanding fantasy day.

Palmer faces yet another poor secondary – the Dolphins are 27th against the pass and can’t tackle either – but it won’t matter because he won’t be able to produce anything while the game is close. He’s done.

The Dolphins’ defense matches up well against the Bengals because they can contain Cincinnati’s strength; Miami is 12th against the run, so like last week, Cedric Benson will struggle to find running room.

MIAMI OFFENSE: While the Dolphins excel against the run, the Bengals are very weak in that department. They’re ranked 25th there, having just allowed 148 yards on 29 carries to the Falcons.

With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams presumably gashing Cincinnati’s defense, Chad Henne will have plenty of short-yardage and play-action opportunities against the Bengals’ two great corners. Not that Henne needs the extra time in the pocket; Cincinnati has just six sacks on the year, and lost Antwan Odom to suspension.

RECAP: This is a really tough spot for the Dolphins. They put everything into that Steelers game last week, and unjustly came up just a bit short. I don’t know how they’re going to muster the energy to play this crappy Bengals team.

So, does that mean I’m taking Cincinnati? Not a chance. This Bengals team absolutely sucks, and has been overrated by both the public and (subsequently) the oddsmakers all year. I can’t lay points with them, especially amid a losing streak; Marvin Lewis is just 1-5 against the spread when favored after suffering two or more defeats.

I can’t recommend betting this game. With a gun to my head, I’d take the visitor.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Dolphins put everything into that Steelers game. I can’t see them getting up for the crappy-looking Bengals.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

“The Bengals are favored? I’m taking the underdog!”

Percentage of money on Miami: 72% (133,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

False Favorite: Marvin Lewis is 1-5 ATS as a favorite after losing 2+ games.

Tony Sparano is 14-5 ATS on the road.

Bengals are 6-18 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 53 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Bengals 23
Dolphins +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 22, Bengals 14

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-5)
Line: Cowboys by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Cowboys -10.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Cowboys -3 (Kitna).

Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Vegas Recap: This was close to an even week for Vegas. They went 3-3 with their publicly bet games; the Dolphins, Bills and Panthers won some money for the house, but the Chiefs, Seahawks and Patriots were winners for the public.

Still, 3-3 with the juice in hand is a winning week. This means that Vegas has taken money away from casual bettors in six of seven weeks this year. There are numerous shady spreads this upcoming Sunday, so maybe the books are making an effort to give back to the disgruntled public.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Speaking of strange lines, this is definitely one of them. How is Jon Kitna favored by 6.5 over anyone? Not that I think Kitna is terrible or anything – he received no reps during the week so it’s hard to judge him right now – but he looked dreadful on a national stage Monday night. Will the public really bet Dallas to win by a touchdown?

Maybe – Jacksonville sucks. The Jaguars’ secondary is such a joke that they’ve made Kerry Collins and Matt Cassel look like Pro Bowlers the past two weeks. They’re ranked dead last against the pass, so Kitna should have a good game with all of his talented weapons.

Of course, Kitna may not even need to throw because Jacksonville can’t stop the rush either, ranking 24th against it. The Cowboys don’t usually run the ball well, but this game could be an exception.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: David Garrard figures to be back, which means more sloth-like play from the Jaguars’ soft, fat quarterback. Along with Jack Del Rio, Garrard is part of the reason this Jacksonville team usually plays dreadfully; he has no heart or desire to win.

Dallas’ defense just gave up big chunks of yardage to Eli Manning, but Garrard stinks and won’t be able to engineer consistent drives. He’ll take a couple of sacks with DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff breathing down his neck.

Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs just trampled this Cowboys defense, so Maurice Jones-Drew owners could be excited about the prospect of a breakout game from their RB1. I wouldn’t count on it. Aside from that Monday night disaster, Dallas has been pretty solid against the run this year; I blame the team’s ineptness versus New York on the fact that the Cowboys were deflated after watching Romo suffer what could be a season-ending injury.

