2023 NFL Mock Draft – Overreaction

Monday, Jan. 9, 2023.
2023 NFL Mock DRAFT – WALT’S | CHARLIE’S
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Indianapolis Colts: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
TRADE! The Colts could hope to stay at pick No. 4 and have a quarterback drop to them, but that would be risky because the Falcons, Panthers, Raiders, Titans or another team could jump them to get a quarterback. Clearly, Indianapolis needs a young franchise quarterback. Going from No. 4 to No. 1 is feasible, and that would deny the Texans getting the quarterback of their choice as well.

Young is a true assassin on the football field capable of taking over games and carrying his team to wins. He is a very accurate passer, who shows superb placement, a fantastic ability to throw into tight windows, and excellent feel. Games look slowly paced for Young, whose natural instincts are off the charts. He is also a dangerous runner who offers superb escapability and is extremely dangerous to make plays off schedule. The only knock on Young (5-11, 194) is his size, but he was durable overall in his two years as a starter in the SEC.

In 2022, Young completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,328 yards, 32 touchdowns and five interceptions. He picked up four touchdowns on the ground as well. Young (5-11, 194) took over as Alabama’s starting quarterback in 2021, and there was a lot of hype about him in the scouting community. Some NFL sources believe Young’s skill set and style of play are similar to those of Kyler Murray. In 2021, Young completed 67 percent of his passes for 4,872 yards, 47 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Davis Mills is not the answer, and the Texans need a new signal-caller who is a true difference maker to replace Deshaun Watson. Here’s a potential franchise quarterback.

In 2022, Stroud completed 66 percent of his passes for 3,688 yards, 41 touchdowns and six interceptions. The 6-foot-3, 215-pounder is a highly talented dual-threat quarterback who could end up as a first-round pick – and perhaps at the top of Round 1. He won Ohio State’s starting quarterback position following Justin Fields’ departure to the NFL. In 2021, Stroud completed 72 percent of his passes for 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns and six interceptions. He was a dominant passer, showing good accuracy and the ability to push the ball vertically.

Arizona Cardinals: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Cardinals need more talent for their defensive line with J.J. Watt retiring. Here, Arizona grabs a difference maker.

In 2022, Carter has recorded 30 tackles, three sacks, two forced fumbles and three passes batted. He missed a chunk of time due to a sprained MCL from a dirty hit versus Missouri. Despite Georgia’s crowded defensive line filled with future early-round picks, Carter flashed as a sophomore in 2021 with 37 tackles and three sacks. Multiple team sources say Carter is a better player and prospect than Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt. The 6-foot-3, 310-pound Carter has quality size to go along with shocking speed and athleticism. However, multiple team sources say that Carter is not a hard worker and has a reputation for not loving football. Hence, if he slides in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, the makeup concerns will be why.

Chicago Bears: Will Anderson, DE, Alabama
TRADE! It would not shock me if the Bears decide to draft Bryce Young and trade away Justin Fields to a quarterback-needy team like the Colts, Falcons, Raiders or Panthers. Fields was a pick of the prior regime in Chicago, and he is not as natural a passer as Young. However, if the Bears decide to stick with Fields, they probably could move down, plus they have a ton of needs on their roster, including offensive line, wide receiver, and defensive help. Chicago really needs a difference maker for its defensive line. The team has to replace Robert Quinn and Khalil Mack with an elite pass rusher. Here, the Bears move down a few spots and are still able to land Anderson. Trading with the Colts at No. 4 is better for the Bears than dropping lower and missing out on Anderson or Jalen Carter.

In 2022, Anderson recorded 51 tackles, 10 sacks and an interception returned for a touchdown. The 6-foot-4, 235-pounder was the rare freshman to start on Nick Saban’s defense, but Anderson proved his special ability with a superb 2020 season. He was third in the SEC with seven sacks while also recording 10.5 tackles for a loss and 52 tackles. Anderson was phenomenal in 2021, recording 101 tackles, 17.5 sacks and three passes defended. Not only was he a dominant pass rusher, but Anderson was a strong, tough run defender. He has outstanding instincts and showed a great motor in the 2021 season.

Carolina Panthers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
TRADE! The Panthers jump ahead of the Raiders and Falcons to land a potential franchise quarterback. Carolina is desperate for a quarterback, and the team can’t bank on Raiders and Falcons passing on one of the top prospects. The Panthers have an extra second-round pick from the Christian McCaffrey trade, and that move was made to build up their ammo to go get a quarterback.

Levis completed 65 percent of his passes in 2022 for 2,406 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has a good skill set, but he has a lot of problems with interceptions, bad decision-making, taking bad sacks, and holding the ball too long. The 6-foot-3, 232-pound Levis has a cannon for an arm and easy velocity to push the ball downfield. He thrived running the Kentucky offense during 2021. Levis completed 66 percent of his passes that season for 2,826 yards, 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He also had nine rushing touchdowns. For the NFL, Levis projects as a big-armed pocket passer, but he needs to cut down on the interceptions and get much faster at getting the ball out.

