NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)

NFL Picks (2009): 75-55-3 (+$5,175)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 9, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)
Line: Jaguars by 6.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Jaguars -10.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Jaguars -9.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 8 Recap: The good news is that I had a winning week overall (7-6). The bad news is that I lost 3.9 units in the process. I’ve actually lost $1,100 the past two weeks on the Dolphins alone. Two weeks ago, I suffered the worst beat I’ve ever had when Miami choked away a 24-3 lead. This past weekend, the Jets out-gained the Dolphins, 376-104, yet couldn’t cover the -3.5 because they allowed three defensive/special teams touchdowns. This just proves that you can handicap a game perfectly and still lose. I guess that’s why they call it gambling.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars’ game plan against the Titans was inexcusable. At what point during the week did Jack Del Rio and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter say to each other, “Let’s not get the ball to Maurice Jones-Drew until midway through the second quarter! The Titans won’t know what hit em!” Fail.

Expect Jones-Drew to get the rock early and often. The Chiefs are miserable versus the rush overall (30th), but have been a bit better against it recently. Still, Jones-Drew won’t be denied. He’ll have a huge game, setting up play-action opportunities for David Garrard.

Garrard went just 14-of-27 for 139 yards and two picks on Sunday. That had to be discouraging for fantasy owners who started Garrard because he had a monstrous performance against Tennessee the first time around. But Garrard has developed a weird home-road dichotomy. In three games at Jacksonville, Garrard has thrown for 940 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. In his four road tilts, Garrard has just 663 yards, no touchdowns and two picks.

If this trend continues, look for Garrard to torch a Kansas City secondary that simply cannot tackle.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I’m excited to see what the Chiefs’ offense looks like with a non-crappy running back starting in the backfield. Larry Johnson has been suspended for being a homophobic and egotistical idiot, so Jamaal Charles will be in the backfield. If Todd Haley had a brain, Charles would have been starting all along; he’s the superior talent and is a better fit for his offense.

The Jaguars are horrible versus the rush (24th), so I think Charles will have a big game both running and catching balls out of the backfield. This will set up favorable passing downs for the girly armed Matt Cassel. Luckily for Cassel, Jacksonville’s secondary can’t cover anyone.

The Jaguars also suck at putting pressure on the quarterback; they have just five sacks on the year, which is just pathetic. Cassel usually takes a lot of sacks, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen this Sunday.

RECAP: As you can see below, the Jaguars always struggle as large favorites; they’re 6-11 against the spread when favored by 6.5 or more the past five years.

Jacksonville has some talent and big names on offense, but they’re a wishy-washy team because they struggle so much in the trenches. Garnering five sacks and allowing 19 simply isn’t good.

That said, this spread seems ridiculously low to me. The Jaguars were -9.5 over the Rams, so why is this line only -6.5? Are the Chiefs three points better than St. Louis? I don’t think so. This almost seems like a Vegas trap game to entice tons of action on Jacksonville. Apparently it’s working.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

This very low spread has forced two-thirds action on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 70% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 12-7 ATS as a road underdog since 2007 (1-2 in 2009).

Jaguars are 11-7 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Jaguars are 6-11 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.

Opening Line: Jaguars -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Jaguars 24, Chiefs 23
Chiefs +6.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 41.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Jaguars 24, Chiefs 21

Arizona Cardinals (4-3) at Chicago Bears (4-3)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Bears -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Bears -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Vegas Recap: The Vegas sportsbooks lost millions in Week 7. They got some of that money back this past weekend, as teams that were highly backed by the public went 4-4 against the spread. The books won with the Eagles, 49ers, Raiders and Panthers covering, but lost cash with the Texans, Bears, Cowboys and Vikings beating the spread.

Remember, Vegas makes money off the juice and failed teasers/parlays, so 4-4 is pretty solid for them. However, it wasn’t nearly enough to offset the Week 7 bloodbath. One of these weeks, the house is going to clean up and make tons of money.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I watched most of the Browns-Bears game, and if I were a Chicago fan, I’d be completely embarrassed by how my offensive line played. It was ridiculous; Cleveland completely dominated the line of scrimmage and placed tons of pressure on Jay Cutler, who was forced into another interception.

