2011 NFL Mock Draft

Last update: Thursday, April 28, 2011, 3:30 PM. Final update.
Next update: Thurs evening. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

This 2011 NFL Mock Draft order is based on the official 2011 NFL Draft Order.

Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
This selection is pretty much locked in. No, the Panthers haven’t announced whom they are going to take, but Adam Schefter reported Wednesday afternoon that Jerry Richardson “loves” Cam Newton. That pretty much seals the deal.

This ties into what Ron Rivera told Warren Moon, Newton’s mentor, about a month ago. Rivera said he was “convinced” Newton is worthy of the No. 1 pick.

“I’ve seen all I need to see as far as him throwing a football,” Rivera said. “I’m already convinced.”

Moon then told USA Today that he believes that the Panthers have “locked onto” Newton. This matches what all of the Panthers beat writers have been predicting all along.

I’ll be posting Live Individual 2011 NFL Draft Grades minutes after each pick is made in the 2011 NFL Draft. I’ve already graded this selection.

Anyway, I’ll have more 2011 NFL Draft and 2012 NFL Draft updates posted soon. Follow me on Twitter @walterfootball for any news and info.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

None.

MISSING
Denver Broncos: Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
Josh McDaniels couldn’t draft to save his life. In 2009, he selected a 4-3 player to star in his 3-4. Robert Ayers predictably flopped.

Two years later, it’s almost as if McDaniels is still making decisions for this team. I don’t understand why the Broncos are going to pick Von Miller for their new 4-3. Miller’s best quality is rushing the passer, but he’s not going to be able to do that on first and second down. He’s also going to have to learn a brand new position.

Unfortunately for Broncos fans, it appears as though John Elway and company have decided on Miller. Elway won’t be fired in two years, but it doesn’t appear as though he’s off to a good start.

I’ve already graded Miller to the Broncos in the Live Individual 2011 NFL Draft Grades.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Marcell Dareus, DT – Maybe the Broncos will realize that Marcell Dareus is the right choice.

2. Patrick Peterson, CB – I’m listing Patrick Peterson because he’s the best player available. However, Denver has its starting cornerbacks in place, and spending the No. 2 selection on a player at that position isn’t very smart.
Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, DE/DT, Alabama
Assuming the Panthers pick Cam Newton, this pick will come down to Marcell Dareus and Von Miller. If the Broncos select Miller, it’ll be Dareus, and vice versa.

Buffalo really needs to upgrade its defensive front. Having major experience in a 3-4, Dareus will be able to step in right away and improve a pedestrian defense.

I’ve already graded Dareus to the Bills in the Live Individual 2011 NFL Draft Grades.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Von Miller, DE/OLB – If the Broncos are smart enough to take Dareus, Miller will be the pick.
Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com, a reliable source, thinks this is going to be an offensive draft for Cincinnati. This makes sense, since the offense is undergoing a complete makeover. The Bengals have a new offensive coordinator. Terrell Owens is gone. Chad Ochocinco will probably be traded. Cedric Benson’s a free agent. And Carson Palmer has vowed never to set foot in Paul Brown Stadium again.

Jay Gruden has always had a big, athletic receiver in his UFL offenses. If he sticks with his strategy in the NFL, he’d like to have A.J. Green as his No. 1 wideout.

Green is an elite receiving prospect on the same level as Larry Fitzgerald, so he and the Bengals seem like a perfect fit. And don’t pay attention to his low Wonderlic score (10). Roddy White notched a 4 on his Wonderlic, and I don’t think the Falcons regret drafting him.

I’ve already graded Green to the Bengals in the Live Individual 2011 NFL Draft Grades.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Blaine Gabbert, QB – It appears as though Blaine Gabbert will be available. Mike Brown still wants to bring Carson Palmer back though, and spending the No. 4 pick on a quarterback would offend Palmer. Plus, I don’t think Brown is willing to spend tons of money on both Gabbert and Palmer. Green is the favorite.
Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Blaine Gabbert is a popular pick here, but as I’ve been saying since the dawn of time, I really would be shocked if Arizona spent this selection on a quarterback for the following reasons:

1. It’s much more likely that Ken Whisenhunt will sign a veteran like Donovan McNabb or Marc Bulger (or trade for Kevin Kolb, per Larry Fitzgerald’s request), and have that signal-caller compete with John Skelton next year. Whisenhunt would be foolish to offend Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald recently said he “doubts” that Arizona will take a quarterback in this spot. That means one of two things. Either Fitzgerald has inside info, or he’s warning the front office that he’s going to leave if they bring in another unproven signal-caller.

2. New regimes mean new quarterbacks; not old ones that could be on the hot seat in the wake of another poor season. Following a 5-11 campaign, there’s too much pressure on Whisenhunt to win now.

