NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)

NFL Picks (2009): 40-23-2 (+$4,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 5, 4:20 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

New York Jets (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0)
Line: Saints by 7.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Saints -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Saints -4.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

In addition to an E-mail of the Week, I’m also going to post a Video of the Week. SupremeWorldEmperor linked to this on the forum. After the 15-second ad, it’s a parody of the NFL and the Oregon Trail.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I believe I was the first person in the entire universe to equate this 2009 Jets team to the 2008 Ravens. OK, maybe not, but I’ve been saying it for a few weeks now. Unfortunately for New York, if they are in fact the 2008 Ravens, they will lose this game.

Last year, Baltimore went into Indianapolis and lost 31-3. Peyton Manning torched the Ravens’ secondary, and I believe Drew Brees will do the same thing to the Jets.

Rex Ryan loves to bring the blitz. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to blitz Brees. If the Jets attempt to do so, he’s going to burn them. He’s too good, his offensive line is amazing, and he has a solid running game by his side to support him.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez has done a great job managing games and converting third downs thus far, but can he beat a team in a shootout? Eventually, he’ll be able to, but he’s so young that it’s pretty difficult to expect him to match Brees point for point.

Like Joe Flacco last year, I don’t think Sanchez will be able to keep up with the Saints. And it’s not like New Orleans has a bad defense either; the Saints are coming off a shutout (Buffalo’s lone touchdown came on special teams), and rank seventh and eighth against the run and the pass, respectively. Sanchez has not faced a defense as talented as New Orleans’ yet.

RECAP: The Saints seem to match up pretty well against the Jets. If Sanchez were more seasoned, this would be a tougher game to call, but I’m pretty confident that New Orleans will take care of business at home going into its bye.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A battle of 3-0 teams. No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
The public is leaning toward the offensive team. No surprise there.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 62% (142,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Hello, Goodbye: Favorites of 6.5 or more are 31-6 ATS going into a bye.

Saints are 24-38 ATS at home since 2001 (7-2 since 2008).

Saints are 17-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2001 (5-1 since 2008).

Drew Brees is 19-8 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -6.5.

Opening Total: .

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Saints 34, Jets 10
Saints -7.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 46 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Saints 24, Jets 10

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Dolphins -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Pick (No Pennington).
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

If you missed it the past two weeks, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 3 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, Emmitt takes on the Eagles, who have made two controversial signings to take down the 2-0 Patriots.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’ve been criticizing Buffalo’s offensive line this entire offseason, so I wasn’t shocked at all to see the Saints abuse Trent Edwards’ blockers for four sacks on Sunday. The Dolphins have the horses to get to the quarterback consistently, so there might be too much pressure in Edwards’ face for Terrell Owens to see an ample amount of touches. And you know what happens when Owens’ numbers are limited…

The Bills get Marshawn Lynch back from suspension, but that’s not a good thing. Well, it can be if Dick Jauron keeps Fred Jackson in as the starter and allows Lynch to plow away in short-yardage situations. However, Jauron may not be cunning enough to realize that Jackson is his most talented offensive player. The Dolphins stop the run well, so they need a pass-catching back like Jackson to move the chains. Lynch won’t be an effective option here.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Bills are favored because Chad Pennington is out for the year with a shoulder injury. However, Chad Henne won’t affect Miami’s game plan, which is running the ball out of standard and Wildcat formations, and having their quarterback convert third downs. This will be effective because Buffalo is 24th versus the rush.

Besides, I don’t think Henne is that bad anyway. I know he tossed that pick-six to Eric Weddle, but he had no reps during the week and he was just trying to make something happen down 16-6 with less than six minutes remaining in regulation. After that interception, Henne came back and led the Dolphins on a 10-play, 76-yard touchdown drive.

As long as his running game working, I don’t see how Henne can be any worse than Pennington would be in this contest. Henne actually has good arm strength, so unlike Pennington, he can stretch the field. Given that the Bills will be missing Leodis McKelvin and Donte Whitner, this could be a huge problem for them.

RECAP: The public is all over the Bills because Chad Pennington is out. I’ll be all over the Dolphins because I love backing a team starting its backup quarterback for the first time in an underdog role.

What generally happens is the team with the backup quarterback knows it has to bring 110 percent to the table, while the opposing squad figures that things might be easier without the starter.