The Cardinals bring lots of pressure on the quarterback (17 sacks), so this could once again be a problem area for the Bears. If Cutler is pressured, he has shown us that he will toss careless picks.

What saved the Bears offense last week was the ground attack. Matt Forte finally burst out of his cocoon to rush for 90 yards and two touchdowns. The problem is that while the Browns are 29th versus the rush, the Cardinals were first a week ago. They dropped down to 10th after getting steamrolled by the Panthers, but I’m going to chalk that up as a fluke for now; I just think Arizona didn’t show up for that contest because it didn’t take a 2-4 Carolina squad that was coming off a loss to Buffalo very seriously.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I don’t know what happened to Kurt Warner last week. Did he dress up as Jake Delhomme for Halloween? Was his son kidnapped as well? I never would have guessed that Warner would throw five picks against the Panthers. Carolina does have an underrated secondary, but Warner had been on fire going into the game.

Warner should rebound; as noted earlier, I just think the Cardinals overlooked a crappy Panthers team that was out for revenge. The problem is that the Bears are also pretty good versus the pass, ranking fifth against it.

Cedric Benson and Jamal Lewis have shown us that Chicago is vulnerable on the ground. The problem for Arizona is that it is not a strong rushing team. Tim Hightower is a poor runner averaging just 3.3 YPC. Chris Wells, meanwhile, is infinitely better on the ground, but isn’t seeing many touches because he’s a liability in the passing game. Unless the Cardinals fall behind early, they must utilize Wells as much as possible.

RECAP: Of both of these teams’ weaknesses, I think the Bears’ offensive line is most prevalent. If they couldn’t block the Browns and Antwan Odom-less Bengals, how are they going to keep the Cardinals out of the backfield?

One tidbit here: The Cardinals are the play according to handicapping legend Al McMordie, who came up with a great trend listed below. It essentially states that you play an underdog coming off a loss as a big favorite playing a team that just won a game. It actually worked last week with the Panthers beating Arizona straight up.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Two-thirds of the action is on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 64% (148,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Big Al Trend II: Underdogs coming off a loss as -7 or more, playing a team coming off a SU win are 65-36 ATS.

Bears are 18-11 ATS in November since 2001.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 59 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Bears 17
Cardinals +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 44.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Cardinals 41, Bears 21

Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Bengals -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Bengals -3.

Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. The theme for this segment is old rants. I think I’ve spoken about this the past few years: I just don’t understand why there is no Sunday night football game during the World Series. If the NFL is worried about ratings, they’re stupid. Is anyone outside of New York and Philadelphia watching the World Series right now? I doubt it. I’m a Phillies fan, and I want them to win, but baseball is so boring that I’d rather watch a Rams-Browns game than a Game 7 in the World Series. I’m being super duper serial right now.

2. I’ve ranted about how much the Buccaneers and Raheem Morris have sucked this year. I was debating on whether or not to pick Green Bay or Tampa Bay this week until I saw this report from Rotoworld:

The Bucs have practiced for just 2 1/2 hours since their loss to the Patriots on Oct. 25. Even though they are 0-7 and ready to trot out a rookie quarterback, the Bucs didn’t feel the need to practice during the bye week. Josh Freeman went back to his hometown of Kansas City last Thursday and the team will meet again on Tuesday. That doesn’t seem like ideal preparation for his first NFL start against the Packers on Sunday.

Epic fail.

3. Speaking of epic fails, does anyone else absolutely hate the new NFL.com Game Center? I like being able to rank the players and read the dumb comments on there (more of them later), but I can’t make out the stupid game chart. It’s just a bunch of crammed polygons. Take a look at how it appeared at one point during the Dallas-Seattle game:

What the hell is that? How is that 3rd-and-5? How am I supposed to make any sense of this?

Now that I think about it, this actually looks like a crappy painting that artsy-fartsy new-age hippies fawn over. Or perhaps it’s a pretty picture from JaMarcus Russell’s ~~coloring book~~ playbook. But whatever it is, it’s impossible to understand. Maybe that’s why Russell is throwing all of those picks. Do you think so?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens snapped a three-game losing streak by knocking off the undefeated Broncos. Perhaps that’s why they’re favored on the road here.