Detroit Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Under Brad Holmes, the Lions have taken elite talents and not reached for need. Hence, I could see them passing on Will Levis and taking one of the best players in the 2023 NFL Draft, like Robinson. D’Andre Swift is a talented back, but he is utterly incapable of staying healthy and handling a big work load. Swift is not worthy of a big extension. Jamaal Williams is also a free agent after this season. Here’s a running back who has the potential to become a Lions legend who reminds their fanbase of the Barry Sanders days.

In 2022, Robinson averaged 6.1 yards per carry for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also notched 19 receptions for 314 yards and two scores. The junior had a painful overtime fumble against Texas Tech. Robinson was one of the best players in college football in 2021, producing a superb season for Texas. The sophomore averaged 5.8 yards per carry that season for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also took 26 receptions for 295 yards and four scores. In 2020, Robinson flashed his big-time skill set with 703 yards on only 86 carries – 8.2 average – and four touchdowns. He notched 15 catches for 196 yards and two scores that season. The 6-foot, 214-pound Robinson has power, speed, cutting ability, and natural instincts as a runner. Team sources also say he possesses outstanding character.

Las Vegas Raiders: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
This feels like a Raiders pick channeling the spirit of Al Davis. Josh McDaniels drafted Tim Tebow in the first round back in 2010, so it would not surprise me if he is willing to go after another Gators quarterback who is a dynamic athlete, runner, and deep-ball thrower, but also struggles to be accurate in the short to intermediate part of the field. McDaniels also had the Patriots sign Cam Newton, so his desire for this type of quarterback could push Las Vegas into looking past Richardson’s terrible accuracy.

In 2022, Richardson completed only 54 percent of his passes for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. On the ground, he put up 629 yards and nine touchdowns. He was excellent against Utah in the season opener, leading Florida to a comeback win, but he was horrible against Kentucky, costing the Gators a win due to horrible accuracy and turnovers. After playing poorly versus South Florida, Richardson had a huge day taking on Tennessee. Late in the season, Richardson struggled against Georgia and Florida State. Thus, he is far too raw and inconsistent to be a viable NFL starter. Richardson definitely needed to return to school for 2023 to improve before going pro, but he decided to declare for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Right now, Richardson is a bad quarterback, but he has an amazing skill set and incredible upside. As a pocket passer, Richardson is not good at this time. He is extremely inaccurate, especially in the short to intermediate part of the field. While Richardson has a cannon for an arm, he often throws flat passes and fastballs that are not catchable for his receivers. Richardson struggles with his field vision, decision-making and processing coverage post-snap, plus he has very streaky confidence.

On the positive side, the 6-foot-4, 236-pound Richardson has rare physical talent with great size, a howitzer for an arm, and speed and athleticism as a runner. In some ways, Richardson is like a shorter Cam Newton. Richardson’s supporters will point to Josh Allen as an example of a similar quarterback working out, but there have been many other first-round talents with good skill sets who never developed into accurate, effective quarterbacks, like Mitch Trubisky, Blake Bortles, E.J. Manuel, Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin III, etc. Thus, Richardson is a very risky pick because he is a pure boom-or-bust prospect, but there is no doubt that some coach or GM will fall in love enough to take him in the first or second round during the 2023 NFL Draft.

Atlanta Falcons: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
The Falcons could use more pass-rushing talent. Here’s a dangerous quarterback hunter for Atlanta.

Wilson recorded 61 tackles, one forced fumble and seven sacks in 2022. He did not do much in 2020 and 2019, racking up 22 tackles and three sacks over that time, but he broke out with an impressive 2021 season. The junior recorded 37 tackles, seven sacks and a pass defended in 2021. The 6-foot-6, 275-pounder has the size, length and strength to be a tough edge defender at the next level.

Seattle Seahawks: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
TRADE! The Seahawks move down in a trade with Carolina. Seattle could use more young talent for the defensive line at end and tackle. Here’s a great fit for an edge rusher.

The 6-foot-5, 275-pound Murphy has the skill set to dominate at the next level and could be a riser throughout the 2023 NFL Draft process. Not only did he put together a season of excellent tape over 2022, but Murphy is a freak athlete in possession of a crazy combination of size, speed, athleticism and strength. He should work out well and impress in the eye ball test. Murphy has the skill set to do whatever he wants on the football field as he can burn tackles with speed, use his strength to set the edge in the ground game, dominate tight ends, and simply take over games.