RECAP: It’s time to rally around Jon Kitna. As we’ve seen this year, good teams play well when their starting quarterback is out. With a full week’s worth of practice reps, Kitna will be much better against Jacksonville.

But here’s the question – are the Cowboys are a good team? Based on talent alone, they’re in the top five. But Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett are morons. There’s a strong possibility that with Romo out, this Dallas squad could pack it in, knowing it has no chance of coming back from 1-5 without its starting quarterback. It’s not like Phillips can motivate the team or anything.

I’m taking the Cowboys because the Jaguars are a disgrace, but as with the Miami-Cincinnati game, I can’t recommend putting any money on this unbettable contest.

I hate starting off the week with two zero-unit wagers, but there will be at least six multi-unit picks this week. I promise.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

Time to rally around Jon Kitna.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
People are betting on the Jaguars over the Cowboys? Hell has frozen over.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 62% (130,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Jaguars are 4-1 ATS going into the bye since 2005.

Jaguars are 4-9 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 6-19 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Cowboys 31, Jaguars 20
Cowboys -6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 35, Cowboys 17

Washington Redskins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Redskins -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Redskins -3.

Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. As mentioned above, no hate mail this week. Instead, here’s a hilarious e-mail from Seth M:

Thought you would have a bit of a chuckle at this NFL.com chat question:

“HI vic who do you think should stay starter for browns i say Delhomme hes healthy young and good”

Apparently, Jake Delhomme is young compared to Colt McCoy, and I guess he doesnt know about Delhomme’s son’s kidnappers :p

That’s one of the funniest things I’ve ever read. Seriously, what is wrong with the people on NFL.com? Are they all brain-dead or something? Delhomme’s not healthy, not young and not good. That’s 0-for-3, bub. Time to start liking a new sport.

2. When I had a bad week, all I received was hate mail. I guess I should consider myself fortunate because it could have been a lot worse…

If you’ve never heard of Brandon Lang, he’s a professional handicapper, meaning he sells his picks for money. Two for the Money, a movie starring Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey, was based on Lang. Lang would go on to start a Web site called BrandonLang.com.

Things aren’t going so well for Lang right now. In fact, as e-mailer Chad N. pointed out, Lang was fired from his own Web site for making crappy picks!

Like I said, I’m very fortunate to only receive hate mail. Since I’m my own boss, it would suck extra hard if I fired myself.

3. If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you probably know that people have plagiarized my Web site in the past (click on the link for details.)

Well, it’s happening again. As Dr Lukic pointed out on the forums, two major Web sites are copying my picks word-for-word.

Hmm… I wonder how much hate mail these guys have received after Week 6…

DETROIT OFFENSE: The big news here is that Matthew Stafford is back. I loved Stafford going into the year, and he’s a major reason that I predicted that Detroit would win nine games. Unfortunately, they never had a chance because Stafford suffered a shoulder injury in the opener.

Stafford should have a solid first performance back. The Redskins are actually on pace to allow the most passing yards in NFL history; they’ve surrendered at least 235 passing yards to every opponent this season. And unlike Jay Cutler, Stafford isn’t going to make dumb throws to DeAngelo Hall.

As bad as Washington’s pass defense is, the team actually ranks worse versus the run. With Stafford under center, things should really open up for Jahvid Best.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Unfortunately for the Lions, they don’t have the defense to match their awesome offense. They can get after the quarterback (15 sacks in six games), but they suck against both the run (30th) and pass (23rd).

Ryan Torain has looked great for the Redskins. He trampled the Bears’ solid stop unit, and shouldn’t have any problem repeating that feat against the dreadful Lions.

Detroit consequently will have trouble bringing down Donovan McNabb. In addition to the fact that McNabb will be in favorable down-and-distance situations all afternoon, he also has the ability to scramble out of any sort of pressure.

RECAP: I don’t understand why the Lions are favored. Conspiracy theorists will speculate that Vegas is trying to bait the public into taking the Redskins, but the books have done so well this year that they don’t need to con bettors out of any extra money right now.