The betting public’s overreaction has given us tremendous value with the Dolphins, who should probably be 3-point favorites in this contest. This proud veteran Miami team will be desperate to avoid an 0-4 start.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Bills caught a break with Chad Pennington out. Who is Chad Henne? They don’t need to bring everything to win this game…

The Vegas. Edge: None.
With Chad Pennington out, the public is shading the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 59% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Bills have won 7 of the last 10 meetings (Dolphins won the last 2).

Bills are 14-4 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Dolphins are 10-3 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 13 instances.

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Dolphins 27, Bills 17
Dolphins PK (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 37.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Dolphins 38, Bills 10

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Cowboys -1.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Sept. 28, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) People Who Complain About Racism in Cartoons. 2) My Friend and Me. 3) Me.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys’ offense has looked great for one half this year. Tony Romo torched Tampa Bay’s awful secondary two weeks ago. Since then, all he has done is throw interceptions and dumb passes across the field that most teams would turn into a pick-six. I can’t really say that Romo misses Terrell Owens because Owens isn’t doing anything this year, but something seems really off.

Luckily, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice bailed out Romo on Monday night against a horrific Carolina defense. Don’t count on that again. I don’t know how they’re doing it, but the Broncos have done a phenomenal job shutting down the run thus far, holding opposing backs to 3.2 yards per carry.

It looks like Choice will be Dallas’ primary ball-carrier this week. Marion Barber has swelling in his quad and Jones has a sprained PCL. I like Choice, but what if he gets banged up? Or what if he needs a breather? The Cowboys could be in trouble here.

If Dallas has problems running the ball and Romo is consequently in long-yardage situations, the Broncos’ hectic pass rush (10 sacks) should be able to force him into a turnover or two.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Cowboys’ problem this year is the same one they had at the end of last season. They cannot stop the run. They’re giving up 4.9 yards per carry, and it makes you wonder what Jeff Davidson was thinking by giving DeAngelo Williams only 11 rushes.

The Broncos have run the ball a lot this year and have done so effectively with Knowshon Moreno leading the way. Denver’s offensive line is arguably the NFL’s best, so look for them to pound the rock for tons of big gains.

Assuming Denver’s ground attack is working, Kyle Orton’s play-action fakes should be able to neutralize Dallas’ pass rush. Orton still throws like a 12-year-old girl, but if all he has to do is convert a bunch of 3rd-and-2s and 3rd-and-3s, that’s definitely not a problem.

RECAP: I can’t believe I’m saying this because I’ve been down on them all offseason, but I love the Broncos here for three reasons:

First, this is a statement game for Denver. Every single media outlet (including this one) is saying that the team’s 3-0 start is a fluke and that the Bengals should have won in Week 1. While that may be true, this is the Broncos’ opportunity to let the nation know that they are for real.

Second, this is a classic matchup between overrated versus underrated. The public loves the overrated Cowboys in this game because of their offense. However, Dallas’ defense is garbage and will be torn up by Denver’s ground attack. The Broncos’ defense has been amazing this season, so if they can keep it up, they’ll win this game.

And third, this line is out of control. What have the Cowboys done to be 3-point favorites at Denver? Beat the horrific Buccaneers and squeak by the tanking Panthers? Dallas’ two victories have come against teams that are a combined 0-6. We’re getting a lot of value here with the Broncos because based on talent alone, this spread should be Denver -2 or -3.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

The Broncos are 3-0, yet everyone (including myself) is saying that their record is a fluke and that they shouldn’t have beaten the Bengals. While that may be true, this will definitely be a statement game for them against the Cowboys.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

It should not surprise you that the public is all over the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 76% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Cowboys are 10-5 ATS after a loss since 2006.

Tony Romo is 20-9 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 11-6 ATS on the road.

Wade Phillips is 1-3 ATS after a Monday night game.

Broncos are 17-10 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 25 instances.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Cowboys 13
Broncos +3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 42 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Broncos 17, Cowboys 10

St. Louis Rams (0-3) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): 49ers -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): 49ers -9.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

We are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 4 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 92 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Frank Gore is out, but that hasn’t affected this spread at all. Glen Coffee is a talented runner and should be able to trample St. Louis’ pedestrian run defense without much of a problem.

With Coffee ripping off long gains, Shaun Hill will be able to convert third downs with ease. This was a problem against the Vikings, but that’s because the 49ers couldn’t run the ball against the Williams Wall. St. Louis’ defense doesn’t bring much pressure (3 sacks), so when Hill has to throw, he’ll have all day in the pocket.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: It looks like Kyle Boller will start this game. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Boller is an upgrade over the turnover-prone Marc Bulger.

