NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)

NFL Picks (2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 13, 3:25 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Saints -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Saints -4.
Thursday, Sept. 9, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

As I write every year, I am not, under any circumstances, watching any of that NFL Kickoff Concert crap before the opening game. I suck at pop culture. I was talking to this random girl at my recent housewarming party. She asked me what type of music I liked, and I couldn’t answer her. I don’t know anything, really. Is Puff Daddy still making music? What about Bubba Sparxxx? I was surprised to hear Eminem on the radio recently because I seriously thought he died. And I’m still not sure whether Hannah Montana is a porn star or a singer.

I Googled “NFL Kickoff Concert,” and I discovered that the Dave Matthews Band and Taylor Swift will be performing before the Saints-Vikings game. I’ve heard of Dave Matthews, but I can’t name any of his songs. And who the hell is Taylor Swift? Is this Stromile Swift’s daughter? If so, is she too a talentless hack with long arms and great leaping ability?

On the bright side, I can now inform this girl that I like to listen to Taylor Swift. Not that I can name any of Taylor Swift’s songs or anything, but I can BS my way through and impress her by informing her that Taylor Swift is Stromile Swift’s daughter.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Billions of people will watch this matchup because in addition to it being the first game of the 2010 season, a certain quarterback wearing a No. 4 jersey will be playing. Brett Favre hasn’t seen much action this preseason, but in his limited snaps he’s looked pretty good despite missing Sidney Rice.

Favre, however, won’t be able to complete many passes if he’s constantly getting sacked. Unfortunately for the soon-to-be 41-year-old man, that figures to be the case here. The Saints completely harassed Favre in the NFC Championship and should be able to do so again. Minnesota’s offensive line is a huge question mark going into the year.

To counter New Orleans’ pressure, Favre will have to lean on Adrian Peterson as both a runner and a receiver coming out of the backfield. Peterson totaled 122 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the NFC Championship, so he should be poised for a quality outing. Of course, Peterson will have to make sure he holds on to the football this time.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Vikings have an awesome defensive line capable of putting tons of pressure on the opposing quarterback. Just ask Tony Romo. Unfortunately, they just couldn’t get to Drew Brees in the NFC Championship. The combination of Brees’ ultra-quick release and the talented weapons around him makes it impossible to sack the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Brees went down only once in the previous meeting between these two teams.

Minnesota’s secondary is going to have tons of problems containing the Saints’ passing attack. Impressive rookie corner Chris Cook is out, meaning Lito Sheppard will have to start. Sheppard can’t cover anyone at this point of his career.

The only way New Orleans won’t put up tons of points is if they screw up and make mental errors. The Saints have played somewhat sloppily this preseason, as their receivers have dropped an unusual amount of balls. That may have just been a fluke, or it may have been some sort of repercussion of a Super Bowl hangover. We’ll find out which on Thursday night.

RECAP: The Saints are the better team. But we discovered that when these teams played last January. That contest was a three-point push, so if history repeats itself the Vikings will be the right side this time around. Of course, Sidney Rice is out, which would explain the slightly inflated spread.

I don’t like this game from a betting perspective, but since I have to pick a side, I’m taking the Vikings. I just feel like this game means so much more to them than New Orleans. They’ve been waiting to avenge their NFC Championship loss since January. The Saints, meanwhile, will be focused on receiving their Super Bowl rings and attending all the festivities in addition to actually playing this game. I’m buying the Super Bowl hangover.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Saints will feed off the emotion of their unbelievable crowd, but the Vikings have the emotional edge here. They’ve been looking forward to this game since New Orleans defeated them in the NFC Championship.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The public thinks Brett Favre is too old to beat the Saints apparently.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 79% (138,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Saints are 28-43 ATS at home since 2001 (11-7 since 2008).

Saints are 21-32 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Saints -4.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Saints 24, Vikings 23
Vikings +6 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 14, Vikings 9
Saints-Vikings Recap

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Dolphins -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Dolphins -3.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Regardless of what I think about that NFL Kickoff concert, I’m thrilled the NFL is back. I’ve watched every single preseason game this August – go here for recaps of all the preseason games – and I seriously feel like I’ve just come out of a coma. It’ll be great to watch meaningful games and not have to deal with idiot biased announcers. Here’s an example from the Raiders TV Network announcers if you missed it:

The Cowboys call themselves ‘America’s Team.’ Well, the Raiders are the planet’s team.

Must… not… go… back… into… coma…

MIAMI OFFENSE: I have the Bills ranked dead last in my 2010 NFL Power Rankings for a number of reasons, two of which happen to be that they are making an odd transition to a 3-4 defense without the proper personnel, and they lost their top pass-rusher in Aaron Schobel.

Buffalo couldn’t stop the run at all last year, so I don’t see how its new inferior defense will put the clamps on Miami’s vaunted rushing attack. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams could easily combine for 250 rushing yards in this contest.