I’m taking the Redskins for a couple of units. I like the fact that they’re underdogs in their second-consecutive road game, which is usually a good spot for most teams. And unless this matchup is fixed, we’re getting great line value with Washington simply because the team didn’t look too sharp in a predictable flat spot at Chicago last week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

“The Lions are favored? I’m taking the underdog!”

Percentage of money on Washington: 66% (152,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Donovan McNabb is 41-26 ATS on the road since 2001.

Redskins are 8-19 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Lions are 2-7 ATS as favorites since 2006.

Opening Line: Lions -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Lions 24
Redskins +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 37, Redskins 25

Buffalo Bills (0-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Chiefs -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Chiefs -9.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

More random NFL notes:

4. My first thought when Brett Favre injured his ankle during his first interception at Green Bay: “He’s gotta be faking this. Like it’s just some excuse for the pick, right?”

My second thought: Favre should send a picture of his ankle to Jenn Sterger so she can kissy-kissy and make it all better.

5. Hilarious Facebook message from Ramsey B:

Hey Walt. I hope the head Official that made that horrific call against the Dolphins dies of gonorrhea and rots in Hell. At the end of the play Alama Francis recovered the fumble in the end zone. I lost a s***load of money because of that call. I hope the official goes home to see his wife getting gang raped by a bunch of Somali Pirates. I hope you feel the same.

I agree. Well, not with the death or gang rape, but the call was completely bogus. The Dolphins made a clear recovery of the football, and they should have won the game.

6. This is one is about college football, but it’s anti-BCS, which should always be a topic of conversation.

CBS play-by-play announcer Verne Lunquist is my new hero. During the Auburn-LSU telecast, Lundquist said, “Here’s how I would fix the BCS – a couple of sticks of dynamite.”

Unfortunately, color commentator Gary Danielson disagreed: “I think the BCS has served its purpose well.”

Idiots like you make me want to vomit, Gary. Sure, the BCS system is better than what we had before, but it still stinks. It’s like going out with Rosie O’Donnell once, and then dating her a second time when she’s five pounds lighter. The five pounds are irrelevant because you’re still in danger of being eaten on the second date.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: And so the Ryan Fitzpatrick craze begins. I’ve been getting e-mails and Facebook wall posts about how Fitzpatrick is awesome, and that I should change Buffalo’s pick in my 2011 NFL Mock Draft.

Two words: Tyler Thigpen. Chan Gailey did this with Thigpen in Kansas City two years ago, and he’s once again turning a pedestrian quarterback in a fantasy machine. Fitzpatrick has a noodle arm and will never be able to lead the Bills deep into the playoffs, but he’s just good enough in this system to put up points against weak and lethargic defenses.

Kansas City’s stop unit overall isn’t weak or lethargic, but the secondary isn’t very good, ranking just 17th against the pass. In fact, Todd Bouman played pretty well last week, which makes me believe that Fitzpatrick will once again be able to engineer scoring drives throughout the afternoon.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: What’s up with the Chiefs playing crappy run defenses since the bye? In Week 4, it was the Colts (30th). After that, the DeMeco Ryans-less Texans (20th). Last week, they went against the Jaguars (24th). Now, the 27th-ranked Bills come to town.

Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles will once again post great numbers, opening up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for the safe, but unspectacular Matt Cassel. The Bills rank 29th against the pass anyway, so it’s not like Cassel needs much help in this matchup.

RECAP: I really like the Bills here for a few reasons:

1. Kansas City’s offense is not consistent enough to be laying more than a touchdown. I know the Chiefs just covered as big favorites, but the Jaguars don’t give a damn unless they’re playing the Colts.

2. The Bills are really frisky and just took the Ravens into overtime. Even if they’re down double digits, they have the passing offense to get a backdoor cover.

3. Buffalo is playing its second-consecutive road game as an underdog. As I wrote earlier, this is a good spot for most teams. The Bills covered at New England in this situation earlier in the year.

4. Teams with three or more consecutive losses are usually good bets on the road, owning a 92-69 spread record in the past decade.