3. None of the Cardinal beat writers think the team is going to draft Gabbert. They realize that the pick doesn’t make any sense, given Arizona’s situation.

As for Patrick Peterson, he’s the best player available who fills a need for the Cardinals. Some mocks have Peterson slipping down all the way to No. 7. I personally think that’s crazy. Peterson is the best player in this class. He’s the top cornerback prospect since Champ Bailey (1999). He’s good enough to go first overall. I don’t know how someone can figure that six teams will pass on him.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Von Miller or Robert Quinn, DE/OLB – Von Miller will be the pick if he’s available. If not, Robert Quinn is the other pass-rushing option.

2. Blaine Gabbert, QB – Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe all the Cardinal beat writers are wrong. Maybe Larry Fitzgerald is wrong. But I doubt it.
Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
If I were to guess, I’d say Cleveland’s big board looks like this (I’m excluding Marcell Dareus and Von Miller because they definitely won’t be available):

1. A.J. Green
2. Patrick Peterson
3a. Julio Jones
3b. Robert Quinn

It’s very close between Quinn and Jones. I had the former here in a previous update, but Quinn is too much of a risk. Not only did he miss the entire 2010 season; the tumor in his brain could worry the Browns enough to push them toward Jones.

With Colt McCoy entrenched as the franchise quarterback, the Browns need to provide him with a blue-chip weapon. Julio Jones, drawing some comparisons to Terrell Owens, would be a great fit in Cleveland because of his run-blocking ability. Adam Schefter tweeted last Saturday that he believes this selection will be used on a receiver.

Jones had an incredible performance in Indianapolis, running a 4.39 and leaping an 11-foot-3 broad jump despite suffering through a fractured foot. He’s drawn comparisons to Terrell Owens and Hines Ward. The occasional drop is an issue, but he’s a terrific player otherwise.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. A.J. Green, WR – If the Bengals don’t take A.J. Green, the Browns will.

2. Robert Quinn, DE – Defensive end is a huge need for the Browns, who don’t have much 4-3 personnel.

3. Patrick Peterson, CB – If Green is off the board and Peterson’s available, Peterson has to be the guy. I don’t care that the Browns just used the No. 7 selection on Joe Haden; Peterson is just too good to pass up.
San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
This pick has haunted me for the past five months. I’ve had Marcell Dareus, Robert Quinn, Blaine Gabbert, Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara slotted here at some point since December. Lately, it’s been Gabbert and Quinn, but I’m changing it back to Prince Amukamara.

I trust Matt Maiocco of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. He knows his stuff when it comes to the 49ers. He mocked Prince Amukamara here in his final 2011 NFL Mock Draft, so I’m going to take the easy way out and copy him.

In all seriousness, I found one of Maiocco’s tweets pretty revealing: “Bill Parcells and 49ers GM Baalke are very close. Parcells has CB Prince Amukamara rated higher than Patrick Peterson.”

Maiocco has also been saying that he doesn’t believe Jim Harbaugh is in love with Blaine Gabbert. This matches Mike Lombardi’s report that San Francisco is “lukewarm” on Gabbert.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Robert Quinn, DE/OLB – The 49ers need help rushing the passer, and Robert Quinn could be the best player available.

2. Blaine Gabbert, QB – Maybe Harbaugh really does like Gabbert. If so, I’m going to bang my head against the wall because I had Gabbert here as late as Wednesday.
Tennessee Titans: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Most mocks have Nick Fairley slotted here, but then again, most mocks don’t have Blaine Gabbert available at No. 8. If Cincinnati, Arizona and San Francisco all pass on Gabbert, the Titans will probably pounce on the Missouri Tiger.

Even if you think Gabbert is going to bust, can you blame the Titans for taking a chance on him at No. 8? Vince Young is gone and Kerry Collins is a free agent, so the only signal-caller on the roster is Rusty Smith. They’re desperate, and new regimes mean new quarterbacks.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Nick Fairley, DT – Nick Fairley is still a strong option. The Titans need a larger defensive tackle to pair with Jason Jones. There was talk of Albert Haynesworth returning to the team during the 2010 season, but that’s no longer a possibility with Jeff Fisher and Jim Washburn gone.

2. Robert Quinn, DE – The Titans need a defensive end. Robert Quinn may not even be available at No. 8.

3. Julio Jones, WR – Tennessee brought in Randy Moss last year to stretch the defense. That didn’t work because teams finally realized that Moss is done. That plan would be effective, however, with Julio Jones across from Britt. Also, Jones is a terrific run-blocker, which would help Chris Johnson. Johnson’s YPC dropped by more than a yard in 2010 because the blocking in front of him was awful.
Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Jerry Jones has to make sure that his biggest investment, Tony Romo, is protected. Dallas lost all hope when Romo was knocked out for the year against the Giants (they were winning the game and had a chance to jump back into the NFC East race with a victory). Marc Colombo is a sieve at right tackle, so Dallas must find an upgrade at the position to keep Romo healthy.

