NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)

NFL Picks (2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 13, 3:25 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Seahawks -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): 49ers -3.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

This is a friendly reminder that you can win $350 in the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. To enter, just click the link and follow the rules. Entry is free, so make sure you sign up for a chance to win $350.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Barely anyone on the 49ers offense played this preseason. Frank Gore and Vernon Davis saw limited action, and Michael Crabtree never took the field. However, Alex Smith showed some improvement, leading the team on scoring drives against the Vikings and Raiders despite throwing to bums named Dominique Zigler and Nate Byham.

Smith should have a pretty decent game at Seattle, especially now that he’ll have all of his talented skill players back. The Seahawks are my favorite to finish last in the NFL in sacks, which won’t do anything for their half-terrible secondary. Seriously, why in the world is Lawyer Milloy starting for Seattle? Isn’t he like 60 years old?

Of course, the 49ers will focus primarily on feeding the ball to Frank Gore. Seattle surrendered at least 113 rushing yards to eight of their final 10 opponents in 2009, and have done nothing to improve in this department.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I really don’t understand how the Seahawks are going to block for Matt Hasselbeck. Russell Okung and Ray Willis are out, and John Clayton is reporting that Sean Locklear is on the trading block. That means that Seattle’s two starting tackles in this contest could be Tyler Polumbus (who failed miserably as Denver’s right tackle last year) and Chester Pitts (a journeyman guard).

I’d suggest that Pete Carroll should beg Mike Singletary to blitz only once every four downs like in two-hand touch football, but it might not even matter because San Francisco should be able to get to Matt Hasselbeck with a simple four-man rush.

I really don’t see how the Seahawks are going to score at all in this contest. The 49ers are going to shut down the run with ease, and the Seahawks don’t have the receivers who will be able to get open against most NFL secondaries. And as indicated earlier, Seattle’s offensive line is the biggest issue.

RECAP: Most football games are won in the trenches. This is an extremely weak area for the Seahawks. I honestly really hope Matt Hasselbeck doesn’t suffer a serious injury in this contest.

The 49ers should be able to walk away with an easy victory. This looks like a Week 1 gift from Vegas so bettors can build up their bankroll.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge; these teams hate each other.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

No one wants any part of the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on 49ers: 91% (175,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: Seahawks have won 10 of the last 14 meetings.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Small Favorite Dominance: Divisional favorites of 1-3 points are 14-3 ATS on kickoff weekend since 2000.

Mike Singletary is 7-2 ATS against divisional opponents.

Seahawks are 13-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 64 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Seahawks 3
49ers -3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 37 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Seahawks 31, 49ers 6

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Eagles -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Packers -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 6, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Buck-Toothed Kid and His Dad. 2) Brad Childress Blowdryer Man. 3) Not That There’s Anything Wrong With That Man.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers has been unstoppable this preseason. He was 41-of-53 for 470 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s my favorite to win MVP this year.

The problem with Green Bay’s offense last season was its pass protection. Rodgers took way too many sacks in the first half of the season. However, that issue was resolved when tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher rejoined the lineup. Rodgers barely saw any pressure the preseason and didn’t take a single sack.

If the Eagles want to win this game, they must place tons of pressure on Rodgers. Even with Trent Cole and Brandon Graham, that’s going to prove to be difficult. Rodgers’ pass protection is solid, and he has way too many weapons at his disposal. I have no idea who in Philadelphia’s pedestrian secondary is going to defend Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jermichael Finley.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Unlike the Packers, the Eagles do not have their pass protection issues figured out. In the second and third preseason games, Kevin Kolb felt constant pressure, which completely disrupted Philadelphia’s aerial attack. In those contests, Kolb was just 22-of-42 for 229 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.

I can’t see Philadelphia giving its quarterback a clean pocket in this contest. Even with Jamaal Jackson back, the interior of the line is still a big question mark (there’s no way Jackson is going to be 100 percent coming off a torn ACL in December), while dynamic pass-rusher Clay Matthews will run circles around lethargic and penalty-prone left tackle Jason Peters.

The Eagles should be able to put up some points because Green Bay’s secondary has its issues, but sustaining drives will be a big problem.

RECAP: Last summer, I had the Saints winning the Super Bowl in my season previews. I didn’t think the Eagles stood a chance when New Orleans came into town on Week 2. Philly lost by the score of 48-22.