SURVIVOR PICK: After much deliberation, I’ve decided to take the Chiefs as my Survivor Pick for these reasons:

1. I’m not taking the Cowboys because there’s a chance they could quit now that they’re 1-5 and without Tony Romo. Yes, Jacksonville is an embarrassment to the NFL, but if Dallas doesn’t try, it won’t have any sort of edge over the equally lazy Jaguars.

2. I’m not taking the Rams because there’s something up with that shady point spread. Why is it only -3? Does Vegas know something we don’t? Is Steven Jackson not going to play? If the line were -6, I’d probably take St. Louis.

3. The Chiefs are the highest of the three teams in my NFL Power Rankings, so I guess I’m following one of my rules in taking the best team.

4. If the Chiefs lose, I’ll at least have won four units because that means the Bills would have covered the spread. I’ll also be picking Buffalo on the moneyline later in the week as insurance.

I was asked to list six possible survivor options each week, so here they are, from best to worst: Patriots (used them in Week 1), Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams, Chargers and Jets. As always, never pick a road team. Never pick a bad team. Never pick an underdog. Never save any teams. Always choose the best option.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Seventy-percent lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 71% (144,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Chiefs are 20-10 ATS in October since 2002.

Chiefs are 9-17 ATS at home since 2007 (3-0 in 2010).

Chiefs are 1-6 ATS as favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Chiefs 31, Bills 27
Bills +7 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (7-0)
Chiefs 13, Bills 10

Carolina Panthers (1-5) at St. Louis Rams (3-4)
Line: Rams by 2.5. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Rams -7.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Rams -6.

Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition:

Dearest,how are you doing?With due respect,it will be of a great pleasure to me to have a relationship with you that will construct a mutual understanding between us.I believe you are responsible and well respected.kndly reply to my mail and i will tell you about myself and as well send my photos to you.

Thanks
joy

I’m responsible and well-respected? Really? Well, with due respect, Joy, if you wanna smoosh, go creepin’ somewheres else! Ya garbage, you know that? Ya cabbage! Ya got cabbage in your muff! You got f***in’ cabbage in ya muff!

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: This is one of the shady point spreads I referenced earlier. In what alternate universe are the Panthers and Rams equal teams this year? Perhaps the dimension where Jimmy Clausen went No. 1 overall in the 2010 NFL Draft? Zing!

Sam Bradford is the real deal. He’s struggled a bit on the road, but has played very well at home. Carolina is third against the pass, but that’s only because four of the quarterbacks they’ve played are Alex Smith (and David Carr), Todd (Tom) Collins, Carson Palmer and Josh Freeman, who was coming off a broken thumb at the time. The Panthers don’t have any sort of pass rush (nine sacks in six games), so Bradford will have all the time in the world to torch Carolina’s sorry secondary.

The only concern for the Rams’ offense is the status of Steven Jackson. Jackson just had finger surgery, but Adam Schefter reports that the stud running back is expected to play.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Matt Moore looked great in the second half of the San Francisco game on Sunday, but the 49ers are dreadful. I know it’s hard to believe, but the Rams sport a better defense.

St. Louis has a whopping 20 sacks this year, 15 of which have come since Week 4. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-most sacks in the NFL this year (second-most among teams that have had byes thus far), which is not good news for Moore, who has to deal with St. Louis’ seventh-ranked secondary.

The Rams’ defensive weakness is against the run – they’re 23rd – but the Panthers have struggled to move the chains on the ground against everyone this year; DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart simply have nowhere to move without right tackle Jeff Otah in the lineup.

RECAP: I still can’t get over this point spread, but as I wrote earlier, Vegas is up so much this year that they don’t need to fix any games right now.

The Rams are the play for me. They’ve been great as hosts this year, defeating the Chargers, 4-2 Seahawks and 4-3 Redskins. Their only home loss was in the season opener against Arizona, which is excusable because Bradford was making his first start.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Everyone is betting on the Rams despite this shady point spread.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 67% (131,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Panthers are 36-26 ATS as an underdog the previous 62 instances.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 36.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Rams 23, Panthers 10
Rams -2.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 20, Panthers 10 MISSING

Green Bay Packers (4-3) at New York Jets (5-1)
Line: Jets by 6. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Jets -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Jets -3.

Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Jets.

In addition to an E-mail of the Week, I’m also going to post a Video of the Week. Many of you who are into politics may have seen this video already (thanks to Awesome Kelly in Arizona for sending it over.) If not, check out how this fat lady politician doesn’t understand that Arizona borders Mexico.

People who are adamant about something they have no freaking clue about are bad enough. A politician guilty of this is so much worse. Seriously, this is why America is going down the crapper. Idiots like this slob are the ones making decisions for us. Perhaps if she didn’t get crumbs all over her map, she would have noticed that Arizona’s entire southern border is connected to Mexico.

I just wish we could have seen her face at the 1:07 mark, though she may have been thinking about what she’s going to have for her fifth lunch instead of listening to that old geezer.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers didn’t have his best game against the Vikings – seriously, what was up with those back-shoulder throws? – but a very encouraging thing came out of the victory for the Packers: Their pass protection was great.

A healthy Chad Clifton and emerging Bryan Bulaga will have their hands full against the Jets, who have more than double the sacks Minnesota has this season. More importantly, Rodgers will have to figure out Rex Ryan’s chaotic blitz schemes. Rodgers is a pretty smart guy, so I have faith in him.

The bad news for Green Bay, however, is that Darrelle Revis declared himself “100 percent.” With Jermichael Finley out, and Greg Jennings and a hobbled Donald Driver smothered by Revis and Antonio Cromartie, whom is Rodgers going to throw to?

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Packers barely had any bodies to use up front against the Vikings. Minnesota’s offensive line sucks, so it wasn’t a huge deal on Sunday night. The Jets, however, sport one of the top fronts in the NFL. If Green Bay can’t solve this problem quickly, they’re really going to be in trouble this weekend.

Fortunately for the Packers, they’ll probably have Ryan Pickett back from an ankle injury. That’s just what the doctor ordered for a team that has surrendered 299 rushing yards in the past two games.

Al Harris and Atari Bigby will also be present for the first time. Every little bit helps against the Jets’ forceful offense that features an inconsistent passing attack.

RECAP: The Jets seem to have the advantage, but if handicapping games were as easy as looking at the matchups, Ron Jaworski would be 90 percent against the spread and soliciting degenerate gamblers for his amazing picks.

I actually like the Packers to cover. Aside from the fact that this is a much more meaningful game for Green Bay, the Packers get the check mark here because the Jets are in a poor spot. Believe it or not, teams with five or more consecutive victories are just 26-42 against the spread at home since 2002. I also like getting Rodgers as an underdog (6-3 ATS).

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
Big game for both teams. It means a bit more to the Packers.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
The money went on the Jets over the weekend.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (166,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Teams with five or more consecutive victories are just 26-42 against the spread at home since 2002.

Packers are 23-12 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Aaron Rodgers is 6-3 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Jets -5.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 54 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Jets 26, Packers 24
Packers +6 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 9, Jets 0

Denver Broncos (2-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-6)
Line: 49ers by 2.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Pick (Alex Smith).
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Broncos -4 (no Alex Smith).

Sunday, Oct. 31, 1:00 ET
At Wembley Stadium, London
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Once again, I’m now in the same fantasy football league as Bo-Bo. If you don’t know who Bo-Bo is, he’s quite possibly the worst fantasy player in the history of the universe. Here was the team he drafted last year:

QB: Trent Edwards (6th-round pick); RB1: Michael Turner; RB2: Frank Gore; WR1: Terrell Owens; WR2: Kevin Curtis; WR3: Joey Galloway; TE: Chris Cooley; DEF: Minnesota; K: David Akers (12th-round pick).

Great news – our 0-13 dream season for Bo-Bo is still alive! Bo-Bo is now 0-7. His No. 2 receiver, Kevin Walter, was on a bye, so Bo-Bo was obviously hurting this week. Here’s a screen shot of the result (when you look at the score, keep in mind that I won my fantasy matchup in this league, 130-121.)