While everyone is talking about the defense’s reemergence as a reason for Baltimore’s revivial, I think it has more to do with Jared Gaither’s return to the lineup. The talented left tackle missed action in all three losses, but his presence limited Denver’s rabid defense to just one sack. It’s amazing how important the offensive line is, and that’s exactly why teams like the Lions and Bills will continue to lose every year. They just don’t get it.

The last time these teams met, the Ravens were missing Gaither and the Bengals had Antwan Odom, the league’s leading sacker at the time. Now, Gaither’s back and Odom’s on the IR.

I doubt the Bengals will be able to pressure Joe Flacco, who completed all but five passes against the Broncos. They’ll be able to contain the run pretty well – they rank eighth against it – but Ray Rice has proven that he can break one at any moment.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of shutting down the run, the Ravens did a remarkable job of doing so last week, limiting Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter to 55 yards on 18 carries. This was extremely important for Baltimore, as the team struggled to defend the rush right before the bye.

If Cedric Benson can’t do much on the ground, it’ll be a huge boost for Baltimore’s pass rush. The Ravens had been struggling to get pressure on the quarterback, but they sacked Kyle Orton twice and rattled him around last week. The Bengals have given up just 11 sacks in seven games, so getting to Carson Palmer could be more of a challenge, especially when you consider that Denver’s right tackle left the game early against the Ravens.

Once concern for Baltimore is its secondary. The defensive backfield played very well last week, but that was against Kyle Orton and his girly arm. Palmer can actually get the ball downfield, as the Ravens saw first-hand. This will be the real test for Baltimore’s secondary.

RECAP: When this line came out, I thought it was really shady. I suspected that the public would pound the Bengals. Apparently not. As I’m typing this, more than three-quarters of the action is on Baltimore.

I really don’t get that. These teams are evenly matched. The Bengals have the better record and they’ve beaten some really good squads, including these Ravens on the road.

Under Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati has been a team that always pulls through when no one believes in them. As home underdogs to a squad they’ve already beaten, I think they’ll be playing for respect – which is an important angle in the NFL.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

Big AFC North matchup. The only psychological edge I can find is that the Bengals might be disrespected because they’re home underdogs here.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

I thought this shady spread would entice action on the Bengals. Guess not.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 80% (185,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Bengals have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Ravens are 23-14 ATS in November.

Ravens are 10-4 ATS on the road under John Harbaugh.

Ravens are 11-21 ATS after a home game since 2005.

Marvin Lewis is 2-4 ATS after a bye.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Ravens 24
Bengals +3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 45.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Bengals 17, Ravens 7

Houston Texans (5-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0)
Line: Colts by 9. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Colts -12.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Colts -10.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some college football/baseball notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. If you haven’t noticed, I’ve been complaining about my bad beats. North Carolina blew a 24-6 lead and cover against Florida State last Thursday. And of course, the Dolphins had an epic meltdown for the ages, where they went from up 24-3 to down 12 as 6.5-point underdogs.

I didn’t bet the game, but I really feel for those who took Indiana +17 on Saturday. The Hoosiers led 21-7 at halftime but somehow managed to lose 42-24 – which blew the cover by one point.

There have been so many incredibly bad beats this year. I’ve never seen anything like this. I never thought I’d say this, but the Sage Rosencopter debaclation seems so insignificant now.

2. People will continue to hate on Tim Tebow for no apparent reason while showing tons of love for QB Dog Killer, but you won’t get that from me. With seemingly the entire world against him because he’s a good guy, I was glad to hear Tony Dungy state that he would draft Tebow high in the first round over guys like Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and even Matt Grothe.

“Franchise quarterbacks are hard to find, and I believe in this guy,” Dungy said.

That makes it Dungy, Bill Parcells, Jon Gruden and former GM Gil Brandt who have said that Tebow will be a top-10 pick. If Gruden is coaching the Redskins or Jaguars next year, he’s taking Tebow. Forget online porn; Gruden is imagining what it’ll be like to have Tebow running his Wildcat offense.

You can listen to people who simply hate on Tebow for no reason, or you can side with four well-respected football men who have been around the NFL for decades. Even if you think Tebow doesn’t deserve to be chosen toward the top of the 2010 NFL Draft, at some point you have to realize that it’s ignorant to be going against so many credible people.