I feel just as strongly about this contest. The Packers are my pick to win the Super Bowl, and I can’t see them tripping up against a rebuilding (though solid) Eagles squad.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Packers are the most publicly bet team in Week 1 as of Sunday afternoon.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 83% (208,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Packers are 22-10 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Eagles are 64-40 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 69 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Eagles 27
Packers -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 27, Eagles 20

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)
Line: Cardinals by 3.5. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Cardinals -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Cardinals -3.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “cardinal fans all think the rams are going to loss but we meet again in the season and i ask who will win when?”

Can I ask something? What the hell are you talking about?

2. “were kurt were is he i know one thing kurt is gone so who ever is your qb now must suck also lerry might not get the ball as much so the rams have abig chance at winning i forgot you guys lost to cold folk so i say rams all day”

This guy should start up his own football Web site. He could then pick games based on whether or not teams have lost to cold folk.

3. “The Falcon might go 14 & 2”

Atlanta will make history, as only one player will go 14-2 this year.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: As the second illiterate GameCenter person stated, “kurt is gone.” As is Matt Leinart. Though the Cardinals missed a golden opportunity by not trading for Donovan McNabb, they did the right thing in jettisoning Nick Lachey’s boyfriend (not that there’s anything wrong with that). Derek Anderson takes over as the starter, and I suddenly like Arizona’s chances slightly more than I did a month ago.

Anderson has been terrible the past two years in Cleveland, maintaining the accuracy of a drunk at the bar attempting to play darts. However, thanks in part to a much better supporting cast, Anderson may have somewhat sobered up because he completed 58.9 percent of his passes this preseason. He certainly wasn’t very good, but he was a billion times better than Leinart, who was content to continuously toss dump-off passes five yards in front of him.

The Rams can’t really generate much pressure on the quarterback or stop the run very well, so the Cardinals shouldn’t have much of a problem moving the chains consistently in this contest. Anderson will be able to get the ball downfield to Larry Fitzgerald. Whether those passes are anywhere near Fitzgerald is the only issue.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Sam Bradford was named the starting quarterback for the season opener. Bradford was 21-of-28 for 257 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in his final two preseason contests, though he faced New England’s vanilla defense and Baltimore scrubs.

There’s no questioning Bradford’s talent. The issue for me is his pass protection. I like how Rodger Saffold is looking, but he’s merely a rookie. Right tackle Jason Smith is a sieve in pass protection. Arizona’s defensive line, namely Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell, is very good, and will make life very difficult for Bradford in his NFL debut.

With barely any talent in the receiving corps, Bradford will really have to lean on Steven Jackson to stay out of too many third-and-long situations. Luckily for the rookie signal-caller, the Cardinals aren’t particularly effective versus the run; they were 25th in that department in 2009, and figure to be worse without Karlos Dansby unless rookies Dan Williams and Darryl Washington can step up right away.

RECAP: I like the direction the Rams are heading. They’re going to be a much better team in 2011, assuming they improve their offensive line, receiving corps and defense. But it’ll be difficult for them to beat a veteran squad like Arizona. For now anyway.

The Cardinals are the two-time defending NFC West champions, yet everyone is penciling the 49ers in for the division title. I can’t imagine a proud, veteran, battle-tested team like Arizona simply rolling over and dying. They have something to prove.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

I feel like the Cardinals have something to prove, since everyone is doubting them with Kurt Warner gone.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Close to equal action.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 63% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won the last 7 meetings.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Cardinals are 8-4 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Rams 17
Cardinals -3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 17, Rams 13

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Redskins -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Cowboys -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 12, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

1. “Well It dosen’t matter between Detroit And Chicago What The Question is who will win SuperBowl XLV If Detroit or Chicago tell me the answers”

Wait, you want the cities of Detroit and Chicago to tell you the answers?

2. “mag buffao suck is spiller gonna be able to run with that line? misi nd odrick gonna get to the QB nd the new marshal in twon gonna kill that tat secondary”

Not even the “new marshal in twon” can save “that tat” spelling disaster.

3. “Without Ladanian Tomilnson oN San Diego’s Roster and if 1 OF THESE TOO Teams got RB#21 That team would have Enough Chance for superbowl victories”

The lesson as always, don’t smoke crack before posting on NFL message boards.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys don’t look right. I don’t know if they’re bored, or if it’s because they’re simply poorly coached. Outside of the opening drive of the Hall of Fame game, they just haven’t been able to get a consistent drive going. Tony Romo, appearing completely uninterested, completed just 56.5 percent of his passes, and tossed more interceptions (2) than touchdowns (1) this preseason. I know the games don’t mean anything, but there’s really no excuse for Dallas’ offense looking so sloppy.

Perhaps the most concerning number is five – as in the number of sacks Romo has taken this preseason. Romo was sacked 20 times in 2008 and 34 in 2009, so five in what amounts to about 4-5 quarters is a high figure. Both the line and Romo are to blame, as Dallas’ offense simply can’t produce anything right now.