The worst fantasy football player ever

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Getting right to the news (or lack thereof), it’s unclear if Alex Smith will play. His left arm is in a sling, and he won’t practice Wednesday. It’s beginning to look like David Carr will start – which is not good news for the 49ers.

Though the Broncos have a dodgy (that’s for you, Brits) secondary ranked 24th against the pass, Carr is disgustingly awful. There’s no reason he should be on an NFL roster at this point, and it’s a crime that Mike Singletary isn’t giving the physically talented Nate Davis a chance.

The bloody good news for the 49ers is that Frank Gore should be able to piece together a great game. Denver’s run defense is even dodgier (is that even a word?) than its secondary, giving up 4.8 yards per carry.

DENVER OFFENSE: I can’t understand why the Bronco fans would chant “We want Tebow!” during last week’s blowout. I know the Raiders were embarrassing Denver, but it wasn’t Orton’s fault. He is, after all, on pace to throw for about 5,000 yards this season.

San Francisco’s pass defense is downright disgraceful (not sure what the British word for disgraceful is – e-mailer Chris W. says “bloody awful.”) The 49ers rank 22nd against the pass, and have two or fewer sacks in five of seven games this year. Orton should revert to fantasy stud mode this Sunday.

Unlike the 49ers, the Broncos won’t be able to run the ball effectively; outside of one game, San Francisco hasn’t surrendered more than 100 rushing yards to any opponent this season.

RECAP: I really don’t know what to do with this matchup. Both of these teams are playing so dreadfully right now.

On one hand, the Broncos make sense because teams that lose the point spread by 25 or more points are usually a great bet.

On the other hand, Mike Singletary is undefeated (4-0) against the number when coming off a loss as a favorite. And speaking of favorites, teams laying points after surrendering 50-plus are 1-4 against the spread (though the Broncos went from -1 to pick on Tuesday afternoon.)

If you live in England and desperately want to bet this game, I’d side with the Broncos. But that’s just a lean. Whether you’re talking dollars or pounds, I wouldn’t put any money on either of these miserable teams.

THURSDAY UPDATE: Troy Smith will start. I don’t feel any differently about this pick; I’d still take Denver if I had to, but I wouldn’t bet the game.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

The Broncos were just humiliated and will be looking to redeem themselves.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Slight action on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 63% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Broncos are 9-15 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Mike Singletary is 4-0 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Possible showers, 53 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, 49ers 17
Broncos +2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 24, Broncos 16

Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games
Titans at Chargers, Buccaneers at Cardinals, Vikings at Patriots, Seahawks at Raiders, Steelers at Saints, Texans at Colts

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 17

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 16

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 4-2 (+$390)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 15, 2024): 1-1 (-$30)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 15, 2024): 10-5-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 15, 2024): +$570

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 117-109-9, 51.8% (-$3,210)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 29-37-1, 43.9% (-$2,035)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22, 53.2% (+$475)
2024 Season Over-Under: 111-108-5, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$990

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,538-3,261-205, 52.0% (+$18,460)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,136-1,022-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 578-507-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,970-2,942-79 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-7	Bears: 6-7	Bucs: 8-6	49ers: 8-6
Eagles: 8-6	Lions: 11-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 10-4
Giants: 5-8	Packers: 10-3	Panthers: 5-9	Rams: 7-7
Redskins: 6-7	Vikings: 6-7	Saints: 6-8	Seahawks: 8-5

Bills: 6-8	Bengals: 3-11	Colts: 7-7	Broncos: 9-5
Dolphins: 6-8	Browns: 5-9	Jaguars: 5-7	Chargers: 7-6
Jets: 8-6	Ravens: 7-6	Texans: 6-7	Chiefs: 5-8
Patriots: 8-4	Steelers: 7-7	Titans: 8-5	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 28-35 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 25-20 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 40-36 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 26-37 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 46-64 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-10 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-20 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)