The Bills’ defensive strength is their opportunistic secondary. Chad Henne struggled against it in a November meeting last year, going 17-of-31 for 175 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Henne really improved toward the end of the year and figures to be better now in his second season. However, he’s not getting any help. Miami’s receivers, including Brandon Marshall, dropped a combined 11 passes in the team’s first three preseason games. The Dolphins in general looked really sloppy, and I’m not sure that they’re going to be completely focused for this matchup.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: C.J. Spiller, C.J. Spiller and more C.J. Spiller. The Bills have to get Spiller going if they want to win this game. The problem is that while the Dolphins were susceptible to the run last year – Fred Jackson averaged 4.8 YPC against Miami in two meetings – they figure to be better now in that department with the additions of Karlos Dansby and Jared Odrick. Besides, it’s not like the Bills have an awesome offensive line that will be able to blow open holes for Spiller.

As all defenses will do this year, the Dolphins will place eight men in the box to contain Spiller, challenging Trent Edwards to beat them downfield. This may sound bleak if you’re thinking about betting Buffalo, but the Edwards-to-Lee Evans connection has been particularly strong this preseason, as the two have connected on 70- and 50-yard bombs.

What helps the Bills is the status of Miami’s pedestrian secondary. Will Allen is out for the year, and Sean Smith has played so poorly this preseason that he has been benched in favor of Jason Allen. Yes, the same bust that Nick Saban drafted a long time ago.

RECAP: Everyone is on the Dolphins. I liked Miami myself up until a couple of weeks ago. I’ve soured a bit on them after watching them struggle in the preseason. Additionally, consider the following:

1. Miami has not won in Buffalo since 2004.

2. The Dolphins have never won a Week 1 game with Tony Sparano, losing to the 2008 Jets and 2009 Falcons. Neither squad made the playoffs.

3. The Bills have to feel really disrespected. Along with the Browns, they’ve been the butt of every NFL joke this offseason. Most 2011 NFL Mock Drafts on the Web – including Sun Tan Man’s – have Buffalo picking first. Even worse, new head coach Chan Gailey asked his own fans not to heckle the team. It’s that bad.

4. After this seemingly easy game – remember, the Bills are the laughing stock of the NFL, so the Dolphins may not take them seriously – Miami has to deal with the Vikings, Jets, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens and Titans in consecutive weeks. How in the world are the Dolphins going to be focused for Buffalo?

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

Look at how brutal Miami’s schedule is after this: at Minnesota, vs. Jets, vs. Patriots, at Packers, vs. Steelers (with Big Ben back), at Bengals, at Ravens, vs. Titans. Wow. That’s a Breather Alert if I’ve ever seen one.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

As expected, no one likes the Bills.

Percentage of money on Miami: 88% (136,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Bills are 5-0 vs. Dolphins in Buffalo since 2004.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Small Favorite Dominance: Divisional favorites of 1-3 points are 14-3 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.

Dolphins are 9-3 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008.

Tony Sparano is 0-2 SU/ATS on Kickoff Weekend.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 64 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Dolphins 16
Bills +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 15, Bills 10

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
Line: Titans by 6.5. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Titans -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Titans -7.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Titans.

In my last lead, I mentioned a ridiculously biased quote from a Raiders TV announcer. Let’s get the best of the rest from the inept idiots who nearly killed me this preseason:

1. The guys on the Raiders TV Network win the award for Most Excited Biased Announcers. Seriously, they made Gus Johnson sound pretty tranquil. When Bruce Gradkowski hit Louis Murphy for a 74-yard touchdown in the second quarter, the following was yelled: “GOOOOOOOOOOOOO GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LOUIS MURPHY GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO GOOOOOOOOOOOOO TOUCHDOWN RRRRRRRRRRRRAIDERS!!!!!!!!!! YEAHHHH!!!!!!!”

2. Bob Griese (Dolphins): “I really like this Matt Ryan at quarterback. He’s tall and uhh…”

3. The Saints broadcasting team was horrendous. It began early on, when they called Andre Johnson “Andre Jackson.” In the second quarter, they didn’t even acknowledge that the Texans scored a touchdown amid an interview with a very fat man. In the third quarter, they spent 15 minutes (I’m not exaggerating) on LSU football and even later delved into the New Orleans mayoral race.

4. Here’s an exchange between Bob Griese and Dick Stockton. Take a look at how out of it Stockton was:

Griese: When I was playing football, we had one 300-pound lineman in the NFL. One! In 2000, there were 300 300-pound linemen. Guess how many 300-pound linemen there were this year?

Stockton: 85.

Griese: There were 345 guys who were 300 pounds or more!

Great guess, Dick Stockton. You were just a tad off.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans’ two-headed rushing attack is nearly impossible to stop. Defenses can’t commit to the explosive Chris Johnson because Vince Young can take off and run for a big gain. Johnson struggled to get going in the preseason, but that was also the case last August. Plus, left tackle Michael Roos missed more than half of the exhibition because of a minor knee strain. He’ll be in the lineup.