The Redskins recorded 40 sacks in 2009. Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo did most of the damage, but this was out of the 4-3 with Albert Haynesworth drawing double teams inside. Haynesworth has predictably transitioned poorly into the 3-4, so Carter and Orakpo may not be as successful this year. Still though, Dallas’ offensive line is in ruins right now, so Haynesworth’s ineffectiveness may not be as prevalent in this contest.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Last year, it was the Redskins who couldn’t pass protect in this rivalry. Now, it’s Dallas. Washington has shored up its offensive line with the additions of Jammal Brown, Trent Williams and Artis Hicks. DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff won’t be able to tee off on Donovan McNabb (who was sacked only once in the preseason) as they did with Jason Campbell last year.

That being said, the Redskins won’t be able to score at will against Dallas or anything. The Cowboys have a great defense, as McNabb very well knows after three losses to them with the Eagles last season. With no running game to speak of, McNabb will have to do lean heavily on Santana Moss and Chris Cooley.

RECAP: This figures to be an old-school NFC East defensive brawl. Dallas’ offense isn’t clicking right now, while Washington won’t be able to do much against the Cowboys’ forceful defense.

I’m taking the points. Eight of the past 12 meetings between these two squads have been decided by five points or fewer. Six of those contests were within a field goal. These teams always play each other closely, and I don’t see why this occasion will be any different, especially considering how absolutely insane Washington’s crowd will be for this divisional battle.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

Huge game for the Redskins. This is their chance to prove that they are legitimate contenders.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise that bettors love the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 68% (162,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Road Team has covered the past 5 meetings.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Tony Romo is 24-13 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 8-2 ATS as a starter in September.

Redskins are 4-10 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 60 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 16, Cowboys 13
Redskins +3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 40 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Redskins 13, Cowboys 7

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Line: Jets by 1.5. Total: 36.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Jets -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Jets -2.5.
Monday, Sept. 13, 7:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

If you’ve been following my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Thursday morning each week (Wednesday this week).

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Jets fans can relax. Darrelle Revis is back. Revis didn’t get anywhere close to the $170 million he was fishing for, but all that matters is that he’ll be around to terrorize No. 1 receivers in 2010.

With that in mind, the Ravens can simply forget about their new offensive toy. Revis will blanket Anquan Boldin, forcing Joe Flacco to look elsewhere. Fortunately for Baltimore, Flacco has tons of other options, including Derrick Mason, Ray Rice and a suddenly healthy Todd Heap, who quietly finished the 2009 campaign on a strong note.

The bad news for Baltimore is that opposing head coach Rex Ryan knows everything. He coached the Ravens when Flacco was a rookie, so he knows his strengths, weaknesses and tendencies.

With Ray Rice having to go up against last season’s No. 4 rush defense, Flacco will find himself in frequent long-yardage situations. Ryan knows better than anyone what sort of blitz packages to utilize in order to rattle Flacco, so don’t expect the Ravens to put many points on the scoreboard.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Flacco won’t be the only struggling quarterback in the first of two Monday night games this week. Mark Sanchez has been absolutely terrible this preseason. In addition to posting disgusting numbers in his final two preseason games (18-of-31, 151 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58.0%, 4.9 YPA), QB Nacho Taco has shown a glaring inability to identify the blitz – and this was against semi-vanilla defenses.

The Ravens are going to throw the kitchen sink at Sanchez, and based on what I’ve seen this August, I don’t think he’s going to respond well. If I’m right, New York’s offense may not score a single offensive point because no one runs on the Ravens, who ranked No. 1 versus the rush in 2009.

RECAP: I don’t like this game much, but I’m picking the Ravens to cover. Yes, I know I’m going against the whole former coach system I like, but Flacco won’t be the only quarterback struggling in this game, as indicated above.

Overall, I feel like the Ravens are the better team, and like the Giants, the Jets could feel too much pressure having to win the first game in their new stadium. As if expectations weren’t high enough in New York.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Rex Ryan was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens as recently as 2008. However, the Jets could be feeling the pressure of winning in a new stadium as sudden Super Bowl contenders.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

No one seems to be a fan of the QB Nacho.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 66% (197,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Sucky Stadium: Favorites opening up a new stadium are 3-8 ATS since 1997.

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Ravens are 12-8 ATS on the road under John Harbaugh.

Jets are 5-10 ATS in September home games since 2000 (2-0 in 2009).