Finding any running lanes against San Francisco’s great defense will be a problem for Steven Jackson, but Jackson needs at least 25 touches in this contest if St. Louis wants to win. The Rams will have to stick with the run and throw passes to Jackson out of the backfield. If they fail to do this and put Boller in third-and-long situations, Justin Smith and San Francisco’s offensive front are going to eat Boller alive.

RECAP: The 49ers are obviously the better team, but believe it or not, I’m taking the Rams.

I like San Francisco in an underdog role, but asking them to cover 10 points with its conservative offense is pretty ridiculous. Also, the 49ers are going to have major problems getting up for this game because they put tons of emotion into last week’s battle and came away with a loss. Now they have to take on a crap Rams squad as a big favorite. San Francisco will not be at 100 percent here.

I understand that going with the Rams is risky – and that’s why this selection is three units instead of five – but if you think about it, they’ve been pretty competitive against the Redskins and Packers (the Green Bay game was close for a while). I don’t think they’re as bad as some of the other 0-3 teams out there.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The 49ers put so much into last week’s game against the Vikings. They lost in the final few seconds, and now they have to come back against the lowly Rams as huge favorites. I can’t see them being completely focused. The 49ers also have the Falcons coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

About four-fifths of the action is on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 83% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Rams are 20-37 ATS in road games since 2001.

Rams are 12-24 ATS on grass since 2001.

Opening Line: 49ers -9.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 4 NFL Pick: 49ers 17, Rams 13
Rams +10 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 37 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
49ers 35, Rams 0

San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)
Line: Steelers by 6.5. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Steelers -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Steelers -6.5.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same. Unfortunately, I have bad news to report. With a loss, Bo-Bo is now 1-2.

Bo-Bo didn’t just lose last weekend. He was utterly, utterly debaclized. Bo-Bo went down 92-50 with this starting lineup: Flacco/Owens/Austin/L.Robinson/Turner/Gore/Cooley/Akers/Vikings.

This is the third week in a row that Bo-Bo started Miles Austin-Jones. I don’t know what his infatuation is with Austin-Jones, but maybe he’s in love with him just like Jerry Jones is. Anyway, With Laurent Robinson and Frank Gore out, Bo-Bo’s dream of making the playoffs could be over.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Steelers are really missing Troy Polamalu. They allowed Cedric Benson to rush for 76 yards on 16 carries, and Carson Palmer was able to engineer two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to come back from a 20-9 deficit. Usually, it’s the Steelers who win in crunch time, but that’s not the case anymore.

The Chargers won’t be able to run the ball without LaDainian Tomlinson, but the Steelers will have to worry about Philip Rivers’ deep passes. Rivers burnt Pittsburgh deep in their playoff meeting, and that was with Polamalu in the secondary. Things will be easier for Rivers this time around.

San Diego’s problem on offense is the banged-up line. I’d like to say that Pittsburgh’s blitzers will get to Rivers often, but they managed only two sacks on Palmer and his pedestrian offensive front last week.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: San Diego’s problem on defense is the absence of Jamal Williams. The Dolphins, Ravens and Raiders all plowed through the Chargers’ front seven pretty easily.

Mike Tomlin would like to try and establish Willie Parker early, but there’s no guarantee that he’s even going to play. Parker is injured again (shocker) with a turf toe. Even if he suits up, he’ll struggle because that’s a tough injury to come back on in just one week.

Regardless, I don’t think the Steelers’ offensive line is talented enough in the run-blocking department to take advantage of San Diego’s liability. This means that Ben Roethlisberger will have to move the chains on his own once again. He should be able to do that as long as Limas Sweed isn’t dropping any easy catches.

RECAP: This seems like an even game to me, but why is the line so high? I guess people are assuming that the Steelers will be desperate for a win.

That’s a poor angle to take. The Chargers aren’t just going to show up and let Pittsburgh walk all over them. Remember, the Steelers swept San Diego last year and knocked them out of the playoffs.

With Polamalu injured and the Steelers having problems with run blocking, the Chargers will smell blood and go in for the kill. They hate Pittsburgh and would love to put them in a 1-3 hole.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is a must-win situation for the Steelers. Unfortunately for them, the Chargers are looking for revenge after losing at Pittsburgh in the playoffs last year.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

There was early money on the Steelers, but now the public loves the underdog.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 77% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Winning Coach: Mike Tomlin is 5-3 ATS following a loss as a favorite.

Steelers are 24-9 ATS in October since 2000.