The Raiders were 28th versus the run last year. They figure to be much better in that department this season because Tommy Kelly is in great shape and Rolando McClain provides an upgrade at inside linebacker. However, that doesn’t really matter in this game because the Titans’ ground attack was able to trample everyone in 2009.

It’ll be imperative for Oakland to force Tennessee into third-and-long situations. Though Young figures to be well protected, he may have problems getting the ball downfield because of the Raiders’ impressive secondary. Nnamdi Asomugha is healthy again, and will eliminate whomever the coaching staff tells him to cover (Kenny Britt or Nate Washington).

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It’s a shame Michael Bush broke his thumb. Bush is a very talented runner who would have given Tennessee’s undersized defensive line major problems. Darren McFadden will start instead, but while he’s a great threat as a pass-catcher coming out of the backfield, he still goes down on first contact.

Without a potent running game to lean on, Jason Campbell will have to have a great game if the Raiders want to win this contest. The Titans were brutal versus the pass last year, but that’s because Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin played hurt. Both Finnegan and Griffin are healthy again, and could create problems for Campbell, who doesn’t have a true No. 1 receiver to throw to. With Finnegan erasing either Louis Murphy or Darrius Heyward-Bey (Raiders will be hoping it’s the latter), I expect Campbell to lean on Zach Miller heavily.

RECAP: This should be a tough defensive battle, quite possibly decided by a long Chris Johnson run. Nevertheless, I think 6.5 points is a bit too much to lay with a completely one-dimensional offense going up against a very good stop unit.

The Raiders tend to thrive in situations like this. They’ve recently been brutal when expected to win (0-8 ATS as a favorites since 2006), but they play well as larger underdogs. They were 5-1 against the spread down the stretch last year when giving 6.5 or more, even beating several teams with winning records like the Bengals and Steelers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Tons of action is on the host.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 85% (141,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Vince Young is 26-12 as a starter (24-14 ATS).

Opening Line: Titans -7.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Titans 20, Raiders 17
Raiders +6.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 38, Raiders 13

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 5. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Patriots -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Patriots -5.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

To those of you who are fairly new to the site, I’ll have detailed NFL Picks like these each week. Also, look for the following features each week:

2011 NFL Mock Draft Updates

Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em

2010 NFL Power Rankings

2010 NFL Game Recaps

Emmitt on the Brink

2011 NFL Draft Prospect Ranking Updates

Jerks of the Week

2012 NFL Mock Draft Updates

2010 College Football Picks

And that’s about it from me. Matt will have his updates and the NBA Draft guys will post stuff as well. So, just continue to read on, send this out to your friends, or join the forum, where there will be live in-game threads every week.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: There are no more excuses for Carson Palmer. He has an incredible supporting cast. Cedric Benson looks as great as ever; Terrell Owens is better than Chad Ochocinco at this point; and both Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley were spectacular as rookies this preseason.

It’s all about Palmer. Was his horrific performance toward the end of the 2009 season the result of lacking arm strength or the absence of talent around him? If it’s the former, the Bengals won’t score very many points in this contest.

If it’s the latter though – and I’m skeptical having watched Palmer this preseason – then New England will have major issues stopping the Bengals. The Patriots lack the personnel to get to the quarterback (seriously, Bill Belichick, when are you going to draft a pass-rusher with a first-round pick?) and top corner Leigh Bodden is out for the year.

Containing Benson figures to be a problem for New England, regardless of whether or not Palmer is healthy. With Ty Warren out for the year and Richard Seymour’s shoes still left unfilled, the defensive front will be overmatched.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Ignore what happened last year. Tom Brady was coming off knee surgery and later suffered an injury to his finger. He wasn’t even close to 100 percent.

I think Brady’s bound to have a bounce-back season. He looks completely pissed and motivated right now, as he’s been hearing that the Jets are suddenly Super Bowl contenders. The lack of a long-term contract also has to play a factor in his motivation.

Brady has the weapons around to him to post huge numbers this year. Not on the 2007 level, but something close. The Bengals have two great corners, but only Darrelle Revis can shut down Randy Moss. And who’s going to cover Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez? The Patriots simply have too much fire power.

The key to stopping New England, as the Giants showed us in the Super Bowl, is completely collapsing Brady’s pocket. The Bengals have a very good defense, but their pass rush is a bit lacking. Antwan Odom is coming off a torn Achilles, so he can’t be close to 100 percent. Domata Peko is very good, and I like Geno Atkins, but he’s just a rookie.

RECAP: The Patriots are at their best when everyone doubts them. It seems like everyone is picking the Jets to win the AFC East and to even advance to the Super Bowl. Brady is completely healthy now and playing for a big contract. Belichick, meanwhile, will come up with some defensive scheme to take advantage of Palmer’s diminished arm strength.