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Cloudy, 65 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 13, Jets 10
Ravens +1.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 10, Jets 9 MISSING

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Preseason): Chargers -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Preseason): Chargers -7.
Monday, Sept. 13, 10:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’ll be able to watch two games, one of which will probably be a blowout (this one). Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to San Diego, home of the Kansas City Chiefs! Tonight, the Chargers take on the Chiefs. Guys, I’m really not familiar with these two teams because they don’t play in the same conference as my Eagles. I know the Chargers have Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson, but who’s on the Chiefs again? Trent Green and Priest Holmes?

Emmitt: Kevin Riles, you confuse. Very confuse. Priest Holmes replacement with Larry Johnson who now give way to Jamaal James. And Trent Green got knocked on his behind so many time, his behind darn near explosioned.

Reilly: Wow, Emmitt. I had no idea. Bob Griese, you’re the newest member of our broadcast team. What say you about this?

Griese: I like Trent Green. I like Trent Green because he’s a good football player.

Reilly: Bob, you’re really not helping me here. Maybe I should turn to Herm. He coached the Chiefs, after all.

Herm: Trent Green’s not the quarterback! Not Trent Green! Trent Green’s gone! Trent Green’s outta there! Trent Green hit the road! Trent Green said goodbye long ago! Trent Green’s not around! No more Trent Green! Trent Green’s history! He’s history!

Reilly: Jesus Christ, it’s only Week 1, and I feel like I’m going to have an aneurysm from listening to Herm. Emmitt, who should I start for fantasy, Priest Holmes or LaDainian Tomlinson?

Emmitt: I do not even know hows to play fantastic football!

Griese: I played fantasy football once! And… uhh…

Reilly: Looks like I may have to start both and bench Adrian Peterson.

Herm: That’s the wrong move! That’s incorrect! That’s bad! That’s not good! I’ll tell you who to start! Let me see the roster! Let me take a look! Let me see! I know who I’d start! I figured it out! I’ll tell you who to play! I can tell you who to play right now!

Reilly: Ahhhhhh!!!! Shut up!!!! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Because this is the 16th and final game I’m previewing this week, let’s make this section short and sweet. The Chiefs won’t be able to stop the Chargers. I just don’t see it happening. San Diego totaled 80 points in two meetings against Kansas City last year, and they’ve improved themselves by drafting Ryan Mathews as an upgrade over LaDainian Tomlinson. The Chiefs’ horrific defensive line was just 31st versus the rush in 2009 and hasn’t received a single upgrade this offseason.

Kansas City’s pass rush is just as bad as its ground defense. The team tallied just 22 sacks last year, good for 31st in the NFL. And again, there’s no sign that things will improve here. The Chargers are missing left tackle Marcus McNeill because of a holdout, but Philip Rivers is just too good to let that affect him.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Unlike the defense, the Chiefs’ scoring attack will be better this year. Dwayne Bowe is in shape; Dexter McCluster adds a dimension out of the slot; and stud running back Jamaal Charles should play more. The key word there is “should,” as Todd Haley still hasn’t demonstrated that he has any idea of what he’s doing.

Kansas City’s problem, however, remains the same as last year. Matt Cassel is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and he has one of the worst offensive lines in the league blocking for him.

A bottom-five quarterback and offensive line is not a good combination. The Chargers have some liabilities on defense, but they didn’t play a factor in the two meetings against the Chiefs. While San Diego posted 80 on the scoreboard in those two contests, it limited Kansas City to just 21 points.

RECAP: Unless the Chargers commit tons of sloppy mental errors, I really don’t see how this game can be close. The only thing I’m concerned about is San Diego’s notorious slow starts under Norv Turner, but this version of the Chiefs is by far the worst team the Chargers have played in any season opener since destroying Art Shell’s completely inept Raiders in 2006.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Is anyone shocked that the public is pounding the Chargers?

Percentage of money on San Diego: 88% (181,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Home Team has won 17 of the last 24 meetings (Chargers have won the last 5).

Opening Night Flop: Teams in home openers are 12-20 ATS since 2009.

Chiefs are 19-6 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.

Chiefs are 6-17 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 70 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chargers 31, Chiefs 17
Chargers -4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 21, Chargers 14

Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Vikings at Saints, Dolphins at Bills, Raiders at Titans, Bengals at Patriots, Panthers at Giants, Falcons at Steelers, Browns at Buccaneers, Broncos at Jaguars, Colts at Texans, Lions at Bears

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: Panthers +240 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Lions +240 (1.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$150

Live Dog: Redskins +170 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$170

Small Parlay: Bills +3, Steelers +2.5, Lions +6.5, Colts -2, Panthers +7, Chargers -4.5 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

2010 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)