NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)

NFL Picks (2009): 75-55-3 (+$5,175)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 9, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games

Detroit Lions (1-6) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
Line: Seahawks by 10.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Seahawks -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Seahawks -9.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s a new month, so if you had a poor picking month on DraftDebacled.com, you can start over for a chance win some money in November.

If you don’t know what I’m talking about, we are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 9 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 39 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have talent on offense, but everyone is hurt. Matthew Stafford will play, but his knee is still a concern. Calvin Johnson didn’t look good at all in limited practice this past week, so his status is in doubt. Kevin Smith has two separate injuries that knocked him out of the lineup during the loss to the Rams.

With Megatron and Smith unavailable, Stafford had no one to work with. The Lions consequently struggled to sustain drives. The receivers Stafford had at his disposal dropped close to 10 passes.

The Lions couldn’t score against the Rams, so unless Megatron is back in the lineup and Smith suddenly gets Claire Bennet’s regeneration ability, I can’t see Detroit having much success against the Seahawks. And even if Megatron and Smith play, nothing is a guarantee; the Seahawks have 18 sacks on the year and will be going up against an offensive line that has surrendered 24 sacks already.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Like the Lions, the Seahawks have massive offensive line problems. Walter Jones may never play again, while Sean Locklear has been out since Week 2.

The difference here is that Detroit’s pass rush isn’t nearly as potent. No one on the team has more than 3.5 sacks, and the Lions as a whole couldn’t muster a single sack on the freaking Rams.

The Lions are dead last versus the run, so I think we could see a rare good game from Julius Jones. And if not, it might not even matter because Matt Hasselbeck is more than capable of torching Detroit’s dreadful secondary.

RECAP: Remember Seattle’s 41-0 thrashing of Jacksonville a few weeks back? I think history repeats itself. This is a major statement game for the Seahawks, who are still somehow in the NFC West divisional race.

Keep in mind how good the Seahawks usually are at home. I see this as an easy blowout, especially if Megatron is out.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

It may seem like the Seahawks are out of it, but they’re just two back of the divisional lead. This will be a statement game for them after getting blown out twice in a row.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

People have begun to pound the Seahawks. Can’t say I’m shocked.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 81% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Lions are 11-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 (1-4 in 2009).

Lions are 3-10 ATS against losing teams the previous 13 instances.

Seahawks are 10-3 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Matt Hasselbeck is 8-3 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Opening Line: Seahawks -10.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Showers, 50 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Seahawks 35, Lions 0
Seahawks -10.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 42 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Seahawks 32, Lions 20

Carolina Panthers (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-0)
Line: Saints by 13. Total: 51.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Saints -15.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Saints -15.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition: Letter From Miss Juliet.

I posted this on the forum in May, but traffic in the summer is down, so most of you haven’t seen this. Unfortunately, it’s been almost seven months, and I still haven’t gotten any nude photos from Miss Juliet. I’m still waiting, Miss Juliet. I’m still waiting.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I don’t know how it happened, but Jake Delhomme actually refrained from throwing a pick last weekend. I swear it’s true.

I guess you can’t toss any picks if you don’t throw the ball. Delhomme was limited to just 14 attempts because Carolina’s ground attack was doing all of the work. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for 245 rushing yards on 40 carries.

Can Williams and Stewart repeat this? As long as they get the ball enough, I think so. The Saints struggled to stop the run Monday night against the Falcons, yielding 151 yards on just 20 carries to Michael Turner. New Orleans has been solid against ground attacks all year, but without Sedrick Ellis, they’ve become pretty poor at stopping the run again.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Panthers better keep moving the chains and controlling the clock because their defense won’t be able to stop the Saints.

Drew Brees is on fire right now, so even though Carolina just forced Kurt Warner into five interceptions, Brees won’t be slowed down. There’s a huge difference between the offensive lines of the Saints and Cardinals. Warner was pressured often by Julius Peppers. Brees should remain relatively clean all afternoon.