SURVIVOR PICK: I can’t remember a tougher Week 1 survivor pick. To me, there are only four valid options: New England, Tennessee, New York Giants and San Diego.

Let’s cross off the Chargers because I hate picking road teams, especially those playing at a divisional rival. Of the three remaining squads, I would be most surprised if New England lost. I don’t trust Vince Young, while the Giants will have their own issues (will get to that below).

By the way, you can enter our 2010 NFL Survivor Pool to win $350. Entry is completely free!

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady looks like he’s in F-U mode. Everyone is talking about the Jets as Super Bowl contenders while completely writing off the Patriots. Brady and Bill Belichick thrive in this situation.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 55% (176,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Bengals were 6-2 ATS as underdogs in 2009.

Patriots are 46-36 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Tom Brady is 108-36 as a starter (84-57 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Bengals 20
Patriots -5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
SURVIVOR PICK (0-0)
Patriots 38, Bengals 24

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
Line: Giants by 7. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Giants -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Giants -6.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Giants.

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition:

Hello.
My name is miss Julian saw your email today and became int rested in you,i will also like to know you the more,and i want you to send a mail to my email address so i can give you my picture for you to know whom l am.Here is my email address ([email protected]) i believe we can move from here.I am waiting for your mail to my email address above blessing (Remediable the distance or col our does not matter but love matters slot in life) Please ripely me with my email address he ([email protected])

So, this mysterious, borderline illiterate Miss Julian girl saw my e-mail and became interested in me? Those are some pretty low standards. And how would this work if she didn’t have access to the Internet? I could actually see her going up to some guy and saying, “Saw your zip code today and became int rested in you.”

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The preseason was basically irrelevant for the Panthers’ offense. Matt Moore struggled, but that was only natural as Steve Smith was out. Smith’s absence was very prevalent, as he’s still one of the top receivers in the NFL. Moore will be thrilled to have him back, especially against a questionable Giants pass defense that allowed Smith to tally 60 yards and a touchdown despite the fact that Moore had to throw only 20 times in that blowout.

Of course, the Panthers’ primary focus will be establishing the run. This worked great in the aforementioned meeting between these two teams when Jonathan Stewart rumbled for 206 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries.

Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both figure to have big games. The Giants simply haven’t done enough to bolster their ground defense this offseason, as they’re relying on Chris Canty and Jonathan Goff to clog the middle.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Panthers could have their own issues versus the run, though that simply hasn’t been the case this preseason. They’ve actually done a really great job of stopping opposing running backs, including Shonn Greene, who was able to muster only 10 yards on six carries. I still doubt Carolina’s talent on the defensive front though, so let’s see what happens here.

The Panthers will hope to contain Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to force the Giants into third-and-long situations. Defensive ends Greg Hardy and Everette Brown played well in the preseason, but will that transition over to an actual game? Carolina may have to send a couple of blitzers to apply pressure on Eli Manning, who has two very talented receivers at his disposal in Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith.

RECAP: This line is way too high, as these teams are more closely matched than a seven-point spread would indicate.

On top of that, I really like the Panthers to cover because of the Giants’ stadium situation. Favorites opening up their new digs are just 3-8 against the spread since 1997. There are just way too many distractions and too much pressure on the team to win their first game in their new home. Plus, the expensive seats keep the more rowdy fans away from the field, thus eliminating some of the host’s advantage. Bill Simmons wrote an entire article about this a couple of years ago.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Giants may want revenge on the Panthers after Carolina beat them 41-9 last year. Will they be focused though because of the new stadium?

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

About two-thirds action on the host. I thought it’d be more.

Percentage of money on New York: 69% (167,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Sucky Stadium: Favorites opening up a new stadium are 3-8 ATS since 1997.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Panthers are 34-23 ATS as an underdog the previous 57 instances.

Giants are 15-21 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 36 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -7.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Showers, 69 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Giants 27, Panthers 24
Panthers +7 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 31, Panthers 18 MISSING

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 38.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Falcons -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Falcons -3.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

In addition to an E-mail of the Week, I’m also going to post a Video of the Week. It’s the beginning of football season, so this should be a football video. Forum member Rush posted this about a week ago – quite possibly the worst football play ever.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Why is Dennis Dixon starting again? Dixon is obviously more athletically talented than Charlie Batch and can make some plays with his legs, but Batch should be the choice. He’s a smart veteran who will convert third-and-intermediate downs and won’t make any mistakes. Dixon, as we saw in the third preseason game, is very prone to creating errors.

Regardless of who the quarterback is, Pittsburgh will really focus on establishing the run. That won’t work so well, as Atlanta really clamped down on opposing running backs late in the year, limiting its final four opponents, including the Jets, to 3.7 yards per carry or fewer.