In 2022, Murphy recorded 40 tackles, 6.5 sacks, one forced fumble and two passes defended. He was excellent as a freshman defensive end for Clemson in 2020, recording 51 tackles, 12 tackles for a loss, four sacks, three forced fumbles and a pass broken up. In 2021, he totaled 37 tackles and seven sacks.

Philadelphia Eagles: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Eagles take the best player available, here landing a riser who could end up as the top corner in the the 2023 NFL Draft. Gonzalez would give them a good partner to pair with Darius Slay.

Team sources were impressed with Gonzalez (6-2, 201) on tape, starting from 2021 and into how he played in 2022. The junior is a big corner who is fast, athletic, and is able to run the route to prevent separation. Entering 2022, Gonzalez did not have an interception, so NFL evaluators wanted to see him show more ball skills, and he displayed improvement in that regard. In 2022, Gonzalez totaled 51 tackles, four interceptions and seven passes broken up.

Gonzalez started out his collegiate career at Colorado before transferring to Oregon. With Colorado in 2021, he collected 53 tackles and five passes broken up. Gonzalez notched 25 tackles and five breakups during the COVID-19-abbreviated season.

Tennessee Titans: Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern
The Titans need more offensive line talent.

Skoronski impressed as Northwestern’s replacement for Rashawn Slater. “[Skoronski]’s athletic, moves well, and is smooth,” said an AFC Director of player personnel. “He has very short arms, like 32 inches – he plays with better length than he has – but he doesn’t have a tackle body and looks more like a guard. Some guys I have spoken with compare him to Jonah Williams and some others have said Jonah Jackson.” Some teams will project the 6-foot-4, 315-pound Skoronski to guard, although others might think he can remain at tackle at the next level.

Houston Texans: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Houston’s needs a true No. 1 receiver for C.J. Stroud.

So far in 2022, Johnston has 59 receptions for 1,066 yards and six touchdowns. He flashed in 2021, catching 33 passes for 612 yards and six touchdowns. Sources from around the NFL are high on his skill set. “He’s 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and can win on all three levels. He puts up 20 yards per catch, runs great routes, is super smart, an alpha, and the hardest worker on the team,” an area scout told WalterFootball.com.

New York Jets: Paris Johnson, OT/G, Ohio State
The Jets may not be able to trust Mekhi Becton in 2023. Here is another starting tackle option who would provide some insurance in case Becton turns out as a bust.

The 6-foot-6, 315-pound Johnson has an excellent skill set with size, quickness and athleticism. He was superb for Buckeyes in 2022, not allowing a sack and manning the blind side for C.J. Stroud. Johnson started at guard in 2021, but he has moved to tackle as an upperclassmen. Johnson has lot of upside to improve as he gains additional experience.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
TRADE! Jacksonville moves up in a trade with New England. The Jaguars give Trevor Lawrence another weapon to go with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Smith-Njigba could be a true No. 1 for Lawrence.

Smith-Njigba recorded five catches for 43 yards in 2022. He left the season opener against Notre Dame early due to injury and was in and out of the lineup while missing most of the games. Smith-Njigba had a fantastic 2021 season despite being the third receiver behind Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. In 2021, Smith-Njigba caught 94 passes for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns, including an amazing Rose Bowl performance to lead the comeback win over Utah. The 6-foot, 197-pounder has serious speed, athleticism, and playmaking ability to go along with decent size.

Green Bay Packers: Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama
The Packers could use some offensive line talent. Here’s a blocker with the ability to compete immediately.

Steen was a 3-year starter at Vanderbilt before transferring to Alabama for his final season. The 6-foot-5, 315-pounder possesses excellent size for left tackle in the NFL. He was a rock-solid protector for Bryce Young while being a steady run blocker. Steen will enter the next level with a ton of experience, having started 45 straight games while playing in the best competition in college football. Steen has the flexibility to start out his career at guard before moving to tackle.

Washington Redskins: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Washington needs more cornerback and safety help. Here is a starting corner who could provide a quick upgrade.

Overall, Porter was steady coverage in 2022 while recording 27 tackles and 11 passes broken up. However, he really did not provide any big plays and did not record an interception. Porter rotated in as freshman in 2020 and had a quality debut. In 2021, he collected 51 tackles, one interception, four passes broken up and one forced fumble. The son of legendary Steelers linebacker Joey Porter, Joey Porter Jr., has an NFL pedigree. The 6-foot-2, 192-pounder possesses excellent size and the upside to become an impactful player. Porter has freakishly long arms, which makes him a superb fit for press-man corner to take on big receivers.

Go to Overreaction 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 17-31

Sorry for cutting this into two halves; I’ve received complaints about load times and putting the mock draft on two pages saves bandwidth.

Other 2023 NFL Mock Drafts:

2023 NFL Mock Draft – Walt’s

Charlie Campbell’s 2023 NFL Mock Draft

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2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

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2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

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