Brees may not even have to throw that much anyway. The Panthers struggle versus the run, so Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell might be the guys doing all of the work in this contest.

RECAP: This line is too low, so if you like Carolina, you’re not getting proper value. Think about it – the Saints were -12 over the Falcons, so Vegas is telling us that Atlanta is just 1.5 points better than the Panthers. That’s just stupid.

I’m saying this because I do like the Panthers to cover. These squads know each other very well, so 13.5 points is still too many points for a fierce divisional rivalry.

Also keep in mind that the Saints, who will continue to be without their best defensive player, could be a little flat off a big victory against the Falcons. I don’t think they’re going to take Carolina seriously, so the Panthers should cover as long as Delhomme doesn’t throw more than one interception. That, of course, is a huge if.

SURVIVOR PICK: It took me a while to figure this out. I’ve been debating between Saints over Panthers and Falcons over Redskins. The former won out.

I hate using divisional matchups for my survivor picks, but I was also scared of the Falcons being flat against a tough Redskins defense coming off a bye.

It came down to this: I’d be more shocked if the Panthers went into New Orleans and won than if Atlanta suffered a loss to Washington.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

With the Saints three games ahead of everyone in the NFC South, this contest means very little to them. The Panthers will be hungrier for a win.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Two-thirds of the money is on the host. That seems low to me.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 64% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road team has won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

Monday Magic: Sean Payton is 4-0 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Panthers are 28-22 ATS as an underdog the previous 50 instances.

John Fox is 3-1 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+.

Jake Delhomme is 30-18 ATS on the road.

Jake Delhomme is 23-11 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Panthers are 2-4 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2008.

Saints are 26-39 ATS at home since 2001 (9-3 since 2008).

Saints are 19-28 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Drew Brees is 20-9 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -14.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Panthers 24
Panthers +13 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 51.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Survivor Pick (8-0)
Saints 30, Panthers 20

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at New York Giants (5-3)
Line: Giants by 5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Giants -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Giants -6.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Chargers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for the Video of the Week segment. I’d like to thank forum member CallmetheBrees for sending over this awesome Douche Bag of the Year Video. You may not know what’s going on at first, so you’ll have to watch this 23-second video more than once. But I seriously could watch this 1,000 times in a row, and I’d laugh every single time.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning suffered a heel injury against the Chiefs in Week 4. He says it’s not affecting him, but in the three contests since he’s been hurt, Eli has gone a combined 53-of-107, 643 yards, three touchdowns and six picks. That’s a completion percentage of 49.5 and a YPA of 6.0. Eli is a liar.

Eli needs time off for his heel to recover. But that won’t happen until the Giants’ Week 10 bye. With one more contest to go, New York will have to weather the storm one final time.

The Giants need to establish the run early and often to help Eli out. They’ve struggled to rush the ball in this three-game losing streak, so it’s no coincidence that they’ve battled the Saints (with Sedrick Ellis), Cardinals and Eagles – three teams that contain ground attacks prolifically. The Chargers are susceptible to the run, ranking 16th in that department without stud nose tackle Jamal Williams. In fact, San Diego has surrendered at least 99 rushing yards in every game this year.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Eli’s heel is the problem on offense. On defense, it’s a pedestrian pass rush and the play of the safeties. With Kenny Phillips out, the Giants have really struggled to stop the deep ball. Guess what the Chargers do best?

To win this game, New York needs to get to Philip Rivers. Rivers hasn’t felt any pressure in two weeks because he’s battled the Chiefs and Raiders. The Giants could have more luck, but they couldn’t even put much get to Donovan McNabb, whose offensive front isn’t very good.

One thing the Giants will be able to do is stop the run. They gave up 157 yards on 19 carries to LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver last week, but now they get LaDainian Tomlinson, whose running lanes have been non-existent this year.