Dixon will be tasked with moving the chains for the Steelers. While the Falcons have a lacking pass rush and a questionable secondary, Pittsburgh’s offensive line simply isn’t good enough to keep any team out of the backfield. The loss of right tackle Willie Colon was huge. Dixon will have to do a ton of scrambling to get Pittsburgh deep into Atlanta territory.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Much like the Steelers, the Falcons will have major problems putting up points on the scoreboard. Establishing Michael Turner will be very difficult, as the Steelers perennially have one of the top run defenses in the NFL. Matt Ryan will constantly find himself in long-yardage situations, which is not a good thing when going up against James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Pittsburgh’s unbelievable pass rush.

Ryan actually hasn’t been himself this preseason. He was 24-of-45 for 213 yards, one touchdown and one interception in three exhibition contests. That’s a completion percentage of 53.3 and a horrific YPA of 4.7. Some of that can be attributed to Roddy White’s drops, but many of Ryan’s intermediate passes just have been inaccurate. He particularly fired a number of errant balls toward Tony Gonzalez in the third week of the preseason at Miami.

With pressure in his face and Troy Polamalu lurking in the defensive backfield, Ryan will have a really tough time converting third downs and moving the Falcons into scoring position.

RECAP: One of my favorite NFL betting angles to pick a good team missing its starting quarterback in its first game. This has worked well with the Steelers in the past, as they are 4-2 against the spread when Ben Roethlisberger misses a non-Week 17 contest.

The reasoning behind it is simple. On a good team, talented defensive players, offensive linemen, running backs and receivers tend to step up their game at 110 percent because they know they need to. Their opponent, on the other hand, figures that beating a squad missing a player of Roethlisberger’s caliber will be easy. It’s just human nature. If you’re playing a sport, and the other team’s best player is out, there will ALWAYS be a bit of a letdown.

This game just means too much to the Steelers and too little to the Falcons. Pittsburgh knows it has to salvage at least a 2-2 record in its first four contests to have a shot at the playoffs. Atlanta, meanwhile, is playing a non-conference foe and has Arizona at home the following week. If the Falcons lose this game, so what? They can just rebound with a victory over the Kurt Warner-less Cardinals next Sunday.

The Steelers will be playing their heart out. I love them to cover this spread; in fact, I’ve been eyeing this game ever since Roethlisberger was suspended, hoping that I’d get Pittsburgh as a home underdog.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

One locker room: “Ben Roethlisberger’s out! This is going to be an easy game for us!” The other locker room: “Our starting quarterback is out, and no one thinks we can win without him. Let’s show everyone how wrong they are!”

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
No Big Ben!? Let’s bet against the Steelers!

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 64% (134,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Steelers are 4-2 ATS when Ben Roethlisbeger misses a non-Week 17 game.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Cloudy, 66 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 17, Falcons 13
Steelers +1.5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 38 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 15, Falcons 9

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Buccaneers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Buccaneers -3.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Browns.

Some college football notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I haven’t written anything about this, but the NCAA, as usual, is a complete joke. I understand that USC “cheated” during the Reggie Bush era (as if most schools don’t pay their players). However, what the hell is the point in punishing the guys on the team now? They had nothing to do with Bush. Starting quarterback Matt Barkley was in middle school when all of this Bush crap went down. Why deny him the chance of playing in a meaningless postseason exhibition game like the Rose Bowl? College football players tend to like playing in meaningless postseason exhibition games for whatever reason, so this is wrong.

Here’s a thought, stupid NCAA. How about you fine USC a ton of money so they make sure it doesn’t happen again? This way, none of the current players will be punished, and the people who were really in charge of this will have to pay for their actions.

2. Speaking of the stupid NCAA, another ridiculous thing is all of these suspensions for A.J. Green, Marcell Dareus and all of those North Carolina players in the wake of their attendance at some agent party. So, let me get this straight: A business major at Georgia, Alabama or North Carolina meeting with some job recruiters in anticipation of landing a job is OK, but some football players congregating with some agents in anticipation of preparing for their NFL career is forbidden? Huh?

The NCAA is a disgrace. I would really love to see some powerhouse schools, including Penn State (my alma mater) say, “You know what, NCAA? F*** you and your idiotic regulations. We’re done with you. We’re forming our own organization and creating an awesome playoff system that our players, coaches, students and fans will love. Go f*** yourself, NCAA.”

Unfortunately, this will probably never happen. Not with Penn State anyway. Our university president Graham “Cocker” Spanier doesn’t have the balls to do something like that. He’s too busy making his ugly gray toupee look pretty anyway.

3. I’ll have to credit Awesome Kelly in Arizona for picking up on this quote because I was asleep when it was said:

“You don’t want to have to go in and outscore your opponent every week” – Kirk Herbstreit (College Game Day)

I guess you don’t HAVE to outscore your opponent every week. I mean, who the hell wants to go undefeated?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s really hard to believe, but Jake Delhomme looked really competent in the preseason. He was confident and error-free, and in complete command of the offense. It’s as if his son was never kidnapped.