Steelers are 10-5 ATS in October home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 50 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Steelers 23
Chargers +6.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 42.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Steelers 38, Chargers 28

Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
Line: Vikings by 4.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 3): Vikings -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 3): Vikings -4.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s Brett Favre versus the Packers! Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the Minnesota Superdome. Tonight, we have Brett Favre and the Packers against Aaron Robertson and the Vikings. This will be a great game, guys. I don’t like either team, so I don’t know who to root for!

Herm: Let’s look at the Brett Favre touchdown highlight! Let’s look at it! Let’s look! Here it is! Let’s look! Watch it now! Watch it! Here it is! Here it is! Now, here’s the key to this touchdown! Here’s the key! I have the key! Uhh… umm….

Reilly: Emmitt, what are your thoughts on Brett Favre? He has retired at least 10 times and is now back with the Packers. Luckily, I don’t have him on my fantasy team.

Emmitt: Brett Favre retirement and unretirement so many time, I done have lost my minds!

Reilly: It really is confusing, Emmitt. What about the Los Angeles Vikings? How good can they be with Aaron Robinson?

Emmitt: Aaron Rodgers is a good quarterback. He can throw the ball good. He can run the ball good. And he can very powerful. Very powerful.

Reilly: Herm, we have that highlight up for you. What were you going to say?

Herm: Watch the throw! Watch the catch! Watch the throw! Watch the catch! There’s the throw! There’s the catch! Watch the throw! Watch the catch! There’s the throw! There’s the catch! I’m going to tell you what’s so special about this throw! Here’s what’s so special! I know what’s so special! Here’s the key to it being special! Here it is! It’s… uhh… umm…

Reilly: We’ll be back after these messages!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I’m going to get dozens of hate mail for typing the rest of this sentence, but Brett Favre was pretty mediocre against the 49ers. He made some nice throws on third down and of course had that great game-winning strike to Greg Lewis, but Favre also nearly threw three interceptions, and I’m not counting the one that bounced off Bernard Berrian’s hands. On Minnesota’s penultimate possession, Favre fired a ball toward the sideline. Dre Bly cut in front of the receiver, but he bobbled the ball and dropped it. Had Bly caught the pass, he would have scored an easy pick-six. When this happened, some boos were heard from the crowd.

We know what happened after that. Favre had one of his magical moments and ripped the hearts of the 49ers. Favre’s carelessness will eventually catch up to him late in the season (just ask Jets fans), but what about on Monday night?

Well, maybe it won’t matter. Green Bay’s defense looked great on Kickoff Weekend, but has since struggled to defend the run. Cedric Benson and Steven Jackson have gained 4.9 and 4.3 yards per carry, respectively the past two weeks. The Packers were fully committed to shutting Jackson down last week with Marc Bulger out, but still couldn’t get the job done.

If the Packers had problems stopping Jackson with eight men in the box, how are they possibly going to prevent Adrian Peterson from embarrassing them? Peterson will likely rip off huge gains, setting up short-yardage situations for Favre.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers’ offensive line woes have been well documented. Two weeks ago, Antwan Odom came out of nowhere to sack Aaron Rodgers five times. The Rams even came up with some pressure early on last week. You can bet that Jared Allen and Kevin Williams will be breathing down Rodgers’ neck this entire game.

With Ryan Grant unlikely to muster anything on the ground versus the Williams Wall, Rodgers will be in plenty of third-and-longs. Minnesota’s secondary can be beaten, but Rodgers simply won’t have the amount of time in the pocket he’ll need to consistently convert third downs.

RECAP: The Vikings are a team on a roll right now playing with fire. The Packers, meanwhile, haven’t really been able to establish any sort of identity because of their horrific offensive line.

Minnesota should be able to win the battle in the trenches, which usually nets a positive result on the scoreboard.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big NFC North matchup. No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

About four-fifths of the public likes the Monday night host. Not much of a surprise.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 75% (224,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings (Packers 5-1 ATS).

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Packers 16
Vikings -4.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 46 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Vikings 30, Packers 23

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
Lions at Bears, Bengals at Browns, Seahawks at Colts, Giants at Chiefs, Ravens at Patriots, Buccaneers at Redskins, Titans at Jaguars, Raiders at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Live Dog: Jaguars +130 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$130

Live Dog: Broncos +130 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$130

Live Dog: Chargers +225 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Pyschological Edge Parlay: Colts -10, Browns +6, Dolphins +1, Broncos +3, Rams +10, Vikings -3.5 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

2009 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)