RECAP: The Giants have legitimate problems. A good team doesn’t get blown out three times in a row. Eli is hurt and the defense stinks.

Luckily for us, the public hasn’t caught on yet (and quite frankly, I’m a week too late to the party). Vegas has caught on – they set the opening line at 3.5 – but gamblers have bet this spread up to five. Let’s take advantage of the public’s ignorance.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

About three-quarters of the public still isn’t convinced that the Giants are bad.

Percentage of money on New York: 70% (150,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Winning Coach: Tom Coughlin is 5-2 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite.

Giants are 14-8 ATS after a loss since 2005.

Giants are 6-2 ATS after a double-digit loss since 2007.

Opening Line: Giants -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Giants 20
Chargers +5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 48 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Chargers 21, Giants 20

Tennessee Titans (1-6) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4)
Line: 49ers by 5. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): 49ers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): 49ers -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Titans.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

If you missed it the past few weeks, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 8 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, Emmitt and several members of the Patriots enjoy their bye week by guest starring on TV shows.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The public doesn’t pay attention to offensive linemen, so the people responsible for placing more than 80 percent of the money on the 49ers may not be aware that Joe Staley is out. Staley is a third-year left tackle who has been having a great season. In seven games, Staley allowed just two sacks, effectively protecting the blind side of Shaun Hill and Alex Smith.

With Staley out, San Francisco is down two tackles (right tackle Tony Pashos is on IR). That’s huge. It means that Barry Sims, a 35-year-old who really struggled last year (10.5 sacks allowed) will have to protect Smith’s blindside. That’s not good.

The Titans, who have had problems putting pressure on the quarterback all year, finally got a consistent pass rush against David Garrard and his pedestrian offensive line. They should be able to do the same thing to Smith.

Of course, Mike Singletary will attempt to establish the run. That was going to be difficult already without Staley and Pashos, but now Frank Gore has to go up against a pretty solid Tennessee rush defense. Unless he breaks one or two long gains like Maurice Jones-Drew, I can’t see Gore having a solid game.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: All Vince Young does is win football games. Well, Young scrambles a lot too, which opens up wider running lanes for his backs. That helps.

The 49ers are seventh versus the run, but they’re going to have to contain Young and Chris Johnson at the same time. The Jaguars had no answer for that, and I doubt San Francisco will.

When Young has to throw, he’ll once again connect on short passes to his receivers to move the chains. Young misfired on just three of his 18 attempts last week. I think he’ll have a similar performance this Sunday.

RECAP: This was going to be my November NFL Pick of the Month. I loved Tennessee in this situation.

The 49ers, who just lost their left tackle, suffered an emotional defeat at Indianapolis. They brought everything to the table and led throughout, but they just couldn’t get it done at the very end. Now, San Francisco has to muster that same energy against a crappy 1-6 squad? That’s not happening.

And here’s the thing. The Titans aren’t crappy. They almost beat the Steelers in Week 1. They almost knocked off the then 2-0 Jets two weeks later. They battled the Texans close in between. They played the Colts tough until they committed too many dumb penalties to let Peyton Manning score a backbreaking touchdown at the end of the first half. Don’t pay attention to the Jaguars and Patriots blowouts; those were predictable huge letdown games for them.

With a new quarterback under center and a victory under their belts, the Titans are now re-energized. They played with tremendous passion against the Jaguars, and I think it’ll carry over to this contest.

On top of everything, there’s shady line movement. The spread opened at -5.5, but now it’s down to -4 despite the fact that everyone is betting the 49ers like they know the final score of the game.

So, why isn’t this my November NFL Pick of the Month? I needed to see one stat – Jeff Fisher’s record on the West Coast.

It’s not pretty. Since 1999, Fisher is 1-9 both straight up and against the spread on the Pacific Coast, which includes two playoff losses.