3. It’s November and they’re still playing baseball? Bud Selig, you suck.

Speaking of suckage, the umpires in the playoffs have been horrific. Pitches aren’t thrown anywhere near the plate, yet they’re being called strikes. And that leads me to this question: If Fox has the technology to show us the strike zone and where the balls are thrown, why can’t baseball just use this instead of an umpire? It would be a lot more efficient and precise, and no one would ever be able to complain about balls and strikes anymore.

If you have the technology, I don’t understand why you’re not using it. Baseball is living in the Stone Age; it’s time to enter the 21st century. And hopefully I won’t be ranting about this in November next year.

4. I’m getting sick and tired of all these pitch visits the Yankees are using. You should be limited to a certain amount. It’s ridiculous and it’s really slowing the game down. If I were one of these crooked umpires, I’d call the Yankees for a delay of game and penalize them five yards.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: One of the stranger phenomenons to occur recently has been the shocking upgrade of Houston’s run defense. Though the Texans are ranked 21st in that department, they’ve shut down prominent backs like Frank Gore, Cedric Benson and Marshawn Lynch recently.

In two meetings with the Colts last year, the Texans surrendered an average of 117 rushing yards per game. That looks like it’s going to change.

Even with Joseph Addai not doing anything on the ground, Peyton Manning will still score a decent amount of points. He played like ~~Kerry Collins~~ a drunk last week, continuously missing deep throws and taking unnecessary sacks, but he won’t suck two weeks in a row. I could be wrong about that if the Texans pressure him constantly, but I can’t see that happening; they have just 11 sacks on the year (and just two at Buffalo last week).

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Losing Owen Daniels was a huge blow for the Texans. Daniels – not Andre Johnson – happened to be Matt Schaub’s most frequent target. Houston’s offense could suffer a setback without their Pro Bowl tight end in the lineup.

Then again, Schaub went berserk in the second half against the Bills without Daniels, so it’s entirely possible that Houston’s offense could keep clicking. After all, Schaub still has Johnson, Kevin Walter and two dynamic running backs at his disposal.

That said, let’s not forget how impressive Indianapolis’ defense has been this year. Excluding the Monday night contest against the Dolphins, the Colts have limited all of their foes to 17 points or less.

RECAP: There’s a major emotional edge here for the Texans because this is their Super Bowl. They want to knock off the Colts more than anything. Meanwhile, with a three-game lead in its division, Indianapolis could be more concerned with the Patriots and Ravens after this contest.

Because Houston always gets up for this rivalry, most of these matchups are always close. Four of the past five meetings (including the previous two) have been decided by six points or less. I’m taking the Texans, so let’s hope that trend becomes valid in five of the past six meetings.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

This is Houston’s Super Bowl. The Colts are in a Breather Alert with the Patriots and Ravens coming up after this.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Most people aren’t betting the farm on the Colts?

Percentage of money on Houston: 66% (195,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Colts have won 13 of the 14 meetings.

Gary Kubiak is 6-2 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+.

Texans are 14-24 ATS after a win (8-8 since 2007).

Opening Line: Colts -9.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Colts 20, Texans 16
Texans +9 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 49.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Colts 20, Texans 17

Miami Dolphins (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2)
Line: Patriots by 10.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Patriots -12.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Patriots -12.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: .
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I read on NFL.com’s new crappy GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “HENNE BETTER 2-4 SANCHEZ 4-3 IM SORRY 5-3 AGAINST 2-5 WOW HENNE IS REGULAR DAN MARINO”

This falls into the “let me put random capitalized words together and hope that it makes sense” category.

2. “buffalo can be winnin in the 4th and still los lol remember the pats game yall r weak lol hahaha”

You know what’s weak? Your spelling and grammar lol hahaha

3. “Wow……… Lion and Rams, it was like a disabled boxing match.”

No wonder Detroit lost; it was just Lion versus the Rams! How can one Lion beat 53 Rams!?

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Dolphins may have beaten the Jets last week, but it’s not like they had any success stopping New York’s offense. As I’ve mentioned repeatedly, the Jets out-gained Miami 376-104. Mark Sanchez was 20-of-35 for 265 yards and two touchdowns. And now the Dolphins have to contain Tom Brady. Ruh-roh.