As long as Delhomme avoids the fumbles and interceptions that plagued him last year, the Browns should be able to move the chains consistently in this contest.

Cleveland’s running game figures to do all of the dirty work. Jerome Harrison and Peyton Hillis should be able to find wide-open running lanes for themselves, as the Browns’ solid front will have its way with a Tampa Bay run defense that surrendered at least 107 rushing yards to all but two opponents last year. Yes, Gerald McCoy was added, but I’m curbing my expectations since it’s his first game.

Assuming Harrison and Hillis are successful at pounding the rock, Delhomme will convert third-and-short opportunities amid no pressure in the pocket. The Buccaneers notched only 28 sacks in 2009, and again, I’m not going to count on much from McCoy in his NFL debut.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I like the Buccaneers’ offense this year. Rookie receiver Mike Williams is awesome, Cadillac Williams is finally healthy, and Josh Freeman is a million miles ahead of where he was last summer.

Putting up points against the Browns won’t be a simple task, however. Cleveland’s defense really improved late last season when Ahtyba Rubin and Matt Roth stepped into the starting lineup. Rubin bolstered the team’s ability to stop the run, while Roth gave the Browns a decent pass-rusher. Tampa Bay’s offensive line isn’t very good, and it could have issues opening up running lanes for Cadillac and protecting Freeman.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if Freeman struggled in this contest. In addition to going up against two tough corners in Eric Wright and Sheldon Brown, Freeman is coming off a broken thumb. He missed most of the preseason, so he hasn’t had the live in-game reps a young player like him needs.

RECAP: I like this Buccaneers team to improve and win about 5-7 games this year. However, I just don’t think they’re in a position to be favored over anyone yet. Besides, while Tampa Bay has the greater ceiling of these two squads (since they actually have a franchise quarterback), I feel like the Browns are further ahead at this moment. I’m taking the points.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Two-thirds of the action is on the Browns.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 83% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS at home under Raheem Morris.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Sunny, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Buccaneers 19
Browns +3 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
Over 37 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 17, Browns 14

Denver Broncos (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Jaguars -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Jaguars -3.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

More college football notes:

4. After a night of drinking, I woke up around 12:45 on Saturday afternoon. I flipped on the Big Ten Network and noticed that Penn State was losing to powerhouse Youngstown State, 7-6. Feeling complete shame as a Penn State alumnus, I quickly Tweeted (follow me @walterfootball): “We are… PENN STATE. We are… BARELY BEATING YOUNGSTOWN STATE FML.”

Penn State eventually was able to pull away. Unfortunately, Alabama is going to destroy my alma mater next week. I really have no idea how the Nittany Lions are ranked No. 14 in some stupid poll, but hey, I won’t complain when I make a couple hundred bucks by betting against them. Man, I’m a crappy alum.

5. Outside of the Penn State-Youngstown State, USC-Hawaii and LSU-North Carolina games, I barely watched college football this past Saturday. I just didn’t have the motivation. I mean, seriously, what’s the point? Only a handful of teams have a chance to go undefeated this year, so games involving those squads are the only ones that matter. College football prides itself for having the “most exciting regular season,” but that’s complete BS. Like, who cares about LSU versus North Carolina?The finish was exciting, but neither of those schools will go undefeated this year. So why watch any of their games outside of scouting purposes?

I have an idea. Get ready, because this is going to knock your socks off. To make games like LSU-North Carolina meaningful, let’s have – wait for it – a playoff system! Yes, I just thought of this myself! I think of good ideas like this all of the time.

6. Speaking of college football, if you’re a fan of reading NFL Draft scouting reports or just love the NFL Draft in general, I urge you to check out a new section of the site called Scout’s Notebook, where Matt McGuire breaks down game tape of various college football games a few days after they happen.

DENVER OFFENSE: I wrote the following in one of my 2010 NFL Preseason Recaps: “I’m not sure who Denver’s starting quarterback is right now, but it’s certainly not Kyle Orton. This man may look like Orton and talk like Orton, but he’s not playing like Orton. The guy wearing Orton’s jersey has inexplicably shown improved arm strength this preseason.”

I wasn’t joking about this. Orton looks like a completely different quarterback. I’m not saying he’s John Elway or anything, but it’s possible that he could lead Denver to a winning record (especially considering the schedule), as he looks really comfortable with Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal as his receivers.

And it’s not like the Jaguars can stop the pass anyway. Their pass rush is abysmal – they could easily finish last in sacks again – and their secondary is in shambles. Rashean Mathis has really fallen off recently, and the team’s starting safeties are Sean Considine and Anthony Smith. This has to be a joke. I mean, the Jaguars have to be hiding a talented defensive player or two somewhere in their locker room, right?