This sucks. I absolutely love the Titans here, but that one trend is preventing me from making an 8-unit play on them. So let’s just cut the unit output in half.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The 49ers put everything into that Colts game and came up a bit short despite leading most of the way. They’ll be flat against an energized Titans team.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No one a believer of Vince Young yet?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 80% (153,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Titans are 18-11 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.

Vince Young is 19-11 as a starter (19-11 ATS).

Vince Young is 7-3 ATS as a road dog.

Jeff Fisher is 1-9 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.

Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 62 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Titans 23, 49ers 13
Titans +5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 40.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Titans 34, 49ers 27

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 50.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Eagles -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Eagles -3.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: .
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same.

It’s a miracle! It’s a miracle! Bo-Bo wins! Bo-Bo wins! For the first time in weeks, Bo-Bo decided to move Jacoby Jones and Kelley Washington out of his lineup, and it worked.

Bo-Bo won 90-76. Here’s his lineup and the points each player scored for him:

QB: Mark Sanchez (24)
RB1: Michael Turner (23)
RB2: Marshawn Lynch (4)
WR1: Terrell Owens (11)
WR2: Patrick Crayton (8)
WR3: Earl Bennett (2)
TE: John Carlson (3)
K: David Akers (9)
DEF: Vikings Defense (6)

Imagine if Bo-Bo hadn’t been going with Washington and Jones all year. Instead of 2-6, he could be 3-5 or maybe even 4-4 right now!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Miles Austin-Jones has really brought this Dallas offense to life. The Cowboys have scored an average of 33.7 points since Austin-Jones took over as the No. 1 receiver. Tony Romo is on fire, and he could get even hotter because once teams start doubling Austin-Jones, Jason Witten will be open down the middle of the field more often.

With that said, I’m still not convinced that Dallas’ offensive line problems are fixed. The Cowboys’ offensive surge has come against three pretty soft defenses. The Eagles get after the quarterback pretty well (23 sacks), so I’m curious to see how much pressure Romo has to deal with.

The offensive line isn’t the only potential problem; I don’t think the Cowboys will be able to run the football. Marion Barber looks terrible because Wade Phillips refuses to rest him to heal his strained quad. Tashard Choice would be the better option here, but Mr. Turkey Neck apparently disagrees. The Eagles are second versus the rush anyway.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Like Romo, Donovan McNabb is playing unbelivably well right now. He was nearly flawless against the Giants, going 17-of-23 for 240 yards and three touchdowns. With the weapons McNabb has around him, no one should be surprised by this.

The key matchup in this contest is Dallas’ pass rush versus Philadelphia’s offensive line. The Cowboys struggled to get to the quarterback early in the year, but since their bye, they’ve really improved in this area. The Eagles, meanwhile, couldn’t block the Raiders three weeks ago, but have also improved in that particular department. Still, I don’t trust Jason “Derrick Coleman” Peters at all to keep DeMarcus Ware out of the backfield.

Of course, the Eagles can counter Dallas’ pass rush with some screens. Brian Westbrook has been cleared to play, so Andy Reid will be able to use him in that regard.

RECAP: I love the Eagles here. They’re playing with fire and tons of confidence right now. The Cowboys, meanwhile, will be in a dynamic change, going on the road for the first time in nearly a month.

The Eagles are 5-1 against the spread versus Dallas the past three years. Philly owns Dallas, especially in the City of Heavy Taxation and Crooked Government Employees (welcome to the family, DA Seth Williams).

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles are playing with fire right now. They usually choke when expectations are high, but they own the Cowboys.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Slight edge on the Eagles early on, but the public has really started pounding them.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 85% (181,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 13 of the last 18 meetings (Eagles 5-1 ATS vs. Cowboys since 2006).

Tony Romo is 22-11 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 11-8 ATS on the road.