Miami is having so much trouble stopping the pass because they’re starting two rookie corners and are getting nothing out of the free safety position. To put the clamps on Brady and his receivers, the Dolphins are going to have to pressure him consistently. They have 19 sacks on the year, but got to Sanchez only twice. New England, meanwhile, has surrendered only eight sacks all year. That pretty much tells you all you need to know.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I don’t think the Dolphins will be able to contain New England’s offense, so if they want to win, they’re going to have to hold on to the ball as long as possible.

The Patriots are somehow 27th versus the rush this year, so Miami could have some luck controlling the line of scrimmage and moving the chains with the running game. However, keep in mind that Bill Belichick is very familiar with the Wildcat. The Dolphins surprised New England the first time last year, but the Patriots were prepared in the second meeting. The Dolphins were held to just 62 rushing yards in that contest.

Something that’s going to help New England stop the run is Chad Henne. In his first road start, Henne was just 12-of-21 for 112 yards and a touchdown. Belichick normally thrives against rookie quarterbacks, so the Patriots will be able to focus more on Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.

RECAP: This may seem like a lot of points in a heated rivalry, but before you take Miami, keep in mind how awesome Belichick is coming off a bye.

Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for the Dolphins, their rookie quarterback and their Wildcat offense. The last three times Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for an opponent in the regular season, he’s covered the spread by an average of 14.6 points.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

Like the Colts, the Patriots could be looking past a divisional underdog looking to prove itself.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Equal action all week. The money has shifted toward New England.

Percentage of money on New England: 70% (172,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Patriots have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Road Rules: Tony Sparano is 3-0 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Dolphins are 7-2 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008.

Patriots are 28-15 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 44-33 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Tom Brady is 104-30 as a starter (80-52 ATS).

Bill Belichick is 7-3 ATS after a bye.

Opening Line: Patriots -10.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 57 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Dolphins 17
Patriots -10.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 46.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Patriots 27, Dolphins 17

Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)
Line: Packers by 9.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Packers -11.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Packers -11.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Packers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

As a special treat, more Notes from NFL.com GameCenter:

1. “int was a result or russell suckin. dumer u r the dumber u vil ”

A standard quote from your standard Raiders fan. Apparently, JaMarcus Russell has made everyone in the Bay Area dumber.

2. “raiders suck and raider fans swallow!!!!!!!!”

And don’t forget that Raider owner feasts on raw meat and drinks goat blood.

3. “JaMarcus s*u*c*k*s* the sweat off a dead man’s balls”

Al Davis is not dead!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers are 25th against the run and dead last versus the pass. They have 11 sacks in seven games, and only one player has more than 1.5 sacks.

The Packers have major issues with their offensive line, but I don’t think that’s going to be prevalent here. Tampa Bay is just so inept defensively in every way possible. Ryan Grant should have a big game on the ground, setting up Aaron Rodgers with manageable passing situations. The Buccaneers won’t be able to cover Donald Driver or Greg Jennings.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Josh Freeman will be starting his first game, so you would think that the Buccaneers practiced all throughout their bye week to get him ready for this contest. Well, apparently not. Tampa Bay practiced just 2 1/2 hours last week. I guess communist Malcolm Glazer didn’t want to pay extra money for electricity or something. After all, funding some European soccer team is much important, right Comrade Glazer?

I don’t like Freeman’s chances going against a 3-4 defense. He didn’t face too many of those in college, and it’s not like he’s getting prepared for it by his inept coaching staff.

Freeman should be in many obvious passing downs; the Buccaneers run the ball effectively, but the Packers are actually fourth against the rush. They’ve done a relatively good job on Adrian Peterson in two meetings. So, if Freeman is faced with many third-and-long situations, he could be forced into a few turnovers.

RECAP: I hate going against the effective Zero Heroes trend (see below), but that’s my plan here. Why? Because the Buccaneers are that horrible.

Check out this stat: The Bucs have played four teams that currently have winning records (Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots). In those four contests, they’ve been outscored 126-42! How terrible is that?

I don’t care about the Zero Heroes trend. I simply cannot endorse taking Tampa Bay against a good team. Besides, the Packers have made a living by slaughtering the tomato cans of the NFL (36-17 over the Rams; 26-0 over the Lions; 31-3 over the Browns).