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Maurice Jones-Drew scared all 25 Jaguar fans this offseason when rumors floated around that he had knee surgery. But Jones-Drew is fine and will start this game to the chagrin of the Broncos. Denver’s run defense was awful toward the end of the 2009 campaign, and while the team signed Jamal Williams and Justin Bannan this offseason, I don’t expect things to improve much in this department.

With Jones-Drew ripping off long gains, it’ll make life even easier for David Garrard. Elvis Dumervil is out for the year, so I’m not sure where Denver’s pass rush is going to come from.

The Broncos’ defensive strength is in the secondary. Champ Bailey should be able to limit Mike Sims-Walker, so Garrard will have to look toward the emerging second-year Mike Thomas pretty often. Thomas saw a ton of targets in Jacksonville’s third preseason game, so maybe Jack Del Rio was preparing for this contest. Wait, did I just say “Jack Del Rio” and “preparing” in the same sentence? Just disregard everything I said about Thomas.

RECAP: Speaking of Del Rio, the laziest coach in America probably won’t be game planning too hard for this contest. Del Rio, 0-10 against the spread as a favorite and 4-16 against the spread versus non-divisional foes, simply doesn’t care about contests like these.

What’s more damning is that owner Wayne Weaver criticized Del Rio’s work ethic last December, yet he didn’t fire Del Rio after the season because he didn’t want to pay two coaches. Then again, I can’t really blame Weaver because the Jacksonville Jaguars lost $144 million in team value in the past year.

At any rate, I fully expect Denver to prevail over the Jaguars and their half-baked game plan. I feel like the Broncos are the superior team anyway.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

The Jaguars are not playing a divisional opponent, so there’s a very good chance they won’t try.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight action on the host.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 69% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Jaguars are 14-9 ATS in September home games.

Jaguars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 season openers.

Jaguars are 4-16 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 0-10 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -1.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 87 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 30, Jaguars 20
Broncos +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 24, Broncos 17

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Colts -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Colts -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.

I have incredible news to report. This year, I’m in the same fantasy football league as Bo-Bo! If you don’t know who Bo-Bo is, he’s quite possibly the worst fantasy player in the history of the universe. Here was the team he drafted last year:

QB: Trent Edwards (6th-round pick); RB1: Michael Turner; RB2: Frank Gore; WR1: Terrell Owens; WR2: Kevin Curtis (ouch); WR3: Joey Galloway (LOL); TE: Chris Cooley; DEF: Minnesota; K: David Akers (12th-round pick).

As you can imagine, that team didn’t fare very well. Bo-Bo went 3-10, losing his final game by the score of 88-23.

This year’s draft was a bit different. Bo-Bo actually made some decent picks. I kid you not. Here’s his 2010 roster:

QBs: Brett Favre, Jay Cutler. RBs: Maurice Jones-Drew, Pierre Thomas, Montario Hardesty. WRs: Brandon Marshall, Mike Sims-Walker, Santana Moss, Austin Collie, Kevin Walter. TEs: Tony Gonzalez, John Carlson. Ks: Stephen Gostkowski, Lawrence Tynes. DEF: 49ers.

I’m not sure why Bo-Bo has only three running backs (one of whom is on IR) compared to two kickers on his roster, but I’d say that this is a major improvement for Bo-Bo. In fact, I think Bo-Bo could win five, maybe six games this year!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: What’s there to say about Indianapolis’ offense that hasn’t been said before? Peyton Manning is still awesome, and he has more talented weapons around him than ever. Seriously, how do you stop Manning when he has Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai at his disposal? The only thing that could thwart Manning is that stupid new illegal snap penalty.

The Texans did as good a job as any team of slowing down Manning, limiting the Colts to 44 points in two contests last year. They did this by taking Addai out of the game (thanks to the addition of Bernard Pollard), making Manning do all of the work out of long-yardage situations.

Despite those efforts, however, Manning was still a combined 61-of-85 for 562 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions in two meetings against Houston. Like I said, only the illegal snap penalty is powerful enough to contain No. 18.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have always done a great job early on against the Colts in terms of establishing a big lead. Given their personnel, that’s not surprising. Matt Schaub is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, and Andre Johnson is unstoppable as long as either Darrelle Revis or Nnamdi Asomugha aren’t involved.

Houston’s downfall, however, has been its inability to hold a late-game lead against Indianapolis. That could change this time because Arian Foster looks like he’s the real deal. Foster totaled 216 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 39 carries in his final two games of the 2009 campaign. He picked up right where he left off against the Cowboys in Houston’s third preseason contest.

Foster seems like he’s the missing piece of the puzzle. With his help, the Texans might be able to finally run out the clock against their arch rival.

RECAP: Under normal circumstances, I’d have a big play on the Texans. This is perhaps their most important game in franchise history. They’re finally good enough to slay the Colts, and the crowd will be insane. Plus, by going with Houston, I’ll be playing against the Super Bowl loser, a strategy that has worked incredibly well for me in the past (see the stat below).