Eagles are 60-35 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 28-16 ATS vs. NFC East opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Clear, 50 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Cowboys 24
Eagles -3 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 50 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Cowboys 20, Eagles 16

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (6-1)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Broncos -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Steelers -3.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see the Steelers and Broncos battle in what should be a thrilling game. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Pittsburgh, the city that never sleeps! Tonight, the Pittsburgh Steelers battle the Denver Broncos. Guys, I’m down 50 points in my fantasy league and I have Jay Cutler from the Broncos going tonight. Do I have a chance? Damn it, I should have started Vince Young!

Emmitt: Vince Young, like his name say, is obviously very young, but what happen when he grow old? Will his name become Vince Old? I do not understand these.

Reilly: Damn it, Emmitt! I want to know if Jay Cutler has a shot at scoring 50 points for me in fantasy tonight! Coach, what do you say?

Herm: Look at Vince Young’s name! Look at it! Look at the last name! See it? See it there? That means Vince Young is like the song! Vince will be forever not old! I mean Vince Young will be forever Young! Forever Young!

Reilly: Coach, you’re really starting to piss me off here. Now this is strange. My fantasy box score is telling me that Cutler already scored 14 points for me. Must be a mistake. Let’s hope whatever he scores tonight for the Broncos gets tacked on to the 14. So now, I only need Cutler to score 36! Ha!

Emmitt: Karl Reilly, I do not understand your obsessive with fantastic football. I try fantastic football this year and I got confuse. Very confuse. I try to draft Adrian Peterson in the fourth round of my league, but the other people laugh and say he is off the board. I have not even seened a board!

Reilly: I actually did the same thing, Emmitt. Coach, what about you?

Herm: Here’s the thing! Here’s…

Reilly: We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DENVER OFFENSE: In my 2009 NFL Power Rankings: Week 9, I said this was the beginning of the end for the Broncos. Kyle Orton was finally exposed as a liability against the Ravens, and something that was even more worrisome for Denver fans was the offensive line.

The front just couldn’t block Baltimore. Now, right tackle Ryan Harris is out, meaning that former undrafted free agent Tyler Polumbus will have to make his first NFL start against LaMarr Woodley. Ruh-roh.

With no running game to speak of – the Steelers are first against the rush – Orton will have to convert third-and-long situations on his own. That’s just not happening. As we saw last week, he doesn’t have the arm strength to get the ball downfield against a great defense. And as with the Baltimore game, Orton won’t have much time in the pocket against Pittsburgh’s blitz schemes.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Another concern I have for the Broncos is their secondary. Their old defensive backfield has played great thus far, but they won’t be able to last the entire year. Brian Dawkins, who’s playing on fumes right now, will quickly disintegrate in the next few weeks.

Joe Flacco took advantage of this and I believe Ben Roethlisberger will as well. To counter this, the Broncos are really going to have to get after Roethlisberger. They might be able to get to him, but Big Ben is really good at breaking out of tackles.

Don’t expect much out of Pittsburgh’s ground attack; Denver is third against the run.

RECAP: Like I said, this might be the beginning of the end of the Broncos. I bet heavily on them in their two consecutive home victories against the Cowboys and Patriots because they were playing with fire at the time. But things are different now. They were just blown out, so they could be doubting themselves here.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

It’s possible the Broncos could begin doubting themselves in the wake of their first loss (which happened to be a blowout).

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Most of the action is on the visitor. Not a surprise.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 79% (246,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Ben Roethlisberger is 65-24 as a starter (50-38 ATS).

Broncos are 19-10 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 29 instances.

Broncos are 5-10 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Broncos 17
Steelers -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 41 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Steelers 28, Broncos 10

Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games
Chiefs at Jaguars, Cardinals at Bears, Ravens at Bengals, Texans at Colts, Dolphins at Patriots, Packers at Buccaneers, Redskins at Falcons

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: Texans +310 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Titans +170 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$170

Live Dog: Chargers +190 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$190

Pyschological Edge Parlay: Texans +9, Redskins +10, Seahawks -10, Titans +4, Eagles -3, Steelers -3 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 22

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)