Second, Tyron Smith is arguably the top player available. Billed as the next D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Smith had a phenomenal Pro Day, weighing in at 310 pounds and carrying his new bulk well.

And third, there’s been a lot of buzz about Smith being Dallas’ pick at No. 9. It could be a smokescreen, but then again, the pick does make a ton of sense.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. J.J. Watt, DE/DT – Igor Olshansky needs to be upgraded. J.J. Watt is a strong possibility.

Pick change; previously J.J. Watt, DE/DT
Washington Redskins: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
The Redskins need a quarterback, but with Blaine Gabbert off the board, there is no signal-caller worth taking at No. 10, assuming Mike Shanahan isn’t in love with Jake Locker. And no, Washington won’t trade up. Trades just don’t happen in the top 10 unless Eric Mangini is involved. Plus, the Redskins don’t have the ammunition to make that type of move.

If Gabbert is gone, the Redskins will take the best player available because they have holes throughout their roster.

That includes the rush linebacker position. Washington made the switch to the 3-4 last season, but didn’t consider the possibility that Andre Carter would fail miserably in the new scheme. Carter is a free agent, so the Redskins will be looking for an upgrade across from Brian Orakpo.

Speaking of Orakpo, he was the only Washington player to record more than 2.5 sacks in 2010. How pathetic is that? This defense desperately needs help.

Robert Quinn, the top player available, shined at North Carolina’s Pro Day. Afterward, on Path to the Draft, every analyst agreed that there’s no way Quinn gets out of the top 10. He just offers too much upside as a dynamic pass-rusher.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Julio Jones, WR – Jones fills a huge need for the Redskins; with Santana Moss hitting free agency, their top receiver is currently Anthony Armstrong. Something must be done about this. Also, Jones’ run-blocking really has to intrigue Mike Shanahan, who will probably have to make do with Ryan Torain again next year.

2. J.J. Watt or Cameron Jordan, DE/DT – The Redskins need a new 3-4 end to upgrade their awful defensive line.

3. Blaine Gabbert, QB – Blaine Gabbert may drop to No. 10, so as Greg put it, “Redskins might get Gabbert without trading Daniel Snyder’s wife to Denver.”
Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
The Texans will spend a ton of 2011 NFL Draft picks on personnel for Wade Phillips’ new 3-4 defense. Their top three needs are rush linebacker, defensive end (five-technique) and nose tackle. Cornerback also will be addressed, but from what I’m told, Houston has “some concerns” about using this selection on Prince Aumukamara.

The best player available of those three aforementioned positions could arguably be Aldon Smith. Some may think this is a bit too early for Smith, but I couldn’t disagree more. It’s never too early to draft a potential double-digit sack artist. Pass-rushing defensive ends often go earlier than projected.

Smith missed some action this year, which would explain why he had only 10 TFL and 4.5 sacks. However, he’s a freak of nature and pretty much a lock for the top 15. He has drawn comparisons to Jason Pierre-Paul in terms of raw athleticism. The Cowboys have shown interest in him, likening him to DeMarcus Ware. Coincidentally, Ware was chosen with the 11th pick six years ago.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. J.J. Watt or Cameron Jordan, DE/DT – The Texans want another five-technique, and they’ll consider J.J. Watt and Cameron Jordan.

2. Prince Amukamara, CB – Prince Amukamara could be the pick if he’s available. As I said though, the Texans have “some concerns” about spending back-to-back first-round picks on cornerbacks. They appear focused on upgrading the front seven.
Minnesota Vikings: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
It almost pains me to make this pick for the Vikings. Two weeks ago, I would have scoffed at the prospect of Jake Locker going as high as No. 12 in the 2011 NFL Draft. But multiple reliable reports are indicating that Locker will be a top-16 selection and that Minnesota covets him, envisioning the Washington quarterback as the next Brett Favre.

I’d say Jake Plummer is the better comparison. Locker possesses tremendous athletic talent, but his accuracy is atrocious. His decision-making is terrible. His mechanics need work. And his football IQ is pretty low.

Still though, Minnesota is desperate for a quarterback, so the team doesn’t have much of a choice. I can’t blame them if they settle for Locker, so I’ll probably give them a B or a C in my live draft grades.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Nick Fairley, DT – If Nick Fairley and Jake Locker are both available, whom do they choose? I had a tough time with this one.