However, these aren’t normal circumstances because of Peyton Manning. I’ve learned over the years that betting against Manning to win a game straight up in the regular season is absolutely foolish; Manning is 10-2 versus the spread on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007. He’s simply the best, and I refuse to lay any amount of money against him.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

Is this one of the biggest games in Houston Texans history?

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

People are pounding the Colts? I’m shocked.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 90% (159,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 15 of the 16 meetings.

Super Bowl Loser Syndrome: Super Bowl losers are 3-13 ATS in their first game the following season.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Small Favorite Dominance: Divisional favorites of 1-3 points are 14-3 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.

Colts are 39-24 ATS on the road since 2002.

Colts are 10-2 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.

Peyton Manning is 30-18 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Texans are 8-1 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.

Texans are 1-5 ATS on kickoff weekends since 2004.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Texans 23
Colts -2 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 34, Colts 24

Detroit Lions (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
Line: Bears by 6.5. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Bears -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Bears -6.5.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Lions.

I’ve gotten plenty of e-mails and Facebook messages from people asking me if/when Emmitt on the Brink will be back. Well, I’m happy to announce that the Season 3 premiere of Emmitt on the Brink will be posted this weekend. I have a number of awesome things planned for this season, including the addition of Eric Mangini to New England’s coaching staff. Mangini, a defensive coach, has accepted the offensive coordinator position with the Patriots for an undisclosed reason. Unfortunately, his mom is making him take Shannon Sharpe along. Stay tuned.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford this preseason: 37-of-52, 353 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. That’s a completion percentage of 71.2.

Stafford is the real deal. I thought this when the Lions drafted him 17 months ago, and he’s definitely not disappointing his believers. What makes his future even more exciting is the all of the talent Detroit’s front office has surrounded him with. Calvin Johnson is unquestionably the most physically skilled receiver in the NFL. Jahvid Best is amazing, capable of going the distance on any play. Nate Burleson is shaping up to be a quality No. 2 receiver. And don’t forget about Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew.

The Bears don’t have enough skill in their secondary to slow down all of Stafford’s weapons, so they’ll have to pressure the former No. 1 overall pick. Detroit’s opponents had an easy time doing this in 2009, but the addition of Best will slow the defenses down. Best will take Stafford out of long-yardage situations, particularly in this contest; Chicago surrendered at least 100 rushing yards to its final 11 opponents in last year.

The only time the Bears battled Stafford, they were able to sack him five times (even though Stafford was still 24-of-36, 296 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Chicago’s pass rush has improved on paper with the addition of Julius Peppers. However, Peppers is notorious for taking off entire games – and this was before he signed a huge contract. With left guard Rob Sims helping blind-side tackle Jeff Backus, I don’t expect Chicago to come away with many sacks in this contest.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Mike Martz is known in the fantasy football community for helping his players put up pretty numbers. Unfortunately, he’s always responsible for two ugly ones: losses and quarterback sacks.

In Jay Cutler’s four full quarters this preseason, he took nine sacks. If you extrapolate that over a 16-game schedule, Cutler figures to be sacked a whopping 144 times this year.

Martz’s moronic protection schemes will be a problem against Detroit’s revamped defensive front, featuring Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. The Lions were able to generate a ton of pressure against their opponents this preseason – a trend that will continue in this contest.

The Lions’ greatest weakness is their awful secondary. It’s just Louis Delmas and a bunch of scrubs. I would argue that most NFL secondaries suck nowadays amid the silly no-contact rules, but Detroit’s defensive backfield is especially bad. Cutler will be able to lead the Bears into the end zone a couple of times, but Detroit’s constant pressure will undoubtedly force him into a few interceptions.

RECAP: There are two reasons why I love the Lions. First of all, the wrong team is favored. Chicago stinks, and Detroit has a shot to win nine games this year. The six-point spread is a joke, and completely based on last year’s results.

Secondly, I can’t see the Bears being focused for this matchup. They swept the Lions last year, and have to be more concerned with upcoming battles against the Cowboys and Packers. I feel like this is way more of a statement game for Detroit. This is their opportunity to led the world know that they are for real.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Bears could be looking past the Lions; they have the Cowboys and Packers after this contest. This is a Breather Alert.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
The Lions are a publicly backed underdog. Say it ain’t so.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 60% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Bears have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Big Dog Dominance: Divisional underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 19-9 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.

Jim Schwartz is 0-4 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Jay Cutler is 3-6 ATS when favored by 7 or more.

Opening Line: Bears -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 34, Bears 26
Lions +6.5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 44 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bears 19, Lions 14

Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
49ers at Seahawks, Packers at Eagles, Cardinals at Rams, Cowboys at Redskins, Ravens at Jets, Chargers at Chiefs

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
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2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
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2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
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2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
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2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)