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

It’s hard to say how much of an emotional loss that Vikings game was for the Packers; it seemed like they were more nervous than anything.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 87% (189,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Zero Heroes: 0-7 Teams or worse are 21-10 ATS since 2000 (12-5 ATS vs. non-losing foes).

Buccaneers are 13-7 ATS as a home underdog since 1996 (0-3 in 2009).

Opening Line: Packers -9.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Buccaneers 7
Packers -9.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 43.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Buccaneers 38, Packers 28

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
Line: Falcons by 9. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Falcons -13.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Falcons -13.5.

Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Nov. 2, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Community. 2) Urkel Kid. 3) Leaf Man Cock Blocker.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: With a week off, there’s no doubt in my mind that Washington has improved its Bingo Coast offense enough that they can consistently score 30 points every week.

That’s probably what Daniel Snyder believes anyway. The bottom line is that it doesn’t matter whom Snyder brings in; he could hire Alex Trebek to run his offense, and it still wouldn’t matter. The Redskins will continue to struggle as long as Jason Campbell is under center and the offensive line isn’t fixed.

The Falcons are 17th versus the rush, but Clinton Portis won’t be able to do anything because his dreadful blockers won’t be able to open up any holes for him. This means that Campbell will have to convert a bunch of first downs on his own. That’s definitely not happening.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Redskins’ defense has saved them from a potential 0-7 start. Think about it – the two games they’ve won have been against the Rams and Buccaneers. They held those two squads to seven and 13 points, respectively. If Washington’s stop unit sucked, St. Louis and Tampa Bay would have both came away with a victory.

The Redskins are pretty tough to run against with Albert Haynesworth clogging the middle, so unlike Monday night, Michael Turner won’t be piling up yards like crazy.

Of course that won’t bother the Falcons because Matt Ryan is a pretty talented quarterback who can win games on his own. The key to this matchup, however, will be Atlanta’s ability to keep Washington’s defenders out of the backfield. The Falcons had trouble with this on Monday night; New Orleans sacked Ryan three times and pressured him quite a bit. The kicker is that the Saints didn’t even have Sedrick Ellis commanding double teams.

The Redskins will give Ryan some trouble in the pocket. They have 18 sacks on the year. Haynesworth’s presence continues to draw attention away from Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo, who have 10 combined sacks already.

RECAP: If the Redskins, particularly Campbell, refrain from turning the ball over, they can cover and even win this game. However, I felt the same way about the Redskins-Eagles game two Monday nights ago and we all know what happened.

The Falcons are coming off an emotional loss and could sleepwalk through this contest. I’m taking the points here, but I can’t recommend laying multiple units because Campbell and his offensive line really suck.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Falcons are emotionally drained after putting everything they had into that Saints game and coming up short. Look for them to be flat against the Redskins.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Lots of early action on the Falcons. It’s close to 75 percent now.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 76% (179,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 8-2 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -10.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Falcons 16, Redskins 13
Redskins +9 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 41 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Falcons 31, Redskins 17

Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games
Lions at Seahawks, Panthers at Saints, Chargers at Giants, Titans at 49ers, Cowboys at Eagles, Steelers at Broncos

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 17

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 16

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 15, 2024): 8-7-1 (+$930)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 15, 2024): 10-5-1 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 117-109-9, 51.8% (-$3,210)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 29-37-1, 43.9% (-$2,035)
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2024 Season Over-Under: 111-108-5, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$990

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,538-3,261-205, 52.0% (+$18,460)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,136-1,022-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 578-507-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,970-2,942-79 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-7	Bears: 6-7	Bucs: 8-6	49ers: 8-6
Eagles: 8-6	Lions: 11-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 10-4
Giants: 5-8	Packers: 10-3	Panthers: 5-9	Rams: 7-7
Redskins: 6-7	Vikings: 6-7	Saints: 6-8	Seahawks: 8-5

Bills: 6-8	Bengals: 3-11	Colts: 7-7	Broncos: 9-5
Dolphins: 6-8	Browns: 5-9	Jaguars: 5-7	Chargers: 7-6
Jets: 8-6	Ravens: 7-6	Texans: 6-7	Chiefs: 5-8
Patriots: 8-4	Steelers: 7-7	Titans: 8-5	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 28-35 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 25-20 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 40-36 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 26-37 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 46-64 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-10 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-20 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)