2. Tyron Smith, OT – Tyron Smith has bulked up to 310 pounds. He could be the team’s new left tackle, which would allow Leslie Frazier to move the aging Bryant McKinnie to the right side.

3. Julio Jones, WR – If the Browns pass on Julio Jones and the Redskins opt for a quarterback, Jones could drop to No. 12.

4. Aldon Smith or Cameron Jordan, DE – Ray Edwards is a free agent, so the defensive end position will be considered.
Detroit Lions: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Sorry, Lions fans. I had Prince Amukamara and/or Tyron Smith available in my previous updates, but that’s not the case this time. I think it’s possible that Amukamara will fall to No. 13, but many things would need to happen.

If the 2011 NFL Draft unfolds like this, the Lions have a difficult choice to make. I thought about it for a while, and I think they would roll the dice with Cameron Jordan.

Jordan could be the best player on Detroit’s board, and he would fill a need (albeit a minor one) at defensive end. Kyle Vanden Bosch, 33 in November, is coming off neck surgery.

MLive’s Tom Kowalski believes the Lions would strongly consider a defensive end if a really good one falls to No. 13. I have to agree.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Prince Amukamara, CB – Amukamara is the no-brainer selection if he drops this far. I had him here in Wednesday’s update.

2. Anthony Castonzo, OT – Anthony Castonzo fills the biggest need, but he’s not the best player available.

Pick change; previously Tyron Smith, OT
St. Louis Rams: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Before you e-mail me or post in the comment board below, “LOL YOU’RE AN IDIOT THEIRS NO WAY NICK FARELY DROPPS TO ST LOUISE!” remember two things:

First, Nick Fairley is a one-year wonder. General managers who look for prospects with tons of collegiate experience are automatically going to rule out Fairley because he did nothing prior to the 2010 season. Granted, he had an incredible year, but he’s a very risky prospect.

And second, Fairley reportedly has work ethic issues. Defensive linemen have a high first-round bust rate, so some teams are going to be scared to death that Fairley is going to gain weight and become lazy after receiving a huge signing bonus.

I’ll admit that it’s crazy to imagine Fairley falling this far, but it can happen. And if he’s available at No. 14, he just presents the Rams with way too much value at a position of dire need.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Corey Liuget, DT – It’s being widely reported that Corey Liuget is the favorite to be St. Louis’ pick. I’ve had Liuget here for two months, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Liuget were the pick. But if Fairley and Liuget are both available, it’s hard for me to imagine the Rams passing on the former.

2. Julio Jones, WR – If Julio Jones somehow slips to No. 14, he’ll be the pick.

3. Aldon Smith or Ryan Kerrigan, DE – James Hall just turned 34. Steve Spagnuolo likes to collect pass-rushers.
Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, G, Florida
I’ve had Mark Ingram slotted here for what seems like an eternity. But teams are now apparently scared of Ingram’s potentially arthritic knee. This could cause him to slip into the second round.

If the 2011 NFL Draft unfolds like this, the Dolphins would be, as Emmitt would say, stuck between a rock and a hard rock. None of the top players available fill Miami’s prominent needs. The closest prospect to doing so is Mike Pouncey.

I believe Miami will trade down for Pouncey. In fact, if there’s a team I had to bet on trading its first-round selection (excluding the Patriots, of course), it would be the Dolphins. They have no second-round choice, and they have too many needs to fill. Check out the No. 20 pick for a trade possibility.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Mark Ingram, RB – I’ll still list Mark Ingram as a possibility, but there are health concerns.

2. Aldon Smith, DE/OLB – Word is that Miami wants to upgrade its pass rush. The Dolphins could make a surprise choice and draft Aldon Smith, and then move Koa Misi inside next to Karlos Dansby.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Ryan Kerrigan is the type of player that general manager Gene Smith looks for. He was in school for four years. He was a 3-year starter. He was an Academic All-America. He has a non-stop motor and a blue-collar attitude. He was a team captain with no character concerns.

Oh, and Kerrigan is a good player who fills a need as well. The Jaguars had just three sacks in their final five games. With Aaron Kampman coming off his second ACL tear in two years and Jeremy Mincey being unproven, Jacksonville desperately needs help at defensive end.

Other 2011 NFL Draft Possibilities:

1. Brooks Reed, DE – Another smart, blue-collar defensive end. Brooks Reed was a captain at Arizona. Considering his amazing 10-yard split in the 40, it wouldn’t shock me at all if he were drafted at No. 16.

2. Christian Ponder, QB – I don’t think the Jaguars will select Christian Ponder here, but they could trade down and get him. Based on what Smith looks for, Ponder is probably high on his big board.

Go to 2011 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17-32

Sorry for cutting this into two halves; I’ve received complaints about load times and putting the mock draft on two pages saves bandwith.